i like the latest on the pmi.he services figure coming in above what was expected and above positive territory. is this a good snien. >> i wonder what is driving this. is this a confidence rebound post-u.s. election. european consumers know about the prospect of the trade war. the first signs we have from the trump administration is there hasn't been a u.s., preliminary escalation. also we hear from christine lagarde, head of the ecb, similar key figures in europe that maybe europe is likely to do a deal rather than escalate like in 2018. if i'm a consumer in europe, i'm less afraid of a trade war. that may push up the number. >> we will see what is the final reading. this is the flash pmi. in the meantime, let's look at the ecb. from the meeting last week, there is concern about the growth outlook here. explain to us what you are expecting in terms of rates for next year and is there pressure on the ecb to actually cut by a lot in 2025? >> if i were the ecb, i would look to send a big signal. economic logic argue

that's the global pmi composite figure. indeed above what had come through in the first reading. but indeed, it also crosses the line of that 50 benchmark which is important as well. so just marginally in a positive territory for the time being. in terms of the services pmi figure, the final reading came in at 50.8. that's also slightly higher from what we had gotten initially. but it just crosses that 50 benchmark threshold, which is of course important, because it distinguishes between contraction and positive territory. but nonetheless, it still shows it fuels those concerns about where the uk economy is going, what sort of growth we'll see in this nation. in the meantime, i also want to take you through how european equities are trading this morning. in terms of how the stoxg 600 is moving, the benchmark up seeing mostly green so far, continuing the positive sentiment we had already seen on tuesday as well as on monday, really. so it seems the investors are putting aside, for the time being, concerns around the politica

year and gold also a touch weaker today but finally checking on asian markets, we have the chinese pmi data this morning, more to come later in the week. the asia pacific index currently .1% weaker and asian stocks set for a quarterly loss as the year end. the hang seng stronger and the yen at .156 per dollar. let's get more on this treasury hack. the u.s. treasury saying a chinese estate back tack or gained access to workstations and classified documents earlier this month and that hack happened through a third-party provider that also does the work for the defense in justice department so of course usually concerning but china has disputed the claim so let's get more from john harney. he joins us from washington. tell us what we know about what happened here. >> we learned about this from a letter that treasury sent to lawmakers on capitol hill. it was this breach that was discovered by the vendor some time in early december and as you say it empirically involved workstations and according to the treasury, unclassified documents were accessed by these operatives apparently associated

we will get the euro area figure and then china pmi as we get manufacturing pmi on thursday and a bitf eco-data jobless claims and commentary from thomas barkin on friday but january 9 is a national day of mourning for jimmy carter who died age 100. the one time peanut farmer leaves a legacy of promoting peace. longest living former u.s. president will receive state funeral in washington, date not yet announced. >> america and the world lost a remarkable leader but millions around the world all over the world feel they lost a friend. even though they never met him because jimmy carter lived a life measured by deeds. lizzy: let's bring in kriti gupter. where about to have a new president so what lessons can we learn? kriti: so many things are the issues of the present day, a rundown most famously kim david accords between israel and egypt. the idea he got egypt to acknowledge israel's right to exist in exchange for areas that are crucial for the peace deal, the cease-fire, dating back to carter and panama canal during carter's control was handed back to panama. these questions are cruc

today with notable attention on the european pmi's. last time around, they were disappointing. we saw weakness in manufacturing spreading into services. it's notable all three of the main composite indicators are in contraction and are expected to stay there across france, germany and the wider eurozone composite well -- and while sentiment across europe is sour the one asset class not seeing that by as it crossed the 106 handle. bitcoin is having some of its best weeks of the year and has now risen for seven weeks in a row, a lot of positivity coming around the deregulation still pushing this price higher. >> 105,000 on bitcoin. valerie, thank you, breaking down the moves around bitcoin and the central-bank action and with an eye on the pmi data later today. we do get that data and valerie is illustrating why that is consequential. wednesday, it is the rate decision, expected to go 25 basis points. the fed will cut, the boj may be also. thursday, boj, bank of england in that order. a little bit of uncertainty. the bank of england desp

