opec. opec and non- an impact onto the market, it will be to have expanded beyond may.ood for the industry. >> what about shale? the industry is dynamic. $55. you see money coming back in these industries. if you want to acquire a position, i need to guess $80 per hour. it is a matter of a step to invest. it is a business where the -- ers it is expensive. >> you increased your dividends. you have described how it looks like opec will probably continue beyond may. forou think the bad times the oil industry are over? >> i think it is a volatile market. libya coming back to the market. compliant,untry be the strategy is to continue to lower the regular. my job is to be sure we are profitable. the answer is being disciplined. let's widen the conversation and bring in simon. great to have you on the program. in's jump in to the comments terms of the risk the u.s. shale rebound is posing to this agreement based struck at the end of last year. >> it is positive for the oil market now that we have them at the $50 low barrier. we should remember getting oil prices too high from

not just opec, but opec and non-opec.f they want an impact on the markets, which is to see inventories going down, because ,he inventories are quite high for the time being, the priority is to be compliant with what they have announced. that's good news for this industry. >> what about shale? does that play into that at all? shale oil,he industry in the u.s. is very dynamic ecostem. at $55 camesa money coming back in this industry. >> you think it's quite expensive. younow, what i said, if want to invest to acquire a position, it's expensive. if i want to acquire a position in the permian, i need $80 per barrel. invest iswo expensive. -- the step to invest is expensive. increased your dividends. you beat analyst estimates. how it looksribed like opec will continue beyond may. do you think the bad times in the oil industry are over? >> i'm pretty convinced. we are in a volatile market. there is a positive trend. i think the markets are willing to go up. but you have negative impacts potentially. the u.s. shale oil increase

before the opec deal it was two to one. we've only seen periods of that much optimism briefly before, back in 2014. they were usually followed pretty swiftly by a correction. so there's an interest degree bait going on in the market right now about whether positioning is signaling a correction to come but beyond that, if you look at something simple, like the 50-day moving average, we we have seen both brent and w.t.i. dip below their moving average for the first time since opec and russia agreed those production cuts. really, there could be something changing here. >> coming up, our excuse i interview with the c.e.o. of qatar bank. yousef: welcome back. qatar national bank is eyeing southeast asia as it look for its next growth supreme court. i talked to their c.e.o. about that and where else they're seeking acquisitions. >> we have operations in 30 countries. in terms of acquisitions or consolidations, we are very opportunistic. as long as it fits our strategy, you know, and basically fits into our, you know, requirements

subscribers, if you want a snapshot of what is happening at opec, go to opec on the bloomberg toee production, cuts, and everything related to opec. more details on that later in the show, so stick around. let's get a quick check of how oil prices are faring as we speak. brent crude and wti slightly to the vti down .1%. japan,let's go over to the un security council may convene tomorrow in response to north korea's ballistic missile test. the lunch on sunday came as president trump and japan's prime minister wrapped up their weekend summit in florida with the president strongly backing the alliance between the two nations. i just want everybody to understand and fully know that the united states of america japan, a great ally, 100%. thank you. our asia government editor is here with more on this. shery: let's get started with the shinzo abe-donald trump summit. didkoran crete thing that come out was this a new u.s.-japan economic dialogue or what they are planning to do with that, so what is that about? abe keep someelp of these issues like trade and currency sort of out of the p

it is not just opec, it is opec and non-opec.they want to have an impact on the market, to see investment rates going down, it will be to have asked -- expanded beyond may. they seem to be quite compliant. that is good news for the industry. >> you increased your evidence, beat analyst estimates. it looksdescribed how like opec will probably continue beyond may. do you think the bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i'm not fully convinced of that. we are in a volatile market. yes, there is a positive trend and i think the markets are willing to go up. but there are negative impacts potentially. the u.s. shale oil increased, libya coming back to the market. will all the countries be compliant? our strategy is to be breaking even. it's an industry, a commodity where my job is to make sure we are profitable despite the prices. we have got more compelling conversation coming up on bloomberg best. loretto master lays at her thinking on a march rate hike. why sam is stoked to put his money in the stack, and australia's prime min

andaw the price of wti brent barely budge yesterday following opec reports.fact, the price of oil has been range bound for the past few months come a moving within a five dollar range for several weeks as our colleague has pointed out. now i have seen three good explanations for, behind the reason why we have not seen more enthusiasm about the opec reports. one is the idea about optimism was priced in. we saw the big rally in prices right after the november agreement was announced. some people are still skeptical about the self-reported numbers coming out of opec remembers. you mentioned saudi arabia's figure just then. tensiond is the ongoing between opec and u.s. shale production, rebounding strongly. u.s. inventories at a five-year high. we will get more data on that later this week. tracy, morgan stanley is saying that they are seeing tanker rates strength may be draws, a inventory fascinating gadfly article saying opec was able to boost prices without cutting, and all of this with where do u.s. inventories stand? tracy: yeah, that is the question in the

