the opec bus crisis is deepening. -- opec-plus crisis is deepening.rabia versus uae, it is unprecedented for both countries. they chose one destination, bloomberg television. >> i would emphasize it is the whole group versus one country. which is sad to me, that this is the reality today. >> how concerned are you, if there is no agreement and potentially we could see what we saw last year, which becomes a price war? >> we have an existing agreement. i keep reminding people. we have an existing agreement and we will honor the agreement and continue with it. the agreement requires we bring more production, yes, but keep honoring the agreement, we should kickstart what is mentioned in the agreement, which is we have to extend. again, the extension puts a lot of people in their comfort zone. it is [indiscernible] check with all of those who are participating in this market. >> -- has no production increase for august. if not every member signs up tomorrow, what happens in august? >> well, it is your chance to have may another interview with me tomorrow or

opec-plus in crisis.d the uae failed to resolve their differences, blocking a deal to boost output.

the uae is the only holdout inside of opec that is enough because under the opec charter, all deals must be unanimous. what is next according to nearly every piece of research over the last couple of days, oil is likely headed up because with no new deal, that means no new barrels being added to the market. with demand up and no new supply inter from opec, some called for $100 a barrel in the months ahead that could mean $5 or more per gallon of gas. there is another scenario. one where the united arab emirates ignores the opec deal and beginning pumping more barrels on its own or decides to leave the group opec all together that is unlikely and sources i spoke within the emirates over the weekend told me that is not their ideal situation and they do not want to do that it does remain a possible outcome, however small if the uae does begin pumping more barrels, other countries may decide they need to do the same or risk losing market share. if that happens, and a small chance, but if it did happen, it could result in a 2020 market share battle and tumbling oil and gas prices for its part

opec-plus seals the deal agree to inject more crude into the economy, overcoming a split between saudi arabia and the uae. as oil is falling, looking at the rest of markets, starting to show a strong risk aversion this morning. it's clear in the bond market, usually the asian session is greeted by bond selling after bond buying in the u.s. session and that is not the case this morning. we are seeing 10 year and 30 year dropped to their lowest this year. that is below 1.28% on the 10 year and 1.9% on 30 year. oil lower as we see a stronger dollar this morning after an opec bus agreement. over to equity, we see those stocks lower, the msci asia-pacific down, 1.2% is about what we are seeing. the futures market indicating a weaker open both when it comes to the europe and u.s. session. when you look at the u.s. equity picture, small caps are taking it on the chin. the russell 2000 leading losses, pointing to cyclical concerns, virus case concerns plaguing the market as we head to a fed blackout. let's turn to so

dani: opec is likely to be behind the curb.n if they did want to catch up or put enough supply out into the market to match the demands for the summer, do they have the capacity to do that. the spare capacity -- is spare capacity a concern? >> a great question. the simple answer is they don't have enough capacity. saudi arabia, uae, kuwait have invested. at throughout the pandemic but generally they have the capacity. for example, the last two months they have been struggling to raise production, even with higher opec-plus. a lot of countries, and you are seeing this in nigeria and angola, so much decline rates accelerating, and so much last year when oil prices crashed. it has been very difficult for a lot of countries to maintain production let alone grow it. so the headline number of the 5.8 million barrels of the capacity that opec-plus has, we think it's less than half of that. yousef: who's going to be the wild here in the opec-plus group. every time around there is somebody doing something they are not supposed to be doi

worry galore >>> we have a deal opec and allies.t news. >>> pulling the plug bill ackman backing out of the spac of the 10% of music andrew was even having a hard time explaining it let's just not we have details and interview with mr. ackman. it is monday, july 19th, 2021. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin along with

opec and opec plus are meeting virtually to talk about future production opec seems to hold all of theed in the last nine months. the world is watching and waiting for output increase from the group. they cut 2 million barrels a day during the pandemic. and given the surge in global demanded, is that pricing at $80 a barrel or more we have goldman sachs' jeff currie what is the heexpectation today? >> we are in view with the 500,000 per day. is that enough resounding no. during the month of june, we estimate that the market was in a 2.3 million barrel per day deficit. that's the biggest since last summer which is representative of the surge in demand you referred demand is surging for the summer travel season. drilling was down last week in the u.s. it is not enough to decline the rates. 29% of opec cannot reach quota because of lack of investment. that really leaves core opec and gcc countries as the only game in town. >> that is a really, really interesting point you made, jeff we talk about adding more barrels to the market. it sounds like because of lack of investment, there may be

