epidemiologist professor neil ferguson has said there are some signs the lockdown is helping to slow navirus in the uk. professor ferguson, whose modelling of the pandemic helped prompt the government to impose the restrictions on movement, also said there is no precise exit strategy in place yet. i will be honest with you, this is the most important question worldwide. no country has an absolute answer to it. there is intense research going on how we get out of this. we want in our report which came eight descended the lockdown was announced that exit strategies from this where problematic and challenging. there were a lot of numbers in play, they relied on upscale testing. the precise strategy has not yet been formulated. it will be in the next week or two, i would see it is the highest priority of the medical and scientific community in this country and many other countries and of course of policy teams. the two countries which have suffered the highest numbers of deaths have both reported progress in tackling the coronavirus outbreak. within the last hour, spain has released its l

professor neil ferguson said that while the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 daysas critical to determining how soon restrictions could be lifted beyond that. katherine da costa reports. with warm, sunny weather marking the start of what should have been the two—week easter getaway, there is a risk crowds may be tempted to head to beauty spots and beaches, but the government says "stay at home, save lives" is an instruction, not a request. police forces are on standby for what could be one of their biggest challenge this weekend. they are being encouraged to engage with people and advise them to return home. when we come to enforcement, that really is the last resort, because in a way, if we come to enforcement then everybody has failed to understand the significance of this endeavour. government guidelines state everyone must stay at home, but you can leave under the following circumstances. for one form of exercise a day — the advice is to stay as local as possible. you can shop for basic essentials like food and medicine. you are also allowed to go out for any m

it comes as one of the government's scientific advisers, professor neil ferguson, said the exit strategyrisis has not yet been formulated but will be in the next week or two. the newly elected labour leader, sir keir starmer, says the british government's made serious mistakes and is urging it to come up with an exit strategy from the current lockdown. in the united states, new york has recorded 630 more virus deaths, taking its overall toll to more than 3,500. president trump has warned americans to prepare for a big increase in the number of deaths. in spain, the prime minister says the country is "close to passing the peak of infections", and there's also some hope in italy, which has seen its first drop in the number of patients in intensive care during the outbreak. in the world of sport, the professional footballers' association says proposals for a 30% pay cut for english premier league players would hurt the nhs because it would hit government tax revenues. 0urfirst report is on the queen's address, here's our royal correspondent nick witchell. recorded at windsor castle on thurs

aspects going into it and they're certainly in mathematical model now from british epidemiology as neil ferguson it aims to to spread the virus over several waves so to speak it's called the hammer and the down strategy and it involves strict measures to reduce infection numbers followed by the easing of a lockdown where the numbers rise again it would be a 2nd lockdown the numbers would peak again and again peri obviously now the advantage is that the health system would not be overburdened and a growing number of people would to develop immunity disadvantage it would take months if not years to beat the virus professor could is there any shorter way. well the shortest way would be if we have an effect a vaccination obviously that we can give to everybody but it will be months before we have this vaccination available models. model for example of theoretical models that certainly work well let's say in the laboratory setting one thing that these models do not so much take into account is if it is actually practically doable so will the population accept that they can dance which means you can g

professor neil ferguson says he expects the epidemic will plateau over the next week to ten days, butines could see the infection remain high for weeks. clearly, we want to move to a situation where at least by the end of may we are able to substitute some less intensive measures and more based on technology and testing for the complete lockdown we have now. capacity is key. the government says it is doing all it can to increase beds and ventilators. a number of large field hospitals are opening across the country, with the first at london's excel centre expected to start taking patients from next week. 0n the ground, hospitals like luton and dunstable have the beds to cope with current numbers, but if we see a surge in cases, and numbers of critically ill patients, staff here are fearful. there is no cure for this disease. this is not a virus that we can give antibiotics, medicines, anything to to make it go away, we can keep you alive, using the technology and the equipment, until your body gets over it, but we can't fix the virus, but the general public, you can fix the virus, you

