does mary daly feel that 50 basis rate hike a little more or 75? ry: maybe the first thing i will start with the scale, 50-70 five does not just depend on a data point, even the important one like the cpi. i would like to say we are data dependent, not data point dependent. how i think of whether it will be 60 or 75 as i look at a lot of things coming in, we have inflation numbers coming in, we have employment numbers coming in, we actually spent a lot of time, i know i do in my colleagues do, talking to businesses, households, community groups, people in stores, what are you feeling, and are you seeing signs of the economy slowing? all of those things, when i put them together, global risks in global growth, i have a baseline case going into september that is 50 basis points, that's where i've been since the last meeting, but i have an open mind about rather 75 is going to be necessary, and a lot of that will depend on the labor market, inflation, and whether we see those things slow enough to say while we've got the momentum we need to really figh

but we're going to dig into the specifics of that ahead with economists mary daly. let me talk to you about the politics of all of this. republicans had been hoping to ride the high inflation that we're at, and it is an historic high, and president biden's low approval ratings to a win in november. but the president and democrats just had a really good streak here. gas prices are down. you have this massive spending bill going through. these are a lot of big wins for democrats. the president just authorized that strike to take out the leader of al qaeda. isn't this going to get harder for republicans to get the edge that you were trying to manufacture here? >> well, you know, that sounds good, right, but that's white house talking points. let's think about this. 72% of americans believe we're headed on the wrong track. biden's numbers are in the tank. if you look at all the democrat -- umm, all the democrats running, basically they're a surrogate for joe biden and chuck schumer. they have to defend inflation, high gas prices, umm, open borders, defunding the police.

mary daly saying the fed is far from done in bringing down prices. for more let's bring in kathleen hays and garfield reynolds and stephen angled. -- stephen engle. kathleen, what is mary daly adding? kathleen: what she added even before this report came out. the fed has been signaling that we are going to keep hiking rates, even if the economy slows down. things are looking strong. payroll up 528,000 in july, more than double the forecast and sharply up from the month before. jobless rate is back to pre-pandemic levels, 3.5%. lower than the estimate of 3.6%. a 52 year low. average earnings accelerated month to month and kept steady at 5.2% but if you look at the monthly number you get what looks like 6% so that is why the former treasury secretary, one of the most respected economists thinks an economy that is getting too hot for the fed to stop hiking rates and let inflation keep rising. >> everything in this number says to me overheating not yet under control, not on path to being under control. so i was not gratified by these numbers but my conce

we will bring a more about her conversation with mary daly. as get more -- let's get more from garfield reynolds watching everything from the bond market. what is the pain trade for bonds now? is there that risk that you can continue end up higher or lower? >> well, the market is getting very worried that the bottom is in for yields in this particular section. if you look at the action in australia and new zealand, bond markets yesterday when trade markets are shut yesterday, yields have jumped a lot. we are heading for the worst week since mid-june for australian bonds. that gels with what has been going on in the treasury market. overnight, we had a lot of reasons you would think for treasuries to be encouraged between ppi and the rest of it. but there was a continuing fed warning. there was also a rebound in crude prices. ul that -- at all of that up, you have a flow that signaling -- that signal traders were going short. and that is likely to continue that softness for treasury market, given that we have had the best set of data you think

mary daly is not mincing her words. is making her point fairly clearly once again today, looking at the comments. mary daly, the fed is not completed with its fight against inflation. i'm not sure the grammar is right there, but markets, this is one to pay attention to. markets are ahead of themselves on the fed cutting rates. we are a data dependent fed she said, 3.4 is a reasonable place to get to by year end, the june sep remains reasonable guide. remember, they are not even ahead of her in terms of commentary. we asked the question earlier on, is the fed and market on the same page? kailey: this is the fed trying to get the market on the same page because the meeting last week was perceived as dovish. there was this narrative the fed would pivot. we asked in the days after that how hard was the fed going to push back? this is your answer with mary daly same markets are ahead of themselves as an markets are wrong on this. guy: and the whole idea of this fed pivot that we will get this v shaped move going from strongl

bloomberg caught up with san francisco fed president mary daly, and one notable investor who put a bitf a damper on the enthusiasm. >> they are significant and they are saying we are seeing some improvement. they are not a victory. we have been inflation report and employment report before the next meeting. if you who possessed a stay data-dependent. >> markets are completely ignoring fed speakers right now. >> they are fighting the fed? >> i think you almost need to bring the big guns out. we need powell to come out and speak. until he speaks the market rally can keep going. jon: let's get some more perspective on all of that. jennifer lee joining us now, senior economist at bmo capital markets. we have obviously gotten new views on where we are in the inflation fight. today we are getting signs on the health of the consumer and outlook for the consumer. how would you characterize where you see things going from here? jennifer: good afternoon. i would be very hesitant to put too much on one single number. whether it is the cpi or the ppi. import prices and the michigan index. the upti

