the answer for oppenheimer was yes. of his friends and famy and students were either communists or close to communists or adjacent. he himself was pretty close to communism in the you have to put 1930's. this in the context of the great depression, of what it meant to be, say, pro-civil rights in the 1930s, that the communists were the ones who were often leading those charges. so a lot of what they were advocating for is not necessarily violent revolution or stalinism or anything like that, but a lot of things that we would associate with progressive causes. but by the 1950s, the political winds had really shifted. and it was a pretty damning association to have your brother be a member of the communist party or your wife being a former member of the communist party and things like that. the accusations of his character were that basically during world war ii, he did things that were, in retrospect, pretty irresponsible, including lying to security agents, probably to protect his brother. things that don't look good in

. >> it doesn't make sense to go 17 times for oppenheimer and we see a multiple of 19 times and up from 17 230 is the earnings call there and they don't see things being as bad and let's stay on the here and now, all right? that all that looms ahead here and the cpi, they are likely to send us higher >> liz is right. it's all about cpi and it's all about the ability tomorrow and let's replace the word momentum which can bring us higher and let's insert the word sentiment and positioning. >> terrible. >> exactly that's the exact reasoning why if we're going to have a rally off of the cpi tomorrow it's going to be built upon what we washed away over the last week which was we washed away a little bit of bullish sentiment. we washed away a degree of bullish positioning and right now it's reflective. if you look at the vix which is 6% higher today. the vix right now at 24. what that's signalling is that there is, in fact, in the options market some call buying which is lifting the vix higher and the call buying is being put in place because there is this belief that potentially tomorrow you

oppenheimer analyst rating the stock from a buy to a hold, dropping it to that hold blaming twitter for elon's loss of focus saying the negative sentiment from twitter could linger for quite sometime. the shareholders are furious at least a whole bunch who have gotten very vocal. for example, gary black whose managing partner at the future fund which has tesla as its number one holding, also sees overhang, or kind of like the bad fish smell from elon's twitter tie-up. he tweeted today, "while elon is stepping down as twitter ceo is positive, he said he will but he's been remarkably quiet, folks on twitter, gary goes on to say twitter overhang can't fully lift until credible twitter ceo is appointed, finances improve so elon doesn't have to keep selling his tesla shares to fund it and it becomes clear there's minimal residual tesla brand damage from twitter ." and then you have barrons senior writer al root with a headline saying in a brand new article that hitting the tape that says while elon's twitter departure is something tesla investors should keep an eye on, there are a bunch of o

despite that oppenheimer names tesla a top pick saying the stock can get back to $400 a share.ll check in with that analyst in two minutes what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats so they don't bring you to a grinding halt. and everyone's going places, including you. let's create cybersecurity that keeps your business on track. ibm. let's create welcome. you've got sales! i do? i do! you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! when you've got the internet's most loved commerce platform. you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! what was that? that's elwood. go to shopify.com to start your free trial today. goodbye! >>> s a number of economic reports raising recession concerns and pressuring stocks this morning retail sales reversed last month's rise and fell 0.6% the drop in part due

what deadly force put into the hands of the us government robert oppenheimer, the scientific directorct, said we did the work behind the devil long before this famous statement immediately after the creation of the bomb. he said we made a bomb. let's make sure we don't blow up the world by learning about the theme of our film, the grandson of robert oppenheimer, charles, for the first time agreed to an interview for russian television. my grandfather believed that for the sake of success, scientists from all over the world should work together and be able to talk to each other. it was the military who believed that the main thing in nuclear development was the secrecy of people. such a pacifist position was not close to the states, only a nuclear balance could maintain an unsteady geopolitical balance, and in 1949 it was achieved. created in the soviet union the atomic bomb prevented a nuclear catastrophe, the americans realized that they were not the only ones who possessed such a terrible weapon and from now on they must act with caution. thanks to whom and at the cost of what effor