before the opec deal, it was 2-1.here is an interesting debate going on in the market right now about whether positioning is signaling a correction to come. beyond that, if you look at something simple, like the 50-day moving average, we have seen brent and wti dip below their 50-day moving average. really, there could be something changing. yousef: our exclusive interview qatarthe ceo of cat national bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: welcome back. ceo about the focus on asia and where else they are seeking acquisition. acquisitions or consolidations, as long as it fits our strategy and it fits into our criteria for acquisitions, we will look at it. we are not actively looking for acquisitions. our strategy is a mix of organic and inorganic growth. yousef: what is your strategy for saudi arabia looking like? it is the key economy in this part of the world. it is undergoing massive changes in terms of how the government allocates budgets. trying to leverage our network and the relationship between qatar and saudi arab

it is not really opec it -- opec. it is opec and the non-opec market.he inventories are quite high. it will be expanded beyond may. that was -- priorities will become plain. there is some good news for this industry. >> what about shale, does that play into that at all? >> it plays. , the industry in the u.s. is very dynamic and consistent. at $55 you see money coming back in this industry. but she said you think it is quite expensive. >> what i said is if you want to invest to acquire position, it is expensive. if i want to acquire position in get $80.um i need to it is a matter of the step to invest is expensive. it is a business where the winners [inaudible] 40,000 for an acre is expensive. >> you increased your dividends, you beat analyst estimates. it looksdescribed how like opec will continue beyond may. do you think the bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i am not fully convinced. we are in a volatile market. positivets, it is a trend and the markets are willing to go up but you have some negative impact potentially. the -- libya coming b

non-opec.riving force of prussia, so russia for the first time in history, and the leadership of vladimir putin, excepted to make some cuts. it was the driver that gives the argument to change its policy, so it does not relate opec but opec and non-opec. market could see inventory going down because it is quite high, and it will be to extend beyond made. think that is the timing to make the priority and it seems to be quite [indiscernible] good news for the industry. you increase to dividends and beat analyst estimates. you just described how it looks like opec will probably continue beyond me. to think the bad times of the oil industry -- do you think the bad times of the oil industry are over? >> yes, there is a positive trend, and i think the markets are willing to go up, but you ask about the impacts potentially and what do you want, u.s. oil shale increase, and ruled the country's be in compliance? our strategy is to continue to lower [indiscernible] it is an industry, commodity, or my job

but opec and non-opec.could see inventory going down because it is quite high, and it will be to extend the armed may. -- beyond may. good news for the industry. >> do increase your dividends and beat analyst estimates. you just described how it looks like opec will continue beyond may. do you think it is bad -- do you think the bad times of the oil industry are over? >> we are in a volatile market. there is a positive trend, and i think the markets are willing to go up, but you ask about the -- you have some negative impacts potentially and what do , you want, u.s. oil shale increase, and will the country be compliant? our strategy is to continue to lower or break even. it is an industry, commodity, or -- where my job is to make sure we are profitable, and the answer is discipline. david: we have got more compelling conversation coming up on "bloomberg best." cleveland fed president lays out her thinking on a march rate hike. -- explaining why he is stoked to put his money in the stock -- in the stack. aus

opec has lost a lot of clouds. host: to our radio listeners, the topic is the economy, jobs, trade, and the markets with roben farzad. rhode island.om good morning. republican line. caller: good morning. thank you pursue spent. zad, you have a few things wrong. number one, wall street has been gobbling up small banks. you need to change. frank because small banks cannot land. host: al, stay on the line. we will take that and then follow up. guest: there have been complaints that the cannot land, but why can't they land? is it because of the "owners regulation" that. frank put on them in terms of approving a loan and mortgage? it is a huge problem right now. that some of the problems are much more mundane and the demand has not been there. you have small business owners complain about the access to credit but also a real estate market that has changed enormously, far less speculative using cheap mortgages and people making cash acquisitions or investors, commercial properties that i really not the kind to interface

opecs the benchmark numbers as well, the opec production, what is opec doing in light of this?compared to last week. ?s opec accelerating how much of a problem is this? are targeting stockpiles, trying to bring those down by implementing a six month cut. opec is able to say we are taking production off the market now but they are holding out the possibility that production comes back on at the end of the year. that shift makes prices a little higher now but doesn't give them much impetus to rise so that should take some storage off, take some supplies off but you mentioned the u.s. supplies. there is more to come in terms of u.s. oil. r see the recounts -- the ig counts creeping back up. shale is part of the supply equation going forward and we see this administration in the united states is very favorable to oil. they have approved the keystone xl pipeline should bring more canadian heavy crude to the market and there are other issues like that which could allow for a continued ramp-up of u.s. oil. u.s. oil is here to stay and the stockpiles are not an immediate problem and we