>> well, a backdrop from pmi to contraction to expansion and something we expect next year and one wheres tighten a lot, and investors sentiment explodes to the upside. we've already gotten all of that but not -- we vent seen the data exploding to the upside yet. this is not a market call. this is more about leadership in the market and what potentially we could see with ex-weties next year and without all the expansion in the next two years and priced out recession risk, inflation risk and tightening risk, election risk, basically all the risks so what it means is market returns not as explosive. charles: the data today and seems like it's fit to the script, which you're describing and particularly new recorders going into expansion and sharp decline in prices and seems like a dream come true but again, if it's already built into the market, then it >> going back and looking at market pes like this year up about 20% and pretty much all come in periods where ism going from contraction to e pangs territory and in a sense, we've got that and ironically the ism has been weak and the two yea

france pmi's. that is u.k. time, we will get france pmi's with a touch on the health of that economy given the political challenges. 9:00 a.m. u.k. time the oecd economic outlook report will draw. at 7:00 p.m. the fed beige book, jay powell speaking later today as well, some color on the health of the u.s. economy from the beige book that's at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. you can get a roundup of the stories to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb . the focus is on the vote as they put it in daybreak in france, but also what is transpiring in south korea. as governments grapple with funding constraints, our next guest says ai can be a big part of the solution. that conversation, the report and the date is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak europe." with governments around the world facing mounting financial pressures, we get reminders of that politically this week, my next guest says artificial intelligence can offer agile solutions. i a

seeing a bit of that come through in exports from china to the us and that is feeding through to the pmiell. changes are tariffs actually come into effect next year. actually come into effect next ear. ., ., ,., year. then the government also thinkin: year. then the government also thinking about _ year. then the government also thinking about how _ year. then the government also thinking about how they - year. then the government also thinking about how they are - thinking about how they are going to address these tariff threats from trump? absolutely. from a third _ threats from trump? absolutely. from a third perspective - threats from trump? absolutely. from a third perspective it - threats from trump? absolutely. from a third perspective it is - from a third perspective it is about trying to find new markets to be able to send what you are making. can you find alternative markets around the world? incredibly tricky because we do not have another market like the us to be able to sell to. you then have to look domestically. we know the domestic economy is incredibly weak at the moment

data wrote today, a pmi survey, shows the growth divergence widening between the us and europe, it isfferent situation in the us where industry there has been given a boost by the prospect of a new government in the new year that is by all accounts going to be pro—business, looser regulations, more protectionism for us businesses. the european industry counterparts to that aren't seeing any assistance from the government so they are going to be calling on any new administrations in europe to really start to give them a hand and a coordinated effort across europe to be able to compete with the us. always aood to compete with the us. always good to talk _ compete with the us. always good to talk to _ compete with the us. always good to talk to you, - compete with the us. always good to talk to you, thank. compete with the us. always l good to talk to you, thank you, chris williamson. one of the uk's oldest businesses are set to pass into foreign ownership for the first time in its 500 year history. the royal mail — which has been delivering post since sixteenth century — has been cleare

pmi is weak across the whole of europe. listen to the story of bmw.hey may have to improve the debt brake to improve the fiscal growth. there are a lot of things in europe. italy has improved just like greece and spain, but you know with the levels of debt, they cannot afford to have a problem with fiscal problems or lack of confidence in the market because they do require the bond market to continue to support them in their issuance. i think it is all about maintaining investor confidence. we have seen that in the uk as well before when we had the truss era with the loss of confidence in the gilt market. we saw that this year when they would borrow more. that put pressure on the gilt market and in the u.s. as well with the trump election t. is important is important in the u.s. as well. that would become problematic. we have to be aware of the potential risks for italian debt as well. >> i would like to understand how you read a potential intervention from the ecb if they decide to use their instrument, the tpi, in case whether that is france or that

s&p global�*s pmi data for december rose by more than expected, with a marked reduction in manufacturing the uk ahead of christrmas, with a drop in visits to the high street, retail parks and shopping centres in the last two weeks. according to new data from rendle intelligence and insights, footfall during the first half of december has fallen by over 3% compared to the same period that is all we have time for, thank— that is all we have time for, thank you _ that is all we have time for, thank you so much for watching, stay with— thank you so much for watching, stay with us here on bbc news. welcome back. we have some more developments to bring you on this alleged chinese spy with links to prince andrew. he has now been named after a court order protecting his identity was lifted, he is here a businessman named as yang tengbo, previously only being known as h six. he was banned from the uk last week by a semi—secret national security court. the important thing to note here is that it was him that agreed to have his anonymity lifted and we know more about what he and his lawyers are thi

