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Aug 5, 2022
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let's go over to mike mckee. mike: this is quite a surprise. 528,000 jobs created or restored. interestingly enough, that takes us back to where we were when the pandemic started. the change in private payrolls, 471,000. manufacturing payrolls up 30,000. on employment falls to 3.5%. -- on employment falls to 3.5%. average hourly earnings is up half a percent, more than anticipated. we go back up again after falling in the previous months. labor force participation rate drops .1, 62.1%. the prior month, june, which was 372, revised up to 398. a very strong payrolls report for the month of july that belies everyone's thoughts. i would imagine you are seeing some movement in the bond market. jonathan: big moves. up 14 basis points on the two-year. 2/10s briefly -40 basis points. stocks are lower by .7% on the s&p. nasdaq 100, down by 1%. yields up, stocks down, dollars stronger. 1.0176. wow. 528. we were looking at 250. that is a big number. this is a big move tom: and the revisions. we are still waiting for that data. michael mckee, you be digesting this over the hours. would you
let's go over to mike mckee. mike: this is quite a surprise. 528,000 jobs created or restored. interestingly enough, that takes us back to where we were when the pandemic started. the change in private payrolls, 471,000. manufacturing payrolls up 30,000. on employment falls to 3.5%. -- on employment falls to 3.5%. average hourly earnings is up half a percent, more than anticipated. we go back up again after falling in the previous months. labor force participation rate drops .1, 62.1%. the...
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Aug 26, 2022
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mike mckee, pushing back against this idea of prematurely loosening policy at a time when the market s starting to price in rate cuts in 2023? mike: they have a problem with that, because obviously it works against what they are trying to do. he has not convinced them yet, because futures are still pressing in cuts in 2023. the proof is going to be in the pudding. now they have to walk the walk. and keep rates steady. jonathan: this speech will take on a different importance, i would suggest a fresh importance, when we get that economic data. right now it is a proof me moment. you agree? priya: absent -- mike: absolutely. jonathan: prove it to me once you see labor markets going the other way. mike: with all of our fed guests, the balance sheet, the head of mortgages for hfm financial says the biggest move has been in the mortgage markets today. spreads have compressed because powell did not say anything about the balance sheet and there was nothing about selling mortgages. [laughter] jonathan: can we get chairman powell back out? mike: that market is happy he did not talk about it. j
mike mckee, pushing back against this idea of prematurely loosening policy at a time when the market s starting to price in rate cuts in 2023? mike: they have a problem with that, because obviously it works against what they are trying to do. he has not convinced them yet, because futures are still pressing in cuts in 2023. the proof is going to be in the pudding. now they have to walk the walk. and keep rates steady. jonathan: this speech will take on a different importance, i would suggest a...
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Aug 4, 2022
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here is mike mckee.ike: it is the same story with the jobless claims that we have seen the last couple of weeks, a small rise. 260,000. last week, 256. that is not the revised number. the revised the number we are waiting to come up. we will see what that was. trade balance comes in lower than forecast, $79.6 billion, down from 85.5. the forecast was 80. that is another addition to second-quarter growth, which is not a bad thing. we are down 5000, decrease in the jobless claims number last week. this week, we are waiting to see where we come up with a new number in terms of what the change was. the important number here is becoming different. continuing claims from now on. if you lose a job, are you getting a job with all of these openings? we see continuing claims ris. o an increase their. re. with all the job openings we have, the fed's theory is that if you lose a job you can get another one. last week, 260 they revised it to -- 254, rather. an increase of 6000 from last week. tom: with all your years
here is mike mckee.ike: it is the same story with the jobless claims that we have seen the last couple of weeks, a small rise. 260,000. last week, 256. that is not the revised number. the revised the number we are waiting to come up. we will see what that was. trade balance comes in lower than forecast, $79.6 billion, down from 85.5. the forecast was 80. that is another addition to second-quarter growth, which is not a bad thing. we are down 5000, decrease in the jobless claims number last...
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Aug 31, 2022
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jon: let's get some perspective from mike mckee, international economics and policy correspondent. om your vantage point, where the key takeaways with the adp number? mike: the first thing you could say is they are back after taking two months off to retool their numbers. their numbers suggest the labor market is slowing down. 132,000 jobs created in august is what the adp people found in the private sector. but does that really relate to the rest of what is going on with the economy? take a look at the numbers. they produced for the prior month's -- they plied this with prior month's -- and they are still off. does this mean anything? that is hard to say. adp says you not supposed to use this as any kind of preview for what the jobs numbers should be. will wall street listen? kriti: i don't know. will wall street listen? we talked to the bnc market strategist and he said it will be the difference between 75 and 50. but what kind of affect is there? mike: the jobs report could have an effect if it is strong. the fed is likely to go 75 because they feel perhaps the market is stronger
jon: let's get some perspective from mike mckee, international economics and policy correspondent. om your vantage point, where the key takeaways with the adp number? mike: the first thing you could say is they are back after taking two months off to retool their numbers. their numbers suggest the labor market is slowing down. 132,000 jobs created in august is what the adp people found in the private sector. but does that really relate to the rest of what is going on with the economy? take a...
