won't much of estee lauder's sales ultimately come back just with a lag >> yes, as you look at estee part of their business is retail and that's due to travel at airports and other corridors. our worry is some of that business will go away permanently. >> got it. because those passengers are passing through, ostensibly one time they will not come back by the way, those travelers as we know from the data are either not going or numbers have been cut a lot. have you been able to do any channel checks at all? i know it's probably a difficult situation. >> yeah, still very early. some of the data suggests there's more than 25% decline in passer-through traffic year over year on the first day of lunar new year afl travel in china is down 40% so it's having a significant impact on flow traffic. >> do you think there's any chance those numbers are conservative >> yes, i actually do think it is conservative. >> 25% down number was, i would imagine, a couple of days ago. things have arguably gotten worse and restrictions imposed by the government have gotten tighter. >> that's correct. the se

vashem last week that they will fight against anti-semitism and racism in every form well ronald lauder said he wants to see action and he wants to see tougher laws and the state really clamp down where it can against the hatred particularly seen online that leads people to then also acts and one example that one law decided to to me but not in his speech today was the attack in howler last october where we saw one man trying to enter a synagogue in germany trying to kill jews luckily failed to enter and then killed 2 innocent bystanders and there's a clear link for a lot of says from the hatred online that isn't being tackled enough and people then actually acting upon that talk with us a little bit more about germany's role specifically today especially given its role nazi germany in perpetrating the holocaust. well germany's president. the highest representative of germany was here today in the morning he received 3 survivors and they then came with him here to this commemoration on board the presidential plane this has to really be seen in context with the ceremony at yad vashem tha

absolutely correct it's placing the emphasis exactly where it ought to be when people like ronald lauder appeal for stronger penalties against anti semitic i trued says and actions on the one hand and education for the people i think those things are bull but they're not really the answer the answer is of course for in the peer group. people to influence their own peers and it's a simple sociological fact that the vast majority of new nazis around the world at the moment are young males in the early twenty's and so it is really important to put people in this group make it simply uncool to be racist and it needs to be needs of peer pressure and that it's really young people who are who are here have the real responsibility when governments try to have to introduce programs of education is often simply a sort of pushback against that there was also a sense that you know we all have a role here in society and i remember one of the survivors saying do not be indifferent when you see lies you know run a lot of highlighting the fact that you're a allowed the holocaust i mean there's a sense t

the i'm just semitic acts committed in europe and the president of the world jewish congress ronald lauder has been weighing in on this he's in auschwitz at the moment we asked for his thoughts on the rise in anti semitism here's what he had to say with preacher innovations go in. and young people don't and they see the internet and they react . and how we're going to try to go into sort of luckily and get it he killed 2 innocent bystanders but the thing is where to get it straight from the get of the internet he said he was sitting in his basement was the. control room going to be going through we have the structure and we can start to make it a point to build a fortress just told to do. hans germany has far more restrictive speech regulations than say the united states are lauder's expectations realistic about how much internet regulation can achieve well you can never be 100 percent. certain you can never control things 100 percent and the internet obviously doesn't make it easier for these kind of sentiments to be expressed partly because it's much more difficult to control the german

and here i'm talking about fabrizio freda, the genius behind estee lauder. he's the ceo not long ago we were worried exposure to hong kong because of the protest and the riots and the traveling masses may not spend. now that is something a lot harder to do when protesters are fighting with police all over the city but it turned out not to be a problem foresty lauder they were great. but given the coronavirus, i don't think you can stay great and the forecast may be cut. so how weak is estee lauder when they have selling cosmetics in a do-not-touch market. this is the most important company to listen to because the ceo is so thoughtful on friday we start with something that now seems quaint but used to be very important. and that is the labor department pay report we are looking for where boeing 737 max issues might be hurting employee or amazon's unbelievable quarter came at the sense of retailers and why the raises went up too much and the fed can't be accommodating but at least the government has our back if things turn bad at least financially. i know the

