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Sep 19, 2022
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joining us is mike wilson. you expect more pain for the stock market after a pretty brutal week last week? >> yeah. hi, sara it's good to see you i'm going to pick up where mike left off, which is i think his summary was quite good the average stock has taken a lot of pain. we've written about this, which is we think the average stock probably made its low some time this year, maybe in june, maybe before june, but the index is still overvalued that's where probably the majority of the pain will come as, you know, we get the final capitulation, which we think will be driven mostly by the growth i agree with mike's point of view that the bond market has priced most of what the fed is going to do. that's probably as far as you're going to be able to go in this cycle. but the stock market has not because, as you pointed out rightly, the multiple for the s&p 500 is probably two terms too high and that's before the earnings get cut there's more pain for the index, it's going to be idiosyncratic and i think the job of
joining us is mike wilson. you expect more pain for the stock market after a pretty brutal week last week? >> yeah. hi, sara it's good to see you i'm going to pick up where mike left off, which is i think his summary was quite good the average stock has taken a lot of pain. we've written about this, which is we think the average stock probably made its low some time this year, maybe in june, maybe before june, but the index is still overvalued that's where probably the majority of the...
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Sep 6, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson cutting the earnings estimates.e said it could be 3400 on the s&p and we could see that in q4. here is the bond market picture. on friday a lot of people call this the goldilocks jobs report. participation improving. wages softer. robust payrolls growth. we took out some of the front end, up six basis points. the overwhelming takeaway is the fed has more work to do. in the bond market yields have been searching. unwinding some of the moves at the front end. i want to explain things over last month. sterling still weaker for percent. cable at 1.15 right now but yesterday morning 1.15 -- 1.1444. scrape -- citigroup talking 1.5 on cable. the numbers we are talking about , 100 70 billion pounds worth of relief to help energy and businesses and provide relief to consumers. that is about 5% of gdp. tom: absolutely. there is wonderful essay in the financial times driving this, people looking at the real income of fact. i will not give a course. the answer is they blow sterling through parity, which is unimaginable. jonatha
mike wilson cutting the earnings estimates.e said it could be 3400 on the s&p and we could see that in q4. here is the bond market picture. on friday a lot of people call this the goldilocks jobs report. participation improving. wages softer. robust payrolls growth. we took out some of the front end, up six basis points. the overwhelming takeaway is the fed has more work to do. in the bond market yields have been searching. unwinding some of the moves at the front end. i want to explain...
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Sep 16, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson, mike wilson and morgan stanley.e move from the rates shock into the earnings shock and we have talked about whether the headline is the beginning of the story. tom: fedex down 20%. let us do this and let us bring in the -- and let us bring in m&a -- emily wilkins. republican presidents understand the stock market and market in general is a huge political item. do democrats and this president care about the stock market? emily: biden does care. i think we see the stock market, that can go to a lot of different things. what presidents care about our what americans care about which is how much money are they spending, are they spending more money than taking in and are the raises matching up with inflation and that is not the case. democrats know that it is a problem. the cpi numbers are not good. they have been trying to talk -- they have been trying to avoid it by talking about unemployment and low gas prices. any help that they had that we would see inflation come down really seems to be slipping away at this point.
mike wilson, mike wilson and morgan stanley.e move from the rates shock into the earnings shock and we have talked about whether the headline is the beginning of the story. tom: fedex down 20%. let us do this and let us bring in the -- and let us bring in m&a -- emily wilkins. republican presidents understand the stock market and market in general is a huge political item. do democrats and this president care about the stock market? emily: biden does care. i think we see the stock market,...
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Sep 1, 2022
09/22
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tom: that was morgan stanley's mike wilson, saying he expects more pain ahead.will be an ugly month for returns across asset classes. let's bring in abigail doolittle. what really stood out for you? we have the lineup for that biggest drop since 1981, the month of august. the pain point, where is it most acute? abigail: what stands out most to me about august is that we came into it on the heels of this big rally. there is this idea and may not have been a bear market rally, but the bottom had been found in june. here, you see the month of august, not so much. that is probably the biggest thing, that reversal we saw. it took the s&p 500 about 5%, the worst month since june. down sharply on the year. commodities at the little bit. you had oil, gold, and silver down, but natural gas up 11%, corn up. you're talking about that cross asset move. simply stunning. up more than 0.5 percent, 63 basis points in a month. that shows you the degree of bond trading after that july meeting, when they were expecting some sort of pitted into the jackson hole summit symposium, wh
tom: that was morgan stanley's mike wilson, saying he expects more pain ahead.will be an ugly month for returns across asset classes. let's bring in abigail doolittle. what really stood out for you? we have the lineup for that biggest drop since 1981, the month of august. the pain point, where is it most acute? abigail: what stands out most to me about august is that we came into it on the heels of this big rally. there is this idea and may not have been a bear market rally, but the bottom had...
