lennar's stock is up about 60% in the last 12 months. housing appears to be strong ap applications for a mortgage to buy a newly built home in august were up 20% year over year according to the nba. in q2, lennar's chairman said buyers were getting used to the new normal in interest rates but rates were below 7%, approaching 6 at one point. then they shot up over 7% in june. we'll see how much that hit demand in q3 and potential sellers for lennar. >> all right. we'll look forward to your reporting in "overtime" when lennar hits the tape. speaking of hitting the tape, adobe also reporting after the bell. days after fellow software company oracle cratered on disappointing guidance. what about now? is this a risk? we watch chips sort of some of the chips starting to pull back. oracle, software, starts to pull back. we're wondering what's going to happen with adobe. >> could be risk. adobe has outperformed on a year-to-date basis. it was an ultra favorite of the software kind of mini bubble back in 2021, and it got just destroyed off of tha

what do we think of lennar? to have to give a sell, and i was a little turned because the valuation is very attractive, with a forward pe of around 13. however, there's plenty of macro headwinds that makes me cautious about this stock. hence why we're being sellers. and look, in this most recent quarter, revenue was down, even though deliveries was up, and that's because right now, buyers of homes are a little bit conflicted where interest rates are, and lennar has to give away a little bit on price, which has been impacting their margins. and right now, when buyers are looking at homes, they're saying, do i buy now at these high rates or wait for rates to come down? even though there's this demand-supply imbalance, we really don't want to be exposed right now to home builders when there's still a little bit of this interest rate drama. lennar is a great company, and this would be one of those we might void for now and just wait for a little bit more clarity on rates and some of these imbalances to play out. >>

look at lennar. the prior high back in december of 2021 was $117ish. it's not consequence dental, here we are at 117. we broke out, we're testing the prior all-time high. you look at the quarter, $3.87 was even higher than the highest whisper number on the street. a very good quarter. but to your point, are rating going to start to catch up to these stocks? last couple weeks say yes. this is huge support in lennar. >> i think the best days for the housing stocks are behind them. doesn't really matter to me, i get the builders are seeing demand and they're going to behave differently than the housing market. if you have ground velocity in the housing market to almost zero because people can't move, wontd move, won't pay a new mortgage price, i get that the home builders are making up that, and it is an apples and oranges, but the pricing across housing markets, i think, are going lower. all we do is talk about the consumer being strapped, too. i think it's been a great trade off of an expectation that rates were going to be higher, so, housing stocks in

i appreciate it. >> what's the takeaway from lennar?le about these stocks it was all about the low supply that was keeping things strong. >> actually, it's really more the strong demand keeping things going. and the builders are offering incentives. mortgage rate buydowns and arguably a net price decrease and better value than existing. with respect to lennar, all the stocks are selling off. i've been doing this for 30 years and to see the stocks actually go up when the ten-year is backed up as much as it has has been somewhat shocking. in all fairness with the economy as strong as it is and wage growth great and we see household formations, we still see strong demand despite rates rising. their decline in home price was due to their focus going down in home price. i think the fundamental quarter was very strong. >> you think it's worries about margins on prices? >> i think it's just overall worries about the backup in rates and the impact it has on affordability. the market is starting to appreciate that affordability is under pressure

last night they were reporting that adobe and lennar did not give us a world-beating report. now we have one of the more outrageous weeks of the year coming up. i have to be the only one who is worried about what powell will say ahead of the next big meeting. i make that point because i'm simply not seeing enough evidence that it has been changed to where he would have to change the language he is using. powell is much more worried about stopping inflation. he is swimming against the tide when we talk about whether inflation is still trending low. you see, the price of crude has snuck up again. with the sky high cost of fuel, it might get embedded into the system. i don't know if that is enough to change the fed actions, but it gives him more reason to stay hawkish in his statement and in the following q&a session. there is plenty that is going right, but i do get worried when nobody else seems to be afraid of an upcoming fed meeting, where the central bank could take a harder line than most people expect. so what is coming? for a long time it was one of the best ways to make

