pat tiberi winning with 66.6% of the vote., you're off to a good start, erin. don't crack the beer yet. just hang in there. >> and as you point out, obviously, that county overwhelmingly democratic. but he can't win it without it. so as you say the way to get out of the gate. if democrats do manage to win, then that puts the seats they need to take control of the house to 22 instead of 23. they could argue this is the beginning of our blue wave. got to start somewhere. could that really happen? if so how? >> sure, it could happen. emphasis on could happen. even if democrats are competitive in this district, even if they lose by a point or two, they will spin this and will be right to spin it, to be optimistic. look at the margin last time. the president carried this district by 11 points. mitt romney carried the district by 10 points. the republican incumbent won it in a walkaway last time. so if the democrats are even close here's one way to look at it. look at the demographics of ohio 12. it's 88% white. if democrats are com

pat tiberi used to win by 25, 30 points facing token opposition here. it shows just how fired up democrats were here and how nervous republicans were that they had to spend maybe $5 million or so to keep this seat competitive, had to bring everybody out of the woodwork to hold on to this thing for troy balderson, which is looks like they may do when and if all these votes get counted. >> garrett haake for us outside columbus ohio. thank you. we want to get to some more breaking news this hour. congressman chris collins, the first member of congress to back donald trump for president has been arrested. he's expected to appear in federal court in new york today. law enforcement officials say the new york republican surrendered to the fbi this morning on insider trading charges. a significant moment for collins with us now for the latest is daniel goldman, former u.s. attorney for the southern district of new york. we also have back in washington national political reporter for bloomberg politics and anna palmer senior washington correspondent for politico

the winner will replace republican representative pat tiberi who resigned to work for a business group. >> both sides watching this race closely as a barometer for the midterms. the district hasn't elected a democrat since the 1980, but balderson got president trump came to town to campaign. nbc's garrett haake has a closer look atg nights in tias last night. we knew this race would be close. we knew it would go late. we did not know it would end up too close to00 votes separating republican candidate troy balderson and democratic candidate danny o'connor here in ohio's 12th district. this has been a reliably republican district for more than 30 years. it's elected john kasich, who is now the governor of ohio. republicans just don't lose here. and in fact, they rarely have close races. but in the age of donald trump, a lot of this common knowledge is being turned on its head, and a democrat gave a great race here. but what we're going to find out now is how much of this is transferrable to november. does this race end in a recount, which it's possible once all these ballots are counted

tuesday nights special election was triggered by the retirement of republican congressman pat tiberi. >>> congressman from new york who was indicted yesterday says he will run for reelection in november despite being charged with insider trading. >> the charges that have been levied against me are meritless. i will mount a vigorous defense in court to clear my name. >> republican chris collins was indicted for alleged crimes linked to an australian biotech company. collins was a major shareholder in that company was on the board of di to sell th. they sold their sh just before the 92%. >>> tesla is . the wall street journal reporting the sec is looking into whether elon musk really had lined up to take tesla private. if he does not he could face civil and possibly criminal penalties. that one tweet sent tesla stock soaring and halted trading of tesla shares for about 90 minutes on tuesday. yesterday stocks closed mostly lower on worries about tariffs between the u.s. and china and lower-than-expected earnings from disney and snap . the dow fell 45 points in the nasdaq was up four and

the seat was held by pat tiberi, who resigned in january.

i'll be filling, i wouldn't have got through a lot without him through this process, congressman pat tiberi. i'd also like to take this opportunity and time to also thank chairman steve stivers, a great asset to me and has been helping me all through this process. chairman, thank you. there's many others. i could just keep going on and on. but tonight i'm going to promise to you that i'm going to work relentlessly, relentlessly for this 12th congressional district. america is on the right path, and we're going to keep it going that way. it's time to get to work. over the next three months, i'm going to do everything i can to keep america great again. so that when we welcome -- when we come back here in november, get ready, we've got to come back here in november, i have earned your vote for a second time. danny o'connor ran a hard race, and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. thank you all so much for all your support. god bless you, and god bless america. >> that is the republican candidate for the congressional race in ohio, ohio's 12th congressional district there.