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Sep 21, 2022
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how about a switch from the fed to the stock market with mike wilson coming up. ot of mystery. jonathan: mike has got it right, dead on. now, look for the earnings concern. we are starting to see that with companies like fedex. >> what i notice is the bloomberg total return index. new lows breaching what we have seen. the bloomberg index down 17% from the peak. there is nowhere to hide. jonathan: looking for close to 5%. the high yield going somewhere close. waiting to be patient, waiting for a recession. tom: i said who is that woman? lisa, expert on the spread market. lisa, the spread market always says so much. what is it saying this morning? lisa: it is just getting around the edges without getting carried away and there is pricing in because it is still far below some of the hype of the other times when we see not only rate hiking, but also credit fears. when does this process go directly to mike wilson? we've seen that play out in certain equities. jp morgan asset management. jonathan: the equity research in investment. the bond market has spoken recently. r
how about a switch from the fed to the stock market with mike wilson coming up. ot of mystery. jonathan: mike has got it right, dead on. now, look for the earnings concern. we are starting to see that with companies like fedex. >> what i notice is the bloomberg total return index. new lows breaching what we have seen. the bloomberg index down 17% from the peak. there is nowhere to hide. jonathan: looking for close to 5%. the high yield going somewhere close. waiting to be patient, waiting...
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liz: yeah, mike wilson of course not a little one in the world of finance.her are you, scott and kenny. we live among giants. gentlemen, thank you so much. one-half of the men's semifinals now filled in at the u.s. open tennis championship. last night karon acing out controversial australian in five sets. kireos taking it out on his racket after the post game. look at that. guess what? how many rackets did he smash? no, he did not stop at one. we've got that straight ahead. elon musk may want to smash something of his own today after a judge's ruling in the case against twitter. details on all the courtroom drama and there's a lot developing at this hour straight ahead. closing bell, 36 minutes away and we're still looking at 443 point gain for the dow and nasdaq is the biggest percentage gainer up 2.25% and 253 points to the upside. don't move, we're coming right back. ♪ liz: owe lon musk and his lawsuit against exiter. the delaware chancery court. she's deny that had tesla ceo's request to delay his trial against twitter over the $44 billion acquisition de
liz: yeah, mike wilson of course not a little one in the world of finance.her are you, scott and kenny. we live among giants. gentlemen, thank you so much. one-half of the men's semifinals now filled in at the u.s. open tennis championship. last night karon acing out controversial australian in five sets. kireos taking it out on his racket after the post game. look at that. guess what? how many rackets did he smash? no, he did not stop at one. we've got that straight ahead. elon musk may want...
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Sep 6, 2022
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directionally we know where things are headed. >> steph, directionally, mike wilson goes onto suggest that we think the lows for this bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter, 3400 is the minimum downside he thinks 3,000 is the low if you get a recession in the fourth quarter. or if the market starts to really sniff out, the market is going to sniff anything out along before the actual knock on the door. >> i think they already are starting to sniff it out we've been in a trading -- we have all of these unknowns we don't know how it's going to work out. >> you had that soft landing come back into focus on friday with the jobs report. >> well, i don't know if it's a soft landing -- >> who is saying that? >> i'm not giving the fed that much credit. they have a rough history of a soft landing we're slowing, but we're not in a recession. at the same time, the fed is aggressive so many of them said it at jackson hole and so that's what the market is trying to deal with, how much do we slow, how fast, how deep is the recession? 2023, i told you, i think we're going to be in a re
directionally we know where things are headed. >> steph, directionally, mike wilson goes onto suggest that we think the lows for this bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter, 3400 is the minimum downside he thinks 3,000 is the low if you get a recession in the fourth quarter. or if the market starts to really sniff out, the market is going to sniff anything out along before the actual knock on the door. >> i think they already are starting to sniff it out we've been in...
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Sep 16, 2022
09/22
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this is also weighing on ups and it is worth noting that joining mike wilson on the bearish call thathe s&p 500 drops 20%. goldman also talking about bearish miss -- bearishness. jonathan: that drop on fedex down 22%, the biggest one-day drop going back to 1980. lisa: $11 billion of market cap. jonathan: fedex down and down hard. equities down, yields up. >> down 1.5 percent on the nasdaq 100 with the stronger dollar and the push hiring yields. this showing the relationship between the nasdaq 100 and real yields. you and i tracking the move on the two-year and the policy sensitive end of the curve. there seems to be a relationship with tech around the week. the selloff in tech shares is also mega caps with microsoft and google, also -- often considered holds with the strength of their balance sheets, year-to-date down collectively 3.2 trillion dollars worth of market cap. you also think of amazon impacted overnight with fedex because they are suffering the same cost pressures. with the impression print we got early in the week, not just because the discount future profits but what doe
this is also weighing on ups and it is worth noting that joining mike wilson on the bearish call thathe s&p 500 drops 20%. goldman also talking about bearish miss -- bearishness. jonathan: that drop on fedex down 22%, the biggest one-day drop going back to 1980. lisa: $11 billion of market cap. jonathan: fedex down and down hard. equities down, yields up. >> down 1.5 percent on the nasdaq 100 with the stronger dollar and the push hiring yields. this showing the relationship between...
