tom: let's go to the bond market because lisa abramowicz always wants to go to the bond market. 2.01 30 year bond. what does the fixed mortgage do? lisa: fixed mortgages are pretty stable, giving a tailwind to the housing market. at 1:00 we will be getting the 30 year option. -- the 30 year auction. curious to see how many foreign buyers on the 30 year bond. we see more indirect bidders in yesterday's auction than ever before reported and that tells me about the tremendous appetite, especially overseas. tom: there is another -- coming up. lisa: your dying for it. there's been so much debt sold. tom: do i get a dollar for every auction question? lisa: you really showed great interest. tom: watching paint dry. the vix 16.17. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ jonathan: coming into thursday at all-time highs. good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. is the reopening surge

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ty market up .4%. still sub 120 at 1.9 -- -- still sub 1.20, at 1.1954. tom: i like watching euro there. 1.19 is a big deal there, jon. the other thing i would note here is the vix, 18.69, shows a stasis before the labor report. this is an honor. christopher is someone who puts travel out -- downstate, he holds court at johns hopkins and the bloomberg school of public health come is elite epidemic ella just. we are thrilled -- of public health, is a lead epidemic ella just. the idea of the labor of new york city and the governor of new york state saying public enterprise, get your act together. is there a history in the pandemic that public enterprise can provide public health policy? >> well, you know, what we of course want to see is the federal government leading on this, having consistency across the state, but we have never had that in response to the coronavirus. so i think what you are seeing is that people are reluctant to speak to the need for national mandate, asking on immun

good morning alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz.ce action shaping up as follows, s&p basically unchanged. yields in at 131.36. north of 130, that is the change over the last week. last wednesday, a little dip at 112 again. euro negative, a weaker euro. german investor confidence not going in the right direction. absolutely plunging this morning. tom: no question about it. we are going to continue our debate with amesh adalja. dr. adalja, i don't know if you heard the governor of south carolina. what does a pro like you think when you hear politicians, prosecutors, history majors at the university of south carolina play scientist? how do you respond to that? dr. adalja: what we want is the state cap's republic health guidance to reflect the science of covid-19 and the best practices. it has to be a priority that schools be open for in person learning and it can be done safely. we knew how to do this in the pre-vaccine era. many governors are wrestling with this question as variant cases rise because of the unvaccinated populations th

lisa abramowicz, i want to highlight the conversation we had earlier this week with jp morgan. ght it was brilliant on the optimism of applied technology in the coming 10 years. lisa: this idea we have not seen productivity really gain in terms of adding to growth in the united states and adding to wage increases, which really fuels positive and good inflation, saying that could change because of technological advances and using that as a guidepost of how to invest. certainly we have seen a lopsided market recovery and surge in some of these big tech names and others that have adapted well. you to think about how much are we exiting the pandemic with a different economy? this is one of the questions, a sickly, what is the post-pandemic norm and how much are we fast forwarding to a more technologically advanced time? tom: kailey, it speaks to the society that can be benefited by technology versus how many others left behind. again, the theme at jackson hole. kailey: it seems for elon musk and tesla, as well, yesterday. he was talking about humanoid robots. he had someone announce

jonathan: you can book a seat on the lisa abramowicz tour at 4:30 eastern on thursday afternoon. i wasn't joking. that is what lisa does on a thursday afternoon at 4:30. lisa: everyone knows that. [laughter] jonathan: equities on the s&p advancing 0.07%. more insight from some wonderful guests, including bill dudley, the former new york fed president. he will be joining us shortly. the equity market near all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is set to approve that 550 million dollar infrastructure package. it would be the largest infusion of cash in decades for roads, bridges, and other domestic projects. the bill still faces challenges in the house. speaker pelosi said she will hold onto the bill until the senate also takes up the larger spending plan. according to economists surveyed by bloomberg, today's jobs report is likely to show the u.s. adding about 858,000 jobs last. the rollout of vaccines has encouraged businesses to reopen and consumers to return to shops, restaurants and bars. more than 30 u.s. trade