world jewish congress president ronald lauder says there is another reason survivors need to tell their stories now. are you concerned at the rise of anti-semitism over the past few years? >> i'm very concerned about it, because when i look at what happened and i speak to survivors, and they tell me how it started off very small. it got bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger. >> is that what you're seeing? >> i'm seeing that same thing. >> reporter: the survivors' numbers are dwindling. few will ever be back to this place. all that remains are the wires and the watchtowers and the ovens and their stories. >>> tributes are still pouring in from around the world for basketball superstar kobe bryant. as you likely know now, bryant was killed along with his daughter and seven others when their helicopter crashed in thick fog outside los angeles. in addition to being a basketball legend, bryant was writer and an inspiration to many, butis most important role was that as dad, as he explained to dana jacobsen. >> as you you've can see, we've got this makeshift memorial, keepsakes that are the

well i also had the opportunity to talk to lauder the head of the world jewish congress and he said that words would simply not be enough he wants to see more action and when he talks of action he means the internet because he says that the hatred comes from somewhere he would like to see government's crackdown on internet hate that is spread there those bubbles of hate and said that something like the attack and holler at the end of last year in germany were a man tried to enter a synagogue but luckily failed but 2 innocent bystanders being killed that was due to internet hatred that is something that is spreading and also the message here from the survivors in particular was that the opposite of love is not hatred it's indifference and it's the indifference to this hatred that many of them are more worried about now 75 years after than they were only a couple of years ago according to a few i spoke to chief political editor. in auschwitz thank you so much for bringing us back. or of course the breaking news just coming in kobe bryant the american basketball legend has reportedly died a

lauder founded the institution in the 1990 s. . his motive to encourage a renewal of jewish religious life in poland. we needed somebody to go to poland. i heard about this rabbi michael she's rich so we brought him over we saw him. and we said this is the right person was interesting is that the men. he became much more from would be much more polish there is to lead but which monica and stanislav were faithful to their jewish heritage even during the communist era as we had began before that you know we had as them they are watching early air and this money cause a book the 2nd one by the way of the summit there is there is some others involved on the research their jewish ancestry some 90 percent of the jewish population of poland was slaughtered during german occupation those few who survived often did so by adopting christianity. the old cemeteries are the sole witness to poland's extensive jewish population before the shoah. then to learn anything to do with and. feeling jewish and when we were children because we were not in

anyway, i brought estee lauder about a month or two ago at 193 and the stock soared up and then with the virus and everything coming out got downgraded and i sold some shares yesterday and i still have a little bit left i'm trying to figure -- >> no. hold on to the rest. i put this in the bull pen for my travel for -- dotcom and i'll tell club members, the moment you get the all clear and there is never a full all clear but we did a lot of work with ebola there will come a day of max pain where we'll be able to buy estee lauder and didn't mention 3m and that was a bad quarter. they were hostage to everything. >>> okay, the fundamentals today, they defeated the fear-mentals and thank you greg hayes and you could come on. even if we have to travel to one of your places which i would love to do regina, would you please let me leave this -- this office of mine and get to a factory of greg hayes'. thank you. not one but two rounds of players for the big game on sunday, find out i'm picking for underutilized position and let me improve your financial reality. and everyone own a sports team

born grown old lauder a patron of jewish spiritual life across the world. we need somebody to go to poland. i heard about this rabbi. when stole them initially the synagogue. 1919 it's name one. morning service at warsaw's author talks gnostic synagogue several 1000 people now belong to the country's jewish community. the fact that there is noise behind me because the people who are prayed are now having breakfast together is a sign that there is jewish life and that's in large part thanks to his tireless efforts organized from here in his office at warsaw's great synagogue. and never find what you want limited. when should rick started out they did not even have enough prayer books for everyone this is the 1st time that a new jewish prayer book was reprinted in poland after the fall of communism this is the regional pages from a few 26 this is probably from. 9192. today was so has a jewish school that is attended by more than 200 pupils educating the young generation is very important to shoot rick. joining me miska son and 2 daughters also attend the scho