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Sep 6, 2022
09/22
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one of the good calls on the year, mike wilson at morgan stanley has gotten more bearish today.aying the s&p 500 could go somewhere between 3000 3400, he is taking his earnings estimates for the s&p 500. we are going to see the new 2022 estimates, down from 225. not a huge down, but you could see the likelihood or the thought that comes to mind for me, this could be the beginning of a trend for other strategists bringing down the s&p overall index earning estimates. that makes valuation more rich, suggesting it could go down. this is the trend, the church -- the 13th down week in a row, earnings estimates coming in tracked by city. not a bullish start, not the first full week of the term, that will be next week. not a bullish start, we are looking at possibly another down week for stock. guy: wait until september, that is my take away. thank you. let's talk about the crude market, crude is down sharply. post opec rally soaring in a big way. allies agreed to 100,000 barrel a day cuts. the signal is important. here with merle or -- more is anthony di paola, he joins us from dubai.
one of the good calls on the year, mike wilson at morgan stanley has gotten more bearish today.aying the s&p 500 could go somewhere between 3000 3400, he is taking his earnings estimates for the s&p 500. we are going to see the new 2022 estimates, down from 225. not a huge down, but you could see the likelihood or the thought that comes to mind for me, this could be the beginning of a trend for other strategists bringing down the s&p overall index earning estimates. that makes...
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Sep 6, 2022
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mike wilson has been very current, he's more or less been correct in terms of the valuation compression, rates going higher, inflation being an issue, he was early on that, and the big question is do earnings have to succumb. >> been the question question for a long time. those allocators of capitol who have chosen to raise capital over the last few months and watch while we have that significant bear market rally hung in there and perhaps they're going to end up proving right with that basic thesis being that come the fall which we are now unfortunately moving into, we're going to start to see significant revisions in terms of earnings which obviously wilson is making the case for >> absolutely. he's been reluctant, outside of energy, you're projecting a slight decline in earnings for the year in the s&p 500. i mean, it's minimal he makes the point that analysts and companies have been very, very hesitant to do the big things you talk about 4x and little moderation in demand and that's been the case. based on the concentration in earnings power, you need to see numbers come down in a b
mike wilson has been very current, he's more or less been correct in terms of the valuation compression, rates going higher, inflation being an issue, he was early on that, and the big question is do earnings have to succumb. >> been the question question for a long time. those allocators of capitol who have chosen to raise capital over the last few months and watch while we have that significant bear market rally hung in there and perhaps they're going to end up proving right with that...
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Sep 26, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson is going to join us to discuss his latest note to clients and his outlook for the reminderorning's winners and losers in the s&p 50 quk x"ill be right back. >>> new this morning, tropical storm ian has strengthened to a hurricane. it's expected to strengthen significantly as it approaches the state. governor ron desantis has declared a state of emergency and urged residents to prepare for heavy rains and rising seas. forecasters are unsure of where it could make landfall florida produces more than 70% of the nation's supply of citrus and right now let's take a look at the price of oj, sitting at three-year highs. >> oj futures trading places >>> still to come, a very youthful-looking mike wilson on this shot here is going to join us to dig through the recent market volatility. i use a really ancient headshot too. >> so when you come on, it's a surprise. >> no. looking out from here, i feel like i look like that head shot until i see something real that's my story. i like that. >>> plus, we're going to try to take an early victory lap. although he has not won under anyone's
mike wilson is going to join us to discuss his latest note to clients and his outlook for the reminderorning's winners and losers in the s&p 50 quk x"ill be right back. >>> new this morning, tropical storm ian has strengthened to a hurricane. it's expected to strengthen significantly as it approaches the state. governor ron desantis has declared a state of emergency and urged residents to prepare for heavy rains and rising seas. forecasters are unsure of where it could make...
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Sep 23, 2022
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that is a target mike wilson has been talking about for quite some time.rms of bringing earning estimates in. this is the biggest area of volatility. this is incredible. fx, currencies is the one nation all asset classes. on the week for the bloomberg dollar index, up to percent. dixie, up 2.4%. weakness for the euro, when you throw in the pound and we have that plan today that is going to create bringing the pound down as the government is going to need to borrow and borrow and borrow to support that plan. i am talking about parity with the pound. we have seen that for the euro. this growth pair of the hue we versus the, this speaks to yen strength, to the dollar. count 2%. that is the kind of risk off. when we put it altogether, it is an interesting picture. as we take a look at the vix, you would think would be sky high. vix relative to the bond index, that move index and currency volatility, this was march of 2020. all were way high. now, we are looking at the currency index. both very high. there is the vix, it suggests -- if you were talking to the e
that is a target mike wilson has been talking about for quite some time.rms of bringing earning estimates in. this is the biggest area of volatility. this is incredible. fx, currencies is the one nation all asset classes. on the week for the bloomberg dollar index, up to percent. dixie, up 2.4%. weakness for the euro, when you throw in the pound and we have that plan today that is going to create bringing the pound down as the government is going to need to borrow and borrow and borrow to...