it is not only opec not seeing demand but opec is in a pickle in terms of where we might see strandeddifferent world. what this dispute is really about is about a country, namely the uae, that has found a way out. found a way to monetize its resources before they -- of the same value they are today and to use that monetization and the resources to change the nature of the economy. that is not going to end anytime soon. rishaad: the thing about all this is with prices where they are and opec you very strict -- opec being very strict, as in this a sweet spot for people to -- isn't this a sweet spot for people to cheat? >> it would be if they could cheat. who can cheat? the uae can cheat. iraq has tried to. companies are moving out because they don't like the terms. iraqi production is peaking. if we look across opec countries, more of them have lost capacity. it is really saudi arabia, russia potentially. the uae that are the ones that add significantly more oil to the market. not a lot of people -- not a lot of other countries can cheat. the uae sees the wisdom of not making waves righ

that plunged opec-plus into crisis.loomberg has been told russian government hackers breached the computer systems of the republican national committee last week. sources say were part of a group that has been tied to the kremlin for an intelligence service. the group has previously been accused of breaching the democratic national committee into any 16 and a cyberattack involving sober -- solarwinds. they denied the systems were breached. chinese president xi xiping is warning against politicizing the pandemic. much of his speech was devoted to discussing china's willingness to work with other countries. the rhetoric used from addressing the nation last week, saying china cannot be coerced or bullied. president biden is appealing to americans who have not been vaccinated against covid-19 to do so. biden missed his fourth of july deadline for having 70% of american adults partially vaccinated and 160 million people fully vaccinated. speaking at the white house, he discussed the dangerous -- dangers of the delta variant.

if communities in the opec+ group -- if unity within the opec+ group makes down entirely, it could crash prices. you could see a repeat of the thing we saw last year where it was free fall" races crashed and the market turned negative. -- crude prices crashed and the market turned negative. haidi: is u.s. shale waiting for full capacity to resume at opec? you talk about the tightness in the market? will the ultimately a stronger driver? aaron: everyone is really waiting to see what opec does. the ramifications are large depending on whether there is an agreement to lift output or the group breaks apart, the unity that we have seen since last year breaks down and there is a free for all a lot is riding on these negotiations and i think that a lot of people make decisions based on what we see that meeting hopefully later today. sophie: asia energy editor eric mark -- aaron clark, thank you. markets are vulnerable with possible triggers in the inflation scare, u.s. deeper talks, and the delta variant setbacks. we are joined by shane oliver. on the inflation front. opec+ dispute when it come

opec really the big one here.s debate happen on bloomberg tv between opec finance ministers. energy minister's, rather. it is also making a difference in europe because the stoxx 600 is up zero point 1%. it really is u.k. energy, basic resources helping lift us further. you can see the u.k. outperforming, up 0.3%. we also have a deal, a possible deal of a private equity company bidding at the moment for morrison. socgen says maybe others will want to bid for that u.k. grocery store. let's roll it over and see what our next board is. we have our asian data. one of the remarkable things is looking at what happened in china. we get china cracking down on didi, the ride-hailing app. china cracking down on data collection. still, chinese equities into the day higher. we also had tech ending higher. in europe, a pretty negative session. the hang seng down. in japan, equities doing a similar thing as well. some softness in the dollar versus the yen. a lot of geopolitical crosscurrents, and because it is july 5, none of t

in opec as a result of this.t is more about allowing them to capacity and not necessarily allowing someone like iran to take extra barrels. as you were saying, the backdrop is incredibly positive. we are drawing to million barrels a day at the moment, so the excess inventories we built up during the pandemic when nobody was flying and people were working from home and transport wasn't being utilized in the way it now is, we are drawing down on those reserves very quickly. at the same time, before we would say the relief valve would probably keep a lid on the oil price, but what we are seeing at the moment, it's before the pandemic that we were about 700 rigs being utilized in the states. the current number as of the second of july was just over 370. so there has been no response from the states in terms of trying to take a higher advantage -- trying to take advantage of a higher oil price. turning to the companies, obviously we've got the big major oil companies in the u.k. reporting in the next four weeks. i thi