it's not only opec, it is opec and non-opec.he inventories are going down because inventories are finite. beyond may.nd there seems to be quite comprehensive good news overall within the industry. about shale, does that play into it at all? the industry in the u.s. is very dynamic. you see money coming back into this industry. krejci said you think it is quite expensive. >> if you want to invest to inquire position, it's expensive. if i want to acquire position in the permian, i need to get $80 a barrel. the steps to invest are very expensive. the winners for the time being have been the landowners. but $40,000 for an acre is very expensive. >> you increased your dividends and beat analyst estimates. how itjust described looks like opec will probably continue beyond may. do you think the bad times for the oil industry are over? convinced about it. we are in a volatile market. yes, there's a positive trend, -- i think the markets are the shale oil will increase, will all the country be compliant? to policy and strategy is [indisc

what is opec doing in light of this?for today's numbers is 3 million barrels compared to last week -- from last week. is opec looking at accelerate any of their efforts? how much of a problem is this for them? reporter: they are trying to bring their stockpiles down by implementing a six month cut. opec is able to say, we are taking production of the market now, but they are holding off the possibility that it comes back on at the end of the year. that makes prices a little higher now, but does not give them much impetus to rise to the backend of the year. that should take some supplies off. but you mentioned the u.s. supplies. i think we've got more to come in terms of u.s. oil. we see the rate counts climbing back up and u.s. production potentially going to increase this year. the shale story is not over. a lot of the opec ministers would admit that shale is part of the supply equation. and we see an administration in the united states that is favorable to oil. they have approved the keystone xl pipeline that should br

tracy: an expansion in drilling as the opec curb boost prices.argeting crude rose for the first time in 15 months. but shale drilling has been led by eagle ford and the basin as the industry recovers from the worst crash in three decades. raise: iran is looking to aliens for its news agency. they have given the green light to other currency bonds of up to $1.5 billion. the money will be used to develop oil and gas fields and issue bonds well after approval. all right, let's talk more about the local story, the parallel market. we have the ceo. thank you very much for joining us. congratulations. this is a big day. put this in context for me as to the magnitude of today's developments. >> thank you very much. good morning to all of you. basically the new pellet -- the new parallel market is a dream to come true for the market. we have been working faithfully with our partners to encourage joinof saudi companies to these saudi cuts in the market. and the interest and the demand we have are noticed from saudi two monthshe past was beyond our expecta

not a surprise to hear that key members of that agreement, opec and non— opec members, to cut the numberbarrels per day they are not following through. russia not following through. russia not following through, other members not following through, other members not following through. the compliance was only 40% in january and it following through. the compliance was only 40% injanuary and it is a story that could be repeated many times over the decades. opec has a very bad reputation for maintaining compliance to their targets. they are a carteland compliance to their targets. they are a cartel and the result was an incentive that one member will not stick to that. the agreement can fall down. what do you think will happen to oil prices? they are higher now than a year or two ago but i think they will be. our producer stephen says it you are an expert on greece. laughter let's talk about greece, ministers from the eurozone meeting yesterday and talking about a stand—off this agreement. what is your take? perhaps there has been some progress. people in greece feel they have been sold out

if opec continues a 90%. delivering what it promised and it may be enough to stabilize prices in the 55-65 dollars per barrel range. price iniking the texas and north dakota and oklahoma. there is a limit on their actions. alix: what did they say about non-opec production? javier: they've taken a bullish view about non-opec production, particularly from the united states. they believe if you compare the numbers of december 2016 to the numbers we will get in december 2017, the united states production could be about half a million barrels higher. the important point they are making, oil demand is growing faster than expected. that is creating room for opec to reduce their own production and let shale come back. aramco is not going to give up market share in asia. they are selling their full volume. maybe the u.s. will give up some share, but definitely not to asia. jon: a big original story in asia. russia versus saudi arabia and how to maintain market share in that region. what is the story there? javier: the

one is the opec cuts. the other is the return of u.s. production, which arguably has in faster and stronger than many people expected. yet the market seems to look through the u.s. story and focus entirely on the opec agreement. why is that? sam: that's a very good question. i do think the shale factor is overlooked. we have a huge amount of drilling. a record for some time back now. backction is a little way on the curve. the production is the highest since april. it is quite high at, -- it is quite high, but not enough to drop the market. will it do so in the next year? it may do so, yes. yousef: we have an amazing overview of what is going on in the opec world. you can see the capacity. thehave a nice pie chart of global output and then, of course, other small decorations as well. me about the chances of a rollover here. opec seems set aside with the progress. says everything is ok. there's still a chance they will extend this, isn't there? sam: that's the question. are they going to extend? are they going to bring the market into bal

