i'm leigh-ann gerrans.his is bloomberg. >> 65 is where one model sows we should go. the market is a balancing act. we're looking for 95 by the end of august. it could get to $.90 if germany has not built up enough gas storage. jonathan: jordan roach. it is for decision day. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. nasdaq up by 1.4%. euro showing some strength. 1.0148. yields lower, 2.7849. on the commodity side of things, no major damage, even with this headline, that wuhan has locked down one million residents. tom: it is not working. you wonder how that will fold into their domestic politics, pacific rim recovery that everyone is talking about. lvmh more adamant of the hip they took in china. futures up 1.4% on the nasdaq. vix, 24.33 thank you to the viewers who corrected me that perth is not on the west near the pacific ocean. nick bennenbroek is from wells fargo. without question, in the foreign-exchange racket, is the most acclaimed for predicting in the toughest asset classes. you and wel

i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg.if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create >> we forecast that growth in the euro area will slow down to 1.2% next year in 2023, but we highlight that in case there is a full shutdown of russian gas flows to europe. the downgrade could be much more severe by another zero point eight to two percentage point downgrade in terms of economic activity for the area. jonathan: at this point, anything in positive territory seems like a reach. the global gdp the imf has gone from 4.4 percent in january to 3.6% in april, down to 3.2% this year. you can see the direction of travel. tom: they are managing i

jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the "first word news," i am leigh-ann gerranseuropean union is preparing for the possibility of a full cut of russian energy supplies. they agreed to cut natural gas used by 15% through next winter. the rapid pace of the agreement reflects dwindling gas flow from russia. supplies are set to drop to around 20% of capacity. former president donald trump returns to washington today for the first time since leaving office. he will make a speech to aipac working an agenda for a possible second term and an aide folks -- says he will focus on public safety. the visit comes as the january 6 committee has been detailing his attempts to remain in power and his refusal to call off of a violent mob -- call off a violent mob of his supporters. business activities resumed and confidence also improved despite disruptions from covid outbreaks across the country. that is the outlook based on bloomberg segregated index -- bloomberg's aggregated index. general motors posted profits that were weaker than expected. gm maintains its guidance for the f

leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am leigh-ann gerrans. pelosi is said to leave on a trip to asia today. the question is whether she plans to stop in taiwan. reports she is considering a visit has drawn criticism from china which considers taiwan to be part of its territory. taiwan was one of the central issues discussed in a call between president biden and xi jinping. biden warns against using military action to keep taiwan aligned with the mainland. -- the goal was to target western audiences with content that showcased the best side of china. takedown -- tiktok turned down the request. it is owned by beijing -- he also told national public radio that the central bank had further to go in raising interest rates and getting inflation under control. bostick said how much rates go up depends on how much the economy will grow. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> consumers after two years of

i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president biden and xi jinping have told aides to plan an in person meeting. that is according to a u.s. official. two spoke on the phone for more than two hours yesterday. the call centered on taiwan. matters could get worse if house speaker nancy pelosi visits the island. beijing is warning of a firm response if that does happen. the biden administration has approved the sale of $8.4 billion in weapons to germany. the package includes fighter planes and cruise missiles. the state department made no mention of the war in ukraine, and it did say the sale would support a nato ally that is an important force for stability in europe. the euro economy has expanded. that comes at a time when inflation and a possible russian energy cut threatened to turn the region into recession. gdp rose .7% in the second quarter, but inflation set an all-time high in july. shares of intel are falling. the semiconductor maker/profit forecasts for the rest of the year. the ceo said intel needs more time to

i'm leigh-ann gerrans.s is bloomberg. ♪ >> the risks of doing too little are quite a bit greater than the risks of doing too much, so the will probably overdo it a bit because they have to be sure they will be successful in getting inflation back down to 2%. they will just keep tightening for a bit longer. tom: bill dudley with us yesterday on a superb fed show. next to our team for putting that together. the former president of the new york fed, it is a raging debate off of the economic data we just saw. the president with president xi right now speaks when? lisa: he speaks at 2:30 p.m. tom: they are managing a negative message on gdp. the headline for me is basically investment in america disappeared. i am sure that will be addressed in some form with the politics of the moment. we've got to note the tape goes up. radcom and al green on the screen, as we saw yesterday off the fed meeting. lisa: this sort of perverse dynamic where you see yields go down, price climb, and you certainly see that for the two-

leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerransncy pelosi is set to leave on a trip for asia today. the question is whether she still plans to stop in taiwan. reports that she is considering a visit have caused criticism from china. taiwan was one of the central issues discussed in a phone call between president biden and xi jinping yesterday. biden warned him against military action to reunify taiwan with the mainland. bloomberg has learned the chinese government did ask tiktok if it could open a propaganda account. the goal was to target western audiences with content that showcases the best side of china. tiktok turned down the request. tiktok is owned by bytedance. it has tried to distance itself from chinese government influence. in the u.k. rishi sunak has admitted he is an underdog in the race to be the next prime minister, he is vowing to fight -- to fight for every vote. the former chancellor admitted his pledge not to cut taxes until inflation is under control is not universally popular. this trust has promised to cut tax

i am leigh-ann gerrans.rg has learned the justice department is using a grand jury to investigate efforts by former president donald trump and his aides to overturn the election. the focus is on fake electors. no comment from the trump camp. bloomberg has learned chuck schumer has told he does not think there are enough votes in the senate to pass a big tech antitrust bill. the bill's cosponsors have maintained there are enough votes for passage. mercedes-benz has raised its outlook thanks to resilient slaes of -- sales of high-priced models. we spoke with the mercedes ceo. >> we are watching inflation. we are watching central banks' reaction to the inflation with interest hikes. something we have to be mindful about. we have not seen any reduction in demand for mercedes. demand for us, currently, is strong but it is something you have to have in mind and see how things develop into next year. leigh-ann: meanwhile, mercedes says 7% in the second quarter because of a lack of chips and other logistical issues.

i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i actually think that just the right thing to do is to raise taxes right now to take some of the demand out of the economy. jonathan: larry summers, always popular. the harvard university president emeritus. i don't think that is going to be popular at all. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.5%. yields higher by five basis points. 2.8032% on the 10 year. data out of europe not great. german business confidence soft, rolling over. we are positive there is a -- positive there 0.3%. maybe the big hikes aren't done with the first one. we could get another one in september. tom: the parlor game front and center today. i just look at the pricing and see west texas intermediate, certainly a welcome sign. opper, barely look at that today, but copper in stasis. e.m. stored of -- e.m. sort of stasis on a heat wave may be ending across the coast this morning. annmarie hordern is in it, 1600 pennsylvania avenue, and joins us cool, calm and collected this morning. you try to figure ou

that's leigh-ann gerrans with the latest on the heat waves. two italy, where the prime minister mario draghi is under pressure to reverse his pledge to resign and avoid chaos as economic warning signs are building. we are joined by bloomberg's rome bureau chief, alessandro, it is a crucial week for italy and heading into the ecb decision, what are we expecting and do we have any indication of what draghi will do? >> good morning, good morning. if you read the papers, you would think there are signs from draghi's staff. the situation is still very much in flux. there is pressure on him to reverse course on the decision to resign. there is a very fractious coalition. the five star party which triggered the crisis appears closer to splintering between those who want to stay in the government and those who want to go back to the coalition. the right-center is blocked, they are pushing for an election because they feel an opportunity to get back into party -- to get back into power. dani: alessandro, thank you so much. we had our mliv survey showin

here is leigh-ann gerrans. h-ann: russian troops are coming closer to their goal of taking over ukraine's donbass region's. ukraine forces withdrew from a key city. meanwhile ukraine will unveil a blueprint for rebuilding the country. it is expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. prices expected to raise in the next three months according to a survey from the british chamber of commerce. it is likely to climb further as firms pass on higher energy and wage goals. china is working to quash a new coronavirus outbreak that could spill over into one of its economically significant regions. authorities have locked down several countries in attempts to keep the virus from spreading in the river delta region. senate democrats: president biden to repeal tariffs putting place by the trump administration. in a newspaper opinion piece senator tim kaine of virginia says the tariffs have changed china's trade practices and are contributing to higher prices for americans. tim kaine called the duties direct taxes on