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Aug 25, 2022
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let's talk to mike mckee.e is the economics and porro does policy corresponded joining us from jackson hole. what do you think? michael: at wall street you see the bears today, but they don't out here you don't see the bears. i would assume at this point the fed is not going to have a measure that would encourage people to sell their assets. but they would not mind if they do, because if they cut financed desk if they tighten financial conditions, which is what they're worried about, everyone here is focused on that. the idea that wall street is tightening the fed, the question is how does powell disabuse that idea. kailey: what languages he avoiding? is it as much about what he doesn't say is what he does? michael: and always is. and the question is how do they portray the idea that they will go farther than anyone a people think because they are willing to risk recession. they don't want to say that, they will say there might be pain, unemployment might rise some. but the argument is it is low enough the eco
let's talk to mike mckee.e is the economics and porro does policy corresponded joining us from jackson hole. what do you think? michael: at wall street you see the bears today, but they don't out here you don't see the bears. i would assume at this point the fed is not going to have a measure that would encourage people to sell their assets. but they would not mind if they do, because if they cut financed desk if they tighten financial conditions, which is what they're worried about, everyone...
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Aug 10, 2022
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alix: it is a big day for mike mckee. guy: absolutely.as it is not a stake because alix cannot figure out what downshifting means that she cannot hold her drink, so let's be clear about that, as well. alix: no, but i may be able to benchpress a little bit. michael: it's good if you cannot hold your drink because liquor prices are going up. that was one of the big increases with cpi. alix: sadly, not drinking anymore, thank you come along covid. guy: thank you very much indeed. bloomberg's mike mckee. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: u.s. stocks still climbing after the cpi surprise. the nasdaq 100 up a 2.6%. abigail doolittle is tracking those moves. abigail: we have quite a rally on her hands after four days of declines of the s&p 500, but to alix's point, the s&p 500 up 2%, the nasdaq up even more. this has to do with that cooler inflation report, yields down, helping valuation concerns around tech. the vix starting to break support, suggesting the rally could have legs and helping it out is the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index climbing the
alix: it is a big day for mike mckee. guy: absolutely.as it is not a stake because alix cannot figure out what downshifting means that she cannot hold her drink, so let's be clear about that, as well. alix: no, but i may be able to benchpress a little bit. michael: it's good if you cannot hold your drink because liquor prices are going up. that was one of the big increases with cpi. alix: sadly, not drinking anymore, thank you come along covid. guy: thank you very much indeed. bloomberg's mike...
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Aug 25, 2022
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jonathan: mike mckee is out here with a cowboy hat. not serving hot drinks. in five minutes. we hear from megan green, as well. from jackson, wyoming this morning, good morning. >> this is an extended edition of bloomberg surveillance with tom
jonathan: mike mckee is out here with a cowboy hat. not serving hot drinks. in five minutes. we hear from megan green, as well. from jackson, wyoming this morning, good morning. >> this is an extended edition of bloomberg surveillance with tom
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Aug 9, 2022
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katie: joining us now is policy correspondent mike mckee. ation on the headline is 8.7% compared to 9.1% last time around. how prepared should we be for a blockbuster surprise like we got with the jobs report? mike: which direction do you want to go? it's probably not going to be a major surprise. this doesn't usually surprise in that way. there are concerns about whether or not they want to come in a than forecast. the cleveland fed does an outcast version. they come in for the month at eight .8%, which is 0.1 higher. the history of it shows the cleveland fed has come in low the cpi for most of this year. people are worried that signals a higher number. we do know that we will be down to 8.7%. we will see some slowing. a lot of that is oil prices and gasoline. we don't know yet where crude is going to go. the suspicion is it goes higher. some things like used cars, rental cars, airfares go lower. we have to wait and find out. guy: a call goes up. mike: that is significant. the fed is going to look past the headline numbers. the question is w
katie: joining us now is policy correspondent mike mckee. ation on the headline is 8.7% compared to 9.1% last time around. how prepared should we be for a blockbuster surprise like we got with the jobs report? mike: which direction do you want to go? it's probably not going to be a major surprise. this doesn't usually surprise in that way. there are concerns about whether or not they want to come in a than forecast. the cleveland fed does an outcast version. they come in for the month at eight...
