new models from moody's an lit is.dy's one of the most of accurate in these models amongst the most of accurate. shows president trump crucial to reelection in 2020. moody's basing its projections on how consumers feel about their own situation. the prospects of employment in this country and unemployment which has fallen to a 53-year low. moody's shows president trump winning between 289 and 251 electoral votes. all of this by the way built on amongst other evidence this the median income for an average income family gaining more than under president trump $5,000 in just over almost three years. that's by the way you might note about 5 times what happened under obama. well, you don't even think about the factor for george w. bush. both of course had 8 years in office. joining us tonight, former reagan white house political director, ed rollins. it's fascinating to see the way -- before we get to the democrats, i'm going to turn to the rinos in the republican party and the arrogant absolutely obnoxious the tude many of

moody's an lit i can i -- an l o better than he did against hillary clinton. i wonder if she is not making any predictions. >> i'm not making any predictions but i think they have their eye on somebody in the democratic primary and are grooming her to be a third party candidate. she is a favorite of the russians. she have a bunch of sites and bots and other ways of supporting her so far. that's assuming jiggle stein will give it up but she may not because she is also a russian asset. greg: holy [bleep]. i'm assuming it's use hillary is calling a russian asset. cnn and the "new york times" are saying the same thing. the democrats and left-wing media share the same brain. think about this. putin got an american asset to joint mayor scan military, then run for congress in hawaii, then run for president to help split off the strum win in 2020. gomer pyle. use responded in a tweet calling hillary the queen of war mongers which sounds like a lost iron maiden record. but if trump wins it won't be due to the russians, but americans. moody's predictions are based on ho

elizabeth: you know moody's analytics.ion model, voterring feeling good about bo everythin. >> the republicans under president have done a good job i take issue with president over his trade issues and concerns with tariffs. i will take him to task for that, but deregulation, cutting taxes appointing the right judges, he has done many great things. it has been a bull market and will continue. elizabeth: bullish call. >> it has to continue. >> is nothing to stop it at-this-point, fed will continue to ease montary policy. consumer in great shape, if president would stop tweeting, and stop being a little i immate in some instances we'll be in great shape. elizabeth: at moody's analytics, he said election a could come dn to key counties in pennsylvania. lou zer county. >> your take? >> well, there are other countries that are almost as important, he pointed to one, it has been the one that flipped most dramatically. you could take ohio, pennsylvania, wisconsin, minnesota, those are states he turn the last time, he will keep th

the moody's report was very interesting. median household income under eight years of obama was up $975. that is eight years. under eight years of president bush, president obama, 975. president bush, eight years, eight years, $400, $975. me, two and half years, it is up

new models from moody comes analytics, and moody's one of the most of accurate show president trump actuallying to reelection in 2020. moody's basing its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation. historic gains in the stock market during the president's tenure. the prospects of employment and unemployment which fell to a 50-year low. all three of moody's models show president trump winning between 289 and 351 electoral votes. all of this built on amongst' all other evidence, the median income for the average family gaining more under president trump, $5,000 in just over almost three years. that by the way is five times what happened under obama. and you don't even think about the factor for george w. bush. the german government announce it will not ban huawei from its 5g network. this despite warnings and threats. germany laying out requirements including proof that huawei can be trusted. a new report finds a cyber espionage campaign helped china steal intellectual properties from american aerospace companies that fueled development of china's c919 aircraft. it l

>> i have been saying this for months, welcome to the program moody's. a strong economy would be very difficult for democrats to overcome, they can impeach him, knock him down in the press. but people love prosperity, he will win reelection if the economy remains as strong a year from now, i say, that moody's poll, they were wrong to donald trump's elect in 2016. >> its. >> steve took my last few words, they were wrong most recently. david: they were wrong in underweightinunderweighting tru. >> no, they were just wrong. it is clear that good economy is going to be good for the president. it is good for the incumbent always with a good economy. with this president we should throw out polls and models, they have not work. like today has biden up 14%, we know that the dems are not ringing the bell on that. we're a year away, right now the economy feels okay. there are signs of negative tie, manufacturing numbers look poor, retail numbers look poor. we're not sure it is to be determined. >> on the screen are the different economic models, those are the elect

you know, a number just came out, i don't know if you saw, moody's. respected. and it said that under the bush administration for eight years median household income went up $400. that's over eight years, okay? so remember, $400 over eight years. under president obama median household income went up $975 over eight years. over your favorite president, president donald j. trump -- [cheers and applause] median household income for two and a half years -- so remember this, eight years, eight years, $400. $400. that gets wiped out by inflation. $400. $975. in two and a half years, our number is $5,000 plus $2,000 for the tax cuts.