francine: that was mary daly speaking to bloomberg on looking out for rate hikes in september. let's get more with louise dudley, portfolio manager from federated hermes. we also have bloomberg's ven ram. we focus now just on jobs? >> good morning. we focus on jobs, but we also need to get to the neutral rate that has traded online so many times. that means that we are going to get to a rate of 350 or above by the end of the year. tom: louise, do you see 350 by the year end, and what is in play for september? louise: as you just heard, there is a lot of data still to come between now and then. definitely a bit of stability hopefully by the end of the year and we will have a lot more certainty in terms of where we are going. francine: 3.5 means that we could seal a big move on bonds. what happens on the yield curve? ven: we have got -- looking to move more on the yields kelly. what is happening is adjustments , and we have seen the 10 year going up. that is because they are being fueled by real rates going up. that may be a story going forward because the markets are telling us,

kathleen: mary daly said she is open to 75. the inflation numbers, how hot they are is going to determine the size of the next rate hike. michelle bowman at the federal reserve board of governors south chief thinks he's barger rate hikes, which convened 75, are going to be on the table until they see inflation coming down on a monthly sustainable focused so much on the cpi report. the headline, the court is expected to rise bit. that number it's not going to be enough to get the stop hiking rates anytime soon. beyond that, this idea could be so hot the fed would call an emergency meeting, when i first heard this, i said i don't think so. i talked to one economist who said you can't rule it out. shery: no wonder we are seeing the reaction in the treasury space. we continue to see the yield curve flattening. the most inverted in decades. what asset classes are you watching for potential early moves from the fed or what might come as a bigger move in september as well? garfield: first of all, that if she did what pressures are wor

the fed's mary daly is hike next month. >> i have a baseline case going into september. 50 basis pointsthat's where i have been since the last meeting. i have an open mind about whether it is going to be necessary. >> the u.s. attorney general said he personally approved the search of donald trump's residence. the f.b.i. was looking for classified documents relating to nuke weapons. and the u.k. g.d.p. is set to drop in the next hour. expectations for a contraction of the economy. that is a battle for prime minister continues. 7:00 a.m. in frankfurt and paris. we kick off. bring our debate guns. take some of the hot air out of this market. inequity markets are a little bit higher this morning. there is a deep misunderstanding about the risks that are out there. the s&p came out with gains. the nasdaq up 20% from its lows. as far as equity market risks are concerned, nearly $3 trillion has been added on the nasdaq. the battle of the bulls is there. the equity markets are raging but of course euro stoxx 50. flat, the price of power, if you think you're going to work from home for the wint

mary daly and others all talking about how they think they have more work to do. the fight against inflation is not over. the market does not seem like they believe it. what do you make of this, the more the market has to rally the more the fed has to call and the more they come on say we will raise rates just to tell you guys? tom: i underplay that. i think the fed is data dependent and will be working off the economic data that they see and i do not play much attention to 75 feats or 50 feats there but i think what is germane is where the finishing point is within all this pontification, whether it is there in have percent or where and along suggests it is 4.75% or 5%. lisa: the data is a positive tone to markets, finishing up a positive weeks. -- week. can we retain the fate today as people take a look at whether or not there is this inflationary tilt across the board? you have s&p up for point -- .4%, the same to nasdaq. a touch slower, the two year yield lower, though yesterday the 10 year yield rose after the auction. it was the interesting auction because i

manus: san francisco fred -- fed chief mary daly on the fed bringing inflation down. rie dzanis is the head of emea at northern trust. good morning. dani: marie, we are just hearing from mary daly there, and the message is clear. they are going to fight inflation, and given the strong u.s. jobs numbers, give us the top down view of northern trust asset management. how have clients been reacting? marie: certainly well for the summer. with friday's jobs report, it has the likelihood of significant increase in the rates. and possibly even 75 basis points. what that could mean is a 50-50 chance of arrest session. -- of a recession. what is different is that with the strength of corporate balance sheets and looking at financial markets, that this would have an impact, but not as great. we will have our capital markets assumption out in a couple of weeks. we do see client reactions. if i look towards emea, it has certainly increased pressure around inflation, the energy crisis that is going on, and we see things like germany look towards conservatism and also emerging market

mary daly is speaking now with charlie evans, other presidents on the docket today. i'm kailey leinz with guy johnson in london, alix steel is off today. guy, happy taiwan tuesday. guy: it will be interesting to see whether it is a happy day. we will find out later on. pushback to 45, we will watch what happens and what reaction we get from the chinese later on. you were talking about fed speak -- let's focus on that, mary daly talking a few moments ago out of san francisco, raising the idea that feds -- the fed is looking at the data and rate hikes thus far. whether that could be possible, but she certainly says as well that the job is far from done. the data comes in softer than anticipated. 10,698,000 is where we stand, the market was looking for around 11 million. the previous number revised to touch higher, so we are seeing a slowdown in the job openings, but they remain at historical highs. one needs to be aware of that as well. let's look at what is going on under the hood, what the jobs market is telling us. this of course ahead of the payroll numbers we are