>> these stocks are all in a tenuous technical position in particular dr horton and lennar.he peak in the earnings cycle for the home builders. i think that's fair. it extended way beyond what we understood that it could going into the spring of 2023. but i think in the spring of 2023, that was really the strongest moment for these home builder stocks, and i think they're moderating a lot of the gains they've been. i think there's been an overwhelming surprise about the outperformance, and i think now you have to lower your expectations and we're at this critical technical point. >> we have general mills, by the way, on wednesday. kevin, you trimmed that stock. why? >> i like the name. still a 1.5% position but the price action has been horrible. it still has one of the better multiples in the space. we own procter & gamble. they did beat on top and bottom line but there was concern moving forward and i'm fearful we may see something similar. >> darden, you have that in the t. >> there have been challenges as it relates to chicken prices. challenges as it relates to dairy pr

lennar had the beat on the top and bottom line and traded down after the results and what does kb lookician 101 line in the sand and you have what we call a neckline, a shoulder ahead and a shoulder so what happened we had strong volume here on the left shoulder. this is good and broke out the stock up 47% year to date and having a tremendous run and yeah mortgage rates continue to be very high and we had precedence and you had lennar last week and they had their earnings out. they traded lower and they broke down to the 2 hun-day moving average and right now with this setup given how the stocks have acted in the sector and given the run and given the setup, i see technically, i think this 47 1/2 and 48 level while it held so far today and friday rallied from there, despite earnings it could break down and then, you know, head and shoulders top, you have an easy calculation and then you add that seven points and you subtract it from the neckline and 2 hun-day moving average, 242 and that's a safe assessment on the pullback and maybe a better entry point if you still believe in the long

but there's a number of brokerages that boost lennar numbers.ennar reported and no one seemed to care. i thought it was a good quarter. i think you've got going against -- going against the potholes is that there's labor. there is labor. there are jobs. lennar said, look, we have trades. we can build things. so, that's good. but the potholes are real. everyone's so convinced that the fed is -- it's either done or it's ready to just skip. i don't see it that way. we do not have a loose labor market. we don't. now, it's true that you can find workers and that's positive. and i think people have to go back to work because of student loans, but i don't think it's clear that the fed might be done this year. i would not say that. >> really? >> no. geez, i think that there's still a head of steam here. >> impact to the strike that we've just spent the last five minutes talking about? >> even morgan stanley on friday said, probably going to keep them on hold at least this month. >> look, i was listening to shawn fain, and that was fightening. that was j

lennar is too well run to have a true debacle. even with the mortgage rates. worry phase of the market on friday because next week is the fed meeting. if we get macro numbers too hot, cpi, ppi, and retail sales, ban will be back in play. the fed are waiting just like we are. if they're okay, they can skip this time and makes me feel more sanguine about the market. what else? bottom line, interest rates stabilizing and a break in the relentless oil rally. both could happen and if that's the case, declines will reverse so radically, you better hope you can do some -- >> buy buy buy! >> dan in minnesota. >> caller: how are you? >> i'm doing well. beautiful day here, happy you called in, how can i help? >> caller: i love it. my dad, jimmy, started his first restaurant at 17 in austin, minnesota, home of hormel. we've been a big supporter of their products and stock. but we haven't seen it this low since '18. nice move up in q-1 of 2022, past 50, now stuck around the high 30s. what are you thinking about it? >> so glad you called me. i happened to look at the stock

last week reported strong earnings and the stock dropped immediately because lennar reported lowering hard. >> no doubt about that i'm looking at consumer discretionary and down 1% and diana olick, thank you so very much a number of retail stocks are selling off today, speaking off discretionary, gap, kohl's, burlington among the hardest hit in the session evercore saying it's time to play the space defensively highlighting costco and walmart as one of its top picks. >> costco and walmart are just kind of when you're worried about the consumer, that's the place you go a lot of things are piling up. we all know everyone's trying to run the student loan repayment through their numbers and gasoline prices where they are everything you're seeing kind of pop up seems to move in the direction of, there's going to be less to go around ford discretionary and intentions for holiday spending not that encouraging and even though we're a couple of months out and it usually doesn't necessarily follow and i just think it's a tough time right now to feel as if this is the moment to start taking risk

