my name is daniel oppenheim and i wear three hats today. one is a citizen of san francisco for over 35 years. second is the owner of a tour company called the urban safari. but most importantly as the spokesperson for the san francisco tour operators association. president chu and chairman, i appreciate the opportunity. thank you very much for putting this forum together. we, too, feel that there is a more important dialogue to have at a citywide level. we can address noise in this neighborhood and tour routes in this neighborhood and parking in this neighborhood. but it's our suggestion, as the tour operators association, in conjunction with san francisco travel, to host what i would call a citywide summit, perhaps hosted by san francisco travel, and we would like to invite the stakeholders, that is to say the m.t.a., the san francisco police department, the department of public health, the neighborhood associations, citizens, the tour operators themselves, as well as san francisco travel, the mayor's office of economic development, employ

scott lewis of oppenheimer louis, elisabeth of oppenheim louis, and ron, our landscape architect. we are pleased to answer any questions that you may have about the project. thank you so much. >> i just want to ask one question. in some of the botanical garden society information, it gave some numbers of how much money has to be raised. there was a certain amount that was stated in the newsletter. there was a previous figure of $30 million that was thrown out from a much earlier statement. i know before you were director. if you could just clarify how much has been raised and spent and how much more has to be raised. >> yes, i will. the nursery is a $14.2 million project. we now have raised almost $7 million. we have another $7.2 million to raise. i think it is a $30 million figure must go back to the capital campaign that was launched many years ago, 2002, 2003. that was more like the total number for a whole range of improvements, which included $3 million for the pathways within the garden, $4 million for improvements to the county fair building, money for annual operations, an

carter worth of oppenheimer. the other thing to adjust for is stocks.f you take away the stocks in 2011 that would include the city reverse, the volume this year is about 10% higher because of the volume they have been in the market. that's another thing that is interesting. the options volume overall this year has been lower. >> off a little bit. let's not try to overanalyze. last year was a record year in the options world and we traded 18.1 million a day. we are down so far this year. we have seen a much less volatile market in the first three months. they did a great job of articulating and trading between 15 and 17 for sometime now. it's understandable why these volumes that were lower traded at 22 million to carter's point. volume on a down day. >> the note was first pointed out by our producer. >> it's must read. >> i knew you knew that. you have all their eight tracks. >> you are on a roll. coming up next, what investment should you consider to diversify? the best pick could be hanging on a wall. where the corporate activists are finding value t

stephanie oppenheim from toyportfolio.com is here with the top picks that will keep your kids busy for >> a lot of our toy testers. >> good morning. >> so we want to start with the little ones. this is a little activity center. >> little tikes garden center. this age it's very hard to find toys that are designed for their size and age appropriate. the balls are big. there are places for them to climb into. this can open up for more room to play but it's sturdy in this formation. even the big kids, everyone wanted to climb into the space. it has a mailbox, it's got this great door bell here, as well to play with. the telephone. lots of things to do. hi, jack. >> hi, jack. >> oh, yeah, jack, let's try. what's this? >> these are talking cubes. they really do work. >> jack what are you doing right now? are you on tv? >> yes. >> okay. me, too. gotta go. bye. >> all right. now also when you have toddlers who are on the go, you really want to give them things that they love pushing things. this is a new push toy from manhattan toy. but it's very old-fashioned. >> it's sold school. >> very old

let's start talking numberes with chief market technician al oppenheimer. we know what the papers are saying, what are the charts saying about wal-mart? >> weakness to take advantage of or stay away from? >> sure. >> well look at the chart and try to define that together. what is important here is the gaps. today's gap is news related pap big drop, not good. look at the gap, just a month or two ago. in fact, monday, february 21st. heavy volume, 30 million shares. stocks that show drops and gaps like that, news related, whether it is news that you think is right or not right, is typically an good thing. so this is weakness we would not take advantage of, we would stay away from. >> you say if the chart looks unattractive, did it look that unattractive before the news broke? >> no. well, there are two things. again, that's the point here. drop in gapping, it is opposite, stocks that surng on good earnings or good news, approval or product announcement, stocks that have bearish price line correlation twice in two months like this, never good. here is the long-