i'm steve sedgwick the opec plus meeting ends in stalemate.alks breakdown with producers at odds over output. the biden administration calls for a compromise solution. >>> a french train maker warns of significant negative cash flow for the year due to the bom bombardier acquisition. >>> and trading near the top of the ftse 100 the uk supermarket giant expected better than expected first quarter sales. >>> and germany easing travel restrictions and prime minister boris johnson lifting all covid restrictions >> we are seeing cases rise rapidly. we are seeing rising hospital admissions we must reconcile ourselves to more deaths from covid >> you've got me today never mind let's move on. opec plus meeting and uae refused to back a supply deal without with conditions met. the opec secretary-general said a new meeting date will be decided in due course. the white house is concerned about the price increases. they weighed in with the biden administration calling for a compromise solution. an oil expert told cnbc the current disagreement talks about

what next for opec negotiations? said, the opec plus group abandoned their monday meeting. what happened is, there was a tentative deal to boost output. but that was upended by a disagreement between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates over how to measure production cuts. i think the immediate consequence of this collapse in talks is that that production hike expected for august will not take place. so, you know, that potentially leaps market short of barrels just as the global economy is really recovering from the covid-19 pandemic. like you said, we have seen response in oil markets. crude is trading above $77 a barrel in london. what happens next will really determine whether this breakdown in talks escalates into conflict , as destructive as the price for we saw last year. but i think we have to wait and see what happens next. haidi: does the u.s. still just as u.s. shale still wait and see what opec does or is there more flexibility for them to move more? >> i think we are still in a wait and see phase. th

opec-plus in crisis. saudi arabia and the uae failed to resolve their differences, blocking a deal to boost output. boris johnson lays out plans to end social distancing. personal responsibility replaces legal restraint. plus the final stretch. the ecb zeros in on a compromise in its biggest strategy review in almost two decades. warm welcome to the program. market is with us from singapore -- mark is with us from singapore. mark: a very exciting day. it is not all about oil prices but we are very focused on that story. in asia, oil has been a little bit better. there are quite a few other themes going on. oil prices and the fact we have had hawkish news out of new zealand and the rba. bonds on the back foot. the dollar weaker. chinese equities suffer yet again. a number of different tangents going on. just now we have seen german factory orders. quite a big disappointment. hitting the kind of consensus european recovery story. there is a lot going on people were not expecting 24 hours ago. anna: the euro

haidi: this is a question of whether the opec-plus deal impacts inflation. just a recap, the group reached an agreement to inject more oil into the global markets. >> it was important to decide this today. it gives markets clarity, it gives the market direction, it gives the market a vision of where we will be heading, and therefore, it enables people to understand that supply will come and how consciously it will come. haidi: the spring in mike mcglone. we know this is not changed longer-term structural story for oil, but how does a change things in the short term? >> i think the key thing to think about is crude oil has been an enduring bear market and it does, the upper end of the range, opec finally disagreed to bring more supply to the market. there is so much optimism for more demand. the key thing is crude oil risks are more on the downside, following copper and lumber and corn and soybeans, and crude oil has been the outlier. the high last week was around 75. we are see 71. a good way to look at the futures of crude oil, a year from now, i disclose t

the 10-year could crack below 1.5% there are concerns that the opec deal or opec itself could break upry for itself mode and putting more oil on the market a lot to do on a busy thursday we are back right after this here are the two battling to the line and allyson felix... simone manuel's above her trying to fight on, and above simone... getting an opportunity to show her stuff. nonstop, displayed at the highest performance level... finding something and the us takes gold! ♪ dream on ♪ ♪ dream on ♪ ♪ dream on ♪ ♪ dream on ♪ - yes! ♪ ahhhhhhh ♪ ♪ dream until your dreams come true ♪ >>> red alert. dow futures down 400 as stocks look to a possible summer swoon. bond yields tumbling as well >>> it is not just stocks. oil also down. growing concerns that the current opec deal or opec at risk of dumping more oil on the market. >>> and the biggest ceo jamie dimon says get back to the office and fast. will other ceos do the same? it is thursday, july 8th this is "worldwide exchange. >>> welcome or welcome back to the busy thursday morning. i'm brian sullivan here is how your money and investm

