valerie: we heard yesterday that pimco saw a $3 million loss from these at1's. pimco is a big holder of them and also blackrock and invesco, known to be decent sized holders of credit suisse at1's. there is some reporting these holders are preparing to push back on the regulators' decision to write off the debt. we are seeing some training -- trading going on in claims of these bonds as the market price some chance the market could recover some value. tom: maybe through jurisdictions or legal action, they could retain some value. what is the broader read across for the additional tier one space? valerie: it was brought to light about the permanent write-down of these bonds was more of the exception rather than the norm. when the market realized this, it let a lot of european at1's to move off the lows. we have barclays, bnp, santander, and the loss in version is not the same as the swiss law. when the market figured that out yesterday, these at1 bonds from european banks had a lift off the lows at which they opened, but still, this throws up existential question

pimco and invesco are among the top holders of credit suisse that securities that were wiped out by the ubs takeover with reuters reporting the california bond giant loss $340 million on its at1 position. vladimir putin said he is ready to discuss xi jinping's blueprint for ending the war in ukraine with the chinese leader in moscow for a three-day visit. francine: this is what futures are saying, mildly positive tone is the way i would describe it after the cast from yesterday in markets. they were worried about what is happening in the global financial system. today a little more positivity and may be credit suisse and ubs can be contained. tom: we will check in how they are trading. there is some reassurance coming through in terms of the reporting that u.s. officials are looking potentially at a temporary guarantee across all deposits in the u.s.. that is being worked out amongst regulators and government officials. you had the additional tier one bonds trading and rebounding. the financial sector picked up as well. optimism is flowing through into the european session in the first

where does pimco stand?if you think about the repricing for investors over the last year that has fallen on the heels of the fed tightening campaign, certainly it has been painful over the past year. absolutely as you look forward as you look at how much bond yields have repriced, we have been saying bonds are back this is significantly different macroenvironment than what we saw immediately following the pandemic. >> what are your assumptions about where the u.s. dollar goes from here? >> it's a good question. the challenge in thinking about the dollar outlook is what we have called the problem of the dollar smile if you will. more broadly, the fed potentially getting closer to the end of the tightening cycle would be consistent with perhaps the dollar continuing to show signs of peaking. then the challenge as well that if we were to see more significant weakness, if we were to see the credit conditions start crunch which is a risk case, we think that would be quite supportive of the dollar if we were to se

despite questions whether or not credit a pimco real estate firm defaulted on 1.7 billion dollars propertybanks tightening aggressively right now we have more fed comments, also impacting markets, yesterday, would be governor christopher said fed will need to raise rates higher than accepted levels to prevent inflation from picking up again, the comments posted on fed's web site and, yet, markets rallied on other comments from another fed official who said he is expecting 25 basis points hikes, next couple meetings, all in all, sent rates higher two year treasury 16-year high, happened yet this morning a pullback looking at 10-year and two-year yields above 4%. the highest in about four months, european markets nonetheless in green, take a look, president biden was set to meet german chancellor olaf schultz ffractionally higher cac quarante 48 dax higher, japan winner oeshgz fractionally "mornings with maria" is live right now. . >> and the mother who testified on o capitol hill this week being two sons died of fentanyl poisoning blasting president biden luggage quite a while speaking abou

haidi: coming up, pimco joins us to review the inflation numbers. the fed gets squeezed between price pressures and the banking sector. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the data still pointing towards inflationary pressures. >> inflation data is strong enough to have a hike next week. >> they will have to pivot towards maintaining financial stability. >> financial stability trumps inflation in the short run. >> maximum stability ensures it will not be 50 for sure. >> they wanted to 25. >> for them to not to 25 will be construed as tempting. >> if they had a pause in march, they could do that. >> if the markets are in distress, pausing is ok. >> it would not be an indictment of the tools they put in place. >> the ring fencing works. the fed goes back to hiking interest rates. >> this is a fed that will keep raising interest rates, until you see signs that inflation is slowing. shery: tv guests on the inflation data coming out of the u.s. our next guest says the turmoil around silicon valley bank also has push the u.s. economy closer to recession. pimco multi-