lennar said last week -- a lot of brokerage houses raised numbers.ennar today almost a de laid reaction we just don't have enough homes. we have this huge millennial bulge, and there's just no doubt about it they will not be deterred by these rates. that doesn't mean they won't be deterred by higher rates these rates, according to stuart miller who i think is the dean of the group and executive chairman of lennar aren't detouring anybody. you have fewer homes you have the one thing that is up 40% since 2019, not in the cpi because only vent in the cpi. hents could come down. there's been overbuilding of apartments david, if you're jay powell, i think you're ready to talk tough. >> he'll keep talking tough. saying 2% is the focus, 2% is where we're going. >> a bad month >> i do wonder, we don't talk as often about qt, but it continues at a fairly significant rate 9 trillion, could go as low as 6? i wonder about the impact over time some say it's worth 25 to 30 basis points in tightening. >> good point, and he knows that >> and on asset prices as well

lennar, nikola, and keep our eye on the strike when we come back.biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪ good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ >>> take look at the premarket here. you'll see some weakness in t

we get earnings after the bell from adobe and lennar. a.r.m.from the ecb is due at 8:15 a.m. this morning. a busy day. we are in the final hours before the auto workers contract expires at 11:59 p.m. eastern. the union has been negotiating with gm and ford and stellantis on a four-year deal. uaw president sean fain said the company s have increased wages between 17.5% to 20%. in a live stream, he said the sides remain far apart. the uaw is prepared to strike at a limited number of factories. >> we are still very far apart on the key priorities. to win, we are likely going to take action. just as we approached negotiations decifferently thann the past, we are preparing to strike these companies in a way they have never seen before. >> in a statement, ford ceo jim farley said we put four offer on the table since august 29th and each has been generous, but they have yet to receive a genuine counteroffer. the future of the industry is at stake and he wants to avoid a disastrous outcome. let's talk more about the impact of the potential uaw strike w

oracle, adobe, lennar, dreamforce, the apple event, barclays financial conference and, of course, the expiration of the uaw deal on thursday. going to keep us busy. >> we'll talk to the ceo of barclays, hasn't done a lot since taking on ceo. the bank, the business and the economy. >> let's get to dom chu in for the judge. >>> thank you, carl. thank you, sara. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm dominic chu in for scott wapner today. front and center this hour, was this week a turning point for the markets? and what's in store for investors as we head deeper into what has historically been one of the weakest months of the year. our investment committee is here to help navigate you through all of it. joining me for the hour bryn talkington, steve weiss, and here on set shanion saccocia and jason snipe as well. where we stand at noon eastern time. a mixed market overall. the dow industrials up a quarter of a percent, just around 67 points. you can see the s&p up a similar percentage amount, 4454, and the nasdaq composite 13,804. and, by the way, the ten-year note deal, because the inte

. >> little refi coming back >> go back to lennar too refi, absolutely >> with a 30-year fixed at 7.31% there's -- i know. well, one of the things that lennar was telling me is that the consumer is ready to pay more, and understands they have to pay more. at the same time, they only build 1.2 million houses that's like a fraction of what we need. we need two million houses in order to get the price down. we're missing 800,000 houses but there just isn't enough land the environmental issues david, it's hard to build a home in this country. >> it is interesting "journal" story today that it's also -- even those big institutional owners of homes, invitation homes being number one, i think, having a hard time these days buying new ones and in fact, have been selling some out of their portfolio because it makes sense to do so. because you can sell at a so-called cap rate that's very low. >> what's happened is that, let's say you bought a hundred-acre parcel, and you would do ten-acre single family, which is huge. the hold-up is endless endless. >> yeah. >> so, i mean, this is not something -

