let's sends it over to mike santoli. >> every which way but loose reference to a clint eastwood movie. this is the only one that co-standard an orangutan this is a very long term chart unemployment claims, four week moving verage. always kind of perks up as we say hide of a recession. right now what we've seen it's flat lined at historical loss. right now not giving you a signal perhaps it's bottoming not been a very define uptrend in claims so therefore not a rise in layoffs or anything like that we can define. look at the shorter term chart just to get a look at how that bottoming process is appearing and, you know, you have to look right here obviously very low print right in the turn of last year is that an uptrend is that starting to base and go

let's send it over to mike santoli now for his third dashboard of the day mike, what do you have >> calling this one, oh, flow, you don't. fund floes out of equity funds getting a lot of attention "wall street journal" had a look at that today, as if retail investors are somehow boycotting the big record stock rally this is ned davis' research's rendering of the data. into or out of equity funds, it's been basically negative for most of the last two years the exception was this real rush in in that really exuberant peak we saw in january of 2018. obviously, this is last december when there was genuine flight out of equity funds. i don't really view these smaller net outflows to be that much of a story about retail investors hating stocks. a couple of things you have to keep in mind right up here, this is about 1% of assets on the way out of equity funds equity funds are up more than 20% in value this year so it's a rebalancing effect, because of demographics and because of basically people keeping a portfolio spread among different assets, stocks, bonds, and cash that you're seeing a steady

. >> all right mike santoli, thank you. a rising trend among private companies, meantime, is allowing employees and early investors to catch in before going public kate rooney is back at headquarters with more on this >> start-up employees can always wait a decade for their company to ipo they need to buy a house or pay tuition, so they're turning to secondary markets. through a broker or pre-ipo platforms like sharespost, they can find venture capital buyers who want a stake in their start-up analysts say this market is maturing as vc money eliminates the need to go public. secondary markets climb to $50 billion through the end of this year, to $35 billion in 2018 there are some downsized, though these markets are pretty opaque, so you don't actually know how many shares are out there, making it harder to get a fair value. common shares held by employees are often not worth the same as preferred shares that investors have it's usually a 10 to 20% discount and of course, transfer restrictions companies have the right to com

bob pisani is tracking the market reacshown and mike santoli is looking at apple and where wall street stands on the name we'll kick it off with kayla tausche. get us up to speed what we know. we know this is a moving target. >> reporter: three sources close to talks are confirming there's a deal in principle between u.s. and chinese negotiators that the u.s. officials are expected to bring to president trump this afternoon during a meeting between all of these principals and discuss next steps one much these sources tells me president trump has been focused on the agricultural purchase number and wanted china to make a bigger commitment. that commitment had been around $40 billion in u.s. products and he wanted it closer to $50 billion. highest ever total that china had purchased in a given year was $26 billion. certainly that's a number to watch in terms of any announcement that we get from here another thing that's important about what's happening now is that whatever gets agreed between the u.s. and china at this stage is expected to be signed it's not just expected to be a negotia

mike santoli has a third dashboard of the day mike >> contessa, ask me right now if the market is stackinge? basically putting a few of the biggest guys up-front to try to make some progress here. look at this chart pretty long-term of the percentage of the s&p 500 accounted for by just the biggest ten holdings so the ten largest companies in the s&p, what percentage of the overall index did they represent? right now, it's about 24%. pretty much at its peak since about 1999 and 2000 when you did have this megacap leadership, the very largest companies in tech, especially were much larger than the rest of the market during the height of f.a.a.n.g. mania in 2015, '16, '17, people would say, it's only four or five stocks. that really wasn't the case. and i was sort of very skeptical of this idea that the market was getting too concentrated the real reason to worry about this is if other stocks below the surface are not participating at all that's not necessarily the case. this chart looks at the equal-weighted version of the s&p against the regular one. you can see that the regular s&p has ce

thank you. >> see you then. >> let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. mike >> morgan, going to follow wilf's lead right there with our first installment here it is a bank run, but the good kind of run in bank stocks we'll put some numbers on that and is everybody in the pool that's a question here as we see this sort of risk on tone to the overall capital markets. fix it yourself. that's one company in particular showing exactly how it could essentially help its own shareholder returns by acting on its own. and then, alternate futures. a look at the growth outlook for 2020 by a couple of different means. a bank run take a look at this ratio of the u.s. bank index against the s&p 500. this is the bkx divided by the s&p 500 over two years what a lot of folks are pointing out here is you had a pretty solid downtrend line that has broken you have this continuation higher, it's not really been the leadership group in the last few weeks, but people are basically placing a lot of weight on the fact that this does seem to be a trend reversal if we went all the w