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it is the latest in a string of high-profile defaults that includes pimco and brookfield.are joined now by bloomberg's re who has had fantasticporter coverage of this. why did blackstone's lenders reject the capital injection and instead trigger the default? >> blackstone had made an offer to the creditors offering some equity in exchange for an extension of the loan. they have been trying to sell these properties, these parties are in finland. finland has extremely strict travel restrictions during covid and a huge land border with russia. investors have been very risk off about finnish properties which has made them difficult to sell. blackstone will eventually achieve a good price. but creditors rejected that deal and it appears to be because while the value of the properties has fallen, it has not fallen below the level of the debt, so they are confident ultimately but creditors will be made whole. dani: we have seen defaults by landlords in the u.s. i'm trying to evaluate whether this is something idiosyncratic. is this a global problem if it is in finland and the u.s

what you see with happening -- what's happening with pimco. it is one thing. there are so many forces coming together. if you have job losses in the tech sectors, you see so many terminations happening. by the day. you are losing employment. losing it means less demand for space. all the while, you are being challenged. their interest rates increasing, so your expenses are going up right at the same time that the demand for the product is going down. it is really the combined forces all coming together at the same time. >> you've also got a vc side to this business. i'm wondering what the fallout do your mind is from svb. >> from our venture side? it is very painful. i use that example. i absolutely love this. electron electrifies highways and cars. it is remote. i got to watch this, and it's in a local currency letter in israel. i got to watch this go from 30,000 to 2500, and you need to have that willingness to suffer through that pain and patience, and say, do i have my current courage of my -- conviction in the business, or will i cut and move on. i think

ed devlin, former cofounder of the pimco team here.ncome world and now the world is reacting to what we have quickly learned is a massive wipeout for bondholders. what was your reaction to that development? ed: one thing people have to recognize, this at1, this new market for dp subordinated debt, after the old financial crisis, european debt crisis, they were done in an ad hoc way. you cannot generalize that this will happen all across. you have to read each security, understand how they are structured. these particular securities were very strict on their write-downs. others have different triggers. you cannot say that this is bad for everything. kriti: what does that then mean for incentivizing people to hop into these kinds of bonds? not necessarily for credit suisse or be at dez ubs specifically but other european banks that depend on them? ed: all banks depend on them. this will put a little bit of a taint over this market for some time, as some people may have been a little complacent, did not check alltaint the terms and condit

pimco holds about $807 million of the so-called additional tier one bonds. has around $370 million. the bonds offer attractive returns in good times but take the first hit if the bank runs into trouble. the u.s. will send another $350 million to eight to ukraine military. the package includes ammunition, riverboats and other equipment. it is designed to keep ukraine from running out of artillery shells and missiles to use against russia. in the u.k., more than half of those surveyed believe the conservative government has not fixed problems caused by former prime minister liz truss's so-called mini budget. that resulted in a drop in the pound and higher mortgage rates. the survey was conducted by delta bowl for bloomberg news. car sales have increased for a seventh month in a row as supply chains improve. the european automobile manufacturers association says registrations jumped 12% in february to just over 900,000 vehicles. battery electric autos expanded the most, surging 34%. the u.k. and spain saw significant gains and renault ha\ change. global news po

unexpected firms got caught in the crossfire, asset managers pimco and investco the two largest holders in the ubs takeover holding more than a billion dollars worth of security for credit suisse between the two firms according to bloomberg. unlike u.s. deposits that might be gone for good, european and british banking regulators say equity holders come before those who held the riskier assets which i think came as a big surprise, though that's actually what the bonds were meant to do. they were after the european debt crisis to help banks hold more capital, and they were riskier, no question about it, and would be wiped out in financial turmoil. i think the surprise came in the fact the equity holders did better than the creditors in the deal. >> the paradigm of capital structure was always that bondholders and then hybrid bondholders and then equity holders, the bottom of the totem pole, the headlines caught a lot of people off guard. if you're a stockholder and you're being bought out nationalized, how would they get anything out of this when bondholders could get something out of it

investors including blackrock and pimco as part of plans for bonds. conglomerate is aiming to raise $1 billion in two tranches by the strategy. two groups may sell those proposed bonds. wall street banks looking to trade credit loans. it is the latest effort to capture a slicethe private credit industry. sources say j.p. morgan chase, goldman sachs, and barclays are talking about facilitating secondary market transactions. >> look at the currency space. we saw the dollar moving slightly today, strengthening against most currencies. investors digesting the latest remarks by fed officials and looking to core pce data thursday. were watching a call from bank of america that sees a risk of another fx liquidity crunch, this after all the bank turmoil. fx volatility is far from crisis levels after the collapse of svb bank, and even after the market emerged relatively unscathed from the latest banking issues, and implied volatility has jumped this month. you're looking at the trades in asian currencies. not a lot of movement, but the japanese yen at the mome