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Aug 30, 2022
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mckee. what can we expect on thursday or for september? mike: two questions that are separate.day, nothing. alix: fair enough. mike: when you look at the balance sheet, it looks like not much has happened. but there are technical reasons for that. the balance sheet is about $9 trillion but it is going down. here's what is happening. on thursday, technically it is september. the caps are going to rise on roelofs to $60 billion for treasuries, $30 billion for mortgage-backed securities. double what they are right now. only $43.6 billion rolling often september. the fed will have to sell bills as well. that should mean lower use of the repo facility. here's the thing going on. maturity and settlement dates for the treasury is midmonth in the end of the month. you will see impacts on the balance sheet about the middle of september and the end of september. that is when we will start to see things -- not as much in the middle as we will toward the end. anna: there is a lot of focus on the use of bills and the way they will be used in the qt process. they were not part of that last t
mckee. what can we expect on thursday or for september? mike: two questions that are separate.day, nothing. alix: fair enough. mike: when you look at the balance sheet, it looks like not much has happened. but there are technical reasons for that. the balance sheet is about $9 trillion but it is going down. here's what is happening. on thursday, technically it is september. the caps are going to rise on roelofs to $60 billion for treasuries, $30 billion for mortgage-backed securities. double...
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Aug 3, 2022
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mike mckee pointed out that it is extremely strong. >> we had two negative quarters of gdp and recessions are considered to be a broad-based contraction in the economy. that is where the argument comes in. employment numbers and retail sales numbers are two of the big six components which are not signaling the recession. and therefore, the contraction could occur without a recession. once you look at the data we are experiencing and you see how it gets revised over time, you may discover things aren't as rosy as they currently would seem. the debate shifts to the payroll numbers and the cpi. i think the payroll numbers, the jobless rate numbers will all keep this debate and even though the economy has already contracted for two consecutive quarters. kriti: how high does the unemployment number have to get for the federal reserve. >> i think it needs to get to 4.5 percent. that is the estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. and they have to get back to that level. that is why you have bullard, powell, and that is their internal assumption. and therefore you have two see the labor mar
mike mckee pointed out that it is extremely strong. >> we had two negative quarters of gdp and recessions are considered to be a broad-based contraction in the economy. that is where the argument comes in. employment numbers and retail sales numbers are two of the big six components which are not signaling the recession. and therefore, the contraction could occur without a recession. once you look at the data we are experiencing and you see how it gets revised over time, you may discover...
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Aug 19, 2022
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mike mckee joins us. the one and only vincent as well with us. any sign the market is beginning to fear the fed? michael: it is a combination. some of the talk from the ecb and the fed was piling on. i am in the opposite camp. i am not afraid of an institution that cannot get a forecast right. of an institution that has been wrong for the past 25 years. [laughter] when i was trading, they said goldman sachs was selling. thank you. i don't think you can look at this fed with credibility from the transient on. yesterday, looking for 75, in the neighborhood of 325 for the upper band of the target. you're not giving monetary policy an opportunity to work the market, which we are starting to see in terms of home sales and prices and other metrics where things have turned lower. they are not stopping at any red lights. they are a little too aggressive for me. after september the data will prove they have been too aggressive. alix: vincent isn't paying attention to the fed. he doesn't care. powell will not like people like vince. they need to make a mar
mike mckee joins us. the one and only vincent as well with us. any sign the market is beginning to fear the fed? michael: it is a combination. some of the talk from the ecb and the fed was piling on. i am in the opposite camp. i am not afraid of an institution that cannot get a forecast right. of an institution that has been wrong for the past 25 years. [laughter] when i was trading, they said goldman sachs was selling. thank you. i don't think you can look at this fed with credibility from the...
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Aug 24, 2022
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i have seen mike mckee in a cowboy hat. that tells you how close we are to jackson hole.o be honest, it makes you feel good. kailey: was there a bolo tie involved as well? guy: i did not see that. but i imagine tom keene would be rocking one of those later on this week. this is the narrative we are going to be watching out for. federal reserve bank of minneapolis, continues to beat the drum for monetary policy. he spoke yesterday at the gathering. >> i am in the mode of leave the air on making sure we are getting inflation down and only relax when we see compelling evidence that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%. guy: the dollar continues to push higher. sing fresh 20 year lows on the escalating energy crisis. where does the buck start? which he is tucked up nicely in surrey hill. let's start with you. you must have seen the disadvantages of the dollar over the last few months. >> i was over there ruing the weakness of the pound just because my purchasing power is that much weaker. every time i have to go to the grocery store. you understand why the dollar has
i have seen mike mckee in a cowboy hat. that tells you how close we are to jackson hole.o be honest, it makes you feel good. kailey: was there a bolo tie involved as well? guy: i did not see that. but i imagine tom keene would be rocking one of those later on this week. this is the narrative we are going to be watching out for. federal reserve bank of minneapolis, continues to beat the drum for monetary policy. he spoke yesterday at the gathering. >> i am in the mode of leave the air on...