in -- opec-plus meets on output, crude jumps and leaves energy shares higher as the opec panel recommends a $4000 per peril hike from august. we discuss with ellen wall. plus, we speak with the ceo of a space launch company going public by a spac and will be the pursed -- first publicly traded space company on the nasdaq. later this hour, we speak with the interim ceo about a blockchain on the decision to list on the nasdaq. first, in the market this afternoon, we see the s&p 500 gaining an on the record as a closes at its level, 4310. at the moment, the u.s. 10 year yield rising but only to 147.64. it did touch 143 yesterday. the bloomberg dollar index is .25%. crude is the one to watch. coming close to the brent price at $75.26 per barrel. let's focus in on oil and get to that opec meeting. joining us now is the atlantic council global energy center senior fellow and also the author of the book saudi inca. talk to us first about this opec-plus meeting. they are going to hike output. is that locked in now, and why don't we see 400,000 barrels moving the price down? ellen: so it is not ex

it says the very top precedent for the other opec members. and i think you have to keep in mind there's some extra baggage with the enron in the saudis, with some speculation on how those 2 are going to handle development of hydrogen resources and coming years. and so, i mean, really, the simple issue is market share and capturing as much of a financial benefit as possible. as soon as possible. the concerns over the long term, the carbon is ation. they're emerging. and so when you think of the a, you know, they're running 4000000 barrels a day and they want to increase to 5000000 barrels a day. they're investing to do that. increase of 25 percent production over the next 10 years. and they're looking at basic math, they've got 50 years worth of oil at those kinds of run rates, assuming a $98000000000.00 uncertain dollar. 98000000000 barrel proven reserves. and there are and cs to diversify their well generating capacity away from oil in the timeframe where hydrocarbons are still a part of the global economy. they've got to ramp up production.

but that's not something any of the opec members want. you, you doesn't want that saudi arabia doesn't want. and they will know this is sort of post string on the part of the li, basically saying if you don't give me what i want, i'm going to blow up the world. so i think they'll find some sort of combination for you either come some, some sort of compromise will out say face, but we'll still have this production cuts in place by the end of july, probably in august sometime. and octavio russia is also very concerned about high oil prices, and they don't need a high of an oil prices. they saudi arabia or the u. a to show a profit. russia has been more hawkish while production increases, as they fear that they will actually lose market share to other producers. saudi arabia, on the other hand, is it worried about losing market share? as you just mentioned, they're raising prices for oil to all of their customers in europe, the u. s. and asia. so what would higher oil prices mean for russia in the situation? well, i think we can just say tha

they see opec striking a deal, some traders see the deal falling apart, opec members cheating, but eitherre supply is coming to the market. dani: but oil prices seem like they can't make up their minds. we had them rising initially, dropping. they are a touch higher today. what is driving volatility and is going to continue? >> that is the thing. there is so much uncertainty. oil sort of surged in asian and european trading yesterday. the feeling was there will be no output boost from opec-plus in august which is something markets had already priced in. we had the saudi arabians come up with their os piece -- os p. the official selling price for august. they are not planning and output boost. but there is still no certainty of that. markets did at least later in the day take their cue from these comments and they think opec will patch up its differences. dani: hopefully next time i can join you in the studio in dubai. oil a touch higher today. it does feel like this is a nervous brace for volatility. manus: i like what how we are said. the spread indicating $100 oil. dani: $100 oil. if th

opec, the other big story.ing at a pretty steady number when it comes to wti futures just slightly out, $75 a barrel and it looks like crude is getting closer to $76 a barrel but because of those gains that are being held onto, we are seeing cyclical stocks outperform. you will see the ftse 100 outperform. the oil majors located there. that means that some of the growth aspects of the market, the nasdaq 100, are not doing as strong today. speaking of opec-plus, talks are breaking down. the uae blocked a print no binary deal with saudi arabia that they forged with russia on output hikes. the meeting has been delayed until later today to resolve that dispute. this unexpected turn of events leaves consumers unsure whether the 400,000 dollars barrel a day increase for august -- through december will come to pass. let's get to the details on this with bloomberg's energy and commodities editor in singapore, andrew james. andrew, we have the uae rebelling but what does that mean for the market? we are seeing oil price

