in the economic slowdown that could come, that could mean more days like this one mark zandi is from moody's analytics and you're kind of a consumer specialist. you heard us talking about the consumer what the stock market is saying. is that the consumer may be in trouble. do you agree with that >> no. not in trouble b brian, the fundamentals are good. >> now but the discounting mechanism for the future >> you're right. they may be having slower consumer spending growth and the consumer has been on a tear, and powering economic growth and we do need to see the economy's growth rate slow and that is the federal reserve's objective here and the key channel through which that happens is through consumer spending so we need to see growth slow or the markets will -- i don't think they're discounting the consumer pulling back because that would marine recession. i don't think that is what the markets are saying

we welcome back mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. how worried should americans be right now about a possible recession and how soon could that scenario be upon us? guest: well, recession risks are high. i would put the odds beginning in the next 12 months at one in three. and probably close to even odds over the next couple of years. so certainly cannot be dismissed. you know, obviously the problem is high inflation, painfully high inflation and the federal reserve is working very hard to raise interest rates quickly to slow growth and quell the inflation and in times past when we have been in this time of situation, recession often occurs. certainly cannot dismiss the possibility of a recession at this point. i will say on an optimistic note that the fundamentals of the economy feel very good to me and we can talk about that in greater detail if you would like. if we experience a recession i would expect it to be a more typical garden-variety modest recession, not that that will not be higher financial unemployment and a lot of pain

mark zandi will talk about the payroll and the labor numbers there. but i think you have a couple of things going on. i think it is the consumer at some point catches up to the fed and let's not forget what happened with rates today. an enormous day for the ten-year at one point up 18 basis points before pulling back a bit. but tough day on rates. >> and karen let's follow up on what tim is saying if you dig inside of the market, let the market tell the story, consumer discretionary was the hardest hit. and we know the economic data around the consumer has been strong the problem is it's backward looking. is the market today, and this year saying to you that second half of this year and early next year the consumer is going to take a hit and company earnings are going to take a hit? >> do you think the market is saying that. i don't know if the market is saying that louder than what will actually be the case. but the more the market said it, the worst that is for consumer sentiment, even if balance sheets are fine for the consumer to the extent that t

including mark zandy. >> when you gro shopping at the grocery store the cost of getting that food on shelf goes back to the cost of deeltz, think about the ups or fedex or amazon. >> you heard the expression, it runs down hilt. that's how we work. >> the fix here is hopefully to get more oil supplies. we're not going to see more oils until the ends of the year probably not until this time next year. >> this truck stop outside l.a., a gallon of diesel $6.49. these trucks only get six and a half miles a gallon. they pay more orin serious condition. foul play is not expected. >>> coming up next, america's big sisters, a nonprofit that's men torque the next generation of young women. >> if you can't watches the cbs evening news you can listen. subscribe wherever you get your pod casts, sponsored by ensure. for state controller, only yiu will save taxpayers money. wait, who, me? me? no, not you. yvonne yiu. yvonne yiu. not me. good choice. for 25 years, yiu worked as an executive at top financial firms. managed hundreds of audits. as mayor, she saved taxpayers over $55 million. finding wa

. >> and joining me now to discuss more is mark zandi, the chief economist for moodies analytics. thank you for joining me, mark. did you hear anything from president biden today that makes you think that he has a plan that actually will work in the short term to tackle inflation? >> well, i think he's got limited tools, dana. you know, he talked about the strategic petroleum reserve and the release, and that's been helpful. i don't think it's brought down oil or gas prices but limiting increases in oil and gas prices. talked about lowering tariffs on china, and that might have some benefit, at least on the margin. but he's very limited in what he can do. at the end of the day, this high inflation we're suffering from is the result of the pandemic and the impact on global supply chains. you can see that now going on in china and the shutdowns there, and the russian invasion of ukraine, which is scrambling oil and natural gas on the commodity market. i don't think we get to the other side of this high inflation until the pandemic fades and the worst of the fallout from the russia/uk

including mark zandy. >> when you go shopping at the grocery store the cost of getting that food on theoes back to the cost of diesel, think about the u.p.s. or fed-ex or amazon. >> you heard the expression, it rolls down hill? tat's how we work. >> the fix here is hopefully to get more oil supplies. we're not going to see more oil prices lower gasoline prices until the ends of the year probably not until this time next year. >> reporter: this truck stop outside l.a., a gallon of diesel costs $6.49. full loaded, these trucks only get six and a half miles a gallon. they are paying a dollar for every mile they drive and that's just for fuel. >> o'donnell: carter evans, thank you very much. tonight, the investigation of three americans in bahamas is moved to a lab n philadelphia. samples of the bodies and the villas they were staying in, could help officials determine what happened. two couples fell ill at a sandals resort. one woman remains in serious condition. foul play is not expected. coming up next, america's big sisters, a nonprofit that's mentoring the next generation of young wome

