>> well, essentially merrill lynch offered land and entered into a nonprosecution agreement with theernment on behalf of merrill lynch the company that was extremely and in fact, they agreed to have overseer from the task force installed in merrill lynch forth a period of 18 monts to oversee everything including the bill that is m the defense lawyers were submitting. they agreed that no merrill lynch employee could say anything that contradicted the government's view of the prosecution which was absolutely astounding and i think illegal and then merrill lynch executives -- >> so the government secretes itself within the company it's investigating? >> yes. >> to oversee the bills that they are paying defense counsel? >> yes, and everything else that's going on. >> unconstitutional, four executives indicted, what happened to them? >> their lives were destroyed. e they went to 10-year period of hell, there was investigation and then indicted and then they face trials. the trial was a circus. a detail of it linkedin my book. >> this book? license to lie? >> yes. they were tried in housto

mark: was wiseman involved in merrill lynch? . >> yes. not the company but one of the reasons they indicted anderson was to send a message to other companies that if they knock on your door you better cooperate or you could be destroyed to give the death penalty just like anderson. mark: if you didn't do anything? that is the power that a handful of prosecutors have. >> yes. >> you even see it today with indictments it is all one-sided. nobody has any say they don't get a chance to respond with a group of government lawyers have decided to charge somebody or an entity with crimes is the beginning of the process not the end i want to pursue this later because the media treats it as set but i want to talk about these executives with merrill lynch. >> essentially they offered a sacrificial lamb entering into a nonprosecution agreement with the government on behalf of merrill lynch the company that was extremely onerous they agreed to have an overseer for the enron task force installed in merrill lynch over 18 months to oversee everything inc

bank of america acquired merrill lynch a decade ago during the financial crisis. it purchased u.s. trust from charles schwab in >2006. he head of the european union is urging british prime ministerheresa may to delay the uk's exit from the eu, which is scheduled for the end of march. donald tusk said that would be a, quote, rational solution given the political situation and the lack of a brexit strategy. but may says the delay will not solve the impasse in parliament and that a timely exit is within reach. >> we havein it wiur grasp, as i just said, i've had a real sense from the meetings i've had here,onrsations i've had with eu leaders in recent days, real sense that we can achieve that deal. it's within our grasp to leave with a deal on the 29th of march and that's where all my energies are going to be focuse t >> meantime head of britain's opposion laborarty said he could back a second referendum if his party won power. >>> the treasury departmenas announced new sanctions against venezuela. the sanctionsarget the governors of four venezuelan states who are connected to embattl

now for more analysis on the jobs report, and he is head of global economics at bank of america merrill lynch. welcome, ethan, nice to have you yore. >> thank >> when you look at this report, what's not to like? even the participation rate w good. >> yeah, this was a check all the box report. there's one factoid you didn't mention. payrollwnobs have g an average of 240,000 over the last three months. that's abo double the normal pace of job growth in a trend-like economy so this was a very, very robust report. >> wage gwth 3% year over year. that's above what the fed had been looking for, but yet they're willing to be patient in raising rates down the road. is there disconnect there at all? >> no, i don't tnk so. i think that after two years of a hot labor market, we're now ingetting the of wage gains you would expect, but it hasn't anslated into price inflation. i think the fed is in a pretty patient mood ther they want to see first evidence his recent stock market shock isn't really hurting the economy, and they're going to wait a while just to fige that out. they're not focused on inflatio

bank of america merrill lynch data strategist sanjay mookim is here.nsions -- do you think people are being to sanguine about it? we have seen recoveries, but it is not moving the dial much. think mine and everybody's hope is that this ends up being [indiscernible] logic demands there is no upside for india or pakistan to have something that is not controlled. neither economy can afford deterioration. india is heading into elections. i think investors are reflecting the view this will not damage any side permanently. rishaad: we keep talking about the indian market last year, which ended up positive by the end of 2018. this is quite the reverse. how much of this is down to people fearful of this election, higher premiums, higher valuations -- we have a lot of debt issues, especially as far as banks go. is it those three things, making people look to north asia instead? sanjay: yes, i would characterize it more broadly as a down cycle in sentiment. i think the economy is on the uptrend. it is mending from the transition. hard numbers in india, whether i

trust and merrill lynch brand names from its subsidiaries the banks, u.s. ate bank and the private wealth unit renamed just merrill bank of america to drop merrill lynch from the investment banking and markets operation. the bank, of course, bought merrill lynch in 2008 in the financial crisis banks with a decent day, a main reason for the move on the story. end 0 of an era. always trying to simplify and bring things together. >> exactly also really an acknowledgement that the merrill brand with much more resonance from the retail brokerage opposed to the investment bank. also all banks are now kind of leading with their brands. ubs is -- financial investor is a ubs adviser. smith barney is put to rest. by morgan stanley as well as naming a bunch of other ones dean whiter. i think it's part of a trend and i guess also solidifying the bank of america, unifying the branding more. >> stephanie, warren buffett called out the job of moynihan has done and bigger position is bank of america and can't buy more of that does that -- and more broadly, buffett positive