and as we talk about, there's a lot going on with opec. and without an agreement on production cuts or ramping up production, that is to say, opec will keep oil production at its current levels, which means it will under supply the global market by about $2000000.00 barrels of oil per day. can that lead to a $100.00 a barrel area and cause serious economic harm? well, i think it's clear that if they carry the current production levels, we're going to see a big increase in the oil price. now is it going to break through a $100.00 a barrel? quite possibly. better my back in 2008. we saw the price of oil break through $170.00 a barrel, so we can clean the have a lot of upward room in terms of oil prices. so if they, if they remain, and i think it's a very big if, if the remainder current production levels, we're going to see basically, oil prices spike a $100.00, i think is easily reachable. we might well go beyond a 100120. i didn't know how that will go. i think the sky is the limit there in terms of where we could get an oil prices, if the

another round of critical opec talks. they will try to break the stalemate between the saudi's and the uae. sophie: a few days of negotiation between saudi arabia and uae, which is left them without a deal. they don't expect the plan to extend an agreement or curb production beyond 2022 and less there is a higher baseline. >> uae has lost one third of its production capacity. many other countries have been given production, that is unsustainable. sophie: the saudi energy minister has responded, saying he cannot give to those demands. >> i would emphasize it the whole world versus one country. which is sad to me. >> how concerned are you, if there is no agreement and potentially we could see what we saw last year, which becomes a price for? >> we have an existing agreement. like we had a march. we have an existing agreement. we will honor that agreement. honoring that agreement, we have to accept it. again, this put lots of people in their comfort zone. check with all those who are participating. in this market. >> agreeme

kathleen: we have an opec-plus field. the group reached an agreement, overcoming a public feud between saudi arabia and the uae. >> it was important to decide this today. it gives markets clarity, it gives the market direction, it gives the market a vision where we are heading. therefore, it will enable people to understand how progressively the supply would come, and how cautiously it would also come. kathleen: let's bring in a commodities strategist. mike, does this change things, and is this a temporary change? we see changes on both sides of this frequently. mike: i think it is coming with crude oil, very elevated prices historically, and this probably puts a confirmation that it is more of a bear market bounce. opec has great capacity in the database. it is a matter of time and prices are doing that. we look at production and the rest of the world. u.s. shale, the highest price to cost of production ever, everyone is optimistic about demand. i see a high probability that this is the peak. and the key thing it needs i

there are risks if we have disagreement within opec, opec+. you look at what happened in april last year, the last time opec disagreed with internal members. so we have that hanging over us. there is a lot of crude that opec could bring back. as much as 8.5 million barrels that could be brought back if required. i'm also slightly concerned as we approach the 80 a barrel level, the benefit to -- increases sharply as you move above $80. i find it unlikely that the likes of russia would led the -- let the united arab emirates -- shery it: has to do with compliance. i have to see how much they priced in the level of the dollar. the 14 day rsi near overbought. where are you seeing the dollar and how does this factor into that $75, $80 a barrel arena and forecast? robert: we tend to see u.s. dollar continue to strengthen through the northern hemisphere summer. we're penciling in a move in the dxy index up to 93.5. that is not a material move. that is based on the idea that we should see continued sequential improvement in the u.s. job situation. the

a critical meeting taking place with opec, opec+. brent has moved sharply to the upside. up by .3%.nd is up a bit, the euro is absolutely flat. nuclear sense of direction. a little volatility in the dollar as a result of payroll but that faded fast. faded past the treasury market as well. take a look at what is happening with rotation in stocks and where we have seen that rotation taking place over the last five days. this is the last five days. we need goals, health care -- media, moguls, health care. the bottom end of the market, banks down by 2.4%. the car sector down by 1.75%. maybe taking a little bit of a breather. selling back to buy some of those health care stocks may be but that is where we see the weakness coming through. today, single stocks we are focusing on, rolls-royce starting to resolve some of the big issues it has had. the huge engine like the 787, good news. market rewarding that. travel sector, some recovery but no clarity seems to be the position. ryanair talking about a positive story for the rest of the summer but it still feels like we're going to be signif

