lisa: we are allowed to pause. jonathan: this is great therapy. lisa: therapy for us. ed meeting, forget about that. i'm way more worried about revenues and earnings than that. jonathan: are you, tom? on what side of things are you more worried about revenue than earnings? tom: do you know what, that is a beleaguered question. my brilliant answer right now is i guess i'm more worried about revenue because that is not what the pros are worried about. they are worried about earnings. jonathan: bouncing back after five days of losses. up 6/10 of 1% on the s&p. tom: two shots. two shots. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of taper from the ecb or the fed. >> they won't do it in september, i don't think. i think they will announce in december that tapering will start from january. >> we are in a place of strategic ambiguity. >>>> we know for a fact every time something goes wrong, we come back with even more policy stimulus. >> there's a serious debate going on, and they have agreed until di

lisa: are you trying to send us a message? jonathan: thank you. you done with your data check? i don't want to step on you. dow futures edging toward -700. we're on a stoop -- we are on a two standard deviation move down. jonathan: tough start to the session. tom: we have a lot to talk about. a very gracious guest joins us with bloomberg intelligence. is this a correction? >> certainly not yet. technically we have only just moved off of our highs. i think we have weaker momentum than the price decline so far, which would suggest more weakness coming. frankly this is overdue. we have had some signals in the u.s. equity market with reflection to inflation and margin weakness for months. now you have this bigger risk off move, which is emanating from a more globalized source of risk, which is adding to the downside pressure. it is certainly not a correction yet. tom: you have all the parchment. what does by the dip mean to you this morning? >> not a lot when you have this degree of risk intolerance. the small-cap index down 2.5% is a pretty significa

lisa, not many people are going to want to touch this. the communication from the federal reserve will be undermined by things like this. lisa: albeit, that is controversial. the fed's policies prop up markets when they make their bold moves and given their hesitance to taper, even though there is some pretty strong inflation data also supported of markets, what does that mean? they are betting on something -- jonathan: this is individuals and congress, too. -- this is individuals in congress, too. lisa: no one is cracking down on it. jonathan: regulatory capture of some sort. equity futures down five. i need to stay out of trouble. fx market, euro weaker going into the ecb tomorrow. on radio and tv, this wednesday morning, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in the u.k., parliament is expected to vote for boris johnson's call for new taxes. they would go to improving social gaps. it will help trim budget deficits. president biden toward new york and new jersey after remnants of hurricane ida pummeled it. mexico, and historic

males ages 45 are more likely to freak out and up their portfolio during a downturn. lisa great story. jonathan: do take that personally, tom? tom: we are freaking out. go to cash. jonathan: coming up, a lady who thinks you should not get a cash. anna han of wells fargo. catching up with anna in about 20 minutes. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate republicans have blocked a bill that was a spent the debt ceiling until september 2022 and would've kept the government operating past the end of the fiscal year. that increases the pressure on democrats to find a way to raise the debt ceiling and avert a crippling default. they may now have to use a budget procedure that could take two wakes. european nations dominate the covid resilience tracking. ireland is at the top of the survey. norway fell to 10th. ireland has been moving up since the start of 2021 when it had the worst outbreak in the world. the delta variant has left the u.s. flailing, it is down to number 28. two of canada's largest gold miners are combinin

although my kids are too young to be vaccinated, if they were available, i would have the vaccine. lisabout the vaccination rollout during hurricane season and natural disasters that are bound to occur in the fact that the health system has to respond to other crises. how fragile has the health system become its focus on covid as a response to the rest of the issues that naturally come up? >> is incredibly fragile. if you've ever been to an emergency room for something, you know you have to wait a long time. we are always operating at a high level of occupancy and volume on a day to day, absent of pandemic, absence of a hurricane or you have to evacuate people who are in the hospital. it's incredibly difficult. even if we see a small surge of covid nations, that will put a strain on the whole system so that means if you show up with covid or a heart attack, the level of care you will get is probably not going to be the same. we all have a role to play in this affects all of us. we want to survive illnesses work conditions and that so much harder to do when we have a pandemic raging and

and we are positive here bring positive .3%. lisa: i'm watching the norwegian krone had because the norwegian central bank become the -- became the most 10 traded currencies to raise interest rates. they lifted off of zero. we will see what the bank governor here on bloomberg television at 7:15 a.m. are we seeing a successful and graceful exit to emergency policies by central banks? are we seeing that effectively as we get to more hawkish rhetoric from the central banks? that has yet to be seen because of the yield curve flattening that we see on the long end. however, this does seem to be sort of a tantrum list process. 8:30 a.m., jobless claims, it is for 320000 and i am curious to see if we can get there. people are also looking for job creation which we will not see but because of the september 6 expiration of the enhanced on employment benefits. today, this i think a lot of people are focused on, evergrande has the interest payment on dollar denominated bonds due in 2022. it is unclear whether they will make it. china policy mak