>> david, big miss on december chicago pmi.e know manufacturing hasn't looked good in a while, it's been a long while. 36.9 is our december read. we're expecting the number around 43. that now makes 27 months, if you look at the last 27 months, we've had only one reading above 50, and that was in november of last year. 27 months, one reading above 50. of course, this is a big miss. we can continue most likely not only to look at the slowdown in manufacturing, but many are assessing exactly what's going on in the service sector. interest rates are down, 455 and a 10 is down 8, 425 in a two-year is also down 8. we see still see 29 plus on 2s to 10s which is in the neighborhood of the steepest that curve has been since early june of 2022. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. louis! cut! more mud! action! louis, louis! cut mud on her face! louis! okay everybody, that's lunch! (♪♪) (♪♪) mud mask? no, no, no! compare hotels in the hotels.com app do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can se

the ten year bonds were flat today and i think we saw some decent pmi, that was global. so i think that will weigh on the economy, but not as much as the positive of the sort of growth in the economy -- >> i don't think that growth is going to come in that much worse. talking about earnings growth and economic growth. we saw how gdp growth was trending this back half of the year, better than expected. my point is that if yields continue to go higher, we get 4.5% or higher in the ten year the dollar continues to rally, i think that is a headwind for earnings growth. i don't know how much of a headwind it is for economic growth but when i think about earnings growth and consensus, we are looking at 12%, 13% expected growth. that has not come in or gone higher too much in the last year or so. there is a lot of things that have to happen to justify the multiple expansion we've seen over the course of this year. >> i would just say three quick things. if you are thinking about the economic environment the number for next year is trending around 2.1 the average back to the '70

for areas where there are hints of improvements, you have the bar of expectations remarkably low the pmifrance where all the european discretionary stocks are a 41 what a good rule of thumb? pmis in the low 40s, buy the stocks the bar of expectations has been lowered to such a degree where it's tough to surprise on the downside further so i think something might be starting to brew there you have the currency weaker, rates down is that the set up for the equities to show up on the other side >> well, because you also have, you know, central banks in europe cutting more swiftly and sharply potentially than we are here. >> and i think, scott, one of the reasons why i'm reluctant to get to bearish u.s. bonds here when you look at european yield, closer to the lows than the highs and you have seen the move in chinese bond yields, had freefall here. how high with u.s. go when the rest of the world rates seem to be pressured >> that's a good point how are you watching what's taking place in crypto >> yeah. >> what does to tell you, if anything i mentioned something earlier about risk sentiment

expectations about the economy and hiring has increased and we saw the same thing happen in the regional pmiting that started reverse to the downside so if this euphoria of these animal spirits we saw immediately post election start to dissipate over next couple of months the trajectory will still be for higher unemployment rate as we move to the first half. charles: the improvement in small mid cap businesses, could that be reflected in the stock market? we've seen again yes, this week was rough for the russel, because if the rates stay higher for longer that doesn't help a lot of the smaller names. yeah, look we priced in a lot of euphoria there immediately post-election. we've given up a lot of the outperformance in small caps since then. i think the clarity that we have on taxes going into the end of next year, so if we can get rid of the pass through taxes and extend the upper-income taxes, if we can do some deregulation. regulation impacts mid and small cap businesses much more than it does large-cap businesses so to the extent you do that to the extent you reaccelerate the capex cycle

we see some cyclical improvement in some data like manufacturing pmi's but the upside is somewhat limited but that are nonethel nonetheless. >> do you want to stick to the high flyers a lot of the risk on names have come off of their eyes, looking piquant, big tech, do you like those names now and would you put money to work there. >> companies that will continue to see free cash flow and earnings momentum in our opinion will continue to outperform. i do want to narrow it down to the mag seven but what you do want to avoid is stocks that have become expensive and purely betting on interest rates going down. that's an area of the market in that small caps in a way that certainly had a great move in early in the fourth quarter when ray started coming down if rates stay sticky in inflation stays sticky the larger companies will continue to outperform because you have economies and continue to do well in this environment. maria: we will leave you there, always a pleasure. have a wonderful christmas, michael kantrowitz trump's tara threats has kidded the scrambling for action with the month un