good time to buy some hedges that's according to david, head of em strategy at bank of america merrill lynch. >>> well, the u.s. shutdown showdown could be over after congress passed a bill to keep the government open. the bill now heads to president trump who is expected to rubber stamp it later today however, the white house has said trump will also declare a national emergency in order to secure more funding for his border wall. it's a decision that has drawn fire from both democrats and republicans alike. nbc's blaine alexander has the story. >> reporter: after passing the house, clearing the final hurdle on capitol hill -- >> the yea's are 300, the nay's are 128. >> reporter: a compromised spending bill to avert another government shutdown tomorrow now headed to president trump. it sets the stable for a new battle the president planning to sign the bill, but with executive action, a national emergency declaration to bypass congress and get more money for the border wall. democrats already considering a legal challenge. >> we will not have an enron around the congress of the united state

merrill lynch survey recently, you have j.p. morgan asset management, but sounding the warning on emerging assets more broadly, hsbc and merrill lynch. some to virgins coming through in the big houses. we have had big reports today. let's get into the metals in the minors. they have come in with their annual capex guidance, midterm unchanged. running 6.7 to 6.8. iron ore could get to $100 because of the tragedy at the dam. for guidance for capital spending and underlying profits, 4.03 was the number. let's try to make sense of the capex, the numbers, and the possible outlook for iron ore. formanaging editor joins us the commodities team in singapore. always good to see you. what are the indications on the impact of the slowdown from china? alex: good morning. it is obviously a concern for bhp. they get revenue from china, their biggest market, and they flagged what they see as a modest slowdown in china of economic growth over the next year. that will be a headwind for the company. they are not going over the top, but clearly it

ianda: despite that optimism, want to drill in on the latest survey from bank of america merrill lynch, representing money managers. what you're looking at is the amount they are allocating to cash. highest in a decade. it raises that question of just where the risk on appetite is. incidentally, it pairs with another piece of the survey that says emerging markets may be coming out of favor. one good question is where the cash goes now that it is on the sidelines. shery: one thing i'm looking at right now is what is happening in europe.rowth we have seen those economic numbers out of europe really ly underperforming and missing estimates. that is a concern for global growth. fed and otherhe central banks starting to turn dovish. theda: interesting to see worst of all worlds, as the chief economist at allianz said, if france stop supplying and germany stops producing, you are in trouble. that is what the data is showing. the whole euro could be tracking 41% growth, and that is not enough for the rest of the world, let alone the weaker parts of that economy. shery: those numbers not looki

merrill lynch was once the world's largest retail brokerage. to selena gomez. ariana grande, now the most followed woman on instagram, overtaking selena gomez with more than 146 million followers. according to billboard, 13 million people followed gran grande on instagram in the last four months. anyway, here's this, folks. aqua man star jason momoa wants free girl scout cookies after his picture was used to sell samoa cookies. one girl scout got the idea to the pictures on the boxes and brand them momoa samoas. sales skyrocketed. jason momoa says he wants a cut. he says i'm not a big span of ff samoas but he wants the girl scouts to send him trefoil cookies. maria: he sees the pictures on the boxes. they didn't check with him before putting the pictures on the boxes. cheryl: no, it might have been a good idea. dagen: it was one girl scout who put his picture on the box. cheryl: he's totally joking. dagen: by the way, he's -- i didn't know he was married to lisa bonet until he was on the red carpet with her. >> he wore a scr unchie as a wristba

jonathan: most crowded trades for the bank of america-merrill lynch fund manager survey.you continue to stick with it or do you fade it? michael: our expectation is em is very attractive right now. doug: it doesn't trade like it is long. it had for a while. i don't believe the survey. krishna: just to be clear to doug's point, it was more about em. long em. jonathan: great to catch up with you all. that does it for us. this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. >> chevron commits to venezuela. the company attempts to stay on the ground. more from our exclusive intervie

jonathan: most crowded trades for the bank of america-merrill lynch fund manager survey.you continue to stick with it or do you fade it? michael: our expectation is em is very attractive right now. doug: it doesn't trade like it is long. it had for a while. i don't believe the survey. krishna: just to be clear to doug's point, it was more about em. long em. jonathan: great to catch up with you all. that does it for us. this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. >> chevron commits to venezuela. more from our exclusive interview. zane -- the battle in nigeria. we assess the oil supply risk. clarity in diamonds.