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Aug 22, 2022
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mike mckee joins us and kenny joins us. our question, i will start with you, mike, is the main event friday? mike: the main event is friday. i am in favor of a one-day work week. i don't think i will get it. we are heading out to jackson hole. it is friday morning that the market will be pointing to. everything that happens between now and then will feed into the narrative of what does jay powell say. tomorrow, we get the pmi's. europe will be invested in those. it is not something that will make a big difference in u.s. markets. friday, we get the pce numbers. income spending and the fed's favorite inflation indicator. it comes down to what is jay powell going to say? i don't think he will give the markets a lot of direction but it will be the most watched jackson hole in quite some time. kailey: katie, to turn this question to you as to whether we need to be here, this morning, i would have said maybe not. i'm looking at the price action now, serious strength for the daughter -- dollar. serious weakness for equities. it lo
mike mckee joins us and kenny joins us. our question, i will start with you, mike, is the main event friday? mike: the main event is friday. i am in favor of a one-day work week. i don't think i will get it. we are heading out to jackson hole. it is friday morning that the market will be pointing to. everything that happens between now and then will feed into the narrative of what does jay powell say. tomorrow, we get the pmi's. europe will be invested in those. it is not something that will...
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Aug 26, 2022
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mike mckee sitting down with loretta mester. we would like to welcome our viewers and listeners worldwide to bloomberg as jay powell's speech this morning, as guy mentioned, a very short speech. eight minutes 38 seconds. it was six pages long. his previous speeches have been 15, 16 pages long. in a very direct message -- stayed the course. we want to welcome cleveland fed president loretta mester. you were in the room. did he give, from your perspective, the way you look at markets, that he give the message that you felt needed to be given? loretta: i think there was a very strong message, and i'm certainly allying with that. this is not a sure campaign. it is going to take time and more fed attention to get inflation on a trajectory down to our 2% goal. we are all in and we are going to be resolute. i thought the passage was strong and right. mike: from your point of view what does that mean? loretta: resolute means this is not a quick fix. you're going to have to bring rates up and continue doing that until we see compelling ev
mike mckee sitting down with loretta mester. we would like to welcome our viewers and listeners worldwide to bloomberg as jay powell's speech this morning, as guy mentioned, a very short speech. eight minutes 38 seconds. it was six pages long. his previous speeches have been 15, 16 pages long. in a very direct message -- stayed the course. we want to welcome cleveland fed president loretta mester. you were in the room. did he give, from your perspective, the way you look at markets, that he...
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Aug 17, 2022
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international economics and policy correspondent mike mckee over in new york. andrea also joining us in london. i will start with her. i'm confused. the consumer is holding up. there are headwinds after headwinds battering the consumer, yet here we are. andrea: you are the only one. across the earnings season we have been getting clues that the consumer is feeling distressed. we are also seeing slightly at the income sale. we were talking about wealthy families shopping in walmart. gasoline is coming down slightly, inflation is easy. they have also talked about the indicators of the winter holiday have been encouraging. sonali: mike, we have you down in d.c. how is the fed likely to look at what is happening? is a good news or bad news given that some flat news is not a bad thing when they are tightening? mike: it suggests the consumer is hanging in there. the mix of what was bought and where it was bought is discouraging in the sense that all most all of the retail sales came in nonstore retailers, which is essentially due to amazon's prime day. when you adjus
international economics and policy correspondent mike mckee over in new york. andrea also joining us in london. i will start with her. i'm confused. the consumer is holding up. there are headwinds after headwinds battering the consumer, yet here we are. andrea: you are the only one. across the earnings season we have been getting clues that the consumer is feeling distressed. we are also seeing slightly at the income sale. we were talking about wealthy families shopping in walmart. gasoline is...
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Aug 4, 2022
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let's bring in the national correspondent mike mckee to address the issue of toast and markets ashworthafter what we heard today, is europe toast? >> well, supposed to pick up on the bank of england. the forecasts they pulled out are utter rubbish because they have no facility to factor in what government policy is going to be which all of a sudden is very symmetry and don't think there will be any recession in the k. and certainly not this year and all the forecasts they're putting out there are basically useless. which is about inflation. and i actually think the chances of gas and oil prices are more likely to the downside we're seeing. europe has been a real problem, however, which they can't get out of and it's incredibly poor news there and last time we spoke on the radio, we asked our economist if there was any good news at all and she said there aren't any fires. then five minutes later you hear of the volcano in iceland? i don't see much help economywise. kailey: you listed fiscal policy and the lead for the race might want to cut taxes and the b.o.e. will have to be more aggre
let's bring in the national correspondent mike mckee to address the issue of toast and markets ashworthafter what we heard today, is europe toast? >> well, supposed to pick up on the bank of england. the forecasts they pulled out are utter rubbish because they have no facility to factor in what government policy is going to be which all of a sudden is very symmetry and don't think there will be any recession in the k. and certainly not this year and all the forecasts they're putting out...