with this derail the opec strategy?inly counterbalancing part of it, but the joint agreement with non-opec countries take out 1.8 million barrels per day of supply. u.s. production is increasing, we do not expected to reach these levels. consensus suspects -- expects 400 to 900,000 barrels a day, so we still expect to see this opec deal helping to rebalance the market, however, there still remains a number of headwinds. inventories remain high. higher production from shale producers that you mentioned, and of course this opec deal is for six months. we believe it will have to be extended for more of this rebalancing to happen, so there are still a lot of questions out there. at the moment, some support oil prices, greater discussion of compliance, but a lot of questions still. that why you haven't made any significant revisions to your base case oil price? crude justting brent slightly above where we are at right now. >> absolutely. there will be a number of critical points. we have seen u.s. production increasing, and

here's opec 1, opec 2, the collapse of opec. $100 oil and down we go. this is inflation-adjusted.ising wealth of america and the world over the years. the headline here is, oil is as cheap as it was when richard nixon was president. to 68e are with oil back are approximate valuations. how powerful is opec given 1968 oil? ed: it was that powerful then and it is getting not to be powerful now in the future. opec was created just around then, and it was created partly because the u.s. was an exporting country, partly because the u.s. market was squeezing out oil from these new countries.producing tom: my major question to you+++ like 1986. if you are wrong and others are right, and we break down below in 1968 valuation, what happens to saudi arabia in his fragile cartel in vienna? ed: i think we're going to get to below 68 value. it is going to be a bumpy ride getting there. this is a real problem. it is a problem not just for the saudis, but rush as well. tom: you're saying on a longer-term view, we're going to get back to pre-opec, pre-1960's, 1970's valuation. what will that do to

what is opec betting for in the coming months.seeing risks of the prices falling below $50 for a considerable period of time and even touching the levels of $40, $45 during this year. why? because investors, they tend to overact. they overact to the upside. they overact to the down side. >> what do you think is the most interesting commodity? >> every commodity is really interesting. oil is interesting. iron ore is interesting. gold is interesting. >> what stands out? >> this year oil is one of the most interesting ones due to expectations and the situation right now on investor front. >> okay. >> also gold is a commodity which is one of the least favorable from the investors point of view an might snap back and increase this year unexpectedly. >> you read my mind. i don't understand gold at the moment. i don't understand how i'm supposed to think about it. as a protection hedge? follow it via the dollar correlation and the fed expectations? am i supposed to look at supply/demand issues out of asia? >> supply demand doesn't matter

it is opec and non-opec.ut if they want to impact the markets, we need to see the inventories going down, because the inventories are quite high. we would need to expand it beyond me. -- beyond may. it is good news for the industry. >> what about the shale? does that play into that at all? patrick: it plays. -- the industry in the u.s. is very dynamic. at $55, you see money coming back in this industry. >> you said you think it is quite expensive? patrick: what i said is that if you want to invest to acquire position, it is expensive. today, if i want to acquire position in the permian, i need $80 per barrel. of, the step to invest is very expensive. it is a business where the winners for the time being are the winners. $45 -- $40,000 for an acre is very expensive. >> you increased your dividends. you beat analyst estimates. you have just described how it looks like opec will probably continue beyond made. -- may. do you think the bad times for the oil industry are over? patrick: i think we are in a volatile

. >>> kuwait's opec minister said compliance with supply agreement is above 90% while non-opec is around 50%. the minister added that current oil prices are good and he expects them to rise with higher level of compliance in output cuts. london petroleum has proposed spinning off nonnor weekan assets. lundin planning on the toronto and stockholm exchanges. the company says the corporate split would allow it to maximize shareholder value from its nor we canan assets. ian reed with us head of oil and gas research. good morning. >> morning. >> opec delivered, i was looking at the minister saying the compliance was 92% to be exact. non-opec producers wases 50%. we should see that as good news. no? >> i think opec is delivering above and beyond what people expected. this is a record level of compliance with their cuts. if you see non-opec people step up, russia in particular who have got the lion's share of that. then i think we could start to see rebalancing we're talking about for some time. iea last week certainly was giving some optimistic views both in terms of supply cuts but also deman

that is an impact on the opec cuts.rticular, a lot of the future of the dollar, we will see. it's interesting that saudi arabia tried to do that. the onet's listen in to what they are doing. >> i'm very happy with the compliance. i think the country is committed. we hope that in the months to calm similar or higher levels of compliance to the numbers mentioned. mark: do you share his optimism? will compliance leave -- deities 90% levels among opec members? -- >> we will set that to one side. due to the heavy lifting, compliances very strong. we are talking about figures closer to 100% when you take it in the round. we said earlier, they do face shareholders and members who are not subject to the agreement. libya has production coming back. nigeria has some project coming back. -- production coming back. there is control and people will start asking if they will renew the deal for another six-month area -- month. -- months. vonnie: nigeria's hampered by militants. kuwait, all of these other countries that might have an i