we have the opec element to it.not forget there is an issue with the pandemic and the way the error -- emirates have pushed away in fighting the pandemic which is about collaborating with china on the vaccine and using the vaccine widely within the uae and the vaccine has not been effective. there is a good point to be made to say let's limit the influx of emiratis into the kingdom because there is an issue with the delta variant that is widely spread in the uae. the uae is seen as a reckless country because of their high infection rates and the delta variant being widely spread and the vaccine program being inefficient. this is not just political. there are important underlying issues when it comes to fighting the pandemic. >> better than safe. another issue. sticking with the economy is saudi arabia has recently amended rules on imports from other gulf countries that would affect goods made in free zones. they are a major driver of the economy. what do you make of that move? >> again, like she said, there are a ho

opec's been around for 60 years.to to be revised also, you have to ask the question, does this type of tension really reach the level of sort of gravity that should allow opec to let this snowball into a full sort of free for all marked share competition because at the other end of a free-for-all market share competition lies another deal. we all know that so there's going to be a deal of some sort anyway i think all the main parties sort of know this. there is time to sort this out >> yeah. >> i think in the end the solution will be reached >> there are three possible outcomes, martin i'm going to ask you to play a game with us this is no game. global prices and gasoline prices are the outcome here are the three outcomes i think. number one, opec does come together they ratify this 400,000 or more barrels a day. maybe they put the extension, deadline, baseline on the side that deal gets done to add more barrels. option two, nothing gets done. as you heard abdulaziz bin salman, or the third option which is unlikely b

let's focus on opec.n into 2022 sending -- spending sending crude prices lower. the compromised deal overcomes an internal split that threatened opec's control of the crude markets. let's get a perspective on this energy story with our energy reporter who is with us. good to speak to you. how is the market reacting to the new opec-plus pact? >> the market was not expecting that opec would be able to come to a deal in august. the uae could not come to an agreement on august supply increase but they were able to do a last-minute deal over the weekend. that caught some of the folks offguard. the extra supply is lowering prices right now. and as we go forward over the next few months and add more supply, that will have a bearish impact in the short term as the deficit of supply gets shrunk from the opec production. anna: what does that mean for the longer-term? what does that mean for oil prices for the next year? >> this does not mean it is bearish further out. there are some analysts, goldman sachs for exam

issue opec plus issue? well firstly, good day to you and good day to your guests and all your years. i think in the spirit of divergence, i won't. my analysis in my thoughts won't diverge very much from what they seem to guess are ready, said indeed, you know, i would like to mimic or reinforce this notion of leadership and projection. and there are some fashion in sovereignty, but will, and that kind of leads very well to answering your question. because i don't see side to ravia or that the saudi oil minister to try to negotiate or, or concede anything. because now it seems to be a stand off. it doesn't have to be this way. and as the under a said, you know, it, it is a 0 on fashion. it, it seems to be a perception to 0 some fashion or are common. it's a common perception in the goals. it doesn't have to be this way, but that's how some states view things. so i, it will be very interesting to see who will try to concede 1st. so i don't see our very best standing down because this is more of a projection o

we dive into the latest developments and the petro sector, and what it means to the future of opec then, is being called the single largest global ransomware attack on record. so how many companies have been impacted, and will hackers $5070000000.00 bitcoin ransom? they are demanding ads later. chinese ride hayley giant dd has seen its doc tag as it finds itself among a handful of us listed firms coming under fire from regulators in china with the pack show today. let's dive right in and we leave the program with the energy sector now over the weekend, you undoubtedly solving now viral videos of a ruptured gas pipeline in the gulf of mexico, which then flames boiling to the surface of waters west of mexico. you could have peninsula many describe what was seen in the footage as an eye of fire. so what happened? well, on friday, just after 5 am local time get started. taking from the pipeline, operated by mexican state, run oil giant pemex, less than 6 hours later operation return to normal according to the company, which reported no injuries. the company which has had a history of accide