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Sep 22, 2022
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take a look at the 10 year -- the s&p 500 heading lower, all you can think about is mike wilson's call000 or 3400. this is a one year year today chart is a factor of mortgage rates at the highest since 2008 well above 6%. it's part of the housing markets big decline. housing might have to go into a recession. and then finally taking a look at some of the movers on the day. a little bit messy a little bit mixed. their main restaurant not doing so good. they maintain the outlook but nonetheless you can see weakness across the board. guy: absolutely. i watering numbers. abigail thank you very much. big rally tonight, a joint rally taking place of the italian right. you've got them coming together for the final big rally ahead of this weekend's election. another threat we need to factor into these markets. how well does this new government in italy play well with brussels? alix: you have to wonder if the ecb is a ready tamping down yields on the back end for italy based on the potential for some serious political risk coming into this. guy: it's been doing it for the last few weeks. the t
take a look at the 10 year -- the s&p 500 heading lower, all you can think about is mike wilson's call000 or 3400. this is a one year year today chart is a factor of mortgage rates at the highest since 2008 well above 6%. it's part of the housing markets big decline. housing might have to go into a recession. and then finally taking a look at some of the movers on the day. a little bit messy a little bit mixed. their main restaurant not doing so good. they maintain the outlook but...
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Sep 26, 2022
09/22
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goldman's david costen saying, our year-end target is 3,600 but 3,150 would be their bottom level and mike wilsonanother monday morning victory lap literally writes, can you hear me now it appears investors have finally gotten the message with a pivot undeniably off the table. still looking for a range of 3,000 to 3,400 >> pivot undeniably off the table right now and it's all contingent on the next series of inflation numbers. the market -- whether it's been told and believed it or not, if you start to see downward trajectory in the inflation data itself, the market's going to try to attempt to say, we can see the end of where the fed's going. now, that doesn't mean it's going to be right but i think it's going to attempt that trade again. >> it's interesting because we've been having that conversation and certainly this idea that inflation data is a willing indicator, interesting note of sgh macro-investors last night, especially tim, he noted that fed leadership is going to be focused solely on price straight right now and the data now is likely to reinforce that focus, and he actually stripped
goldman's david costen saying, our year-end target is 3,600 but 3,150 would be their bottom level and mike wilsonanother monday morning victory lap literally writes, can you hear me now it appears investors have finally gotten the message with a pivot undeniably off the table. still looking for a range of 3,000 to 3,400 >> pivot undeniably off the table right now and it's all contingent on the next series of inflation numbers. the market -- whether it's been told and believed it or not,...
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Sep 26, 2022
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. >> yeah, morgan stanley's note today, mike wilson, who has been of course directionally bearish over the past several quarters literally writes in the note today, can you hear me now his note is it's taken time and much more simple language from the fed, but clearly beginning to figure out that the fed is serious about bringing inflation down. >> pain, one syllable, four letters. >> exactly let's get to dom chu in the half. >> thank you very much welcome to the half time report. it's the last week of a volatile month and quarter as well. stocks re-testing their june lows how much lower can this market go from here are we close to a bottom maybe that's in sight. it's been in sight for a while we'll debate that and what to do with your money coming up next our investment committee today is joining me, and joining me on set the jim labenthal. th
. >> yeah, morgan stanley's note today, mike wilson, who has been of course directionally bearish over the past several quarters literally writes in the note today, can you hear me now his note is it's taken time and much more simple language from the fed, but clearly beginning to figure out that the fed is serious about bringing inflation down. >> pain, one syllable, four letters. >> exactly let's get to dom chu in the half. >> thank you very much welcome to the half...
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Sep 1, 2022
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tom: best performance this summer, mike wilson.ockmarkets. he has done a great job, we will see where he stands at the end of the quarter. features -21, anna edwards in for bramo. jon is off trying to get ready for the 9:00 show. kriti, what do you have? kriti: weakness in the japanese yen hitting a 24 year low, weakness on the yuan. i am looking at the korean won, the key third player when you look at that trifecta. this is important when we talk about trade coming out of the asia-pacific and the story on chips. we know the chips export out of south korea have dropped year over that is not good given the momentum we are seeing in the demand space. my chart of the day looks at the dollar versus the korean yuan. record weakness going back to levels in the global financial crisis and the asian financial crisis, not looking good for those who want to buy chips. tom: off the script to talk to anna edwards earlier about truss. the moment in hand away from the united states of america is emerging markets, burying in the headlines of a bu
tom: best performance this summer, mike wilson.ockmarkets. he has done a great job, we will see where he stands at the end of the quarter. features -21, anna edwards in for bramo. jon is off trying to get ready for the 9:00 show. kriti, what do you have? kriti: weakness in the japanese yen hitting a 24 year low, weakness on the yuan. i am looking at the korean won, the key third player when you look at that trifecta. this is important when we talk about trade coming out of the asia-pacific and...