it is definitely opec and also russia.he driving force for me was russia, talking about russia for the first time in history. and the leadership of vladimir putin excepted to make some cuts, was the driver. it gives the argument to change policy. if they want to have an impact on the markets, which means to see inventories at going down, it will be to have expanded beyond may. they are planning their priorities to be compliant with what they announced. is a good news for this industry. >> what about shale? does that play into this at all? >> it plays. the shale oil industry in the u.s. is very dynamic. $65, you see money coming back into this industry. >> you say you see -- think it is quite expensive? >> today if i want to acquire a $80 per, i need to get barrel. it is a matter, the step to invest is expensive. $40,000 for an acre is very expensive. >> you increased your dividends, beat analysts' estimates. you say it will continue beyond may. do you think bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i must fully confess.

to start with one of the key challenges of the last six months, the reduction in supply after this opec-non-opec towards the end of last year. how is that affecting your efforts and investments in iraq? >> good morning. the decision by opec to cut production at the end of last year is impacting all the and non-opecopec countries. in terms of our opportunities in iraq, we are working according to the commitments and decisions made by the ministry of oil and instructions that decide which oil fields to produce how much. isthis stage, lukoil producing 400,000 or as a day from the westfield, and we are maintaining that, so no real impact for now. yousef: what about the broader strategy for the region? , butis a key part of that you have said iran is on your radar. perhaps a lot of concern by oil producers is the new administration under donald and what that could mean for relationships with iran. does that distract from your and dishes to make business with iran? >> you mentioned that lukoil is russia's second largest oil producer. in fact, we are the second largest oil company privately in terms of

listening to the interview with a opec secretary-general, he was reiterating that 100% compliance on curves. oil, ishe lake up in the above $54 question mark -- $54? su: that was a big question. let's take a look at the fact that oil is at an eight week high. what you see here is the output, thersus the blue is the u.s. buildup in supply. it is near an all-time high. the white line sharply drop, the output. in termse big veterans is thatrading tells us we are seeing record bets in hedge funds betting on a long position. that it is going to go higher. a lot of that has to do with the expectation, is not the demand that opec extent their agreement for these cuts. there is an indication that is going to happen. that is where the smart money appears to be placing their bets. we are seeing a big move higher by almost 9% last week in the number of net long bets on oil. yvonne: thank you. speaking of moving higher. let's look at the tokyo shares. as 128back as many million of its own shares for up to $880 million. the shares up 10% right now. talking about the price tag, that is a significa

this shows you the strap that opec faces.the world is coming to an end in the 70's and then we get the second bout of oil here. then we get what they are really afraid of. downwas a shocking plunge and we are right back there as they should be right now. is this still a cartel? >> it is a cartel that has lost a lot of its way. not because of compliance issues -- we used to call it cheating -- that is always going to continue. things are changing. context has changed in the united states and every time the price starts getting higher people in this country come out of the woodwork and start producing. +++ essentially has lost its stranglehold, a lot of its leverage that it used to have over the market. francine: but at the same time, we heard opec cuts of had a big impact on the oil market. there was a sweet spot in early 2000 where they did have influence and they lost that influence because they never veered. could they come back or is that game over? >> i think the word is influence. they are not irrelevant. influence and c

i think the price action goes to show how much focus is being paid to opec.came that sumed it from a goldman analyst saying they are not worried about stockpile data because the rest of the world shows tightening supply, i.e. opec. moment of truth coming up this friday and monday. it should be exciting times. shery: we will be looking forward to that. andoarse we are seeing wti brent gaining ground. brent gaining the most since february 1. crude past $55 per barrel. coming up on "bloomberg markets: middle east," saudi arabia hitting a potential snag in his latest sale. the details are next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ alarm clock beeping ] weather. ♪ [ laughter ] cartoons. wait for it. [ cat screech ] [ laughter ] ♪ [ screaming ] [ laughter ] make everyday awesome with the power of xfinity x1... hi grandma! and the fastest internet. [ girl screaming ] [ laughter ] i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. bu

estimates ualists' and opec will continue beyond may.you think the bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i'm not convinced. we are in a volatile market. yes, there is a positive trend and the markets are willing to go up but you have negative impacts. and libya coming back to the market. will all the country be ready compliant? so all poll cyst and strategies is to continue to lower. it's an industry and commodity where my problem is that we are profitable with the prices and the answer is yes. >> cleveland said loretta messer continues and sam explains why he stokes to put his money in the stack and australia prime minister tells us how it is to deal directly with president trump. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: welcome back to "bloomberg best". i'm david westin. many of our interviews touched on the facts of donald trump's presidency. it's hard to find a political leader who does not have strong opinions on the impact his administration is making. here are some of the most interesting conversations on trump, beginning with malcolm