beyond fast. >>> welcome back to the closing bell let's accepted it over to mike santoli. ard of the day hi, mike. >> we have to hold the bonds, specifically corporate bonds i like to spotlight just the strength in the corporate credit market as an underpinning of what's going on in equities. bbb corporate bonds, the lowest amount before they get to junk bonds. yields were popping up towards 5% really sold off hard people thought it was perhaps the next disaster in the making if you got a lot of downgrades in the credit ratings. look where we are. somewhere around 3.2%. the u.s. government about two years ago was borrowing at 3%. right now you have low investment grade borrowing at that level whatever else you want to say about equity values, this is underwriting the valuations at these levels because it's part of the corporate security spectrum this is showing both the fed on hold and people not thinking that we're necessarily close to a recession. if that changes, obviously it will up end the valuation story. that could change in part by the corporate yields spreads going

let's begin with mike santoli.eat to end the day, the year, the decade on a positive note, but it's really been an amazing year for investors. >> and one really, relief, i think, at the start of the year, that the bad economic scenario, maybe we're getting priced in at the end of 2019 did not come to pass and then what we got was federal reserve cutting rates three times, without really much cost in terms of economic growth. so basically, financial conditions got much more accommodating and loser. at the same time, profit margins basically held flat at record levels and the u.s. consumer did fine so i do think all of that together meant, you know, bull market acting like a bull market and we expanded valuations, because it seemed like a recession was not anywhere close and credit markets have been really underwriting this entire move >> barry, in the short-term, you think this positivity can continue >> i do. there's three tailwinds. we have this tendency to get to the end of the year and think, okay, well, what ha

mike santoli is kicking off his market dashboard with a look at google's c sweep changes kayla, first to you on trade. >> morgan,what a difference between today and yesterday. exemplary of how quickly the outlook on trade can change. yesterday president trump was pessimistic about a pre-election deal today everything is fine stopped providing readouts of calls between principles secretary of agriculture sonny purdue said it remains to be seen whether the two side also hold a call before the deadline. china has been buying soy beans from argentina instead of the u.s. and tariffs on those countries are a result of that soy bean suppliers and signing a bill backing hong kong demonstrators, lawmakers want an audit of china's business scoring system that may penalize u.s. companies doing business there. all of this is ramping up pressure to try to get china to cave by the 15th, wilf we'll see how this all shakes out. >> kayla, we certainly will. otherwise the market reacting positively today up .8% two days away from friday's key job number one metric out this morning raised red flags stev

mike santoli heads to the telestrator with a look at the key trend lines to watch >>> and take a look at our data tracker. the ism manufacturing index missing estimates in november with a reading of 48.1 construction spending also missing the mark falling 0.48% in october following a rise of half a%. "closing bell" is back right after this break whether you're out here on lte. or here on a wifi hotspot. xfinity mobile has more coverage to keep you connected to what matters most. that's because it's the only wireless network that automatically connects you to millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. and now get $250 off when you buy a new samsung phone during xfinity mobile beyond black friday. plus, you can save up to $400 a year. click, call or visit a store today. >>> welcome back to "closing bell." we have 43 minutes left to go until the "closing bell. the dow is off 0.75% the nasdaq has declined more than a percentage point. >> let's check in on the markets. very quickly, down 4%, as contessa just said some individual market movers. take a look at f.a.a.n

our mike santoli is taking a look at that, where sentiment is for the new year, mike >> yeah, scott, it's a little elevated as we might expect from the one-way rally up through december, from august, where you got people caught too defensive and too pessimistic, that's been turned around. i would very much emphasize this is a short-term, tactical atmospheric condition that you have to be aware of. kind of a cross segment are showing extremes i would say highest since january 2018, but not up to the levels of january 2018 is how i would characterize them. that creates a backdrop that maybe you're susceptible to a shakeout on the news flow. we have seen a tendency over the last couple of decades to have a minor gut check in january that being said, i don't think there's anything really in the broader trend to suggest that this would be a major peak, especially corporate credit conditions remain amazingly strong so watch in the early part of 2020, how the bond market absorbs what is going to be a rush of new corporate issuance, where there has been a rush, and a new one, that's going to

don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. >>> let's send it over to mike santolid of the day with not an obvious theme at all, mike >> well, it's obvious to some. i tried to do honors to the day. obviously, taylor swift's song and the occasion of her birthday, which is not a national holiday yet >> next year >> we forgot to make this loud and clear. happy birthday we just discussed the story and we should have said happy birthday >> she wasn't probably watching. >> maybe she likes "closing bel bell". >> well, wildest dreams, investors are kind of living them a lot of weeks we take a look at this indicator, bank of america puts out this bull/bear indicator. it's a composite, lots of different factors maintain to gauge the risk appetite and mood of investors and what you see here, it's at an 18-month high, which doesn't say that much, because it has not gotten to much bullish extremes over the last year and a half people are getting a little more comfortable or speculative a lot of folks are talking about how the finish to this year, talking about how this meltoff o