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Aug 24, 2022
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kriti: joining us for more is bloomberg international correspondent mike mckee who sadly joins us without his cowboy hat. thank you always for joining us. let's talk about the expectations baked into the market ahead of jackson hole. it feels like the market is expecting such a hawkish tone. does that mean chairman powell is settled -- is settled to --? michael: you can say the markets are set up to fail. there are people who are disappointed and people who felt he gave the message they want to do here. there are two camps, those who think inflation is out of control and the firm -- and the fed needs to be firm at hawkish. and then others who think the fed needs to back off and be careful in how much it raises interest rates. jay powell is probably going to disappoint both groups. he will probably go back to what they have been saying for some months which is we're going to be firm and vigilant on inflation. we are going to raise rates to a restricted level and that we are going to leave them there for a while until we are sure inflation started to come down. what you just heard was, do w
kriti: joining us for more is bloomberg international correspondent mike mckee who sadly joins us without his cowboy hat. thank you always for joining us. let's talk about the expectations baked into the market ahead of jackson hole. it feels like the market is expecting such a hawkish tone. does that mean chairman powell is settled -- is settled to --? michael: you can say the markets are set up to fail. there are people who are disappointed and people who felt he gave the message they want to...
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Aug 31, 2022
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jonathan: mike mckee, thank you. looking for something around 300 k on friday.when the public hears this message, higher unemployment is a price worth paying. tom: i feel the public does not buy it for a second. they are looking at the people and saying, are you nuts? jonathan: that is why it is more controversial when we see these numbers. i go back to the comments from senator warren. she will not be alone. tom: help me with united kingdom. sorry, i am making jokes about autumnal bliss. it is getting colder for a homeless population. jonathan: energy is top of mind for everybody in europe right now. lisa: going back to the labor market and this idea of pain. a soft landing scenario. if you take away some openings, you will not get layoffs, you'll just get this there on a soft landing. we all hope that is the case. jonathan: futures up one third of 1% on the s&p. yields up a couple of basis points. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile.
jonathan: mike mckee, thank you. looking for something around 300 k on friday.when the public hears this message, higher unemployment is a price worth paying. tom: i feel the public does not buy it for a second. they are looking at the people and saying, are you nuts? jonathan: that is why it is more controversial when we see these numbers. i go back to the comments from senator warren. she will not be alone. tom: help me with united kingdom. sorry, i am making jokes about autumnal bliss. it is...
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Aug 11, 2022
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let's bring in mike mckee to talk about this morning. surprise ppi numbers. the horse before the cart on that one, but what is the right read here? how should we be taking these numbers? how significant are they? mike: they are going in the right direction, they are what the fed wants to see. they are what the biden administration wants to see, but they are only one month. yesterday after cpi people motioned that one swallow does not make a summer. how about three? you have cpi, ppi, and low employment rate. if that is the case and it continues that would be good news. it raises the possibility that we could see a soft landing. but the question is, what does it mean for the fed? probably nothing at this point, because they are want to see more data before they make any decisions. alix: can you get into this data in terms of where we saw the biggest -- [inaudible] mike: it is not that much different than what we saw in the cpi. wrestling prices are down 7.8% in ppi, and food prices are up 1.8%, which is more than we saw in cpi. we are still seeing some of the
let's bring in mike mckee to talk about this morning. surprise ppi numbers. the horse before the cart on that one, but what is the right read here? how should we be taking these numbers? how significant are they? mike: they are going in the right direction, they are what the fed wants to see. they are what the biden administration wants to see, but they are only one month. yesterday after cpi people motioned that one swallow does not make a summer. how about three? you have cpi, ppi, and low...
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Aug 29, 2022
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tom: the shock at the speech -- mike mckee saved me. he said i think the speech will end soon. we were making jokes about pivot the dog, the new puppy at the kansas city fed. this is one giant anti-pivot. jonathan: one priority -- get inflation down. and if we are willing to accept a recession. they are willing to accept a recession, not just a federal reserve but also the ecb. even if we enter a recession, we have basically little choice, which will continue our normalization path. tom: we start the show for all americans -- ferro is not demanding we look at the ecb. the fact is we all must look at the ecb. you see it with pound sterling will under 1.17. pound sterling is at post-brexit weakness. jonathan: euro-dollar just about holding on. we need to talk about the prospect of qt, perhaps 75 basis points move in september. lisa: the lack of addict ability in the fed meeting here there was a paper presented talking about the unwind of the balance sheet and how it could potentially lead to a lack of liquidity that was really concerning. how do you game out how this will play ou
tom: the shock at the speech -- mike mckee saved me. he said i think the speech will end soon. we were making jokes about pivot the dog, the new puppy at the kansas city fed. this is one giant anti-pivot. jonathan: one priority -- get inflation down. and if we are willing to accept a recession. they are willing to accept a recession, not just a federal reserve but also the ecb. even if we enter a recession, we have basically little choice, which will continue our normalization path. tom: we...
