i nimbus. did you see this at the time? a, ., nimbus. did you see this at the time?us. did you see this at the time? ., ,, .,~ ., nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., , , w ., ., nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., , , . ~' ., ., let time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you _ time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it- — time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting _ time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting our - time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting our eyes i me show you it. casting our eyes over the types of lessons identified here... looking on the column numbered number one policy issues for further discussion, we see, numbered number one policy issues forfurther discussion, we see, for example, three bullet points down: mental health support for those involved in strategic decision—making of cave and mac 19, consideration of public unrest —— covid—19, public unrest and other similar considerations in the other columns. for example, at the top of the second column, the need for the m

let's look at what we have about operation nimbus. 5022.. if we can go to page seven. we see the synopsis, very much as you have already outlined, to be imagined that the covid pandemic is advanced, we see the participants are asked to imagine the date is 14th april, two months further on from 12th february, the date took place. sustained transmission has been ongoing for a month and a half, hypothetically, by that stage. there are various facts and figures given but the most striking is in the last bullet point which is as of the synopsis to be assumed there may be about 840,000 excess deaths over the 16 week wave of infection, which as you say reflects the reasonable worst—case scenario of the time. if we look over the page, you see a wave which was the scenario being engaged with, the solid line is the hypothetical line up to the date of the exercise and then projected dotted line after that, the wave lasts for 16 or so weeks and the idea is within that time there would have been that very large number, 845,000 excess deaths leading on f

so if i had just known that exercise nimbus had happened, i might have been encouraged. went to exercise nimbus i might have been a bit discouraged. the people who were present at exercise nimbus were not the secretaries of state, who would be sat around the cabinet table making these decisions. were you concerned that the government had not got a grip on the situation? i was concerned that the people who were being asked to make these very consequential decisions that were coming our way very fast may not have got their heads round what it would feel like to have three quarters of the population affected and 1% of them die. i mean, that is clearly unconscionable, not something any politician could conceivably agree to. dame angela mclean also told the inquiry it became clear that intensive care units would be in "big trouble" if the number of cases continued to rise at the same rate as they were ahead of the first lockdown. you have already heard from colleagues that it was too late. so if we are doing with the benefit of hindsight exercise here i would say it should ha

just dealing briefly with nimbus, - dealing briefly with nimbus, evidence _ dealing briefly with nimbusimbus focused on their likely impact of the - the effect that nimbus focused on their likely impact of the nhs, . the effect that nimbus focused onl their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious — their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because _ their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one - their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one of- their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one of the i it is obvious because one of the terrible — it is obvious because one of the terrible things— it is obvious because one of the terrible things you _ it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face - it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face in - it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face in the l terrible things you face in the course — terrible things you face in the course of— terrible things you face in the course of that _ terrible things you face in the course of that exercise - terrible

but in a big eak the nimbus in mid-february. but in a big peak the nhs — nimbus in mid-february. stage you think you need to act in order to do something. that— to act in order to do something. that is— to act in order to do something. that is what the mothers were trying to understand, and why they needed more _ to understand, and why they needed more precision. on a basic level anyone — more precision. on a basic level anyone could see that if you had a huge _ anyone could see that if you had a huge wave — anyone could see that if you had a huge wave of infections it would cause _ huge wave of infections it would cause us— huge wave of infections it would cause us problems. the _ cause us problems. the reason i am asking is that, as we know, when the weekend of 14th, 15th of march came around, one of the reasons why it was felt necessary to take dramatic steps or change direction, was a new understanding that the nhs was going to be overwhelmed. i suppose my question is, is that part of the analysis, something that could have been understood earlier, if only more urgent steps h