investment bank, oppenheimer and company, has downgraded teslas rating on the market. the company cited risks over twitter. the various problems include elon musk battling, banning a multiple journalists. they also say has management has severely damaged markets around tesla and are sparking a backlash from advertisers and consumers. in the last few minutes, elon musk treats that he would step down from twitter when he finds someone to take his place. >>> with christmas fast approaching, more bay area businesses are stepping up to help neighbors in need. at the redwood empire food bank, with more. >> let's get active in doing something for somebody in our community. that's what we do at your community station. we are here in santa rosa meeting heroes, people who see a need and are stepping forward to meet that need. >> i am on the board of directors here, but today, we are a company that contributes money , and food and i want to give lisa cannon this check . thank you for everything you do in our community. >> thank you so much. we couldn't do it without your support

i'm a couple calls on disney and comcast this morning oppenheimer, the strength of parks is very unusual given the uncertainty. >> it's an unusual decline there's a lot of places that are strong >> there are, and that's what makes this a particularly unusual time and a very difficult one to navigate. >> i think that history is not as helpful right now and i just find that for instance when i think about china, i heard people say, well, china is going to shut down because of covid, and then i hear other people say, well, covid, it's going to be immunized in three weeks because everybody is going to have had omicron. i'm saying that everything is so inconsistent >> everything is inconsistent and hard to follow by the way, you mentioned china. that is not an unimportant component here also. >> thank you >> if they are focused once again on economic growth, as the journal reported this morning, that will have an impact as well positive in some ways but also potentially they consume a lot of commodities it could have a negative effect. inflationary impact. >> brian sullivan, who is on the fiv

, that's screaming in oppenheimer, that's screaming in my ear, the screaming in my.tom. cheers me . i love you. can we go cheers me. i love you. can we go for a beer after? don't believe the nonsense about co2 . we don't the nonsense about co2. we don't kill society . i. i the nonsense about co2. we don't kill society. i. i met tom right coming up it's mark turner. then for stein . mark how you doing ? for stein. mark how you doing? buck up . for stein. mark how you doing? buck up. median nina conti. but neither of them are as talented as you are. i'm very excited because we've got a busy show tonight. we're going to be crunching the numbers on covid. is the consensus around the virus now beginning to crumble? we're going to speak to either cummins, something of a youtube star. he's an engineer who has actually looked at the data and argues that lockdowns masks and vaccines have failed to move the dial. also is britain in long term decline? we will a debate that with professor dr. david starkey live in the studio and oxford goes full communist . find oxford goes full

, that's screaming in oppenheimer, that's screaming in my ear, the screaming in my.tom. cheers me . i love you. can we go cheers me. i love you. can we go for a beer after? don't believe the nonsense about co2 . we don't the nonsense about co2. we don't kill society . i. i the nonsense about co2. we don't kill society. i. i met tom right coming up it's mark turner. then for stein . mark how you doing ? for stein. mark how you doing? buck up . for stein. mark how you doing? buck up. median nina conti. but neither of them are as talented as you are. i'm very excited because we've got a busy show tonight. we're going to be crunching the numbers on covid. is the consensus around the virus now beginning to crumble? we're going to speak to either cummins, something of a youtube star. he's an engineer who has actually looked at the data and argues that lockdowns masks and vaccines have failed to move the dial. also is britain in long term decline? we will a debate that with professor dr. david starkey live in the studio and oxford goes full communist . find oxford goes full

let's check in theretail outlook with brian nagle senior analyst at retail hard lines at oppenheimerdo we have any indication right now what the holiday and christmas shopping season will look like? i have no clue >> good morning, brian look, what is interesting here and i'm talking about this with my clients it is that time of year. so far, the data we see and we get it piecemeal suggests that the holiday season is off to a decent start we saw a number of reports from various sources saying over black friday or thanksgiving weekend and cyber monday sales tracked well in store and online we have companies with the reporting recently and most of them are talking up the beginning of the holiday selling seas season we get the retail report today to answer your question, the holiday season seemed to start decent >> you know, we talk about retail, brian, we're cnbc. we talk about walmart, target, home depot i get it those are the big names. they are owned by everybody. to me, that is boring. i'm a bit of a lunatic let's change it. we have a lot of viewers right now and a couple of them --