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Aug 24, 2022
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jonathan: i'm sure mike mckee was there. tom: i comes this.did a great package where he went around jackson hole with tourists and if they had ever heard of chairman ben bernanke. tom: for those of you on radio, it is a glare -- a bear in a glass cage dead and bernanke was reported to be alive. you are right about the bear danger, it is not funny. jonathan: lisa thinks we are ridiculous. lisa is going hiking. tom: the grizzlies are like moose. when you see them the first time, it is not disney. it is not disneyland. speaking of disneyland, annmarie hordern is in washington. [laughter] lisa: did she run awry -- runaway? tom: the never never land of washington. cut to the chase, the democrats are doing better. is it just because of the roe v. wade bait or is something else going on? annmarie: a lot of mickey mouse. when you look at the races overnight and you talk about democrats doing better and maybe roe v. wade, you have to look at this 19th congressional district in new york which pat ryan -- tom: above the hudson river. annmarie: pat ryan w
jonathan: i'm sure mike mckee was there. tom: i comes this.did a great package where he went around jackson hole with tourists and if they had ever heard of chairman ben bernanke. tom: for those of you on radio, it is a glare -- a bear in a glass cage dead and bernanke was reported to be alive. you are right about the bear danger, it is not funny. jonathan: lisa thinks we are ridiculous. lisa is going hiking. tom: the grizzlies are like moose. when you see them the first time, it is not disney....
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Aug 17, 2022
08/22
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mike mckee, alongside of us, making it even better. the yield is up on a 10 year. equity is down 7/10 on the s&p 500. and it will be brilliant. looking forward to that, and injustice moment, we are down in d.c.. in new york, this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date on news from around the world, the first word news. the ukrainian president has warned civilians to stay away from facilities occupied by russian forces. that followed explosions get an ammo dump, and an advisor said that the blast marked the beginning of a series of attacks last week. it destroyed fighter jets. in the u.k., inflation jumped more than expected to the highest level in his. the consumer price index rose in july from a year ago. it followed a 9.4% gain in june. that will put pressure on the british government and on the bank of england to take action. germany struggles with natural gas. that is according to the country's energy regulator which says that germany will have enough -- -- gas if they cut off supplies complete. the country is racing to fulfill stockpiles after russia reduced
mike mckee, alongside of us, making it even better. the yield is up on a 10 year. equity is down 7/10 on the s&p 500. and it will be brilliant. looking forward to that, and injustice moment, we are down in d.c.. in new york, this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date on news from around the world, the first word news. the ukrainian president has warned civilians to stay away from facilities occupied by russian forces. that followed explosions get an ammo dump, and an advisor said...
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Aug 10, 2022
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mike mckee will be with us in 15 minutes to go into everything.sting point, david stubbs of jp morgan, take out, energy, this new shelter inflation we have got, and where do services stand? lisa: how much will that be the source? the pivot away from goods to services, how much of that has been curtailed by lack of confidence? people are talking about a sudden about base from what the fed projection will be. there is a lot of time between now and september, jackson hole, a lot of data that could confirm or rebut what we get. tom: we have to remember so many of these series still shows whatever listeners and viewers feel, higher inflation. let's be clear, it has not turned around. lisa: why we are looking at real wages and going more negative. as we look at this report, what are you most focus on to give us a compass on how to frame the data, the better response? kailey: i think it will be about the core metric, how sticky this is. on the one hand, it would be significant to see price growth moderate, but prices will still climb. the fed would still
mike mckee will be with us in 15 minutes to go into everything.sting point, david stubbs of jp morgan, take out, energy, this new shelter inflation we have got, and where do services stand? lisa: how much will that be the source? the pivot away from goods to services, how much of that has been curtailed by lack of confidence? people are talking about a sudden about base from what the fed projection will be. there is a lot of time between now and september, jackson hole, a lot of data that could...