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed. this morning, that's what many are doing. tom: the fed is always in the crosshairs, but it is much more than that. goldman sachs yesterday, they mentioned to variant. this is not about economics. it is about the fourth story of this pandemic. jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to the economists? jonathan: i imagine they are going to be talking about that themselves because this is as much about the pandemic as it is about anything else, and it is as much about china as it is about the federal res

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.berg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for life. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. go to golo.com and get your life back... -with golo. -golo! ♪ >> i don't buy the two month recession we just had. i don't think we've had the shock

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ket advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf

lisa abramowicz, is it pelosi? lisa: we could talk pelosi. we will just note that with crude, two days of the biggest gains since november. in the swamp of economic data, we have durable goods orders, expecting to get the 14th increase out of 15. the idea of ongoing momentum and demand from companies. 12:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. william flynn will be speaking. how much will he talk about nancy pelosi, the infrastructure bill and the resolution that was passed yesterday. to be clear, this is resolution. it does not give us more details and it is not a bill. how close does this get to being passed and how much is flynn in contact with people in congress to get something passed that he things will benefit his infrastructure and his network? i am really interested in this. president biden is going to rule out a number -- roll out number of cybersecurity steps. what are these outlines? how much do you view cybersecurity as the new front and build on that versus some of the other terrorist rats, especially with the backdrop of afghanistan?

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just five to ten minutes a day. the aero trainer supports over 500 pounds, and inflates and deflates in seconds. check it out at aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. jonathan: live from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. or data in america at 10:00, the isom services read anda speech -- the ism services read and a speech from vice chair richard clarida. yields lower at three or four basis points. the tiny look at 1.12, 1.1260 below of a couple tuesdays ago. euro-dollar 1.1872. the dollar weaker on the back of that with yields lower. your equity market also softer. down 12 points o

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.he s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom: a lot of people saying it is a quiet tape. i disagree. the vice chairman conference new -- chairman confronts new lower yields, that negative yielding some worldwide up and away. jonathan: and a payrolls report coming friday. adp claims tomorrow, payrolls friday morning. does that set us up for a more interesting jackson hole meeting? tom: does it set us up for the disappointment of -- yes, that will affect jackson hole. jonathan: you've got to go to china. i really think you have to start in china right now as restrictions start to build and the downgrades start to come through. lisa: people take a look at some of the social restrictions, you take a look at the flight trackers. flights and china have fallen dramatically week over week as people start to hunker down, beijing having issues even with their subway. again, how much is china an outlier, and how much

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, advancing 0.4%. we've had a look at 4400 over the last month or so on the s&p. the calls keep coming through. 4700 from oppenheimer in the last hour on this program. tom: that is a measured lift out, a measured amount of time. 5000 is a big figure for s&p 500. a dow equivalent to spx 5000 is just under dow 40,000. jonathan: thank you, tom. thanks for that value add. tom: but seriously, no one is framing out beyond q4, may december of next year -- maybe summer of next year. jonathan: we had a guest yesterday, stephen stanley of amherst pierpont, saying 4300. they are radically different calls, and both individuals are looking at exec lay the same economic data. tom: do you that into the markets, into the right market, where money is made and lost. it is a vision thing that "surveillance" is struggling with to the end of the summer, and i would say into autumn. we've got to get through august, but how do you frame june of next year? if you are able c

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. .ket up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000

tom: off of lisa abramowicz today, he bought into the saint regis. confirm that is what happened. tom: well, it is a rumor. jonathan: that is the bullish view on treasuries this morning. lisa: that has been the bullish view for the past few months. on the flipside, people say at some point, fundamentals have to matter. if inflation starts picking up, that will make a big difference. it does make me wonder, even if the fed tapers, what is the response in the bond market? some people are saying yields are going to go higher, yet even without the supply and demand dynamic you have been talking about, we have seen yield go lower because it hampers growth to be tightening more early. so many questions in terms of not only what the fed does, but also how traders respond. jonathan: robert tipp of pgim, that conversation just around the corner. your equity market shaping up as follows. five days of gains hit a headwind. we are down 20 on the s&p, -0.4%. we decline on tens to 1.2250%. the last couple of weeks have been difficult for crude. $66.80 on wti. we de