moody's mark zandi says it takes a market decline of 20% and lasting for the rest of the year to haveflation. brian. >> how much does -- do stock market gains factor into our thinking we know that home equity does, robert it is not like a lot of people are selling stocks it is a psychological thing. in your years and decades of doing this, how much does it make us feel better about the eco economy? >> positive wealth effect which is the flip side, is every dollar we gain, we spend an extra 2 to 3 cents there is a positive component on the way up and negative on the way down the reverse wealth effect is stronger impact because we don't like losing money as much as we like gaining money you know, on the way up and on the way down, there is a mood impact it does give us confidence to spend when we know we have that investment cushion right now, there is so much house money built up in that savings that it will take longer and it will take a more aggressive fed to get that reverse wealth effect to spending and inflation >> they were dropping hundreds from the helicopter. now they are hang

but moody's chief economist mark zandi says it could be a challenge.he price of housing is sgenktsedsgenkts expected to become an even bigger threat to inflation. and he says lawmakers should do more to increase the supply of rental homes. wall street failed to stop the bleeding on monday. nasdaq plunged more than 4%, the s&p dropped below 4,000 for the first time in more than a year. and the dow fell nearly 2%, this follows the fifth straight week of losses for all three major stock indices. and futures appear to have much more promising news, so it could be a better day. oil is not immune to the market turmoil either. u.s. crude prices endured their steepest one day decline since late march tumbling more than 6% to just over $103 a barrel. experts blame it not just on wall street but also china's covid lockdowns and europe's lack of progress in phasing out russian oil. >>> america may see gas prices hit a record high by the end of the month. national average is expected to hit $4.5 a gallon in the coming weeks. it wouldn't be too hard given the curre

host: we welcome back mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. worried should americans be right now about a possible recession and how soon could that scenario be upon us? guest: well, recession risks are high. i would put the odds beginning in the next 12 months at one in three. and probably close to even odds over the next couple of years. so certainly cannot be dismissed. you know, obviously the problem is high inflation, painfully high inflation and the federal reserve is working very hard to raise interest rates quickly to slow growth and quell the inflation and in times past when we have been in this time of situation, recession often occurs. certainly cannot dismiss the possibility of a recession at this point. i will say on an optimistic note that the fundamentals of the economy feel very good to me and we can talk about that in greater detail if you would like. if we experience a recession i would expect it to be a more typical garden-variety modest recession, not that that will not be higher financial unemployment and a lot of pain, it

zandi has tried -- mark zandi has tried to do so, and looking at the pandemic policies, has estimatedhat had we not acted, this goes back to cares as well, including the american rescue plan, we may well have faced a double-dip recession in 2021. we would be facing elevated unemployment today and we would not have had the economic growth that we had last year, which is what put us on a pass for more sustainable growth going forward. so the american rescue plan was an insurance policy. we did not know how long this pandemic was going to remain a challenge. we need to get shots into arms so we could retain our lives -- we needed to get shots into arms so we could regain our lives. it is a consequence of helping families and businesses get through the pandemic when we were facing supply chains which could not quite handle that sustained demand. lisa: how much does inflation have to come down before the end of the year for this growth that we are seeing to be sustained, for that not to really curtail some of the momentum we are seeing in households? cecilia: what is important is that we m

. >> reporter: mark zandi says doesn't mean the prices for everything will come down, he says we shoulded to high prices for things like food. what will come down he says is the price of gasoline and prices of new cars will start to go down as some of the supply chain issues get ironed out. brian todd, cnn, washington. >>> shortage of baby formula in the united states is getting worse every week as supplies in store shelves dwindle around the country. a data agency says the current supply is less than half of what it should be in at least eight states with the national average not far behind. the white house says that officials are working around the clock to fix the problem. formula maker abbott has a plant in michigan and could restart production in two weeks with formula back in stores within eight weeks pending fda approval. >>> still to come, the funeral procession for the al jazeera journalist shot, we'll have a live report next. opping you in your tracks... choose stelara® from the start... and move toward relief after the first dose... with injnjections every two months. stelara

here to help us understand the rest of it,, mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. k mark. let's get into this. we like to have good news if there is something to share. so let's try to focus on that. the pair, though, with the gdp news and consumer spending numbers, that is up. 2.7%. business spending is up over 9%. i am trying to look for a silver lining. does this exist? does this suggest the negative growth would be just a blip for the u.s. economy? >> yes, it is a blip alex. do not get to -- about that. it goes up and down and around. and it just so happens there are a number of one that factors that drove the numbers up. inventory, trade, defense spending. if you look at the things that really drive the economy's growth and you point them out, spending investment, they are still strong. bottom line, it is really about jobs. and we are creating lots of jobs. more than half 1 million each and every month for last year. we will get a read on that for the month of april last friday. so we'll see. but to me it seems likely economy still expanding strongly. >> unempl