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Aug 16, 2022
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some mortgage applications data, then mike mckee is going to break down details for us. the chief economist in ernst & young, we are thrilled he could join us. one of the great debates we are having here is the optimism seen out of part of jp morgan this morning on inflation coming down faster. that buttresses up against your good analysis of a rescission or lack thereof. consistent, profound, and pervasive. is our inflation present state, prophetic -- persistent, profound, and invasive? >> we were just talking about the housing slowdown. i don't think we're in that type of environment. they are generally still healthy in terms of wealth levels, in terms of leverage at 20 year lows. those are good conditions entering this type of environment where there will be a slowdown by interest rate-sensitive sectors. that is what the fed intends to do. the housing sector alone is not enough. it wants the broader indicators and hopes that inflation follows suit. the key theme on the inflation front is going to be that headline inflation and core inflation. core inflation is likely
some mortgage applications data, then mike mckee is going to break down details for us. the chief economist in ernst & young, we are thrilled he could join us. one of the great debates we are having here is the optimism seen out of part of jp morgan this morning on inflation coming down faster. that buttresses up against your good analysis of a rescission or lack thereof. consistent, profound, and pervasive. is our inflation present state, prophetic -- persistent, profound, and invasive?...
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Aug 18, 2022
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jobless claims figures, mike mckee.50,000 for the week last week. that is significantly lower then the initial 262,000. we are waiting for revisions to come in. continuing claims, 1,437,000, that is a little gain of 900,000 more than last month. it suggests we are not seeing people who lose their jobs staying unemployed for long. you are able to get off the unemployment rolls very quickly. philadelphia fed comes in at 6.2. last month, it was at -12.3. we had earlier, the empire index and a major collapse there at down 42 points. the philadelphia fed changes the other direction and goes positive. philadelphia fed new orders index is at negative five, compared to -24.8. that is an improvement, even if it is still showing a little contraction. the other thing about the philly fed, prices paid is jumping around on my screen here. prices paid is 43.6 versus 54.2. prices paid came down significantly. another signal that may be inflation is backing off a little bit and we will have to see how this translates to the ism the wee
jobless claims figures, mike mckee.50,000 for the week last week. that is significantly lower then the initial 262,000. we are waiting for revisions to come in. continuing claims, 1,437,000, that is a little gain of 900,000 more than last month. it suggests we are not seeing people who lose their jobs staying unemployed for long. you are able to get off the unemployment rolls very quickly. philadelphia fed comes in at 6.2. last month, it was at -12.3. we had earlier, the empire index and a...
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Aug 9, 2022
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we will get it with mike mckee as well.ve heard from so many guests, core is what we will look at. kailey: 8:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow, a little less than 26 hours. that's what the market has waited for. tom: another chance for the red sox to lose. probably what will happen. futures negative seven. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with his rather world with the first word, i'm gupta. donald trump saying he's being mistreated by democrats who don't want to run for president, after federal investigators searched his home in mar-a-lago as part of an investigation into whether he took documents from the white house when he left office. he was in new york during the search. the u.s. is already in the recession and the fed will have to start weakening next year according to this guest. >> we believe we are in a recession, two quarters of gdp decline is the beginning of the definition. three consecutive months of declines in leading indicators, which we have now, would suggest the
we will get it with mike mckee as well.ve heard from so many guests, core is what we will look at. kailey: 8:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow, a little less than 26 hours. that's what the market has waited for. tom: another chance for the red sox to lose. probably what will happen. futures negative seven. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with his rather world with the first word, i'm gupta. donald trump saying he's being mistreated by democrats who...
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Aug 17, 2022
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mike is. cheryl >> mckee cheryl, new jersey go down the list. she will be dismissed as she was just a nancy pelosi trojan a horse or something, but it's not true. she is someone who i think stands must more firmly on principle than most of her colleagues do. >> what about harriet hageman? i think it's -- harriet hageman was a never trumper in 2016, this is somebody who didn't support the president has come around full circle. for the people of wyoming, that appears to be enough. i don't want to say it's a fait accompli, but it appears that she will be the nominee. >> for donald trump it's enough. donald trump once fealty, the whole party needs to be bowing to him. look, she will hardly be alone among republicans in our caucus who had no use for donald trump in 2016 and even's latest 2018. they spoke quite disparagingly of him, and i didn't talk to her, but look this is something we've seen a lot of. >> you talk about the republicans who speak disparaging of trump, and you basically wrote a book about the fecklessness of some of the elected membe
mike is. cheryl >> mckee cheryl, new jersey go down the list. she will be dismissed as she was just a nancy pelosi trojan a horse or something, but it's not true. she is someone who i think stands must more firmly on principle than most of her colleagues do. >> what about harriet hageman? i think it's -- harriet hageman was a never trumper in 2016, this is somebody who didn't support the president has come around full circle. for the people of wyoming, that appears to be enough. i...