back downtown to you. >> mighty mice that was a good one. >> you got it. >> we'll send it over to mike santoli. hi, mike >> stifel upgraded alphabet at the same time analysts upgraded facebook to a buy. are there too many likes among analysts for this stock right now? here's the breakdown, buy, sell, holds. it's pretty well loved you have more than 80% buys right here not too surprising for a big bellwether with great financials the. this is the time to think wall street was too negative earlier this year. the stock price was well one -- mid-100s that got you to move to what we see now. this is the gap between average price target and the stock pretty reasonable. the this isn't giving you too much of a skew or too lop side but a well-liked stock based on how it was valued you'll like it now because the growth is not down too much but the valuation is more moderate here we can take a look at the for pe of facebook and alphabet together facebook in blue and then both of them against the s&p 500 on a relative basis facebook used to be much more expensive. they are basically the same value. but yo

steve liesman is looking at how americans view the trump economy and mike santoli zeros in on the impact let's start with ylan in washington ylan >> contessa, the house is now in its final hour of debate on the first article of impeachment, abuse of power it will then move on to three more hours of debate on whether president trump obstructed congress house speaker nancy pelosi will preside over the final votes of articles later tonight she has slowly and carefully built the support of her caucus around this vulnerable moderate to rapidly fallen in line over the past week but on the floor this afternoon, republicans laid responsibility for impeachment directly at pelosi's feet. >> to my democrat colleagues, madam chair, i say, please stop tearing the country apart. stop this sham. >> democrats argue that they have been forced into action. >> we cannot rely on the next election as a remedy for presidential misconduct when the president threatens the very integrity of that election he has shown us he will continue to put his selfish interests above the good of the country. we must act with

>>> just about 48 minutes left of trade today we'll send it over to mike santoli.today's market dashboard. >> steph mentioned this earlier the yield curve investors suddenly untroubled by that curve. we'll plot that out for you in a second in the line of fireworks tesla, always in the crossfire between bulls and bears. a perfect world. is that what we're in now for investors? maybe some investors guesting into the too much of a good mood right now. and every which way but loose, job market tight see if that's changing based on the recent data. first take a look at three no ten year treasury yield curve. if you remember when it's below zero when it's negative the ten year yield is below three month yield that's known to be a signal of potential recession to come this is a traditional indicator the fed has identified this. the he question right now is whether this was a very brief and very shallow kind of stay in negative territory for this curve. it really did start the clock ticking towards a recession. the curve fixed itself with fed going on hold and yields going

. >>> 50 minutes of trade left let's get to mike santoli. >> hey, carl here's what we're going to lookt over the next couple of hours. many happy returns that's not just gifts going back to stores. today going to track the path of this rally then boxes big and small the story of retail, big boxes or delivery boxes. the neediest cases year end always a good time to look at some of the dogs of the dow or the other indexes as well and then post-holiday payback. that is a question basically asking if there's a jarring ride to the new year. let's look at a somewhat longer term, three return of the s&p 500 here this is going to capture a lot of the comings and goings, of course here is early 2018 pretty climactic top we are looking at another year-end uptrend that started with a pullback in august. and right back here, you also had this little mini pullback in august of 2017 people got enthusiastic. we got the passage of the tax law. and then as we got into year end as you know, people piled in we thought it was an all clear are we seeing something similar here this is about a 10% move from

let's send it over to mike santoli for his third dashboard of the day mike >> asking right now if the the market are still in line, still in gear to drive that cyclical rebound that we've seen in the last few months. take a look at this etf compared to the s&p 500 it is called the rwcd. it is actually a single etf which is cyclical stocks over defensive stocks so it's long cyclical stocks in each sector, short defensive ones it's a small etf it just started earlier this year, but as a proxy for this trade, it functions pretty well and you see, there's been a pretty big giveback and today it underperform dramatically, but it's still built up enough of a cushion of performance, especially since august, which i think is the significant day this is a six-month chart. august is when we really saw that climate in the defensive trade and the rebound. so right now, i do still think you can say that cyclicals are outperforming on an ongoing basis. financials, as well. although, again, it's a little bit ten wous auous and there's some giveback on that trade. >> it's been a wild day here on wall

mike santoli, back to you. >>> let's send it to jon fortt for what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> ourt trying to get the merger approved boost mobile ceo joins us coming up on "squawk alley. ding, and l, ding, and l, it feels like i'm just wasting time. wasted time is wasted opportunity. >>exactly. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. see, you just >>oh, this is easy. yeah, and that's >>oh, just what i need. courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. yeah. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. >>so it's like my streaming service. well exactly. well except now, you're binge learning. >>oh, i like that. thank you, i just came up with that. >>you're funny. learn fast with the td ameritrade education center. call 866-296-7451 or visit tdameritrade.com/learn. get started today, and for a limited time, get up to $800 when you open and fund an account. that's 866-296-7451, or tdameritrade.com/learn. ♪ >>> welcome b