let us go, - then, to some of the documents that are associated with the nimbus. to two. i'm sure you've looked at this document, dr warner, but do you remember seeing it at the time? yes. , ., u, , ., yes. lets go, if we can, first of all 20 page _ yes. lets go, if we can, first of all 20 page seven, _ yes. lets go, if we can, first of all 20 page seven, where - yes. lets go, if we can, first of all 20 page seven, where we . yes. lets go, if we can, first of i all 20 page seven, where we see yes. lets go, if we can, first of - all 20 page seven, where we see what is described as the synopsis. and we will note, we did look at this is the end of last week. first of all, the end of last week. first of all, the first bullet point, the notional date was the 14th of april, so they were projecting it two months ahead because we know that the exercise was actually on the 12th of february. and then there are various details given about what is supposed to have happened by then and what is forecast and we can see the penultimate bullet point, eight and a half thousand deat

yourselves said nimbus had no reference and i said nimbus had no reference and made _ said nimbus hadt's right so — countermeasures at all. that's right so what _ countermeasures at all. that's right. so what was _ countermeasures at all. that's right. so what was that - countermeasures at all. that's right. so what was that a - countermeasures at all. that's - right. so what was that a reference to? 0r— right. so what was that a reference to? ., ., “ right. so what was that a reference to? ., ., ,, , ., right. so what was that a reference to? ., ., ,, i. ., to? or the other work you would need if ou to? or the other work you would need if you didn't — to? or the other work you would need if you didn't take _ to? or the other work you would need if you didn't take other _ if you didn't take other countermeasures, that was the position of cc s, as represented and articulated for instance in the 28th of every note to the prime minister, which was a note about how to manage the consequences of the pandemic, not how to stop it. shit the consequences of the pandemic, not how to stop it.— n

was a meeting in february 2020 to talk about operation nimbus, which was essentially an exercise toould be, caused by the pandemic, under a reasonable worst—case scenario, so how many deaths could we have been looking at in april 2020 question it was looking to answer. he said the modelling showed it could be 8a0,000 deaths by april 2020. the reason why all of this is important is because one of the criticisms that has been levelled at the government is that it locked down to late in 2020 and so the question that was put to simon stevens really was if in february 2020, you were looking at a reasonable worst—case scenario of 8a0,000 deaths, why didn't we lockdown sooner? and i think what was interesting actually was what simon stevens did not say. he did not say, we should have lockdown sooner. he actually said that there was a lot of ambiguity at that point about how likely it would be that we were going to get to that point, that reasonable worst—case scenario, so he was kind of very measured on that and in fact, his criticism really was that there should have been more clarity abo

and you've all key celia and it's a national part with the most radical isis, nimbus being the internationals. oh no, we are in sight, the whole come on, we're about to arrive at the mark. now this good fair had takes us to the part of the camp where the foreign women and their children leave. these women have phone to hard line group national. we only want the law of god, sure, re a to apply by a judge all the children. here are the new soldiers of isis. you sit, the did very be, was found this morning for the every day. something like this happens here. we're able to put on the side of the baby was in a plastic bag and the trash. and then many bad things happen here. the medication doesn't mean that it won't just woke up well, mine was killed. that's all these threw her into the sewage system. and i need to many atrocities how come, but if the chance that option i'm not, i'm on, let's go to the more it visa card. isn't that dangerous? no one. that's why i'm here. this is the campus market. it is organized by the residents themselves. i'm try talking to them just only 110th. i know that they

that came back to the nimbus discussion and other discussions around that.and it is there in the written evidence of the inquiry, that we didn't know exactly how many beds the nhs had. what matters is not a physical bed, it is a staffed bed and that is flexible. in some cases, we took the staff ratio in intensive care, normally one—to—one, up intensive care, normally one—to—one, up to six patients to one nurse. so it is flexible because of the nhs, said in your question, where the nhs have survived? of course nhs would have survived? of course nhs would have survived. it would have done its level best and is amazing and adaptable institution. but it would not have been able to provide care to everybody and therefore the number of people who died would have gone up even more than it would have donejust because of gone up even more than it would have done just because of the virus. and done just because of the virus. and therefore, done just because of the virus. and therefore. is _ done just because of the virus. and therefore, is this _ done just because of