. >>> bank of america, merrill lynch highlighting higher cost of capital and rising volati volatility joining us from bank of america/merrill lynch to talk about this, savita subramanian. >> unless the fed starts aggressively easing and does another round of qe, it's hard to imagine short rates will go lower from here. and then if you look at other sources of upward pressure on the cost of capital, you've got credit relatively tight and tightening over the next couple of months, higher penalty on owning debt from a corporate standpoint given that tax reform now isn't as advantageous for corporate debt owners. and then you've got, you know, all sorts of other up ward pressures on the cost of capital which conspire against companies that have high leverage ratios, that need to borrow to grow their businesses so i think where we are right now is an environment where probably the most important decision that we make as investors when we look at our portfolios is do i own companies that generate capital or do i own companies that need capital to survive and what you want to stick with are

jonathan: most crowded trades in the bank of america merrill lynch fund manager survey.mber one -- you continue to stick with it or do you fade it? michael: our expectation is em is very attractive right now. doug: it doesn't trade like it is long. it doesn't. it had for a while. i don't believe the survey. krishna: just to be clear to doug's point, it was more about em. long em. jonathan: great to catch up with you all. that does it for us. this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ the latest innovation from xfinity isn't just a store. it's a save more with a new kind of wireless network store. it's a look what your wifi can do now store. a get your questions answered by awesome experts store. it's a now there's one store that connects your life like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. manus: you're watching "best of bloomberg daybreak: middle east." the major stories driving the headlines this week. an egyptian billionaire tells bloomberg europe is a mess and brexit is a disaster. but he says he says he's intere

. >>> grubhub was upgraded to buy frtral at bank of america merrill lynch. the analyst said the recent investments in marketing should drive that company's growth going forward. price target now $108. shares rose more than 4.5% today to $86.08. >>> still ahead,ve thege college grad has $30,000 of debt, but we'll show you one school that's trying to he >>> time now for our weekly market monitor who likes stocks diat he his are l the digital transformation and names you should own longer term. this is his first time on the program.s joining us michael lippert, portfo oo managerthe baron opportunity fund. welcome. >> tha >> let's get right to your picks. leading technology companie guide wire software is the first one. whyt? do you like >> they sell software to the property and asualty insurance company, a massive industry. this is still on green screen technology and they're going to shift to modern digital software, interacting with customers in a different way. guidewire is dominant in this space. ey have never lost a customer. very few businesses that can s

that's according to the statement from bank of america merrill lynch.nue tofunds see outflows losing $700 million in the most recent week. we've had about $41 million in redemptions out of u.s. equity funds this year despite the big rally we've had. the data showing a lot of love for em stocks, we $.2 billion going back there. -- $3.2 billion going back there. a lot of folks chasing that yield, $4 billion going back into ig, $4.5 billion or so going back into high-yield bonds. i want to pick up looking at those blows into high-yield -- flows into high-yield bond funds. look at the u.s. high-yield bond index, reaching a record high as you get a whole lot of enthusiasm here. companies able to sell bonds again. how long can this last? look at the morgan stanley research looking at when in the rate hiking cycle spreads widen. when spreads widen, that's a loss in the value of the funds. existing bonds go down in price to compensate for higher yields allowed for. as you get further into the rate hiking cycle, the second half of the rate cut cycle is where you

ik: we know greg fleming's name from morgan stanley and merrill lynch.w that greg fleming runs a marathon. great to see you. gregory: great to see you. erik: let's remind everybody what you're doing. rockefeller capital management. yet the legacy business of rockefeller and company but you are doing more. the core of what we are doing his wealth management for ultra high net worth individuals and family. high end wealth management. we do it through rockefellers global family office. a privateat we have wealth management division and a multi family office. the private wealth management division leads with the investment focus and the multi family office is more planning led. we announced a new president, tim o'hara, who had a long career in that space. clients get the same products and services whether they are in the private wealth side of our family office or the multi family office line. the multi family office is little bit more planning, the other side is investment led. you get asset allocation, investment advice, crossgenerational planning, a full

rishaad: our guests is still with us from bank of america merrill lynch.ill it be too little, too late? that is the fundamental question. >> it is. our analysis and guys in london, generally the consensus in london is a view that rationality will ultimately prevail. the stakes are higher and higher and the damage done to the .conomy the bluff will be called and the deal will pass. if not, we play for an extension. seehould seem we should sterling rally against the dollar from here, although what has been troubling for the past week is that hasn't been the case even though that seems to be the main case. yvonne: would you buy sterling now? >> yes, that is where we believe the rationality will prevail. i think there are two things going on, obviously a perspective from taking a view that rationality will prevail is fair enough, but from a corporate perspective side, you have to be doing hedging and make contingencies, which has also being -- been going on. it is not a purely financial and economic decision. as we lead into this decision at the end of march,

date of the next american merrill lynch weighing on the latest development in the u.s.-china trade war and how it is affecting its currency outlooks. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back. you are watching bloomberg markets. the dollar has been topsy-turvy this week. you look at the move overnight, better compared to the last 48 hours following reports that beijing are proposing to buy an additional $30 billion a year worth of agricultural goods out of the u.s. rishaad: let's have a look at the implications for this with our asia fx, the bank of america merrill lynch director for asia fx. strategist. how important is to give this deal done, to get this choose out of the way and perhaps have some clarity here? >> yeah, hi. get definitely they do something by the end of this month, it will be positive for asian assets in particular. we will see some sort of relief happening on the back of it, even though a lot of it has been priced in. i can definitely sea breeze -- see a relief rally. >> it's certainly been lifted by this news. do you think these currencies are maybe trad