gaining popularity on the street as we head into a new year with morgan stanley evercore and now oppenheimeralling microsoft a top pick for 2023 here with his bull case for the stock, timothy welcome. it makes me nervous when everybody likes something. what's the bear case that you are protecting against here at microsoft if everybody likes it? >> great point i have been following it now almost seven years and it's always been the most loved stock in my universe it is nothing new here and the reason is they really have the dominant tech platform for enterprises and the cloud platform for enterprises they're really at the stage when they can upsell a lot of new products and services on adjacent markets both vertically with software and more infrastructure products at this point. obviously there are risks. this year they got hit from currency they got hit from russia the biggest longer term risk is probably china it is probably 10% of their profitability, between 5 to 15%. the macro economy is obviously a risk but i think they're in a better position than most in a weaker economy. >> is there

>> it is above 50%, but over at oppenheimer he has flagged, looking at more extremes. 20% for the broader s&p 500, rather than closer to the 70%, closer to that 70% threshold that is where stocks exhaust that. there is a lot of improvement, even when you see what is happening with the 10 year yield, that could potentially bode well for equities. that is something jonathan, who covers technicals, says that potentially bode well for the balls -- bulls with treasury yields. >> let's go over what we know with how rallies act and what happens after. we typically get the bear market rallies that trigger a boatload of short covering. than the shorts accelerate and drag the index back down. it keeps going in a circle, is there anything breaking the circle? >> i was looking at a client from bank of america yesterday, institutions were buying up shares last week and they work a riskier part of the market. technology, and shying away and selling more defensive network -- sectors health care. retail selling on the flow data, could be a contrarian indicator. bank of america was flagging over the next

that was raised from oppenheimer as a result of the aviation business. >> finally a splash getting out with three new companies. that is hard to see. you have bill combs's important book out on the collapse. now, edward morse. had a small shop years ago that did this off of political and economic work on oil over many decades and now holds shop with global head of commodities research at citigroup. we are thrilled he could join us today. what are the $100 over a barrel people getting wrong? >> they got wrong supply and demand, but more on the demand side. this was supposed to be a year depending on what projection that you are looking at that there would be 5% or 6% demand growth post-pandemic. it just fizzled out. largely because of something nobody expected which was the pace of the slowdowns and recessions merging in the artist economies in the world. china, the u.s. and europe. the demand-side really is the big killer on this. we are looking at probably 1.7% demand growth this year compared to projections of 4% or higher. >> what is interesting to me is the prices have come down an

joining us is peter oppenheimer. good to see you. do you buy energy stocks for next year?: we do. we been positive about them. it's a function of two things. one is a general shift towards more value oriented sectors and in deed markets. as nominal gdp has strengthened and real rates have risen. but there is a secular story that looks to us to be very positive for the commodities space in general. given a lack of increased supply over the last decade. so that whenever you get a pickup in demand, you are likely to be hitting relatively richer supply and prices will go higher. guy: how much of what has worked this year is going to work in 23? peter: i think quite a bit. you have to recognize i think the context. when we look at the decade or more after financial crisis we just had a very long-term secular trend of growth stocks working out -- working and outperforming. it was a decade in which the most expensive sectors and markets continued to get more expensive and out perform and the cheaper ones got cheaper and underperformed. there was largely a function of two things.

today i caught up with peter oppenheimer, who spoke about the value versus growth trade in the monthshead. >> i don't think it's going to outperform in the next decade. in many ways it is probably the law that -- the wrong way to be thinking about this as a binary split between growth and value. what i think it's going to become more of a hybrid. i do think this is going to continue to outperform as real rates rise and you get structural tailwinds rather than headwinds. i also think that characteristics are shifting and investors are fine to put more value on sustainable margins and earnings, cash flows, then purely on revenue growth. alix: let's get another take with the head of u.s. small mid-cap strategy at bank of america securities. how would you understand deep value and is that a good bet right now? >> thanks for having me. we do think value looks well-positioned versus growth for the year ahead. that is true both within the broader market as well as within small and mid-caps. i think we are in a backdrop where near term we still expect interest rates to be higher fundamentally

