this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: i am lisa abramowicz, in for jonathan ferro.his is "bloomberg real yield." time now for the auction block, where we kick things off in europe. issuance, about 31 billion euros. in the united states, high-grade bond sales topping $33 billion this week, the largest volume in nearly two months. in the cell phone market remaining steady since the busiest week in january. roughly $3 billion. recommending investors stick with higher quality names. take a listen. >> it is not like everything else is hunky-dory and the economy is on fire and you are seeing a move up in spreads. we have got the double whammy of the recent move up in spreads at the same time demands are slowing. problematic for lower quality companies, for lower quality trade, i think is very much in that territory. victoria joins us, alongside james keenan and lotfi karoui, who are still with us. victoria, we will start with you. what are the growth scares you are seeing right now? victoria: lisa, look, we are focused on the quality. we have a little bit of exposure to h

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: and messy and low rate era. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro is off but kailey leinz and with all of her knowledge. are we there yet? have we seen capitulation? how much further do we have to go? people are trying to buy. tom: futures up seven. futures have not been red this morning. at 2:17 a.m. we had the peak enthusiasm of the day and it has been down on the constant of going negative. but maybe with the president's announcement to saudi arabia and futures getting a little bit green on the screen. >> what i gather is a lack of understanding and what is driving this. yes, it was inflation friday, but what is the response mechanism? you have been covering this well. the fed poised to raise rates by 75 basis points, maybe. would that be perceived as a good thing or a bad thing for markets looking for harder action from the fed? kailey: interesting question and frankly, we are not going to know the answer until 2:00 tomo

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures up .5%, trying to hold onto these gains. tom: the vix has worked down another notch. the unspoken story this morning is now oil lifts. it is up 6.5% according to commerce bank and it has a further lift in the last hour with brent crude $117 a barrel, not where we were a week ago. jonathan: china at the epicenter of nato talks in madrid today and the next couple days and at the epicenter of price action, too. tom: i wanted to talk about including turkey, sweden, and finland. the china story to me is in the headlines. they are trying to reopen. jonathan: i will get excited when they get rid of the quarantine. lisa: going from 14 days to 10 days. this is not a removal of the zero covid policy. this is a temporary reprieve to actually help support global growth. how long it will last, how much uncertainty this will cast remains to be seen. jonathan: no clue what c

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. as g7 leaders confront similar problems. tom: just in the last 20 minutes we started to see the markets, all sorts of little tweaks and nudges across the terminal indicating a return to what we saw two or three weeks ago. they will return home to the same challenges. jonathan: central bankers are confronting them. we are from president lagarde we will hear from chairman powell. the speech was interesting, laying out what they have to do and opening up for a bigger move down the road. you'll hear a lot more of that in the future. set to go 25 basis points in july. the door is open to move away from that and maybe go further down the road. lisa: frontloading is a word we will hear again and again from the san francisco fed president talking about how the 75 basis point rate hike is on the table. they got it so wrong and this is spooking everyone that they misunderstood how sticky inflation would be. don't want to let it get entrenched. jonathan: looking for 8.6%. a little bit earlier th

tom: is a g7 show where lisa abramowicz is looking german alps. hy place they get to go to. jonathan: every time -- lisa: every time we have maria tadeo you start lobbying for road trip. tom: the road trips we are talking about are not nearly as romantic as that. lisa: i think the subject matter is not as romantic and they are facing catastrophic moments in trying to pull it together and come to some cohesion among a bifurcated time when it comes to economic outlooks. tom: 0.57 percent on the 10 year real yield. it has gone back a little bit and that hope to get normal rates. lisa: this goes to what kathy was saying and i think this is an incredibly important point. what is the bigger risk? the fed goes too far or does not go far enough and there is a protracted inflationary impulse? that is the tension. when you talk about the real yields, that goes to this feeling the fed will not be aggressive enough because they're are worried about causing deep recession. that is the fear you are seeing play out on the margins this morning after the strong dat