just three days ahead of the july jobs report, mary daly tell me there's still a long way to go in the fight against inflation. what she thinking needs to happen with in -- we're going to talk to the ceo of misfits market >>> and chips, coffee and credit, the action, story and trade on amd, starbucks and paypal as they report this afternoon. first, to dom chu on today's market action. >> it looked like it would be a sell-off today, but it's not >> everything happening right now is leading to at least a bit of moderation. the s&p 500, again, session highs, up 21 points. we were down as low as 39, so 17 points, 4 is 36 the real outperformer up about interest rates. if you look at the spread, the difference in rates between three-month treasury bills and ten-year treasury notes, that's one of the preferred gauges of the yield curve that some dreers and investors look at as a possibility indicator. at one point today, it actually inverted ever so slightly, only to go higher again we're now up by just about nearly 20 basis points there, so it's been pretty much a straight line higher since

mary daly made it very clear the fed is not looking in the rate cut direction, it's about rates going higher. >> we are far from done. that is the promise to the american people. we are committed to bringing inflation down and will continue to work until the job is done. >> it will be appropriate to raise rates in september by half a percent? >> absolutely. we need to be data-dependent. kathleen: it's clear that she has not made up her mind yet. she has been leaning towards 50, but leaving the door open to 75. michelle bowman from the board of governors saying on friday that as far as she is concerned, more large rate hikes, 75 basis points on the table until inflation declines. we have the two months between the july 27 meeting, twice as long as we usually have, two jobs reports, two inflation reports. we have one red hot jobs report, all the more focused on this wednesday jobs report we are supposed to see some relief, 9.1% year-over-year to 8.7%, the court is supposed to go up a bit to 6.1% from 5.9%. no big progress there. they are toting this up, but so far, it would seem 75 basi

we continue our conversation now with the head of the san francisco federal reserve bank, mary daly. in that jobs number on friday, we also saw that wages rose, but they're not rising as quickly as inflation is. how concerned are you that that shows inflation is really becoming embedded in the economy in a way that is really going to force your colleagues at the fed to continue to have to hike rates? >> you know, you don't see inflation as embedded in the economy. the kind of things we would worry about just not being able to correct easily. what i see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. about 50%, by my own staff's estimates, of the inflation we see is related demand, the other 50% is supply. the fed is well-positioned to bring demand down. we already see the cooling forming in the housing market, in investments. so i do see signs that the economy's cooling. it just is going to take some time for the interest rate adjustments we've made to work their way through. and we are far from done yet. that's the promise to the american people. we are far from done. we're committed to b

mary daly thinks rates will remain high for up to a year.cy pelosi will meet her counter part insole after wrapping up her controversial taiwan visit. it is on the agenda include into pacific security and climate dependence. -- climate change. opec plus will raise production in september and one of the smallest hikes in history. it is a blow for president joe biden after visiting saudi arabia in july, trying to help cool fuel prices in the united states. their production capacity is limited. india plans to work with cleaner fuels. the roads third bennett -- their biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is pushing to hit net zero by 2030. the government is seeking a mandate for the use of some fossil fuels. a group of professional golfers including phil mickelson are suing the pga tour, calling it and -- an illegal monopoly. the players say the suspensions are part of the pga's plan to course rebel tours. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> we are in the thi

tom: mary daly. why the anticipated in a heated battle into the weekend. just heard from steve roach. good to hear from him as well. right now, got a friday feel to it. lisa, in anticipation of retail sales next week. i don't even know what day it is. lisa: today is friday. i want to point this out that citi put out a report saying their credit card transaction data -- it is friday -- shows the decline in spending in certain retail areas. it is across the board. in real terms even more. how does that factor into this disinflationary environment at a time when people are counting on soft landing? tom: that reported week as well. we will digress. 20 schiller --wendy schiller, a writer of textbooks on civics as well. we alluded to this before, we ndy. i want to talk about two candidates will be 78 at 82 in 2024. that means if my math is right they will be 82 and 86 on the way out the door in 2028. how did we get the fossils friday for president? wendy: i think general trends in aging are good. people are aging better across the country. that's a good thing. i