let's send it over to mike santoli. couple of sticky points of the labor market everyone kept pointing out during the expansion, not so great wage and lower end of the labor market take a look at this chart, this is percentage of prime age workers that are in the labor force that have jobs right now a very steady, steep rise, what's interesting of the latest number is we match the pre-2007 and recession levels another 2% point obviously whatever it is a couple of million jobs you have to add to this age group. it tells you, we are getting towards a fuller situation and for many months, the supply waiver is helping out. here is a wage chart that's not straight out it separates things out from everybody and production basically entry level and people who are not managers or executives that's in orange that's stronger and you open up this gap it is about 3.7% annual bases in today's report that's something that happens at the end of expansion there are merits troo ig to keep t the expansion going. it does mean it is a favo

power set of siblings continuing and friendly rivalry. >> i like that that's nice. >>> over to mike santolinal chafrt day for us. mike, what do you got. >> court, all day cale ray tausche has been talking about the business round table business optimism index declining. highlighted with the chart here. two measures of business confidence in blue to it conference board ceo confidence index that's mostly large company ceos in orange the yesterday we got the number for the nfib small business optimism. as you can see it's unusual to have this much of a gap. when you do have a gap to have small businesses more optimistic than large, mall businesses sometimes bear the brunt of weak times in the economy clearly trade is an overarching issue more applicable to what big companies are dealing with than small renaissance macrowhich put it together suggests any clarity op trade could have the gap narrow a bit. probably by large company confidence rising. i would also say nfib is also very kind of policy oriented it's a lobbying group. very, very small businesses not even russell 2000. very mom and pop

. >> the most arrest accident baseball fan that i know is mike santoli. i asked what do you think of this and he said he'd rather not this happen, especially on yankees jerseys which has been clean automatll these years but a good time to quote jerry seinfeld who says with plarts moving so often, you find yourself rooting foot ye ining y so we're screaming about the laundry. >> it should be on the sleeve. >> i agree >> and the card ininal looks wed because it looks like a stick. >> even if they put it on the sleeve, twitter would still be -- >> they hate everything. >> i just fear that they are opening the do aor to something more so uniforms don't look like nascar drivers >> and this is what is -- obviously go to european soccer, it is all about whoever the sponsor is in the nba now, most teams have some sort of blaze on their journals >> and business news anchor, that is when >> yeah, sponsored by stitch fix. >> chewy >> folks thank, very much. that was all too much fun. >> glad your cat made it >>> the s.e.c. recently announced it assessed more than $4

i am morgan brennan with mike santoli, carl is off, jon on assignment this morning.nth off to a rough start, tech le

let me send it over to mike santoli. he has today's market dashboard. >> going to start with an extreme tilt that would be the extreme skew of the stock indexes to the upside and what that might mean for the shorter term time for a reversal. look at the sector and performance breakdown for this year and ask whether we might see some turn about there going into 2020. not standing still, what's supposed to be kind of a boring state, asset allocation, balanced strategy between stocks and bonds was anything but boring this year and we'll take a look at that. and long, sharp horns. the bulls are starting to get aggressive so a sentiment check in the next hour an extreme tilt, though. take a look at a two-year chart of the s&p 500 this is not only catching last year's dramatic drop, but also the january 2018 we've kind of obliterated all of that i think the key thing right now people are looking at is that you kind of have these trend lines here where the market has been riding the upper end of it for quite a while right now.

mike santoli is here to talk more about what investors are watching as the response is this once againhas been very firm in the last couple of weeks. that little pullback but during the last few days i've been talking about how there's been a lot of hedges. the trade seems to be, look, stay long, do your end, everything else is working in their favor but we have this one identifiable potential catalyst that can go either way let's hedge in front of it you had this kind of juiced volatility index because people were buying downside protection. well, this one tweet kind of like knocked a lot of that loose and so you release to the upside the overall story is if the two big roles, don't fight the fed and don't fight the tape both the fed and tape are friendly at the moment at least in terms of how those trends are looking i obviously think it matters if you do get the deferral or lifting of the disease 15th's tariffs but matters for the next couple of percent, it doesn't necessarily matter as much for where the market will end up. >> meanwhile there's plenty of other macro to consider. la

i'm david faber along with morgan brennan and mike santoli. carl and sarah have this morning off.alf hour into trading we are up broadly speaking yet again, as we continue to put together a lot of very strong days. >> our own map starts with president trump's post-impeachment plans yesterday's historic vote means for your money >>> plus an exclusive with the treasury secretary steven mnuch mnuchin. we'll discuss the latest in trade as the house prepares to vote on the usmca deal later today. >>> stocks continuing their run higher with the nasdaq hitting a new record high and the others close to follow. how should you be playing your portfolio only a few days left in 2019 to trade >>> we begin with the impeachment of president trump there is more news to come as things move to the senate. il ylan mui is in d.c >> reporter: senator mcconnell is mounting an aggressive defense of president trump against the two articles of impeachment, and accusing the house of conducting a "slap dash investigation. >> the house's conduct risks a deeply damaging the institutions of american government

