jonathan: can i turn to lisa abramowicz to get the latest on what we expect over the next four hours? [laughter] through the day ahead, please. lisa: it is interesting, especially as the data gets worse in terms of the labor market in the united kingdom. 8:30 am theting at initial jobless claims, as well as the continuing claims, which i am watching closely to see whether the optimistic read on the jobs report will read through. also, 1:00 p.m., democrats in the house unveil an infrastructure proposal, and a 3:00 p.m., president trump is meeting with governors to discuss reopening of small businesses. very interested in what he has to say about the book john bolton wrote. also, i look ahead to his rally in tulsa, oklahoma tomorrow. election season really heating up in the u.s., heading towards another crosswind in the difficult market. jonathan: nobody is happy with mr. bolton. we will catch up with mr. cirilli in about 10 minutes. i want to start with kate moore, blackrock strategist. can you tell me whether traditional approaches matter anymore in a world dominated by monetary polic

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. monday, pouring freezing cold water on a v-shaped recovery hope. friday,lly started on and that is exactly where my reading was this weekend is the direction of the v-shaped i think was 30 days down, 30 days up. weekend werer the absolutely fascinating about the complete over that mystery starts with the job report on thursday. did you know it is a holiday shortened work, having -- shortened work week, having to do with the freedom of the colonies? jonathan: you will have to explain that one to me. it must have been a class i may have missed. we are looking at the direction of the coverage, arguably still positive. the pace of the recovery is what is being questioned at the moment. lisa: tom was right to bring up the jobs report. report a daybs early for the mother to -- for the month of june ritika: interesting -- for them of the june. interesting to see if people think the fed is reaching. we have jay powell testifying tomorrow before the house financial services committee. on wedne

tom: let me bring in my colleague lisa abramowicz. lisa?ne thing i'm struggling to understand is how quickly ridership has to get back up to near where it was in the past in order for the mta to remain solvent without federal government help or additional borrowing through the fed's new visibility. patrick: great question. in the cares act the mta received over $3.8 billion. the heroes act, which was passed by speaker pelosi, and both of those reveal the work senator schumer and that congressional legislation did on a bipartisan basis. ,ike every transit agency ridership has declined precipitously. that is the flipside of new yorkers responding to governor cuomo's directive and request people stay home. today is an important day. phase one of the recovery of new york. we are providing solid reliable subway and bus service this morning. there been no delays reported. we see mass compliance at a high level and we believe lighter ship -- we believe ridership is headed higher. we are in the phase one, significantly below the ridership in pre-pa

. >> this is "bloomberg keene,lance" with tom and lisa abramowicz. --athan: from our audience for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a massive outbreak is sweeping the state. tom: no question about it. the "newez leading york times" article today on the gravity across the entire sunbelt. it is going to be fascinating to see how the mayors and the with ars buttress up washington that seems to feel like the pandemic has moved on. that is decidedly not the case this morning. jonathan: the pandemic has not moved on. we turn to the economic data a little later this morning. we constrain the reopening process for the economy. neither is positive for the economic outlook. we are already seeing that was companies hesitant to rehire people as a result of a lack of confidence. read ofget the latest initial jobless claims in the united states. the pace of filing is still very high, 1.3 million filings expected. hear from, we will the sec chair in front of the house financial services com

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.his is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. the open, two hours and about 12 minutes away, with equity futures at session lows, down 2% and change on the s&p 500. -67 points. the outperformance over the last three days comes from tech, the nasdaq against the small caps. in the bond market, treasuries bid, yields lower. we are down about 20 basis points on the 10 year. treasuries have been really firm this week. the curve is tighter. in foreign exchange, the story of dollar weakness through much of the last several weeks, and for a fourth straight week, we get a little more dollar weakness yet again. for today's session, the euro just slightly negative. the euro coming back with a little bit of strength on the session. tom: dollar came back. it dropped like a rock off of the grimness from chairman powell yesterday. i would watch em currency as well the pandemic statistics. i don't know if they are correlated, but i am really watching mexican peso to see if that unr