come down but remember, scott, the number now is 9, the number we've got to get to is 2 i think mary daly is reflecting that and i don't think charlie would disagree either. >> steve, appreciate it. thank you for those breaking headlines. stephanie, the incremental moves we've got since the evans headlines have crossed are incrementally more positive, if you want to say it that way. stocks coming off the levels they were at when we started the show, yields touching a tick lower on that. it goes to how we're trying to game what we're supposed to do, whether the risk/reward scenario is in fact better for investors as marco said yesterday, it's the central question. >> i think we're going to remain very choppily in a trading range. i think there are positives and i think there are negatives. i don't think you get too euphoric and i don't think you get too negative on the positive side, inflation is starting to come down if you look at energy prices, food prices the prices paid yesterday dropping 18 points, the lowest level since august of 2020 that's very encouraging but we're still too high

jon. >> yeah, tyler, mary daly is president and ceo of the san francisco fed. she also dropped out of high school to work at age 15 after her parents got sick daly went on to earn her ged, bachelor's, masters and doctorate in economics she learned to thrive, until one day one of her superiors put up a barrier that stunned her. >> and then someone told me that i wasn't going to be able to go in front of a specific group because i was gay. and it might be an embarrassment or it might not sit well because maybe the people we were going to speak to didn't really love gay people and it was the first time in my life where -- i mean, i've been odd for a long time, right i'm lower income, i'm from the wrong side of the tracks i'm gay, i dropped out of high school i got a lot of -- i'm short. you know, i've got a lot of things that don't make me fit. that was the first time that someone had directly told me that because of something i was i was going to be constrained, and it stopped me in my tracks i called a friend of mine and i said i don't know what's happening to me

t-mobile for business. >>> welcome back about an hour ago, i spoke with san francisco fed president mary daly ft. knox one on one interview. stocks popped last week after the fed raised interest rates 75 basis points and daly says the federal reserve is completely united in bringing down inflation. the numbers are far too high the work is nowhere near almost done i asked her, because some in the market seem to feel that the commentary after this meant that the fed was almost done. here's her reaction. >> nowhere near almost done. we have made a good start. and i feel really pleased with where we've gotten to by this point. but let's just reminder, the last numbers on inflation, 9.1%, those are far too high but most importantly, just go to any grocery store. you know, i went to do a lot of chopping for different things over the weekend and people are still struggling with the high prices they're paying and the rising prices you know, the number of people who can't afford this week, what they paid for with ease six months ago just means our work is far from done we are still resolute and comple

to consider what we were hearing from mary daly, the san francisco fed president first quite some time. she had actually been saying listen to us. we are going to continue to ask, and i don't think most people would argue that she is one of the most hawkish individuals at the fed, so how can they be surprised when powell comes out today and says i'm going to continue to do and continue to say what i've been saying all along. this is not alan greenspan fed speak where it is gobbledygook and we can try to figure it out. they are laying out what they're going to do with respect to the tenure rate, which is what i think carter was referring to. one of the natural things we would expect is if the fed does its job and manages to get inflation under control, and if it does have the necessary side effect, slowing effect on the economy, than actually what the 10 year rate debt, which is essentially nothing, is exactly what you would expect.>> carter made that point as well, for the tenure. if i think it through and push aside the numbers that i saw on the screen with the way that stocks were se

leaving the equity traders behind. 75 basis points is live according to the rhetoric we've heard from mary daly50 basis points on the table, 75 is likely. they want to frontload this rate hikes. keep an eye on that. yields are rising, barely thousand barrels added, a slap to the biden administration. wheat is up by 1% in chicago. ubs, starting at 115. because of an energy crisis and political procrastination. adidas, i told you we would wait for the results when they come through. they are taking a hit from the supply chain. greater china sales dropped by 35%. the core of lockdown is hitting adidas. sales down 35% in china. haven't seen all the slowdown or cancellations as yet. in terms of sales set they rose by 4% in north america, latin america up 37%. you are seeing second-quarter revenue that meets the estimates . it is up 10% on the air. north america striding weight, up 37%. latin america, 50%. these are revenues numbers. the margin is slipping, 50.3. these are the important things to note, gross margins still around 49%. the pain is in china. they did not experience a meaningful slowdown

now mary daly on top of kashkari and evans after the fed released saying, we will emphasize rate hikes and are not done yet. they said that before the data and are saying that after the data. this is one month and does not change the trajectory. you will hear from like-minded economists, one month does not make a trend. and all too clear from someone who was the biggest doves and has now become the biggest hawk, as my colleague outlined, kashkari is coming for the fed funds rate to be 3.9% by year end, 4.4% by 2023. or hikes into next -- more hikes into next year as well. dani: disney rallied after hours reporting third quarter sales that beat estimates. they have overtaken netflix in terms of total subscribers but is taking action to support the cost of content. joining us is laura wright with the highlights, and i assume now disney songs to sing for us. manus will do that later. >> as manus mentioned, we are entering a whole new world. total subscribers across disney streaming platforms, that includes disney plus, hulu and espn reached 221 million for the quarter. this is because of

