nomura cutting forecasts fr here joining us is louis alexander. louis, it's good to have you let's begin with next year what are the main reasons why you have done this already based on what we know and how big are the down side risks at this point? >> before the election we were talking about fiscal support well over $2 trillion. i think now realistically you're looking at a phase four deal of something like $500 billion. that's 1.5 trillion defereniffe. that matters a lot >> interesting >> but the near term effects of covid are getting worse. that's the other fact. >> yeah, absolutely. i didn't mean to jump in there i'd like to hear you explain a little bit kind inform contrast to what the markets are doing right now, which as bob said is looking through this winter and saying the vaccine is coming and we're going to kind of get back to normalcy. you know, tell me how you see the risks and kind of the if then, you know, how much of kind of the chicago style advisories do we need to see before that really starts to add up to something that's a big

that means michael mckee drops then louis alexander nomura, chief u.s. economist.s is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪ you can go your own way it's time you make the rules. so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get 5g included and save up to $400 dollars a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. you may already know that goodrx can help you save up to 80% on your prescriptions. unfortunately, many americans can't get to a doctor right now. the good news is that for many health issues, you can see a doctor online. it's easy. just go to goodrx.com, and with a few clicks, you'll be treated by a licensed medical professional, all from the comfort of your own home. visits are confidential and affordable. need a prescription? you

louis area broke another hospitalization record this week and forced officials to send patients to neighboring states with more space. dr. alexander on the front lines of this pandemic, in the battle in missouri. he's head of st. louis metropolitan pandemic task force. doctor, thank you for being here. >> sure. >> how bad is it? >> well, it's the worst that we've seen in the pandemic. right now, we have over 900 patients in our hospitals. i think what's more telling is that the nurses are getting worn out from the volume of patients that are coming in and how sick they are. >> this morning's front page of "the st. louis dispatch" says they're overwrought and exhausted. how concerned are you about the uptick from holiday gatherings that many people had a few days ago? >> we're very concerned. we know we won't see those patients for a couple of weeks. they have to become infected and get sick enough to come to thoptthopt hospitals. we're at maximum capacity. when we layer on more patients on to that, it's going to exceed our capacity. we've been transferring patients outside of the metropolitan area because we're just simply running