looking at the movers, let's start with homebuilder lennar down 3%.mped 37%, but home prices fell in order to sell homes. stock is down 3% despite good news. stuart: paramount merge moving up or down? lauren: potential new talks for the first time in weeks between the studios and the hollywood writers next week. stuart: that would be good. shake shack. lauren: they say stock is going up $20-$85 a share because foot traffic is improving. stuart: thank you. there is been a big shift. i'm fascinated by this one. there's been a major shift in workplace culture. fewer people are going out after work to mingle with their coworkers. madison alworth is at a bar in new york city, they serve breakfast. why are people skipping the bar and heading straight home after work? >> this bar has been open since 9 a.m. you can get your drink anywhere. new yorkers and workers across the country are skipping the after our drinks because they want to keep their work life and personal life separate and the other thing is they are more interested in just getting home, they do

lennar down 5 pe%. even the home builder's etm is off 3.5%. some concerns about mortgage rates.chmark treasury note yoelds are ticking higher. the home building trade, kelly, some of them have had to discount or provide incentives to sell homes, the new construction projects. a lot of things are brewing right now. i'll send it back to you. >> talking a lot today about trend reversals. dom, thank you very much. >>> goldman starting off the week with a bold call on the economy. the bank's chief u.s. economist is placing the chance of recession in the next year at just 15%, down five points from the prior forecast. they also say the fed won't raise rates this month and could be done hiking all together. this comes as christopher waller told steve liesman this morning, it was a hell of a good week of data. by good data, he means mostly bad. that brings us to today's opening exchange. are we in a sweet spot where we can avoid a recession, or are we celebrating prematurely? for more, let's bring in chief economist mark zandi with steve liesman. welcome to both of you. steve, let's sta

stuart: lennar, home builders -- lauren: they're down sharply across the board.iths are going up, maybe that's worryliesome that mortgage rates stay where they are now and makes homes unaffordable for so many americans. stuart: significant losses right there. let me check the overall markets. we still see some red, but it's the not as bad as as it was earlier. the dow is off 47, and and we now have the nasdaq turning higher. it's up 202 points and the s&p's up 3 -- 20 the points. scott shellady is with me on the phone morning. we could see the auto workers go on striking in less than two weeks. biden says he's not worried. what say you? >> welsh, he should be worried because, a, it could cost the the economy a lot of money however long that strike goes on. we're seeing that happen in other areas of the economy now. but, b, if it does get solved, stuart, that's wasted money, right many if you're just going to pay somebody more for not doing more, that's not helping production. and that's what everybody misses here. so if we start to pay these people more, that's g

earnings after the bell, you have lennar, a big focus, and united auto workers contracts with the bigpire at midnight new york time. i find it fascinating the compare and contrast with what is happening here. layoffs, can't sell enough ev's because of the fact of government subsidies have and removed, particularly on the corporate side. then you have the uaw looking at a strike. it tells a story i think of a different labor market on either side of the atlantic. the labor market is loosening up in europe. we do not have the same story over here, demand beginning to fall different in the united states. alix: i have to wonder how much is straight up an ev thing. any energy transition needs the subsidies if you get rid of the subsidies the demand is not there in the short-term. . at is why we have the rebates in the u.s.. what do you do with the workers that are not going to be transitioning? you look at the coal industry when call became a dirty word and you had to shut everything down and it became the process and that is where a lot of unemployment and hardships have happened here in

lennar will tell us whether they're beginning to overbuild.he home-building stocks are saying the home builders are overbuilding. that's how you get the price break is a buyer strike. that's what i'm counting on to get housing not back to -- it was up 40% from 2019, you're not getting that back to where it was, but if it could just turn to being, say, down, well back a quarter of that, then the fed is golden. that's what we want. we want the pressure off the fed. >> there's also this interesting survey out of red fin this morning, guys. one in ten sellers are listing because they have been called back to the office. >> whoa. oh, man. i had lyft on last night. he said their business, up 18%, why? because the commuter is back. now, david, you've been commuting for years, so it really hasn't directly impacted you, but do you see more people on the subway? >> a few. yesterday was very crowded. yes, i have noted the middle of the week, in particular, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, tends to be busier. and has become even busier post-labor day. i thin

