carl just refers to you as mester. loretta mester, cleveland fed president. me ask you this -- we talked back in the spring or something like that. how much has your view changed in terms of the outlook? as i recall, you had two hikes built in. still two? >> so, the june sep. >> summary of economic projections. >> of course, we've had two of them. >> hold on, president mester. looks like fed chair powell is taking a walk with christine lagarde and new bank president of japan, whose name escapes me. i can't -- i knew it but forgot it. there's jay powell with lagarde. maybe it's an opportunity to talk about what's happening in europe, too, which is -- they're sort of in a no forward guidance. everybody is coming to the end of the rate hikes, loretta. >> we're mirroring -- we've talked about this before, getting close to where we need to be, but as chair powell said in his remarks this morning, we have to be very diligent about this. we've come a long way. we don't want to be satisfied, we want to be assured it's coming down in a sustainable way and timely way.

cnbc will have full coverage of jackson hole and two first on cnbc interviews with loretta mester andgoolsbee. >>> we have the latest on the corporate stories with contessa brewer. >> we see jetblue which could raise fares by 40% according to the company's calculations that were made public in court filings this week. the companies are fighting lawsuits brought by consumers and another brought by the justice department. jetblue says fare hikes were not redacted in the filings and now taken out of context. you see shares off .30%. >>> ev factory in ohio run by gm says it will raise worker wages by 25% after lawmakers called out $16 an hour is too little. they still have to ratify the wage increase for august 28th. >>> and shares of viasat sinking after the company confirmed the communication satellite is malfunctioning in orbit. airbus along with viasa. it is -- viasat is looking to see if the satellite can be recovered. >> contessa brewer, thank you. have a great weekend. >> thank you. >>> august is black business month. time to celebrate the accomplishments of black entrepreneurs and

we will hear from patrick harker and loretta mester and austan goolsbee jay powell will speak on fridayrest rates are expected to top the agenda as well as inflation. i'm happy to say david henry is joining me good morning, david. you know, if you fast forward, not fast forward or rewind back to inflation levels at 8% or 9%, it was straight forward for the fed chair to say we are resolute to fighting inflation and bring it back to target. now with inflation at half of the levels and heading in the right direction, the message is more fine tuned. what are you looking out for here >> thank you i think you are absolutely right. a lot of ways, his speech wrote itself last year the fed had to be open to bring down inflation and clearly the world has changed. there is really good progress and bringing inflation down. i expect to see him keep the language as open as possible i think he'll probably want to try to keep the debate away from whether this september meeting is going to be a pause or whether it is another hike and really try to put the discussion a lot further down the road. i think

i saw in the promo loretta mester talk about that. they think if there is less risk if they over tighten they could pull back fast. i think ira is right. there is a risk they over tighten. if you go one more time, then it is about how long they stay there and that is little bit less difficult than when they have to keep hiking like in europe. alix: the over tightening versus we keep having to tighten and then have to wait and see. you guys had a cold model where you look at all of the speeches and you dissect in your model if it's skewed hawkish or dovish. what did your model say on friday? ira: i think the ear test suggested he was a bit more hawkish than at the july press conference. our natural language processing model showed he was more dovish. our chief economist for the u.s. agrees with that view. it was close enough to neutral and basically the same as what he said in july. it was all of the other talk around jackson hole after jay powell spoke and a lot of that was almost a full court press with the idea we are not cutting th

worms with the human gene that prevents forgetting the gene was discovered in people with hyper sy mester syndrome. the gene transfer should produce worms that can't forget. the fluorescent material indicates the name of drugs we've been injected with the gene the. now the question is whether or not these worms can forget these are straight to service. this is a very important step because we can now research this for him. it's nervous system and what characteristics they have after they've been injected with the gene. that's how we get to know how these human genes work through these. as mentioned again from the scientists hypothesis is that the gene that hinders forgetting, sends out proteins that become active in the sense of the brain. that's where the normal process of automatically forgetting is blocked. that has the consequences that all of the impressions and memories don't disappear, but are permanently saved in the brain. the researches work with 2 groups of worms, the so called and treated wild types. and the glowing ones that have been injected with g and their behavior should

. >> and then of course, you had the ancillary commentary from mester, for example, who is still a little bit hawkish. but then bullard and parker talking about maybe we have done enough. maybe it's time to let the prior hikes work their way into the economy. >> and where are we right now in terms of view of consumer spending. we got our last sort of batch of retail earnings reports last week. mixed bag to say the least. did not show great strength in terms of consumer spending on goods. but services continues to be quite strong. and you also get the credit card data, which i know you follow closely as well, which has shown at least a rise in some delinquencies and overall concern about consumer balance sheets, although on the other side, we continue to hear we still have excess savings. >> more pieces on the tape this morning about the consumer having fire power, even though i think it's diamond who suggested maybe the excess savings run out around christmas time, but you haven't even begun to move into a period where people are tapping equity on their homes or that kind of thing, which

liesman's got mester, couple others. >> mester on fridays is always bad. this is a thursday. thank heavens. kohl's had a decent quarter. >> yep. we're going to get to kohl's. interesting call on dollar general. we'll get to nvidia and analog devices this morning. also, goldman ramping up pressure on employees to come into the office five days a week like a couple other guys i know. market here, fairly steady. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. >>> goldman-sachs