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene, on this friday morning, it feels like in this market, any other friday. in this economy, it is anything but. tom: not only in the economy, but within our society and culture as well. you're absolutely right. it really feels like an august friday here. we had the range bound markets all week, maybe with the exception of gold. all of that pushed aside by the ramifications of the pandemic. we don't need to go into it now, but i really wonder over the andend, as the economists equity strategists write how they adapt and adjust their q3 view out of the news we are seeing from the sunbelt. jonathan: it is going to be a tug-of-war for the next few weeks and months. beneath the surface, the fragility is really going to start to show in places like texas and florida. lisa: this is the tension. the traditional data we rely upon, getting some of it today at 8:30 a.m. with u.s. personal income and spending, this data is outdated well before we even get it. there is a question of what d

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: it will be fascinating to see how the white house and the president respond to it today. i am not going to go into it at length, but let me cut to the chase. and arizona are where new york and new jersey were 85 days ago. that is what you need to know. it is extremely important to understand that something has changed in the last 24 hours. this is the story front and center today. jonathan: the numbers are worrying. they are concerning. i am not going to get excited about $3 billion of trade between the eu and the united states. this has got to be about the reopening process. does it constrain policymakers' ability to push forward in states like texas? it.: you just nailed consumer confidence, i think, is probably going to be one of the biggest drivers. we are already seeing this anecdotally across the country. meanwhile, we have economists trying to get their hands on around just what this means. we will get projection from the imf on their latest earth outlook. they already pre

lisa abramowicz, you see that in the bond market. what is the distinction you see in the quiet and full faith and credit? lisa: this has been the story for the year, suppressing the borrowing cost for both themselves, the nation, as well as for companies. this has led to the risk on feel. i am trying to get a handle on how much this is contributing to the glass half empty sentiment that jon was talking about. the fact that we are seeing pacescounts pick up and like texas, and arizona, and the market shrugs it off and look forward. at theam going to look glass half-full. we just spoke to the lieutenant governor, opening in new york on monday. baseball can't do it. american football can't do it. you and i will observe the tots playing a team from up north this afternoon. let's go jerry and the pacemakers. there's a small liverpool game coming up as well. tom, i'm so impressed. our next guest is so excited about this that he would rather talk about his beloved liverpool then he would the bond market. that is the state of affairs at the

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. little reminder, this morning the stocks can go down as well. , we see rightge on the screen? i know it is a theme. markets and across asset analysis, i think a little history is in order. you need to go back to 1933, just before i entered wall street. you need to go back to 1933 to see the 53 day lift that we just saw. jonathan: tom keene in cash since the 1930's, an unbelievable position he's held throughout the last century or so. [laughter] you have not participated in this rally for a long time, tom keene. jonathan: this is -- tom: this is really important. a great strategist at ubs was , and thato hours ago was the distinction he made. this has been a surge without a lot of volatility and without a lot of volume. volume is missing, and that is something to talk to our esteemed guest about in a moment. jonathan: just a sense of exuberance in the last couple of days. later this morning, there's a little bit of data we need to look out for. lisa: at 10:00 a.m., we are getting job o

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. economy,erds of this secretary mnuchin, chairman powell on capitol hill. tom: it has been a six months that has been totally unpredictable and has led to this word going on forward, which is uncertainty. uncertainty and economics, uncertainty across investment. says it isnuchin across finance as well. to me, the hard question here, forget about hong kong, about boris johnson talking about the fdr new deal for your united kingdom. windows thehing is next round of fiscal stimulus appear. jonathan: there will be huge pressure to deploy yet. the message from chairman powell is we will not fully recover until we control this virus in this country. and the radical uncertainty being expressed by policymakers -- by fed chair jay powell as well as steven mnuchin gives people certainty that we are going to get more stimulus both on the fiscal and monetary policy front. among the things i am watching today, we are getting a further read on the housing market after the pending home sounds data --

lisa abramowicz wishing it was the 1980's and we had the days of the bond vigilantes. you are wishing we had the bond vigilantes this morning? lisa: it just would make more sense to me. when people say the fundamentals in the bond market, what fundamentals are we talking about? are we talking about the massive supply, the fundamental premise that the fed is going to buy whatever the usl? defendant ash whatever the u.s. sells?whatever the u.s. jonathan: the central bank slaughtered the bond vigilantes, didn't they? and they make a comeback? tom: it is going to be fascinating. subadra had her research on the said acquisitions -- the fed acquisitions. it is not the gloom, but nevertheless, it is a completely artificial environment. with that that mob got too much respect for the bid ask. bob doll was brilliant today, with nuveen. the market is saying something, and everybody is trying to rationalize it. the highest thing i heard this week was stand rick and miller. an thatst said -- was stn was stand drunken -- was stan druckenmiller. he just said, i missed it. you.han: st