electronics arts one of the best performers, thanks to an upgrade by analysts over at bank of america merrill lynch. one of the best, one of the worst, and then another thing to keep an eye on the stellar performance of small caps out the gate in 2019 year to date. you can see the russell 2000 beating out the s&p's 8% gain, so that white line there, certainly one to watch in this trade. >>> welcome to "the exchange" everybody, i'm kelly evans, morgan stanley is declares the earnings recession is here, and more slowing economy news out of the china. spending growth fell to the lower left since 2005. seema mody is down at the new york stock exchange with a look at the slowdown concerns, seema? >> it's becoming increasingly clear that the global economy is slowing down, first china, now there's further evidence of europe feeling the pain, the uk posting the slowest growth rate since 2012 the imf coming down. that's boosting safe haven demand for the u.s. dollar, which is now on track for the eighth consecutive -- but tech weigh on global stocks, which have done pretty well this year, up over 10%, in f

strategy at bank of america merrill lynch.t was the number one takeaway for you from these meeting minutes? mark: i think the most important take away was the signaling they had about the balance sheet. most think it's appropriate to end the balance sheet this year. he don't know when that will be. there was a presentation that suggested the latter half of this year, which raises risks they might announce something in june and implement it in july. or, they could way deeper in this year. outlook for the path of policy and interest rates, the committee seemed divided. they indicated they were happy to be patient right now and wait for further incoming information. it seems they need more time to assess the economy and figure out how some of the big uncertainties on the horizon will play themselves out. nomaine: we know they will edn -- and the bind down -- wind down, but they will continue a runoff with the mortgage backed securities. how do we reconcile those two --ments of this new resave reshape balance sheet and what it say

bank of america has announced plans to drop the merrill lynch brand from its investment bank and tradingations the lender also said in a statement it will gradually dissolve another one of its brands, u.s. trust this is part of the ceo's strategy to focus the bank's branding efforts. >> i wanted to do the research what have you encountered or what have you learned or begun to understand better about the way that humans approach risk in the run-up to those events >> well, there are a couple of messages, and thank you, by the way, for having me here. the fist one is that people seem extremely relaxed about the economy, at the time that things are going well, and we see this today as well. it's not that 2008 was different. we have many risks facing the world economy, political system from russia, from italy, from brexit, from china markets remain extremely calm and seem to being inning the risk they're facing. zoo how does that translate into the behavior of market participants >> well, one of the things you see, of course, is that volatility is extremely low, and markets remain at extremel

that was raised by bank of america merrill lynch., today, we had more news that they seem to be getting to grips with certain manipulation of the overall facebook product and other spaces coming from iran. sarah: today, we have heard that they have found more problems iran out of people in trying to manipulate political conversations around the world using fake accounts. basically, they are impersonating people in very us countries and then using that to manipulate the conversation. sharing what the iranian government media has been saying. we don't know that these accounts are from the iranian government, but we do know they are spreading the same messages. that is concerning. the bright spot here in this particular set of news is that facebook found that through collaboration with twitter. so, there has been some collaboration among industry rivals to try to solve some of these societal problems that their platforms have brought. i think we unfortunately can't listen to some of the sound we were going to be bringing you from the co

i would like to bring in steve of bank of america, merrill lynch.ging markets. if the commodity complex does turn more bearish, it would be good for emerging markets. this chart is neutral to bullish. has been nicely is it held the broken trendline that goes back to 2011. the other thing that is significant about this chart is the s&p did hit a near you today low in december. when i look at this chart, i think we completed a double bottom off the lows above the 900 level. even given wiggle room, down to 1000. i think we could see this retrace much of the rally especially if we can start training above the 40-week moving average. , possiblybove 1039 1160 on emerging markets. abigail: it would suggest we are seeing a breakout of sorts. scarlet was talking about how we are on a stalemate on the date. here we go over to the long-term, another weekly chart. talk about what you see here. >> i like looking at weekly charts. it gets rid of the daily noise. today, we are getting a little bit of noise. secular is a rising 200-week moving average. we also test

data from bank of america merrill lynch says their corporate client buybacks have surged 91% year-over-yearor buybacks from the senate, senate minority leader chuck schumer joined 2020 presidential candidates bernie sanders and elizabeth warren calling for changes that would ban companies from buying its own shares unless they make invests companywide bumming pay to $15 an hour across the board and offering paid sick leave. there is growing bipartisan support for some stock buyback tax. republican senator marco rubio thinking about a plan would weasel away he says the tax advantage that incentivizes stock buybacks. a tax on trading volume is starting to trend in washington. democratic senator schatz is proposing a transaction tax on trading volume a way to bring in bucks to fund the new progressive platform. the revenue from .1% tax on value of a securities trade could raise over $777 billion over a decade. connell? connell: hillary vaughn there in washington. lauren. lauren: we have jon hilsenrath, "wall street journal" global economics editor, fox news contributor, erin gibbs investment a