infections will remain high for weeks if people decide to spend this weekend outdoors professor neil ferguson from imperial college london as want to people's behavior will determine whether infections peak in the next 10 days or months later . that's not john hall who joins us live from london john so that is a big increase isn't it. it's certainly a big increase 708 deaths recorded reported and recorded in the previous 24 hours and that's a jump of as you said nearly 20 percent of the previous day which is 684 i mean i suppose it's worth noting that we've been seeing these jobs for several days now in about the 25 percent category so this is slightly lower than that but it certainly represents still an exponential increase britain clearly now on a very rapid escalation towards the peak of this epidemic as you mentioned there a scientist was speaking earlier a very eminent scientist professor neil ferguson at imperial college he and his team a key advisor to the government he was saying that he expects the peak now to arrive within the next week to 10 days we've already heard from the health

but neil ferguson said there was some signs that the measures were helping to slow down the spread of the virus. those are the headlines. now time for inside how the. hello, the coronavirus outbreak has affected oui’ coronavirus outbreak has affected our lives in ways none of us could imagine. over the next 30 minutes we will find out how people are looking after themselves and helping each other. we will meet those caring for some of the most vulnerable and checking out the power of community action. welcome to the programme. firstjohn henderson in devon with a charity keeping an eye on those most at risk. home help visits on a tuesday. lunch club 12 noon. hair dressing. how much has changed since we first met peggy in march. lunch clu b we first met peggy in march. lunch club on wednesday. activities at the conservative club at 2 o'clock. living independently, and alone had come at a price and she had been lonely, but totness caring stepped in. at this time, government advice was about trying to find and isolate coronavirus cases at an early stage. have you heard about the coronavir

neil ferguson said he thinks that number is more 2.7. how can we possibly be confident of that?”obert. the answer is yes this is for front line staff working in the nhs and in social care. who died. us and our employees within the nhs and social care. as i say we are also looking at which other groups of key workers that applies to. and who don't have a scheme already in place. can ijust correct, i don't recall ever saying that the target was not .5. what i did say is it's in the range not .5 at the present time. probably somewhere in the middle of that range. secondly, it's really important we do not go above one. that one is an absolute target. the reason for that is that once it goes above one for any prolonged period of time, short. you go backs to exponential growth. and then sooner or later, depending how much above when it is you get back to the situation the nhs is threatened to be overwhelmed because exponential growth goes from very small numbers to very large numbers very fast. i would like to clarify its not going above one is the long—term target. clearly the level w

professor neil ferguson also wants the government to do more work on what happens after the lockdown. from westminster, chris mason reports. for more than three weeks, we have had to get used to this. beautiful beaches like this one in exmouth in devon as good as empty. our freedoms curtailed, our movement is restricted, and there is more to come. the people of this country have made these efforts over the last few weeks in unbelievably large numbers following the rules, very, very few infractions. and i don't wa nt to very few infractions. and i don't want to put all of that good effort to waste, because if we just release all the measures now then this virus would run rampant once again and we can't let that happen. the cabinet met this morning, remotely, to discuss the plan, chaired by this man, dominic raab, the foreign secretary, who is deputising for borisjohnson. secretary, who is deputising for boris johnson. opposition parties back an extension to current restrictions but are asking questions. we would expect the lockdown to continue. we would support that, and we called for

senior epidemiologist invite advising the government professor neil ferguson has said that the peak is expected to arrive in a week to 10 days around about the easter period so i don't think anybody's expecting very much to change post easter and they'll be at a deal of time needed to look at what has happened to that peat whether it has in fact been reduced by these lockdown measures being properly adhered to and whether the plateau that follows it is short or long whether the numbers quit fairly quickly reduced or whether those consistently high numbers continue for a matter of weeks and all of that will weigh on the lock down and also of course the testing that will need to be put in place full community testing eventually when those numbers for away and aggressive contact tracing to prevent a 2nd wave i don't think anybody frankly is expecting very much to change here much before the end of may and again profit professor ferguson reiterating this week of the government very worried about the people coming out in the sunshine taking advantage of the parks and open spaces i hate the