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market, -.1%. tom keene following the biggest one-day slide in about a month. tom: the biggest one-day slide in at least twice six days. the drawdown is extraordinary. let's look at broad drawdown now. down drawdown 1.2%. to be serious, afghanistan and the rest is beginning to color the washington fiscal linkage and that into the market after the economic data we saw yesterday. jonathan: you are right to bring it up. to what degree the issues abroad will overwhelm the effort. you think we are at that point? tom: i think everyone is numb. read the condoleezza rice. we will feature it with annmarie hordern. everyone is starting to think about this. i will suggest this seriously, with great respect to the soldiers that fought and died, we are in shock. only today i my beginning to see the linkages. jonathan: you said you think the administration is in stock. many people responding to something as simple as the retail sales print, but tom is right to bring that up. when you sp

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tom: the word from me on the inflation report is grind, grind, grind. the dollar confirmed, the stronger dollar. jonathan: stte six straight days the treasury down, tom, and where are we right now on a 10-year? that is quite a turnaround. tom: you know there is a low-yield camp, john, but i'm sorry, you have got to respect the grind, and the answer is, day after day, it is price-up. jonathan: and come alisa, we have that hot payrolls report. lisa: that has definitely been a trigger report on a real yield point. are they going to be more sponsor than perhaps people had previously expected, as we get one read after another of hot input. jonathan: annmarie hordern probably has not slept all night, watching the senate. what we call that, a voter rama. lisa: a vote-a-rama- - jonathan: our correspondent in the back immediately emailed me and said "hahaha, yes, i am exhausted." [laughter] tom: didn't she want, like, a five-week recess? jonathan: yields up, and that gets your attention consid

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: the race toward optimism. who can be the biggest bull on the street? this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and television. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. kailey leinz and for jon ferro ahead of -- kailey leinz in for jon ferro ahead of her wedding, which we will be very much congratulating her on. tom: off what we had last week with some real difficult stream of news, and of course, the shock of no jackson hole, and on to where it is just a statement on earnings. a guest coming up is quite good on this. it is the purity of the move up in the last two days the gets my attention. lisa: i keep having this voice in my head saying the stock market is not the economy. how long can we get i divergence -- get a divergence? tom: you have to enjoy losing money three times in a row off of that axum, and i really can't -- that maxim, and i really can't say enough. lisa: i wonder how much emphasis there is on consumer spending and the power of that, especially headed into septem

from new york city, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. o the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue. growth concerns taking their toll. >> there have been growth wobbles. >> global growth is slowing somewhat. >> some of this growth has been slowed. >> we are starting to see is the growth continuing to slow down? >> university of michigan confidence was surprisingly week last friday. >> getting some downtrends in data like retail sales. >> a lot of it has to do with what w

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.our equity market, record highs on wednesday. we are down on the s&p. the election on the euro-dollar, 118.56. on tens, 170 before. yields going nowhere this morning head of vice chair clarida speaking. tom: equities really holding up speaks to the equity premium we are talking about with these new lower yields. right now, it is so important, the idea that we like to look at leaders and experts in their field and find out how gifted they are. we particularly look at the gifted who long ago adored manchester united. it is a story of dr. bhakti hansoti. jonathan: you want to start their? tom: this is way more important than where we are right now. jonathan: dr., forgive us. docotor, forgive us. dr. bhakti hansoti of johns hopkins. >> i was a -- girl before to beckham was famous. jonathan: there we go. tom: that is news you need to know. lisa: can we move to covid? [laughter] tom: dr. bhakti hansoti, we have a lot of questions. i don't buy first wave, second wave, third wave. if it is not