richard clarida, former fed vice and currently at pimco.evel versus rate of change. he feels a level of getting up to defeat inflation is important, but the speed to get to that level would be the history study of the next 24 months. jonathan: 12 months. zero to 450. tom: i did it on fancy paper and it was fast, fast, fast. jonathan: happy anniversary. 12 months today from the first hike. are we celebrating? not really. i thought that is why rich was on. the anniversary. tom: tang mimosa. jonathan: classy. ♪ if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. ever better. it's when disruption hits your supply chain and ryder makes sure you're ever delivering with freight brokerage to transportation management, truckload capacity and dedicated trucks and drivers. (je

jon: i like the quotation you have from paul macauley formally of pinko -- from pimco. >> paul stressed is teaching at georgetown that par is a whole different story than where you get it now and that's what people have to realize. asset price stability, there is none for any of the securities. people have to realize -- he said the only thing that's 100% for sure is an fdic insured deposit and other than that, you don't know what you will get in the market. i thought his points were very valid and he's interesting and colorful the way he speaks. alix: it's a great article and thank you for joining us. let's continue about the risks facing banks. eric cassidy joins us now from rbc capital markets and he's the creator of the texas ratio which is used by investors to determine whether a bank could be insolvent. you were probably busy the last few weeks. you cover most of the big banks and most of the nice big regional banks and you have a positive view on them. does that imply an expectation of lending continuing and regulation not coming on? >> thank you for having me. our outlook anticip

tiffany wilding of pimco joins us next to walk us through.be a really important story as they talk about specifically what is happening in the currency market. the stock market is lower on the day, not a ton of conviction. you are seeing light volume but that could change on friday with payrolls report. the 10-year yield inching closer to 4%. 3.98. more markets coverage ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh oh booking.com, ♪ i'm going to somewhere, anywhere. ♪ ♪ a beach house, a treehouse, ♪ ♪ honestly i don't care ♪ find the perfect vacation rental for you booking.com, booking. yeah. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, booking. i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending

sources at bloomberg telling us adani group executives have met investors, blackrock, pimco, and othersmarket privately placed bonds, aiming to raise $1 billion in two tranches this way. two groups made silt those proposed bonds. china market insurance and profit down 37% to the stock market rout and a surge in covid cases for the nation's largest life insurer. while an economic opening has improved prospects for insurers, an increase in covid cases hampered profits. two of china's biggest oil/gas providers with record profit numbers down to the fuel crisis price surge. after china jumping 62 but -- petrochina jumping 62%, while cnooc saw earnings double to $20.5 billion. they say a rebounding economy help to impact slower growth, and they are aiming to lift output in 2023. haslinda: let's look at the stocks of sinopec, petrochina, cnooc on the back of what you mentioned. sinopec unchanged despite the jump in profit. cnooc down. petrochina up. we are watching china banks out with earnings. thank of community -- bank of communications, back bank, others in play -- tag bank, all in play.

at least a multi- month process according to pimco.all negative for stocks overall so let's move on to the bond market. again we have to tell you, this is the flight to safety. again, treasuries are safe. you hold them to majority and get a tax break on the interest as well but right now the yield on the ten year treasury down to three or two, the money comes in, price goes up, the guild goes down. one bright side to the tenure, all the way down is mortgage rate may fall in the immediate future because mortgage rate, 30 year fixed tied to the ten year treasury so way down on the tenure, what was the tenure again? down -- tenure is 342 so mortgage rates may get a break. >> to your tied to bed expectations and 45% chance the fed does nothing looking at fed funds futures, nothing next week. stuart: we moved on to tech stocks, they are not as badly hit as some of the rest of the market down a fraction, the biggest loser, none of them are down more than 1% because the treasury yields are so far down, it tends to be good news for the big tec