i know a few weeks ago when this began in the uk neil ferguson threw out a number like 2 million deathsour point, they have been all over the place which makes 200,000 sound drastically but something unimaginable just a couple of months ago. >> charles, the fact is that the vast majority of people more than 90% of the people who get it, they may not even have severe symptoms. they don't even know they had it. for many people it's just cold-like symptoms. for people like you and me, we are in trouble if we get it. even if we get it, there's a good chance we can be saved. the problem is we don't know how many people were really infected and how many casualties there were. so all of the models are not accurate. they are not based on anything. 5 years from now we will have the data and analyze and understand what happened here and today we don't understand it and it is really guess work. charles: real quick, is role for technology not just now but in the future to help us not prevent these but able to discover them quicker? >> charles, it's the good fuse. technology is going to save us. we

downing street top epidemiologist professor neil ferguson also admitted there may be some evidence to suggest that lockdown measures are working however he also stressed that it is too early to know what effect this will have on the death rate but experts also caution against over interpret the figures the infection rate could be an underestimate given the lack of testing and the death rate could be an overestimate as it indicates all deaths occurring with the virus not sold the jute to the virus. every dimeola just were university dr mike tilsley agrees that it's still early days. there's a lot of what seems to be conflicting information coming out at the moment i think it is true that the maybe some promising signs in the might be a slight drop in the number of hospital admissions that's happened over the last couple of days what i would say is we're still in the relatively early days in the u.k. is seeing the impact of the most severe social distancing message that came in a week ago and yet there's a certain lack time because when someone gets infected they may not show symptoms f

that's plus a year away and one of the epidemiologists relied on by the government, professor neil ferguson has again reiterated unless we see a vaccine or treatment, this will be with us for the long term. they don't make policy. boris johnson makes policy but he is still recuperating. they're trying to get together on the same page and formulate a response. it is almost impossible, two different dynamics. how can you keep the country's economy more or less afloat without massive damage there? a complex task, one under shot by good news and the numbers can be improving. the daily toll which may get worse as we hear the reporting from the holiday weekend clear, absolutely horrifying, rosemary. >> totally horrifying. nick peyton walsh bringing us the latest. many thanks. >>> for the first time there is a drop in the number of hospitalized covid-19 patients in france, but so far more than 17,000 people have died. just staggering. the country is also recording that more than 600 sailors from a french aircraft carrier group have tested positive for the novel coronavirus and cnn's cyril vanier j

but neil ferguson and ministers have said it all depends on whether people observe social distancing.g that data very carefully to see where this is going and what effect government measures have had so effect government measures have had so far. hugh pym, health editor, thank you very much. technical problems meant the first part of the briefing from the health secretary matt hancock was not broadcast, and we can bring that to you now. the government is working through our action plan, which aims to save as many lives as possible by slowing the spread of the virus. protecting the spread of the virus. protecting the nhs and preventing it from being overwhelmed. our response is built upon the bedrock of the best possible scientific and medical advice so that we can take the right steps at the right time. first by slowing the spread of the virus across our society. and second, by boosting the capacity of the nhs so that we can always care for those who fall sick. sadly, that we can always care for those who fallsick. sadly, coronavirus continues to spread. i can report that through the

the next program june 12th, with a conversation about global flash points with ian bremer and neil ferguson. thank you advanced a good evening. [ applause ] rvelgs tell . >>> television has changed since cspan began 40 years ago but we continue to bring primary election coverage, the presidential impeachment process, now the federal response to the coronavirus. you can watch all of cspan's public affairs programs on television, online or listen on our free radio app and be part of the national conversation through cspan's daily washington's journal program or through our social media feeds. cspan created through private industry as a public service and brought to you today by your television provider. >> next on the presidency -- cia chief historian david robarge talks about the evolving