lisa, yields are higher, a steeper curve. sa: people thinking it has to do with the fed remaining on hold for longer that allows inflation to rise. i wonder at what point this becomes a concern for equity investors and other risk assets. jonathan: that is the theme this morning. another theme is in munich with matt miller. this is a day in the life of matt miller. i am not even sure we can call this work for you. good morning. matt: if you love your job, then you cannot call it work, jonathan. my first time back at an auto show since march of 2019. i am happy to be back in my element. but this show is less about cars and much more about tech than it has been before. i am talking with cristiano amon , the ceo of qualcomm. it is great to talk to you because all of the other ceos i have spoken to over the past two days have been focused on chips. you must feel like the most invited dinner guest. how is it going with your business, considering the bottlenecks, the supply chain issues we have been hearing about cristiano: chips are

are so quiet. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week we have had of you. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, live. we are down 1.4%. the bond market -- it is all about ever grand. tom: it is all about ever grand. everybody is in the pool today. instantly halfway from 20 or so. jonathan: the chairman picked up the mic and said i will be gone until november, jumped the mic and then walked away. tom: you nailed this last week. two meetings beyond this. jonathan: why would you make a decision this wednesday? lisa: there is a question of inflation weighing on sentiment. consumers are pushing up the expectations and how that affects reality. these are some of the concerns that they have to address. evolution because there is not necessarily any need. he said evolution. what was i supposed to say? jonathan: 1.4%. let's whip through this section. the hang seng getting absolutely battered. the markets are hurting. down by 2.3% there. on the cusp of breaking. lisa: we could trying to get excited about that. the narr

when it comes down to the six americans out there, which are you focused on. lisa: the one third of jobs she says are not coming back. i was thinking about the question. the answer is not clear. how does the fed read that? is there a lot of slack in the labor market? those jobs are not coming back. all of the jobs that are open don't have people to fill them. i don't know the answer. the uncertainty of an economy that has been fast forwarded. tom: i want to get through this quickly. the observation from randall, they all say the same thing. the technology mystery of the labor economy is profound. jonathan: we've got to work through this. tom: that is surging. jonathan: surging by one basis point. in and around 130. we talked about that earlier this week. tom: widely anticipated. our guest to talk about the market. we have credit suisse. there strategist had 5000 spf going out. >> there is a big disconnect between the economics which are coming in weaker because of supply chain issues and covert issues and corporate profits, which are coming in at much stronger than

that is the journey we are on. lisa: is it more on the insurance side or more on the underwriting side, the investing side? thomas: i believe that on the insurance side it is even more powerful. on the investment side, we are one of many businesses, and if you want funds for a coal factory today, you will them, but on the insurance side, if you do not have insurance, you will not find any. there is a net shirov -- zero insurance allies. we are making sure that you can get the largest insurers together to see that risks are not underwritten, and we are helping our insurance oh and the companies that are in transition. lisa: has it been in -- effective? have you seen large company insurances struggle or shift their businesses in response? thomas: on the question around being involved with customer conversations, you can imagine this is not easy, but if we do not go this way, we will not make the transition. on the coal side, it has already happened. on the tradition side, it is currently putting things together. john: on

lisa: here's the thing. if one third are gone, does that mean higher wages? it could be. you hear the tone she had it? let me translate that. anne-marie is going to the open. lisa is not. we can discuss this. jonathan: you can come with me if you would like. i can get an extra seat. we are up 0.2%. yields are higher by a basis point. estimates shifting a little bit higher into payroll. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the race to succeed the prime minster in japan is seen as wide open. he said he would resign after failing to control the coronavirus surge. it was weeks before the general election. whoever becomes the next leader is assured of becoming prime minister because of the dominance and parliament. it's a tax settlement that is one of the biggest in history. the billionaire founder and his colleagues will pay billions in back taxes to resolve the case. the amount is a minimum of $6.8 billion. it deals with the way they converted short-term gains. new york and new jersey said the remnants of a hurricane that first hit new orleans killed more people in the nor