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Sep 27, 2022
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stock markets are a pawn and we're trying to find out individual names and really it comes down to mike wilson who comes on the show for morgan stanley they're coming down year-over-year, i think 9% growth was expected and now consensus about 7.5% you tell me what right multiple is in a recessionary environment and we haven't hit the recession yet. and do you want put 14, 15 times and he has $2 -- or 212 in earnings for next year and you get below 3,200 and that is not far from guy's level so nothing is going in a straight line and the c word is a dangerous word especially this time of the year i don't think we go down there like that with a crash >> i didn't know >> no, you made me say it. i don't want to say it i don't want the headline to be that but it is one step forward, two steps back in bear markets like this. >> and the c word could be double c or c squared and constant currency and all we hear about is the dollar but in constant currency terms what will they cut. we know the dollar has been a beast and is certainly a major head wind and i think that at some point becomes a tail wind
stock markets are a pawn and we're trying to find out individual names and really it comes down to mike wilson who comes on the show for morgan stanley they're coming down year-over-year, i think 9% growth was expected and now consensus about 7.5% you tell me what right multiple is in a recessionary environment and we haven't hit the recession yet. and do you want put 14, 15 times and he has $2 -- or 212 in earnings for next year and you get below 3,200 and that is not far from guy's level so...
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Sep 6, 2022
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. >> i think some of the bears, i was reading mike wilson at morgan stanley, who has been pretty bearish that earnings expectations still have not moved lower enough to reflect the weakening fundamentals we will get if the fed raises rates on the other side the economy appears to be picking up steam or hold something momentum here despite the interest rate hikes. >> you can't disprove the idea that earnings have downside risk given we've seen slowing and given what's gone on, profit margins being pressured. more than two-thirds of the way through the third quarter, it's not as if the economic performance we can observe in the u.s. is something that would necessarily cause earnings to collapse for the third quarter yes, it always is a question of what the outlooks are going to be, we hear about the corporate conference schedule going on right now and whether that's going to be some land mines coming out of that, but i do think it's a good debate at this point. i also find it interesting that people are comfortable feeling as if, sure, there will be a year-end rally, but you get chance to
. >> i think some of the bears, i was reading mike wilson at morgan stanley, who has been pretty bearish that earnings expectations still have not moved lower enough to reflect the weakening fundamentals we will get if the fed raises rates on the other side the economy appears to be picking up steam or hold something momentum here despite the interest rate hikes. >> you can't disprove the idea that earnings have downside risk given we've seen slowing and given what's gone on, profit...
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Sep 19, 2022
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one thing i thought, not to give myself too much credit, but i did have mike wilson of morgan stanley on the show who was -- -- >> did you get him bullish finally? if you did, big applause. >> he walked back his bearish call little bit. he still expecting the s&p to go down to 3,000, test that low and come up. he said i don't think we're going have a very deep recession. he said i think yields have topped out here. he just expects more pain in the stock market because it's not reflecting the recession and the fact that earnings are going to have to come down. i thought that was actually sounded a little more bullish. >> yes so i think the reason why the market is rallying is all traders, what we keep doing is saying okay, we saw fed ex have a blowup last week so is that going to change powell's mind? so we keep grasping on this pivot. even though we know the pivot is not happening. so what we're looking for, should be realistic is say maybe we could have a pace pivot where he can say, okay, it's not going 75 to 100 basis points we're going cut that back 50 to 25 that should be the lig
one thing i thought, not to give myself too much credit, but i did have mike wilson of morgan stanley on the show who was -- -- >> did you get him bullish finally? if you did, big applause. >> he walked back his bearish call little bit. he still expecting the s&p to go down to 3,000, test that low and come up. he said i don't think we're going have a very deep recession. he said i think yields have topped out here. he just expects more pain in the stock market because it's not...
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Sep 13, 2022
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jonathan: you mentioned mike wilson, that means we got umoja -- mention jp morgan.data. what do you make of that? lisa: he can laugh because he is a perpetual bull. i am perpetually bearish in my outlook. i mean, it is not that i am bearish -- jonathan: realistic. lisa: i am realistic with a little bit of skepticism. moving on, the point is really about the soft landing, it is not just him. jonathan: it is never about whether things are good or bad for markets, it is about whether they are better or worse. lisa: and it is multifaceted. it is airplane tickets. it is cars. now the question is services. tom: socially looking into all this mumbo-jumbo, it is oer. that is a huge part. jonathan: i love that viewers know what we are talking about. tom: i'm frontloading it to get out in front of whatever comes our way. jonathan: the chief investment strategist during this now. scott, what are you looking for? scott: i think we are going to get further evidence that inflation actually peaked in june. what is really important are the ingredients more so than the headline. we
jonathan: you mentioned mike wilson, that means we got umoja -- mention jp morgan.data. what do you make of that? lisa: he can laugh because he is a perpetual bull. i am perpetually bearish in my outlook. i mean, it is not that i am bearish -- jonathan: realistic. lisa: i am realistic with a little bit of skepticism. moving on, the point is really about the soft landing, it is not just him. jonathan: it is never about whether things are good or bad for markets, it is about whether they are...