jonathan: -- lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm. futures down one point 3% as we look about. tom: you say brutal first half, i'm going to say brutal thursday. the taken micro details, down 19,000, 80,000 with bankruptcies, liquidation is what the british call that. up to 115, recession, economic growth slowdown and the global system, everybody but the yen screams strong dollar. jonathan: this has been a difficult message to swallow, inflation down, tied to financial conditions as part of the objective and even with the price action we have seen, but the fed chairman, different to what we have seen in the previous 10 years, endorsing it. his words yesterday, markets have been pretty well aligned to where we are going. tom: moments ago, a 103 print on euro. that speaks volumes. 103.97 on euro, that is the challenge for christine lagarde, that is how central banks become overcome. jonathan: largely on the back of some fact

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning on a tuesday. we are thrilled you are with us. jonathan ferro, a much needed true vacation. kailey leinz is in for jon ferro. lisa, what i learned on my sojourn of a four day weekend is it is simple. inflation is here and it is here in spate. lisa: and it the remainder of this year. when i look at the equity notes, it is not about if there will be recession but how deep it will be. tom: we will discover that across the ark of this week. less economic data may be in normal weeks. we can play this game all day, it is a new game. the price of milk on a moving averages study is up 66% off of the pandemic lows. everybody has got their own story on inflation. what is the story for jerome powell? lisa: what is the story as he has to testify before the house tomorrow -- the senate and that the house after. this is increasingly the question, what damage to they have to do to the economy and the labor market in order to get the price of milk down to something more reasonable fo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for being with us on radio and television. next thursday, the midmarket of 2022. there is only one word out there, recession. lisa: recession as we look at a correction and a bear market. we see a rally continuing today. the nature of gains highlights the conservative nature of investors, people hiding out with the safer stocks. tom: price up, yield down. 3.01%. what have you seen away from full facing credit? lisa: it depends how deep the recession is. this has been the theme of the weekend that year, how deep other contours of this recession? do you get income from some of these higher-rated assets like investment grade credit? you continue to see outflows we have not seen in history for bond funds. there is a feeling we have further gloom to go if we get some sort of recession. tom: in all that can be said here as we will readjust over the weekend and really think about the path forward, kailey leinz in for jon ferro, what is the item you see i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. it is payrolls friday. jamie dimon says that hurricane is coming. elon musk has a super bad feeling. tom: he does it his own way, but this is the beginning of what we will see, which is 2% here, 4% they are rationalization. it is not the rationalization, it is the rapidity of it. we are talking may and june what we would normally be talking about in september. we are speeding up the path. jon: you said it repeatedly the last few weeks, this is what could be in. looking at job cuts of 10%, a hiring pause. you say this will not just be tesla? tom: they will look at demand. this is what corporations do. a real controversial view on the game the fed plays to the end of the year based on demand. corporations are not different than jerome powell. they will adjust a la musk in his own clumsy way. they will adjust now. lisa: there is the elon musk aspect. who does this? what co comes out and says i have a really bad feeling, it's super bad, i might have to cut 10%? it leaves me wanting more specifics. you are getti

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, ivan barrow and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city come out the morning about this is bloomberg: surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom and an ice back-and-forth, different trends we are seeing including -- tom: a nice back-and-forth, different trends we are seeing. make jokes it is a snooze fest, what would christine lagarde do for gas? jonathan: there set to announce the end of qe, laying the groundwork for a rate hike and maybe another. the forecast we get in the purser -- presser, it could be ugly later. tom: it's different than america, in the united states, jason bleated out in the wall street journal. there is a huge difference across the atlantic and we can't say the lagarde press conference is like a powell press conference. jonathan: that is what i'm expecting again and again. lisa: and that will be a dovish surprise for the market that will believe ecb is not getting ahead of inflation, but they are bringing in a 20 point rate hike for the july meeting