leigh-ann gerrans now, weekly segment, travel tips. manus: rogers said it is all about inflation.o the summer of discontent, higher wages at a time when central banks are trying to raise interest rates. we have cpi later today. ♪

david: leigh-ann gerrans, joining us straight out of london, live.e just a cup of that last point she mentioned. probabilities, looking back at history and the data, the winner of the first round of voting is not the one that automatically gets elected. since 1965, most backed candidate in the first ballot has 1, 6 times out of 10. so it doesn't necessarily follow here. rishaad: it is something to watch for. let's move onto the first word news and have a look at the fed governor christopher waller. he says he supports raising interest rates 75 basis points this month, and probably 50 basis points next month, on fears of recession due to higher borrowing costs, and he is stressing the urgent need to tame inflation. he is a voting member of the fomc this year. >> we need to move to a much more restrictive setting in terms of interest rates and policy, and as quickly as possible. i am definitely in support of doing another 75 basis point hike in july, probably 50 points in september and then after that, we can debate whether to go back down to 25 or if

on bloomberg and on bloomberg quicktake, i'm man guerin's. -- i'm leigh-ann gerrans.if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done. ♪ ♪ it's electric... it's e made extraordinary.e an a ingenuity... in motion. it listens, learns, adapts and anticipates your every need. with in

i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. >> this is not an economy in recession but inflation is way too high. the fed is charged with putting in place policies that will bring inflation down. i expect them to be successful. tom: the secretary-treasurer of the united states jared -- janet yellen speaking the message on nbc this sunday. lisa abramowicz and i are thrilled to give you a different view. it has been an intellectually interesting monday at surveillance. we have had some optimism out there, a lot of measured views of a measured recession. i have talked about the rigor this weekend and looking at tpi, which he thinks is complete bolly as well. what was it like when he walked into his office at yale university decades ago? >> he was the one who hired me, so he has been a great intellectual friend. and mostly right. tom: you two have an old worldview. what is the old worldview of this recession, this slowdown we are in where maybe it is a mega threat, this new world, it is all going to be fine? >> t

laughter] >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerransere's a deal that breaks the long dead lock on major parts of president biden's economic agenda. senator joe manchin and joe schumer have agreed -- and chuck schumer have agreed on a 15% minimum corporate tax and would allow negotiated drug price cuts. a u.s. aircraft carrier and other navy vessels have entered the disputed south china sea at a time of rising tensions between washington and beijing. china is unhappy that house speaker nancy pelosi may visit taiwan, which china considers part of its territory. president biden and china's leader xi jinping are expected to speak on the phone today. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken plans to speak with his russian counterpart about a deal to free imprisoned basketball star brittney griner and another jailed american. the u.s. would swap them for a russian arms dealer it holds. the kremlin says there is no deal yet. shell has reported record profits for the second quarter in a row. the company also announced it would i back a further $

shery: leigh-ann gerrans with the latest on the policy.he implications with david finnerty. should i say the lack of market implications? is the focus on the economy why u.k. politics and the drama ongoing right now doesn't seem to have moved assets as much as some had expected? >> yes, it focuses on the u.k. economy. yesterday, boris johnson resigned. if you think about it, with so many resigning, that it continued, the government couldn't effectively work or operate. so it is a relief that has happened. also you have positive hawkish comments coming from the bank of england saying we may frontload rate hikes. and the sentiment of u.s. equities rallying. but certainly moving forward, you have to think next week, the attention will turn back to u.k. data and how the economy is performing. gdp data coming out. if it shows a decline month over month. it doesn't bode well for the economy. u.k. business confidence at a 15 month low. consumer confidence at a record low. and it has come out and said it viewed work -- if russia continues to cut t