oracle, adobe, lennar, dreamforce, the apple event, barclays financial conference and, of course, thes busy. >> we'll talk to the ceo of barclays, hasn't done a lot since taking on ceo. the bank, the business and the economy. >> let's get to dom chu in for the judge. >>> thank you, carl. thank you, sara. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm dominic chu in for scott wapner today. front and center this hour, was this week a turning point for the markets? and what's in store for investors as we head deeper into what has historically been one of the weakest months of the year. our investment committee is here to help navigate you through all of it. joining me for the hour bryn talkington, steve weiss, and here on set shanion saccocia and jason snipe as well. where we stand at noon eastern time. a mixed market overall. the dow industrials up a

will their trends be holding up better, do you think >> lennar did so well next week and why is home they broke it out for me and they said 12% of this sentiment index is the big production builders and over 100 homes per year. so they broke it up for me, very nice of them and actually that 12% said their sentiment was also 45, and that doesn't speak well going forward and we're looking at past quarters when they were making deals when rates were down in the 6% range going forward and will they be able to hold that up especially with the bold cases has been this growing market share thing where they say the smaller players struggled with financing and with the crept thing in this environment and that might suggest they stay on their back foot a little bit. >> especially if they have incentives and buy down rates. >> tiediana oleec. it ain't helping the stock much in today's session that's still in the red and while my next guest has a buy, he says selling its tv business is key and the time to do so is now we'll talk about that next and a quick programming note, don't miss a cnbc spe

. >> well, lennar, modestly under pressure despite the home builder beating estimates during the third quarter. ceo stewart miller pointed to short housing supply that's continuing to define a strong sales environment, but also noted that home builders are using incentives, including buydowns, to draw buyers in as rates stay high with mortgage demand at the lowest level since 1996. nucore also taking a hit. the steel maker now expects to earn between $410 and $420 per share while analysts were looking for $457. the company cited lower pricing as the primary reason as well as lower volumes. that stock down nearly 6%, scott. >> okay, pippa, thank you. we'll see you in just a bit. we are just getting started here on "closing bell." up next, nasdaq under pressure in today's session. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry

take a look at the home builders, pulte and lennar among the laggards.ion to the nail etf. we are less than month away from delivering alpha. cnbc's investor summit where the street's top investors and business leaders break down where they see risk and reward. you can always scan this qr code or just visit cnbcevents.com/delivinlp r re.ergaha it's going to be a good one this year. back after this. nley is partnerg with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. >>> about an hour into trading this morning. the indices not moving on a headline level. just south of 4500 by 1 point, but the sector wise not a pretty picture at all. all sectors red except for energy which is having a day after the saudis extend some of their voluntary production cuts. you're looking at a decline of 1% plus, sara, in materials, in industrials, and utilities. we talked about what housing is doing today as well. >> you have the mix of weaker cyclicals on the weaker data but higher treasury yields putting pressure on tech as w

there's something that i wish that jay powell had said, which was on the lennar call, stewart miller'sg group. he said, people respect that a house is going to cost more, so they have to act now. he has to break that, powell. he has to make it so you feel like, you know what? i better sell now, it's going lower. right now, it's, i better buy, it's going higher. and until that ethos changes in our country, you are not going to see a fed that is a dove. it's going to stay a hawk. >> that's interesting. you've talked a lot about food inflation this week. >> terrible. >> callan with a note today about udson, smucker and campbell, about why volumes are not going positive and they're making up for it on price. >> good luck. costco is kind of wrecking the price structure. a lot of these branded products, with the premium brand, which is kirkland, and i feel like walmart, costco, and amazon are price cutters here. by the way, fedex, price cutter to some degree, and yet still takes a lot of share because 400,000 packages today because of the u.p.s. strike. didn't strike. sorry, the negotiations