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro.ty market shaping up as follows, down 33 on the s&p, down .8%. it is a classic risk offset up with a bond market bid, a dollar stronger, and commodity complex that is softer. yields lower by three to four basis points to 1.22 33. euro-dollar with a 116 handle, negative a little more than .1%. the commodity market holding onto 63 on wti. down 3.73%. tom: on radio and television this morning, we will do more data checks and keep you abreast. the vix, 17-18 after 23.81. that does get my attention. 30 is sweat and we are not to sweat but well on our way, 23.81 on the vix. this is an important conversation because jennifer news oh reads the research. -- nuzzo reads the research. the new york times has a standout article on the silly plastic barriers that have invaded our lives, including john hopkins university research which say desk screens could actually give us an increased risk versus intelligent use of masks. can you help us with the plastic and golf in this -- the plastic that has en

with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: we gear up for the jobs report on friday.his is "bloomberg surveillance." jon ferro is of, taylor riggs very much in. time, that stands out. we had a couple of disruptions this morning. it really highlights the reality that everyone is in as we await to see whether we will go back to school. the economic ramifications of that significant. tom: across the nation, many of you back in school. in the east we start later. it has been remarkable this morning to see different tests struggling -- guests struggling with the new economy. a tweet i saw yesterday, the idea that this was supposed to be over in september is gone. lisa: and i think we saw that overnight with the pmi's out of china. the slow down, a re-jigging of expectations going forward, you wonder if we will see that in the u.s. their shutdowns are more aggressive than here. tom: there is real economic uncertainty about gdp. we will get some clarity on friday with the jobs report. lisa: and uncertainty when it comes to the equity markets. taylor, when, i am looking at th

alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ction this thursday morning. your equity market pushing higher by 10 points on the s&p. we are just off session highs. 118 into jobless claims later this morning. outside of that into the effects market, euro-dollar unchanged at 1.1841. crude back to 68.23. call it 68.22 on wti. positive about .1% on the session. news from a dharna, they say it's covid-19 remained 93% effective through six months after the second shot. just an update on the efficacy six months after the second shot from a dharna. the number is 93%. tom: we are learning as we go. what i'm hearing from so many people anecdotally, thank you for tweets and emails, we love getting them, is that you really like we talked to experts on your fears of the variance -- experts. on the fears of the variance, a doctor, one of the leading protein chemists. gigi, i will cut to the chase. we will not make this limiters 101. there is delta variant, lambda variant, and the spike protein. what do our listeners and viewers need to fear? >

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.y futures down five, negative on the s&p a little more than zero point 1%. yields higher by about a single basis point on the 10 year to 1.27%. crude up almost 1% to $67.21. afghanistan still very much top of mind worldwide. tom: you know this or than anyone, it is about migration. it is europe, let's pick berlin. it is a big difference in miles for a great migration. why don't you bring in the wonderful therese raphael? jonathan: therese raphael joins us from bloomberg opinion. that's a start there come on the response you have witnessed from the united kingdom off the back of some pretty chaotic images over the weekend. therese: today in parliament which has been recalled to debate the afghan crisis, you have mp after mp on both sides of the aisle criticizing the government policies, its failure to anticipate the fall of kabul, to get refugees and those who helped the british military, but also those who are vulnerable out, to define the policy a little more clearly. back to johnson

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.e's the thursday morning price action. about 12 minutes away from initial jobless claims data and america. equity futures advancing 0.25% on the s&p, inching back towards all-time highs on the s&p 500. yields going nowhere, 1.1819% on the 10 year. $1.1848 on euro-dollar, positive 0.09%. tom: for all of you on radio and tv, steven ric -- steven ricchi uto of mizuho will join us. before that, ben emons writes incredibly thoughtful pieces on central banks worldwide. i am going to cut to the chase. the great economist jon ferro said a while back, are there any hawks left? ben emmons, are there any hawks left? ben: i think there are. i think james bullard may be is one of them, even though he's now considered a dove yet i think a hawk is about risk management. they are looking at inflation above target. they think it is transitory, but they don't want to take a full chance on it. so there is some level of hawkish and us or hawk -- of hawkishness there. so you cannot be a traditional hawk. y