we are with lisa abramowicz.500 is advancing, are starting to fade going into the cash open. we are positive by about 2.1% on the highs. we are now up by 1% and up by about 42 points. just a little fade from the session highs. treasuries are softer and yields up by about three basis points to 0.7%. in the foreign-exchange story is as follows. the aussie on top, positive by about .7%. improving from yesterday. we do give a little bit of that up, just a little bit in the last hour or so. tom: i agree. in the last hour and a half, it has given up a little bit. but the first thing i did this morning on the bloomberg terminal as i went and looked at standard deviation studies of the market. came, how how far we quickly, and the damage yesterday was not nearly as bad as i thought i would see on the bloomberg screen. jonathan ferro knows that a major at hsbc not only has the low yield call right once or twice or three times. it has been extraordinary about nailing the longer-term bond call. in the equity markets, benjam

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. morning, good morning to you all. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. north and south america accounted for almost 2/3 of new coronavirus cases. the death toll in brazil has passed 50,000, and cases across the u.s. sunbelt surge. there were a record 4500 new cases in california. florida reported more than 4000 cases saturday. bank of england governor andrew bailey has secured a major shift in strategy for removing emergency stimulus. -- hestretching the need is stressing the need for fiscal stimulus. the disappointing turnout at president's rally in tulsa was the latest warning for his campaign. the rally attracted far fewers than the president and his advisers -- attracted far fewer than the president and his .dvisers attracted so far an -- russia is president vladimir putin says he will consider running in 2024. he says the hunt for any -- one provision would allow putin to stay in offi

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. keene, what a confusing week for u.s.-china relations, ending on a positive note for this equity market. this market is still a glass half-full equity market. tom: i will let you decide if it is glass hat -- if it is glass half-full, half-empty, but it is decidedly range bound. i guess phase one is back on, but i have zero confidence in that. it is just interesting to see the back and forth, and it is not just the bolton papers. it is the whole back-and-forth between beijing and washington. it is a friday of confusion. jonathan: it is a friday of confusion. a friday of hope over in europe, as well, as leaders discuss stimulus plans. i think the formal negotiations begin right now. they certainly don't in later today. lisa: no they don't, although we might getting some kind as far as who is pushing back and how close they are to agreeing on this 750 million euro fiscal stimulus plan. that is ongoing right now. the other thing i am watching today, i am looking at the baker hughes u.s. r

lisa abramowicz, you are going to be looking at the fed today what,h the prism of trillions of dollars of debt buildup. -- what will listen for will you listen for from chairman powell? lisa: defocus very much right now is on yield curve control. how much does the fed one to backstop yields where they are? interesting to see equity futures rallying and actually building on gain as we see bond yields falling, particularly on the long end. the 30 year and 10-year treasury yield going lower. i wonder how much the action today is really baking in the support of the federal reserve, coming out and saying we have your back with respect to asset prices until this economy gets going again. tom: let's get right to our guest right now. bob miller is with us. i know bob miller has an entire bookshelf loaded with --. he's read all there is. it is like "game of thrones," folks. bob miller, you were at bank of america. you have been running the ship at blackrock pushing a decade as well. have you ever seen this environment for fixed income? is this new, uncharted territory through the fixed income m

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. you've talked about the crosscurrents through this week. on one side, the better-than-expected economic data. on the others, signs of an outbreak in beijing, china. tom: there's no question on international relations. it is tangible. we just spoke with stephen roach, an expert on the fabric of china, from shanghai all the way to the indian border. there's tangible issues. no question they are flexing their muscle right now. what i would notice in this market on a quiet wednesday, i know you will do the data check here. publishing moments ago this bullish consumer view, and that was a game changer yesterday with the retail sales report. jonathan: we will catch up on the geopolitics a little later in the hour. equity futures up 19 on the s&p 500, focusing a move higher over the last several weeks, up by 0.6%. just surprise after positive surprise. the economic surprise index in the united states is absolutely flying. and: it is at a record high searching higher after yesterday's retail

