chief economist and head of the mastercard economic us institute. welcome. >> thank you >> how much runway do you think we have for this to really reverse, and do you expect it to reverse sharply? >> so it's fascinating we saw a 27-year trend of moving toward more services just get totally interrupted. and then just toward the middle of last year, we saw the consumer really start to recalibrate its spending and think about that buying too much stuff as you mentioned, and looking more toward the services. now we've seen that rebound or that momentum of services really climb through the end of last year and then omicron happened and kind of provided a bit of a setback. but what we're seeing in the latest data is the setback looks to be fairly temporary and things look back on track toward that services or that experience economy that we were in just a few years ago. >> we have seen the reopening stocks this week gaining momentum with the restaurant names. that's kind of helping it move to the up side if we talk about what ha that holds for the next co

tom: steve state of with master -- steve sadove with mastercard.ory, moving the swiss franc to a stronger swiss franc, vladimir putin and his neighbor in belarus. the one headline, i will let you decide what you like. lukashenko will decide with putin on my presidency. that is a stunning headline. lisa: also lukashenko discussing economic sanctions with vladimir putin, vladimir putin saying he did not pay attention to invasion reports. there is a question how they will message the imminent seat of the invasion with the u.s. pushing that narrative and russia pushing against it. the market reaction is interesting. we saw some concerns about individual citizens, nonmilitary personnel being moved out of some of the rebel territories in ukraine. interfax reports. the interesting thing to me as we saw an immediate response and equities, rolling over, how much people are ready to respond if there is an altercation this something that indicates how much people are not pricing that in. tom: i will go to the ruble which pulled back from the good news of last

mastercard, visa, they're killing it.hey were supposed to be old dinosaurs and it would be firm, paypal, square and klarna, all these other names, is the dream over? >> well buy now pay later is it is a bit of a mixed bag. there are some real nice tailwinds to at that business, particularly the firm that had great partnerships with amazon, shopify, a very compelling user experience, strong followship by users but what they're facing going forward, a lot more competition that will put pressure on their pricing. regulatory, the cfpb is starting to look at underlying credit dynamics in these businesses as well as probably a weakening consumer credit environment coming out of the pandemic. so it is not as easy of a road they have had in the past. so you have to be a little cautious. it is an interesting long-term play but you have to be a little cautious there yeah. i mean our favorites as you know are visa and mastercard, as boring as they are. while everyone else is coming to a crash landing coming off the pandemic they're

i would look at it as a tech company and a destructor for the networks for visa and mastercard i think talking venmo gaining share at checkout and that's a very important thing that people are not given credit for and it's gaining checkout and over time it should become ubiquitous. people are not given any credit for that and i value them as a tech company and not as a legacy company. >> dan, i hate to get too much into the macro, but we are keeping an eye out on the balance sheet and being disrupted by inflation and lack of stimulus and the rest i know i didn't hear it from a lot of other financials this quarter so far, but how strong of a line are you drawing between that comment on the call and the broader macro environment? >> it's a fascinating comment because i think what you're seeing now and this is the first time you basically get not like a canary in the coal mine, but you are getting an early-bird view and this ecosystem didn't exist. this is not paypal, if there was an issue with the low-income consumer, this is not if there is one this is not a paypal issue and this is a b

the juggernaut i remember when visa and mastercard were new on the block but now they're powerhouseseven though pay it is pal is down the forward multiple is not still super attractive and more expensive. >> you think it could have downside there's retail interest in the stock. most active on fidelity. what would you say to them coming in on a stock from 310 to 130 getting a deal >> be careful. at 310 it was expensive. i'd ask them to read the transcript of the earnings call. the management didn't have the ducks in a row there's miscommunications with the street over the last quarter. scramble to correct those. i think what we are seeing is a company that doesn't quite have its act together yet and not sure where the bottom is and i would wait until things settle out. >> you look at the lights of kohl's bed bath & beyond. gap. up over three weeks. threadup, rent the runway down. >> we are seeing multiple compression. the sexy ones have good business models and not delivered yet and still could. but what i'm seeing in retail is different than payment and the w winners were so beaten d