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf in august and january of next year with our market belief. they are really bouncing off each other within the research notes as we begin the month. jonathan: can we take a beat to have a shout out for italy? won the eurovision song contest, won euro 2020, fastest man on the planet, and the two-year yield -0.65%. tom: i just want to extend this moment and suggest what ac milan looks like into 2022. jonathan: let's stop that there. [laughter] lisa: that was a really nice way to try to move on quickly and get it out of the way. the jobs number is going to be really key. how much slack is there in the labor market? we know the demand to hire is there. the question is whether we have seen the kinks worked out or whether we have to wait for september. jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity futures on the s&p 500 shaping

from your city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.e are down 17 points on the s&p. negative .4%. yields lower about .5%. jumping -- by around half a basis point. data out of china. downside surprise. crude is lower, $66.50. down about two dollars on the session. tom: what we tried to do, john, lisa, and i are committed to bringing you the expert. on china the expert is jonathan spence and his classic the search for modern china. what is the search for modern china for afghanistan? it is thomas barfield holding court in anthropology at boston university and plight -- and president of the american institute for afghanistan studies. his book of cultural and political history, this is the absolute singular one volume on the real afghanistan. professor barfield, thank you for joining us. i must ask of the people of your institute, are they safe in afghanistan? thomas: we don't know. my director got out to delhi last week and we are trying to move our staff there. they have visas, but all air traffic is gone. they are in safe houses in kabu

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.e's the price action going into retail sales 12 minutes away in america. michael mckee will break that down for you in just a moment. we are down about 20 on the s&p, we declined by about 0.4%. yields are lower by four basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar negative 0.2%. crude, $66.67. tom: good to take that over the commodity complex as a whole. we don't do that enough. right now on the politics of the moment, this is the perfect guest to do this with, terry haines is the pangea policy founder. we had to go out and find somebody as jaded as we can find within the beltway, and we hit the ball out of the park. i want to go back 306 he five days, times 10, plus another 38 days, where president obama took 650 soldiers out of afghanistan long ago and far away. i believe the all in number at the time was 110,000. we can say that three presidents have said we got to exit. biden, trump, and obama. there's thoughts and there's prayers for this horrific moment, but there's also a common ground t

tom: lisa abramowicz, your thoughts on all of this? bring it away from full faith and credit in bonds into what you are observing in ign high-yield. lisa: basically, the fed put that has been ongoing, and bill dudley even said the dominant factor in yields being as low as they are, is trickling over to the credit side. companies refinancing at the fastest pace ever. i think we were framing the debate well earlier today, when you were talking about can the fed raise rates and move away from their stimulus if everybody is buying into it and following them? how disruptive will it be for them to change course if everyone is just saying we don't want to fight you, we are on the same pages you? will that necessarily lead to a correction that the fed is not prepared for right now? tom: do we change the parlor game over the fed when we see a headline that tyson foods will require vaccinations from their u.s. workforce? that filters into our game. jonathan: we talked about august as being passed through to september because september, we are wa

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as you migrate out strongly into next year with a statement on the end of 2022. jonathan: 4700 this year, 4900 next year. 11% upside into 2022 year end. a market that apparently will have stable interest rates. tom: he's talking about that, he's talking about earnings growth. i am going to bring it over to someone way out front on double-digit optimism, and that is ben laidler. the common thing of laidler, kostin, and the other bulls is yes, interest rates matter, the jobs report matter. the important thing is what corporations are doing. jonathan: the big question is can they continue to keep his big margins insulated. lisa: we were speaking with gina martin adams yesterday. she was saying people have underestimated how much margin pressures have come in with s&p