, on june 12th, dana perino, with a conversation about global flash points with ian bremer and neil ferguson. thank you, and have a good evening. [ applause ] >>> we're featuring american history tv programs this week as a preview of what's available every weekend on c-span3. this evening, pulitzer prize winning cartoonist pat oliphant and his work are subjects of discussion at the university of virginia, focusing on president's lyndon johnson through ronald reagan. american history tv tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span3. >> our mission continues, to provide an unfiltered view of government. already this year, we brought you primary election coverage. the presidential impeachment process and now the federal response to the coronavirus. you can watch all of c-span's public affairs programming on television, online or listen on our free radio app and be part of the national conversation through c-span's daily washington journal program or through our social media feeds. c-span, created by private industry. america's cable television companies as a public service and brought to you today by

potential harm to children's learning but the epidemiologist devising the government professor neil ferguson said the closures were important for transmission to be reduced while school closure as a measure on its own is predicted to have a limited effectiveness in controlling covert 19 transmission when combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus in searing transmission declines professor ferguson's work cause the government to u.-turn on its initial strategy of letting the virus spread through the population leading to so-called herd immunity his prediction of 250000 fatalities that the shift to the lock down ferguson himself is currently self isolating with coronavirus symptoms the government said that such measures are needed to protect the n.h.s. and save lives. the decision to close schools was taken in line with scientific advice on how to limit the spread of the coronavirus we asked most children to stay at home in order to protect the n.h.s. and save lives schools will remain closed until further notic

his name is neil ferguson. it's suppression and it turns out we're implementing suppression and implementing the most aggressive approach. and that's where we're trying to get the reproductive number less than one and the way -- (pause). the way that we're doing is that by sheltering in place. the idea is that a lot of people have not been infected yet. by having people sheltered in place, they're reducing their opportunity to be exposed and by not getting exposed, they cannot get infected. but they have to go out to do essential activities like get their medicines, essential workers and then, i forgot the last category. make sure you get your medicines, food, that was the other category. people have to eat. so you still have some risks and then among -- even though you're asking people to stay unexpose bid staying at hole, you'll have cases that need to be isolated d where our movement has been in the united states. santa clara was convincing in saying, you are one week behind us and you don't want to be in ou

>> well, initially, when neil ferguson, the director of the abdul latif jameel institute predicted 2.2deaths, that was a very scary number. and then dr. deborah birx then reported that 88,000 predicted deaths were to occur, which is still not a good number but less. or about the same as the number of deaths from the flu in 2017-2018. and although every life matters i don't believe fundamentally in hiding from the virus until every american business is killed from the coronavirus. >> so clay, you're a business owner? is that correct? >> yes. sints a since the age of 16. this is my 23rd year. yeah. >> so you have employees. how do your employees feel about going back to work? >> i would say about 85% of them walk with a full faith and excitement about the opportunity to serve our customers, and i would say objectively about 15% of them are very afraid of the coronavirus and do not want to return to work. >> okay. so i mean, it's obviously not out of greed that these people want to go back to work but out of necessity. people need a paycheck. people need to pay their rent. they need to pa

potential harm to children's learning but the epidemiologist advising the government professor neil ferguson said the closures were important for transmission to be reduced all school closures as a measure on its own is predicted to have a limited effectiveness in controlling covert 19 transmission when combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus in searing transmission declines professor ferguson's work cause the government to u.-turn on its initial strategy of letting the virus spread through the population leading to so-called herd immunity his prediction of 250000 fatalities led to the shift to the lock down focusing themself is currently self isolating with coronavirus in terms of government said that such measures are needed to protect the n.h.s. and save lives. the decision to close schools was taken in line with scientific advice on how to limit the spread of the coronavirus we asked most children to stay at home in order to protect the n.h.s. and save lives schools will remain closed until further noti