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Aug 10, 2022
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mckee, important day for cpi. more important for us because it is your birthday. mike: thank you. my age keeps inflating. ter] caroline: inflation all around. michael mckee, what a legend. we thank him for staying late on his birthday. let's look at the market impact with the macro man. cameron, you have great notes today to put this into context. the market reaction was pretty obvious and so was the reading overall. but what -- jay powell cannot get enthusiastic yet. is this compelling evidence of the moderation in inflation? cameron: no, because it is only one data point. we do not know what the future holds. from a statistical perspective, you need more than one observation to render definitive or compelling judgment. if you want to look on the sour side of things, the fed meeting cpi, which lines up every piece of stuff and ranks them from the top to the bottom, that reached a new high. 6.2% year on year, albeit receding from 0.27%. that is above what anyone would consider to be price stability or where the fed needs inflation to go. jon: as we continue to chew on these data points, i saw you writing
mckee, important day for cpi. more important for us because it is your birthday. mike: thank you. my age keeps inflating. ter] caroline: inflation all around. michael mckee, what a legend. we thank him for staying late on his birthday. let's look at the market impact with the macro man. cameron, you have great notes today to put this into context. the market reaction was pretty obvious and so was the reading overall. but what -- jay powell cannot get enthusiastic yet. is this compelling...
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Aug 2, 2022
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bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee is here in the newsroom. mike, fewer job openings. what does that signal? mike: it suggests one of two things. companies are no longer trying to hire because they think there will be a slowdown, or they have hired a lot more people. but it does not look like the hiring has taken place at the same level. it does suggest that we may be are slowing down. this all revolves around something called the beverage curve, which is represented here. the number of job openings rises as unemployment goes down. there is a big fight now between larry summers and chris waller of the federal reserve board, who are arguing over how far unemployment will have to rise to bring down these job vacancy numbers. summers says 5.5%, and the two have been trading accusations of shoddy math and it has captivated the market at this point. it does suggest at this point that we have a lot of slack in the labor market. the fed would say it is very tight because there are a lot of openings, but there are not people to fill them. guy: mike, mary d
bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee is here in the newsroom. mike, fewer job openings. what does that signal? mike: it suggests one of two things. companies are no longer trying to hire because they think there will be a slowdown, or they have hired a lot more people. but it does not look like the hiring has taken place at the same level. it does suggest that we may be are slowing down. this all revolves around something called the beverage curve, which is...
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Aug 9, 2022
08/22
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mike, you're already tracking a few incidents. >> yeah, they're smaller so that's the good news. this one over here, 680 at mckeeand that took a light pull-out. no major injuries and that pole has been cleared from the freeway, the most important part for the south bay slowing. slowing 101 southbound, right by the airport. usually that's just a slower-moving crew, crews moving around from overnight work, just like this crew will be leaving shortly from niles canyon, 238 connector mission boulevard and 680. no major issues through the caldecott. there's one other crash a small one at 24 just off of highway 4 and that looks like it's cleared from the roadway, no slowing at the scene. back to you. >> thank you, mike. >>> only on nbc bay area, a south bay family is talking about the recent death of a loved one police say died after someone set his car on fire. family members say 47-year-old michael delgado was homeless and living in his car for the past two years. july 31st, firefighters responded to a car fire in the alma neighborhood and found his body inside. his daughter still can't accept what happened. >> it's
mike, you're already tracking a few incidents. >> yeah, they're smaller so that's the good news. this one over here, 680 at mckeeand that took a light pull-out. no major injuries and that pole has been cleared from the freeway, the most important part for the south bay slowing. slowing 101 southbound, right by the airport. usually that's just a slower-moving crew, crews moving around from overnight work, just like this crew will be leaving shortly from niles canyon, 238 connector mission...
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Aug 25, 2022
08/22
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mckee in the southbound side. it's in the fast lane, so it's a distraction. back to you. >> thanks, mike.ning now, the city college of san francisco will vote today to observe the lunar new year as a school holiday. that vote happening during the board of trustees meeting at 3:30 this afternoon. lunar new year is one of the most important celebrations of the year among east and southeast asian cultures. this year the lunar new year began on february 1st. >> improving our climate in crisis. ahead on "today in the bay," the household item you can easily replace to help reduce harmful waste. >>> at 6:00, more eyes on the road and on you. dozens of new license plate readers, why police are calling it a success and the response to now let's turn to our climate in crisis this morning. meteorologist vianey arana shows us one simple hack we can do to reduce harmful waste and keep it from endtion up in our waterways. >> whether you're washing those dirty dishes by hand at home or you're choosing to pop them in the dishwasher, have you ever thought about how the packaging that your soap comes in im
mckee in the southbound side. it's in the fast lane, so it's a distraction. back to you. >> thanks, mike.ning now, the city college of san francisco will vote today to observe the lunar new year as a school holiday. that vote happening during the board of trustees meeting at 3:30 this afternoon. lunar new year is one of the most important celebrations of the year among east and southeast asian cultures. this year the lunar new year began on february 1st. >> improving our climate in...