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. confusion over the relationship between china and the united states, and it got a whole lot more confusing overnight. you listen to the interview on fox with navarro, and it is urtness ofthe c his response and what that did for markets. you are going to do a data check in the appropriate crowd noise behind the data, but what is important to me is you've still got a bid to the market even within the quiet. jonathan: spare us the crowd noise when i do the market check. peter navarro saying that the trade agreement was over. the president, his boss, correcting him pretty quickly. ae so-called fiscal cliff, different kind of fiscal cliff going into july. what will happen with the fiscal stimulus we got months ago, and what will this administration do in the next 30 days? lisa: president trump coming out in a "washington post" article, saying he perhaps does support the $1200 additional stimulus check to be sent out. the white house has yet to take an additional position

lisa abramowicz waiting for the day that someone comes on this program and says they are long ccc's so can pounce and ask them why. [laughter] ccc's doinge the right now, lisa? jonathan: i am waiting for the day. lisa: me, too. down 80: equity prices on the s&p 500, down 2.5%. from new york morning, good morning. full coverage coming up on bloomberg tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ when you say what you're in the mood for, the xfinity voice remote will find exactly that. happy stuff. if the groups happy, i'm happy. you can even say a famous movie quote and it will know the right movie. that'll do, donkey! you're expecting prince charming? you can learn something new any time. education. and if you're not sure what you're looking for, say... surprise me. just ask "what can i say?" to find more of what you love with the xfinity voice remote. jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz for your jobs data in america. that's crossover to michael mcke

. >> this is "bloomberg tom keene,e," with jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. edward: -- tom: good morning. wfh, as the jargon now, you work from home. when do we all get back to the office? we thank you for watching. a really interesting wednesday. there are a lot of political moments, there's international relations. in the market, i'm sorry. i started out this morning with on, and all much going now a bid to equities once more. jonathan: you the word crosscurrents. i think that is the right word this week. we have better-than-expected data in the united states. i think the data right now is absolutely critical. the federal reserve has played a huge role in this market, and clearly that is exacerbating this, but the veracity comes from the better-than-expected data. you have to say that this rally tracks that pretty well so far. tom: lisa abramowicz, what have you learned about the efficacious nature of fed policy? is it helping right now? lisa: it is helping to push down yields and push up prices of assets across the board, and certainly hoping to encourage

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. extraordinary throughout cities overnight, and that is still the top story this morning. tom: no question about it. last night was like nothing i've ever seen before. there were knows, people moving down to macy's come alluding as well -- to macy's, looting as well. tension across the city, no question about it. you opened correctly, which is this is not just about new york. it is not just about washington. it is about cities across the nation, the horrific events in buffalo and those tragic deaths in chicago as well. jonathan: for programs like this where we have to cover the markets, you have to stress to the size that this equity market just feels totally removed from the mood of this country right now. we talked about yesterday, and no doubt through this morning as well. tom: i am not going to mince words. i've witnessed this before i was born with my grandparents. one set of grandparents completely removed from the depression, worried about the stock market. the other set of gran

with tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, alongside lisa abramowicz. vix 10 big figures in the led by thatak, shock fed announcement. down we go to 34 and even a 33 handle on the vix. towas really extraordinary just sit there and observe the turn in the markets yesterday. it continues this morning. surprise, in an election year, we are thinking about infrastructure. a $1 trillion infrastructure on deck, according to reporting in washington, d.c. this shouldn't shock anyone. tom: not at all. as i said earlier, everybody tunes into you. they don't tune into me earlier. i get that. but to the people out there, it is a bridge to nowhere in kentucky, a bridge to nowhere in san francisco for speaker pelosi. i guess the president can put a bridge to nowhere in florida. it is all about politics. you just say to yourself, why can't this happen? why can't this get done? i don't have a straight answer. jonathan: i don't have a straight answer either. they are not here for me, tom. they are here for lisa. let's talk about the data. retail sales on deck. a series o