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Sep 30, 2022
09/22
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at morgan stanley, i know you speak to mike wilson, our chief investment strategist and our cio veryh would put the forward pe multiple on this market upwards of 17. that's still not super cheap to us we need confessional season to play out and to rebase the earnings forecast. >> jeff, that's interesting, 212. i mean, the bond market got religion on rates. do you think strategists get religion on earnings >> i do. you know, we've heard a number of warnings, as you've talked about. we're going to get a number of those going through this season. not only do we have the downward pressure of these rate hikes but we have inventory gluts just about everywhere, even in the chip supply chain. there's a number of problems coming up around the world one of the ways we've been focusing on how to invest in this recessionary bear market with earnings likely to come down, i think you want to focus on high dividend paying stocks generally a sizeable dividend is a sign of good cash flow high dividend paying stocks have been outperformed all year they have outperformed in every recessionary bear mark
at morgan stanley, i know you speak to mike wilson, our chief investment strategist and our cio veryh would put the forward pe multiple on this market upwards of 17. that's still not super cheap to us we need confessional season to play out and to rebase the earnings forecast. >> jeff, that's interesting, 212. i mean, the bond market got religion on rates. do you think strategists get religion on earnings >> i do. you know, we've heard a number of warnings, as you've talked about....
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Sep 27, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson of morgan stanley. we will break down this equity market with him at 9:30 eastern time. catch up with luke if he still wants to join us. sterling-denominated assets. lisa: can i just bring this to you? there was a story today on bloomberg talking about how electric blankets, the sales of them are surging in the united kingdom. jonathan: that is no joke, is it? lisa: no joke. people are preparing for less heat and saving money on those bills. jonathan: we can joke about some of this news, but that is no joke. europe is going to a very difficult winter. the nord stream 1 down, no hope for some people that it comes back online. lisa: how do you have conviction and how is this going to play out? tom: i want you to watch. jonathan: is that bloomberg surveillance? tom: it is. lisa: what is that gif? hey kids, how is it going? jonathan: that is insulting to gen z, isn't it? good marketing. futures positive from new york. this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, hurricane ian has turned into a powerful category three storm as it takes aim
mike wilson of morgan stanley. we will break down this equity market with him at 9:30 eastern time. catch up with luke if he still wants to join us. sterling-denominated assets. lisa: can i just bring this to you? there was a story today on bloomberg talking about how electric blankets, the sales of them are surging in the united kingdom. jonathan: that is no joke, is it? lisa: no joke. people are preparing for less heat and saving money on those bills. jonathan: we can joke about some of this...
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Sep 26, 2022
09/22
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this from mike wilson of morgan stanley this morning. it is a quote on the u.s. dollar. reason moves create an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or non-prices, or both. a rolling year-over-year chart of the u.s. dollar, up something like 20% or so in the last year. different crazies over the last few decades. tom: we lived this with ecuador and a bunch of south american economies. all i can say is we are becoming overcome by events. we are committed and not just showing you how sterling, this is much more -- on the nasdaq, yields are high by eight basis points on the 10 year 3.7 6% on a u.s. tenure. live from new york city with tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> uncertainty really is approaching those critical levels. >> the uncertainty is something that just continues to weigh on markets. >> the fed message is clear that they cannot and will not wait for the price side to move favorably so they are acting aggressively now. >> it becomes clear that the labor mar
this from mike wilson of morgan stanley this morning. it is a quote on the u.s. dollar. reason moves create an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or non-prices, or both. a rolling year-over-year chart of the u.s. dollar, up something like 20% or so in the last year. different crazies over the last few decades. tom: we lived this with ecuador and a bunch of south american economies. all i can say is we are becoming overcome by events. we are committed...
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Sep 30, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson was talking about where we are in different economic cycles, the stock market as a forward-lookingnstrument. 2024 could potentially be better than 2023. tom: --mentioned the huge liquor complex of the united income. from sterling, a high of down 6%. dollar from a high down 23%, that shows the distortions we have upcoming starting october 1. jonathan: we have got to reflect on that intervention we had the last couple of months. the ecb earlier in the summer, facing down the prospect of hiking interest rates and had to do something about containing bond yields. we are seeing that play out in the u.k. this week. the boj has had to intervene in the fx market. china is threatening to do the same. we have got to restart and think about what this cycle is going to look at -- look like. does it involve qt? lisa: will it involve quantitative easing? bullet leave certain bonds trying to hike rates? we have shifted from tightening into pain, tightening into a weaker economic cycle. to trying to spend, do fiscal spending to support households while also tightening to combat inflation. we have
mike wilson was talking about where we are in different economic cycles, the stock market as a forward-lookingnstrument. 2024 could potentially be better than 2023. tom: --mentioned the huge liquor complex of the united income. from sterling, a high of down 6%. dollar from a high down 23%, that shows the distortions we have upcoming starting october 1. jonathan: we have got to reflect on that intervention we had the last couple of months. the ecb earlier in the summer, facing down the prospect...