. >>> and stephanie oppenheim is here playing santa's helper with her list of the hot holiday toys. >us to talk about her career and showing off her many talents in the new movie "matilda the musical. excited about that >> the day in new york is incredible not too cold amazing. dylan, tell us more. >> yes savannah, could we talk about your bedazzled jacket? >> that is happening >> thank you very much >> i think i put a bedazzler in one of the bags here. >> i love a bedazzler. i know. >> so sweet. >> all right let's take a look at what we can expect across the country today. it is warm around new york city and also down into new jersey, pennsylvania, virginia but it comes with rain that rain moves in into this afternoon and into this evening. heavy at times warm along the gulf coast. temperatures today close to 80 degrees. and then you could see there is a lot draped across the country here there is a lot of systems that will move through. a second one is going to bring more heavy rain to oklahoma and arkansas, tennessee tomorrow we could see some flooding rains up to three to four inc

his name is robert oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb. was yanked in 1954 because of his involvement, such as it was, with the communist party with the 30s . today, the biden administration said that decision in 1954 was flawed. he taught physics before heading up the manhattan project at los alamos which created to the creation of the atom bomb. >>> a popular southern california mountain lion known as p22 had to be euthanized. he was captured monday after he attacked several dogs and a woman earlier this month. after that, apparently, he was hit by a car. veterinarians said he had head trauma and internal injuries. that is when they said it had to be euthanized. the cat became famous after being spotted at the hollywood sign and the griffith park observatory. he was an icon and his incredible journey inspired a new era of urban conservation including the world's largest wildlife crossing in california. >>> the santa cruz mountains are not looking like themselves lately and that's a good thing. mary lee shows us the result of more than a

check it out, two firms are ahead of you for 2023, deutsche bank and oppenheimer. the real intriguing thing, last year you had one of the highest numbers, 5352. we're looking at numbers, the highest number this year are lower than even the highest numbers last year. the reason i bring this up is obviously everyone was too optimistic in 2022 coming into the year. could we all be too pessimistic coming into 2023? >> especially, charles, given i'm truly at heart a contrarian, much more fundamental than a majority of my peers and competitors. if we take a look at kind of bottoms-up numbers, so many people just take a look at the market numbers. i look at the 500 companies in the s&p 500 and 1000 companies in the s&p 400 and 600. we're not seeing the type of 20% or 25% drawdown in earnings from a bottoms-up level that everybody else is seeing. i just think it is lazy math and being too, way too fear-mongering to say we'll get a 20% pullback in earnings. charles: right. >> i think that will really be the catalyst to get things going and i think what we've done, we said t

only once went down, that was in 2002 by joining me head of technical analysis at oppenheimer.ar the hurdle where do you think the s&p could be a year from now? >> yeah. to start with the charts that you first put on the screen comparing now to 2007, and the pest in 2001 as well the point internal conditions are much stronger now than they were then. so the rally above the 200-day average, we're talking about it, it is important, it is an incation of invery mean tall trend improvement but confirming the market bottom conditions already been at play. we had washed out conditions in the summer, a successful test of the low in june and now we're seeing a reversal in trend. if that was consistent with the end of a bear cycle i'm thinking now in terms of a new bull cycle. if you look back in history, start of a new bull cycle, 40% rise over a 12 month period, consistent, conservative, reasonable. as i think about the next 12 months i'm thinking a term of the test of pryer highs for the s&p 500 as we think of back end of 2023. charles: as you were talking i almost went back to grab m