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.ting human shape for the opening bell this monday morning, with equity futures still elevated, but fading off the highs. we are up around 19 points on the s&p 500, 0.6%. in the bond market, treasuries as follows. yields lower by around a basis point or so on the 10 year to 0.69%. the dollar decidedly weaker in g10. the euro advancing about 0.2%. that is a stronger euro, a weaker dollar. the focus, the fallout of the politics over the weekend as the campaigning begins, and maybe not in the way the president of the united states would have wanted it to. tom: absolutely extraordinary. four or five stories here to bounce off of with our chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. i think what we need to go to is the image of a late-night exit for marine 1 -- exit from marine one. it was absolutely extraordinary, and all my years of observing president trump, to see him so downfall and -- so downtrodden and crestfallen. i have never seen that donald trump. have you? kevin: well, i would

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.bloomberg surveillance this is"bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg -- this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. just ahead of economic data in the united states, still negative on the s&p 500. a bid came into the bond market in the last hour as well, down to 0.7%. your 30 year right now sub five basis points on the session. 1.48% is your yield. tom: 12 minutes away from the claims number, and we will give you that discuss further in our next half-hour. right now, you just heard from george magnus and his wonderful book on president xi. who does george magnus listen to? he listens to leland miller. miller has come out of washington and lee university and carved out a career as the absolute definitive micro analyst of china. no one, and i mean no one, does it better than leland miller at trying to figure out what real traffic or what electric utility rates are doing to china, and what it signals. let me get right to it in your china beige book. wh

with tom keene, and jonathan ferro, alongside lisa abramowicz.e are live on bloomberg tv and radio, getting you set up for your market day. it feels so alien to talk about markets that are positive in a moment like this in the united states. equity futures are positive 14 points on the s&p 500. we talked so much about foreign-exchange. weaker dollar for a fourth straight session. in the bond market, here's the 10 year treasury for you, 0.68%. the focus right now for many people is not the election. it is social justice. but come november, this will become a bigger and bigger topic as we count down to that national vote. had the polling yet. anyone looking at the house come of the presidential race to november and the ability perhaps of the republicans to lose all three of those chambers. cirilli, ourevin chief washington correspondent. it is remarkable to see any news feed and see the number of officers injured across this nation in the last 12 hours, maybe the last 18 hours as well. we know this president will come to the defense of those police

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with you. now, the most important interview we could do in this fair city of five boroughs, new york city, then trying to get our restaurants open for the society, the culture, and the food our restaurants bring. it is everything from mcdonald's to a bistro to this and that. daniel boulud is that the top of the heap. not only the many different restaurants he has, including danielle, but also his management of the people, the management of the kitchens in the front of the house as well. us here ons bloomberg surveillance. what you need right now from mayor de blasio, what you need from governor cuomo? we got into phase two and i am opening our westside restaurant with a big terrace. they have been flexible with giving us a chance to put tables in the street and open the restaurant, but it is not the only solution. we need the city of new york to be vigilant and very safe. we need to keep our staff very safe. we need to continue to support the center by bringing back more customers. we have done

i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. get a grip, man.y futures up 26 points on the s&p 500. we advance 0.8%. this market a real lift, a sharp contrast with the social unrest in this country. yields higher, the curve steeper. in fx, a weaker dollar story as well. from new york this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. today's jobs report expected to show that u.s. unemployment rate surged to almost 20% last month. that is after reaching the highest level since the great depression in april. the may report is likely to show the jobs numbers now extended into white-collar positions. payrolls shrank by 7.5 million positions. you jobs report comes out -- the jobs report comes out at 8:30 a.m. in new york, a protester in serious condition after being shoved to the ground. video shows the 75-year-old why am on the ground with blood pooling around his head. the two officers have been suspended without pay. meanwhile, the new york city police department expects to suspend some of its office

ferro, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. has been a belief that china's present would be our future. there was a constructive meaning a month -- meeting a month ago. it, majorestion about changes in their relationship. we talked to bob hormats in the last hour, and it is flat out a different tone. the tone to me this morning, jon, is fascinating. the crosscurrents in the market, i can honestly say, in a zillion years, i have never seen how odd it is right now with the pandemic news, and of course some of that, china and beijing, wrapped around the reaffirmation of wall street, for some form of v-shaped recovery. i was thunderstruck over the weekend, some of the optimism coming out of wall street houses. jon: we will talk about that later in the program. a fresh outbreak in beijing very much the focus this morning, the disappointing data as well. the data does not validate the exuberance we saw in the market as we saw in the month of june. lisa: that is the problem, that demand is not picking up. even though we are seeing man

