i'm mike santoli you just heard the bell.e a second straight down week. as fed officials talk big and hit a wall is this just a pause for the start of the year. let's ask head of u.s. equity strategy at rbc capital markets as the folks from sap kind of

i heard you talking to mike santoli about that i think that's fascinating you keep talking about hard landings and soft landings i'm still waiting to hear about the landing. we've been talking about this for a year and we've yet to come to a conclusion. i think it's just, you know, the time that we live in, which is a complete age of uncertainty. i think that's where we're at and i think that bodes well for cme group. >> you mentioned the fed fund future, starting to price in cuts this year, even though numerous fed officials, including the chair himself, said we don't see cutting rates this year. we're not planning on it and it's not the scenario. so how should we interpret what the market is telling us there >> i think that's the beauty of the market people can express their views on what they think is going to happen over the next several months as i said, 90% chance of probability of a hike and 70% chance and near the end of the year they're talking about a small cut. that's the market's reaction to what they think is going to happen it doesn't mean it's going to happen i guess we

. >>> welcome back mike santoli here for his midday word the president said what he did in the stated now buffett fires backs at the critics. >> i think there's a lot of political noise around it. if biden can come out and have a populist message, and say this is a giveaway, and people that run the companies can say we are being careful in how we use our capital, and both are kind of right but the idea that you ston around your company to all of the employees and you have this big liability that was going to dilute everybody else and it's okay because we'll sop it up with cash for the shareholders, that's not great if you're paying more for the stock. buffett has been very, very strict about the idea that management teams would be more discerning about what price they get it ought and he used to have rules when he was buying back berkshire shares and above book value, and i think there's nuance to it i totally agree that the anti-buyback campaign is kind of demagoguery and it is not really based on how companies work, but it's not like this became the standard way companies deal with

. >>> first senior market commentator mike santoli joins us what are you watching? >> the interday strength, sara, continues to be the strength not dramatic index moves if you look at where we sit in the 4130s, exactly where we essentially closed the week before last. it's been a week and a half of sideways digestion, that 7% gain in january has basically been held the more aggressive parts of the market are outperforming so you're seeing there's a little bit more risk appetite in the market, defensives have been soft not really resolving anything but remaining supported as the market consolidates right here in the face of those hotter than expected economic data it's a high-pressure economy, higher pressure than we thought coming in. 2.4% the atlanta fed tracking gdp growth versus zero it's early in the quarter but take a look at the u.s. dollar index. it's reflecting a similar sentiment. people thought it would be down side risk. the fed perhaps being finished sooner than later. a real bounce. we went back to sort of springtime levels, pulled back toward 105, 104,

let'sbring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli as the market is talking about the vix. >> the vix for sure. people definitely laying some bets with the vix at the lower end and treasury market's version of the vix, the move index also has -- has woken up in the last few weeks. last year really was the battle front for the markets. bond market volatility it reflected the fed sprinting to catch up with inflation to have a credible interest rate to restrain inflation at the same time the inflation data were coming out so wide of the mark remember we went ten straight months with inflation coming in above economists' forecast that showed you there was this very open-ended and uncertain bond market action that did relax after october we got peak narrative firmly in place, the market slotted into that theory for several months and now it's just picking up a little bit as we have adding some potential rate hikes to the fed plan for this year so, i think it all kind of reflects all the macro issues that we've had to contend with now, right now i wouldn't say it's at critical level

i think that's why it's not just a zero sum game. >> i'll see you in a few hours that's mike santoli.ail. there's still time ade's award-wg trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. >>> brynn, i'm coming to you first. bonnie in new york city, please grade this stock i purchased in october of 2022. it's tech nip fmc, more shares added ad 12.95 what does she do here? up huge over the last year, it's a double >> yeah, so for investors who don't know, this is a company that is based in houston that do oil services and equipment they focus on sub-c. so underwater oil service equipment, highly technical. they have $8.8 billion in backlogs right now, and 90% of the revenues are overseas. the company is just done incredible from a stock pr