. >> at the same time, bank of america merrill lynch said investors keep going for now and buy the market drop. what do our guests think rich weisz, chief investment officer with american century investments. we'll tighten up your title there a little bit i can't even pronounce it. ron insana, a key adviser to schroeder's, a global asset manager. would we be surprised after the kind of comeback in january that the market is taking a little bit of a breather? >> dramatically oversold to pretty overbought in a relatively short period of time and january was as strong if not stronger than last year, so it was a pretty fast start out of the gate this year valuations, obviously came down a lot but as bob pisani was suggesting, we're seeing an issue with earnings estimates being lowered fairly dramatically and that's a head wind for the market as with the china trade talks. earnings are not growing >> not growing, absolutely with estimates coming down, it is easier for companies to beat expectations, but we're coming off, as we start talking about last march, maybe peak profits and peak profit

merrill lynch recently surveyed that cash is overweight since 2009. is it cash or where they are putting positions? >> a little of both but cash is a very relevant point because if you look at the -- at the selloff november of last year, a lot of investors were overweight cash and of sharp rally we are seeing today, which was triggered by the fed chairman investors havee said this is the most unpopular bull market in a long time. nejra: let me ask about the balance sheet because this is something we have been thinking about. it showed most officials saw an end to the balance sheet rolloff this year and i was asking the question, is that which we should assume -- what we should assume? you got a note out today saying this is surprising, the timing of this. it shows the fed almost reacted in a panic mode to the market. and this took, the market by surprise and why we are rallying today. the is also surprising is data that was strong in january and forcing people to question whether the fed is behind the curve. that said, if you look at inflation data, i

also getting an upgrade, electronic arts climbing at this hour after bank of america merrill lynch rated it a buy from a neutral. ea tacking on gains from friday when it released this news that its first free-to-play game, apex legends, racked up more than ten million players in the first 72 hours. this is the one that's supposed to take on fortnite, ten cents, yeah. while ea is up about 1%, activision is the biggest loser on the s&p 500. this ahead of earnings tomorrow. bloomberg reports the company may announce hundreds of job cuts once they announce the report. we are going to follow that for you. we also have activision down 7.5%. take two down nearly 4%. >>> congressional negotiators heading back to capitol hill at this hour to try and revive talks over border security. the u.s. seemingly hurtling towards another costly government shutdown after a tense budget deal that included border security funds turned sour this weekend or simply turned off. blake burman is at the white house with the very latest. this just keeps going. i guess they kind of got to a certain point but not the fi

stocks what's interesting is that this year, the most crowded trade according to bank of america, merrill lynchd manager is em and everybody is confident about china. you have to be to like em. >> or you could be playing the dollar, that would weaken and some pressure off of e. m. currencies and they extension, their opportunities with local currency terms to buy the markets whether it's their debt or equities. it got crowded quickly everyone was looking for e.m. to do wonderfully and now outperformed the u.s if, again, we see improvement in china and in the u.s., it's probably still a good bet and if the dollar continues the weaken, that's also a tactical trade that people have on, just making a bet solely on the dollar declining against those currencies. >> some more headlines coming in president xi is saying he hopes both sides will redouble efforts to meet halfway. in the meantime, we do want to bring in tim seymour, a trader with some china stock picks. tim, you like this market overall? where are we in the valuation of the overall market >> chinese stocks are very cheap in terms of their

before he was known as "the goat," the greatest of all time, he was a college summer intern at merrill lynche ver owens was his -- oliver owens was his best. at the end of internship he said to the famous quarterback "you're a dime a dozen." you are a clipboard holder. encouraging him to start a career in finance. here now oliver owens. it's good to have you with. welcome. >> thank you. >> martha: you said that quote from you is not the way it sounded when it came out of your mouth. explain what you did say. >> it's really not. he was a quick-take guy. a smart guy. everybody liked him. i thought he would be great in finance. i could see him in a board room. i could see him reading a chart like he does on a football field. i thought that was his greatness. football was less so. i didn't mean that he was like a dime a dozen, just kind of so-so and wouldn't amount to much. he was smart, great talent. so it comes off a little bit rough. >> martha: i thought it was funny. you were asked about it in an article i read, you said yeah, so he chose another out. he went another way as it turns out. >>

charles: despite a recent rally in equity markets, according to the latest bank of america, merrill lynch18 global fund managers, the most crowded trade is emerging markets. last year, so you can understand, some of the most crowded trades included bitcoin and those "fang" stocks. overall fund managers, global equity allocation, currently at lowest level since september of 2016. these pros made a massive shift into cash, increased 6 percentage points, to 44% during the january rally, one for the record books. that sum of cash is mind-boggling and suggests these people that know it all might be looking for a market crash. by the way the least favorite equity sectors, again for the folks managing more than $600 billion cop best of my knowledged, they didn't like industrials and din like energy which are by the way up 16% and 12% respectively. now for me it is amazing how they continue to get it wrong, so wrong. the question now of course, do they stick with their current thinking or will they make adjustments? if there is a general epiphany, hey, we were wrong, we could see a whole lot of m