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a messy first half, from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures down at 1.2% on the s&p. what about q2? tom: an ugly q2, knowing focused on off of the panel yesterday with francine lacqua, madame lagarde giving a focal point of a one or 4.29 -- 104.9 -- 104.29 euro. jonathan: they want to take on inflation, that is the objective and they hope they don't take down growth. but the goal is to get inflation down. the hope is we don't get negative growth and that message was loud and clear yesterday. tom: growth is on and the messages to lie, like 15 or 16, jp morgan, but we will see coming off the thursday claims is a recalibration by the sell side of where o-rings --earnings are there to be. jonathan: we talk about it, the junk, 1000 basis points. it is getting messy. lisa: the first time going back since 2020, persistent messiness is catching people's at

find that color for lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. u.s. democrats appeared to be considering new energy legislation rate 42% on companies with a profit margin greater than 10%. democrats in congress are struggling to lower energy costs. germany's economy had a quick recovery in may with industrial projects increasing. almost 7% contraction, better than -- the u.k. has canceled its fight. they said there is a risk of irreversible harm for asylum-seekers. european central bank's governing counselors ready to step in if it considers moves in on markets to be unjustified. so they are open to -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. >> i don't want to hear anymore of these lies about reckless spending.

alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro with damian sassower.ields higher about a couple basis points, 1.2162 -- 3.2162. it has a 3 handle now. the euro-dollar negative about one third of 1%. this story just crossing from the washington post -- the second paragraph, biden officials taking a second look at whether the federal government can send rebate cards out to millions of american drivers to help them pay at gas stations. lisa: but the second or third line is also fascinating, that in the past, they have rejected this idea because of a shortage in chips needed to make that card. just highlighting how multifaceted some of the shortages have been. you couldn't make up the fact that they couldn't get the rebate cards and enough supply because of the chips. you really want to basically keep demand at the same level? this is the existential question. do you want to keep demand at the same level and have this be a supply level that cannot be fixed and you end up in this inflationary spiral, or do you go at this differently? jonathan: even if the a

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. on the nasdaq, down .1%.gher by three or four basis points. 3.01%. wti with a 120 handle. more than 1% on the session. year to date, more than 60%. citigroup making some adjustments coming into the week. they raised our second quarter brent crude forecast to 113. fourth-quarter forecast by $12, 85. compare that 85 at citi tumor goldman are at, that is a widespread. tom: this is the privilege we have, working with bloomberg hydrocarbons coverage but also digging deep into the analysis of global thinkers. looking at the global macro moment of this commodity boom. head of commodities at citigroup, has a bit of an outlier call. ed morse, and we get back to oil fundamentals at your call of $90 a barrel? what breaks the ascent of oil? ed: the catalyst is supply and demand. we have to get through the next few weeks to see if there is a driving season over the summer. underlying the differences of you is what we think is raising prices now. what we think are raising prices now are the dislocations that have occurred

lisa abramowicz and tom keene here.ing for an important conversation with the president of lithuania with maria tadeo. we turn to the global head of g10 strategy at bank of america. let's start with first principles. what's wrong with a strong dollar? >> there's nothing wrong about it. it is consistent with the fundamentals. it is overvalued compared to the long time equilibrium, but the fed is the most hawkish central bank out there. they are dealing with an over shifting economy while other economies are dealing with supply shocks. also at aversion is supporting the dollar, the terms -- risk aversion is supporting the dollar, the terms of trade. there are specific reasons why the dollar is strong. even though the fed is focused on inflation, a strong dollar is the result. tom: this came up twice yesterday. the bank of japan has a policy in place. they haven't blinked. i hearken back to 1992 and george soros and the bank of england. is there someone in the market overtly trying to do a soros redux or is that just ficti

alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. t.k. taking a long weekend. coming into today, we are down 6% on the s&p 500 this week alone. lisa: we saw the lowest levels going back to 2020. looking at certain models that show the s&p is pricing in an 85% chance of recession in the united states in the near term. so are we there yet? jonathan: and how much damages this fed preparing -- willing to do, inflict on this economy? lisa: a lot of people say they are willing to cause a recession in order to bring prices down, the pace of price increases down. but as we happen talking about, let's see how strong that commitment is when we started see negative prints on the jobs numbers, the weakening data come in, and question how much the tightening is actually bringing prices down considering where the shocks are coming from. jonathan: starting to see credit break down just a little bit. are you seeing any sign of stress emerging in this market? damian: absolutely. lack of balance sheet elasticity will be the question. we are completely focused on that. mortgage r