mike, thank you. >> mike santoli. >>> as the s&p hits its lowest level of the month, the vix rises to almost the highest on the vix. mike wilson offers his take on the macro over the weekend he says the bear market rally that began in october has given way to a speculative frenzy based on a fed pause that is not coming is he right? joining us today, carlyle group's co-founder, david rubenstein it's great to have you thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure for being here. thank you for having me. >> you've been pretty clear, even when the market sort of doubted it, that inflation would be persistent. do you regard the last few weeks as the market coming down to what chair powell has been trying to get across for months? >> i think the market is finally recognizing that inflation is not going away the fed is resolute. they made it clear several times recently that they really want to get the rate down to -- inflation rate down to 2%, not 3% i think the market takes the fed very seriously but that doesn't mean we're going to have a hard landing or so-called recession. it's too early

another winning week despite the losses today mike santoli here to break it down mike, i would call this sell-off subdued given the magnitude on the beat. >> very contained, i would say and in a sense, really to be expected even if we didn't get that super strong jobs report, in other words, already up so much and getting stretched in the short term that you would have taken any excuse to back off just a little bit. you mentioned yields higher. they are although very much within the range of the last week or so so it's not as if it's really repriced fed intentions we have the s&p 500 actually made this new multi -- like a five-month high. still well -- i would say we get a 3% to 5% pullback from here. it will look like regular old profit-taking. it will be hard to really dent this trend with a one-day pullback like we have right now. we also have this really interesting feature of the market, sara, this week which -- year to date, the crash in momentum stocks, momentum etf which tracks what's been doing well previously has completely unwound and here you have the momentum factor etf, mtu

gearing up to report in just an hour from now all surging today on the back of that meta news mike santoli, positive reaction and then meta is the cherry on top. >> exactly, sara the markets are saying the central banks will get it done that's what you would say if you look at the second half where yields are, so inflation may be taken care of. at least the stakes are lower for each fed meeting, six and seven weeks apart. small rises, if anything some of the things happening, the technical condition of the market is getting a lot more attention. the 50-day average about to cross above the 200. started talking about how things were starting to line up the textbook october low mid-term election. big january effects. cyclical leadership, some breadth to the rally a lot of those things have taken hold now it's starting to run hot, going vertical here. we're up 6% at this point in the s&p 500. you're starting to see some of the more speculative stuff rip even harder. we're at levels that we were trading at in here that's in may of last year what happened between may and now? well, earnings esti

our commentator mike santoli to break down the trading day erin is here and dan ives from web bush has ahead of those key reports, a couple stocks that have moved a lot to start the year mike santoli, you were tracking for the worst day of the year for all three of the majors as rates continue to go up and stocks look unsteady >> and a pretty steady bleed lower, a little bit of a different feel, almost a 2022 feel, kind of repricing stocks a little lower in the face of those much higher yields versus a few weeks ago. what i find interesting is it's the worst day since december 15th and there's a lot of -- we were kind of going sideways for a few weeks into mid-december. we basically went down 2.5% that day. we continued lower and chopped sid sideways people thought that was it it seems like a similar setup, only 100 points high owner the s&p versus what we were then i don't think you say all of a sudden the entire start of the year was a mirage, but this was the pullback we built up the cushion for coming into february >> the question is how much more pain is ahead. according to our ne

mike santoli joins me.p. >> i think that was the push we got coming after loretta mester from cleveland saying they would have voted for half a percent increase at the last meeting, the fed will have to get rates up to the 5.5 area this is not out of the range of what folks were saying in december we did have members then saying that i think we had a market that the low for the day has been 4,100 on the s&p, plus or minus 1% here we are back right around that level, just testing it. you can look at this and say, well, the market has been essentially using up a lot of energy just to stay still over the last couple of weeks or say this is traction it shows people are underinvested, buying gifts because they believe the economy is in firmer shape we are going to continue, i think, to face those tests for what's the yield level that is relevant in the here and now to stocks after this run that we've had. >> we're not even making new interday highs on the two-year yield. >> we're not. >> we saw that this morning

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mike santoli with us as everybody adjusts to this new world where the fed hikes rates more than originally expected, and keeps them higher for longer. >> and equities are repricing against that it's interesting, as we got through january, if you ask people, what are you most worried about based on the actions this year so far retail investors getting overexcited about the market, we saw a real comeback in speculative stocks we're worried they're going back to that phase of recklessness and throwing money at an expensive market what we've seen since then, among private wealth management type clients at b of a is a rotation continuing into debt. now, i think a lot of that is a catch-up move. if you went back a year ago, retail investors, wealthy investors were underinvested in bonds relative to history. they hated bonds so, there is competition for equities right now it's a decent one. you have a nice yield cushion coming from safer bonds. i think that that rotation makes sense. i look at the silver lining, at least it means investor sentiment is not getting overoptimistic you've seen that i