the seat was held by pat tiberi, who resigned in january. ♪ i will stand my ground and i

district represented by republicans for 35 years including john kasich and the most recent congressman pat tiberieven a one-point victory is who close to call as a final result, i'm not sure how to spin that as a. >> result for republicans when it comes to all 435 seats up for election in november. >> steve, your sense of the role president trump is going to play? a piece in axios this week how the president and his team is working with the republican national committee, with other republican groups to scene where the president might go, where his daughter and senior adviser might go in place of him. how does this change the campaigning strategy for this president for republicans more generally? >> i think there's a number of districts that are up for grabs this cycle. some are suburban distribution, traditionally represented by republicans, but where donald trump struggled compared to previous republican candidates in 2016. the voters there are more educated. that may be places where he wants to stay out. also, though, there are ten senate democrats running for re-election in states that donald

claimed victory over democrat danny o'connor to serve the remainder of former republican congressman pat tiberi's term. balderson leads by just 1754 votes and thousands of absentee and provisional ballots still need to be counted. o'connor is hoping to pull off a major upset. >> can you believe how close this is? we are in a tied ballgame. and you made this possible. juan: president trump had won the district in 2016 by a margin of more than 11%. regardless of who wins the special election, the two candidates will face off again in november. in kansas, the republican gubernatorial primary also remains too close to call. the race pitted the state's new governor jeff colyer against the state's former secretary of state kris kobach. earlier this week, president trump endorsed kobach, who had helped run trump's widely discredited presidential advisory commission on election integrity. amy: in michigan, rashida tlaib won the democratic primary primary for john conyers' old seat.. the palestinian-american politician had received endorsements from many progressive groups, including our revolution and th

in the last race here, pat tiberi, the republican who gave up this race to step aside, this was his worst county in the district. he got 57% down here. if franklin county stays red tonight, the republican will absolutely win. if it stays blue tonight, how big of a margin for danny o'connor and how much of a percentage from the overall district comes down here. it is very, very early. democrats are going to be encouraged by what they see early. but if you look at the full district, let's just count them. hang out a while. >> any sense of the sort of time for counting these votes traditionally? >> you've done this before. so what you get first right out of the box is you get the absentee ballots and the early votes. then you start to get the election day votes. and often, not always, that tends to happen in the suburban areas where they tend to have more resources, they have more technology. and the rural vote tends to come in a little later. i'm generalizing. sometimes the very small areas are done quickly because fewer people voted. there is no magic rule here. the main thing to watch is

vacant earlierft this year when republican congressman pat tiberi chose to retire before the end of his term. this is one hour and 15 minutes. and i am proud to be an american where at least i know i'm free. and i won't forget the men who died who gave that right to me, and i gladly stand up next to you, and remember still today, because there ain't no doubt i love this land god bless the usa from the lakes of minnesota to the hills of tennessee across the plains of africa from sea to shining sea from detroit down to houston and new york to l.a. where the pride in every american heart and it is time we stand to say that i am proud to be an american where at least i know i am free and i won't forget the men who died who gave that right to me and i glad -- i gladly stand up next to you and defend her still today because there ain't no doubt i love this land god bless the usa and i am proud to be an american where at least i know i am free and i want forget the men who died who gave that right to me and i gladly stand up next to you and defend her till -- still today because there ain't no

(catherine) voters in ohio's 12th district are choosing a replacement for representative pat tiberi..an who resigned to take a joate sector.. the candidates are troy balderson - a republican endorsed by president trump... and danny o'connor - a democrat. the special election is considered a test of president trump's clout....and cost both parties millions of dollars. considering the fact it's a conservative- leaning district...democrats insist it's significant that they've made it such a tight race. tom perez/democratic national committee: we saw the fact that a race that we had no business winning required $5 million dollars of republican money, a visit from the president.and that's why we keep winning in places where we have no business winning and we're competitive where the congressman in 2016 won by over 30 points. the candidates are separated by only about one percentage point. ohio law calls for an automatic recount if the two candidates are ultimately separated by less than half a percentage point. ken and pam?- (pam) another amazon prime and whole foods perk .... for customer