world jewish congress president ronald lauder s

all at the opposite sides of the aisle, tyson foods the best performer up 67% beauty stocks, estee lauder and cody colgate palm olive has lagged. kraft heinz is down a whopping 27%. that's a soaking in ketchup. tony thinks one of these stocks is gearing up for a big staple smackdown. >> i'm don't get colgate palm olive here looking at a bearish stunt looking at late october. this stock broke below its 200-day moving average not only did it break below the long-term moving average, relative basis has started to deteriorate since then however, it has recovered just last week but got rejected to that level so this is a good opportunity, in my opinion, to start initiating a short if you also look at a relative basis, while the stock rallied during that last couple of months, the relative chart is actually going to make lower lows and printed a new 52-week low today. what this is telling me is there's likelihood this stock is going to continue to underperform the market going forward. however, the stock itself, the implied volatility, is quite expensive. to buy put options here are really expe

chanel, estee lauder and lush didn't respond. so what can we do as consumers?the wwf say boycotting palm isn't the way to go because so many people's incomes rely on it and the alternatives could be worse. but we can start checking the ingredients in what we use and look out for products that contain sustainable palm oil. if done sustainably it's helping the environment, and it's also helping the people that work for the company to live a better life. and if yourfavourite brand doesn't use sustainable palm oil, you could put pressure on them by asking them why not? palm oil isn't going away anytime soon, so it's up to us to decide what we do about it. since the palm oil trip and learning about what goes on behind—the—scenes, i think that has made me more conscious to actually look at what i am using, but also for the salon as well, that is really important, i would never have done that before. this time last year i was just maybe looking into cruelty—free and vegan and now it is like i am trying to make sure i am looking into what i am actually using. it's so d

tyson foods, the best performer in the past year, up 67% with beauty stocks, estee lauder and cody, not too far behind you have colgate palmolive which has lagged the sector, while kraft heinz is down a whopping 27%. that's soaking in ketchup, but tony thinks one of these stocks is gearing up for a big staples smackdown. what's the name and the trade. >> i'm looking at colgate palmolive because i'm looking at a bearish opportunity, looking in late october. this stock broke below its 200-day moving average not only did it break below the long term moving average relative basis has started to deteriorate. however, it's recovered back to the 200-day moving average last week but got rejected at that level. this is a good opportunity to start initiating a short if you look on a relative basis, while the stock rallied in the last couple months, the relative chart is actually continued to make lower lows, and actually printed a new 52-week low today. so what this is telling me is there's going to be a likelihood that this stock is going to continue to underperform in the market going forward h

you it was a happy new year for some stocks i looked today you've got ross, tj max, lowe's, estee lauder there are some e retailers doing extremely well what's wrong with this group of dogs i think like the regular clearance rag, sometimes it's there for a reason nordstrom is one that might be interesting. but for the most part, department stores, mall base d apparel store, very difficult places to be oliver, where do you see opportunities in retailers that have been beaten up? >> yeah, what we're excited about is target. we like the broad line retailers. the target pe multiple is about 17 times and walmart in the 20s. so on a pe basis, we like target relative to the eps growth they can generate as well as drive up and curb side pick up. we agree the mall, aparable, it's within a tough place to be and by fifurcation is also playg out in that we like value. the off price sector is good as well as costco because customers are looking for bargains also groceries and they need food grocery outlet is another one to consider as well but cautious beware on clothing, the mall, store closures ahe

eli lilly caught a downgrade >> sorry, estee lauder >> excuse me >> no downgrade for eli lilly.his is really important estee lauder during sars was not nearly as involved with asia, just wasn't as big a business. hong kong and china really represent the key growth drivers. opco downgrade, if you want to say what companies are going to bounce back the fastest that are in epicenter so to speak, it would be this one, because they've done remarkable work in travel but that's what's been curtailed, so let this one come down and then when you think it's low enough, make a move >> but china is an important part of their system >> growth venture. >> you've talked about it many times. >> those of you who feel like this is overdone and that we're being too dramatic, which i don't think we are if you think this thing is going to be contained, this one will snap back the best that's what i'm saying >> so this move down is coronavirus related. >> definitely. their quarter was really great i'm looking for companies whose quarters were great. some of the ashlz are great, some aren't. fa breeze