opece about $50, that is -- think about opec, what they are stopping is the doomsday , 20 or into the is what we were talking about a year and a half ago. that's what this -- francine: how does it translate into inflation expectations? does this have an impact in the psychology of consumers? i thought low oil prices mean people had more money to spend but did not filter through that much in the last three years? >> it depends where you are coming in the u.k., prices rose 20%, prices elsewhere rising from -- rising modestly. we have growth and job creation and wage is starting to rise, wages rising faster, not too much a distraction to consumer spending. francine: what do we know about show gas in the u.s., executive orders in terms of non-regulation and pipelines, will weeks for production from shell gas -- will weeks per reduction from shell gas? i think it is the economics, the permian basin, 20 of m&a activity because cost of come barrel,0, $55 per players are looking at real economic players, that will do a great deal more but -- francine: a consensus -- are they so different that

is 9-1.o before the opec deal it was to-one. we've seen periods of that optimism briefly before in 2014. they were usually followed by a correction. there is an interesting debate in the market about whether positioning is signaling a correction to come. if you look at something simple like the 50 day moving average we've seen brent and wti did below their moving average. there could be something changing here. and abu dhabi. thank you. we will tell you why singapore airlines is betting on higher oil prices despite the current weakness. >> first we get to our exclusive and rare interview with the ceo of the qatar national bank on why he is looking to southeast asia. we will ask about the implications of the new u.s. administration. this is bloomberg. >> qatar national bank eyeing southeast asia for a possible expansion as it tries to diversify. it's an interesting conversation we had with the ceo. runs one of the largest financial institutions in the middle east. here is what he had to say. as long as it hits our strategy, it fi

saying non-opec supply growth has been revised up. is u.s.ply growth growing to grow fast enough -- going to grow fast enough? >> that will be a bigger problem in 2018 than it is now. yes, we think that, are recovering a couple hundred thousand barrels per quarter, but i don't think it's big enough by itself to be a big problem until late this year, going into next year. saudi is going to be tested still as we get to the first half of 2018. but everything that is happening now so far is better than i think history would have suggested in terms of past behavior. alix: an when you taked a look at market positioning, $51 for wti, $55 for brent, how our markets position for that? >> well, i think the markets are fine. there are other variables that we are going to have to watch. you talked about u.s. production coming back. the other one is the border adjustment tax. back in be a real, getting factor, if it actually comes to pass. there are a lot of other reasons why that border adjustment tax is going to be imposed by various parties. there are

they really opec -- do believe that opec has returned to the helm of austerity in oil prices. back? it seems it that they have re-grasped the net. strongthere is a determination in opec. there have been a lot of challenges. that says something about the determination. i think opec will definitely adhere to the quotas, at least to some extent because of that determination. there will be an impact from the opec policies. exactly how much that turns out to be is still a challenge. there is still uncertainties when it comes to the commodity environment. anna: thank you very much for spending time with us this morning. the ceo of statoil on daybreak: europe. next, a conversation with the world's biggest reinsurer. he joins anna and i. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. the australian dollar against the u.s., no change in central bank policies. a great time to tell you we have launched a new show. bloomberg has launched a new daybreak australia show. you can get your day started and or finish your day. they break australia. every day. out of sydney. i

it's not only opec but it's also non-opec. want to have an impact , it will be to have extended beyond may. it seems to be good news for the industry. >> what about shale? the u.s. in the -- the u.s. industry is very dynamic. you see money coming back into the industry. >> you think it's quite extensive? invest towant to acquire a position, if i want to acquire a position, i need to get to $80 per barrel. the step to invest is -- is expensive. we are the winners for the time but $40,000 per acre is expensive. >> you increase your dividends and beat analyst estimates and you have described how it looks like opec will continue beyond may. do you think bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i'm not fully convinced. we are in a volatile market. trend and iive think the market is willing to go up but you have negative impacts potentially. oil will increase and libya will come back into the market. will they become pliant? -- will they become compliant? commodity where my job is to make sure we are profitable no matter what the

is this one of the problems of this deal struck by opec and non-opec members, to cut production and elsewhereother producing nations trying to fill in the gap? >> i think that is definitely the big concern for opec right now. one thing we have seen in the early part of this year is that shale production is coming back very strongly with these high prices above $50 a barrel. american producers are drilling again. they are producing more oil, and clearly that is limiting the price impact of opec's cut. it is the same story we were talking about, saudi arabia versus shale, and i think we will be talking about that for the rest of the year. >> the big story and nation has been softbank could it has agreed to buy fortress investment group for $3.3 billion. give us some background on this acquisition. why is this happening right now? guest: just as investors and analysts begin to wrap their mind around masayoshi son's investment thesis, you have a deal like this. fortress is a fairly traditional asset management company. they have about $70 billion of assets in their portfolio, half of that is fixe