investors including from black rock, blackstone, and pimco as part of plans to market privately placedds. the conglomerate is looking to raise up to $2 million through this route. adani transmission and green may sell their proposed bonds. wall street banks looking to trade private credit loans, this is the latest efforto capre a slice the $1.4 trillion private credit industry. j.p. morgan chase, goldman sachs, and barclays are among the forums talking to private debt funds by facilitating secondary market transactions -- . petrochina's annual net income down to 62% to $21.6 billion. earnings doubled to $20.5 billion. the two producers forecasted a rebound in domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth and the aim to lift output in 2023. haidi: let us take a look at the day ahead for australia. they job vacancy data is due out in a couple of hours time that follows a decline of 4.9%. jim chambers is set to meet with financial regulators monitoring the financial banking situation. this is a story that is doing the rounds, unions are pushing for the largest minim

setting the agenda, former managing pimco director paul mccully. why he is fighting with the market over the fed for now. >>> maxine waters is with us as congressional hearings on the collapse of silicon valley bank kick off today. >>> later, two takes on the consumer, the ceos of both mccormick and tapestry join us this hour. >>> as for the market day, relatively muted. dow is basically flat. s&p having trouble getting above 4k. got some tier 2 ecodata. yesterday was the tightest s&p range and lightest volume we've had since the banking crisis began. in a way, it's a bit of a pause that's refreshing, in a sense. >> because the back drop is, two straight weeks of gains for stocks, led by technology, the s&p growth value hit the highest rate since october because treasury yields plunged on the view that the fed is going to be cutting sooner rather than later and will be cutting interest rates. now we see if the market feels confident about that situation. the latest economic data we've gotten is kind of inconclusive. we did get the march numbers on

alix: what i find so fascinating, pimco saying they are going to pause in march.se are before the cpi number. does the cpi number have to be crazy what to put it back on the table? where is the symmetric risk? winnie: it is a challenging thing to figure out. as recently as last tuesday and wednesday, the market was pricing in a 50-basis-point hike. to reverse some significant the and quickly would be a really fine line for the fed to walk. intrinsic credibility overall. alix: can the fed to take a brief pause? crazy things are happening, we will wait to see what happens. we have still got an inflation problem, but we don't know whether or not we will see a significant tightening of financial conditions. is the fed allowed to do that? is the fed allowed to take its time here? winnie: the fed makes their own rules and they can do whatever they want. potentially taking a bit of a pause makes a lot of sense. they went ahead and hiked into a market liquidity spoon and that was highly problematic and resulted in a selloff in asset classes. alix: the fed came out and sai

tiffany wilding, pimco managing director joins bloomberg at 2:00 p.m. new york time.loomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, here is the first word. the justice department has sued norse -- sued norfolk southern at -- over the chemical spill that forced the evacuation of a small town in ohio. the lawsuit says chemicals polluted local waterways and flow downstream after the crash in february. no response yet from norfolk southern. bitcoin has made a surprisingly fast exit from its crypto winter. with a roughly 70% gain the notoriously volatile currency is closing out its best quarter in two years. and it is the best-performing asset class by a wide margin. market watchers are at odds for the reasons behind the rally. donald trump becomes the first u.s. president to face criminal charges. a manhattan ground -- grand jury has decided there was enough evidence to move ahead with a case against him for his role in paying a point star during the 2016 election. trump describes the case as an effort by democrats to destroy the make america great again

pimco defaulting on a $ billion mortgage across seven different buildings.zon pausing it's headquarters in virginia. so how do you separate the weakest from the rest? let's bring in john, a real estate analyst good to have you here. welcome. >> thanks, kelly >> i think they were all trying to figure out whether the worst is upon us, and this data -- and by the way, the title of your note is "staying alive till 2025." the national vacancy rate is 13%, will peak at 14% next year, then improve so you see trouble for vornado because they have a number of leases coming due. >> the next two years are crucial for the office space who knows when demand is going to pick up optimists say the earliest that's going to be is the second half of next year. you look at the balance sheet of these companies. you really start to get some relief next year so a lot of the companies really need to navigate tough waters this year and next we're focusing on companies who had the most risk near term, and one of the reasons -- >> for those less familiar with it, they mostly work in c