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. we will hit the markets with james athey of aberdeen standard investment, the senior asset manager. equities drift higher on the s&p 500. treasuries lower, the yield up, curve steeper. risk appetite improves compared to 24 over the ago. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the trump administration is preparing its latest proposal to get the economy going. bloomberg has learned the plan calls for spending almost $1 trillion on infrastructure. most would be set aside for traditional projects like roads and bridges. it would also spend on 5g networks and rural broadband. fed chair jerome powell is expected to give another downbeat view of the u.s. economy today. of hearingso days on capitol hill with an appearance before the senate banking committee. last week, fed policymakers held interest rates near zero and signaled they would probably stay there through 2022. it is one of the largest provocations north korea has made to south korea in

alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro.less claims drop across the terminal. let's get the numbers. michael: as a lot of people feared, jobless numbers worse than expected. we have had a surge in the southern states and the virus and we have a surgeon jobless claims. 1,480,000, that is down from last week. 60,000 lower than a revised level last week of 1,508,000. however, we are seeing totinuing claims down 19,522,000. we will have to wait and see if those move up again if the overall jobless claims numbers are moving up again. continuing claims come in a week later. the one thing we want to keep an ion is the pandemic assist -- an eye on is the pandemic assistance. the assistance that goes to people not usually yell about -- not usually eligible. that goes down. still 728,000. almost one point 5 million jobless claims as the economy still struggles to get out from other the virus. durable goods orders were expected to coming up 10.5%. they are up 15.8%. we will have to look at the breakdown and see what pushed them up extr

lisa abramowicz looks at it at every single morning. ont end of the belly of the curve anchored by the fed and yelled starting to drift down as we reopen this economy. lisa: yes, and the question i have is how much is this due to the increasing deficit, the fact the u.s. is selling more debt, raising questions about demand, and how much is this pricing in a faster than expected recovery? one thing i'm looking for tomorrow is we have seen this trend lower in the number of individuals on unemployment insurance, and we are expecting the number to go down tomorrow, perhaps giving a sense of an ongoing work every. jonathan: we sought last week and that is something we need to continue seeing. the theme on this program is quite clearly we will get sequential improvement as we go from shut down to reopening. things willcourse improve as you go from shut down to reopen. the degree to which they will improve is where the debate should be and the limits of the overall recovery. i know i sound like a broken record bring this up every day, but that

alongside tom keene with lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro.ies higher, up 11 points on the s&p 500. we paid a little bit. still up 14%. -- still up .4%. on a 10 year, up a single basis point 0.65. talk about that euro strength in the fx market through most of this morning. .5% or where we stay, up .6%. payrolls thursday. your median estimate, 3 million. rbc is looking for 8 million this coming thursday. tom? tom: huge disparity, but i would not underplay all of the other economic data we will get, including the ism manufacturing, which i believe is a 43 to a 49.50. they are looking for a v-shaped ism of some nature as well. it is the conundrum of the morning for us. tiffany wilding of pimco does careful economic work that their portfolio managers jump out of. -- i want an update on how the ve is? how is the v-shaped recovery going? tiffany: i think it will look like a v for the first several months of this recover me. it is important to note we think we came out of recession in may, and as we came out of that recession, not only the deepest re

if lisa abramowicz is working the ootd from saks fifth avenue and looking in address usually 1500, now00. why did she go back to dropping on fifth avenue? why didshe get it 24 -- she go back to shopping on fifth avenue. probably go back to the relationship. if you buy a louis vuitton handbag, it will probably be the same price online or in store. the price will not be the issue on that item. on the discounted end of season merchandise, you'll be able to figure out where you want to buy it. some people, even with the mastercard data saying 21% is data saying 21% is online, that mean 70% is still in the store. people still like to experience products. they still like that interaction with the associate. clearly they have to feel safe. right now we are in an environment where the consumer be to feel safe enough to able to go into the store. that is evolving as stores open. as you open up, there is a pent-up demand to get out into the store and you are seeing improvement in the trends. the outdoor malls are picking up faster. people are more comfortable in an outdoor environment than they