another interesting point bank of america merrill lynch published a report stating there's so much cashd me watch, people will read the headlines, get into the market, all the people with cash on the side lines will take that cash because they will feel like they are missing out and they are going to further add into the markets so we should a rally in the coming weeks or months. this is all hyperbole. david: despite what you say about gucci, there are a lot of companies that are noting a significant slowdown in china. and -- >> apple, caterpillar -- david: exactly, i would just wonder if that's going to turn around with this deal. a lot of their slowdown is not only internal, stuff that they've been doing wrong, like the government taking over more private companies, but also europe. europe is not buying as much. we have become sort of the sole buyer. so is china going to pull out of this even if we get a deal? >> pull out of the deal? david: no, pull out of the slowdown that they are in middle of. >> i think it is probably one lever, but they have internal problems of their own. i mea

bank of america merrill lynch upgraded the european auto sector from neutral to bearish for the firstin nine months now taking a look at the auto sector this morning, we are seeing stocks trade lower, but as i mentioned earlier, we did see a big bounce on friday so perhaps just getting back some of those gains we saw at the end of last week now switching gears away from the auto sector, wild card says an external law firm has found no evidence of misconduct by its employees. the payments firm saw its share price tank last week after a financial times report about financial irregularities at its office in singapore. the german firm issued a statement that the investigations finding, quote, fundamentally contradicts the ft's report and in fact, confirmed the strength of its government procedures. >>> meanwhile in the airline space, ryanair reported a 20 million euro loss in the third quarter and blamed on weaker fares. they expect the losses to continue through 2019, means forecast profits for the year to march will drop 31%. the company also blames strikes, higher oil prices and overal

exactly >> they'll not have robert frank as a customer just yet a new note from bank of america/merrill lynch downgrading deere from buy to neutral. but highlighting the fact that they -- deere is still dominating caterpillar outperformed by more than 30 percentage points. can you explain this one that's shocking. >> historically speaking, deere and caterpillar, the stocks, have been correlated in terms of how they trade the fact we've seen this over the past year is noteworthy. we've got this downgraduate from b of a today and the argument they are making is lack of apparent progress between washington and beijing weaker demand for construction equipment. it's a valuation story they think this stock is going to come down based on the earnings we're supposed to get later this week. >> is deere as opposed to china as caterpillar is? two stocks became the poster children for the tariff battle that was boeing and caterpillar. and when the talks were going well, caterpillar would go up. when they were going badly, it would go down. we never talked about deere. >> they're exposed selling construct

let's bring in the head of u.s.ic quit strategy at bank of america merrill lynch.avita. >> thanks. >> a deal means a real deal. >> i would agree with you that kind of a partial deal, which is no new tariffs but we don't roll back any of 2018 tariffs, that's largely priced in. i would sell the news on that one. i think the market might sell off a little bit but if we get the real deal. so this is where you roll back the tariffs from 2018, which i don't think is priced into the market, that would add at least one or two percentage points of earnings growth that's not in the numbers. then you also get this huge lift from the multiple. you know what i think is really interesting is that ever since february, we've noticed that cap ex guidance has started to come down pretty dramatically, so i think all of the animal spirits that were negative for the last 12 months could flip back to positive you could see growth trends resume, et cetera. but that's predicated on the assumption that we get full deal so we get a rollback of 2018 tariffs, we get some sort of agreement and

. >> where does positioning -- how does that play into it i read a bank of america merrill lynch survey of fund managers with $5159 million under management and most preferred cash over equities the allocation to global equities at the lowest since september 2016 here we are in the markets. >> let me ask you clarify when you say prefer cash over equities on the margin or they would have a big are allocation of cash deanna they would to equities that would be kind of. >> i don't think it's a bigger allocation to cash than. >> sort on the margin a higher >> a higher cash allocation. >> than they've had in the past. >> yeah. >> my view on that is i think positioning is everything. where we were positioned andrea where groed and fear was at the end of december, we have kind much scouted the numbers over the last few weeks but we're at a place at least bears are at a lo low going back to june. bulls have certainly reasserted themselves and to be clear will also on the government shutdown i forgot to mention this earlier if you think we rallied on a possible deal how about the month of jan wh

level not seen since the financial crisis, according to the latest survey from bank of america merrill lynch are calling for a reversal in one of the hawkish trades of 2019 and that has been so far emerging markets. here is dani burger. dani: the most crowded trade always closely watched because it accurately calls what markets are about to reverse. emerging markets, 18% this month, say it is the most crowded trade. it has never actually been on the survey before so this is the first time in the service history. last month, it was the dollar at 21%. that has fallen to second-place at 17%. we have seen a big rally in the dollar. maybe it will continue, maybe it is not crowded out. coming third and fourth is faang and cash. if it is indeed e.m. most crowded, we will see investors leave, an avalanche of market could hit the market. that is because of what we have seen in the biggest e.m. etf. record inflows. this is the ticker etf from blackrock and its market cap. so for this year, about $5 billion has been added. --ket cap now at $60 million $60 billion rather. not only is this a record, but