joining us tonight we welcome back charlie oshay, the retail analyst at moodies.es always good to see you thanks for joining us. >> good to see you. >> the forecast from theretail federation is growthh of 4.2% i saleet th's muchr than the average has been over the last five years. do you buy thenu ers? >> yeah, i think so. i think 4ish. 4.2 is a hill precise for me. but 4ish, maybeis some to thee top of that. i just think the big guys are so strong and are goi d tove pricing this holiday. i don't think the line is gins. going to be an issue. because i think you're going to see the residual factors of wal-mart and amazon fighting t cage match we talked about in the fast. and everybody else will play the game. injury the revenues will there. the question iss for me asfot i every holiday how do the promotions go and dos the margins hold up. >> if indeed the economys slowing ait consumers may be more concerned with that provides point. mouch discounting oco promotionl activity do you anticipe? >> a lot. i think. >> ok m. >> don'tn to sound flippant, sue. but i think e

lehman brothers a 150 year old firm filed for bankruptcy just one week before the bankruptcy both moody's and s. and p. gave lehman brothers the highest possible investment grade days later the u.s. economy collapsed with lehman brothers bankruptcy being one of the main catalysts back then there was no mercy for the rating agencies the major rating agencies have done a terrible job of catching financial crises talking about you moody's standard and poor's fitch come on what planet are you guys living on this conflict of interest has cost american investor investors and pensioners billions of billions of dollars 11 years after that and it's business as usual again the grass is still growing the sun is still shining and the rating agencies are still inflating the reputation of big business if you have the receiver of the evaluation paying for the you know valuation the notion that that evaluation is it is reliable is simply stupid and yet it has continued for many many to work that way and even in the crash of 2008 even though there was some talk about changing this relationship both corpor

so here's what moody pretickets to look like that is a lot of red.he media is trying it best to ignore the great economy, the press is pushing russia and ukraine and impeachment and all of these other fake scandal, they wanted to press americans to make trump look like he's hanging off cliff had or something about to lose office. this is just noise tune it out. you know how you feel. don't let the left make you go crazy. they're the ones going crazy. just is look at them. they toilet lost it . and just wait until they lose again. here with reaction, founder of turning point usa charlie kirk host of get tammy brewings on fox nation, tammy bruce so what did you think about moody prediction? >> well i liked it right because it's true. but i would say that they have a -- there and i would warn everyone as well that it depends on enthusiasm every race depends on who is getting their people out. now in one hand democrats think they're going to ensue their base by being so negative and yet people don't go out to vote against things they go out to vote for t

moodies released a prediction this week here's the headline.rump is on his way to on a easy win in 2020. now based on three different economic models, analysts predict trump will, quote, cruise to victory. the three models are based on neone, how consumers feel about their i financial situation. gains in the stock market, and the unemployment rate. as you can see here, trump will win between 289 and 351 electoral votes remember he only needs to crack 2 0 so we could be looking at a trump land shrilled. let's break down why. the average middle class family is booming under president trump. under eight year of president bush, the average middle class had family's income only up 400 dollars. under 8 year of president obama, the average middle class family income wentnc up a thousand. but after just two and a half years of president trump, the average middle class family's income what gone up 5,000 dollar. those aren't crumbs, nancy. and if you factor in the tax cuts they've got and a $6,000 raise. let's keep going . stock markets are hitting recor