tom: lisa abramowicz and tom keene. we continue our coverage tomorrow. jobs day. dip into the service at st. paul's cathedral for the queen's jubilee. lisa: how will you prepare for that? tom: i will read my christopher wray and architecture. lisa: do you have a hat? you should wear a hat. tomorrow's jobless report is one of the key reports will be getting. i am looking at those jobs numbers for some sense of what the fed can cling to for that patients so many people think can happen as we get to neutral. tom: this is an interesting market. we will continue on radio and television. thomas petrie, one of the most knowledgeable on american oil at the 12:00 hour. stay with us. this is bloomberg. >> welcome back to another special update for bloomberg tv and radio from tennis careful data from tennis channel. the women semifinals are set. she extended her win streak to an incredible 33 win streak. the polar star on her way to the semis for the second time in her career. the russian describe the victory as a dream come true after closing out the hard-fought win in the s

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. on radio, on television, and obsolete extraordinary fed day. the ecb gets out front of jerome powell and holds an emergency meeting of what we have reported is mystery. all we can do is look at euro-dollar, which moments ago began to give way from the enthusiasms of the morning. jonathan: we are still waiting for a statement. for the ecb it is about numbers. the spread between italy and germany last summer was inside 100 basis points. yesterday it threatened to blast through 2.50% and beyond. tom: it is the banking problem as well. very different than in america. i am thunderstruck they are doing this meeting out front of the federal reserve of the united states. jonathan: what are they going to do, wait to see what happens with the federal reserve meeting? they are seeing the outcome front and center. it is the one they are worried about, fragmentation. they know the detail they put out last week to address the potential fragmentation is not enough because this market needs to see a

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a job stay here in america. is it target, flat on its back america, or as an american airlines to the moon? jonathan: there is a data point for everyone. the airlines telling a story about a consumer that is very resilient in the face of higher prices, a company bearing -- being very disciplined. i could put it to scott kirby. he says something a year and a half ago i couldn't believe -- that business travel would come back and come back quickly. he was dead on. tom: the interviews we have had with airlines guys with guy johnson -- there has been underestimatoin of the business spirit out there. will we see that in today's jobs report? jonathan: are we underestimating the resiliency and strength of this economy? if we are, what does that mean about the work the fed needs to do to take demand out of it to get inflation back down? tom: inflation the story front and center, certainly for the president, speaking later today, and for the secretary of labor, speaking with jon. lisa: how will they try to position this

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 0.5% on the s&p. more data still to come stateside, and the data so far, so good. tom: it is going to be interesting on claims and on jobs data tomorrow, and maybe you get a reaffirmation of recession. maybe not. the gloom crew is flat out wrong. the fed is fighting the last war. jonathan: you saw the reaction in the market. yields higher, treasuries lower. the conclusion, the fed has more work to do. tom: dollar resilient as well. have we broken through? no. is there any drama and the data check this morning? no. but we have a real reversal in the gloom. jonathan: in wti and brent, we came so close to one junta $20 in wti -- to $120 on wti. lisa: a decline in output from russia. how do you gauge the time -- gauge the decline given the fact that a lot of their oil is floating

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. lisa: cracks deepening in the economy as exemplified by an ever weakening yen. this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro is off, kailey leinz is very much in. dollar-yen weakening to the weakest going back to 98 versus the dollar. tom: it is not only weak yen but the rate of change, and the estimates of where this really matters for our listeners and viewers. nouriel roubini in doha this morning looks at 140, not too far from a 136. lisa: how much is this pushing the bank of japan see how far they have to go, highlighting the strain transmitted through the fx channels as the bank of japan keeps its thumbs on its bond? tom: the institution of culture is stunning. it is not dated, it is just so rigid in the process,i can onlya breaking point in a gradual process here. lisa: i would argue a lot of this depends on how much conviction the federal reserve has in terms of tightening. do they really have the appetite to spur a deep and long recession. that is really underscoring every ana