michelle meyer, bank of america merrill lynch and neil a richardson.ousing stories come out. what is the story to you right now? nela: it is all about interest rates in the new year. buyers cannot shell off -- selloff like markets can. these rates are drawing people back into the markets. the meantime, if you are going to go rent something you will not get that sweet deal. apparently that is going away in new york good michelle: -- in new york. michelle: that is all relative. it is a regional story. new york had a bit of an excess supply. you saw more of a compression in generally speaking , when you are thinking about homebuying, it is the level of interest rates. it is not just where home prices are today, it is where people expect home prices to be tomorrow. thatee with nela near-term lower interest rates -- has become but more negative around housing. david: the housing sector dominates today's follow the lead segment where we dive into the stories making headlines in moving markets. home-building sector has outperformed, up 14% over the past month

joining us is the bloomberg opinion is to columnist and savita subramanian from bank of america merrill lynchdown right now and the free market. >> that is the breath of bad news we got. the biggest is the $50 billion under u.s.that is refrigerated brands, canadian retail, and the value of the craft oscar meyer trademarks. by oneo cut dividend third. they will look at the stretchers. with this tells me is that this is a company with real balance sheet -- look at the strictures -- vestetures. this is a company with real balance sheet problems. they are looking at practices around procurement. they will increase the cost of goods sold or 25 million. that looks to be a fairly small number, but we will see how that plays out. how do you get this so wro hot dogs? >> saying that we underperformed in our margin expectations won't be the filled, but you don't get these kind of breakdowns because of near-term underperformance. this is a major miscalculation. that gets to the heart of 3g strategy, the major investor in kraft heinz that orchestrated the merger. their underlying strategy was to do big de

haslinda: david cui from bank of america merrill lynch, head of china equity strategy.re to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: time for it check on the latest business flash headlines. the national australian bank says it's determined to do better and is taking actions to regain trust and respect. they revived did the outlook from negative to stable. comes after australia's royal commission criticized the big banks for misconduct, pointing the finger at knab for its self-assessment on governments and culture. david: let's have a look at caesars, jumping in late trade reports. billionaire carl icahn planning to push for a sale. the activist shareholder reportedly wants caesars to consider selling itself, having received approaches from at least two seat -- suitors. caesars has written almost 40% so far this year. this is bloomberg. ♪ reporter: i'm rosalind chin with first word headlines. analysts are watching for a knee-jerk reaction as indian markets suffered the worst attack in cashmere since narendra modi came to power in 2014. at least 40 security personnel were kill

we also have seen the likes of bank of america merrill lynch downgraded the stock as well.counting you down to the opening of the session in india. just under an hour away. let's go to divina, standing by in mumbai. we were talking about the tensions on the border in india and pakistan. how is that going to weigh on the market today? very negative. at least the additional drop in the early learning -- the early-morning reports shook the nifty. you have a 100 point drop in a matter of a few minutes. if you look at the rupee in the non-deliverable forward market, that saw a sharp depreciation in a matter of a few minutes. now it is somewhat stabilized at those levels. you've got pakistani officials tweeting out messages, saying the indian air force jets have andched the line of control that has caused a little bit of panic. you are going to see a reflection of that. yesterday was a positive day of trade. all the sectors did well. you are going to see pressure on the bond market yields as well, which have been slightly on if the ground. we are going to see what happens in toda

bank of america, merrill lynch cohead joining us to talk to us about the central bank moves.well as the dollar rally. rishaad: we have this call yesterday. if they were saying iron ore would hit $100 at 100 metric tons. that was a call from this man, the head of metals and mining research. he will be on the program in the next hour. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. yvonne: it is almost 10:00 a.m. in hong kong. rishaad: japan leading equities higher. and nikkei 225 near the highest in two months. bnz held its cash trade at a record low, saying the next move could be up or down. rishaad: reports say theresa may will force lawma

monetary policy and they could be cutting rates by 25 basis points according to bank of america merrill lynchwill calm is the big question. this comes of course after the modi administration delivered the interim budget aimed at listing its popularity ahead of national elections. let's go to our policy reporter. given the mood we saw in the indian bond market, this nine basis point jumping yields, a lot of investors took it well. why? >> absolutely. the bond jumped about nine basis points and the reason is the governor borrowing target is at 7.1 trillion rupees, which is fiscal year of 5.7 trillion. that comes after the government did not stick to its fiscal compared to a 3.1% fiscal target, which they had for next year. what economists are saying that even this fiscal deficit target is rather ambitious, given the alsoue targets, that they appear early, and what they need to do is cut capital expenditure, which is not good news, and cut revenue expenditures. there's a lot of skepticism among bond investors that some of these numbers are rather ambitious and that heavy lifting has to be done b

bank of america merrill lynch asked people, what is the most crowded trade?n the fund managers survey history that emerging markets going long em is the most crowded trade. think of what a stark reversal this is from last month when emerging markets was the third. huge reversal in sentiment. maybe this rally in emerging markets has gone a little too far, essentially if we see -- especially if we see strengthening with the dollar. scarlet: jay powell is speaking as well today. he leaves a trio of fed speakers, and shared his assessment earlier at mississippi state valley university. take a listen. >> today, data at the national level shows a strong economy. honorably would is near a half-century low, and economic output is going at a solid pace, but we know that prosperity has not been felt as much in some areas, including many rural places. scarlet: bloomberg economics heart someone in my awk --eone a moderate h hawk. the one with the attention to is jay powell. what do you live from him that we did not already know? >> not that much today. it is a great job.