carter and our friend from oppenheimer sent interesting statistics because we paired them together because there is a high correlation between them. the daily correlation between apple and priceline was 62% and the correlation is higher than apple or priceline to the nearest competitors. that's why we are taking a look at apple and priceline. >> into the earnings of apple a week ago, the straddles were shrinking. the more they went down, the less you were paying for protection or the less you were paying for the upside. that almost never happens. priceline last friday, the money travels to $69. today it was $72 all day. i suspect it will go higher into the may 8th earnings. let's keep an eye on that. these are going opposite directions and maybe that told us something that priceline won't do as well if they turn around and do a 180 on what apple did. >> what are is the next stop for apple? is that somewhere around that. >> we have done a nice job. we said if you are look for the opportunity to buy, here it is. spike up. that day we said here's your chance to get out and we are right smack

and on the tax side, trending upward, oppenheimer is behind the group and it may not be with family taxesweek. despite the soft economy in commodity prices. >> it's one that is highly stable and off the high degree of revenue and one with depending on your view of what is favorable. >> the debt services industry includes what companies are we talking about? >> we are generalists and we focus on the largest casket. >> even though we're at the end of the season? >> we have ratings on h and r black and turbotax and the biggest players in the industry and advertising and tax season and slow in march and we think there can be a strong finish. a little bit of uncertain at the end of it is that they are into an h and r black are huge stocks for that front. >> how would you characterize the tax business right now? >> it's trending down in march. we're not overly concerned because march is a quiet period. the tax season in the first week of april is ticked up. it's been half a million returns with the irs year over year in the first week of april. a lot is weighing on this last week of the season

talking with carter worth, chief tech on oppenheimer and on the other side, jnp securities, gentlemenp good to see you both. carter? >> we like it here. it has all of the hall marks. important in charting is how well defined trend is broken to the upside. that's one way it analyze or interpret the trading action. there is a break in trend. another of course, is to look at how a stock's moving average or smoothing mechanism. that is also important. i have brought a long-term chart, goldman, since its ipo, that's an interesting thing here. >> in 1999. >> look at the wedge it's building. so you have euphoria. despair, less euphoric, less depondant, then settling into fair pricing. >> when does it hit the peak? >> i think up and out. >> so you would go higher here. david, as i said, we heard from wells, j.p. morgan, citi, what are expectationes from goldman sachs? >> you know expectations have risen the last few weeks. but i think looking at friday and today, fixed income trading is very strong. goldman is good for that. it is a big business pound for pound. i think they will beat on that

however, our next guest being carter worth at oppenheimer, he believes that's not going to happen thisrter is here and talking numbers to make the case for the second quarter. you think we're going to have a bit of a correction, right? >> in fact, what could make it a good quarter is just that. when you think what it's derived from, correct. when an angle gets incorrect or too steep -- >> now you can play a game of semantics. >> let's have fun with the charts. this is the bull. we've all enjoyed the three-year bull, 2009, 2012. every red hash mark is 4% or greater. some are quite shallow, 4% or 5%. some are quite heavy like last sumner 2010, 20%. but what you see is after corrections you get these two to three-month advances. we now are at the longest point since the bull market began without a correction. >> and you're defining correction here as about 4%. >> it will be a minimum, up to 10, 12. >> we've been throwing correction around meaning 20% or worse. >> that's ugly. thing what you want in order to have it be a good quarter going forward and a sustainable rally for the year is ju

he is from oppenheimer to talk numberes with us.monday carter predicted a correction so you will want it hear what he has to say. carter, welcome to the show. >> thank you. >> we were just talking about comments that marc faber was making. he said the market traded pretty technically awful lately. what do the charts tell you about whether this is start of something bigger? >> sure. there is nothing wrong with corrections. it keeps the whole thing healthy. it implies something is incorrect about the angle and it resets. the angle is a bit much, but it is the complacency. this trend in effect for about 14 weeks, today we have broken that trend. that's an important development which does forshadow, let's say, more things to the down side. and i guess the thing to do is figure out how far down of course. so what i brought is other lines and if you look at same chart, drawn a different way, support starts basically at may peak of last year, at 1370 and goes down to about 1340. it is a mattress top and you sink in to support. that's all q

let's bring in a senior analyst with oppenheimer. welcome to the show. i guess this isn't something you see every day where every single one of the underwriters doesn't say go out and buy the stock. >> if stock is up 72% since they completed ipo at $15. it's also the most expensive stock on an enterprise with internet factor. it's a terrific company. numerous leverage they can use to grow whether it is different penetration rate but at the end of the day the company has not given public guidance yet. i think people that say we have made a ton of money here. topped at 72% for anyone who wants to deal and it's kind of take a wait and see approach at this point. >> are you sold on yelp's business model? i use it and i like it. i can't say i look at any ads at all or if there were ads if i would pay attention whatsoever to them so what is the real business model and prospects for it going forward? >> the reason you may not see a ton of ad is because right now only 4% of the advertisers who are listed on those paid to advertise. the average spending for adver