lisa: what we are looking at is a prolonged work from home scenario. the new september? what is it? somewhere in 2022? tom: i am looking at auckland and singapore. singapore is tangible. lisa: that is a different threshold. the answer probably is that there is no september and the way that people saw. it will be a drip. how they account for that will be just as difficult. jonathan: do we need a catalyst to show that there is no normal? do we need one again to regenerate those kinds of return? just purely from a market perspective. >> what would it look like? it is just the drip. fewer infections and it is exhausting. tom: it is my deep suntan from all the days i took off in august. jonathan: letting us know that he has dry skin. would you like me to suggest a moisturizing? lisa: [laughter] ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xf

we are still waiting for that to come through. lisatalking about seth carpenter who came on yesterday. the one thing he said was maybe we are seeing peak pressures on the ppi standpoint, not with wages, i wonder how important that will be going forward. jonathan: these have been massive. how can you build a narrative that is so. we appreciate it. it's a difficult moment to be in two forecast. that's for sure. tom: they can ramp down the gdp numbers. ppi today, what is the so what on it ppi given the craziness of this economy? jonathan: this week, absolutely surging. that's got to be the big change. for a long time, we talked about the world's largest economy. now, that story has changed. tom: what i have learned, at your peril do you take your eye off the business process of shipping in china. it's really important. lisa has been focused on that. lisa: she thinks we've seen peak margins in companies. this is one of the key aspect of her call in terms of the s&p forecast. they are not going to be able to pass all along to consumers. thi

there are not enough republican votes if progressives don't let that pass and that could be embarrassing. lisad democrats are going after gina raimondo, trying to gauge how much inventory of chips companies have, implying that companies are hoarding supplies to keep prices elevated to take advantage of the supply chain disruption. is there any evidence for that underlying assumption? emily: if there is any evidence we have yet to see secretary raimondo or the white house come lord with it that the -- that companies are hoarding any materials that are needed. i think this is the white house trying to figure out ways to approach what really is a global problem. we know that these shortages are because of what the -- what is happening with the delta variant in parts of southeast asia. the white house is trying to figure out what, if any role they could play to make sure shortages of items like cars, laptops, to see if they could alleviate that. this is one of the mechanisms they are looking at. using this cold war style defense and to get this information. lisa: is this related to a three point $

lisa: the idea we are watching this unfold. we are watching it happen in real time. oks like the final scene of the x-files. massive volcano, lava spewing into the air come into the ocean. lisa: it looks like my 12-year-old when he comes home from school. tom: la palma in the canary islands. on radio and television. let us listen and watch. ♪ jonathan: the turnaround for this turnaround fades. good morning. equity futures are positive, up .4 percent after yesterday's big day of losses. "the countdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. the calm after the bond market storm. >> market is rationalizing. >> the bond and equity joint selloff. >> people are closing their eyes and waiting for this to be worked out. >> we entered a high volatility regime. >> the 10 year yield at 1.5%. >> the fed has said they are changing policy. >>

we are at 74-82 -- 74 dollars $.82. lisa: we are going to hear from one of the many fed members speaking through the week, through the day. i want to hear what he has to say on the idea of supply chain disruption, higher oil prices, inflationary input, and how much is slow growth in a way concerned about. this is interesting in light of the near 1% yield on five years -- five year bonds. you can see the yield climbing to some of the highest levels we have seen going back to february of 2020. talking about the legislative agenda, house speaker nancy pelosi said she will bring the info structure bill to the floor. -- infrastructure bill to the floor. a lot of progressives will not look at this until there is an agreement on the $2.5 trillion plan. jonathan: we have a start with a fantastic guest this morning, head of the blackrock institute. you have this framework, the new nominal. the conversation we are having come out once we start raising interest rates in america, maybe the back end of next year, house people the policy

what are we seeing? lisa: let's characterize this lift. sically a lower expectation than the bulls. these are not bullish calls. 4500, it is not like this is a massive return. basically this is looking forward at a lack of reasons for the market to go down at a headline level. that is important. given what we are dealing with with the amount of money in the system and respect the alternative in the bond market, where are you going to go? jonathan: enough reasons to go down. with been talking about them consistently. they have not taken the market down. lisa: how do you take a market down when there's so much cash that has nowhere else to go? tom: she mentioned lift. someone on twitter said i look 101. do you think i need a lift? i'm doing the facelift thing. jonathan: what did that gentleman say about me? tom: lisa, do you think i need to get something done? lisa: i'm interested in the high-yield bond spreads. jonathan: i love this quote. one of them is near 101 years of age, the other has an ego in the orbit of mars. it was that? leaving l