not the saudis, not the opec states anymore. and trump's policies are clearly favorable for cheaper production costs and therefore more production gains out of the united states. so on balance, despite all the geopolitical tensions in the world, i think that energy looks more bearish than bullish. >> the federal reserve official in charge of regulation will resign this spring. daniel tarullo who has worked at the central bank it's single 2009 did not give a reason for his departure. it gives an opportunity to reshape the board. and there are reports late today that the white house is not planning on taking its immigration order to the supreme court. last night, we told that you an appeals court upheld the block on the president's travel ban. >>> still ahead, is there potential trouble brewing in europe that investigators. >> investors need to pay attention on? >>> the food and drug administration approved a treatment for muscular dystrophy, a rare type that we've been reporting on. the drug is made by marathon pharmaceuticals an

opec top official said the group will push for full compliance with supply cuts. i will not steal any supper but what i will tell you is that falling as earlier much as six point 8%, the biggest decline since 2009. fourth-quarter profit miss estimates. it will boost cutting measures and extend a stock buyback. world.gest miner in the topping commodity prices surging from increased demands in china. similar story for anglo american. vonnie. vonnie: we are staying with hsbc. bloomberg's gadfly columnist who covers finance and markets. not a great set of results for hsbc. of brexite first time fallout, is at the bank and the banks in general that will lead the downturn? not yet. we are quite confident in seeing .o impact yet i think what you're seeing here is disappointment because the excitement and expectation around banks recently has been very high, especially surrounding this trump driven pledge for deregulation. hopes for cap overturned or some kind of improvement on the interest rate outlook. when you see the results coming in, even the $1 billion buyback, it

european oil joints grappling with the new reality of an opec supply cuts boosting the price of oil, we will discuss the outlook for -- mark: a look at what european equities are trading, under 30 minutes until the finish of the tuesday session, stocks are rising, not in these two countries. these currencies are falling against the dollar, the euro down the 6/10 of 1%, political risk reflected in the price of the euro. the greek two-year about 10% -- 9% today, 72.6 basis points, in the green, between creditors and greece, yields falling elsewhere, commodities. we will talk about oil later. raisensurer plans to dividend payout. fourth-quarter profit declined more than estimated 29% on higher claims for natural -- companiesey like this are struggling with subdued demand and struggling in lowes, amid a five years of claims from natural catastrophes at the same time, ultralow interest rates curbing investment returns and shares little changed today, the little change over the last 12 months. pandora today, shares down as much as 7%, the biggest decline since february last year, this is t

what is opec doing in light of this?orecast compared to last , is opecrom last week looking at accelerating it? how much of a problem is this? >> they are targeting those stockpiles. cut.menting a six-month opec is able to say we are taking production off of the market but holding out that production comes back on at the end of the year. that makes prices a little bit higher but does not give them much impetus to rise. that should take some storage off. you mentioned the u.s. supplies. . think we have more to come going up. rent the shale story is not over. shale is part of the supply equation going forward. we see administration in donald trump and the united states that oil.vorable to allow for that could continued ramp up of u.s. oil. u.s. oil is here to stay. we have that whole supply demand equation that is going to balance out. >> thank you very much. the global trade environment is showing an uncertain time. let's take a closer look at the story. mark.g us now, fantastic having you on the program. context,r viewer

crude output back up, putting pressure on this opec deal.o you think they should have been more aggressive about the amount of oil they are taking out of the market, or do you think him summer that they need to extend this further to help the rebalancing? higher oil prices have done is encourage more producers to bring more oil to the market. >> the u.s. gas and oil, the , the shale oiln and gas you have in the u.s. is abundant, something we can bring on and off very quickly. i think the u.s. has become the swing producer of our industry, and this is something we have to deal with and we expect it to happen for the long-term come up at this is something that is not worrying to me. i think there are ups and downs in the business that we have to as awith and move on, but business, which you need to control is what you can control, your costs and develop the best reserves you can. >> closing question, a new administration in the white , toe, a volatile few weeks what extent does this disrupt your plans for international expansion, the fact that

>> i think that is a big concern for opec right now. of production is coming back very strongly with these high prices above $80 a barrel. america -- $50 a barrel. americans are drilling again, they are producing more oil, and clearly that is limiting the price impact of opec to cut. it is the same story we were talking about, saudi arabia versus shale, and i think we will be talking about that for the rest of the year. >> softbank has agreed to buy investment groups for $3.3 billion. you us some background on this acquisition. why is this happening right now? guest: just as investors and analysts begin to wrap their mind among the investment thesis, you have a detail like fairlyortress is a traditional asset management company. they have about $70 billion of assets in their portfolio, half is fixed income, basically bonds . in addition, they have a rather eclectic collection of investments that includes a tv company, wireless spectrum, as well as some assets like a railway company in florida and hotels in japan. it is not clear if it f