so i think if you sick about what opec needs to do is provides to -- if you think about what opec needse stability, there will be a mutual review of this and say, you know what? it is in all of our benefit as we go through this. don't have clear sight of the near term, so we've got to keep it managed through this period where we are still seeing a surplus. taylor: pushes forward to july 26 -- push us forward to july 26 earnings, when we will really hear from some of these companies. what do you need to give you more confidence that it is not just that opec is the only thing holding this together? christyan: what we need is to see cash and cash return in spades. i've had so many discussions around what is the real oil price that you officially say, who cares? let's look at how much free cash flow they can generate. the upside is there with the equities, and that is when equities respond with $70, $80, or whatever oil price. to answer you directly, i think it is ultimately the buyback cash return kicking in in the second half combined at some point, i would argue that 20% of your foam --

a lot of this of course is the opec, you know, opec and opec plus and the united arab emirate and saudiressures, the pricing pressures , the inflationary pressures and of course it brings it back to the argument is inflation transitory, is it here to stay, and what have you. notably it did hit that high and most of the energy stocks and oil stocks are down pretty dramatically off that high, and so it looks like it was a little bit of a push on the news and we'll have to see if oil holds $ 73, $70 and where it falls back and if there's any major selling momentum or if it just sort of falls back into place with the global demand, as you say, increased travel, et cetera. neil: you think about it, erin, we've been kind of sanguine about all of this or the markets have been bond yields have held relatively stable, but then, i looked and they really tumbled a little bit here, where we're around 1.36% on a 10 year note and i'm beginning to wonder, is the market factoring in something else here? in other words, besides the steady as she goes or the price front that maybe those prices themselves

how much of an impact did the opec agreement have? and how much was fueled by concern that global demand could be offset by the rising coven cases? well as of friday, you already starting to hear rumors that opec was going to actually come to some level of agreement. and just to rehash what the agreement is, is that going to drop, excuse me, increase the production 540-0000 barrels per month until they get to the $5800000000.00 barrels per day that they had been doing before the whole coven started. so there's good news and there's bad news to that. obviously if you're an oil ball, it's not such good news if you're hoping for some kind of reprieve at the pounds, maybe we'll see some of that which would be great. but on the other hand, is a good thing because if there were no agreement, and if opec was really showing itself as being sort of an out of control, then you would probably get into a situation where you would have individual countries deciding to turn the stick it on and let oil flow freely and now there's some uniformity the

last in a while -- opec-plus in a while.going to see whether or not saudi arabia and russia are going to be able to bridge the divide. prices have surged this year. wti is up more than 50%. the russians would like to increase production. they think opec-plus is getting into dangerous territory as far as oil prices are concerned and it is better for the group to turn on the taps and boost supplies for saudi arabia, which along with russia, effectively leaves open less, much more cautious. it is saying we are not through the crisis yet. there still could be pressures on oil demand. the saudi arabians are saying let's hold on or if we increase production, let's be careful. russia and others would like the cartel to go on faster. anna: given oil is up, why wouldn't opec-plus increase the supply, increase production, bring more supply onto the market at this point? does it just depend on whether you want these prices higher or not? >> most analysts and traders are expecting an increase in supply beyond july. the consensus is for

part of this epic opec impasse opec was scheduled to meet again virtually yesterday and called it offarabia and russia declared to participate in the call because they thought it wasn't going to amount to anything. what is going on is complicated and, of course, it goes beyond oil so here are some of the key headlines in addition to that nice graphic we made first, opec officially did have a deal to raise output by 400,000 barrels a day from august through december. that all but agreed upon before last thursday's planned one-day meeting. remember, opec cut production by millions of barrels during the height of the pandemic with each member country taking a share of their cuts well, those cuts are based on specific baseline levels, basically what can you produce we'll cut some off that. there you go, and as part of this deal opec tried to get done last week. we were going to extend the baseline levels from may of next year all the way through december of 2022 here's the problem look at that chart seems a little bit weird the blue line is how much the uae can produce, so that extension

it's all to do with opec plus. if you don't come to an agreement, people will start increasing production on their own and things will fall apart. i think week or two, may be three weeks, they will come back together and they mould make some kind of compromise. something like this has to happen. the positions have been firmly stated so right away, they can compromise. the prices will strengthen in that period of time. >> i want to talk more about incentives because the price of oil is above pretty much break even now. we're showing this to the viewers. why is the incentive for the group to come up with a deal and not let oil prices move up further? [indiscernible] >> we're going to try to fesharaki, technical difficulties. what price of oil do these countries start making money or losing money. i guess at this point, at what point does oil price go up that it starts to eating into consumption? rishaad: we haven't talked about the role shell plays. shell has put a cap on what's going on. that breaks even much higher