are also going to be excluded from other kinds of financial transact networks such as a visa or mastercard. right then certainly would be more difficult as well, or maybe it will be impossible. russia has its own domestic card network for people that have failed to leave russia. i would expect that that will continue to operate unaffected by all of this. over to the extent that russians have ford credit cards are issued by russian banks visa, or master quarter to the extent that there are 4 is trying to use for credit cards in russia. this is definitely unexpected. that would be an issue as well. what kind of workarounds are there for russia is trying to work around the swift system. ok, so there are, there are several things that could, that could happen. right. so. busy some of them are things like using other networks, russia, that when an extra credit in 2014 began to establish its own network to rival swift china to do something similar over a number of years. so while they could turn to those networks to, to help process the payments and help with financial messaging, those networks

are also going to be excluded from other kinds of financial transact networks such as a visa or mastercard, right? then certainly would be more difficult as well, but then maybe it will be impossible. russia has its own domestic card network for people that have failed to the russia. i would expect that that would continue to operate unaffected by all of this. over to the extent that russians have 40 credit cards are issued by russian banks visa, or master quarter to the extent that they are for is trying to use ford credit cards in russia. this is definitely, i would expect that that would be an issue as well. what kind of workarounds are there for russia is trying to work around the switch system. okay, so there are, there are several things that could, that could happen, right? so. busy some of them are things like using other network. so russia that with an extra credit in 2014, began to establish its own network to rival swift china to do something similar over a number of years. so well, they could turn to those networks to, to help process the payments and they help with financial m

it canceled plans, but didn't dampen shoppings mastercard says retail sales rose 7.2% last month shoppers returning to stores and keeping up the online habits, too. if you break it down into category, apparel sales rose by almost 38% in january, compared to january 2020. the cpi report noted that the cost of apart was more than 5% high inflation doesn't account for a 28% sales growth rate. luxury jewelry was the stronger cat category, jewelry sales improving 20% in january, well outpacing the 6.5% rate of inflation. the conclusion seems to be that inflation is hot, but the consumer is hotter. >> do we now where they were spending if omicron was spreading the way we know it was, was there a big shift to online? >> they do give a breakdown. there was definitely growth? both those sectors, so the growth online was double digits. in-store, single digits, but that's a bigger piece of the pie. as far as sort of where -- we don't know exactly what retailer, but department stores, for instance, with a call out as a category that was pretty strong. >> it didn't help canada goose, though. >> no, it

kate pointed out the fact that the peer group in the frictionless and digital spend in visa and mastercarddifferent story and should be tailwind time for paypal that's what is disappointing here >> yeah, yesterday we played this -- i don't even know if it is a game -- devalue or deep discount what category does it fall into? >> at six and halftimes into decline wasn't exactly deep discount i would point you to square maybe. square got d down to $100 break out level in 2020, it's going to be down in sympathey as they will report soon it bounced off a hundred with sharp move the all-time high down 290 last summer when you look at a company trading 10 times plus sales we knew there would be deceleration and that's why the stocks have been going down for months maybe do it more than a quarter, just get the guidance so low that they can start to be constructive, i think, going forward. i would probably look at square closer to $100, lows of last week. >> paypal after-hours down 16 perspective. another conference call, gm underway let's get the details. >> we're about 13 minutes into that confer

at mastercard, visa blacklist that, i think that was around your time. it was around 500 entities between 200-2021. the us treasury says 933 percent increase would impact us sanctions have on russia. well, you know, biden has, has explicitly stated that no us combat troops are going to ukraine, that the united states and this, they know partners are not going to go to war with russia over ukraine. so the question then is, what should be the response? if russia goes and invades it's neighbor, and the main response is sanctions, that's how you create a disincentive. both deter, to try to get proven to set, to decide, not to go in and to put pressure on russia. if it does go in these are, these are major sanctions, you know, after the 2014 events, the annexation of crimea interference and don bos sanctions were imposed, but they really didn't go deep into the russian. i mean, i know you dropped. i mean, i don't know actions or would we apply that but there, but they are much more far reaching than 2014 people can watch or do. john bolton trumps the national