mike santoli put up a really smart chart friday afternoon, it basically showed the pe ratio doubled from lows in january of 2019, speaking to the valuation we've seen take place in this name this year, is it getting expensive now? >> well, it used to be in the value camp you look at the index owners, it has shifted out of value, more back into growth we see the valuation catching up to the stock the target price is 300 as you correctly stated, but it is rerated higher investors will look at revenues and earnings growth, the core fundamentals of the company, revenues and earnings growth, and less about valuation expansion. the whole market with interest rates being so low, a lot of investors don't value putting money into cash. you're not earning interest on the savings account in the bank. the equity markets overall have seen a boost into valuation and apple participated in it, but yes, you are indeed correct with your statement which is smart about the valuation has materially appreciated, and target price is $300 >> jim, give me your analysis here when i look at it, i want to know what

i am morgan brennan with mike santoli, carl is off, jon on assignment this morning. first trading day of the month off to a rough start, tech leading declines the dow is down over 200 points. of course, pointing to weaker than expected manufacturing survey >> that was definitely the trigger. a lot of the rally since late summer was about a process with industrial activity. i will point out weakness today is not specifically concentrated in manufacturing, it seems like it is an excuse to say we had a nice run, haven't had many pull backs. see the nasdaq down 1.4% not full of manufacturing. it is more of a general cemen sentiment. u.s. data not improving on time according to the schedule investors were hoping, we have a backoff. i would point out, s&p is back to where we traded a week ago friday we're skimming a bit off the top of the last part of the rally. >> dow is down 220 as we talk now. meantime, let's turn to the political ad hold outs mark sazuckerberg was reiteratig facebook's policy for now. >> at the end of the day i just think that in a democracy people sho

very much for keeping us up to date on the moving parts joining us to discuss the market impact, mike santolib mi pisani we were hitting fresh record highs for the major averages, that's gone. what happened? >> the headline is new tariffs are delayed, some existing tariffs reduced, that's the headline, a positive why we didn't rally, the market has been anticipating this for weeks. we had a tremendous move up in the month of december in anticipation of exactly this now maybe if there was a little more reduction on tariffs, existing tariffs, including 25% part that kayla put up, that list there, you might have gotten better reaction this is in line with what the market was anticipating. it is a phase one light. i read mr. lighthizer's statement, there's no real specific numbers on any of the purchases, what's going to be purchased. kayla reflected that uncertainty overall. seems like parts of it are still being negotiated the thing that matters on tariffs, markets already had that priced in. >> shares of caterpillar higher by more than 1%, now down a half percent. that's a trade sensitive stoc

i am jon fortt, mike santoli, carl quintanilla has the morning off, and morgan brennan is live from capeaveral, florida early this morning, boeing starline had complications with delivery post launch morgan >> reporter: yes, that's right, jon. complications that are continuing to be assessed, addressed, and shape what is going to happen, the next steps for the boeing starliner spacecraft this was the first test, first flight of starliner, uncruewed, no people on board, failing to make the trip to the international space station as was planned. the launch itself which happened about 6:36 a.m. this morning went according to expectation. the issue arose when starliner separated from the upper stage of the atlas 5 united launch alliance rocket, about 15 minutes later, an issue that can basically be summed up more or less as one tied to automation and it was an anomaly that just a short while ago in a press conference with nasa, boeing and the united launch alliance officials was summed up as one that if astronauts had actually been in this spacecraft, they would have been safe the entire tim

joining us to morning, mike santoli covering the up swing in the best of both worlds. >> the market wasng a good number, good news is good news no implications for the fed trying to restrain things. it is interesting, you look at the week, we did a v in psychology and the stock market, a week ago yesterday hit the all-time high, 3150 in the s&p 500. we ran into ism numbers that challenged the rally u.s. growth close to 2%. weaver an overbought market, little shakeout. now it seems like numbers since then restored that premise that things are getting better or never got that bad as we thought late summer. the question now, we return to the highs. still have valuation relatively full still need trade to fall into line to some degree, to get away from the idea we have a tariff threat before maybe the seasonal effects help us out again. >> how is it possible good news is actually good news given everything we have been through, and should an investor be cautious about that? >> i think good news can absolutely be good news. first of all, on the economy undoubtedly in terms of dynamics, inter

hitting all-time highs, intel, levels not since 2000 facebook at a 52 week high tim lesco and mike santoli with us. senior markets commentator tim, we talked about why collectively the sell side got apple so wrong this year why do you think it was? is it about the model changing to services and the mystery of margins behind that or is it something else >> i think the mystery behind the move to services has been very well covered and apple seems to have successfully maneuvered from a company that made all of the cell phone industry's profits to one that's making profits outside of just the cell phone industry, and that took a lot. people expected maybe that apple would become the next blackberry, next nokia who once owned the market like apple does. >> we had this conversation before, worth revisiting it again, the idea of apple an indicator for the broader market. >> it is not so much indicator in economic bellwether status or something telling you about other parts of the economy that also effect the market but it is a marquise name when people want to buy market windows, momentum inheren