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tom: john, we are supposed to get the cpi friday. we look at corporation adapting and adjusting, target adapts again. jonathan: it is more than just target. you see it from target, walmart, others as well. margin pressure. is it just the retailers or will others follow? tom: let's say they clear out their problems right now, let's be optimistic about that, then what? into autumn of 2023? tom: they think things get better. the problem is for a lot of people in this market, this is the second time in three weeks the target has done this. are they right about the second half? tom: financially dovish. mark cabana talking about --. the way interest rates are moving in europe. jonathan: the ecb and the federal reserve both have a dovish tail. if you have gotten your from mars and look around on earth and saw inflation, you would say it is very dovish. lisa: this is what is really fitting into target. at what point are we looking at a rate hike in the first half of the year translating into

for a while this morning, lisa abramowicz. sa: interesting to see even after i somewhat hawkish statement from the ecb, even still, you are not seeing euro strength persist as the fed is expected to have to respond to what we get out. what the pros are looking for is a core cpi stripping our energy, food. the amount people are getting paid and how much cannot persist before you start seeing it bleed into sentiment, bleed into what they actually end up buying. we do get a read on the latest sentiment from the university of michigan for the month of may. this is expected to continue to decline to the lowest we have seen back to 2011. this is what people are watching to determine if you see a loss and momentum of the consumer. tom: why don't you finish up with the president in long beach and that i want to talk to you about what we see in consumer expectations of inflation. lisa: president biden will be at the port of los angeles talking about inflation. that is one of the few things he can do to address this. supply chain issues

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. sa: looking forward to a consumer sentiment reading. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene. kailey leinz without. how fragile is the data we are about to get? tom: the data is critical. this is looking at five years and the guesstimate is another five years and the question is inflation finally anchored as it has been predicted or is it unanchored and that squishy concept. what it means is a lot of uncertainty within the market. we certainly heard that this morning. lisa: uncertainty is the word of the year and the word of the moment in light of the fact that we hear this optimism some jim bullard about earnings, consumers, the strength of the u.s. economy in light of a rally into bonds that indicate slowing growth and something more recessionary. try putting those two ideas together. tom: this is about resiliency. goldman sachs is looking for a tad bit american economy in q4, what he is suggesting is the system is in place including the balance sheet of individ

it doesn't impress lisa abramowicz. talking about week sterling. 122 on pound sterling. sa: this is the issue. as we see $.18 behind biden's children. how much is this an international issue that in germany is being dealt with so profoundly differently. we go from europe to washington, d.c.. as you await your interview with the lithuanian president, we hear about germany preparing to ration gas supplies to start rationing who can use energy and when if they fall below a certain point. how is that being read in the german population as we talk about the u.s. pushing back even for $.18? >> you can hear the panic in the voice of the german economy minister today who now says we are in a situation where russia can decide unilaterally to completely cut off gas from now until the winter and the timing of this is very particular. we have seen that over the past two weeks russia has limited in major ways. the italians say they lie about the technical issue and the germans don't believe it either. we have seen a reduction in gas supplies to the big clients they have in europe. the

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. equity futures up percent on the s&p. what a week we have got coming up. tom: two weeks in, we have the fed meeting as well. but ecb front and center. what is interesting, after a job stay, the monday after a sort of clunky -- the headline today's the jump condition in copper, optimism of china reopening. jonathan: we push onto cpi friday. -- the summer of volker, no fun until the fed is done. tom: it will be data-dependent. with an 8.3% statistic, what if we overshoot that, come in underneath? research shows us it is an ambivalence. it is like we just have to wait. you think -- jonathan: we start to see price targets come in. we will check in with lori calvasina in a couple minutes. lisa: pretty much across the board, perhaps we have come across people pessimism. the idea of my ozone of morgan stanley saying we will probably start to see company start to remov