we have seen a lot of optimism around the opec production cuts.have been watching positioning. record bullish positioning of money managers on wti futures. are they going to start paying more tension to u.s. shale ahead of the iea -- i should say eia -- report and after that api report? that remains to be seen. matt: what is going to happen to bring oil prices up, if anything? are we going to have to see more cuts, or is opec just going to have to hold to the production cuts it has promised already? it is a great question. it is difficult to find an upwards catalyst for oil at the moment. wee of the big catalysts have seen so far are on the downside. if you look at something simple, for instance, the dollar rallying yesterday, that helped push oil prices a bit lower. we have seen the price of wti and brent oil fall below their 50 day moving averages for the first time since opec actually announced those production cuts, and then, away from those technical factors, we have a really big debate going on in oil markets right now about what that extrem

anna: if opec cuts, you sign up, too?e in the process of natural decline in our production, incorporated into the business plan, so our contribution has been a managed natural decline of our production. anna: let us have about the upcoming block auctions we have as theco with that backdrop. economic uncertainty in mexico in the wake of the trump election. will the industry look to speed up investments in the oil sector in some of those block options? is that something you are looking to? aldo: we come already from a very successful run of auctions that incorporated onshore fields. we are going to repeat that for 2017 and 2018. hopefully, with more speed and surface included. anna: how much more quickly are you hoping to move? aldo: we already has scheduled three more rounds for june and july that already brings substantial -- substantially more month. -- more amounts. we are planning. anna: a successful deepwater will auction last year attracted some players in the deepwater space, big producers. is there going to be anot

stockpile data and looking ahead to those opec figures.e second-biggest weekly jump on for u.s. stockpiles come out yesterday, and yet, oil basically bumped up a little bit around $52 a barrel. that shows you that the market is really squarely focused on those opec production cuts, which means again, the moment of truth is coming very soon. we'll have the iea report on friday and then opec's monthly report sometime monday morning. die, matt. matt: tracy, thanks very much. tracy alloway talking about the oil markets. surveillance with francine andua or you can join me guy on bloomberg radio. check it out on tv . ♪ francine: the deputy ceo of socgen tells us the prospect of france leaving the eurozone is not on his radar. --we consider that [indiscernible] francine: brexit moves closer as the u.k. parliament approves theresa may's triggering of article 50, but not before a musical protest. >> order. order! francine:

all i can tell you is the level of commitment we have received from non-opec and opec member countries are in regular of contact with them. tomorrow we meet in vienna. we are going to go for much higher levels of compliance because of the very high level of stocks that we have brought over with us from 2016. >> when you will you get to 100% -- when will you get to 100% compliance? >> we hope to achieve 100% in due course. >> i am hearing opec members are exporting more in the month of february. can you allay fears on that? ofthis is the first month implementation. the numbers that we have confirm that all the participating countries are struggling very hard to ensure that they implement their toigations 100% and i want align myself with the saudi arabia is that anything less than 100% is not satisfactory. >> the market is driven by a number of factors and one is compliance. the bedding in the market -- there are two things driving the market price and one is the hedge fund market. i put it to you that with either an extension of the deal and the hedge funds being committed, you will fi

in particular of note in that report was that opec crude production fell by 1 million barrels per dayn january. suggesting that there was -- >> the cut is happening. . strong initial compliance with the deal. as we said, oversupply and elevated stockpiles more broadly will remain for the rest of the first half of the year. oil has had two days of gains in a row, week to date is still down, a half percent with today's gains on pace to end a three-week winning streak. oil at this moment will be down a half percent. >> the headline there is that opec implemented 90% of the cut in january. fulfilling its promise to go forward, which was one big question. >>> the u.s. dollar, show you what's happening there. the key today is the middle. dollar/yen is stronger. yen weaker. that's a signal of risk taking. 113.65. the reason i say it's the one to watch, any tensions between prime minister abe and president trump specifically on currencies or that trade deficit, that's the one that could be disruptive. a stronger yen would signal concern. >> interesting to see the dollar will end the week stro

we get the next opec report, wouldn't that go down to 70%, 80%? >> i think there's a decent chance they maintain the compliance levels between 80 and 100% is where they're at. the latest secondary source put it at 91%. that's very impressive. a lot of that is lede edby saud arabia. they cut well below what they expected back in november. they are producing less than 10 million barrels a day. that's where we need to see the key change in move. nigeria and libya are exempt, we'll see what they bring in terms of additional production. >> as oil prices go higher, there's always the incentive to ramp up production again. that's what the u.s. producers are doing. wouldn't the saudis do the same, you think? >> i think the saudis have changed policy and will be disciplined. the u.s. production will be the key differential going forward. that's where the supply will now come from. the u.s. could increase production this year in the range of 300,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels a day. we've already seen the rig count tick up month on month by around 65% to 70