lisa: it means fingers to the wind. jonathan: you two are joking about it, not me. don't want to get in trouble with the ecb again. lisa: again? [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like any of those diets you've already tried. it's the new way to lose weight. no stimulants, no starving, just results. results you'll keep for life. no more sacrificing to lose weight only to put it back on. no more sacrificing, period. it improves your lifestyle and delivers incredible results. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. this is the only program i have ever done that i have never deprived myself of anything. (announcer) if what you're currently doing to lose weight isn't working, or you feel like diets don't work, you're right. don't give up. g

lisa: it's an agreement of a framework of a possible deal that may get proposed. areving farther away? jonathan: it is a framework, carry-on. lisa: he didn't specify and clarified even further, how far are we from getting something done? annmarie: this moment, although vague, is important. this meeting between schumer and pelosi and treasury secretary yellen, what it is is they are getting both chambers to agree on the tax policies so that you don't have the bill going back and forth. this is really important for a lot of individuals in the house lighthouse moderates who want to know what senator manchin and senator cinema are willing to vote on so they don't have to take controversial votes and it goes to the senate, and the senate votes it down and it has to go back to the house. this is a moment where they have found some sort of agreement. we just don't know the details. lisa: the quad, the first in person meeting of the indian, australian, japanese prime minister. why is this important? annmarie: it is on the heels of their first meeting that was virtual and this

lisa, you are one dollar unchanged. lisa: i like that you get the bond market versus nicki minaj and the alexandria ocasio-cortez address at the met gala. tom: she looked stunning. lisa: 8:30 is the important number, the august cpi figure. the expectation is a 4/10 of a percentage increase. still they rise. what i am watching is how this compares to the increase we see in wages. this concerns me and it should concern the fed. even as you get consumer prices as they go to the drugstore and grocery store and pay rent, everything is going up and yet wages are not keeping pace. less than 4%. this is something i'm sure they are watching for. 1:00 p.m., apple, going to unveiled the apple 13 and the apple watch series seven. really front and center is the role of the service company following the ruling with respect to have a market and how they display other podcasts, other gaming aspects, how much revenue can derive from these services. it is what people are focused on. tonight around 10:00 p.m. in new york, in china in the m

we are still in the beginnings in that respect. lisa: we've seen a record amount of equity flows into retail funds, and i wonder what the signal for a professional for an investor like yourself really is. joe: it can be scary. we are just seeing a lot of accent savings coming through and we are not done yet. we are watching it carefully, with household sitting on $2 trillion more in savings we think there's more of state -- upside to this market. this is where you have to focus on high quality, not the lower quality equities. jonathan: good to hear from you this morning. joe quinlan from merrill and bank of america. kailey: if you recall, lise and i were on the same flight earlier this summer, and her travel companion snuck me into the delta lounge is a family member and mike tyson was there i dared lisa to go up and take a selfie with him and she said no. jonathan: family members? lisa: it is all a ruse. all i can say is mike tyson was there and he was getting a lot of people coming over and taking selfies and he was very gracious. jon

are upward pressures on prices. as for mmt, i think it is, quite frankly, profoundly misguided. lisa: roger, can we get sustained increases without more wage inflation? based on where we are, wage inflation that we are not seeing? roger: well, you can in some circumstances. i think they are pretty unlikely. you have to have either a very marked shift toward profits or big increases in external costs, which are pushing inflation for considerable time. i think, really, to continue with high inflation, we are going to be wage inflation. at the moment, there are some signs of that. it depends on where you look. in some countries, wage inflations are going up quite a lot. it makes it difficult to forecast the policy. the answers aren't always obvious. they aren't given to you on a plate. you don't suddenly think the whole process will follow immediately. it happens over time, gradual. tom: roger, one question, very important here, you worked at the bank of england, helping governor bailey. do you presume smooth curves and smooth reaction function when we are finally over with the stimulus

are returning. how quickly they will return, i cannot say. lisa: that's fair. you and i represent a little bit of history appear. you are the first black cardinal. cardinal gregory: in the united states. lisa: black american cardinal. talk a little bit about the experience of being in that role and any challenges you may have encountered being in that role. cardinal gregory: lisa, having heard your introduction, you know a great deal about my background. i am a convert to catholicism. i was born and raised in chicago . please don't hold that against me. [laughter] having and raised in an urban environment, like many african-american catholics, the schools were a primary vehicle for entering the catholic church. and so it is with me. when i knelt in front of pope francis to receive the beretta, the ring, and the assigned titular church, a lot of that heritage was running through my head at that time. what is this going to mean for me? what is this going to mean for the african-american catholic church? and what is it going to mean for the american church in gener