professor neil ferguson also admitted there may be some evidence to suggest that lockdown measures are working however he also stressed that it is too early to know what effect this will have on the death rate but experts also caution against over interpret in the figures the infection rate could be an underestimate given the lack of testing and the death rate could be an over estimate as it indicates all deaths occurring with the virus not so early june to the virus or for more on this i'm not joined by an epidemiologist at work university dr mike tilsley. mike thanks so much for joining us on the one hand we're told there are green shoots and yet the daily death toll has now reached an all time high. yeah i mean obviously i think there's you know there's a lot of what seems to be conflicting information coming out at the moment i think it is true that the maybe some promising signs in the might be a slight drop in the number of hospital admissions that's happened over the last couple of days what i would say is we're still in the relatively early days in the u.k. is seeing the impact

potential harm to children's learning but the epidemiologist devising the government professor neil ferguson said the closures were important for transmission to be reduced while school closure as a measure on its own is predicted to have a limited effectiveness in controlling covert 19 transmission when combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus in searing transmission declines professor ferguson's work cause the government to u.-turn on its initial strategy of letting the virus spread through the population leading to so-called herd immunity his prediction of 250000 fatalities led to the shift to the lock down ferguson himself is currently self isolating with coronavirus symptoms the government has said that such measures are needed to protect the n.h.s. and save lives. the decision to close schools was taken in line with scientific advice on how to limit the spread of the coronavirus we asked most children to stay at home in order to protect the n.h.s. and save lives schools will remain closed until further

downing street top appealed to me ologist professor neil ferguson also admitted that there may be some evidence to suggest that lockdown measures are working however he also stress that it is too early to know what effect this will have on the death rate but experts also caution against over interpret in the figures the infection rate could be an underestimate given the lack of testing and the death rate could be an overestimate as it indicates all deaths occurring with the virus not soley due to the virus. i was just a war university dr mike tildes he agrees that it's still early days because a lot of what seems to be completely new information coming out at the moment i think it is true that the maybe some promising sign been the might be a slight drop in the number of hospital admissions that happened over the last couple of days what i would say is we're still in the relatively early days in the u.k. is seeing the impact of the more severe social distancing measures that came in a week ago and. yet there's a certain lack of time because when some get infected they may not show symp

potential harm to children's learning but the epidemiologist advising the government professor neil ferguson said the closures were important for transmission to be reduced while school closure as a measure on its own is predicted to have a limited effectiveness in controlling covert 19 transmission when combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus in searing transmission declines professor ferguson's work calls the government to u.-turn on its initial strategy of letting the virus spread through the population leading to so-called herd immunity his prediction of 250000 fatalities meant to the shift to the more than 37 himself is currently self isolating with coronavirus symptoms the government said that such measures are needed to protect the n.h.s. and save lives the decision to close schools was taken in line with scientific advice on how to limit the spread of the coronavirus we asked most children to stay at home in order to protect the n.h.s. and save lives schools will remain closed until further notice e

science the chief epidemiologist at imperial college is a very influential advisor to the government neil ferguson has said that what happens when that peak arrives in around 10 days will largely be termed determined by what people are doing now at hearing or not to the lockdown measures either that peak will give or give way quite quickly to reduce numbers or if people flout the lock down well that peak will give way to a plateau of consistently high numbers and we've seen record numbers every day now possibly for weeks crippling the health care system lengthening of course the lockdown and leading to much higher numbers of fatalities in this country don't talk to us if you can about their parent control the sea surrounding. a new temporary hospital that was set up in london specifically around the rents it was paying is paying i'm not sure for that for that premises what can you tell us about that and. what are you talking about the xcel center in london's docklands it opened this week it's an enormous conference center that's been turned in just 9 days with the help of army engineers into an n.