lisa abramowicz here as well. emily, we do not need a clinic on isis but we also need to look at what in kabul is the early afternoon and today hi threat. the high thread is isis, but it is not the isis we know from the labonte, is it? emily: no. what we are seeing in afghanistan, here in d.c., there is still the primary focus right now on getting american citizens in afghanistan -- and afghanistan allies out of the country. you heard from antony blinken saying there are 1500 americans left. they are in contact with about 500 of them. he pointed out there seem to be some americans who do not wish to leave afghanistan at this time, that they want this day. he said they will continue to offer the option to them to leave but it is unclear how that will happen if u.s. is going to not have a functional embassy or armed services currently after august 31. tom: is there any discussion in your world of a two front afghanistan, of the taliban, what to do with the taliban but also with the isis-k or is that even under discu

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. taylor riggs darkens the door because jonathan ferro is off. we thank her for joining on a day on jackson hole and the speech of the federal reserve system to the known world. lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are. everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond

heard on radio, seen on tv, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.his is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: live from new y

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is down a single point on the s&p. the focus on washington, a deal coming together. tom: a deal coming together on infrastructure. the markets churning around. the consumer pop we get from fiscal policy has to be accounted for. jonathan: what about the yield pop? 1.60% now the call i goldman. these forecasts are coming in. tom: a movement to 1.60% gets your attention? the ambiguity of have that rebounds and equities, we will do that a moment with mike wilson. i am looking at the terminal, and it is telling me this is a bull market, as we heard from jon golub yesterday. that is just one of the microcosms of innovation, and life goes on. jonathan: new iphones with reportedly a camera upgrade. you've got to tell people what the news is. tom: new iphone toys. you know, they are going to do new stuff for the iphone. we are all going to have to go out and buy them. but life goes on for corporations. but i do pick your point -- i do take your point, their may be some marke

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000 for ed yardeni next year. tom: jon, the equity market rationalization right now, the narratives about it, the gloom of the friday research note in these rare notes of optimism, it's got to be studied. jonathan: ben laidler in the previous hour as bullish as ever. he thinks the reopening trade hasn't even started yet. tom: really important point, as each bull has a different way of approaching this. it is not a uniform call. jonathan: we like balance on this program. here's lisa. [laughter] lisa: i do think that the key distinction between the bulls and the bears right now is margin pressures, how much companies can adapt to higher cost. you have the likes of ben laidler coming out and saying it is not going to be transitory, were you -- transitory, whereas you have others saying this is going to be a problem. jonathan: you are right to frame the de

taylor riggs in for jon ferro come up with lisa abramowicz. focused on the chairman's speech at 10:00 a.m., but right now we focus across the north lawn of the white house to a most difficult friday for the president. our annmarie hordern is at the north lawn. i looked it up, charles dickens visiting that north lawn in 1842 said there was no confusion or disorder. measure the confusion and the disorder at the white house this morning. annmarie: as you said, yesterday was a very difficult day. you really heard that in the president's speech. he said he is both outraged and heartbroken. that was the tone, quite emotional at one point, getting red, talking about how these decisions weigh heavy on him, but completely outraged, saying we will find you, we will hunt you down. this morning he will be assembling with his national security team at 8:00 a.m. what is so difficult going forward, we heard from general mackenzie, we heard from the president that these threats of these attacks still exist. they have a few days to evacuate everyone at the sam