we heard that from mary daly yesterday. it unlocked a big move on the front end of the curve. right now we are super focused on the opec speak. started about 15 minutes ago, according to a delegate. they are going to boost output by 100,000 barrels a day. that will come down like a lead balloon in washington. tom: brent crude breaching out, 101.70. jonathan: we have gone from losses to gains. tom: lisa, with a bond volatility, we are talking about what have we seen in ig and high-yield? lisa: one thing that is fascinating, companies have enjoyed the rally, have been selling bonds at the fastest pace that anyone would have expected. investment great have already sold all of the bonds for the entire month of august in two days. is that how people feel based on this put back from fed officials? we have more work to do. we are nowhere close to where we need to be to fight inflation. tom: i want to get back to the general gloom that is out there. caution into a jobs report. do we presume job report will be negative? jonathan: we are looking for a number of 250k. the question is wil

coming up, san francisco fed president mary daly joining us live in the next hour. for daybreak australia. daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get unlimited data with 5g included for just $30 a line per month when you get 4 lines. switch to xfinity mobile today. shery:

mary daly told us what she told us a week ago speaking as well. 50 or 75. her baseline is 50 but she is open to 75. let's talk about the economic numbers that sherry just mentioned. jobless claims 250,000 in the latest week. they have been stuck at a healthy level supporting the fed's view that the labor market is still strong. home sales are down 5.9% existing home sales hit the lowest since 2020. this is where the fed is keeping a close eye because organs rates of shot up. people have pulled out of contract closing. this was already hitting the economy and it may continue to hit. >> you can see that push pull in the markets. we saw the jp morgan representative defending the buying the dip call saying he sees more about buffer for these orchids. what about the dynamics that are at play? >> bonds are a choice for investors now attract relative to equities. because the outlook has become troubled enough that you don't know if you're looking at it in a years time, is the stock market went to be higher? you don't know. everyone expects inflation to be lower bu

we know this, because mary daly explained her views on inflation inadvertently. apparently she didn't know she was being recorded. she said inflation doesn't matter to her because she's rich and we're quoting. "i don't find myself in a space where i have to make tradeoffs because i have enough. and many americans have enough." ooh, you've got enough. you've got enough. stop your whining. time to fix the climate. we're in charge of the weather now. so these are the issues that the leaders of the democratic party and the party's donors, many in san francisco and new york, care about. they don't care about inflation, because they're rich and it doesn't affect them. in other words, they don't care about you at all. by the way, this isn't just true of longstanding establishment figures in the democratic party, it's everywhere. it's endemic, in the fabric of the party itself. even people who want to join the club repeat the same line. at a debate last night, maloney and nadler, at 76 and 75, were joined by a 35-year-old lawyer, who runs a motel management company. he w

on friday with mary daly. david: yes, because that one might actually change how this depth chart looks. the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at the next fed meeting is half, 50-50. much lower than a three-inflation -- a pre- inflation print. let's bring in garfield reynolds, our chief rates correspondent and mliv contributor. we do see them pulling back from those bets of a big headache, but the big question is, did that inflation report change anything? garfield well, it moved the needle a little bit, especially quite a bit in the immediate aftermath, just until we got the fed speakers charles evans and neel kashkari shoving back against the idea that this made a material change to the outlook , what they are thinking that they need to do. it is ironic that the market got very excited at the idea that headline cpi came down more than expected, that is what people have been looking for. but then again, on the core measures, which is what the fed looks at more, those have already peaked. both core and cpi, t

: it would be a dovish reaction, and that is aligned with the comments we saw from fed member -- mary daly, who says that the funds rate is at a neutral range, so from here on it will be more difficult in those rate hikes will be data-dependent. i would expect that we are going to see some of that hawkish repricing come out of that. but i don't think that is going to be the case. we're still leaning towards that 75 basis point by september. the key will be whether he says we need to continue to frontload hikes, which would suggest that 75 basis points are baked in. a clear disappointment for the market is if they do not give any kind of signal. they continue to suggest this is a meeting by meeting basis, so the cpi print is still ahead and the payrolls i had, so the markets might also be left as appointed -- disappointed. tom: kristine, in terms of financial conditions, they are loosening back to pre-the first hikes from the fed. you have morgan stanley saying that the markets are not drink in quantitative tightening for the months ahead. -- factoring quantitative tightening for the months

mary daly from it san francisco fed. a jury ruling conspiracy theorist alex jones, must pay more than $45 million in punitive damages. the parent of 6-year-old boy killed in the 2012 suspect 2012 sandy hookmassacre. white house is sadden by two people two people this were strike by lightning. it follows thursday night straight in lafayette park. secret service and park police officers saw the incident happen. rendered first aid. up next, we'll take you to the conservative political action conference where big-time republicans are streamlining the party's message ahead of the election. two governors from different sides launch attack campaigns in each other's face. first, here's what some of the fox affiliates are covering tonight. in louisville, where thunderstorms are bringing renewed threats of flooding to parts of kentucky which has been ravaged by hot water. the entire state is under flood watch through sunday. major storms so far 37 have died. krqe in albuquerque, this is where at least 15 people are recovering from