nike, estÉe lauder, all have operations in china.it is so bad they close their own stock market for an extra three days. the fact that the market is given up gains and we've been so bullish as gary said before, i take the next bu that it is dow. >> i don't disagree. i think what gary said, investors are looking for an opportunity to harvest gains that they had last year, this is the opportunity. were in the most fragile part of this right now, we don't know the extent of the disease and were talking about it becoming more contagious but nobody knows how it operates. we have a lot more to learn and that will happen over the next two or three weeks and the number of industries affected with the airlines and cruise companies, here's a whole lot of people who are a lot of companies will be affected by this. we have not yet had all the analysts come out and say they're either going to be 10% weaker as a result. but that's what's to come and then it will prove eventually to be a speed bump and will be looking again at earnings and earnings

ambassador rond lauder is president of the world jewish congress.i-semitism in th1920's and 1930's started very small. we see it building over the st six years and it is going to something about itss we do >> despite being exhausted by the odyssey from levittown, pennsylvania, david managed to sing a hungarian song, taught by airlfriend who helped him survive. he was dispatched in 1942. whenel thetion process began, the teenager pretended to be older than 18 to avoid being sent straight to rse gas chambe. like the souls memorialized here. she managed to convince the ess that he was fit enough for work details. at first he collected the bodies of prisoners who commi ed but then his captors heard about his voice and ordered him to entertain them. >> i only lived because of one word. music. and i sang a year-ish song -- yiddish song while in auschwitz. because the ss loved it. [singing] it wasn't my favorite song. >> 1930's jewish dance music serenaded her at her hotel in crack of. her story is not jus about death and murder. liberation meant rebirth.

i like estee lauder which was downgraded yesterday in hong kong and mainland china. need to see more estimate cuts before i pound the table again though, china may get the coronavirus outbreak under control faster than we expect. this doesn't have to be like sars or ebola. we're talking worst case scenario here. p markets don't always get hammered by the outbreaks do you remember the h 1 n 1 pandemic 12,500 deaths. this was a disease that started in the u.s it wasn't enough to derail stock market that was finally rebounding from the financial crisis we never really sold off on that zika virus despite hearing about it for most of 2016. i expect the ee fwobola scare i most likely. if that gets bad, expect the sharp decline. when you consider the history of the disease outbreaks, i think you want to avoid the airlines, hotels, cruise lines, casinos, and tourism dependent retailers here but that's just for the moment the coronavirus continues to spread and stocks get hit, then we have to think about buying the high quality names into weakness that i just mentioned i'm mo

if you hear warning to starbucks or estee lauder, won't you regret you tried to go bottom fishing hereely i think the make or break issue for our market is what happens many the united states if you start hearing the people who never went to china have come down with the disease. that's the most frightening possibility for investors and why i think any bounce is built on quick stand, like the temporary rebound this afternoon. even if with conviction, your fellow shareholders won't and you don't want to be there when they get shaken out by more headlines because they bought it down 1.89% believe me, the headlines could only get worse once we're no longer dealing with impeachment. or mourning the tragic death of kobe bryant and his young daughter so please, pick if you want, pick if you want on the way down, but please stay small for now. i think you're going to get a better buying opportunity lower. remember, it is been ages since we've had a big selloff. like i told you at the top, the market feels like the lead-up to the super bowl in 2018 when the employment number came in hot and we

we mentioned stocks down today estee lauder is one of them. downgraded today at oppenheimer.f of their top picks list talking about the krin affecting their travel related sector. >> if you like the company for the fundamentals and you have looked at it and you anticipate that you are looking to trade in and out of the stock over the next couple of months then i could see the downgrade here i think longer term you are not going to see a meaningful impact in that the acceleration of potential earnings in this particular stock is going to continue despite the fact that there might be near term disruption in the name. >> can you step in to.a wynner an lvs today. >>> wouldn't step in on a casino. >> another one that got downgrade of the at b of a coronavirus the headline for the reason why. >> we own sands. we bought it in june of last year on expectations of acceleration in the chinese economy as well as a shift from vip gaming into retail gaming. i think that that second piece, i do think that the reacceleration of the chinese economy is going to happen i think the second piece