lehman brothers a 150 year old firm filed for bankruptcy just one week before the bankruptcy both moody's and the s. and p. gave lehman brothers the highest possible investment grade days later the u.s. economy collapsed with lehman brothers bankruptcy being one of the main catalysts back then there was no mercy for the rating agencies the major rating agencies have done a terrible job of catching financial crises talking about now to are to escape our charge for the details what more do we know. hi there jackie yes you're right about some of the details a murder investigation has been launched here in the u.k. after 39 bodies were found in the back of a lorry that to derive from ball garia and this was found in an industrial estate in grayson essex which is in the south east of england not too far away from london now in the meantime a 25 year old lorry driver from northern ireland has been arrested on suspicion of murder and in reaction we get reaction from the prime minister as well as also said that he is appalled by this tragic incident we've just heard from the police actually have

moody has the right issuance.ave african policymakers that moody'sso will not even venture into a downgrade. >> tech companies should not be the arbiters of truth according to facebook's chief mark zuckerberg. he says the social network does not affect check political ads because that is not its role. he made the comments at georgetown university, adding, quote, people should be able to see for themselves what politicians are saying. is suspending the sale of most e-cigarette flavors in the u.s., bending the pressure from officials and the public. nation's largest e-cigarette maker will continue selling menthol and tobacco flavored pods. some flavors could return to shelves if the fda approves them. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thank you. central bank leaders are among those gathering in washington. monetary policy amid a global slowdown is a key focus after the imf cut its global growth f

elizabeth: thank you so much. >> to one of most accurate election models run by moody's analytic, they back tested to 1980, they were correct every time, they say president trump will quote cruise to victory due to three different economic models, it looked at because voters feel better about their pocketbook, jobs and stock market gain. median income, gain of more than 5,000 dollars in two years under trump, that is 3 times more than under obama and george w. bush combined, and 8 years each, according to economist steven moore, we bring in joel. that moody's analytic model is stuff, trump does best under pocketbook model. >> the fact, if you look at the economic numbers there is a record long stretch of job growth, and a number that not discussed, looking at how so many millions of people have moved out of lower middle class and middle class to upper middle class and upper class, they are good numbers, we saw with optimism rising for a trade deal with china, if we can get the trade battles behind we're in a great shape for an extension of the record-long economic boom. elizabeth: so w

also want to point out here, we have an alert that the kincaid fire has crossed highway 128 near moody if you're in geyserville leave right now. we will be ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the holidays begin here at the disneyland resort. >>> we have our red flag warning until 4:00 this afternoon. after about 1:00 we'll see the winds lighten up. the red area indicates we're seeing gusty northeast winds, especially in the north bay. relative humidity is below 20%. you can see 12% on the coast. east bay 17%. now the sun comes up at 7:26. we'll add in the heat. with more wind, look at that. we go down to 8% in the north bay. when is the relief? we get an onshore push tomorrow. so that should help. overall we're staying well above average in terms of temperatures and there's our winds throughout the morning hours, very gusty in the north bay. >> all right. thank you for that update. >>> we want to take you back, sky 7 is still live over sonoma county where this fire has forced evacuations most eventually for people in geyserville. this is a town of about 800 people. when you think about it, that's doubling the

according to moody to just might be because the analytics company is the data that suggest president trump will easily win re-election. our day lewandowski? they've been running the number since 19 a.d. each election and they collect every single time except in 2016 when they picked hillary to win. their projections are based on consumer sentiment stock market gains the job market and economic indicators and right now the economy is still doing pretty well. of course that could change in the next 13 months but if things stay the same is president trump at a loss in 2020? here to discuss eu and gop pollster chris will comes. welcome back. this is fascinating because it seems like the president is having a very tough couple of weeks but democrats aren't doing themselves enough favors to capitalize on his misfortune by presenting their good ideas. if the ukraine story fades in the economy continues to improve do you agree with movies that the president will be easily reelected? >> i think in time the answer to that is yes. the typical time when you have an economy and a president presid

moody's service. they never, maybe did well on the couple times, they missed every financial crisis. they were positive on the model -- just telling you. neil: the president will quote them ad nauseam. >> he will. >> should have quoted them in 2006 when they said everything was hunky-dory before -- i covered these guys. they are, they are the worst. >> they may not know much about economics but they do -- neil: let me ask you this. if you have something like this, potential, i agree that you can't throw everything on the president's lap, good or bad, if the gm thing settles, helps the manufacturing sector, perception, it removes uncertainty ahead of the holidays, consumers are already pent up to spend, this is another reason to spend, then you got the china trade deal, problems galore there. it is not signed off yet, but a lot of things are tipping the president's way. this would fuel that argument, right? >> that's right. it is possible he will get a china deal or something he can be signed called th