they are not trying to create new ways to get you money. lisa you think this narrative has been somewhat lost? some analysts talk about the tax hikes and that would have a pretty negative, fake asian on market action. is that appropriate? are do you think this could offset that for some of these companies? henrietta: i don't think the tax hikes will be anywhere near the magnitude -- you don't have to look very far to find at least one if not seven senators who will not vote for this spending. if that gets struck down, a good chunk of deficit financing any really are looking at tax hikes. as i said, you can find that in the cash -- couch cushion. just making sure people paid what they, this section on expenses, you got another 178 billion dollars. you really do not have to dig deep to offset the cost of the smaller bill and i think that is where the disconnect lies. jonathan: thank you, one of the best, i think. i know you agree. we keep going back to this, the what next on the cycle do we accelerated, the what next on the market. the what next d

so i can see if i can lisa are much higher than he did this. beverly, me, moisture and why? why nurse, i why i need for monday, we feel like she the sickle, the pull you to pull me she's not, i'm a she, she did all or do you do my last movie to little up it if i'm in the mid thought, which will make it look like, why don't you support a truly do? i mean, i mean divani is all functionalities to try to call me holly shop. me when you quit was in law was a secretary for mama or martha. a 2nd, a 15 year mark or as you consider coming up, please let me me a call you up a katana fantasy fan of his physical damage on the coma on medical, on a pasco mark long. this is jessica ship read the memoir due to the 11, what was the end of 2 years or so justin experience the new fund, me 12 essence, one the capacity one if possible. and i wanted to the the me, when you come back to my town home, i just got your pictures falls somewhere if inflation rates and generally we offer okay. the reason why i say i was calling you to see if you were to believe you have a concern i was supposed to ask

lisa: we are still under this heat dump. -- heat dome.

you are watching abc 7 news, live on abc 7, hulu live, and wherever you stream. lisah wearing blue, manifesting blue skies? lisa: we do have some haze out there. that's why we have an advisory for the weekend into labor day. we will see conditions with the blue sky after the fog clears. as you look at the map, we are still under that light blue and green. at times, you will notice the haze. we are not looking at a lot of smoke out there. it is just enough that it would be with us to the next several days. less of that on share -- onshore flow will allow smoke to drift down. it is 54 in san ramon. we have a look at the 24 hour temperature change. it is colder in oakland. it is 59 in hayward. we have some 60's with sunshine. at 2:00, santa rosa. it's a warmer day for everyone. we will see some upper 60's around half moon bay. we have less fog during the weekend. we will have triple digit heat a sunday inland. amanda: stay home, that's the recommendation from health officials for people who are not vaccinated. they're urging the white house to scale back plans to roll ou

we are starting this half-hour with a look at our weather. lisa to cool temperatures. skies are clear. we are looking at numbers in the upper 50's. 59 and sobrante. low 80's by noontime. a look at the upper 70's. we have some 90's around fairfield. we will have limited sunshi havu there. a little bit of a warm-up for the next few days. amanda: as night fell over new york city, lights beamed into the city. the annual art installation brought a close, marking 20 years since people were killed in an act of terror. former president trump visited firefighters in new york. abc seven news reporter has the story. reporter: the sun rising lower manhattan, 20 years after the most deadly attack on american soil. marking a time where fight 11 crashed into the world trade center. singing the national the sound of bagpipes. >> today of all days, we gather their memory close. reporter: defense secretary lloyd alston saying we need to be guardians of our ideals. >> we need clear heads and fearless hearts. reporter: harris spoke with humanity -- of the humanity an

the fact that you want to be defensively positioned and make sure you are ready for in the event of escalator up, elevator down. lisaare you preparing for that? jonathan: there are a range --frances: there are a range of ways. watch the fed speak and supply chains and watching china. those are the three main factors on whether we can continue the goldilocks narrative or would you have to prepare for something more uncomfortable and more stagnation. tom: do you have an entrenched terminal vector to potential gdp ? do you have an arrow sliding down over quarters and quarters and years and years to the vicinity of 2.0%? frances: 1.9% is where we have growth coming in 2026. a long wait to get there and a lot can change. through covid we expected and were hoping for fiscal that would extend over an extended period of time. a lot of productivity growth. all of those things were supposed to lift the long-term gdp, but it has not happened to the same extent. 1.9% is my peak. jonathan: chairman powell talking later with secretary yellen. i won't ask you to weigh in on the politics but i do want your understanding on what you