mike santoli joins me live with the story. take it any direction you want, but i was interested youed a dre addressed this topic with roger altman a couple hours ago, and his answers were interesting. >> absolutely. tyler, obviously, we know we can't entirely gauge when a cycle is going to end by the chronological age. right now, the signals within it are mixed. first of all, there is an inherent trade-off between a slow recovery, which we've had since 2009 and expansion, and a long one i think the length and durability of this says something about the fact it's been relatively plotting it also depends on what parts of the economy you look at. there are things that look, at least on the surface, to be late in the cycle employment, 3.5% unemployment. how many better can that get consumer confidence at high levels recently but seemingly has peaked and flattened out corporate debt is at record levels car sales also peaked a few years ago. all those things would suggest, okay, it is getting a little late in the game other stuff do

thank you to everyone we rely on to get us home to the ones we love. ♪ >>> let's get to mike santoli.wouldn't say that the commodity index crb is a secret, but it's not one that we look at typically all the time every day. in fact, this -- there's an equal weighted version of this that actually looks like it's on the move a little bit more what's interesting about this is you have a very important low in late summer. we had this, of course, deflation recession fear that really had a crescendo in august and then another goodloe in october and it's starting to run again. within this you have crude oil near the top of its range, copper is starting to run again. it seems as if there's a little bit of a reflation and there's macro indicators of cyclical strength they're settling in. the flip side of the commodities move is the u.s. dollar index has faltered off its highs it's certainly not broke down. it was in a range but this move starting in early october is somewhat the kind of obverse of what was happening in commodities. all of this suggests in a reflation mode and markets are trying

i've been wrong for a bit on this thing i think mike santoli said something interesting on the show withlier today. this is a stock that trades off of the eternal tomorrow, whatever that is i liked it. can't trade $68 billion market cap on the delivery guidance that they're going to give us next month and what they end up doing because they routinely disappoint on that i think the shorts have been wrong to focus on those sorts of things because they get burned every time and they get too negative, they say, well, they're going to do 400 cars and they're only doing 370 it doesn't really matter at this point. i think it's also notable today they have their wholly owned factory in shanghai. delivering cars. stock down like this into the stock and a lot of good news in the stock. >> i think you make a great point, that eternal tomorrow the big story here is that ev vehicles are real. that's a good thing. it's a more environmentally friendly and sustainable kind of transportation future. the question is is given the run it's had, as this company tries to enter automotive adulthood where they

and cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here as well mike, what do you think?s morning futures went from up to down to not down so much to all of a sudden down by 170 points? >> it's a perfectly handy excuse for a pull back. we went up 9%. no pull backs from october 8th or something like that until a couple of days ago you were right for kind of some disturbance in here to the bull case the very, very gentle consensus bull case was de-escalation on trade. we have an inflection point. both of those things got challenged, the ism number i think exacerbating factor. i don't think it's possible for the markets in any systematic way in any kind of rigorous way to discern what the meaning of the president's comments were. it could easily have been one of his normal conversational switchbacks. it could have been a signal he was getting tough. it could have been a signal maybe putting china on -- who knows but the point is that the premise of de-escalation and a rubber stamp deal and no tariffs december 15th is at least a challenge. >> don't you get nervous when he fee

next year, that's something mike santoli we'll be watching closely in 2020. >> it was two markets, throughin tone across asset classes, thank you very much, dom chu joining us now to talk more on what to expect, the president and chief investment officer good morning, scott, good to see you. so just talk tactically where we sit? we have this upward drift. pretty typical of year end around the holidays. where does that take us the next few days and beyond? >> i think dom was right to focus first on interest rates. you don't have to be a genius to be a bull. ten-year yield is more than 100 basis points tan it was this time a year ago at 1.9%. as long as it's below 2, you don't have to be that brave to buy stocks so as long as interest rates remain low and the yield curve remains uninverted, then i would continue to be a bull. there is one thing that is worrisome, though, that is the options market is saying something that's a little bit ominous. if you look at the money implied volatility in the s&p space, it's low that's what you would expect in the highs and in the middle of the holiday se

just how late in this cycle are we mike santoli joins us. he has some answers. good question this reena bides because you keep getting mixed signals. different parts of the economy are operating on different clocks out of sync the longest expansion but not a lot looks late, mid, early here's what looks late not over but late. employment, 3.5% employment. we're seeing more job growth that's probably more late than not. consumer confidence peaked, flattened out. corporate debt has built up to record levels. that's something that's an atmospheric condition that does happen towards the latter part of the cycle car sales peaked a few years ago. in years past that would have been a good bellwether it's backed off and not fallen apart. here's what looks not so late. housing, it really was slow to recover during this expansion. it's now got really good supply and demand dynamics. cop summer debt levels the consumer debt burden is way lower than you would expect a decade into an expansion and that is actually something that really is giving a lot of people reassurance th