and i think also the credit cards or american express mastercard, visa, the computers are in the u. s. they can be switched off. and if every russian who has a credit card of such a companies and most have to feel it, i think that will have an impact on russia, on and on, put in and on these people. sir, you were quoted today in the frankfurt, annoy oppressor, today as saying that defensive weapons should be supplied to ukraine, or you critical of the german government's position on this. and of course, their viewers who might not remember germany has not supplied arms to ukraine and has promised not to is i'm critical. i have been critical also to the government of my own party boasted involved. i think ukraine has all right to get assistance in its legitimate defense. it's an innocent victim of an aggressive neighbor. we haven't seen that since since 1938 since immune crisis. when the german vamp rounded up around czechoslovakia and threatened to invade and then the west breakfast, appeasement. we got the media conference, but we know how that ended up. so that is the precedent an

they do own them, certainly square it's more differentiate in fintech because visa and mastercard havethis move much more broader plays and more reasonably valued on the overall payment ecosystem, that's been to their benefit i still think it's mostly kind of a valuation, rationalization for paypal at a point when market share issue, the ebay hang over lasted longer than expected. >> down 16% after a rough go amd, the semiconductor have been a bright spot, a lot of names reporting better results in that grow showing, a, the fundamentals are pretty sound, though they got swept into the selling on the fed noise and tightening fears. >> yeah. >> and whether it says anything about the ongoing chip shortage and keep inflation elevated here >> it's obviously being addressed. there was a big top-line guide higher for amd seeing nvidia trade up $11 after-hours too so people think it means good things for the leaders in semis right now yeah semis never did sur rend that leadership but towards the lows last week everything got hit hard and semis had a ugly bout in the charts. >> and back to the

are often sold on the internet between 300, 50 to 500 bucks saying this week, american express mastercard and visa have the ability to go beyond what any law enforcement agency or legislature city council can accomplish the new state bills in the works to try and reduce the number of traffic deaths across the state and here in the bay area. >> this comes as the city of san jose is already seen more than a dozen traffic related deaths. so far this year, the assembly bill would allow cities like san jose and san francisco to install speed cameras. san jose mayor sam liccardo supports the bill. he sent us this statement that reads in part, quote, over the past year, san jose, we have seen an alarming rise in traffic fatalities with speeding off and being the cause. the staggering loss of life we see on our street is a preventable tragedy. i applaud assembly member laura friedman's common sense bill to allow cities like ours to deploy speed safety cameras to save lives and keep our streets safe. a three-day weekend almost here. but for anybody traveling and they may notice higher than usual p

crashed because a big coin that just apply that idea across all payments processors across visa, mastercard, across the banking sector, across the central banking sector across the failed nation. states like the united states are great britain, and you see that they can very quickly crash, or enron. remember one day it was $80000000000.00 the next day it was worth 0. it will be very, very quick. one day you wake up probably in 2022. the dollar will i've lost 80 percent of its value against other currencies around the world. big point will be at $800.00 or $900000.00. a coin michael sale will be the richest man in the world, and it will all happen very, very quickly. but, you know, we've been telling you for 10 years like noah. if you didn't get on the arc by now, you know, get an umbrella. so max, believe the us fall or might fall 80 percent it, but other currencies. i don't believe that. i believe it will only fall against big point because that's the only money that will be left standing. all other currencies will fall at the same exact pace. you see it with the all kind market always. th

and 2nd of all, compared to like using visa, mastercard, inside china. the, the information being transacted among individuals to margins are human backing. this financial systems would be off similar levels. so there shouldn't be so much concern iraq dance and of course cash being the most dollars matters. but compared to with the comb, with convenience brought by this e. c. and why? if i should consider try it. the price like you a shop. digital currency is also out of control, like in your videos, could use it as a roommate has methods of course. but also one people tried to use a for their daily lives and people with also trying to use stable highs, which were how late b control up. why did i central banks like them hold the u. s. got 90 will not like be con to replace us dollar either. the singer, lots of mo, jessica, known as the nightingale of india and the queen of melody. aside of the age of 92, she sang more than 30000 songs and 36 languages. her 70 plus years of work on her awards and honors in india and around the world. she dies in the hospi

we just saw mastercard provide data that suggests for january luxury sales are up 45%.ti: i am curious about the momentum luxury stocks will see in the united states. especially when that savings rate that had a lot of people able to buy a lot of these luxury goods, even in the face of the pandemic, even in the face of the remote working environment, now that savings rate is coming back down. fiscal stimulus is that down to normal. does that mean luxury stops lose some of the momentum? swetha: the u.s. has been described as somewhat of an emerging market for many luxury companies because despite having the highest level income per capita, consumers have got engaged with european luxury brands as much. the companies are reporting there are new consumers entering the market, for instance men, consumers from new emerging cities outside new york in san francisco. austin and chicago and detroit stop these have been new luxury hubs for the cost of living could be lower than new york and san francisco, leaving consumers with greater discretionary income. the impact of the stim