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro. equities up in a big way last week. tom: there's a quality here. there certainly big action in the technology companies. there are some summer distractions. tesla, twitter and all that. but you mentioned the energy certitude, just a whisper of that disappearing last week. jonathan: marathon down hard. all of those names have been absolutely hammered. we've got to ask why yields lower over the last week. tom: i know you didn't see the recession on your sojourn in the mediterranean. lisa was nonstop all week. lisa: let's be very clear because i get hate mail sometimes. you wish for a recession. i get hate mail for being too gloomy. the reality is everyone's hoping for a soft landing. last week was the week of meaning and perhaps we are going to get a softer slow down a cello or -- a shallower recession. people are reassessing whether we have moved to four -- 24 -- whether

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa ran bridge -- lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. tom: summer, september 2 is the biggest report of the year. jonathan: then we get to the fed meeting in the big debate about whether we get a pause. we have had pushback. tom: are we going to be at neutrality as we end the summer? julia coronado, i thought, was brilliant. to be get into destruction mode in the autumn months as we try to figure out were neutral is? jonathan: we have had a lot of complaints this year. -- this week. tesla, elon musk. a warning internally saying he has a super bad feeling. lisa: i've had that song in my head," i have got a feeling." what does this actually mean? can we take him at his word? 10% of his staff to cut is specific. is he looking at supply chain issues in china, demand issues? what is going on here to lead him to have this super bad feeling? jonathan: in the last hour, we did talk about companies failing to come out and talking about how bad things might be. we are certain to hear more and more from companies. we heard from microsoft yesterday,

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: everybody is talking over the weekend. clearly recession, gazing recession. we are going to do that with gary in just a moment. lisa: commentators talking about , the u.s. -- the university of michigan survey -- to go big or go home. how much are we looking at a shallow recession or a deep one. that is really the question we are morphing into. tom: i am not a commodity expert report -- i am not a commodity expert but to call it live cattle, it up 60% of the pandemic. we had milk up 60%. this is the inflation into this recession debate. lisa: i can always tell when you have gone to the grocery store because there is this renewed shock at different aisles on how much things have gone up. you come in with your anecdotes about milk and beef. tom: what in the grocery store mattered to you this weekend? lisa: what i was looking at were cans of soda. i saw them at 7.5 ounces. that is the shrink inflation. small areas, get less for spending more. tom: thank you for the comments. we really

tom kene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. futures positive on the 2/10. 2.87.85.n with this this morning. the fed is mild inflation forecast and need explaining. tom: it is a brilliant note. william dudley is the former president of the new york fed. we are thrilled that he could join us this morning. buried in your essay on inflation is a single sentence on what it means for the labor market. april of 2020, 14 .7% unemployment rate. 4% at the beginning of the year, now down to 3.6%. i need you to explain to our listeners and viewers why it is the fed's job to move the unemployment rate, as you state, about 4%. bill: the labor market is the tightest it has been, and you see that in the ratio of unfilled jobs compared to unemployed. 1.9-1. we have a labor market that is unprecedentedly tight. the fed needs to loosen that up where wage pressures mow accumulate, and that will keep inflation above the 2% objective. the problem is it has been difficult to push the unemployment rate up meaningfully without precipitating a hard landing. that is what the fed will try to d

. >> this is over go to bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures up .6%. it is decision time. tom: it is decision time and there was a shift yesterday afternoon. bill dudley who we will have on the show today, he came out and said this is a 75 point meeting and the market shifted. jonathan: he is not allowed. barclays, deutsche bank, jeffries, a long list of companies and banks looking for 75. let's say they go with 75. what is next? tom: what is next will be what is in the press conference. 75 and what comes next. dominic konstam coming up in it moments on this huge distinction of this meeting. jonathan: before we get there there's another central-bank decision. i woke up this morning on expecting this. the ecb. lisa: they're having an emergency meeting to address italian yields. they are watching spreads blowout to 2020 levels. it is a conundrum. those names are at odds. what did they say at this meeting other than sit around and say what we do? jon