we will start talking numbers now with carter worthy as cheer market technician with oppenheimer.s it going? it's not like microsoft hadn't been doing anything before this. this stock has been back in favor and is doing quite well. >> for a large capital name, it's moved quite a bit. the first chart depicts that. >> it's going to come up, i promise. >> yeah. so this move -- >> that's what i'm talking about. >> you're talking about adding, 60, $65 billion. there are only a few companies worth that. tax that on in a matter of a ma and a half. it is a bit steep. it has that do more of this. consolidating. in order to rest or pause. the proceeding steep advance. and this is happening, not at a a random spot. look at the five-year chart. that consolidation is taking place quite precisely at well defined past tops. this is the range, the stock has been in for almost three, four years. >> hopes are high for what the stock can do from here. hopes are high because of windows 8 mobile. as you said, old style tech, if you will, has definitely come back into favor. this isn't just the only na

you a comment from apple from the call yesterday in which the company says, this is from peter oppenheimer. we continue to see tremendous momentum in greater china where iphone sales were five times the level of the year-ago quarter. the bottom line is they don't see china moderating at all. if anything, the expectations are it would continue to pick up. why should we believe that you think it would cool? >> well, that's not what i heard on the call. what he said on the call was the supply/demand imbalance was no longer occurring in china and they're looking for a sequential decline. so if you look at what happened in china, two of the smaller operators that are predominantly post paid operators, 50% of one guy's business, 75% of the other ones that launched the iphone in january then march that delivered a lot of pent-up demand and should have been expected by investors. when you go forward after you get the post paid customers, what happens in the next quarter? a ton of phones sold at at&t and verizon and sprint. what happened to the quarter after that, they went down sequentially, 26% a

guest: the study was done by bruce oppenheimer at vanderbilt university. he wrote the piece in part because he noticed this discrepancy that i mentioned earlier that you have all these young members of the house that you would think would be running for state office. he wanted to figure out why that was the case and this is what they found. if you ask most people why they are not many african-americans in the senate, their thoughts turn to racism. they think black politicians cannot attract white votes. it is not that simple. it is not so much racism that is the problem as it is a bunch of qualities that are somewhat the result of past racial barriers. some are the result of measures to alleviate those like the voting rights act which creates a majority/minority district. all those things together get -- make it very difficult for politicians to climb up the ladder in a way most people expect. host: can you give our viewers an idea of what type of district's african americans are representing in the house and how liberal they are? the other members represe

it was, in fact, not oppenheimer that had that call, but

. >> brian neagle, senior equity research analyst with oppenheimer and company joins us here.> thanks for having me. >> got to try new things. what do you think that means? >> well, i think it's very true for retailers. i look across my coverage universe and i don't cover sears, but i cover a number of other retailers. through the economic downturn, it was so powerful, these companies really rethought their business models. a lot of them slowed or stopped unit growth. traditional retailers are looking towards internet as an additional sales driver. i think what mr. lampert says is absolutely correct. we're starting to see this divide between the haves and the have nots. and mr. lampert mentioned best buy. i do cover best buy. best buy seems to be a company that has struggled and is going to continue to struggle because it's seeing a lot of competition from the internet. >> what answers are there beyond driving more sales online, closing stores, maybe limiting the number of skus, i'm wondering, is there a there there to what he's saying? >> as far as other retailers go? >> yeah

procter & gamble downgraded to a market perform from outperform over at oppenheimer.hat is down by 1% right now. and anheuser-busch, the company is cautious on the second quarter. seeing a decline of .8%. and ppg industries upgraded from neutral. that's about flat on the session. >>> when we come back, we're going to prep you for all the data set to move the markets this week, jobs numbers, manufacturing data, plus the head of u.s. equity at bank of america/merrill lynch will tell us why earnings expectations for this year might be too optimism. a lot more "squawk on the street" coming up after the break. people with a machine. what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. >>> as we get into the second hour of "squawk on the street" this monday morning, other corporate news we're watching, humana missing the street. the health insurer reporting a 21% decline in first-quarter profits to $1.49 a share. four cents below