coming up monday, s&p global pmi's and then on tuesday, we are going to get u.s. retail sales.nesday, it is the big one. it is the fed's last rate decision of 2024. plus, earnings from micron and general mills. thursday, we will get u.s. gdp rate decisions from the boe and boj. and earnings from fedex and nike. friday, it is u.s. pc inflation data. -- u.s. pce inflation data. there is one day that matters. that's the big one. as to what we will get, all eyes on the dot plot, all eyes on the summary of economic projections. in what might be incorporated into the summary of economic projections, we were seeing from bill dudley, the new york fed president -- former new york fed president responding to comments in november, saying his response in november was categorical. we don't guess, speculate or assume. this time around, he's going to have to be. that comes on wednesday. for now, that was it for "real yield." enjoy the rest of your friday from new york. ♪ where can nfl fans get a great deal that turns christmas day into game day? x marks the spot. the nfl is streaming christma

andrew: pmi's have been down for two years.t doesn't reflect how weak the industrial economy is but if you have pmi over 50 if we do not have a recession and pmi goes over 50, since the 1960's the average outperformance has been 9%, outperformance has been 20% plus. investors are waiting for the pmi to turn over 50. i think that that's probably the biggest theme into 2025. we expect that to happen sometime in april. having said that i would say that the grid story is probably the biggest -- having said that, the grid story is probably the biggest over the next decade. decades of underinvestment in the confluence of shorting and tariffs. you have electrification, you have ev's, you have data centers. all of this comes together. to us, the grid epitomizes the confluence of all of these mega trends that you talk about and you have visibility for the next decade. the last time that we invested in the grid was in the 1960's and 1970's. it is falling apart. annmarie: thank you for your time. interesting stuff. saying that investors m

if he is fixing foundations, why is it that the pmi index shows that business confidence has crashedsince the budget? prime minister starmer: we are fixing the foundations. we got record investment into this country. she talks about tax rises. two weeks ago, she stood there and said that she wanted all the investment and all the benefits of the budget. but she did not know how she was going to pay for it. i notice that having come here criticising the national insurance rises over and over again, on monday she admitted that she would not reverse the position. meanwhile her science minister was saying energetically that he would do the opposite. they haven't got a clue what they are doing. >> if you want to know what conservatives would do, he should resign and find out. until then -- [hon. members: "more!"] >> i will decide when there is more. >> until then, i am the one asking the questions. there is a petition out there with 2 million people asking the right hon. and learned gentleman to go. he is the one who does not know how things work. it is not governments who create growth; i

remember those pmi's back in november.t the press conference the last time, christine lagarde said the risk on inflation work tilted to the downside. maybe we get that upgraded in the same at this time. further out, the big debate is where rates settle. where is neutral and do they need to go below it? economists a 2% is where rates will end up. traders reckon 1.75% roughly and all comes down to the fundamental question of the limitations of monetary policy. mario draghi laid out so boldly the problems of the euro area economy, the poor productivity, the lack of financial integration, the dearth of skilled workers. really what can monetary policy do to solve all that? this is what isabel schnabel said in her interview with her and makes the case to start cutting rates sooner. tom: lizzie, thank you very much indeed with a preview of the ecb. we will have live coverage of that ecb decision and coverage starting at 1:15 p.m. u.k. time. the strength of the frank in focus as well. despite the threat of stiffer tariffs on china

. >> some of the pmis at the bottom of your screen.rick santelli. >> reporter: this is the manufacturing pmi and it's a final reit. we removed the mid month reit which was the best going back to july of this year. but it did improve, 49.7. it now moves back a month in its comp. it's the best number since june, and it's still the fifth in a row under 50. when was the last time it was above 50? you guessed it, june, when it was slightly above 50. we have construction spending at the top of the hour. interest rates are up. friday we saw them drop. back to turkey day, we're basically unchanged on a two year. up half a dozen in a ten-year. "squawk on the street" will return after a very short break. [alarm beep] you make it through security so fast, ♪♪ the agents applaud. your travel itineraries are so well written, they're on the best seller list. and you have access to lounges that don't officially exist. that's why you rent with national, where you can skip the counter and choose any vehicle on the emerald aisle. because travel isn't a c

we got to chicago pmi for december falling unexpectedly to a sudden month low that does not help theut the dow is up 650 points, down 1.5%, the s&p downward in half and the nasdaq down one and three quarters% let's take a look at the ten year treasury which itself was falling in his dance