of the next 24 or the mastercard is very obvious, but the wind is still coming out of the cold interior across the water over water. so frequent snow shot is not extremely cold. the avalanche services increases their warnings of that in hon. shoot, a certain kind of the areas is cause it should be basing that forest a windy just the north wind coming off at a more goal, your actual splatter. and then is a huge area of sunshine. and you might spot the rain falling in southern china and attempt. you've lived in hong kong. does that strike you as odd? it probably should. i've looked back 3. it's still been this cold. so this is extremely low. it's about 4 degrees below what the nighttime should be. so we are talking about 3 cold wet, miserable days with a northerly wind will end, but not quickly fairly, obviously, that same line of rain, especially back through me and more than dies out. so we go to a circulation here which is inducing showers in southern bangladesh. there are a few in the northeast of india and snow showers for the north in the foot in the himalaya. the northern plain of

it's very different when you're in the crypto world because you know, visa, mastercard and paper and cracked on someone. and you know, bank of america and chased incorrect on someone, but big coining as it were, can't crack down on something doesn't work that way. but i wanted to read you something that would send us new conference. and pretty interesting. the statement was, we're calling about all companies dealing with crypto currency. we need a root out crypto currency abuses to those who do not. we will hold you accountable, where we can to those who do not help rude out crypto currency abuses. why is it the responsibility of d, f. i companies to find crypto currency abuses and to help route them out. it's not the job of law enforcement and the state makes it sound like you're going to try to make a good currency exchanges, financial it or even criminally liable if they don't help to root out those problems. yeah, that's an excellent question, especially if you're on the f b i say, and like we don't really fully understand everything that goes on with their differences, that we'r

visa and mastercard fowmed and said if we can't use swift we can't deal with niece russian banks eithernd they essentially shut them out of using those credit card transactions. and the russians had to develop their own alternative system for processing credit cards. this is a huge deal not just for russian oligarchs or million airs or billionaires. it will impact russian citizens. mike: i know you are familiar are the russian military. how surprised do you think putin and their top commanders are from the resistance they are getting ukrainians. >> russians should be winning this war. they should be crushing the ukrainians. russia has not deployed the bulk of their forces against ukraine. they only put in 40 to 50 percent of their forces. i think putin thought they would be able to go in and mop up easily. they were trained by u.s. forces, nato forces. so they know how to fight. they have been waging this war for 8 years, they knew what they were facing and they have been ready for it. mike: you have written that putin could choke on ukraine. >> eventually i think vladimir putin will th

today the pentagon said 160 members of mastercard were here training, troops evacuating immediately. most ukraine sweep spoke with you are likely at the coffee shop the young girl worried, they just don't have time to spend time running on it. the shop here in town, it just seems like business as usual, just not sure people understand what could be coming pretty soon as soon as wednesday. molly: is startling to see umpteen making homemade weapons when we know how powerful the russian military. thank you for your reporting, really appreciate it there on the ground. we are joined by general jack keane, retired, fox news senior strategic analyst, general, thank you so much for joining us saturday afternoon. i want to get right to this call today president biden had with president putin, he talked about imposing swift and severe cross on russia should russia essentially move in and continue. what are potential risks russia could face? >> this is not without risk. i really believe he started this whole affair with the idea he get concession using military force obviously as the intimidato

so many companies out of the gate that have dividend increase i looked at abbvie and chevron and mastercard and u.p.s with shell this morning, they are compelling when you look at companies that are increasing earnings and growing their deaf cont dividends at the same time very impactful >> is that the kind of year it is tech has made everybody the money. qqqs have doubled in the last four to five years should we be thinking more about just getting paid? that return of capital instead of return on capital >> that's the foundation of our firm try to get paid while we wait for better times you see the companies increase values it is setting expectations i want to talk to you about mcdonald's today mcdonald's is a stong ck that is not a faang name i analyzed over the last five years. at the end of 2016, mcdonald's was trading at $160 a share. it increased to $268 that is 160% return just on mcdonald's >> a lot of money in big macs. they are a landlord. more than they sell burgers. kevin simpson. i appreciate it. good names to watch. have a great day >>> folks, that does it for us on "worldwide