we'll get earnings from oracle and adobe and lennar.monthly reporters for earnings this week and i think that's going to move things a lot and move into the fed meeting on september 20th coming up. the issues are the higher rates we've had and the higher oil wear seeing right now. just want to note here the energy, up 3.5% this month, one of the only real leaders out there. banks down 3%. on this nasdaq ipo this week on arm holds, david, the valuations are 48 to 52 billion. you heard they're going to try to push it towards the high end of the valuations, perhaps $51 and above. we'll see if they can get that. the important thing is a lot of the etf providers out here are going to be forced to buy this, depending upon where the valuation comes in. as i said if you get a free flow below 10%, some of these etfs won't be able to buy that. it's in their regulations. right now this is looking like 9.5%, somewhere around there. people are scrambling trying to figure out exactly what free float is going to be. more on this with jan vaneck later

the apple event, cpi, ecb, oracle, lennar, adobe, barclay's financials conference, dreamforce. >> i thinkhat marc benioff is going to tell a very good story at salesforce. i think adobe, we had so many numbers raised ahead of time, they're probably going to do good. >> upgrade at mizuno. >> i think oracle has become the star of the show. katz was here. it's up a quick 11. i think that they have cemented their relationship with jensen huang. yeah, that's a nice move. cemented their relationship with jensen huang, the ceo of nvidia. everyone tries to be in the picture with nvidia. it is very funny. jensen huang is a very cool guy with his motorcycle jacket. all you want to be is in a picture with jensen and your stock goes higher. he's an incredibly modest man, so this must be terribly embarrassing to him. but he does make the rounds. and he has endorsed arm like you wouldn't believe. twice. >> i imagine you were annoyed at the coverage of his stock sale yesterday. >> yeah. >> $42 million is less than -- a fraction of 1% of his holdings. >> the man has built -- look, he was in oregon state'

two earnings report after the bell is adobe and home builder lennar. >>> we are watching shares of hpaled in a filing yesterday it sold 5.5 million shares of hpq for $158 million. that reduces the stake below $2.3 billion. no word on why berkshire sold. the share price has fallen 19% since berkshire revealed an unexpected $4.2 billion stake in the company. that stake was revealed and yesterday, they sold a portion of it. that was over three days. monday, tuesday and wednesday they had to file because they owe more than 10%. joining us with her top picks and what she thinks about the market is stephanie link at hightower. stephanie, before we talk about the three top picks, let's talk about the a.r.m. ipo. it is capturing the attention of the market. it is a huge ipo. if you are looking at pricing, it is relatively expensive. the only other one that was more expensive was nvidia. what do you think about a.r.m.? >> it is an interesting story. 20 times revenue. i think the important more than aspect here is less on the stock and more on activity in capital markets which is starting to pi

we are watching shares of lennar as well. beating estimates.arply from the same quarter a year ago. revenue fell because of lower home prices. the company's co-ceo said rising interest rates were continuing to aid home builders with more expensive mortgages making people reluctant to sell. we are sitting on things boosting the demand. >>> new york city rents could reach peak prices, but residential leases are low. joining us with more is bill rudin. he is the chairman of rudin management company. he oversees the portfolio of 15,000 square feet of residential and commercial property. >> good morning. >> it is back to business. traffic has been horrific. you see people everywhere. my daughter was in a building wednesday here on 42nd street and every office was dark as she walked through the building. people are not back in all buildings. i know in some buildings, it is strong in that "a" class. what is happening? >> in the midtown class in class c building has occupancy back up. average around 70%. that's a positive thing. you walk around the str

lennar project wasn't, you know, like although maybe it was in the past century, but we're not talking0 years ago. it hasn't been cleaned up yet. so when it comes to an eir, i totally understand the community's sentiment and the activist sentiment. people like myself as to whether or not we should trust this so i would like to propose those to have a more thorough eir, in particular with respect to all the possible issues, noise like pollution, environmental safety that was actually brought up, i was actually pleasantly surprised that it was brought up that these are the issues and this is how we're going to mitigate it. now is the mitigation going to take care of these issues? that's what we need to focus on, and that's why i'm here to encourage, urge to postpone any kind of affirmative action on this, any kind of approval of this, and have a more thorough look into that particular this is the first thing after you have come back from your recess . i think the community, once they find out the impact, they are going to be just as as pissed off as my fellow residents of san francisco t