professor neil ferguson also wants the government to do more work on what happens after the lockdownthe first minister nicola sturgeon says the scottish government will look at its own exit strategy in the coming days. in a leaked letter seen by the bbc, senior social care officials have criticised the government's handling of the pandemic. it describes the national distribution of personal protective equipment to care homes as "shambolic". the house of commons authorities have approved the sitting of a virtual parliament. from next week 120 mps will take part in proceedings virtually, with another 50 allowed in the chamber. screens will be placed inside the house of commons. we inside the house of commons. will talk more abou‘ little we will talk more about this in a little while. downing street says there's now the capacity to carry out 35,000 daily tests for covid—19 as it tries to meet its pledge of 100,000 test a day by the end of april. and in the united states, another 5.2 million americans have claimed for unemployment benefit, bringing the overall unemployment rate to over 2

i think that was most graphically described by professor neil ferguson, one of the government advisers virus is between 0.6 and 0.7 at the moment. in other words, eve ryo ne 0.7 at the moment. in other words, everyone who gets the virus is infecting less and one other person. so the virus is starting to die out but it does not take very much for that r eight to go above one and evenif that r eight to go above one and even if it goes to 1.1, we are back in the territory of the nhs potentially being overwhelmed with not enough ventilators and so on and so not enough ventilators and so on and so forth. it is a very dangerous period. i think all of us listening to those messages about social distancing and really obeying them is incredibly important. can i ask you about testing? clearly, there has been a huge amount of criticism in this area, not least from people working within the nhs, but elsewhere, too, in the care sector. iamjust elsewhere, too, in the care sector. i am just wondering whether you think as a former cabinet minister, was it wise to set a target of 100,000 tests by the e

we were told by sir patrick, john adams told us that neither him nor niall —— neil ferguson had carriedppened, which is that modelling came from a variety of sources. studio: so, dominic raab bringing to an end that daily news bulletin. a reminder and a recap of that news briefing led by the foreign secretary. the number of people in the uk who have died from coronavirus in the uk is 881 in the last day, bringing the total number of reported deaths to almost 8000. dominic raab announced that the uk has not yet reached the peak of the virus, and that the lockdown is being assessed. he added that it is still too early to lift the restrictions. and he said, we are not done yet, you must keep going. he gave an update on the health of the prime minister who remains an in intensive care where he is being treated for coronavirus. the prime minister is making positive steps forward and is in good spirits, according to the foreign secretary. sophie hutchinson is here, and they covered quite a lot of ground. let's talk first about some of the graphs we we re talk first about some of the graphs we

likes of niall ferguson from imperial college, he has been central to much of the modelling —— neil fergusonenough. it is good, but what you really need is an army of people to go around chasing up contacts because many people, the elderly and those who are less tech savvy, are not going to have mobile phones and are probably not going to be signed up to apps. so how are you going to trace their contacts? when you look at countries like south korea, that is how they have had their success. they have literally employed loads of people to chase around checking who you are in contact with in the local shops, in your workplace and your street. it is massively labour—intensive, but it does enable you to more comprehensively hunt down the virus. norman, thank you. let's talk more about when the lockdown should be ended. with me is karol sikora, who is professor of medicine at the university of buckingham. ijust want i just want to start with how infectious it is believed covid—19 is if left unchecked, and how effective in bringing down the infection rate you believe the lockdown has been? the lock

“ anyone is wondering who is responsible for you being locked into your house, the answer is neil ferguson bank and i have gary lineker talking about the effect of all this on sport in general and football in particular. lots and lots of questions and a certain number of a nswe rs questions and a certain number of answers at nine o'clock full quite a mix, thank you. when kevin webber was diagnosed with terminal cancer he set about achieving everything he dreamed of, including running the world's toughest endurance race for the fifth time — the marathon des sables. the five—day event across the sahara desert has been postponed because of coronavirus — but that won't stop kevin. he's swapping sand dunes and camels for freshly cut grass and a washing line as he prepares to recreate the race in his own back garden. let's take a look at some of his previous successes. iam i am delighted to say that kevin joins us now live from his garden in epsom on a beautiful morning as he prepares to set off. morning, kevin. this is not the way you imagined running this race, is it?|j this is not the way you