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. an uncomfortable calm, maybe even a exuberance, we unwind that a little bit ahead of the ecb decision. tom: no question about it. --d under $1700 announce ounce.1700 an everything going on in washington, it was a historic evening last night with the -- the of the matus mattis essay in "the atlantic." jonathan: it was quite the contrast for the president of the united states. no question about it. i know we are going to go to kevin in a moment, but it is an .xtraordinary moment the number one thing is the president's response has pretty much been on radio silence. looking to hear from him a little bit later this morning. ecb and christine lagarde. lisa: the interesting thing to me as we are not necessarily seeing the emergency in markets. as tom was sand, we are going to get the release. we got thoseget, u.s. initial jobless claims every thursday morning. how quickly are some of the people getting rehired? how much are these numbers understating the situation given the discrepancies we

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.are one hour and 12 minutes away from your opening bell. we rolled over just a bit, down six points on the s&p 500, off by 0.2%. the curve has been flatter through much of the morning so far. your thirty-year down almost three. in foreign-exchange, muted price action in g10 for much of this morning. euro-dollar going absolutely nowhere. pound sterling just a little bit weaker. the pound just a little bit lower. tom: maybe francine the quad driving the pound weaker with her conversation with the chancellor of the exchequer earlier today. to have you reset for the second half of 2020, a guy who writes an incredibly interesting short research note. michael purves is great because it is six or seven or eight pages, instead of the three pages of boilerplate. in that, he always tries to get out in front of the trend. with theat to a t issue currency dynamics a year ago. we are thrilled he could join us this morning. really simply, where is the opportunity right now? what are you writing abou

father's or imf imf.er's >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. equity futures on another planet. we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramovitz. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i struggle to think of a time when this equity market was more detached from the mood of this country. question about that, and i guess it is no surprise. we have seen it many times before. a little bit of dollar churn today, but you are absolutely correct. we have ebbed away in the last few hours or so. the events over the weekend are absolutely extraordinary, and they are original and unique versus other times of unrest in this nation. gatesan: and the of the -- and the events of the weeks to come will be remarkable as well. the equity market is totally unchanged at 7:00 a.m. eastern. as we count people down to that payrolls report this coming friday, we are approaching 20% unemployment. tom: my calculation over the weekend from research 18%s i

interesting here, i think it is so important to understand that a bit ago for , jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and myself, 10% in employment was on except about, and today we are wishing to get there. lisa: that is exactly where i wanted to go. i wanted to pick up on this idea that we are seeing more hiring at a pretty quick pace, but that is to be expected, right? the economy was closed to prevent the virus from spreading. now people are going to get rehired. what are you looking for to determine the permanency of some of these layoffs that are being attributed to the pandemic? is there any gauge youth inc. is reliable? -- age you think israelite -- any gauge you think is reliable? tom p: people have been put on temporarily layoff. most people were laid off because of covid-19. the notion of permanency, i feel at this is a dangerous word that i thicket tends to be overused. if you are going to make the case for permanent job losses, that you're going to see some structural shift down in the, the people that are going to be employed, i hope people are doing the homework on how you arrive at pe

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.nting you down to the opening bell, with equity futures up 33 points on the s&p 500, a little more than 1%. the story overnight, trade confusing. peter navarro making it sound like the phase i trade agreement was finished. the president of the united states back against that, saying it was fully intact. layer on top, the president reportedly in the last 24 hours moving towards getting more checks into the hands of american, possibly in the 30 days. we still have no consensus on that from this white house yet in the bond market, treasury yields are higher. the curve is steeper by one on -- on tens.tn euro-dollar steeper by 0.1%. schwartzman's comments were more of the square root shape we have heard about. right now, someone washington loves to hate. what is known in washington is you get a quick read, a little paragraph, a quick snippet of the gas about their, and the acclaimed christopher krueger of cowen goes the other way. he writes super detailed research notes on a friday that you

with tom, i'm jonathan ferro with lisa abramowicz. we are on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio.berg news, the houston warns that the coronavirus is at the precipice of a disaster. officials are getting closer to re-imposing stay-at-home orders earlier this week. highestcorded the one-day tally of new cases since the pandemic emerged. wave ofduring the first the disease. the republican party is moving the nominating convention to jacksonville, florida. the event was scheduled for charlotte, north carolina. leaders want to avoid getting boxed in by president trump over china. he is entitled to invite whoever he wants. he has been musing about inviting the leaders of russia and australia, but not china. they say it is a clear sign that it could become part of the president's anti-china campaign and they don't want to play along. at the border with the european union, it is the same as a no deal brexit. the new border policy emerged after the u.k. and the eu agreed to step up the pace of their trade talks. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.lked about the crosscurrents through this week. on one side, the better-than-expected economic data. on the others, signs of an outbreak in beijing, china. tom: there's no question on international relations. it is tangible. we just spoke with stephen roach, an