what are you observing in the redo of the city? lisapeople are going back to school and that is adding a lot of traffic. we have heard from a number of banks that they are prolonging when people get back to the office. the longer this drags on, how do we get back to a new normal of five days a week in a new normal or is that debt? -- is that dead? tom: are the bulls in retreat? jonathan: jp morgan leading the way there. i just heard from credit suisse and they are pointing at you have to look at what happens with growth but look at what happens with profits. that story has been good and continues to be so. tom: they are really emphasizing wrong on the earnings call. what i see is the vicks at 1943. -- 19.43. jonathan: it's a small balance of not even a 10th of 1% and the nasdaq is up slightly but the bond market has caught our attention. down one basis point. tom: i am going to go to brent crude. global crude is $74 $.55 per barrel. in minneapolis, they have a perspective away from the -- the three zip codes that dominate financial medi

are doing an exclusive deal. i am fired up. jon: it really is operation get to the weekend. lisa: literally, we were just making our weekend plans. what is going to change right now? jon: you are taking the day off, clearly you do not think it is. the projections from the federal reserve. tom: what do you think? jon: we caught up with, he said all it would take would be a change in the probabilities. pretty much everyone is forecasting no change with the ecb. tom: i look at three moving average studies and when the three averages come to a point, that describes stasis. we are not there yet, jon, but give it a week or two. jon: it is the story of the bond market. good morning to you all. we will try to make it a little more exciting as the show progresses. yields pretty much where they were last friday and the friday before that. equity futures down. a little bit of a lift in the euro. lisa: it has not been the most exciting week. this looming credibility crisis among policymakers. it all depends on policy. that is what we are looking at. this goes with respect to monetary and fis

these really are domestic issues. lisafact that the consumer is the enema driver, how closely are you watching consumer spending as the fiscal impulse rolls off and we get the rolloff of some of those checks in the next couple of months? kallum: i think from the durability of the business cycle, from that perspective, we want the sugar rush to wear off. the mystic demand has run way ahead of what producers can sustainably meet in the longer end. so let's just be happy that we are over and done with the sugar rush, and we are getting now to the up swing phase of the business cycle. the u.s. housing market in good shape. fundamentals from the perspective of u.s. household wealth at record highs. wages are rising nicely. eventually, these numbers we have seen will start to soak up potential employment from the edges of the labor market. consumer outlook in the u.s. looks pretty good. underpinning this is this fundamental confidence in what policymakers can achieve. we had a chronic attack of economic pessimism after the finan

we got to 35, do we call that the best estimate are the low estimate? lisasay the best estimate. however, i think this goes to your question come how much are we looking at the actual headline number, at the revisions in the three-month average, which still show a pretty decent question -- picture. jonathan: i will go with the least worst. what did you see the others did and do you think it will can -- persist? jim: i would say it is the least worst as well, and our goal is to be the least worst. in terms of leading up to it, i would say the daily homebase numbers in particular have been on the weak side, and certainly that was consistent with a pretty sharp slowing the leisure and hospitality category. it does look like that sector slowed pretty sharply. there was a lot of question about employment in the state and local government and certainly starting the new school year and that will be the issue for september again, but the weight of evidence is there has been significant slowing. even to 35 of course by pre-covid sanders -- standards would be pretty s

lisa: how high are the stakes for democrats?marie: they are incredibly high as you have a ton of in voting in the party -- you have a ton of infighting and the party to get the vote done. the democrats know this is their moment. unlike what many people like to think about them, they will not potentially squander it and they don't want to come back in the midterms and say we have a chance to do something that we campaigned on in the last election and we didn't do it. there is a sense that they will not squander this moment, but it is going to be difficult. lisa: we have nancy pelosi saying it is self-evident it will not be $3.5 trillion. do we have a sense of what it will be? lisa: we don't yet in terms of black-and-white. we have heard from moderate democrats signaling they would be more comfortable with something around to $20. president biden when he -- something around $2 trillion. president biden when he is folks -- when he spoke was asking what they would be comfortable with. we know that senator schumer, janet yellen, nanc