. >> let's take a closer look at the ad landscape this morning with oppenheimer managing director jason helstein. great to have you back this morning. i wonder how you're processing a lot of the commentary, not just from bob but a lot of the media companies the last couple of weeks and whether or not ads are truly a first in, last out when it comes to cyclical downturns. >> sure of the on the first in, last out question you really have to divide the universe. you have brand advertising and that's first in, last out and performance advertising which is typically last in. so kind of probably the best way to describe the two, google, you know, they are almost all performance except for youtube and even part of youtube is performance. meta has largely been mostly performance. whereas companies we cover like roku and some of the brand companies like viacom, that's all brand. that's how we would divide it up >> right what did you make of this eu news yesterday regarding meta and their ability to target? the stock was down there was several headlines swirling around. how important was that one

here to explain is jarrett holtz with oppenheimer jared, welcome, bmy, amgen, these are not sexy names, but putting them altogether, you're seeing pretty strong performance, aren't we >> i think the premise is that health care is somewhat offensive, somewhat defensive. it gives investors a little bit of everything. valuations across the space are somewhat reasonable. i think it all leads to this sector continuing to perform at least relatively well versus the market and yes, tech has been in many cases obliterated with some of the biggest household names down dramatically on the year and health care has performed very well against it. tough to say when tech is going to come back, but i think this continues for a bit. >> in some ways, health care names are becoming more household, given the way cold and flu season is performing for bmy, that's your beat, up 19% year-to-date amgen up 18% neurocin biosciences, up and gilead, up 20% that's incredible outperformance >> yeah, that was just a cross-section that gave me a good acronym it could be anything in large cap health care that kind of

we've got one on general electric oppenheimer upgrading it le estee lauder is upgraded and j.g upgraded let's bring in todd gord dong. great to see you again, todd >> hey, kelly. >> what do you think about this stock? >> yeah, hey, welcome back this one -- for me, this is not my kind of play. this is a no touch for me until we get more clarity on the spinoff. the stock has performed really well on a relative basis on the broader market the 200 day is about 77 so they broke into three parts, aviation, health care, power generation power has been under pressure from the renewable side. decreased demand in the u.s. aviation on the other hand has done well. we have a travel recovery, resurgence in orders from boeing and airbus it's done well in the commercial military space so there's pretty bullish price targets on it. the for me this is a move that's come up on the turn around story. not my cup of tea if you know what i mean. >> okay. now what about estee lauder. beauty is supposed to be recession proof and luxury what do you think? >> yeah, that tom foord was interesting. it's

. >> i think oppenheimer called 12% up for the s&p by the end of 2023.t's pretty significant. >> i think from a couple weeks ago when the market was down. >> actually this morning they called 12% higher, because the fed might not have to be as aggressive. >> well they are a voice in the wilderness because if you look at the average it's not promising for next year, stuart. stuart: you've rained on the parade. successfully destroyed the excitement i was trying to build but seriously if that's your perspective that's your perspective and i welcome it. thank you very much. now the other blockbuster here we go. we'll need you for this. sam bankman-fried, arrested last night in the bahamas. take me through the charges. >> so you have two separate filings here. we might even get a cftc filing later on today on charges against sam bankman-fried and ftx so we had the sec this morning filing charges along with the southern district of new york, the attorney general, sec chair gary gensler accusing bankman-fried of orchestrating a year-long fraud and moving ftx cu

forecast, stock enjoying the best reaction to earnings in about 20 years joining us this morning, oppenheimer'sel has a buy rating inventory is the lead the morning. does it deserve to be? >> this was an absolutely fantastic report from nike what it shows is, and this is why the stock is bouncing so significantly today, despite the macro concerns, despite the challenges out there, nike is very much in control still very strong, very solid consumer demand for nike's products across its brands, across geographies nike is successfully working down these excess inventories with little if any disruption to the core business. very solid report from the company last night. >> china up six. what were you looking for? >> down basically. the return to positive growth in china is a positive surprise and a good one in comments management on the conference call regarding china suggests this is just the beginning, the brand remains very strong in china we expect as these disruptions abate, hopefully soon, you'll see stronger sales growth from nike in china. >> what about digital? i think they grew 34%. is th