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do rates actually matter to stocks mike santoli will tell us after this break >>> welcome back, everybodythe nasdaq composite versus the ten-year treasury yield since august 2020. while the ten-year has soared by se sevenfold the nasdaq is virtually flat it's up about 7% what gives how much do rates actually matter to stocks let's settle this once and for all and mike santoli, cnbc markets commentator. >> i would not say interest rates don't matter to stocks, lifting the hurdle rates for investors and for companies to decide exactly what projects are worth doing creates more friction, i think, in the overall system so, yes, higher yields matter for valuation and for investor targets of their capital i think what i object to and have for a while is this idea that there's a fixed, precise relationship between the level of yields and the level of stocks or particularly big growth stocks because i think that was last year, it seemed like all you needed to know, right? is that yields were going up and the nasdaq was going down and on a tactical basis and on the shorter term timeframe people tr

let's bring in mike santoli to discuss. mike, i say that noting that we are lower right now in the markets. but the fact that this report was so strong, unemployment rate actually ticked lower. the response here, why hasn't it been worse >> well, yes definitely worth asking that question just because we're conditioned to see such a dramatic show of unexpectedly good news to translate into a rougher time for stocks. and we are still in the s&p 500 well above where we were above that fed decision on wednesday so, that's a good benchmark. a few things we could point to, a perceived fluke factor in the beat on payrolls, not to say it's all seasonal adjustments or it's all one-off factors, whether it beillness or other things it just seems that it's a little bit high yes, it reinforces the idea the labor market is tight, but not necessarily something we can plan on this being the pace going ahead from here. the other part of it is what jay powell did on wednesday was in part to delink the unemployment rate from immediate fed poli

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nasdaq was up on nvidia and ai enthusiasm let's bring in mike santoli. turn in the markets this morning. what happened? >> it's a little test of how much nvidia is really a bellwether and how much is a unique, singular situation i think we got a little of a verdict on that. nvidia right now, its gain is more than the overall gain in the s&p 500, so it shows you the rest of the market we are around these same levels. 5% pullback from the highs of three weeks ago. the other piece is the two-year treasury yield trading more or less at the cycle highs. other yields came in nothing in the revised gdp data from the fourth quarter, really changed the fed picture. i think we're still contesting with that same set of issues, pinched on both sides between too hot and too cold i don't think it's necessarily a total rethink of what's gone on in the market. could, in fact, show itself to be more of a dip we got this first pullback you can see a real cooloff in retail investor sentiment. >> as we move further and further into the week, has credit proven to be a better

and later the big post earnings plunge for chegg with the ceo dan rosensweig first mike santoli, what are you watching >> not that much give in this market about two days of pullback or at least some hesitation in the market friday and yesterday, bond market got twip twitchy afr the jobs report friday but you track powell's comments, the market up 1% from its high of the year last thursday. one of the big questions coming into this week is can some of the speculative stuff that got overexcited coming into the week calm down, deflate a little bit while the overall stays the same hints that's possible. if there were a pullback to 4,000, you're still in the normal pullback zone, looks like this a little mini breakout is intact one area that we've obviously been looking at is inflation and commodities need to go further up the chain here's a true year of the commodity index etf. well down from the mid-2022 highs but sticky around this level, which was really right around the russia's invasion of ukraine last february. so clearly some of the pressure has come off but oil is up off the lows