. >> china not living up to that trade agreement anyway, mark zandi, paul, thanks gentlemen very much deadly battles breaking out across the entire frontline in eastern ukraine has russia is now accused of striking a chem it will plant. also this. look at those images from shanghai tonight. millions finally allowed to leave their homes after two months of brutal covid lockdowns. r what they need. woooooooooooooo... we are not getting you a helicopter. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty, liberty, liberty. liliberty.♪ my name is ami and i bought and financed my car through carvana. everything was all good but then things hit a slight snag. ok so they were trying to verify my employment status while i was at work, in a giant hole, in a mine. but then something amazing happened. hello? carvana worked with my shift manager and got everything sorted out so i didn't miss out on the car. super helpful. i was over the moon, even though i was underground. we'll drive you happy at carvana. for state controller, only yiu will save taxpayers money. wait, who, me? me? no, not you. yvonne yiu. yvo

want to bring in mark zandi. you are looking for 350 or some.uld be a very good number, but you think that the pace of job creation has to slow here. >> it does. the 500 k per month unemployment, but now unemployment is low, 3.6%, so job growth does not slow, unemployment will continue to fall and that will put more pressure on wages and prices. of course our number one problem right now is the very painfully high inflation. so the federal reserve is working through raising interest rates slowing growth, getting that job growth down to something that is more consistent with the more stable unemployment rate. so if we get 350 k, i think that we're on the path to that slowdown which is necessary. >> so a necessary slowdown, not necessarily to worry about in terms of the job market. the job market has been very, very good here. we have all these open job positions too. are you expecting to see more people come off the sidelines into the labor market getting that labor force participation rate up, something we've been hoping for the last couple year

>> the job market, i think, a lot of economists including mark zandi told me you want to see the job growth slow here. you don't want the job market to be so strong and wages rising so quickly that that actually adds to the inflation picture. so it would be -- it would be a welcome relief actually to see the job market slow here, just a little bit. it is still very robust. 11 million open jobs in this country right now. that's really something. the number of open jobs. the fed raising interest rates, jim, because the fed is trying to cool off a very strong american economy. so they can try to tamp down on inflation. a lot of different cross currents here. what is really important is that the fed gets this right, it continues to raise interest rates at a pace that will slow down inflation here, and not tip the american economy into a recession. so these are really -- i would say dangerous cross currents right now in the american economy. it has been a very strong couple of years, and now we have a lot to face including inflation, the war in ukraine, the shutdowns, covid shutdowns in c

mark zandi, the chief economist at moodys, he basically says, look at it this way, you're paying on top 2% normal inflation, you're paying another maybe $350 a month for the same goods this year compared with last year because of inflation. so this is why this is issue number one for american families and for this white house. >> that's real money. that really is. christine romans, thank you so much. >>> katie porter gave an emotional speech to her fellow democrats about skyrocketing grocery prices and how it affected her and her family. congresswoman said there is a lot of shame around having to live on a budget or having to put food back at a grocery store and i'm not ashamed. i'm doing the very best i can to make the choices financially for my family. she went on to say, it seemed like first time the personal toll of high consumer prices had sunk in for some lawmakers in the room. joining us now is congressional reporter at politico, sarah ferris, who reported on this meeting. this is really fascinating because it goes to the heart of how in touch these lawmakers are with what's goin

i talked to mark zandi, the moody's analyst, and he said he's got a reasonable degree of confidence that march was the peak. but he said, that assumes that nothing goes completely off the rails with either covid in china or the war in ukraine. and we know that those two issues have been just so unpredictable. and so if oil prices go up sharply because russia cuts off supply of energy or because europe decides to impose an embargo on russian energy, that's going to be bad news. we know that gas prices are at record highs, $4.40 a gallon, and yet china, their lockdowns has been a big issue as far as supply chains go. so those are concerns. the hope is that those issues get better, inflation starts to cool off, and the economy can continue growing. >> that is certainly the hope. matt egan, thank you very much for spelling it all out. >>> joining us now to discuss further, we have the economic adviser to george w. bush and personal finance columnist for the "washington post," michelle singletary, the author of "what to do with your money when crisis hits: a survival guide". douglas, i want t

we welcome back mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics.how worried should americans be right now about a possible recession and how soon could that scenario be upon us? guest: well, recession risks are high. iou

prices than stocks the problem there, at least for the fed is, that home prices are still rising mark zandi take a market decline of at least 20% which we're kind of already close to right now that lasts for the rest of the year to have the meaningful impact on inflation, so, carl, bottom line here is the fed will have to raise a lot more to get any benefits from a reverse wealth effect >> we're going so see how that plays now the their long-term views. good stuff robert frank big show coming up on "tech check" including more on the potential become vmware deal amid this slump in validations of course, that begins in five minutes. more from davos as well. ayitusst wh to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions fa

. >> coming up on washington journal, mark zandi at moody's analytics looks at the potential future ofhe u.s. economy and concerns about a possible