. >> let's bring in collin rush, from oppenheimer, he downgraded tesla after naming it a top pick for going on. i assume if he steps aside as ceo you would be encouraged for that as well. >> it's about rebuilding trust for us what happened last week, the sale was one element and i don't think we were surprised to see him sell a few more shares to fund this enndeavor but the engagement with journalists and banning folks without consistent methodology of who's getting banned and why was a problem for us for someone working towards free speech from his own words but really doing damage from his brand, not his personal brand but also tesla which is linked to him so for us, seeing that was a bridge too far as we go forward, obviously he has work to do to rebuild that trust for us, and rebuild the trust in the brand and the mission that tesla's been on in terms of climate mitigation and evolving better solutions for people through technology. we need to see a lot more work from him and that company to get back on board here >> right but i want to be clear you're still positive on the fundam

. >>> here with more on the markets as we kick off the final trading day of the year, oppenheimer's chiefstrategist john, thanks for being on with us today what a year it's been. we've been talking about it, the fact that wall street really -- so many on wall street got it so wrong this year. you started the year, i guess, back in december of last year with a price target year-end on the s&p of 5330. that's a 1500-point differential from where we are right now. i want to get your thoughts on how that estimate got it so wrong versus where we're poised to close today >> very simply, morgan, thanks for having me on the show, is in december of 2021 we put that target in, the s&p 500 was ticking higher the fed had fairly well announced it would be accelerating its tapering program in the first quarter with likelihood of raising rates. but what couldn't be seen was the aggression -- or, rather, the aggression of russia into ukraine, which disrupted oil prices, which is central oil prices are core to inflation. and then in addition to that, of course, zero tolerance to covid by president xi in c

then analyze it again and then send it to snowflake for more analysis >> jim's referring to this oppenheimer data dog. they go to outperform, target $105 you don't like the call? >> i don't like the group. the group is just -- it's so tired out. we're -- unless you're making the big pivot, unless you're doing the pivot, mongo did do the pivot, but unless you're doing the pivot which says, you know what? and this was started by -- this really was started by palo alto. he said, you know what we're going to give people growth, but we're also going to make money and if you were not in that camp mongodb is, then i can't like you. because you're just going to fall apart on me and by the way, fintech, i mean, david, fintech, kiss of death, fintech. >> fintech >> fintech >> yes buy now, pay later also. >> yeah. buy now, pay later there's an idea. remember jamie dimon, who i love, rep jamimember jamie dimon buy now, pay later, he said they've had that since jpmorgan. >> upstart klarna you're going to love it >> well, a stripe. you know how about square people like square now, why >> why >> why why li

joining us, collin rush oppenheimer senior research analyst.now you joined us earlier in the month when you downgraded to perform on this name your thoughts given the activity, given the fact that, to amy's point, you have seen more headlines that speak more fundamentally to the business in recent days as well. your thoughts on tesla at these levels currently >> a couple of really interesting things as we wrap up the year and get into 2023 first, this is going to be a year when the pretenders and real contenders get washed out in the ev space. i think one of the things that we've been excited about wit tesla is the technology leadership as we look at that and look at how many folks are going to buy evs and what that looks like, we see tesla in a strong position, and that's been a consistent view for us. the concern here is as you have more options on the market and you have incremental competition for tesla and you have elon out in and around twitter and changing the consumer perception brand, that some of those folks decided to make a differen

morning lows s&p green once again dow is on pace for the worst week since september joining us oppenheimernager john, and darrell. happy friday darrell, let me begin with you sounds like you're not in the mood to buy aggregate. fed, you argue, remains a bit hawkish, valuations have not become cheap, in your view. >> i think that's right, carl. they're obviously cheaper, but it's interesting if you look at things like equity risk premiums we're still lower today on equity risk premiums than the june lows or october lows. we still think as the fed finishes this tightening cycle, 50 next week, i think they'll do 50 in february and 25 in march, that you probably have a little better buying opportunities than first quarter of the year. we're getting closer bear markets are a function of price and time we dropped into this bear in mid-june typical june lasts 190 days. first quarter would be very consistent with what history gives us >> interesting, john, how about you, i wonder what you make of the early december weakness. do you think this is the historical first half as a lot of tax laws settl