saudi arabia and russia and opec agreed with 2 million barrels a day. to extend the end of the deal which is march 2022 that is where the biggest issue is for uae they are effectively saying if they consent, they are demanding a higher quota underlying all ts is uae which is putting more money and cap expense into the production and launched the futures contract. there is a bigger push from the uae to raise production versus the other ws who are focused on the stability of the market. >> for americans, this is the weekend to travel. fourth of july weekend upon us and no deal reached at the opec level. what does that mean for gas prices which are above $3 right now? >> i think this is the most critical question that you asked. usually if you think about it, opec meetings are about cutting production when something is going wrong and prices need to be shored up. this is raising production if there is no an grgreement to raise production, there is a dea deal in place through 2022 to your point, demand is rising sharply. actually, a no-deal situation is ext

coming up on this program, opec-plus in crisis. the standoff between saudi arabia and the uae leaves oil markets in limbo. we hear from the ministers at the center of this falling out. plus europe's industry bosses see price hikes ahead as supply chain disruptions hamper their ability to match demand. we will hear exclusively from the ceo. that is at 7:30 a.m. london time. a policy jobs report, we talked about the goldilocks nature of a placing the s&p 500 to its seventh record in as many days. more on the markets, next. if you have any questions of your own for our guests, send them to us. that is the function to use on your bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we need to be cautious about the delta variant. >> we are still in crisis. india is having massive problems. south america is in turmoil. southeast asia including china has no vaccines. >> the fundamental drivers -- fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus, the very strong surprises about productive machinery being preserved during the crisis. >> the poi

production, opec was out there saying they think non-opec production is going to be 2.1 million barrels of additional oil in the market and they think there is any digsal 3.3 barrels of demand i think 700,000 barrels a day of that demand. i think the other supply side dynamice dynamics, the places where you have the highest oil demand and we're back below 2015 averages on where those stocks are. so i think this is a case of where the market is just positioned so different coming out of this. i care a lot less about demand, and also i'll just say that if you look at where overall oil companies as investments and gas companies and exploration companies are investments for investors, these are companies that have changed approach to the balance sheets when they raised a lot of debt during the last couple of months, couple of years and they're doing it to spruce up the balance sheets, not to drill at all costs. and i think that is what is very different and very under-appreciated by folks that are looking at energy trade. i think the companies are much more investable than they've ever been

area but that has been -- opec+ nations.ut that has been extremely sensationalized. the attempt to involve an internal dispute is not the matter at all. despite lots of efforts to try to cover it up. so that is actually something that has been going on for a few weeks. but if you think the futile idea that unless an agreement can be salvaged, the opec+ allies won't increase production and therefore there will be a degree of supply restrictions, the net is not really the thing. that's all it is, green wash. all of this is hugely relevant. a few weeks ago, goldman sachs analysts said we would soon see $80 a barrel, and that is actually happening already. we are up to $76 a barrel this morning for crude oil. guy: certainly the price is coming down fairly sharply. can i ask you a mechanical question in terms of the rate of fx and what is happening with the oil market? is it oil up, dollar down? is that how it works? andrew: it has done that in the past, but not of the moment. it has been around the $1.40, quite strong against th

coming up, opec and the key decision on output. we discussed. to a deal being made at at&t near purchase of -- goldman near purchase of parexal for nearly $9 billion including debt. that is according to dow jones. they manufacture ingredients used in vaccines. we are seeing a reshuffle in the portfolio, hearing that at&t and goldman are nearing a deal to buy parexel for nearly $9 billion including debt according to dow jones. we will continue to watch that for details. let's look at how we are tracking in markets. sophie: we are seeing marginal gains for asian stocks in value heavy topics led by autotune are rising on auto sales update. when it comes to japanese stocks, facing upside, given a reopening could be underway over the summer. in korea, the kospi heading .25%, energy and consumer discretion shares leading gains across the region early in the asian session. there is a focus on oil this morning brent and wti trading in the $75 range, pressure but still holding gains. pulling up a chart on the terminal, i hedge further narrows the spread