even mester says it's all about risk management. are the risks now skewed to doing too much? the chairman himself says we just don't know about the lags. there could be considerable drags to come. >> i like the iceberg thing. i can see him and janet yellen on the bow of the ship. it's quite an image. i think he's been frank about that, too. last year he talked about going to create some pain. as long as we have the kind of employment numbers we have, the kind of growth numbers that appear to be manifesting themselves in this quarter, they will err on the side of quelling the inflation drag. and that's their singular focus right now. they're lucky the economy is relatively strong still. employment is at a 50-year low. the pressures on inflation are coming down. they're disinflating, but they have ajob to do, and what i get from the talk going on last year, it's a continuum. they will keep at it. loretta made it very clear in her interview. >> do you think the stronger than expected economy, the one you referenced, has thrown a wrench of sorts into the fed's plans? >> a wrench,

more coming on the fed tomorrow at 11:30 eastern time we'll be joined by cleveland fed president mester. >>> continuing later this hour, the ceo of autodesk is with us it's one of the top gainers on the s&p 500 after raising guidance >>> look at boeing announcing the 737 max deliveries may be delayed due to a defect from supplier spirit aerosystems. the worst dow component today. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. >>> i want to draw your attention to shares of dollar tree, the worst performing stock on the s&p 500 today better than expected results, but the stock falling after the company cut its guidance and spoke about pressure on profits due to inventory losses and slowing demand you'll see shares are down about 9.9% retail earni

loretta mester, she start speaking, the cleveland fed president, we came back a little bit.heard from harker and some, and for some reason this market, it's moving higher anyway. and it's really amazing because we know that the fed is still leaning to the hawkish side. so what dow to -- do you make of the way the market's acting, stock market and the bond market right now in. >> the well, for starters, you're absolutely right. lean to to the hawkish side. why? is because cop assumption and labor remain stronger than most people thought the they would bd inflation is showing itself stubborn. no where close to the 2% the fed want, so they have to lean to the hawkish side. and i think the markets is saying, well, a maybe i'll get better earnings, but that's maybe going to hurt the multiple i put on those earning, and that's why you get this back and forth. our guess is that earnings will prevail and that there'll be mediocre -- i don't think we'll get 12% earnings growth next year as the con consensus is forecasting in a slowing economy. charles: were you happy or at least it f

jackson hole with interviews with philly fed president, patrick harker and cleveland fed's lorestta mesterll ask one china watcher what's happening on the front line of the property sector as the china etf is having its worst month in more than a year from nvidia to peloton, we'll preview the retailers out of the way like lowe's and macy's and that's coming up in earnings exchange. >> as we go, let's get a check on the markets under pressure by 131 points and the s&p is higher by eight. the nasdaq is up almost 1% today and the russell is down half a percent. 434 on your ten-year. that's the number of the day. we're back after this. ♪ ♪ >>> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ wake up, gotta go! c'mon, c'mon. -gracie, c'mon. let's go! guys, c'mon! mom, c'mon! mia! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ my favorite color is... because, it's like a family thing! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ made it! mom! leave running behind, behind. the new turbocharged volkswagen atlas. does life beautifully. bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

loretta mester, jimmy bullard, neel kashkari have been saying it for months.ant to take it. i think they are concerned about inflation turning up again. we saw a tiny bit of that in the ppi, next week we could get the pce that will capture more the energy move the cpi did not capture this month. to your point i think we're going to 6%. charles: we sold off into the close yesterday after the minutes. we're selling off a little bit here today. overall what does it mean for the broad market? >> actually i think it is good. we've been talking about, i thought it was way too stretched to the upside, that it needed to pull back. so i think that is what it is doing. i don't expect it to crash. i suspect if we hit nasdaq to maybe test nine or 10%, it is already down 6% from the highs three weeks ago. the s&p down 4.4%. if that tests like 7 or 8%. as you know those are well within the normal trading range, right? a 9.9% move from the high is still considered normal t shakes the branch as little bit. the weak ones will fall out. that will be interesting because it will

cleveland fed president loretta mester with her take on the speech from jackson hole.stay with us. ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. here's why you should switch fro to duckduckgo on all your device duckduckgo comes with a built in engine like google, but it's pri and doesn't spy on your searches and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooki and creepy ads that follow you a from google and other companies. and there's no catch. it's free. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you around showing the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. >>> fed chair powell warning there could be further tightening ah

loretta mester leaning toward over tightening. rafael bostick suggested the opposite.ea of the preference, which way they would lean? michael: the majority say they would rather over tightening that under tighten. they don't want to send the economy into a recession. what if we start to see a real deterioration in the economy, they can cut rates. i don't want to see inflation go back up again so they are going to lean in the direction of higher rates. we are within 25 basis points probably of any kind of peak. does it really matter that much? not a huge amount. it is more a signal than anything else. kailey: does the data matter? jobless claims, spending. michael: pc will matter because that is what the fed follows for inflation. powell has been looking at those super core, housing. and rafael bostick was making the point that if you do that, you take out housing, you have your court running about 2.9%. you're getting into the area of what you want to say. tom: i want to go to the unspoken, the theme that the savings, the fiscal stimulus of the pandemic has worn out. i