coming up, tiffany wilding, pimco manager joins bloomberg tv at 2:00 p.m. new york time. bloomberg. alix: one of the major moves of the first quarter is what happened in the bond market. the two year yield was looking at dramatic swings. we are talking 20 basis points on a day-to-day basis. at some .16 basis points seemed normal. this has posed a ton of risk in what is supposed to be a risk-free asset. we saw the mismatch when it came to banks. it has been painful when it comes to certain portfolio managers. it's get the take from the insurance side. lloyd's of london's cfo joins us now, burkhard keese. woods of london is the world's largest insurance exchange. great to get your perspective. you look at the first quarter, you look at the bond market, what goes through your mind? burkhard: we are not a bank, we are insurance, and we have. long liabilities, and we need to match our assets and liabilities. when you expect rising rates you need to have a shorter duration, because then the liability loses more value then you lose on the asset side. that is how we do it. that w

joining me now is pimco's head of public policy. livy, welcome. what do you mean by that?we are talking about the administration's ability to insure deposits to provide a broad-based guarantee, kelly. and it's very much -- the federal reserve has a lot of discretion regarding the requirements that they can impose on banks with assets over $100 billion. there's been a lot of focus on senate bill 2155 that was for 2018 regulatory relief bill. that bill still allowed for the fed to have discretion again in terms of imposing liquidity and capital requirements. i think vice chair barr previewed that very likely the fed will use that discretion going forward. so just to be clear, our comments have been really about the uninsured depositors, what the administration has a unilateral ability to increase that $250-k level. but, again, the fed does have and did have discretion over banks with assets over $100 billion, which could have captured svb and signature bank. >> so your comments echo what mark said earlier this hour. he think there is is a 30% chance that anything happens on

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that's really on the commercial side occurring two defaults, pimco, brookfield, defaulting on office buildings these things have already been in motion. this is what i mean we didn't see this coming a week ago, or 99% of people did not see this coming now it's the all clear, i don't think so to your point, tim you made earlier about the cost of capital moving higher. rest assured that banks now will be forced to have more capital and like it or not, the big banks are about to get bigger. as we're sitting here, it's probably happening right now that is not what the regulators wanted to see. to your point, it doesn't change anything what it did was basically moved the fed from a terminal rate or market expectations from almost had gotten as high as 6% here really to 5. and now attend of the year, i'm looking, see a meeting and fed fund futures are at 4. what we did is got the relief rally associated with the fed stopping, but the truth is the aftermath of this i think actually the economy, if you believe it's going to slow down, it just aksel rated that slowdown because banks have to r

we've gotten calls from the likes of nomura they could potentially cut goldman sachs, pimco, also sayingcould take a breather next week. haidi: there is another way of looking at it which is does this banks backstop need anything by qed? saying they may need to end the quantitative tightening program early to preserve the amount of bank reserves in the financial system while keeping its hawkish signaling on rates. there are many different ways strategists are interpreting to interpret this. so much focus when it comes to data. what that cpi report is going to tell us and whether it's going to remain key when it comes to the calculus of what we expect from the fed policy path forward. take a look at the markets -- looking like another risk down day as we get into the start of trading in tokyo and seoul, next. >> this is daybreak asia. we are catching onto asia's major market open. the ongoing reaction to the backstop for u.s. banks by regulators here. and what that means for the fed rate hike, we have already seen that huge rate rising in the markets. >> a huge reaction and still really l

have a lot of holders from pimco to bluebay having held these coco's feeling they were relatively safe. we have never seen a rescue of this type before. a private rescue backstopped by the government. you have others like double line saying they should have known better. all this is happening on twitter any real-time. saying he was now a buyer of at1 it's because people should have known the risks. this is a debate that is out there. the nature of this rescue is what the bondholders will be fighting at the end of the day. one thing to watch for is what their be any legal action taken to recoup any value and if that were to happen how much would they get? these are things weighing in the minds of the folks who lost so much money over time given this rescue while it was sudden and over a weekend, was it so sudden? this bank has been under a lot of pressure for a lot of time. we sell the first rescue from the swiss national bank. so complicated and frankly quite ugly. with that said i think there is a sense of comfort. i have been talking to bank ceos and all night and the sense there is

former pimco chief economist, now at georgetown university you think they're not going to go next weekike? >> i think they will be on hold next week which will be called a pause for a lot of good reasons and in the fullness of time it will prove to be the end of the tightening cycle and the nx move later in the year, very late in the year possibly, we will see a cut. i think this tightening cycle is over the fed is sufficiently restricting, in light of the new shock that is tightening financial conditions on main street, not just wall street. >> i get that argument, paul, but look, this is a fed that does not want to be behind the curve of inflation they already were at the beginning of this whole thing and they really want it to come down, and it has not come down that much and we still have indications that core cpi, even today, came in hotter than expected how can they give up that fight? >> i think it's true that they were behind the curve at the beginning, but you don't stay behind the curve when you tighten 450 basis points in a year, so i think it's time for the fed to be humble