moody's analysis is based on those economic numbers.hey also said hillary was going to win. here's the thing. most americans can see the economy doing what, if you believe -- >> jesse: the census bureau? c7 if the middle-class felt the way you did, why is it, and this is the point, why is it that president trump has never reached 50% approval. >> greg: you don't have to like your boss. >> juan: most americans say they are not going to vote to reelect trump. in other words, moody's is based on a model in which they have a normal president. this guy is not a normal president. >> greg: everybody knows that. >> jesse: the model and the analysis. it's not just economics. look at the statistics. >> juan: do know what his averages right now on real clear politics? 42%. wait a minute. you are citing a poll. >> jesse: those are facts, juan. >> greg: emily, i wanted to hear you explain why this is so important to america. no pressure. >> emily: in my opinion, it's because this illustrates what is fundamental to voters which is economic security.

and geysers road that is where they have really just close down the road also at moody lane. so don't even try to go to highway one 28 because you don't need to be there that is where the fire is most active. and where they're afraid that is going to continue to spread. >>in defense mode. they're trying to defend structures make sure that they can protect any buildings homes. businesses you name it in the area and then they're also trying to protect people that's why they wanted to extend that mandatory evacuation. 2 guys are ville and i'm glad they did because it was a plot a point where that mandatory evacuation have set in yet and everyone's kind of standing around like this fire looks like it is headed towards us. right now. so us with dozens of other people just got in our car and just took off. one point we just didn't know which way was safer to go on highway one 28 towards 1 one or towards calistoga we chose the calistoga side because we're told that is the safe way out you can see though in the distance it looks like a tons of charred land lots of smoke. they haven't

the moody's report was very interesting. median household income under eight years of obama was up $975. that is eight years. under eight years of president bush, president obama, 975. president bush, eight years, eight years, $400, $975. me, two and half years, it is up $7,000, $5,000 plus $2,000 for the tax cuts that everybody caught. so you have the $2,000 you add to the $5,000 and you have a thousand, 975,000 but that is over eight years each one. i'm only here to and a half years. and i beat them by many times in two and half years. that percentage proportionately. so it is up $5,000 plus it is up $7,000, medium household income. that is a record appear there's never been anything like that. then i say, oh let's impeach the president. give me a break, sean. i don't think the people will stand for it. i really don't. i don't think the people will stand for it. >> sean: the last word, the year you are running. >> president trump: it's supposed to be high crimes and misdemeanors. >> sean: what would you want mitch mcconnel

the continuing outages could strip south africa off its last investment grade credit rating from moody's in its next assessment a week from now the government says it plans to restructure organize its debt by the end of the month. cuba is trying to counter the use of the u.s. dollar on the black market it's announced plans to allow selected state controlled stores to sell products in dollars as well the decision aims to prevent so-called mules who purchase products abroad to sell door to door $77.00 stores across the country will begin showing up clients is and other goods in dollars at the end of the month cuban vice president salvador about as mesa made the announcement on cuban television. so report he said that the proposal is to start the sale of the most in demand products such as domestic appliances mopeds flat screen televisions air conditioners as well as automotive parts. cubans who want to shop in these special stores will need to use a dollar denominated bank card from an account opened with tradeable currencies consumers here are for the move. i think that it's been well tho

prime in the center and the moody yusuke asian detention his flex if sanitation scheme in just 5 years modi's target fall campaign has more than 110000000 toilets an impressive effort but even modi estimates the job's not over. yet. what we have achieved is only a model stunned when i my. europe and i we have to continue our journey to making a clean india are. not a diety. to do still believe in the u.s. caste system and poverty are all obstacles to the embassy school in these makeshift cuts in delhi there's no room for private toilets people here rely on public facilities but they have to pay if they don't have $5.00 rupees to spare going outside is the only option. long whatever the we feel ashamed when we go to the jungle that. the residents live without a lot of. somebody out there looking like there's nothing else we can do it then he said i'm not getting the body. and never sustainability many projects to construct toilets haven't come with plants to maintain them. i love them all the time we were glad that toilets were being built. but now they're all shocked and none of them w