down 25% now how do you square that with what we just heard from mastercard and visa and american express and -- what do you do with those stocks with all the payment stock clearly not moving in the same direction and seeing the say the fundamentals. >> yes so payments in general, payments that the expectations for payment stocks reset pre-quarter. how we became a bit more construct everybody on the network. gpm and pfizer trading 15 times next year's numbers. paypal is pretty expensive pre-print, and i would say the same thing about square. so at this point i think you're getting your recalibration in terms of pe multiples given the fact a lot of those trends that really took off during the pandemic are reverting to where they were pre-pandemic. so i think paypal will, looking better, but you do need to see that acceleration during the second half of the year to get that catalyst going. >> sticking with outperform jp 175 price target >> we are. as i said before, paypal's outlook was different than the networkal because of transactions that have shifted for paypal and not benefiting from

when you look at the competition in digital and online payments and frictionless payments, mastercardisaare formidable and the numbers they showed were actually quite good. i think the environment we have where we're punching multiple stocks is not going to change. it's not going to change in a world as we talked about yesterday, the seven price hikes on the horizon for '22 that may be aggressive, but i think we're still trying to figure out what the multiples are on these stocks. the fact that jpmorgan went from 280 to 190 on an announcement, tells you that the street is still behind. >> it's interesting, a lot of price targets got slashed but the ratings bemand the same pretty much. cramer is all over the paypa plunge he wrote about it today. check out. all the information you need is on your screen coming up, retail on the rise. shares of capri are on the rise. we're getting fresh commentary from meta's earnings call. the stock is still down by about 22% after hours. yill tell you what they're sang about the quarter when "fast money" returns from day one to graduation to your dream

visa, amex and mastercard trading higher amex is a big winner here. >> are we to infer that cash appunch? >> it is interesting it was a big surprise based on the demographic. venmo is seen as a coastal millennial that uses venmo cash app is used based on data in lower income demographics and that was a big surprise for analysts saying they expect things like inflation and the end of stimulus checks to hit block further so i think the expectations in that sense lower for cash app and seem to have a different slice of the market at this point definitely competing and cash app is growing it seems like and adding more and more profitable than venmo for paypal. >> surprising but also not thank you. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ >>> thank you. welcome to "power lunch. here's what's ahead to round up the busy week. is this rebound for real stocks today building on the turn around that began 24 hours ago. the dow having the best day in more than a year now the markets are thinking maybe the worst is over between ukraine and russia is that true one of the b

what we've heard from american express, from visa, mastercard, even from citi yesterday, there is a lot of spending going on for travel over the next six months and booking will be a major beneficiary. they don't have a lot of costs on the labor side compared to many service companies and we just think this is sort of positioned for our 30+ percent return over the next year or so. >> okay. good stuff i want to jump to steve liesman, if i can for a moment. he has breaking news and some headlines from mester of the fed. steve? >> yeah. scott, cleveland federal reserve president says rate increases will be needed in the coming months and i'll in back to that in a second and faster increaseser possible if inflation doesn't moderate by mid year and slow ones also could be possible if inflation does moderate more than expected so if conditions warrant faster balance sheet reduction and she supports outright sales of mortgage-backed securities and what's significant about what lor loretta mester is saying, when she comes back and says faster increases i think she means the potential for 50 bas

so mastercard is working alongside them, with ways to get more businesses online, and hundreds of millionshida... black women business owners lift the entire economy. when our businesses grow, we all grow! make a purchase that makes a difference... and start something priceless sweet pillows of softness! this is soft! holy charmin! excuse me! roll it back everybody! charmin ultra soft is so cushiony soft, you'll want more! but it's so absorbent, you can use less. enjoy the go with charmin. >> sarah palin, she's suing th new york times for defamation. today, she took the stand an testified against the old grea lady, during the life trial in manhattan. the former alaskan governor an republican vice presidential nominee told the court, sh felt powerless to respond to a times editorial in 2017. that editorial incorrectly suggested a link between the 2 2011 shooting of the arizona congresswoman gabby gets hurts and this graphic sent out by sarah palin's political action committee. it showed crosshairs on th districts held by giffords and other democrats and the lead u to the 2010 midterm electi