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and let's get straight to the market and mike santoli. what are you watching? two year yield i'd point out is higher on the back of that inflation trend. and tech is holding up despite that >> true, short term yields definitely have replaced a little bit higher, though the bulk of the yield move seemed to happen the last couple weeks you're right, tech is also performing fine. those two are not perfectly linked longer term yields are a little tame indecisive action in the market today. more or less on target cpi with some things perhaps to worry about the stickiest of services inflation. and it shows you that we more or less got what we expected except we're asking ourselves if we need higher fed rates, higher terminal rate, it is now getting priced in incrementally. the prospect for that. and so it leaves us really where we finished not last week but the week before. yesterday's rally got back all of last week's decline almost fto the point. and within the day, 1% moves three or four times from high to low around that flat line. take a look at the market impli

that's what you've gotdo >>> up next, make room for mike santoli coming here for his midday word aheaded decision >>> plus, we are getting ready to grade your trades email us you can tweet us if you want to doha tt. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. nothing. nothing. absolutely, nothing. it really is something. as an expedia member, you can save up to 30% when you add a hotel to your flight. so you can have a bit more money, to do even less. because you've got a whole lot of nothing to do and absolutely nowhere to be. (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. >>> all right. welcome back just over an hour until the fed's latest decision on interest rates followed by the news conference with the chair senior markets commentator mike santoli is here for his midday word what do you think we

nathan sheets in just about a half hour first, let's bring in cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli, to help break down some of the key things laid out there. mike, as the market readjusts to the new reality on the economy, inflation, and the fed >> yeah, sarah i mean, i think the big question investors are probably asking is, what are we exactly wishing for? are we wishing for an economy that is, you know, so sturdy, that it actually is going to require more fed rate hikes to slow it down enough to get inflation in line? or do we think that we're on the glide path where the fed can be satisfied with just -- we're saying, just three more quarter-point hikes. it is still going to represent an absolutely historic magnitude of tightening from the beginning of last year and will the economy remain okay i think the market, it's interesting. the stock market right now is not really priced for a recession. the bond market, the treasury yield curve, you could argue, is doing that, or is it just priced for a collapse in inflation in the second half of the year. i feel like no conviction that

no account minimums. >>> we are now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli here to break down thee trading day plus bank of america's jill kerry hall with her market outlook and joe terranova is also, of course, back with us mike, i go to you first. twitter voters aren't giving up on the market yet apparently they don't think the highs of the year are already in. >> if we pull that apart all that says is that you're not going to foreclose in the possibly the next ten months the market trades 6% higher than where we are now, a new high for 2023 it's actually logical to say, no, i'm not going to assume the highs are in for the year. i think we're in a spot right now where every really nasty, deep sell-off in the market starts looking like a 5% to 6% shakeout which is what we have not every one leads to the deeper pullback and that's, i think, nothing that has gone on right now tells you we're destined for much lower prices but are at a testing point sitting on the 200-day average and sitting where the down trend and up trend lines come together on a technical basis, i understand why

terms apply. >>> senior markets commentator mike santoli joinings now for his market word.igesting cpi. what do you make of the action so far >> well, the moves after the cly scott, kind of happen in advance of cpi in terms of the yields over the last couple of weeks. so the market wasn't caught completely flat footedness by the stickiness of the cpi. just how strong is the economy we're talking about an overheated economy tomorrow, we'll get numbers on that with retail sales, see how january was. so trying to absorb the likelihood of 5% fed rates down the road the real downside leadership is in the defensive sector. so the question is, can you get comfortable with that higher, prolonged piece of it. >> so we're going to be prisoner to the number on the economy that come out. are we just now going to have to wait for the next fed meeting? are we going to be range bound until then >> i'm not sure. i think the fed's message is going to be consistent leading up it to you have another inflation report, another jobs report before that. so i think we're going to try to handicap t

♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let there be change. >>> all right, senior market commentator mike santolick exchange for his midday word ahead of another important powell speech. this one tomorrow during this program. how are you thinking about that? >> yeah, the stakes have been raised obviously since friday's very hot jobs number and it's brought into the parke a little bit of a no landing scenario that we now have to ponder people were getting pretty comfortable, i think, pricing in a softer landing or at least a phase where it seemed like that was more plausible so i do think there's -- you have to believe there's a hazard of powell even just emphasizing the multiple rate hikes to come and all the rest of it so it's probably accounts for a lot of hesitancy in the market. really pretty contained, though, i might have expected more of a pullback just because of how overexcited a lot of things got in the short term last week whether it was some of the spec names and options volume and heavy short covering so far it seems pretty much very much in the range of normal in terms of pullbacks

mike santoli is at the new york stock exchange for his "midday word." gave it all up what happened?t. you could call it listless, orderly consolidation here after we've had the decent run nothing really going on on the yield side today or the dollar which both backed off a little bit to explain things. we talked about just the sort of emotional current running through the market it seems a limb bit kind of polarizing even though the s&p stayed this entire week within last week's high/low range, so it hasn't made any progress up or down. you see things like the demolition of alphabet and really tesla not quitting where it should probably start to quit on the upside. i've been watching all week to see if some of the overheated stuff can cool down without necessarily compromising the rest of the tape, the more rank and file stocks. that's what we're seeing i still do feel as if, though, we're in wait and see ahead of the cpi number next week as the next thing to either worry about or seize upon because we're getting past it okay >> i'm looking at this email that has all of the top stor