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.own seven points on the s&p, negative zero .16%. all-time highs through much of last week on the s&p 500. the yield higher through friday, lower through this morning. down by about a basis point to -- and the euro-dollar not doing much. the story of the morning, where the price action is, is in the commodity market. crude down to 65.50. tom: gold with some dynamics as well. the tradable readjustment is profound off what we saw friday in jobs. it is august in washington. leading the headlines at the washington post is fallout boy will not appear at the national stadium with green day and a bunch of others. and we heard during -- annmarie hordern actually -- absolutely crushed. is a perceived in washington that the senate infrastructure is a waste of time, because all they will do is get to the house and face huge stumbling blocks? annmarie: it is a good point. i do not think people view it as a waste of time, because obviously you need a number of steps in washington, d.c. in order for

i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. ntdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> the mood music from jackson hole will be very important. >> everyone is sensitive and reactive to what is upcoming. >> more signals from the fed tapering is on the agenda. >> not making an announcement. >> this is a fed that proceeds very deliberately, very carefully. >> no reason to

employment, employment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowiczing, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us this morning. jon ferro off. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions

i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: more capitulation from the bears. >> a wall of worry. >> more signals from the fed. >> we still have a very healthy and accommodative backdrop. >> equities perform very well. >> profits have exceeded expectations. >> there's so much liquidity. >> equities continue to move higher. >> most of them have capitulated. >> there is auy

i will disappear stop i expect someone bearish to return that calls herself lisa abramowicz. meyer joins us later, bank of america securities head of economics. looking forward to optimism from michelle after two hours from lisa. you're saying i am not being bearish, i am -- lisa: looking around corners. jonathan: every single morning. monday through friday from 6:00 to 9:00 eastern. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is moving closer to passing that $550 billion infrastructure bill. a vote is scheduled for 11:00 eastern. once the measure is passed democrats plan to approve a budget resolution that would clear the way for passage of the rest of president biden's economic agenda. they could do that without any republican support. for the first time in decades american workers are calling the shots. companies such as kroger, under armour, encz up ole are pushing up hourly wages to try to retain employees. workers are scoring the biggest pay hikes since the early 1980's. wages for the leisure and hospitality have risen at an an

i know, lisa abramowicz, the yield of 1.31% on the 10-year yield. we have yields -- lisa, yields are creeping away. lisa: yields are creeping away. and the coral larry effect given the fact that people were wondering, well, yields can rise as long as it's slow and also just note, crude, turning higher on the day. third straight day of gains. tom: 71.37. romaine bostic with the individual stocks, romaine, what do you have? romaine: start off with j&j. a lot of talk about those booster shots. we know the u.s. pushing to start booster shots for moderna and pfizer vaccinated folks starting september 20. now j&j throwing its data on the pile. coming out with a report on early stage clinical trial about booster for its single shot immunization here. it shows very promising results here. there is no formal request yet to include j&j in this booster program. but j&j wants to be a part of the conversation here. j&j shares up fractionally. keep an eye on the chinese stocks that rally we saw ran into a speed bump. we heard from the s.e.c. chair late last night

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us this morning. jon ferro off. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions for the federal reserve which is how quickly are they going to allow that to rise at a time when there is so much uncertainty. are we seeing peak delta fears, or is this a prolonged slowdown that is going to affect gdp figures? tom: the thing i see out of the weekend is what we talk about on friday, it occurred friday afternoon. i was waiting for monday morning. never got there. but not a canceled jackson hole, but a different jackson hole. lisa: the idea that it was moved to virtual highlights potential economic pain from the dragging on of this pandemic because think about all of the canceled hotel rooms, all of the canceled flights, all of the canceled dinners. it is all revenue for different areas in the nation. you wond

lisa, we have to announce, as we did lightly yesterday, one week from today, lisa abramowicz and i willfrom the shores of jackson hole with michael mckee, and the chairman will be virtual. lisa: i am still trying to get my head around the geographer you imagine we are heading to in the mountains of the ocean there. [laughter] tom: there is a big swamp, seriously. when the central bank delete go out and wave to the elk and do all that, it is a huge swamp over a good mile and a half, with all sorts of animals and there. trout -- ken prewitt used to fly fish out there. lisa: you look at and see all the animals. one person who will be disappointing the moose and the elk will be jay powell, because he will stay in washington, d.c. others, including vince reinhardt, who will be coming up, will also forgo a visit because of the delta variant, which highlights where we are in this pandemic. but we will be there and waving at the elk. maybe nobody else. [laughter] tom: a different conference. michael mckee lining up important conversations. but it will be good to talk to vince reinhardt -- vince