and 2nd of all, compared to like using visa, mastercard, a inside china, the information would be transacted among individuals to merchants are human backing. this financial systems would be off similar levels. so there shouldn't be so much concern rock bands and of course cash be the most dollars there. but compared to with the comb with calvin is brought by this e. c. and why? if i should consider try it, the price like you a shop, did you, the currency is also out of control like individuals could use it as a roommate has method, of course, but also one people tried to use it for their daily lives. people would also tend to use some stable cause, which would how late be controlled. ok, why did by central banks, for example, the u. s. got money, not like, because to replace us dollar either. a historic bridge or in the dodge city of rasa down could be dismantled to allow a super your to bills for the amazon found jeff bezos to pass a cities considering a request from a ship builder for the bridge to be taken down temporarily. if approve the balloon at would have to cover the cost the yacht

. >> if all of this works, would you short the visas and mastercards and paypals and stripes of the worldg to be partnering with companies like us to try to boost their business through blockchain technology we know that for places like visa they're very much getting into crypto and technology. >> thank you for waking up early, and thank you for bringing us that fun ad. >> yes, absolutely appreciate it. mike >> thank you let's get to dom chu who's looking at premarket movers. pretty busy morning, dom. >> let's look at the harder commodity assets as opposed to the others that andrew and brett were talking about the french markets and europe are taking it on the chin mostly because of the developments in ukraine, russia. is there going to be an invasion, not going to be an invasion the risk perspective is affected the germany dax is off 3%, the france and contact, almost 4%. by the way the footsie and italy down 3% and the broader measure across the continent, iuorio stops down 6.5% as well. the euro stocks are the epicenter of the downdraft we're seeing globally in our own markets. one of

visas, mastercards disney solid companies that have sold off and could get the potential to sell off even more. so if you're a long-term investor now, we haven't seen this in a couple of years, so i think the chance to buy companies if you missed it the first time or add to them i think will be there, but this is not an easy period, kelly. you're going to have to have a strong stomach and as we go forward with rates moving up, oil prices going up and a lot of overhang, this could be a good opportunity for the next six months to a year >> can you explain to me in simple terms what go daddy does and how they make, what they charge for i never really understood it >> you've seen the commercials >> sure. >> so if you're a small business and you want to put up a website, it's your place to go you can buy the url from them. they will also service the website for you. they'll put the security on for you. they'll sell you additional services that in itself is an annuity business as they add that on, that growth >> how did they get to own the urls >> they bought a whole bunch in the past so t

you look at amex and things are improving and visa and mastercard and you have paypal who kitchen sinked it and i'm there with pete and figure out what i'm going to do having said that, the fundamentals here, this is a great story in terms of where they are if you look at venmo and maybe venmo could be the catalyst maybe amazon takes venmo on and they get a new runway ahead. i'm looking for green chutes here they have a great business in crypto and a great business in payments and they have a great business and the execution has been terrible. so at this point, kind of -- is it worth it to sell it now and come back later, maybe i don't know, but i need a couple of days to think about that, but i do think the stock is washed out and i'm not sure the p-e went down. it is the same, if not higher. sarat doing the math for us. >> i think the business is still good, and it's just not been run very well. >> here's the question, though we've been talking about apple and alphabet and posted very, very strong, solid earnings. their p-es are about the same as paypal owe, brenda, with that in mind,

consider companies such as blackrock, mastercard, or tgx companies that have had double-digit growthz: yeah. we're showing these dividend plays here. blackrock pays what, 2.5%. tjx, 1.57%. give me quickly, we've got about 30 seconds for you and 30 seconds for ryan, we're hearing reports now getting pretty, pretty serious. the dow is down 612. would you advise investors to hold tight, kevin at the moment? >> i think investors should take true to the risk tolerance. not necessarily get more aggressive with the market going up or conservative when the market is going down. consider what your longer term financial objectives are, areas of market should benefit from the market outlook as i just discussed with the dividend growers. liz: ryan, quickly, markets move higher tomorrow, a little bit of a bounce or not. >> i'm wildly bullish here whether tomorrow, it is going to. economy is growing. we'll get past the ukraine situation right now. you can't sit in cash earning nothing. inflation is over 7%. kevin said it best, dividends paying you, going up. an inflation hedge. you need productive