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on the month of february that's next. >>> we're back mike santoli is here with his midday word now. about to begin what are your thoughts >> feels like, at least for today, the don't short a down market might be in effect. i think february moderated the excesses of january. that only feels like a letdown because of how exuberant the first four, five weeks of the year were. so in terms of the widely talked about, supposed disagreement between what the treasury and stock markets are saying, the credit market is a bit of a bridge between those hings in february, year-to-date, on a six-month basis, high yield is outperforming investment grade, so spreads are okay. you can tell me that corporate credit investors are not paying attention to the risk. maybe that's true, but to me, it show there is's not a ton of stress in the system, at least tathe moment. >> final trades are next this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are?

let's bring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli. the cuts get pushed out, but i think consumer confidence, the first real data point we're getting in the month of february off strong january, being a little weaker, could be significant. >> it could be again, consumers' estimation of the present condition is actually better than expected. they continue to say, we're not sure wages are high enough. the entire macro and fundamental picture has been elongated whether it's the expected earnings erosion, hasn't really accelerated. you had that push off how long this rate-hiking cycle will continue we had a revival of risk-taking coming into this year. there was a change of character in this market and the question is, how much of february leave of that? if you go back to the peak of all the markets february 2nd, things were looking frothy, overexcited. since then you've had the cloud stocks down more than 10%, ark down 10%, heavily shorted retail names, crypto. the question is, could we cool off the overheated stuff while leaving the broa

mike santoli will break down the crucial moments of the trading day.haring his market outlook the number-one retail analyst on wall street, jpmorgan's matthew boss great to have you all with us. mr. santoli, stocks are going out with a whimper it looks and rates taking a breather. >> noncommittal all around i don't think you can really work too hard to draw a lot out of what's going on except we're sort of hovering above whatever level you were going to worry about. call it the 200-day market average. it's still split even broad sectors transports weak, machinery strong it's been selective. i do think the fact that the bond market is giving us a breather is allowing the market to get its feet under it i think it's almost offsetting confusion. the soft landings have had too hot data, and the recession is here, bears are not getting confirmation of that view. >> maybe that's why the apple poll was so split, right basically 50/50. that underscores the point you're making. >> you can also say we're well off the all-time highs, have not broken above august

mike santoli, thanks. >>> mike mentioned lyft. let's take a look at it. it is losing more than a third of its market value. this comes after rough fourth quarter earnings report last night. the company barely beating on revenue for the most recent quarter. next quarter isn't looking much better the company is expecting a miss on revenue and contribution margin alongside with a miniscule adjusted ebitda. the profitability bend it's been on looking weak right now. the street not thrilled. issuing at least eight downgrades from buy to hold so far today. if the company cannot regain an aud audience, is there an appetite for a buyer? lyft doesn't need to compete with a competitor. didi trying to rebound from beijing's crackdown. the fact we're having this conversation, jon, says a lot. this is a company that went public at a more than $20 billion valuation. kind of same story with uber these gig companies haven't lived up to their expectations i guess the question now, does uber continue to ride higher on lyft's miserable quarter and what happens to lyft >> ye

call the number on your screen. >>> senior markets commentator mike santoli for his "midday word."s market these days, right? another hot inflation report apparently can't >> not yet maybe eventually what's going to upset the market is a pervasive sense that buying the open every day is easy money and there's nothing literally that can rattle the tape. so far ppi not typically that big a market mover, still lent a lot more weight to the too hot scenario out there and then talking about a half point last meeting. we absorbed it even the yields haven't reprised that much today. we're ping-ponging between these levels we do have an expiration tomorrow probably not one of the more consequential ones i guess it's net encouraging the market finds traction continually so far in this area of 4100 on the s&p >>> i'll see you in a few hours. i look forward to your "last word" in "overtime." coming up "grade my trade" is next power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, yo