. >> to campaign 2020, pence and biden battling it out in a key swing state, that moody's analytics said it the state to catch for. can a 2020 democrat stop trump powerful reelection case. a free trade, manufacturing jobs created on his watch that president obama mocked add quote, needing a magic wawn wano create, saying they are never coming back. but they did. and selling impeachment to voters. democrat talk about making the case to voters to maybe beyond christmas. is this the new two year mueller probe. and following democrats who are threatening to withhold trump administration officials paychecks, if they don't cooperate with impeachment inquiry. we have a story. letting border agency connection dna to help -- collect dna. >> and o'rourke in a fight with an angel mom. those stories and more tonight. >> i am elizabeth macdonald, the "evening edit" starts right now. ♪ elizabeth: thanks for joining us, you are watching the fox bex business network. to turkey, syria fight. fox news national security correspondent jennifer griffin is live at the pentagon with more. reporter: ambassador

moody, and this is a battalion aid station. this is basically a mobile emergency room.ou have heard of m.a.s.h. this is a mobile emergency room. like any emergency room, what we do is we assess, treat, stabilize, and get them out. we're basically located as close to the front lines as possible. wehave got to be because have troopers coming in who are in bad shape. >> the battalion aid station operates just behind the lines. here the train corpsman demonstrates his value, taking on the jobs a position would have had to perform. >> the medics are out triaging with gunshots and fire and mortar rounds. they'll triage in the field. they'll come to a guy with a cut on his shoulder, put a bandage on and get back. the second guy has both legs blown off, have his chest gone, this guy is gonna die and and there is nothing on god's green earth that will save this guy. they will get lipstick that they got from their girlfriend in atal,n and write f for f give them as much morphine as they can spare, let the guy die in peace, and find somebody they can save. saved soreason that we m

now, that's from moody's. that's a big wall street analytical firm.ential election since 1980 except for 2016, when they forecast a narrow win for hillary. okay. they are saying prosperity wins and unless something goes badly wrong, we will remain a prosperous nation in november next year, and yes, it's very hard to run against prosperity. >>> the third hour of "varney & company" just getting started. >>> we cannot afford a billionaire class whose greed and corruption have been at war with the working families of this country for 45 years. >> really, really, billionaires are making their money off their accumulated wealth. >> you either go out and make it clear to the american people that we are going to, we are going to raise taxes on the wealthy. >> we would repeal significant portions of that tax bill that helped the rich. >> the american people do not want tax breaks for billionaires. they want the rich to start paying their fair share of taxes. stuart: don't you love it. the 2020 democrats just slamming success, waging a war on the wealthy. i nee

making his debut in the hot seat this season mark organ and to my left and back on the bundesliga is moody and the nick before we come back to them let's get started in the fold started sunday in sick the chance to claim top spot would normally be a hopeless quest this farce the season as fate would have it it was only of their only of points off 1st face by a win against and amassed a 7 crown is there is. great whether england back couldn't kill the mood when the funk were ready for a party the match was less than 2 minutes old when marcus. korea number one. the defense was sliced apart old to easily just a few minutes later repeated the trick. this time it was a lesson plan from the left finding patrick hammer for the finish and in the 13th minute the same combination made it 3. rinse and repeat. dr on final question. if their coach martin schmidt thought it couldn't get any worse what he saw next will of left him dumbfounded. was glad i didn't need a boost but i was big keep it so much kobe gave quiet one anyway. to a nearly half time. galloping to victory. hausberg did finally have rea