him in the fiftieth arrested harry gold, he worked as a liaison in espionage for the ussr, and oppenheimercted. he was even called on the carpet to the commission of inquiry into anti-american activities. he learned to be controlled not only by the united states and not too patriotic speech, which he delivered after successful tests at the alamogordu test site. i remembered a phrase from bhagava. i am death, destroyer of worlds, i suppose. many of us then felt something like the military saw. it's so cool. we have a great bomb. we can just take over the whole world and, of course, my go could not agree with this from the secret developments of the hero. whose face until recently flaunted on the cover of the time, he turned into an outcast, although no evidence from the fbi has ever found such absurdity. the fierce search for spies dragged on in america for years, it was extremely difficult for the special services to admit their own insolvency that completely secret materials were leaking right under their noses and evil alas, and sometimes the fbr members themselves participated in this,

i felt bad pinpointing the biggest bulls on wall street and the story on bloomberg, -- over at oppenheimer how they were big goals. ---bulls. i got it so wrong. matt: i would not be sitting here. there were defenses and one person said there were lacks one events --black swan events like the war in ukraine. almost everyone got it wrong in the beginning of 2022 expecting the fed to raise rates slowly, but maybe that is because of the measured -- measures are jerome powell was getting. lisa: i wonder what the consensus is because there was a sense of optimism in 2022 and it was wrong and that the senses is or a earnings recession in the first half and something that resembles a pause and maybe not a pivot. could that be wrong? kailey: especially when you have people saying the say -- same thing, the fact that stocks will climb -- and now we will end the year around the 4000 level and if that is consensus, does that mean the some will have to change? lisa: does the index matter or is it the components? coming up next is kevin nicholson at riverfront investment group. >> i am lisa matteo. russ

i want to see oppenheimer. >> yeah. >> i saw - >> preview. >> who is the -- the famous director, christopher >> i know all about films. i got -- someone in my family crazy about films. dominic chu joins us about the premarket movers and dom is crazy in his own way. >> a wild and crazy guy in the best of ways, i think, hopefully for folks throughout joe, becky, we have some earnings movers in the mix here. one that's notable from this morning is coming out from general mills, a secereal maker down 3% in trading right now so far just around 25,000 shares of premarket volume. this is all happening even though it reported better than expected profits and revenues and raised its full-year forecast general mills was helped by higher prices that it charged which helped offset rising input costs. nonetheless, those shares, by the way, out performers of 25% this year, giving back some of those gains on a more positive earnings report. next up, shares of steelcase, up roughly 3% right now very thin premarket trading volumes. this is a maker of office furniture, storage systems like file cabinets, offi

i will pick on the wonderful john stolfus at oppenheimer who has been bullish and has stayed that wayg pretty good after what we've seen then you've got these people who can be correct here but it is an odd and late swing to say the least. jonathan: will this be a result of central bank over timing? the issue that people have is the view of many other people as they been raffling with story for the last nine months. tom: i have great respect for these strategists and it's always brutal. jonathan: it's tremendously difficult. tom: what i like is when they are clear. jonathan: look at the forecast to start the we are just to start the year. tom: do we have any news on bankman-fried in the last 10 minutes? jonathan: i don't think so. we will have to wait, the testimony we thought we would get earlier or later this morning, he said i would like to start is that i have had enough. tom: that's appropriate for radio. we will continue to follow this story. we have inflation in two hours and part of inflation has been your gallon of gas. is oil dis-inflating or is it becoming a true deflationa

kailey: that was john at oppenheimer asset management. "bloomberg surveillance," we are filling in for john, lisa, tom. is this an in between holiday? matt: yesterday was boxing and we are coming up on new year's eve. today is just a bank holiday in the u.k., right? they just give that. christmas was on a sunday and they expect two days off for christmas and boxing day. they extend it. it's the right thing to do, it seems civilized. kailey: i would like that very much but with the volume low like this, by and large the market action has been positive to this point in the future session, though we have seen gains getting smaller as time has gone on. nasdaq 100 futures are up 1/10 of 1% with bigger gains for the s&p 500, up to three point 886, which as we have discussed multiple times is far below where we initially thought we would end the year and still below where strategists had revised to lower their expectations. matt: yeah we need to see a rally of 4% to 5% in the next few days before we can get back to or achieve strategists median