>> again, highlighted again yesterday when you had the german pmi data coming in yesterday, missing estimates and extending that streak of uninterrupted contraction and also looking at the surveys into next year, they released that across all the sectors. every sector is pessimistic and only one in eight companies in germany expect the situation to improve next year. one third expect it to deteriorate further. this highlights the pressure point. what is interesting is we have now heard from the cdu. they say they are basically not willing to move on the debt break good olaf scholz wants to spend more money on infrastructure and defense and of course a preserve all that social welfare that exists in germany but when you look at the polls, what we will get basically no matter what is a no other -- is another coalition government, and part of the problem has been that ungoverned ability because you have disagreements on how to spend and raise money and that is pointing to the other elephant in the room. regardless of who gets elected, there's the presidency of donald trump. as we sort of marched

we're going to see new money factoring pmis as well as construction spending figures.are also due to speak and speaking of the fed, it is likely to be the market event this week. the fact that we're going to get a new jobs report on friday. let's see what the numbers are going to tell us and indeed how investors are going to react in terms of seeing the fed cutting rates or not, later this month. >> yeah, we'll be watching for that. let's turn the page. it is december. it's now the holiday shopping season. americans continue to indulge in black friday sales. mostly online shopping. i did a little myself. what does that say about bigger consumer spending trends? >> me, too. so, when you think about the latest numbers for black friday and it's worth pointing out that these are only initial numbers. it was a strong day for retailers in the united states, and particularly, when you think about online spending, just to give you an idea, brick and mortar sales grew .7%. online sales grew by 14.6%. they do highlight the consumers are still feeling the pressures from the livin

economy is humming along and later this hour we will get pmi data followed by retail sales om

we got to chicago pmi for december falling unexpectedly to a sudden month low that does not help the sentiment but the dow is up 650 points, down 1.5%, the s&p downward in half and the nasdaq down one and three quarters% let's take a look at the ten year treasury which itself was falling in his dance evident half basis points to 4.55% while under the 4.6 that we saw last week. let's take a look at oil and c were attended and all of this up 59 cents $71.19 a barrel and bitcoin let's see where bitcoin is it was slightly lower earlier and there it is slightly lower it's actually down $2700.91604. bitcoin with the economic data we got the latest read on pending home sales the number. >> in november of two-point to percent, to 79 your hire form into the room this is the best rating since february of 2023 and this is why the national association of realtors says buyers are no longer waiting for mortgage rates to fall substantially and are signing the contracts pending home sales indicator contract signed a deal not close. >> thank you very much there is no particular news that you can poin

would look at business confidence we have seen an increase i early surveys that have come out like the pmi survey an manufacturing services, home builder survey the creasing. and most importantly whether that leads to more cap or hiring or more deal activity. and away for us to play th risk-on idea beyond corporat credit is also in privat markets. that's our favorite way of thinking about deregulation an increasing risk-on activitie much more through private equity where you can see some deals take shape finally after it ha been frozen for a few years an you get some liquidity bac finally. >> what is your best risk-on i we want to play it that way? because that's what th environment is and some sugges it is not ending any time soon so what's the best idea? >> if you look at momentum a the purest factor, it is havin the strongest year over the last five years and it has made a return after being dormant for the last two years i think you have to respect that factor itself. i think what it does, in the case of bitcoin ethereum, by having options associated with the etps, you have institution

this is particularly important because it comes a day after we got pmi data for the eurozone.hen you look at the numbers for germany, it was clear the chronic downturn did seize slightly in the month of december. the contraction for the suctionth ixth month running. it highlights the outlook for the german when at a time when we also see the country heading to a snap election in february with the key question here being what is germany going to do in terms of fiscal policy. there are ongoing conversations for the debt brake and that is important because we see a lot of businesses struggling at it stage particularly in the manufacturing sector. what is the government going to do to support them? once again, the data we obtained is highlighting once again this is not a good outlook for the business industry in germany. let's see what will happen there what the officials are going to do in the medium term. in the meantime, however, we did speak arlier this morning with monica scnitzer. she said this is not the fault of the government however. >> it is important the companies get

we've seen pmis start to go up. and we've seen improvement in investor sentiment towards for companies for the broadening out of the trade. we've seen upward revisions in earnings, earnings growth for the next year. so i think all in all, this is going to be a very interesting space, the reshoring beneficiaries. they'll benefit from fiscal spending, from deregulation, and possibly even exemptions to some of the more adverse policies that everybody's talking about. charles: so the other things that you wrote about, i find it interesting with respect to investing in u.s. stocks. you say as do you that, you want less exposure to wage growth, less exposure to the strong dollar, more exposure to higher long-term yields. how do you find that? how do you narrow that down? what does it look like? >> i think for long-term yields, we would like exposure to utilities. that's one. and insurance, financials, so those kind of companies. we would like to see companies who have less exposure, about 60% of the s&p has exposure to or