ambassador ronald lauders president of the world jewish congress. >> remember anti-semitism in t 1920's and 1930's started very small and built up. we've seen it building over the last six years, amazingly, and it's gonna keep buildi unless we do something about it. >> reporter: despite being exhausted by the odyssey from levittown, pennsylvania, cantor david wisnia manag to sing a hungarian song taught by a girlfriend who helped him survive birkenau. cantor wisnia, of polish jewish heritage, was dispatched to birkenau in 1942. at the railhead when the selection process began, the teenager pretended to be older than 18 to avoid being sent straight to the gas chambers. unlike most of the souls memorialized by this sitary cattle truck. s.s. that he was for worke the details.ll at first he coted the bodies of prisoners whoommitt suicide. h but th captors heard about his voice and ordered him to tertain them. >> i only lived because... one word: muc. and i sang a ydish song while in auschwitz and birkenau because the s.s. loved it. ♪ bei mir bist du schoen it wasn't my favorite song. ♪ ♪

kind of give you a quick idea of what it was like, sergeant otto lauder man of the third missouri will actually take some time after water to reflect on this. he says this after they had been routed. one poor wheel driver got eight bullets in him and lived about an hour. the artillery horses rushed into an infantry column and we were a big crowd of men, horses, guns and caissons all mixed together all running to the south. they were done. the entire brigade had been routed. now, going back towards the northern end of the battlefield we have a series of multiple attacks on bloody hill. at this point -- so, again, this is from 6:30 in the morning up until 8:30 lyon gets established on bloody hill, he establishes his lines. he is first going to send out the first kansas and first missouri, they are kind of like their -- really his first troops that he sends out, they are some of his most reliable, they begin to push out and their goal is to really probe the southern positions just south of bloody hill. they just want to find out what the strength is like for the state guard. this he know

talk they did not do it michel i'm very curious to hear your reaction to what we just heard ronald lauder saying essentially saying that there's hate on the internet that it's you know a way of expressing the anti semitism of the of inspiring attackers or would be attackers he mentioned the incident in hala that happened germany last year where 2 individuals were killed outside of synagogue do you agree with what he had to say i mean how big do you see the role of the internet i agree think the internet is the wild west right now and you can do whatever you can write whatever you want on the internet and the governments at least in germany says it's the responsibility of big social media companies of. people who run the internet who run the internet. to look out if things are happening well or not well if they're final not fine but i mean in the for example taking the banks also not the banks are responsible to look after financial. financial like if people do something bad. q 4 financial crimes that's the. responsibility of the state so i think it should be the same in the internet. it's

sure you all understand just how fortunate you are today to be here, because you get to see david lauder with his hair combed, his beard trimmed and in a suit and tie. that's like a unicorn sighting here in washington, d.c. thank you for the invitation, seth. it's good to be here. i also want to thank the third silent member of the writing team, a gentleman named harrison tran, who happens to be one of the most deeply insightful operations analysts that i know. he did all the math because seth and i don't do math. why did we do this study? what caused it? someone just asked me that the other day. actually, somebody in the navy just asked me that the other day. a couple of things. number one, there was a 2018 ndaa, national defense authorization act that directed the navy to do something like this a study of its isr & t sufficiency, specifically one of the things that they asked for was that the study include operations in a satellite-denied environment, which i thought was interesting. to me it seemed if the congress were asking the navy to do such a study, smart people in congress were

retail segment could be adseriously impacted, and potentially longer onnen haimer removing estay leed lauderly connecting with the chinese consumer all over the globe. >>> meantime, guggenheim saying starbucks has the greatest exposure in china. matt defrisco, the analyst behind that note, joins us now to discuss star becomes tops the list in terms of exposure, is that right? >> yes they have a company operating model with almost 4500 strauss, so we still between 12% to 15%, even more importantly, though, they're looking to grow 2,000 stores globally, which about 30% of that comes from that market, china. so there's i think not only the immediate effect from consumer disruption, but also you have a potential ablaze in the growth -- >> has that already been priced in >> i don't think so, not yet they're going to report tomorrow we will find out more, on maybe an update the of the early cases of the consumer became chinese new year is a big time to spend more than they normally do it will be hard for them to get back all of those sales. >> what about mcdonald's how much are they going to get h