. >>> up next, mike santoli joins us for his "midday word. still ahead, "grade your trade."se in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? (vo) verizon has the epic new phone your business needs on the 5g network it deserves. so let us focus on the how. boost your team's productivity with samsung's fastest processor yet. switch and save up to $1000 on the new galaxy s23 ultra. now that's epic. on the network america relies on. 92% still active? seems high. seriously? it's just a bike. wait. they make a treadmill with an intuitive speed knob? yeah. want to try? 92% stick with it, so can you. start a 30-day home trial today. terms apply. >>> welcome back to "halftime. senior mark commentator mike santoli joins us now from the new york stock exchange with his "midday word." >>> frank, with the s&p 500 on pace for a second straight down week, just marginally at this point, i guess the question is has anything really changed about the c

tech and communication services stocks are leading the charge this time, according to jpmorgan mike santoli joins us to discuss and sort of put it in a framework of, i don't know how it colored the beginning of the year so far. >> yeah. one way to describe it, it was a massive positioning shock that we had most of it running through january. remember how downbeat december was. we did have a good rally off the october low but then waves and waves of what we interpreted as tax law selling really did depress a lot of these high-growth stocks you had people leaning short in those directions you have this burst higher into the new year the short covering activity, i'm sure in the near term, cul culminated a couple of days ago. we're looking at these numbers and saying people were forced to cover. what that means on a forward-going basis is, okay, you exhausted a little bit of buying power you probably have prices up at a level where folks will look to reshort them to me it's a question of whether, again, this was just an echo effect of the boom we had before and everything is reliant on when you

first, mike santoli, kind of a quiet, from a headline perspective, but path of least resistance is up> it is today, sara, levitating a little bit volumes are light but not a lot to stand in the way of the s&p 500 essentially traveling a pretty high percentage of last week's total range last week, we were down 1% plus but really felt worse. obviously are going to be waiting for that cpi number. that will render the near-term verdict on whether this makes sense. longer term yields, tame today, so that's leaving room for the growth stocks to work. also consumer discretionary doing well not to mention some of the names outside of energy we broke the down trend as we have been saying for a while definitely hesitation in the last week or so. pretty good two-sided debate on whether this rally has gone far must have or has shown some staying power and really sniffing out that the economy is in a firmer spot take a look at the one-year treasury build essentially, it's making new highs. it's started at the jobs report a little over a week ago and it's now the highest yield on the curve and we'r

. >> that's mike santoli all of you have a great weekend. see you on the other side. "fast money" is now. >> right now on the big show, "fast money," a huge jobs report a major apple turnaround, and despite a friday fade it was another week of gains for the s&p and nasdaq how long will this red hot start to 2023 last we're going to debate it plus, a friday edition of trade it or fade it setting the table for next week's earnings reports including disney, pepsico, lyft, lots more. later on, our chart of the week. one of the most crowded trades on the street. but is it now starting to run out of gas hint hint. i went there i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. on the trading desk, tim seymour, courtney garcia, bonnawyn, jeff mills we start with a fade on wall street losing momentum after a much hotter than expected jobs report nasdaq falling a percent and a half five week winning streak, longest since november 2021 right before it hit its all-time high the s&p closed a week higher while the dow, down over 120 points was flat since monday so, how do you make sense of the r

i'm here with melissa lee and mike santoli joe and becky are off. thank you for waking up early.en doing it all week. today is an exciting one, i think. yesterday and now so much stuff happening. a lot to discuss >> the afterglow >> this is the afterglow party u.s. equities this hour experiencing -- i don't know about the afterglow. dow off 46 points. nasdaq 58 points

morning and welcome to bks right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with kelly evans and mike santolibecky are off. it's nice to see everybody i haven't seen you in a very, long time. >> it is early. >> it's early. 6:01 in the morning. we've got a lot to do. about 3 1/2 hours before the market opens let's see where the futures stand as we await. what is the fed going to do? that is really the question. the dow looks like we opened about 147 points nasdaq off about 41 points s&p 500 off by 17 points the s&p 500 rose by 6 opinion 2% and the nasdaq rose by 10.7% but meantime take a look at treasury