. >>> today's flash pmi data painting a bit of a mixed picture. services hit a three-year high and on the back of last year's hotter than inflation data. it is all a sign the fed cut rates too soon and too quickly and could be forced to raise them next year. joining from apollo global management. it is great to you have. we love your morning notes. this is one of them. but this is a view a few people hold out of consensus right now. but how quickly do you think they might be forced to pivot? >> i think this is an important discussion. it you look at gdp, it was 2.8 and gdp in the fourth quarter will be 3.3. that is all wedget office estimatef 2%, meaning the economy is still growing very strong. likewise, as you just highlighted, inflation last week, cpi 3.3%. and a number of other measures of inflation, the sticky cpi and the cleveland fit median cpi, they are all in the range between 3% and 4%. and why is this important? because they began to raise rates in march of '22 and we still get good current economic data and policies coming on immigrati

chinese manufacturing pmi did slow to 50.1 in december.rowly outside contraction territory, but below expectations. service sector expectations grew to 52.2 with the country citing growth in telecom and certain sectors. >>> and coming up on the show, play time may just be getting started at the company next. de policy you no longer need? nowe you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $10

we have the deteriorating pmis, especially for france and also germany, that could make them think ifhat 50-basis point rate cut should possibly be the next step. looking at what we get today is the rate cut and new round of staff projection which might be of interest. the ecb is set to downgrade the economic growth protection this year and next year and potentially the year beyond. we are getting for the first time a rating on growth, economic growth and inflation for 2027. so just to give us an idea of what they really think about the dynamics unfolding across the euro area and we might get a slight downward revision for inflation as well. of course, a big topic and el vant in the room is france and what happens there next and what they think the tariffs imposed by the trump administration might actually mean for inflation as well here in the euro area. uncertainty and ecb in these uncertain environments tends to err on the side of caution than to step out and say 50 basis points. that's not there the mode of how they operate. >> i guess we'll see whether christine lagarde will have

the pmi data we're looking at throws a little bit on that. i'm not overly concerned about the consumer at this point. lots of tailwinds there in our view, but under the surface we need to see the earnings growth traction kick in to play to this broadening thesis which so much of next year is already being priced around. >> yeah. >> i think 2024 was supposed to be a broadening thesis and it didn't happen that way, and i would just be sure folks understand that i'm very sympathetic to the 493 need to catch up, but where they can catch up is in the amount of real dollars the large seven companies have spent in r&d and capital which gives them much more pricing flexibility and much more optionality versus the other 493 and oh, by the way, the seven are still going to grow double the rate of the other 493, even though the rate of change of -- on a year-over-year basis inflects positive for the others. i think it's going to come down to the companies, mike, and the large ones have built flexibility in their business and the small ones that will win

indeed, we had chicago pmi this morning at 9:45. 28 months, the last 28 months, we have only had one reading above 50 that was november of last year. not only was today's reading weak and under 50, it was under 40. weakest since september of this year. now, consider this. normally, when we see very weak data, we see a differentiation on the coupon curve from the shortest coupon at two-year to the longest at 30-year. as you look at the charts, there's virtually no difference. we're significantly lower in yield, higher in price all along the curve. as a matter of fact, if you look at the twos/tens spread, it's hardly moved from last friday, hovering at 30 basis points, virtually the steepest going all the way back to mid-2022. now, technically, many traders always are looking for clues as to when they can lean against these higher rates and longer maturities. well, the thirty-year bond delivered. if you look at a chart year to date, what you should notice is that friday's close was a whisker under 4.82. if you look at the end of april