the one i am looking at is estee lauder very soon i'll tell people to pull the trigger very soon.wear makeup even if they're at home >> we'll see you tonight "mad money" 6:00 p.m when we come back the latest on the coronavirus and the impact on the global economy, global health dow uisp 101 still on pace for the worst week since late the worst week since late november. but we're also a company that controls hiv, fights cancer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression, restores heart rhythms, helps you back from strokes, and keeps you healthy your whole life. from the day you're born we never stop taking care of you. >>> good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. sara eisen is on assignment. market enjoying a day, dow up 112. solid intel, of course covering the coronavirus out of china containing the coronavirus the total number of people affected rising as u.s. businesses begin to close some store fronts overseas >> plus, stocks are hitting new record highs how investors should be preparing for what will be next week the

you're talking about marriott, united, estee lauder these are not touchable right now.looked at ebola. >> but ebola in terms of deadliness and sars, worse viru. >> yeah, but at the beginning everyone is really scared. we think this is going to be shorter duration now, just so you know, the comeback was so sharp that it actually paid to get in tomorrow the comeback was just -- there was so much shorting at the bottom that you had a reaction that was, boom so look at united. that is the one, i know we have gary kelly, but united is the one that i think could snap back the most other than marriott they were talking about hong kong being down. >> hong kong has its own set of problems the economy there has suffered. >> they're talking about basically a possible depression. >> yeah. >> all that said, there's a slew of upgrades today, including morgan stanley on ge, ups to overweight price target goes to 14. speaking of aviation, jim, they do all aviation best in class. >> right this is one where i think they're getting in shape for the inevitable comeback of the max, or else

worried about a lot of businesses that are in hong kong the one i'm most concerned about was estee lauder but the amazing ceo has managed to offset t some companies can. >> the home builders, depot, too, i should mention, out performing because the bar for the fed to tighten is so high? even though adp and we'll see what friday's job number brings. >> the orders are extraordinary, saying that the rates have definitely -- the rolling rates have definitely played a role. this is not the key selling season that will be in a few months but the margins are going up, too. because the raw costs are all down lumber is down a lot >> right >> you've got this kind of best of all possible worlds with rates coming down, buyers coming out of the woodwork which we didn't think would happen. >> inventory is tight still. >> inventory is tight. and then, yes, adp the employment numbers so, i mean, i guess in some ways it's -- you have that world, the fed is not going to tighten, housing is very strong, retail is very strong job growth is strong no inflation >> just remember the president does speak at 11:0

nike and estee lauder.coronavirus continues to threaten the global economy, they will take a hit to earnings of 3% to 5%. back to you. stuart: ouch. all right. got it. thanks, lauren. back to you, david. i've got to get your take on this virus. do you think it's a black swan event? >> this is absolutely what we would define as a black swan event. we really haven't had this priced in. again, we are trading at 18 times earnings. the market is somewhat priced for perfection so when you have these things that come out of what we call left field here, the market has to justify this somehow, and when you look at something like what we call more of a contagion effect or nesting effect, if individuals in china stop going out to public places, if they stop spending at retailers, that is absolutely going to be priced in to balance sheets and cash flow. so retailers need to be concerned here. we don't really know how far this is going to go but i think the way it looks right now, this is going to be a pretty brutal ru

we saw jared kushner, we saw new yorker ronald lauder, we saw, who else, michele bachmann was there, former member of congress, ron desantis is there, governor of florida. we also saw the majority leader heading into the chamber right behind where dianne feinstein was. and again, we've yet to see the chief justice take his chair. he is in a holding room, claire mccaskill, just off the floor, correct? >> correct. there are two sets of offices for the vice president, one is just off the reception area that we see that's so ornate. there's one in there, then his ceremonial office, literally steps from the chamber doors on the right. you can see the doors of it when they open that door. that's where the chief justice is hanging out. he will come from there. that's where they put him as they wait for the senate to come to order. >> claire, can i ask you, what is it like. i think this started with all eyes on the democratic caucus and democratic leaders, could they convince four republicans to be four witnesses and public opinion leaning that direction. what is it like when the tide turns