i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli at the new york stock exchange.ramer has the morning off it is a familiar picture by now. futures up, s&p set, not only for a record high, but should open above 3249. europe's book to work. ftse up, best run in three years. and oil and gold continue to catch bids as well road map begins with records on a roll s&p closing in for the best year since '97. >> the apple surge on track for what will be the best yearly stock rally in a decade. the company is in talks to buy japan's displays primary smartphone screen factory. >> and tesla on a tear shares climb to above 430. the automaker expecting a rollout the first china made model 3s on monday >> there seems to be no stopping the year end rally stocks are on track to hit new record highs nasdaq as we said in the midst of the longest daily win streak since 09 after closing above 9,000 for first time ever. watching 3249 as we said but 3259 would give you 30% for the year we only had two years in the past three decades with a 30% gain. >> yeah, i mean the pace in the last

. >> thanks to mike santoli for his duds there he's looking pretty sharp. >> isn't he sweet? >> where's number one? he's chopped liver now >> number one is with daddy. they have been spending a lot of time together lately let me tell you, divide and conqueror. >> he's the beautiful newest member of the cnbc family. >> thank you, sue. >> so sweet. >> sweetest little guy >> now that i'm retiring and you're still on maternity leave, i'm hoping i can come over for a cup of coffee and we can watch soap operas. >> that's all i have been doing. glm sure >> i love being here, but when do you get here? >> march it's going to fly. like two months left to go >> it's flying what was your favorite story this year? >> oh, my gosh is that what we were just talking about? >> this would be the rapid fire wind right now >> favorite story of rapid fire was bill's googling habits >> that was a theme. >> leslie picker especially enjoyed that, yes. >> exactly >> i missed that i don't know if i want to know all right. >> we'll just leave it at that there's too many to pick from. and yeah >> the cut

economic trade consultation joining us is j.j.kinehan and also mike santoli. been playing this game for a long time. yes, they're going to sign a deal no, they're not going to sign a deal what happens today feels like this is some sort of a culmination. >> it is it's a culmination from this entire process from the market's perspective it's more about do we suspend the tariffs due to go on sunday? do we get beyond that? we spent yesterday pricing in a likelihood i also think though it's important to recognize that all happened on a day when we got some clarity on brexit, when you had the fed come out and say, look, we're going to do everything possible. we're not going to allow stress and we got movement towards a federal budget deal. so you had this moment in the markets where it's kind of like what's there to worry about if, in fact, we get over the line with china the question is had the rally already told you there's a lot less to worry about. would that create more and an up side chase >> i don't think everything's -- it's great that we had all of this stu

i'm scott wapner with morgan brennan and mike santoli live from the new york stock exchange carl, jimavid have the morning off. let's get you set up for the trading day by looking at futures. stocks off their worst day in four weeks and look now to open lower yet again. nasdaq is coming off its first back-to-back losses in three weeks. nasdaq would open lower by 20. dow down by 50 and the s&p by about 5.5. and the latest s&p case-shiller report is out, showing 3.3% gain in home prices during october compared to one year ago our road map starts with the decade long bull run stocks on track for their best year since 2013. markets poised for a lower open on this final trading day of 2019 >> plus, uber and postmates sue california the ride hailing giant and delivery firm are trying to block a law that would require them to treat gig workers as employees. >> the ousted head of nissan renault fleeing to lebanon carlos ghosn saying he was escaping what he called a rigged japanese justice system. >> as we head into the final trading session of 2019, the dow up 22% year to date. the s&p 500 wi

i'm david faber along with jim cramer, mike santoli -- we see them be breaking news, moments away fromriefing where chinese trade negotiatoring will update us. president trump tweeting last hour a "wall street journal" story on the chinese deal is completely wrong, especially on the tariffs. jim cramer reported there was not a plan to roll back tariffs as had been reported by a "wall street journal," for example we dipped in the market once the president's tweet came out we've come back a bit, and we expect to hear some things from the chinese side that would help us understand. so it's almost like comical. >>> let's get to that with rick santelli bring us the numbers. >> david, there's good news and bad news, first of all it's a fourth quarter number, better than expected, up 0.2 since july that will add to gdp here's the fly in the ointment last night that's a second down, tenth in a row it's rare to see reversals in business inventories i can't even find an example of two of them back to back so a bit weaker on the revision, but solid inventories numbers. we know inventories will al

i'm carl kwipts with david faber, mike santoli in for sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchangerd high for the s&p at the open. looking for a fifth day of gains as boeing continues to be somewhat of a headwind for the dow. our road map begins with their big suspension, the company announcing a production halt of the max with the stock nearing negative territory for the year. >> plus an exclusive with former fed chair alan greenspan and get his thoughts on the trade war, record rally and more. >> amazon as fedex fight preventing sellers from using fedex ground for prime shipments as the shipping wars heat up. >>> boeing, on track for what would be a fourth straight day of losses after the company confirmed it will suspend the production of the grounded 737 max beginning in january phil lebeau is here, something we're always excited about, but you're following this story wherever you are and this is a significant development. >> the question becomes they made the announcement, we talked yesterday it was expected. now that they've done it, how long does this last? nobody is saying