higher and not coming down as quickly because the data, especially from a sequential standpoint with the pmi. except for prices paid which was lowered and that is a good thing even though some metrics were below 50. maybe the most important issue is, how do we calibrate with the rates around the globe? here's the tenure versus the eu tenure. any kind of close above the april close of 218 basis points will be the widest in five years and today, we had 219 even though we slipped a bit as the euros closed. you want to pay attention to the 218, 219 level. why does it matter? capital flow and potential buyers in u.s. treasury in the long data part of the curve may of course be a clue as to what demand may change as the spread differential hits even lighter. tyler, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much on bonds. >>> holidays are here and it is the season of giving. and we have the gift of three favorite stocks next. three stock lunchtime. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call cove

after we had the data out at 8:15 as expected in terms of adp, we see very weak service sector ism pmi. that really changed everything and put a thruster on the back of the buying that pushed yields down. as you can see on that chart, they are near the lows of the session. if we cover two days, some important distinctions here. if you look at the two-year, it has an outside day. it has a higher high yield than yesterday and lower low yield. the longer maturities do not. why do i bring that up? it may imply a trend change. there's little doubt what the trend has been. yields moving lower. let's open up a chart up and put our 10s on the same chart as boone for the year. what you will see is that they are unchanged on the year. near the lowest yields of the year. they closed last year at 203. they closed today at 206. contrast that with the 1 1/2 month low that we are hovering near in our 10s, which settle at 388 at the end of last year. we are still up 30 basis points. we want to continue to monitor all of that as it affects not only capital flow but ultimately it may really showcase the

however, at the same time we've got all, you know, the pmi was a lot weaker.here is -- things are not quite as rosy under the hood, and a point i've made for a while now is a lot of the strength we're seeing is government spending. so it's the either literally hiring government workers, pumping out money, the inflation reduction act has been sort of holding manufacturing up for those sort of crony sectors when the rest of manufacturing's been hurting. and so if that collides into doge, like if there's actually going to be some at least leveling off of spending in washington, then that's then going to go into how the fed looks at what's next for the economy. charles: right. >> i think that a lot is riding on tomorrow whether jerome powell starts, you know, either does a pause or at least slows down the rate of cuts. charles: peter, you are pumped about doge, right? at least your posts have been. and what intrigued me is you put out there what they're going to uncover is going to be mind-blowing corruption. give us an example. >> that is -- so we talk about how

i knew why so you'll have to pay for that in school, the european pmi as well, to visit with the cfo and well plus championship. here in the california has declared that states of emergency over an outbreak of badly around 61 cases of being the quoted in the us issue. mold at hoff of them in california, not most of the miles, but the 1st case of a severe illness has been recorded in the states of louisiana. rentals has moved from los angeles. governor gavin newsome has declared a state of emergency here in california in order to better manage an outbreak of bird flew among cattle, hurts in the farming areas of the state of california. now this announcement comes after the 1st confirmed case of a person becoming seriously ill. with a variety of the blue bird flu, that patient is being treated in louisiana. it is believed that he or she were not given a lot of details about the patient, but with is believe that they are, were infected with the variety of the virus. that is carry by wild birds. so this would make it different from the variety that is circulating among dairy herds in cal

the pmi fell from 52 to 56 in october. finally, factory orders were up marginally, up 2/10 in october. what is this telling us, let's dive deeper with my next guest saying a rebound in payrolls is one of the reasons the fed won't cut rates later this month. joining me now is drew mattis. at met life. and steve liesman is here as well. welcome to you both. drew, let me kick off with you. sounds like your expectation is pretty high for the reading we might get for payrolls friday. >> i think there's going to be a weather-related rebound. it's not rocket science. you had a big decline because of the hurricane, and you should expect to see those people going back to work once the hurricane passed and they were able to kind of get their lives sorted out. they could return to work. thatst is a pretty simple equation. it suggests decent payrolls, and sticky inflation to the up side. that should be a combination i think for the fed to stay on hold in december. >> drew, why do you think it is that we keep hearing from officials say

it really speaks to the composite pmi's we got yesterday that outperformed in the u.s.n: s&p global services, big upside surprise coming into the fed meeting. -- coming into the fed meeting. at the moment we are down to about 105. euro-dollar down by .2%. german business confidence just not great. lisa: a really difficult reason to push against the consensus. where lc going to go? -- where else are you going to go? europe where you cannot see government hold together longer for a few days? japan where they are talking about hiking rates and you have this renewed weakness in the yen? what is the alternative? that is why we are watching gold. even that has not necessarily performed. embrace the bubble or go home. jonathan: the alternative is not the canadian dollar. we will talk about canada later. we give canada such a hard time on this program. lisa: we? let's not throw all of us under the bus. some of us are defenders of canada. you can be bearish but canada -- canadians are nice. jonathan: we thrive together, survived together, drowned together. we are a team. sentime