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Sep 20, 2022
09/22
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of companies are coming out with warnings that people were not expecting it feeds more into the mike wilson view of things. jonathan: real yields on a 10 year, going back to 2011 this morning that is where your competition comes from now for the equity market and elsewhere. lisa: well-phrased. all of a sudden you can get yields. there is an alternative. at what point do people say i would rather get a 4% base rate and going to risk assets. net how much does that continue to confirm the jp morgan asset management view? that basically has cash. jonathan: i will catch up with michael later on. nominal and real yields at multi-year highs. on the nasdaq we are down about .7talked about how much higher yields are, by four or five basis points. and euro-dollar just about holding onto parity again. lisa: i'm watching japanese yen too, because tomorrow is the bank of japan meeting and that is the one holdout in the negative rates universe. today august housing starts and building permits. in this builds on what we saw yesterday in terms of homebuilders sentiment we have seen the longest consecutive
of companies are coming out with warnings that people were not expecting it feeds more into the mike wilson view of things. jonathan: real yields on a 10 year, going back to 2011 this morning that is where your competition comes from now for the equity market and elsewhere. lisa: well-phrased. all of a sudden you can get yields. there is an alternative. at what point do people say i would rather get a 4% base rate and going to risk assets. net how much does that continue to confirm the jp...
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Sep 27, 2022
09/22
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mike wilson, 3,000 everybody else 3,200 i'm still holding out. the intraday low on june 16th was 3,639. where did we close yesterday 3,655. we're right there. i would say we're testing the lows what do we call breaching the lows i would say -- would you say 3,500 breaches the lows in a meaningful way >> it breaches the low we have to get katie stockton back we might be breaching 3,200 or more >> we do need to i'm holding out hope the back drop has gotten uglier in terms of the fed -- >> the global picture. >> i'm worried about the fed, andrew pendulums do swing and they stay too long easy. is it possible they make the same mistake the other way and not realize they have already done enough and go too far >> you are making the barry sternlicht debate. i don't know if we're there yet. i don't know >> would that be fitting to transitory, transitory, transitory oh, my god we were wrong. tight, tight, tight. we'll lick this. oh, my god what do we do? per perfect symmetry >> it is not just tightening in the u.s., one reason the move lower and this is p
mike wilson, 3,000 everybody else 3,200 i'm still holding out. the intraday low on june 16th was 3,639. where did we close yesterday 3,655. we're right there. i would say we're testing the lows what do we call breaching the lows i would say -- would you say 3,500 breaches the lows in a meaningful way >> it breaches the low we have to get katie stockton back we might be breaching 3,200 or more >> we do need to i'm holding out hope the back drop has gotten uglier in terms of the fed...
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Sep 17, 2022
09/22
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mike brown. you can you can read darren wilson's jury tests, grand jury testimony, and hear him refer to it. mike, is it in how he was? look? he was walking through the bullets and all this crazy stuff, you know what i mean? but you don't watch this executed had the power of a still photo because it didn't move. that knee didn't move. but it was the the rawness of live video. so you had to sit with that. some of it was was a pandemic. we were sitting there doing a pandemic. we were whole. we were angry. we were poor. we were frustrated. we were tired. we'd already heard about my arbery. we just watched christian cooper harassed in central park for bird watching is a harvard educated black man. bird watching central park on memorial day that in a safe brother and even he got harassed and the whiteness was weaponized. so all this stuff plays an image. and then the last thing i said i would pass the time is there's also a way that america has a very low threshold for this kind of stuff, right? white america is only going be outraged about black death, but for so long after ferguson, we started b
mike brown. you can you can read darren wilson's jury tests, grand jury testimony, and hear him refer to it. mike, is it in how he was? look? he was walking through the bullets and all this crazy stuff, you know what i mean? but you don't watch this executed had the power of a still photo because it didn't move. that knee didn't move. but it was the the rawness of live video. so you had to sit with that. some of it was was a pandemic. we were sitting there doing a pandemic. we were whole. we...
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Sep 6, 2022
09/22
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wilson walker followed followed along as they made sure sure the most vulnerable, they are surviving. >> we delivered on stormy days when the wind is blowing and ran is coming down. >> reporter: mike tammy are a little bit like the postal service. nothing stops them. >> we know all the recipients on on the route. >> reporter: while the food is important, making contact is ofn more critical. especially in the the heat. >> it is to make sure they are not looking tired and they are staying hydrated. >> i was wondering how you are doing. i know it is hot out there. >> we are going to check in on n elderly resident. >> reporter: she is with alameda with alameda friendly visitors. >> i am hot. >> reporter: she gives seniors e joyce anderson a chance to talk about family and the heat. >> that is what i was doing. i put it on my face and said why bring it out. >> i have my doors open for the breeze. it is so hot. >> with every visit and delivery and delivery there was plenty of of gratitude for the help and concern. >> i am very grateful and i appreciate them coming. i don't see too many people. >> it is important to be checkig in on elderly relatives and neighbors. especially if you knw
wilson walker followed followed along as they made sure sure the most vulnerable, they are surviving. >> we delivered on stormy days when the wind is blowing and ran is coming down. >> reporter: mike tammy are a little bit like the postal service. nothing stops them. >> we know all the recipients on on the route. >> reporter: while the food is important, making contact is ofn more critical. especially in the the heat. >> it is to make sure they are not looking...