mary daly spoke out about how we still have a lot to do to stop inflation. it makes you feel like we're going backwards and inflation is heating up. you would think we are living in argentina. this consensus is awful and most importantly it is dead wrong. i say this as someone who is worried about raging inflation. months and months back in november i thought things were so out-of-control i warned you away from stocks that go down when the fed tightens. i talked about tightens that were needed at that moment. i can't be too worried about inflation here and now and one of the main reasons is because the commodities are almost going down. they are well off their highs and we have to own that. we can't just say, of course, that is not where the inflation is. it is in the service sector. that is nonsense. service sector inflation is less important. you don't need to travel or go out to dinner or fly. i spoke to eric cassio and he is the ceo of adco, large farm equipment operator. he said the actual prices are almost all grains are not rallying, they are actually

mester's comments coming on the've mary daly, take a listen. >> are you almost done >> nowhere near asone. we've gotten off to a good start. let's remember the last numbers on inflation, 9.1%, those are far too high most importantly, go any grocery store. i went to do shopping for a lot of different things over the weekend, and people are still struggling with the high prices they're paying and the rises prices you know, the number of people who can't afford this week what they paid for with ease six months ago just means our work is far from done. >> okay. so how high will rates need to go according to st. louis fed president james bullard, a voting member t feds fund rate will likely hit between 3.75% and 4% by the end of the year. it currently, by the way, sits between 2.25% and 2.5% that's the current range let's tie all this together. we have malcolm ethridge with us you heard what we played, the quotes still out there is it still a worry, top of mind for wall street. >> good morning, dom i think the last month of earnings and earnings season being less disappointing than expected

we will hear from patrick harper, mary daly, all of them coming out to talk about this, does it make sense to see the point to yield curve going down to the most inverted to the year 2000? does it make sense the market was pushing back against the idea of rate hikes to the extent they were a couple of months ago? given that we are expecting a .8% next week on the cpi? inflation may be coming down, but to what and how quickly? jonathan: and it will remain punchy, according to estimates. thank you. the data, the meetings, kristin bailey -- kristen joins us now. we have shifted to are fully invested portfolio since the first quarter of 2020. what does that mean? kristen: what we have said the past months is really looking at where we can go from here, and there are three different scenarios we can see. robust, resilient, or a recessionary scenario. i don't think anyone is really calling for robust. right now we have a 50-50 chance in terms of tipping over into a true recession, not technical, or seen that resilient slowing growth environment. we want to prepare for folios for both, so t

this wishful thinking, you have the likes of mary daly, jim bullard, really pouring cold water on it, hence the massive volatility we are seeing across the bond markets. rishaad: stephen engle in hong kong with you guys. what's the mood there like, what has the reaction been like? betty: so, the planned drills by china is by far the most serious military action for the past two decades. this warning, taiwan's defense military put out a statement condemning china's action, saying that these drills will put a serious threat to taiwan sports and urban areas. an taiwan's ruling party right now also stated that no matter how hard china wants to put military actions on taiwan, taiwan will be determined to push for its democracy and sovereignty among the international society. so i think the sentiment here is definitely rising a little bit. i think this whole story was not be top story for taiwan over the weekend but it has raised more attention and is on the top of the radar right now for people in taiwan. yvonne: in terms of the chinese response, what is your take? stephen: kind of expecte

ira: if you mean the fed will go the mary daly route, like 25% and then stay there, that is possible -- tom: is today's phrase the stay their jobs report? ira: it certainly heading there. we have another report and that has to be the consensus, no doubt. when i look at this report, the aggregate labor income figure, basically everything taken, it is still growing at 9% year on year. 9.3% a month ago. 9% year on year aggregate labor growth means everyone is going to have enough income in terms of, to be able to continue to buy even with higher prices. will there be substitution effects because of what is going up? yes that will happen. but with the labor market this strong, that means you can have more persistent inflation for large portions of the economy, and that really has to worry policymakers. that is why they may have to keep interest rates higher than what the market is currently pricing. frankly, the market has 2023 wrong. i think there are opportunities there for people to trade around that. lisa: if the market has 2023 wrong, where is it most wrong? just on the front end in