monday, s&p global pmi.wednesday, a federal rate decision followed by a chair powell news conference. thursday, jobless claims and rate decisions for the bank of england in japan. friday, core pce and university of michigan sentiment. rick rieder was saying something that i found interesting about how you get income now from stocks more reliably potentially at the long end of the yield curve. does that destroy the idea of 60-40? rick: when you think about what it was when the long end of the yield curve was ballast in the portfolio was giving hedging potential and it worked for years when inflation was coming down in the 80's and 90's. today is different. if you say i own equities, what would i do with my equity portfolio? i believe equities is where you compound growth and particularly today. the ability to compound growth is extraordinary and a way to stay in the equities. compound growth is a spectacular year and when you go to 2025 you are still throwing off 18% r.o.e.. and then i take my income and say

s&p global pmis for the december and these are preliminaries and they're better than expected.8.3 on manufacturing. that's the one that isn't better. sequentially lower. sixth consecutive read under 50. the weakest since september, and here's the reason rates are moving up. the service sector is booming. 58.5. that's the highest number of the year and if you look at the composite, 56.6. that is the best since march of '22, and definitely well above the 54.9 in theerer rear-view mirror. it's about services and rates now. while we're hovering at 4.39, we see the matureries are also moving up and that's down a couple of basis points, and we want to paint -- excuse me. almost up to 4.24% getting very close to unchanged. remember, 4.40% is the recent high. we want the pay very close attention to that level, and do keep tune to this channel because "squawk on the street" will return after a very short break. weathertech presents. ♪ deck the halls with gifts so happy ♪ ♪ fa la la la la, la la la la ♪ ♪ made right here so nothing's crappy ♪ ♪ fa la la la la, la la la la ♪ ♪ laser-measu

put it together, retail sales, pmi, jobless claims and the data we got.kathy: the economy is strong. we are ending the year with growth somewhere close to 3% annualized for gdp. that momentum, a large part will continue into the new year. we just went to the consumer numbers and they are solid and show that consumers have the wherewithal to spend. and that will drive consumer spending most gains in the equity market over the past two years and home prices being up over a 50% since the pandemic, that turbocharge his things. on the inflation front, these are very good readings. i think is somewhat surprising coming on the heels of what people thought was maybe a less dovish fed reaction function on wednesday. but these are great numbers and better than some feared. what does the fed do with all of this? i still think they pause early next year but i think there are disinflationary forces here. what we don't know is what happens on the policy front. jonathan: i would love your thoughts on an issue raised since sherman powell spoke and you can see it playing

on monday, s&p global pmi's.ision and the statement of academic projections. coming up tonight on television, peer-to-peer compensations with david rubenstein, he sat down with carla hayden, a librarian of congress and it is really interesting to see you book end the old technology of reading and books and some of the new technologies in some of your recent conversations. i want to start with how you framed this conversation and what the librarian had to say. david r.: the librarian of congress was appointed by the president of the united states. she was appointed by president obama and confirmed by the senate. she is actually unusual in that she is a librarian. thereof have been 14 librarians of congress and she is the first librarian, the first woman and first african-american. she has served 22 years of the cheese -- chief librarian of baltimore and another year -- few years in chicago. she is making it available and open not to just scholars but to every citizen who wants to use the facilities. she is transfo

there is a much larger risk to the downside that has been highlighted in the pmi reports and where youave manufacturing week spilling over. services have been driving inflation within the euro zone. that is why there is a downside risk. i still would not relent 50 basis points as a tail risk. i think we should get 50 basis points in the swiss national bank this week as well, but i will tell you that the major downside risk clearly is in europe right now when it comes rises. >> and that would be 125 basis points of cuts if that were to transpire. right now, let's check in on what is going on outside of just focus on markets. yahaira: for the first time in more than 50 years, israeli ground forces of rusted syria. israel's foreign minister said they struck at chemical weapons missile storage facility, calling in preventative measure. with assad's government now toppled, benjamin netanyahu says this may help advance a deal to release the hostages held in gaza. meanwhile, the incoming u.s. administration's potential move to raise tariffs on trading partners can increase risk in financial m