i'm scott wapner with morgan brennan and mike santoli carl, jim and david have the morning off.'s take a look at how futures are set up today and you do have, well, mixed picture across the board. the s&p is one-third of 1% away from its best gain since 1997. nasdaq up 11 of the past 12 days we'll see what the last -- second to last trading day of the year has in store for us road map today starts with the record-breaking year for stocks. the s&p within striking distance of its best yearly gain since '97. >> plus, tesla's china play, the automaker ruling out first sedan from the shanghai factory with ramping up next month. >> we begin with the year end rally and the record run for stocks mike, it has been quite a year and we go into 2020 seemingly with a lot of momentum. >> been a very, you know, kind of orderly low drama rally in december a lot of folks say we may be set up for a pullback. i think we keep having to remind people, it has been a great year, successive record highs for much of the year we started in a deep hole. i think that's important not to sort of downplay wha

over to mike santoli for "trading nation. michael?s time now for "trading nation." apple quietly making strides this week up 3% thanks to strong holiday sales and wall street's positive outlook for the 3030 year and the advent of 5g compatible iphones sharing climbing over 1% in today's session. what is next bill and quinn join me now bill, that's sort of like obscuring the move that apple has made, it's actually doubled from the january 3rd low at this point, so where does that leave you? i mean, really the only question is not, hey, is this stock going to strong uptrend, it's has it become too overheated? what do you think? >> well, the consumer is amazing right now and that narrative is driving things, but apple has found ways to monetize a number of ways. you have the phone in your hand, the tv in your home, the card in your wallet. i'm here to talk about the technicals the chart is soaring, ripping higher, rallied 20% above last year's high. i think there's still more room to go. there is a trend line on this chart comes in at 25

mike santoli has been looking into the similarities between this year and rally and another recent onely. as a matter of fact, if you look at the four-year chart of the s&p, it does not seem like there's been all that much volatility you see some choppiness this year this little spot right here is december of 2017 we had this very calm rally all year up more than 25% going into december very much like this year then there was this acceleration, december 22nd of that year. the long anticipated passage of the tax cut bill that created this real stampede to the up side we're not seeing something similar although a little bit of an acceleration. the trade agreement not as economically consequential not sure you necessarily want to see that huge pile in of stocks because usually that's what makes a rally unstable you have this tremendous kind of climax of optimism and then you have a break right now it's a much more gentle slope and we have to keep watching to see if the public gets excited euro stocks, the broad european equities euro stocks. 20-year charred. if we wanted to draw a line al

strategy in the last few trading days on the decade, charlie mcelligott and cnbc markets commentator mike santolin trading a series of new highs how do you -- what's the calculus there what is happening? why is it such a knee-jerk reaction in the markets? >> i think the simple acknowledgment where it stands from the senate perspective, it's another historical footnote it doesn't impact the transition we've seen from the start of 2019 story which was this fear of the end of cycle trade metastasizing into a recession because of the china twrard drar dynamic. now it's repricing of growth higher into a much more optimistic outlook into 2020 that's where the focus is. you've pivoted back to effectively this goldilocks era of lower rates, monetary policy that's supportive of expansion on top of 2% gdp growth. it's a great environment to be long risk. >> you think that market participants are factoring in what this does for the election in november 2020 and deciding that it may be a positive or maybe not a negative >> i think there's nothing incremental or new to price in to the electoral probabilities

want to continue this conversation and joining us is chris verone our own mike santoli is with us as i don't know if you can look at the technicals given that we're now talking about something that's non-technical at all. how do you play the technicals at the time when we're playing the headlines? >> we subscribe to the view that price leads data in this business and price leads news. >> right. >> when you look at the response of the market over the last number of weeks even as hesitation around the china stuff came back into play, the market acted great sentiment doesn't seem like much of a threat. the street is running net short of s&p futures when buy look at the market here, we just broke out of a two-year range let's not get too cute and buy any weakness when you look at messages of cyclicality that emerged, copper is breaking out. >> in terms of thinking of the china news, santoli, what do you think is baked into the market do you think this was basically already baked in, frankly? >> i think it's largely baked in, but the market needed and craved reassurance about that. that's

i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santoli at the new york stock exchange.ning off it is a familiar picture by now. futures up, s&p set, not only for a record high, but should open above 3249. europe's book to work. ftse up, best run in three years. and oil and gold continue to catch bids as well road map begins with records on a roll

i'm scott wapner with morgan brennan and mike santoli live from the new york stock exchange carl, jimr the trading day by looking at futures. stocks off their worst day in