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan farro together with lisa abramowicz.'t you down to the opening bell. one hour and 35 minutes away with equity futures up .6% on the s&p 500. we advance 19 points. in the bond market, here's the situation for you. 10-year treasury, on a 10-year, up a single basis point. a 30-year up by three. higher yields and a steeper curve, that has been your story over the last month or so. and foreign exchange, the euro, after a big rally, euro dollar coming back in a little morn a tenth of one percent. from new york city, this is bloomberg live on bloomberg tv. ♪ >> i think we're going to have a very sharp rebound, and you'll see in the second half of the year, probably with about 20% economic growth. >> the latest economic indicators and survey results confirm a sharp construction of the euro era economy and rapidly deteriorating labor market conditions. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan farro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan farro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene, our simulcast

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.rom new york city this morning, good morning. equity futures down five on the s&p. we roll over just a little bit as we close out the quarter and head towards the best quarter since 1998, taking a serious bite out of the q1 losses. await bond market, as we secretary mnuchin and chair powell on capitol hill, yields were a little bit higher, coming in a little bit now. 0.3%.ollar down strength the story through g10. tom: what we have really learned in the past six months is the importance of technology and what it means for our society. davidson,te is at da and he spent a career being more insightful than most on how all of this technology matters to us. he turns that into buy, hold and settle on different equityzen such. he is -- different equities and such. it is the perfect night to comment on some of these things. what is so interesting to me is that the trees are growing to the sky at amazon. do they just continue to grow? great introduction. always a pleasure being on your show. co

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and tv. opening bell 42 minutes away. equities down six points on the s&p 500, -.2%. in the bond market, yields higher, the curve steeper. .68% -- 10 year yield up .68%. the dollar weaker against the bulk of g10, although we raised some of that in the last 20 minutes. a little bit later as i step away to get ready for "accountemps the open -- for the "countdown to the open" we have to focus on this labor market. the labor market is ugly and more ugly for others. we will talk about the payrolls report still to come on this friday. tom: special coverage into the 80 point -- the adp report on wednesday. the may jobs report on friday. we will go beneath the headline data on television and radio at 8:30. right now, an important conversation, and i would suggest my most important conversation of the day on this horrific crisis in america. the news media has been on fire through the weekend speaking about this uproar, the different views, but maybe

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.cinating to see

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz.labor department data with bloombergs michael mckee. if you can hear me, we 1,877,000 initial jobless claims for last week. that is a decrease of 249,000. we continue the trend lower to make things better, that it is still an extraordinary number. a couple of months ago we were looking at 200,000 a month. continuing claims is what everybody is focused on. they come in at 21,487,000. that is an increase from last 20 10 52.h was it does suggest we are seeing more people getting continuing claims. -- it wastwo states not as big a job as people anticipated it might be. maybe it means we are leveling out. in one thing you have to add is pandemic unemployment insurance for people who do not get regular unemployment insurance. self-employed, 623,000 last week which is a major decline from the week before, which was almost 1.3 million. it looks like those who are filing have filed and we are working our way through the backlogs and we will get a fairly clean picture of how many people run cont

with tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, alongside lisa abramowicz.res in the led by thatak, shock fed announcement.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.w york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. confusion over the relationship between china and the united states, and it got a whole lot more confusing overnight. you listen to the interview on fox with navarro, and it is stunning, the

alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.s of this secretary mnuchin, chairman powell on capitol hill. tom: it has been a six

. >> this is "bloomberg keene,lance" with tom and lisa abramowicz. our audience for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a massive outbreak is sweeping the state. tom: no question about it. peter hotez leading

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz.er, this morning the stocks can go down as well. , we see rightge