setting the agenda, former managing pimco

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i think this pimco-owned building default kind of spooked some folks bmo also saying slg, s.l.llion of assets that's the position that you say. >> and sl green again, they do have a lot of "a," but they got a lot of "b" too i wanted to come back to tesla if we might, just because, why not? it's the most followed company by all of retail, as review learned. stock is up 1.4% after what was a significant drop in the stock yesterday, perhaps some have called it on disappointment that more wasn't shared at tesla's investor day meeting about the next model that will be coming but something that i had not focused on until later yesterday, guys, and i don't know if you saw it, but it gets back to a.i. and certainly some concerns that certain people might have >> yourself included >> he's talking a lot about robots i don't know if you caught this. the humanoid robot they're developing there at tesla, it's improved a great deal in six months the sort of exponential change going on there take a listen to what musk had to say about how many robots there may be at some point in the future a

pimco suggested that maybe the fed pauses in march. i share this quote with you from the team at namura. we expect the five -- the fed to cut t five basis points. we expect the fed to stop qt. lisa: this was shocking because it raises this issue of have they deflated -- defeated inflation? this is the ultimate question of the morning. if an asteroid were facing the earth, would the central banks print money and when have we run out of ammunition if inflation is still a problem is still something central banks have to fight? jonathan: the estimate is for cpi to come it at -- to come in at 6%. tom: we will have to see this in the service sector. i cannot say enough of how mr. powell right now needs help and assistance from the data. talk about data dependent, this is a whole new character of data dependency we've never seen. jonathan: on the s&p 500, positive by 0.4% on the s&p 500. the move over the last three days has been phenomenal. euro-dollar is -0.2%. lisa: 8:30 a.m., what will be the biggest pain to trade? this market is inflicti

people in#d■ industry about it w3exdçórecent of course we'veqñ all seenÑbig companmh&ike brookfield and pimcog forward i and just keep paying them,xd i(r >> that'se1 interesting. because we have had people recently kind of saying that there needs to be a big bailout for this xdtoo. i don't even know what that would look like,kowiçó when con doesn't want to bail out Ãthem, i don't know what hope any of these commerci)4"real estate guyst( have of getting -- >> Ñiyeah, and he callsÑi it ex and Ñipretend,xdÑi which is an and Ñipretend,xdÑi which is an intere+t9u going forward. diana, thank you. >>> coming xdup, news of first citizens bank buying ar citizens bank buying ar chunk of silicon vall@pp'k, eg you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. >

lisa: something we heard from tiffany over at pimco. the question is is is the end of the rate hiking cycle and when do they talk about cuts. i think you raise an important point,'s -- financial stability issues here than just versus what was in the united kingdom. how they signal its material addition to what they've done. acceleration in a way they don't need to do much more. how do they do that well? >> to julian's point i get it. if they knew something what was he doing two days before teeing up 50. it doesn't matter what i think. and there is a belief that but a lot of people more dovish they are today, the worse they believe the situation is. >> there's a believe crowds our collective wisdom and the collective wisdom has been a little bit having issues. >> it's changed about five times. we've not gone through q1 yet. down a 10th of 1%. julian will stick with us. catching up with stuart kaiser this morning. >> keeping up to date with news around the world with the first word on lisa mateo. the federal reserve caught between inflati

she is a north american economist at pimco.s kind of not the issue anymore. it is when they start cutting. from your vantage point, what is the answer? tiffany: i think it's really going to depend on how this situation escalates. really, the issue here is how tight our financial conditions. what this has revealed is that they are actually quite tight. i think there's a lot of question around that because maybe the impact on the economy or labor market was a bit slower than some had expected. but these things happen in a nonlinear fashion. i think with the situation revealed is that financial conditions are quite tight. i think the question for central bankers will be, have they tightened so dramatically as a result of the bank stress, which is going to put pressure on lending? have they tightened so much that may be the federal reserve needs to think about interest rate cuts? unfortunately, i don't think they are there yet. we are still discussing of they're going to do 25 or not. but certainly, if history is a guide, when they