he was so moody, you know what i mean? we loved him so much. clueless spin off in the work. dion is going to investigate her disappearance and now the most popular girl in school, who do you think should play elton? >> i don't recognize any actor under 30 so hard for me to say. >> you again? >> i'll have to play the role. >> now you are starring in cbs's fbi. there is yelling, you yell quite a bit and actually, i think we put something together for you. >> wonderful. >> a little highlight section. >> do it now! >> just to anyone who will listen. i want everyone to know the information. >> i'm waiting for the scene when i'm yelling to a big group and i turn around and there is nobody there. >> we need answers. >> there is other things keeping you busy in life, too, right? >> yeah. >> i heard that there could be a "frozen 2" involvement by you. i brought the snow out today so you can confirm it. >> it is true. i'm lucky enough to be involved in this upcoming movie "frozen 2" and it is exciting to be involved in something like that. >> do you sing

neil: this wasn't your bailiwick and you're in a different part of moody's, this moody's analytic survey that looked at three different scenarios, one on jobs, focus on the market and overall economy that favored donald trump being reelected again, if that model changes, do the market sentiment, does that change? >> you know, i mean market sentiment can change on a dime. neil: absolutely right. i love how you guys couch that. it could change. >> people, people, that is the problem. we don't know exactly what they will think and feel. they think and feel collectively from time to time. currently if you look, even now looking at sentiment indicators, business sentiment moved down quite sometime. when business looks out into the world, it sees brexit, u.s., china. business sentiment held up because they're seeing job growth. if job growth starts falling -- neil: consumer sentiment is the lynchpin for better than 10-year long expansion. keep them happy, holiday plans happy, all is good, right? >> jobs and wages. if businesses continue to hire, increase wages, consumer sentiment will stay str

>> to put it another way it is the economy stupid moody an lit haddic produces election model that isery single presidential winner since 1980 except one moody release a prediction this week here's the headline. trump is on his way to on a easy win in 2020.

with stock gains and jobs number, moody's model has only been wrong once in

moody and this is battalion aid station. we are part of the second battalion, 506 airborne. i am a physician. doctor who plays dr. full doctor. this is my hobby. i love the educational fact that we are trying to keep this alive. i try to make it enjoyable and let them know how important it is to understand what the history was. is basically a mobile emergency room. you have heard of mash, mobile army surgical hospital. this is a mobile emergency room. like any emergency room we assess, treat, stabilize, and we get them out. asare basically located close to the front lines as possible. we've got to be, because we have troopers coming in here in pretty bad shape. >> the battalion aid station operates just behind the lines. corpsman trained demonstrates his value, taking the many jobs physicians would have to perform, freeing the doctors to give attention to more serious cases. >> the medics, the real heroes of the war, are triaging gunshots with mortar rounds going all over the place. they will triage in the field. they come to one guy with a cut on his shoulder and say put a

fair game and fair game for moody's to say that donald trump will be reelected.th us nathan ruben happy to hear that, and a wall streeter who isn't red or blue and we love that about her, and also making a lot of money doing what she does. and let me-- let me just get your view of this. i think that the moody's analytic, talking about that, only been among since we've had this model in effect, 1981. that was the last go. >> they did a massive revamp for this year and took in factors and we've got the three components. neil: do you buy this? >> no, i read the whole paper and i've got a quantitative background and and i think the data we have going now makes much more sense than what they were doing before. neil: the only caveat, voter turnout, if there's another anger on the other side that could change things. >> they have three scenarios and basically if it's average turnout or above average republican turnout, trump wins by a landslide, a landslide, and massive. only if every democratic voter turns out, like way above average like maximum on the democratic side

the w under contained fire has crossed highway one 28 near moody lane. it is heading west. now head south to evacuation centers at healdsburg community center or winds are high school. again the instructions with this alert our to evacuate immediately if you're in the community of guys are feel they said that the winds are whipping up and that's what caused this fire to explode overnight broke out at 9.30. >>at first they were fighting it from the air. but they add actually at through scanner traffic we know that they had to call off the choppers because they said that there was too much turbulence. it was too dangerous and you see what happened the fire to spread out of control and the winds started building within the fire generating its own. winds and weather that was we've seen a one p ca august was up to 78 miles per hour. and that's why this thing has just mushroom. yeah, it grew so fast earlier this morning was 7,000 acres when we first went on the air. now it's 10,000 acres plus and they're a ttg to get a when they send their planes up maybe about within the hour ab