taylor riggs, lisa abramowicz, tom keene.tary-general general, the former prime minister of norway with us in the 9:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. and tom keene. bonds bid, price up, yield down, equities bid, price up. we have seen this before. lisa: changing this morning.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%. every morning we wake up, we had down to d.c. and discuss afghanistan. it is the one thing we do not discuss that you wonder starts to shape this market. we have stopped talking about infrastructure spending, fiscal spending down in washington. tom: there's a high conviction august and the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. i look at the market and the pause today. yes, swiss franc a little bit stronger. but this is the day where we start to link off the shop of -- the shock of afghanistan. the beds are coming in -- the op-ed's are coming in. condoleezza rice and others. it is all linked into confidence. jonathan: and administration may be overwhelmed by events right now. tom: overtaken by events, absolutely. the question is the leadership in governance and the visibility after the president made those first tentative steps the other day. jonathan: lisa, pushing forward today in afghanista

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.our equity market down two, -0.05%. tom: a lot of houses doing a lot of good work. i mentioned jp morgan in the last hour on rent dynamics. that is the way this report is going to be. we are going to look at the different parts of inflation and see what those immediate dynamics are. jonathan: are the temporary factors, or do they start to bleed? tom: exactly. i do take your point, but i look much more at the boom economy, massive fiscal stimulus, and maybe almost tertiary to the discussion is what we saw in washington overnight. jonathan: let's talk about what we saw in washington through the night. lisa: democrats passed an outline for the $3.5 trillion plan. what does this mean? do you have a sense of what it can mean to have a framework for what could be passed? jonathan: it means there's going to be a fight down in washington for quite a while. i think we will have to check in with annmarie hordern every morning on what is going on. we are -0.06% on the s&p. not much going on there

tom keene and lisa abramowicz.tching the data, particularly of claims here in exec lee when our. -- in exactly one hour. john ryding scheduled to be after mr. mckee. right now, mckee begins his work in jackson hole. the number one issue is taper. no, not the economic taper. the taper of my waist after three meals at the pioneer grill. guess what? it is not going to happen because we've gone virtual. mckee is virtual, and the esteemed esther george is virtual. let's listen. esther: we had hoped for an in-person meeting. we knew in the back of our mind that would be a function of how the virus unfolded, and as we saw last week, risk levels went up, and in the interest of our guests, we pivoted to a virtual platform. so disappointed, but still looking forward to a great conference. we've got a great lineup of speakers and papers that i think are going to bring insight to important topics. michael: you lead to an important question, the latest covid spike. how do you think that is going to affect the economy? esther: i

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom

from new york city i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. n to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: let's begin with the big issue. waiting on chair powell. >> all eyes will be on fed chair powell's comments. >> chair powell. >> fed chair powell. >> will be visiting very closely. >> the july fomc minutes stole the thunder. >> the consensus now is jackson hole will be less exciting. >> you have to look beyond jackson hole. >> the fed communicates tapering. >> we look toward the september fed meeting. >>

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. mr. ferro often writing that book. lisa abramowicz here and kaylee -- kailey during duty this morning. it is a morning of upgrades. christopher harvey with a complex note on the macro and model of it all. he goes up single-digit return. lisa: the amazing thing is 4825 is his projection. basically, from bear to one of the biggest bulls on wall street at a time when there cannot be a fast enough upgrade. the question is what is underpinning that? we are looking at low yields, low growth and the upgrades are coming on the heels of that. tom: you correctly state that he goes from gloom to optimism, high single digits, 7-8% return. jackson hole babble is based offer earnings. lisa: it is based offer earnings, on traditional performance. new get returns like the ones we have gotten so far, it is rare to get a drawdown. it is also looking at the idea that the stock market is not the economy. companies have been able to pass on higher prices to consumers, they have been abl