a guy who is always uplifting, mike santoli, of course our markets compen tater, a sense of what's going >> i'm only uplifting when everybody else pushing down. let's take a longer term look at the s&p 500 because i do agree that the risks are more top of mind with most people, but the potential rewards. here's a two-year chart of the s&p 500. you see we're kind of right in the middle of where we've been over the last 24 months. as a matter of fact, almost exactly flat from two years ago and the 3900 and change range at the beginning of march in 2020 remember, march of 2021, we were coming off of that blow off top in the speculative parts of the market and kind of more traditional index names carried the way for the remainder of 2021 looks like a routine pullback. we're still in the zone off of the october low and a lot of people pretty pleased with that general setup that we have right here i think a big question you, is the 2022 playbook still in effect take a look at year to date stocks versus bonds because last year we know what happened every time stocks got a little bit hopeful tha

we'll see if that's a longer term base here. >> mike santoli, thank you >>> the crypto rally that kickedr it's starting to see losses, down about 4% right now. bitcoin michael seller telling us crypto is weeding out the irresponsible figures. >> the crypto meltdown was painful in the short term but necessary over the long term for the industry to grow up. this industry has some good ideas, like digital currencies and assets moving at the speed of light that are unstoppable and a digital commodity that can't be debased, and it also has a lot of entrepreneurs that implemented those ideas in an you irresponsible fashion. it needs adult supervision. >> here to discuss how to value crypto companies like coinbase, we're joined by moffettnathason's lisa ellis with a buy rating and 200 price target and dan with an underweight rating and $30 price market this is as bull-bear as it gets. good morning to you both lisa, i'll start with you. 100% since the start of the year too far too fast >> no, i think we're just seeing, you know, look, it will probably settle out a little bit. we've had a big sho

. >> steve kovach, thank you very much for bringing that to us mike santoli is next with his "midday.hter... ...meets trailblazer. ♪ ♪ classic meets modern. ♪ at morgan stanley, we may seem like a contradiction...and we are. ♪ ♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities ♪ and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, ♪ to create new legacies, ♪ to research, innovate, collaborate, ♪ and build the way to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> we are back with our senior markets commentator for his midday word. bullard talks and the market yawns. >> yawns but also waits, obviously for the fed minutes. bullard set the bar at a certain level of hauwkishness, did not meet it today. the market yields have got an little stressed, backing off a little bit looks like yesterday could have been a little bit of a shakeout like that mid december one every time the stock mark

cnbc senior marks commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments and george c.al and meg tirrell on the biotech space i want your opinion on the kolanavik note risk/reward bad. what do you make of that call? >> i think what we've been doing for three weeks is seeing bonds drive more hesitation in stocks so when we precisely have to reconnect at a certain index level that corresponds to where bond yields were i'm not sure. now the idea that we added a projected fed rate hike over the last couple of weeks due to strong data and that somehow stocks should radically reprice according to that, well, i don't know as i pointed out the s&p was at this level last may before we got the last 300, 400 basis points of fed tightening so why are we supposed to radically, you know, go down on another quarter point out in front of us, right, so i don't know that there's a precision way to tune where stocks should be based on the bonds but i also don't think there's a comfortable margin of safety. >> but he would say maybe it's not on each incremental move. >> yes. >> it's the co

to our senior markets commentator mike santoli we've been chatting about the tesla affect on cathie todayla up 700% while ark is flat rescued the performance and everything outside of tesla, a big net negative over the time span overall market, i agree with sara, people are in the sell the rally mode feels like the market tone has gotten a little more damp. three down weeks, the s&p down 4, 5% off its highs. seems pretty contained right now. this is a 2-year look. shows you the final run of that bull market into the high last january. this -- what really takes on the look of a long-term kind of sideways trading range, whether it's a base, something different, is completely in the eye of the beholder. but here's why people are thinking that we're getting to an interesting spot. you see a lot of that. essentially you're at this crossroads 200 day average. people who got bullish in january because you saw the momentum signals, they're kind of waiting for the market to prove there's credence there so far i wouldn't say anything has happened in this market absorbing the yield moves, absorbing