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene on bloomberg radio and television.preparation for the panel of the year. i like what the bis set off of the report in geneva. there is no respite for the global economy. jonathan: mike mckee is with us. walk me through what you are looking for from this panel set to begin in a couple of minutes. mike: the obvious question flows from what kit was saying, how far do they go and how fast? i'm not sure anyone has a good answer. officials focus on the idea that we don't know what will happen going forward. a lot of what is in inflation right now comes from external shocks that we could still face. while we know we have to raise rates, why do it all at once? there's an argument made to ripping off the band-aid, but in case you are wrong, you can do these big rate hikes: forward. the other point to come out of this, the inflation problem is different in each of these three central banks. in the u.s., it is covid and the war, energy prices, external stimulus from the fiscal side. the brits have energy prices and brexit. much o

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we are back on track. lots of distractions in the last hour. it is about inflation, recession. william dudley says it is about a hard landing. lisa: specificity is what struck me about the column published this morning, talking about how it is inevitable that we will get a recession in such a short time frame, building on what others have said, that there is a growing chance of a downturn. now the question is how steep it will be. tom: this is the gaging of the many different types of recessions. we do not need a history lesson, but each one is different and lisa, you mentioned the distinction between two world-class phd's, the gentle recession, dudley with a hard landing. what about the hard landing? lisa: whether he will be the new volker of 2022 is the distinction, how much has the fed committed to getting inflation back down to 2%, but eminently by the end of next year versus five or 10 years out? how much of the urgency is about getting inflation numbers and check shows and they are creeping higher ove

joe: from new york city for our >> from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am lisa abramowiczthe open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue, forecasting the fed's next move. >> i don't think there was really anything new in chair '

senior advisor for bloomberg economics, and the former new york fed president, speaking with lisa abramowiczailey leinz. more predictions coming through on whether we will see a deep recession in the u.s.. annabelle joins us now for morning calls. whatever hearing from the anz? annabelle: they are taking the glass half-full here, saying that a social should be for some reasonable slowdown, but not panic about it yet. yes, all cycles do and end at some point and in this case it ended in the early months of this year, but to jump from the least risky period of the economic cycle into a deep recession by the end of 2023, they say that is quite a leap. deep recession that's usually require some sort of financial exits in the system to exacerbate the effect of tightening, but anz research says the u.s. economy is strong, and corporate and household balance sheets are also healthy. he says that will help cautioned the slowdown as well. so their base case is that the u.s. economy will slow down sometime in 2023, but the silver lining is that business can operate smoothly, we will see inflation bein

with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance. one year ago, brent crude up 66% in 12 months. jonathan: the s&p 500, a massive move. that is where bank of america is still pretty comfortable taking that exposure in the equity market. tom: everything we do we talk about the fed, the president, ecb, all of it is backed by a commodity foundation which is a commodity boom. jonathan: which is why a lot of people think the fed has a job to do, take out demand. bill dudley said moments ago that the challenge for the fed is so difficult. how do you take out that demand from a hot labor market, rebalance supply and demand and do that without having on a plumbing climbing? in reality, that is so difficult. tom: 14% unemployment, down to 3%. maybe bill wants to model 24%. what is the risk that all of a sudden 4.1% becomes 5.1? that is onyx optimal to americans. jonathan: are they still hiking? cpi will be going in a different direction, or maybe it won't. that is the fear, you end up in a situation where inflation persists and growth goes lo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. tom -- an important friday. six days from that media point. kailey leinz is in for jonathan ferro. is he back monday, lisa? it's like 50-50, right? [laughter] he is on a runway wherever he is and he can't get home because of reddish airways or whatever. lisa: we can look forward to his return. there is an issue of what happened this week, it was a fascinating week. maybe biggest question, is the bond market rally we have seen a good or bad thing for risk assets? what does it mean? tom: the spread has not removed all that much, maybe it is a churn. we will look at that with amy wu silverman. what i want to go to the tea leaves out there, javier blas on hydrocarbons nails it. on the european coal, he is noting, $434 per ton. a little more than $100 per turn from where it was during the invasion. this is a serious statistic. lisa: it is, because of the plan germany has in place. if they pass the threshold in terms of depletion of their natural gas, they are going to tur

from our new york viewers i am lisa abramowicz, the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everythingto get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue, more fuel for the