san francisco fed president mary daly said the cooler inflation readings this week for july are welcomedgrowing price growth. she spoke to kathleen hays a little earlier. >> they are significant and they are saying we are seeing some improvement. they are not victories. we have the inflation report and on deployment report coming up before the next meeting. it really behooves us to stay data dependent and not call it. i have a baseline case going into september that is 50 basis points. that is where i have been since the last meeting. i have an open mind about whether 70 five is going to be necessary. -- 75 is going to be necessary. austan goolsbee from the booth school of is this, professor of economics. former chair of council of economic advisors with his take. do you think inflation has peaked? joe: --austan: i think it has peaked holding other things constant. that we don't get another variant. the work in ukraine does not deteriorate over don't have supply shocks that happen. the chinese don't shut down again for the zero covid policy. those are a lot of assumptions. we have over t

the san francisco fed president mary daly said raising 75 would be reasonable, but that is dependent on inflation data between now and then the comments coming from the conference in jackson hole, wyoming. let's talk about the stock picks and opportunity friday on "worldwide exchange. joining us now is degas wright of decatur capital degas, good morning. how closely are you watching or listening to the fed it seems every day we get a new comment. it seems exhausting at times to be frank >> so, brian, what we're doing is that we're listening to the fed, but we have to make strategy decisions either way it happens. a soft landing or hard landing we have to prepare our clients for a really performance to address either outcome >> yeah. if they signal they will get more aggressive on raising rates, does that mean we should back off our stock ownership because of concerns of recession? or to be honest, does a quarter basis point matter to you and your clients that much >> you know, at this point, we always say that it is really more time in the market versus timing the market. we will be,

mary daly said the fed is not winding down rate hikes. or in any way, mr.er at the chicago fed said he might be okay, you get the idea we're not done we're going to keep going, trying to talk this down that moved the markets down eight bit. the bond yields have moved up. for example, so some of the big downside moves are p limit te, lennar, all notely w notably weaker even good earnings stories are hard to push forward simon property group had amazing comments about the occupancy levels up in their malls, tenant termination levels were at record lows. not moving up, but at record lows they raised their different, buying back more stock, yet the stocks had a nice rally the last couple weeks this was generally a fantastic earnings report. finally, the good news is that the big megacap tech stocks holding up pretty well micron nvidia and alphabet all positive today. >>> the yields are moving higher rick santelli, what is playing here more on the market or the trip by pelosi? >> it's that and technicals. he a three-fer day the second of the day's trade took tha

mary daly, the fed president, just a couple of weeks ago, this idea that there is a hump that it's going to go up and start coming down, it just seems totally unrealistic and that is one very important point and this question about how much higher they may go, not only did she agree in the interview with us that it could go above 4%, 5%, when i asked her about what john taylor told us a couple of days ago, author of the taylor rule on bloomberg television, he said they should be aiming for 5% and maybe even higher. she said we could go higher. is jay powell going to signal that? how is he going to signal it? what context will he put that in? he will tell us about the update. >> look at how the latest jobs report was. his inflation starting to break? the year-over-year number has started to cool off a little bit and so has the ppi. how long will they keep it up? how long will they keep it there? i hope you can signal to us that it takes a recession to do this, if that is what happens in the fall out, that is what we will have to do. we will see. manus: as your interview with -- kathleen,

kathleen is in san francisco where we will be hearing from the san francisco fed president mary daly.hat exclusive interview is tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. friday in hong kong and 7:30 p.m. in new york. vincent: -- vonnie: china promised to continue regulatory roles after declaring an end to military drills around the island. the pla successfully completed all tasks in last week's exercises. he left open the possibility of frequent military exercises across the taiwan strait median line. taiwan staged the drills in response to nancy's visit to taipei. u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo says hello sees visit competition -- anti-proceeds visit comforted trade talks with china. gina raimondo says chinese officials were already hesitant to engage in talks and the fallout from nancy pelosi's trip has not helped. >> it has made it a little more challenging at this moment. it is harder. but, i am hopeful that we will get beyond that and back to a place where we can have more concessions. vonnie: in germany the rhine river is set to become virtually un-passable at a keyway point. the watermark w

mary daly from the san francisco fed said she thinks 50 basis points for september is reasonable, because there are hopeful signs on inflation losing some of its steam. this contrasts with charlie evans from the chicago fed, who said 60 points or 65. but mary said that if inflation continues to roar ahead, they will have to do another 100 basis points. rishaad: andrew bailey, governor of the bank of england, essentially said they will be revving up their rate hike. we have unemployment at 3.8%. but the cpi read is nearly 9.5% there, kathleen. kathleen: red-hot. over the u.s. rate at this point. and you mentioned 50 basis points if they actually get through the highest since 1995. but business inflation expectations. some of the longer term consumer-based inflation expectations in the u.s. are starting to come down. not this one, it continues to rise. as you said, 9.4% in june. the forecast from the boe had been for 10% this year. they are expected to raise the forecast for 2022 12%. andrew bailey has to push ahead for the 50-basis-point rate hike because that is what everyone is expecting

that interview with mary daly. pointed out there is another cpi read, another job support before we even get to the september meeting. a data-dependent fed will wait for more before making the call. this week will not do it. tom: you will see this role that on monday. the bramo back to school now cast. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, i am ritika gupta. among the items fbi agents searched for at donald trump's florida home were classified documents related to nuclear weapons. according to the washington post, people familiar did not say if the documents were found. the former president called for the release of the search warrant. the justice department has already asked the court for the papers to be unsealed. president biden once four more years. he is set to launch his reelection campaign in the months after november's congressional elections. those close to bloomberg say he's encouraged by recent legislative economic and foreign policy successes. polls show most democrats would rathe