. >> let's bring in mike santoli this is quite a stunning intraday look at the nasdaq and to now the highs of the session, a similar chart. treasuries getting bought. what do you make of this market reaction >> sara, i think the key was during the press conference, jay powell refused multiple opportunities to more directly get hawkish, and essentially call the market out for being too optimistic about a soft landing. he was asked about financial conditions a couple times and said they tightened a fair bit in the last year that's actually not that true. they have loosened up again, but he's not willing to say the markets have it wrong here he also just in general was allowing the economy to prove that a soft landing was possible he was not strident about getting unemployment to a certain eft. he was not suggesting that ongoing future increases is even fully baked. he diplomat really endorse that. he said, we'll figure it out, a new outlook in march all of those taken together, combined with a market expectation that there was at least a chance he would be more aggressive in trying to

come in hot, has only reinforced that point we're down 392 we recovered a tiny bit after the data mike santoliing the losses for the week to 3% for the s&p. >> dialing back to about a four-week low in the s&p 500 we're kind of eating into the cushion that was built up in the january rally and to all of your points the pause, they're coming between rate meetings and fed meetings basically i think the market has been okay with this notion we go a quarter point every six or seven weeks and then not far from the end it keeps getting elongated, this process, and now we have the chance of an accelerated rate hike take a look at a couple measures of the strong consumer as reflected in sectors here. this is the leisure and entertainment etf. looking at that when everyone was waiting for the reopening trade after the covid lockdowns. you seen on a six-month move outperforming on this frame and then you have despite retail, the broader retail sector, which had a huge spurt higher. part of that was amazon having a huge comeback, but also, just a lot of heavily shorted stocksing and the idea that the cons

. >> mike santoli for hanging out all week and waking up early god bless you. we're going to be joined by joe and becky from pebble beach tomorrow morning, so make sure to set your alarm. we'll see you tomorrow morning "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at the new york stock exchange cramer's at the university of miami in florida as part of his college tour futures are steady after wednesday's fed-driven rally data today, pretty constructive. labor costs were light got the two-year yield, 4.05%. news begins with the meta boom >>> plus, fed expectations, delivering its lowest rate increase in nearly a year. disinflation yeah, believe it or not, that is becoming the word of the day from fed chair powell. >>> and we got more layoffs. fedex, rivian, draft kings are among the latest companies announcing cutbacks in their employee ranks >>> let's start with jim, though, and his back-to-school tour in florida. jim, walk us through why you're there. it's a beauti

upside let's bring in cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman, senior markets commentator mike santoli as well steve, i think you're also watching dallas fed. >> lori logan making comments, and talking tough. she is worried about a costly cost sprirl. anticipates they need to keep gradually raising the funtdz rate she says before she's going to stop, conditions need to be restrictive. she says the fed has to be prepared to continue increasing rates for longer than anticipated, and doing less on the other side if that's also necessary. the fed needs to be flexible to tighten further if needed. carl >> mike, let me turn to you. we talked this morning how fed speak would chew on this data point. >> there's certainly no all clear anywhere in sight. with the economy coming in more than their standing forecast i understand the indecisive reaction to the market the stock market is basically chased every twitch in treasury yield since. s&p up 1.1%. yesterday we closed exactly where we were a week ago friday. we made up last week's losses. range bound as we eye what yields have done and whether

good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, mike santolit the new york stock exchange cramer has the morning off premarket really didn't like the macro today. appro ppi comes in hot, up 0.7, although the year on year is a fresh sicycle low. >> lot of fed speak. our road map is going to begin with the murky macro outlook, wholesale prices with that big claim. >>> we've got some pain in media this morning, keeping an eye on shares of paramount, which are going to be down you've got a tough ad sales market, a lot of costs for streaming. $500 million in negative free cash flow, but they say, hey, they're going to turn things around over the course of this year >>> and cisco's strong quarter ceo chuck robbins saying the company is better positioned now than any time in his tenure. he will join us exclusively later in the hour. >>> let's begin with the hotter-than-expected ppi number. it's a lot better than 11, which was the story almost a year ago, but still hotter than the market expected >> yeah, the slope down is not as steep as we have been

fed chair powell this is the make or break hour for your money welcome to "closing bell," i'm mike santolira eisen the s&p 500 has been sitting around this half percent decline most of the day. you see the russell 2000 has got worst of it. down 1.4%. that has been one of the big outperformers going into today the s&p abou