jonathan: good, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, futures positive .5% on the ecb. the ecb coming 45 minutes away, onto uscp tomorrow morning. tom: the press conference will not be boring, very interesting and her statement in the beginning, and for nuance, what is the nuance you will listen for? jonathan:, the debate over 25 or 50. poke dutch pushing hard for move today, bigger move in the future, the president wants to maintain optionality in this weather moving so slowly. today is about laying the groundwork for the next meeting, unwinding q. week, finishing, doing a couple times and waiting to see. you know better than most that you can be overtaken by events and the ecb has been overtaken by the events of inflation of the last 12 months. tom: i want to emphasize this is different than a fed discussion. i'm going to go back to the core monthly payments people make. the utility bill structure of greater europe is front and center for christine lagarde. jonathan:, skyhigh and the u.k. example outside of the euro zone, where people's energy bills have been

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures negative more than 2%. tk, the bank of england up next. tom: it is every central bank for themselves, and you wonder where the bank of japan slips into this. the news right now is so extraordinary that we need a stagger from the hawkish, bank by bank by bank. how did they deal with the oecd 2.8% global growth next year? is it a forced recession? is it a forced global slowdown? jonathan: what did scott minerd say yesterday? we saw it there in the opening part of this program, fantasyland again. he is not believing those forecasts and believe they could be worse. tom: mr. minerd has an opinion, but more importantly we need to redux what bill said yesterday. the answer is the president of the new york fed, the esteemed william dudley, was scathing how this is a rose-colored view. jonathan: rates are going up. lisa, the market is doing the talking this morning. equities down, yields higher. lisa: the ecb is going to have to act, and that is the clear message we got. also the swiss national bank raised rates for

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. on radio, on television, a monday after the jobs report and more even for than i expected. coming up, must listen for global wall street, the past a higher yield. jonathan: higher yields through next year as well. talking up a yield north of 3% not just this year, but next year as well in the first half of 2023. try to reconcile that with the view over at deutsche bank. they are looking for a severe drop off in economic growth. tom: all sorts of different opinions reframed as we go to the midyear review. certainly equity markets like they see. people can give you a level, but you need a timeline as well, and the morgan stanley timeline is out there somewhere. that is the economist linda ronstadt out there somewhere. jonathan: michael williamson has been pretty clear, 3400 on the s&p. that is the downside he is looking for by mid to late august. tom: ok, that is the gloom view, but there is some optimism as we mentioned in the last hour. i'm going to go with

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, the oecd joining the world bank to look ahead to the next year or two. tom: it's like doubt 10,000 is how i would put it. global growth of 3% is down 10,000. feels different from 3% wto, sub-3%. oecd comes in at a solid 3%. jonathan: i will move past this because we are friends. it didn't take him long, did it? let's get back on the rails. tk, pushing $134-yen. tom: things are not unraveling. i don't want to be inflammatory, but the market is absolutely fascinating. vincent reinhart would say, level doesn't matter, it is the rate of change and the rate of change of the rate of change, the second derivative. they are in play now. german 10-year and japan, we could spend the whole show on japan. jonathan: let's start there. lisa, the japanese government on market did not trade once in yesterday's session. today yields higher in the u.s., higher in germany. what are they doing in japan? nothing at all. they are increasingly isolated. it is in the fx market and everyone else is pushin

to discuss exclusively with lisa abramowicz on bloomberg surveillance. >> attitudes are more balancedhere is euphoria, optimism , risk tolerance. that's a difficult climate for the value investor one of the six tenants of our philosophy by believe in thoroughly that we are not market timers. that means two things. we never sell to raise cash to prepare for a decline, we never say it will be cheaper in six months so we will wait. if it's cheaper we will buy more. that works much better. >> investors are shooting for 8%. we talked about that extensively. this idea that that seems completely unachievable in an era of quantitative easing. high-yield bonds have an average of more than 7%. is this the best you have seen for pensions? >> that's right. many have hit bogeys. it didn't look that rare. so many have surprised on the upside. as you point out, one of our big activities is high-yield bonds. a year ago, they were yielding in the threes of percent. one deal was done in the twos. as you say, the yield is in the seventh. a pension fund is needed to make use of high-yield bonds. when eve