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Sep 22, 2022
09/22
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wilson. jose sharks began training camp today the team underwent a major overhaul after failing to make the playoffs of the past three seasons. former player mikeblack general manager in nhl history. he then hired david quinn as head coach in july. training camp is at sharks ice on south 10th street practice runs through the 30th and are open to the public. the first preseason game is this sunday against the los angeles kings. oakland a's fan favorite john vote, is retiring after 10 seasons in the major leagues. his early career was characterized by patients and long waits. he didn't make the big leagues until he was 27 after an o for 30 to hitler street to start his career. he waited nearly 15 months to get his first hit the spot early struggles. the journeyman became a two time all star and a fan favorite, too. these announced they will celebrate him on october 5th during their final season or their season finale. barry a. baseball fans hope northern california roots will encourage new york yankee star aaron judge to sign with the giants this offseason judges just one home run shy of the american league single season record of 61. he grew up
wilson. jose sharks began training camp today the team underwent a major overhaul after failing to make the playoffs of the past three seasons. former player mikeblack general manager in nhl history. he then hired david quinn as head coach in july. training camp is at sharks ice on south 10th street practice runs through the 30th and are open to the public. the first preseason game is this sunday against the los angeles kings. oakland a's fan favorite john vote, is retiring after 10 seasons in...
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Sep 1, 2022
09/22
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wilson and helen here in taft and florence harding all very powerful first ladies. so grace benefited from that. there is a blowback though, isn't there on this accountability and mike dean elected for the first ladies who come after a first lady who's perceived his powerful whether they want to cut back or not. i think they feel the pressure from the public to do that. we have a question here. yes, i've heard edith wilson referred to as our first female president, and i'm also surprised in this discussion that you haven't mentioned eleanor roosevelt, but that's not my question. my question is political writers and pundits are very free about ranking our best president in our worst presidents, and i wonder if you would go so far as to maybe talk about who are our good first. ladies and who were our worst and i know a lot of people get that. they're not elected. they're thrust into the position and some people rise to the occasion and some don't but i just wonder if you would be involved in ranking or judge that this audience likes trouble. it's a project to work on to be sure i didn't want to take the chairs prerogative, but i will speak about eleanor roosevelt. any
wilson and helen here in taft and florence harding all very powerful first ladies. so grace benefited from that. there is a blowback though, isn't there on this accountability and mike dean elected for the first ladies who come after a first lady who's perceived his powerful whether they want to cut back or not. i think they feel the pressure from the public to do that. we have a question here. yes, i've heard edith wilson referred to as our first female president, and i'm also surprised in...
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Sep 22, 2022
09/22
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wilson. san jose sharks begin training camp this morning, the team underwent a major overhaul after failing to make the playoffs of the past three seasons. former player miker, is not the general manager. he then hired david queen as head coach. training camp is at sharks ice on south 10th street practice run through his next friday and are open to the public. the first preseason game is this sunday against the los angeles kings. time now is 88 and this morning's commute has been better than yesterday. that's for sure. yesterday we had that wet weather today it is dry and we've been seeing the effect. the positive effect of that we've had slowdowns. of course, that's not unusual, but we also do have better conditions when it comes to crashes. and stalled vehicles. 8 80 is a little slow driving past the coliseum and stays await that that that way to downtown open. really the busiest committee right now is the silicon valley commute to 80 northbound is slow. we also have some slowing on one. oh, one all getting up to sunnyvale and cupertino. let me bring in how we wanna one here that's getting a little better as you drive towards the airport. but just rememb
wilson. san jose sharks begin training camp this morning, the team underwent a major overhaul after failing to make the playoffs of the past three seasons. former player miker, is not the general manager. he then hired david queen as head coach. training camp is at sharks ice on south 10th street practice run through his next friday and are open to the public. the first preseason game is this sunday against the los angeles kings. time now is 88 and this morning's commute has been better than...
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Sep 9, 2022
09/22
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wilson was labor prime minister of britain. it was the one period where britain didn't fight alongside america in a war, the vietnam war. >> yeah. we have lord meacham still with us and mike have a question for lord meacham. >> yes, i do. honor to have him here. >> uh-huh. >> jon, before we let you go, it strikes me, yesterday, today, and will for a while, that we have a woman that we're talking about who presided over a government for 70 years. she did her duty dearly, literally, dearly for over 25,000 days in her reign. we have no match for that. i'm wondering, if you look at her life and the way she behaved on the world stage, she was reliable, she was responsible, she never embarrassed herself or her government, there's something that is always missing in american politics when you compare the way we behave politically to this formidable woman of history. >> i think the one lesson for us is what was she devoted to? she was devoted to an unwritten constitution that was, for all of its imperfections, was, in fact, founded on the rights of the individual. the declaration of rights in the late 17th century. we had our declaration of independence, but our declaration of in
wilson was labor prime minister of britain. it was the one period where britain didn't fight alongside america in a war, the vietnam war. >> yeah. we have lord meacham still with us and mike have a question for lord meacham. >> yes, i do. honor to have him here. >> uh-huh. >> jon, before we let you go, it strikes me, yesterday, today, and will for a while, that we have a woman that we're talking about who presided over a government for 70 years. she did her duty dearly,...