jonathan: are you suggesting people have been in their pajamas doing that? lisa are still logging on, but they are at their kitchen tables. jonathan: i never got to do that. the head of global debt and strategy. hard to reconcile the move we've seen in big tech with the move we've seen in the bond market. anything to see? >> absolutely. we saw a week number -- aweak number and it is very typical for the bear to move away from the taper. it is difficult to contemplate a scenario. we have a mountain of cash adding liquidity and it is risk on and it is rates off. that makes a degree of sense right now. what i have seen is liquidity absolutely dampening the rates. the backend is more untethered. there is an interest in europe as well. payrolls gave us an extra kick higher in rates. lisa: there has been a record number of investment-grade bond sales. yesterday, 21 issuers came to market, all-time high. are you buying into this, or do you think that this is too good for the borrowers and not all that good for the buyers? >> it is fantastic for borrowers. a risk-free wa

are getting closer to the fed's goals. that will have to keep policy in place longer. lisa look forward to that retail sales figure later in the week. what is the consumer able to do given the rolloff of some of the stimulus checks and the fact people are not necessarily getting back into a labor market still hobbled in part by covid? sarah: we will see a pretty weak number when it comes to retail sales. part of that has to do with the fact of what we are seeing in terms of autos. how much we saw sales plummet. if you look at the position of it consumers, we are seeing it weaken. we still of excess savings. given the run rate of inflation, even with today's number, it is whittling away. when you factor in the unemployment benefits rolling off, the buying power of consumers is weakening, so that does suggest you are getting somewhat closer to the supply demand balance coming better aligned. it will take some time. tom: let me talk the unspeakable. what if this is a fed, i am looking at the wonderful fomc function on the bloomberg, what if this is a fed that is not september,

lisa: hey. gio: how are you, sir? nis: five years ago, i invested in a pet business called bentley's out of chicago, and now it's a much bigger national chain. one of the benefits of having gio and lisa, the owners of bentley's, involved is the true validation of the product itself. heather: hello. how are you? lemonis: surprise, surprise. heather: i'm freaking out right now. lisa: i'm lisa. nice to meet you. heather: i know who you are. gio: i'm gio. hi. so nice to meet you. heather: and this is alex, the leash lady. lemonis: okay, so you manage this part of the company? alex: yeah, the leashes. lemonis: so let me tell you why i brought them. heather: okay. lemonis: the two of them also started a pet distribution business. heather: oh, interesting. okay. lemonis: and so we're a team now, and ultimately we'll be making the decision together. heather: wow. all right. terrifying. great. gio: why terrifying? no! ♪♪ heather: this is the classic slip lead, okay? so with the transitional leash, you pull this out, and basical

lisa: thank you. tom: the dow futures are up 100 points, because you know jon ferro will not mention it. e jobless claims were interesting in that they came in closed expectations. remember when they were all over the map? it seems like they're getting closer each time, which means we are getting into a more normal situation. i wonder, analyst estimates are coming more within range than they have in the past. i wonder if people can get more conviction around the labor market data that is stabilizing enough to create a trajectory from tomorrow's report. tom: we change gears. bridgewater, hedge fund, associated with ray dalio, a california county is considering exiting bridgewater's efforts off of "weak returns." that is breaking. we will see if we see that more. maybe sonali basak has wisdom on that as well. one of my favorite people, ambassador pickering at the 12:00 hour. stay with us. thank you to our technical team for making it happen today. this is bloomberg. >> i have an exclusive u.s. open update for bloomberg tv and radio from tennis channel. three major champions where the headli

looking out six to nine months, stocks are higher than today. lisa: where are you trimming? russ: a little bit of our cyclical exposure. one place we have been trimming our financials. we were overweight financials earlier in the year and we have brought that down. part of that is the evolution or thinking about rates. what we do think we will see, some normalization and yields, particularly in real yields, we are not likely to see the melt up people are worried about earlier than the year -- earlier in the year. bond market volatility has been coming down. lisa: a lot of people are talking about this correction, this oppose a correction supposed to happen and everybody wants to buy. yet we have had trigger after trigger when it comes to disappointing data or signs delta is slowing economic recovery in meaningful way for more than just one quarter. what is the trigger at this point, given all that is well known? russ: i think there are couple things. one of which we haven't spoken about his washington. i do not think there is anything there that represent a long-term issue.