. >> san francisco fed president mary daly told reuters that if inflation keep soaring, a 75 point basis hike in september may be appropriate. 50 would be reasonable. she said this week that rate cuts in 2023 are not her modal outlook. joining us now, chief market strategist tony flyer. did the market not believe these fed officials that are coming out and trying to walk back? >> there is a little momentum that we have and people are remote more focused on that and maybe they became a little overly defensive around the low. now we are up over 14% and they are ignoring issues out there. it is interesting that jim bullard said we are not restrictive. we are at 225. he wants to go to 3.75 to 4%. i can't see how that is a great thing. >> there is that and the fact that we are starting to get a mismatch between when the market is pressing the fed and where the fed is saying. is at a risky thing for he market? >> you will in the middle of the initial -- the initial fear is that what is the fed going to do and how they impact the economy? that was the first move lower. now we are in okay it's n

. >> san francisco fed president mary daly out saying i don't think we should ratchet up rates reallyd and we'll bring them down quickly to lower rates just a few months from now and richmond's thomas barkin saying he's committed to doing what it takes to bring inflation down and he expects better growth in the second half than 2022 and the economy's currently in recession. he and other fed officials insisting it's hard to call a recession right now with strong job growth >> that is the thing and everyone comes back on that call >> the jobs report out friday and the labor market has remained strong to your point and even as signs show the economy is slowing what do you expect on friday >> courtney, it'sa big anomaly the consensus is high frequency data and we should continue with above-trend job growth and that's more than 100,000 and we're looking for 250,000 and we did research on this, courtney and what we found is during times when the economy is as negative quarters, job growth almost always falls. it falls by half a percentage point normally this time around with the economy neg

jonathan: it is a raise and hold strategy, and the words of mary daly.have any idea for how long? is it too premature to have that conversation? jan: i think it could be a couple of years. jonathan: really? jan: if you get to the mid-3% or higher you stay there. while inflation will look better a year from now i think it will still be significantly above the target, and ultimately they do want to get down to pretty close to 2%. jonathan: that is totally out of consensus. how much pushback from clients do you get when you bring that up? jan: i don't know if it is as out of consensus in terms of what forecasters are saying. i think there are quite a lot of forecasters and fed officials -- you just mentioned mary daly -- fed officials who are saying this is a reasonable baseline. tom: the bottom line here is simple. this is the scene with jackson hole. jonathan: this is the difficulty. 3.5%, if you are going to hold rates at that level a couple of years, when does this landing fit into that profile? jan: i think that is a soft landing, kind of. if it was no

>> yeah, the fed speak has been trying to deliver this message for a couple weeks now talked to mary daly a couple weeks ago, and so many were coming out and saying don't expect us to cut rates next year, we're going to hike them and leave them high for a while. now it sounds like the market maybe is starting to believe it this time. but we're coming off a level where things have gotten pretty hidy but even apple is off 1.5% this morning. google is off 4%, better known as alphabet these days amazon, off 2. so even the larger technology stocks that had been performing pretty well are taking it on the chin this morning, you mentioned growth stocks. those are off as well. a firm, we're going to talk to max levchin in a bit that's off 19.5% coinbase off 7 peloton, down 7 as well. marvel off 6.5%. even though fundamentally it's doing well, still some supply chain issues that we see reflected in what's happening in the chips. >> maybe i would just add the arc innovation etf to that list, so indicative of that growth trade that's down almost 4%. of course, we've been talking about it all morning

trying for a long time, it seemed, to top the markets down and it wasn't working at all remember, mary daly even talked to me about it and you know at that point, right, like when that -- just talking to the economics reporters, talking to the tech anchors as well, trying to get a message out there but seriously we're going to get some more data this week that i think will be interesting for some growth oriented names, crowd strike, we saw how palo alto networks did, here's another big grower in security, and also page duty, software names in that devops space they could still be seeing healthy demand even though the overall picture isn't great. you need that good news. >> best buy, lulu. pisani was mentioning the conferences kicking off after labor day. wait until conference season, then you're going to get a lot of the -- some argue, worrisome color you didn't get after earnings. >> this is the confessional quarter, you saw that from some, crm, salesforce, saying contracts are being pulled out a little bit that conference season we're going to be together again at a few of them. it will b