what's risk sentiment at the moment >> looking at the merrill lynch global fund survey today cash holdingsost-crisis environment. so it seems as if people have been a little bit slow to re-enter the equity market after december so i don't know how to necessarily draw a conclusion from that, though, because to say that cash is now high relative to the post-crisis environment, you are paid for cash now most of the period it paid you zero and maybe more of an inclination. >> competition is there. >>> ylan mui with details of a buyback. >> reporter: a republican senator marco rubio out with a plan to curb buybacks which he says are not a productive use of capital. now, one of the reasons that buybacks are so popular is because they're taxed understood the capital gains rate in his proposal that would change buybacks taxed as dividends and that would have two immediate consequences one, the full amount would be taxed rather than just the gain and also those buybacks could face higher rates depending on the dividend model they choose this is just a proposal. not legislative text yet and a sense

let's bring in bank of america-merrill lynch chief european economist.or listening to mark carney with us. let me bring you to euro pound. the first time in at least 18 months. it was a little bit of buoyancy for the pound. what i markets is seeing that they are so bullish on pound? end: we could call this the . absolute fear is the possibility of -- we have no clarity as to when the actual deadline is one to be. march is still better than where we were couple of days ago. sayothing else, i would really rall -- a relief rally. haveine: i know we will votes in parliament tomorrow. is that it or could something happened by mistake? if we thought this was the end of the 29th of march cliff edge, happy days. a risk there's clearly between now and march 29 that something could go wrong. a lot of cabinet members are actually prepared to vote against the no deal brexit. the labour party is potentially behind a second referendum. tom: a little bit of chaos to say the least. this is chaos driving a to a better outcome, or is it just a misinterpretation? how do yo

and you had a good debate this week on many corners and jpmorgan and bank of america, merrill lynch,ook opposite sides of that this week what do you think? >> we think -- certainly we have seen especially we own a couple of semiconductor stocks which we have seen really recover very nicely so far this year. but i think they still have a -- would still balance a good bit if there was a satisfactory deal on the table i think, you know, yes, the market is expecting there say good chance that we see a resolution but if once one is announced, i still think you'll see a bounce. still some positive impact from that >> yeah. agreed i think, you know, a positive deal, especially if it is a little more comprehensive beyond a trade imbalance, i think the trade imbalance deal is priced into the market, getting more comprehensive maybe, a bit of an upside. >> we'll look -- try to read the tea leaves at 2:30 when the president and liu meet have a good weekend. >> thank you. >> whether we come back, kraft heinz plummeting 25% plus after disclosing the s.e.c. subpoena, missing on earnings, slashing

the call of the last ,wo decades, gary shilling formerly of merrill lynch.r yields for longer. he is right. this is "bloomberg." ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance, francine lacqua looking flashy this morning. crash,ime to talk flash swiss franc. jordan rochester with us. let me show the photograph. this is one way to look at a given spike, this is two standard deviations on euro-swissie. notice well contained trading. look at this. here is this move, weaker swiss franc, stronger euro for a cup of coffee, not even that. i do believe this is a flash crash. if not, what is it? where: it is a fat finger it seems like during the overnight markets, that is when you have low liquidity but the markets are working and do have this sort of facade of liquidity. the amount of volume you can get done with those prices is little. you probably saw one big trade selling swissie, a normal trade for london hours but outside of it tells you it was a fat finger trade. does it harm anyone? is there a so what? are trades stomped out? jordan: in essence, yes. the days when i see fat f

the markets continue to move, our own forecast from our cio office as well as bank of america, merrill lynchof this year on the s&p. if the markets continue to do well and we get 2.5% growth, will the fed kind of sit down again and say is it time to move further toward normalization? possibly. i'm not sure at that point in time that will be a real big negative for the markets, if earnings are coming through, if it looks like we're going to get a reasonable 2020, which we think we will, so there's -- as you know, it's a lot of ingredients that go into the cake. have you to sort them out to figure out the implications of any one move. >> what about the unwind of the balance sheet. it's automatic at $50 billion a month and we're hoping that we see something in the minutes that sheds light on whether or not they're going to reverse that. if they do slow down that pace, do you think that changes the dynamic in the capital markets at all? >> i don't think so. i think what the capital markets want to hear and see, it is not on auto pilot, that they have the ability depending on what the data tells