that is something we are keeping an eye on. lisa: your specialty is the housing market. where you made your name. we are seeing the housing market embody the inflationary push probably more than any other. 20% gains month after month after month. how does this factor into spending more broadly at a time when jay powell is just transitory and supply chain related? michelle: i think that housing is a perfect case study of this imbalance between demand and supply in the market, where demand climbs higher in the housing market in a constrained environment. builders are responding in inventory is ticking up. new home sales is now touching six months. that is good, we are making progress, but we are not at a point where prices are starting to cool. when you look at the number of days in the market a home is for sale there are more investors in the market. broadly it fuels and inflation sentiment. when you are considering how people perceive the inflationary environment. also a more nuanced view is it ultimately impacts the rental market which ultimately impacts rent. we are se

are talking about the 2022 election. we talk about the disagreements within the democratic party. lisaw divided is the republican party? a lot of members want to try to move forward. emily: the republican party is divided right now. it is hard to see those divisions. when you are in the minority party, you are against the majority. all of the republicans can coalesce around their dislike of president joe biden and the liberal socialists. it is easy right now for republicans to present a united front. but behind the scenes, and i think in solace -- i think gonzalez's retirement highlights this -- there is some concern over what the party will look like in a post--trump era. there is a question that republicans are really grappling with right now in terms of how much they try to cater to that part of the base that was energized by trump and how much they try to win back the more moderate republicans, traditional conservatives, independent voters who took one look at president trump and what he said and what he did and said no thank you and support the democrats. lisa: i want to take a st

lisa: you are just trying to trigger him. ter] jonathan: third year at the moment, 194, aberdeen looking for a flatter curve. lisa, lower yields on the long end? lisa: to me it raises the question of what really gets us there. does the jobs market indicate faster growth, curtailed growth? a slower growth environment? they are not the same with the different influences over the market. jonathan: you read the morgan stanley piece, i know you always do. i do as well. brought by fire or ice, the equity market, they say the following, it could be continued tightening policy leading to higher interest rates. or we get a payback in demand with weakened confidence over what the consensus expects and the former is cyclicals and the latter has defensive's. how do we come out of this midcycle transition? lisa: they are talking about a barbell on those sectors and you are right, honestly it seems like, tom, this will trigger you, the pendulum of uncertainty. can we do the toilet paper this morning? jonathan: which one is it? tom: i though

they are linked. lisa: the idea that it is less of a market specific story and a potential contagion from this particular default, then it is a real estate market that accounts for the world's second-biggest economy. i don't think we can ignore this. tom: do we know who owns this stuff, lisa? lisa: not only do we not know, but the pboc and the chinese officials do not know. can you help me out here? tom: do you think the bull strategists recalibrate off of what we saw yesterday? jonathan: growth is going to be back to 1% to do percent at the end of next year. that is jan's call. tom: reaffirming today the new nominal at blackrock, and you missed it yesterday because you were on assignment, but you missed my culturally aggressively reaffirming his lower, more tepid potential gdp call. that shifts any watching and listening. jonathan: tk feels like it is friday because it is friday for him. he is off tomorrow. bond yields higher by four basis points to 1.34%. your equity market firm or by 0.5%. your dollar w

are done. jonathan: it's a turnaround. crude down 0.6%, $74.86. lisa: today i am looking at what we will see with respect to global banking. central bank chiefs, as well as some of the data we are getting. 10:00 a.m., u.s. august pending home sales. the expectation is for a bit of a rebound after a sluggish past couple of months because of how prices have been. just to give you a sense of the pace of the increase, three straight months of gains. the idea of 20% gains on housing prices, which is that due to home wealth? what does that due to inflation? 10:30 am, we get the eia crude inventory report. how much do we see a drawn out until the supply in the united states, and what does that -- a drawdown in some of the supply in the united states, and what does that do to prices? on the ccb panel, what kind of consensus could become to? -- on this ecb panel, what kind of consensus could day come to -- could they come to? is she going to change her tone and say the mood is shifting, we need to adapt to policies that are not crisis era that really effect the

ritika: lisa: what does it mean to not have transactions in china for toe assets? jonathan: what a week, down 22 on the s&p 500. yields are breaking out on 10 with yields down a basis point. do we need to rethink the commodity trade given the shift in china. lisa: the idea of a slowing trend and what that means, maybe less demand over there but on the flipside, you have the figure infrastructure push. are we still talking about infrastructure in the united states? jonathan: we do have to talk about it. tom will talk about it every day next week. i don't disagree. if a strategist says they will buy anza things get bad and the treasury market, that tells you everything you need to know about this moment stuff lisa: and the fact that we are getting whipped around by political navigation. jonathan: patrick armstrong joins us now. is it higher or lower for this equity market? >> i think it will continue to be higher. i think qe will slow down but not stop over the next nine months but it will be tapered. i think we have a bumpier grind higher potentially. you saw $1.3 trillion with the fed yesterday and you have negative real