sahil: this is a special election to succeed pat tiberi who has been an incumbent in that seat for a he retired the session -- midsession. this is a special election to complete the last three months of his tenure. there will be a rematch between these two in november. on theouse seat is ballot. everyone faces reelection every two years in november. these two have already been selected to be the nominees in november. they are both going to run. i spoke to some people with the danny o'connor campaign, the democrat who is running, and they say win or lose, he intends to fight again. and to try to win that seat. let's also talk about something else everyone in washington is buzzing about. that is the trial of paul manafort. itot to go over here whether is gates testifying yesterday that he stole from anna ford and helped him commit the crimes of which they are accused or what struck me was the tension between the judge and the prosecutor. does that give us any sense of how quickly this trial will go? sahil: it is expected to last several weeks. there have been questions and eyebrows rai

around is if this district is competitive, and our plus seven district, the district john kasich and pat tiberi, the last two that won by a dozen points or ten points every single time, if this is competitive, then there are 80 seats in america that are competitive just like this. 80 republican seats in that kind of range that could be on the table come november. so democrats are seeing extremely rapidly their political map expand to a point where they could -- we don't know. just talking based on available information -- we could see a massive amount of seats flip, if a district like this is competitive. there are suburbs obviously all over the country that are less republican than this that could go. so we're seeing -- it almost doesn't even matter who wins tonight, because it's competitive, and that shows a really huge change in the political fortunes of the democratic and republican party. >> yeah. and, jake, it just shouldn't -- sorry about that, willie. jake, it just shouldn't be competitive. right? i mean, this is a race that republicans expected to easily lock up all along, and any repo

[applause] and the big shoes that i'll be filling, congressman pat tiberi.ould not have gone through a lot -- gotten through a lot without him in this process, congressman pat tiberi. [laughter] i would also like to take this to thank chairman steve stivers, he has been a great asset to me, helping me throughout this process. chairman, thank you. [laughter] there are many others, i could just keep going on and on. but tonight, i will promise you that i will work relentlessly for this 12th congressional district. [applause] america is on the right path and we're going to keep it going that way. [applause] it's time to get to work. over the next three months, i am going to do everything i can to keep america great again. so that when we come back here in november, get ready, we have to come back here in november- [applause] troy: i have earned your vote for a second term. danny o'connor ran a hard race, and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. thank you all so much for your support. the bless you, and god bless america. [applause] announc

the seat was held by pat tiberi, who resigned in january. >> ♪ i will stand my ground and i won't backown well, i know what is right i have got just one light in a world that keeps on pushing me around i'll stand my ground and i won't back down ♪ [applause] senator balderson: i will tell you what, can you believe how close this is? we are in a tight ballgame, and this possible, the grassroots individuals who have been knocking on doors, fighting for the future of our country. i am so grateful for all of your support. you believed in us. in a race that the pundits said we had any chance of being in. upy gerrymandered and carved a district to favor the establishment. you know what? they never saw you coming. i want to say something. i want to thank the people behind me, my family, my parents, my sister, my uncle buzz, and the love of my life, my fiancee. we just got engaged a couple of months ago. that is what is going on. --ill cut you what, this in campaign is something special. this campaign has gone from every corner of this district. we know if you want to represent the seven distri

tiberi. congressman pat [applause] would also like to take this opportunity to thank chairman steve stivers.e has been a great asset to me. chairman, thank you. there's many others. i could just keep going on and on. promise tom going to you that i will work relentlessly for this 12 congressional district. [applause] is on the right path and we're going to keep it going that way. [applause] it's time to get to work. next three months, i am going to do everything i can to keep america great again. when we come back here in november, get ready, we have got to come back in november. votes for ad your second time. race o'connor ran a hard and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. thank you also much for your support. blessess you and god america. [applause] >> we don't live in the same part of the country. we don't have the same in particular outlook. what we are all saying, men of color and women of color, the way we try to instill a sense of fear, you can call it respect, a sense of fear is a sobering consequence of what could happen if anything goes wrong. >> sunday night