powell: ok. so today i'm here to talk about decisions and also discussions about decisions that haven't been made. so we're talking about the latter thing, discussions. i can't get ahead of where decisions are. the committee -- what we're looking to do is create a whole plan that will bring us to our goal, our longer-run goal, which is a balance sheet no larger than it needs to be for us to efficiently conduct monetary policy. it doesn't put our goals at risk. there are a lot of pieces to that and we have learned over time when making these plans, like the original plan, it's good to take your time and let the best ideas rise to the top and stand the test of time and argument and move when you are comfortable with what you've got and you can communicate clearly. i don't want to get ahead of that process today. so we have discussed -- there are a number of pieces to that puzzle. there are several different pieces to them and i'm pleased with the progress whenever we have made. and the piece you me

powell throw in the stock's 3.1% yield.asuries going down, and interest rate, and its fabulous balance sheet and this is exactly the kind of stock you want to own if you're concerned about a slowing economy. after today's terrific jobs number, well, i don't know probably be less concerned, but you could at least understand why if you're jay powell, you say uh-oh, p&g next up, well, another uh-oh i think merck can repeat its 8% gain going forward why? because its main competitor, bristol myers. just shelled out $74 million to by celgene, and they wouldn't have done something so radical if merck weren't winning head to head trials against them yut cetruda is taking names. you'll hear it's got a rock solid balance sheet, and like proctor & gamble, it's a fabulous slowdown stock. you have my blessing to buy this in weakness even though we have the powell pow rally mcdonald's up in the fourth quarter. i'm loving it. i believe mcdonald's is about to become a terrific technology company now that they can pick and choose what works

chair powell: yes.y federal reserve president before the meeting and we discussed the issues. i certainly know what people support and what they want. the proposal that gets made is thatally want attracts generally one that -- generally one that attracts the majority. david: if you call a member and you say, this is what i think, do you try to lobby them or do not try to do that? chair powell: i really do not. rights of each individual participant to express the view and put it on the record and explain it. i see nothing of value. -- nothing but value in that. it is not a question of lobbying. it would be for me to actually lobby someone if we were going to adapt the proposal. a phd inu have economics, one from princeton, and one from yale. chair powell: actually harbored. -- harvard. correct, m.i.t., and to janet had hers from yell. you have a law degree from georgetown. but you do not practice law. is there a disadvantage than not having a phd and is there a bandage to having a private equity backgrou

powell doesn't believe issuance is the market turbulence >> i do. i think people in the market think that's the case, and they have been very loud in the past few weeks, tightening, rules coming to an end economically, powell doesn't know what he's doing and so on. i have been supporting what they have been doing and what he has been doing for a long time and i think it turned out to be the appropriate thing. i don't think it has that much influence on the market. and i think they should be reducing the balance sheet they should have started earlier than that. and i think that's even more important than whether there's a rate increase in the fed funds rate in march instead of april or september instead of june or whatever >> so if it is more important, why isn't it having impact on tu turbulence in the market >> that's the whole point. i think qe 1, 2, 3 had very little value other than monetizing the debt of the country. and that's just not a good thing to do. we don't need -- we didn't need 4.4 trillion, and i don't even think we need 1 trillion s

shery ahn in new york also watching jay powell. we saw it turned to the negative, if we were guessing about what was driving the action across the broader market , especially, s&p 500 malacca highs of the session, turning negative across the board here. normalizing the balance sheet very much in the part of the conversation, that seem to be one particular moment when markets were particularly negative. prior to that we saw retailers very much in focus. we will talk more about that coming up. to theleading the way downside on great concerns about what was going on in a christmas period. we are seeing energy as a direct across the markets as well. we are seeing a number of factors for both the folks watching the fundamentals of individual stock stories and also the broader conversation with jay powell, concerns about where yields go. shery: very interesting to hear chairman powell's remarks. really reiterating the cautious optimism that he said last week. he is talking about concerns about global growth, although he says he sees anot

chairman powell: no. >> dr. bernanke, you worked under two presidents, president bush and president obama, can we run this relationship between the relationship between the fed chair and the political system. how did your reaction with those presidents work? when a relationship works well, what happens? dr. bernanke: i had a very good relationship with president bush who initially appointed me and i worked for him in the white house and with president obama, who reappointed me. both of them were respectful of the fed's independence on short-term interest rate decisions. on a few occasions, president obama riley commented he had been criticized -- wryly commented he had been criticized abroad for fed decisions. i had a good relationship with both of them and i think it worked well that the federal reserve is, of course, it's goals are set by congress. it is accountable to congress. the fed has become more and more transparent. i want to congratulate jay on adding four press conferences a year. the fed has to be a

it's one of the things powell would like to get away from. what's that old pacino movie they keep bringing him back in it was not a good movie. "godfather 3." keep pulling him back in i think powell wants to get away from this idea, focusing on the main street economy. >> it's in the wrong -- >> reporter: the market keeps saying what about us >> he's in the wrong job then. >> let's break away from talking so micro focused on the fed and acknowledge, again, a 4% move from the nasdaq is stunning. you just don't see moves like that very often for a space that's been really beaten up josh suggested some of these stocks are not great moves >> i disagree. >> find me a semiconductor that's broken. >> there's no debate if i'm wrong, i will lose money. the next 50 handles are higher today i would be more surprised if we were closed only up 300 versus 1,000 >> it's encouraging to see the cyclicals doing better we've seen utilities and stables and reits be the leader. the appropriate reaction in my view so it's technology. look at industrials. >> are yo

although jay powell did. about ken in georgia >> caller: hi, thank you for your continued great insights. >> i sure try. i try to get as much right as i can. >> caller: several companies recently preannounced their earnings, and caught investors by surprise, and it was not pretty what could be the reasons for the preannouncing? >> well, a lot of it i think with the preannouncement we got for nvidia is because they misjudged their graphical user cards. they said they thought it was going to be a -- an inventory issue because of crip toid, but the gaming slowed down too there was some degradation in the data center. amd did not see that, but they have a much smaller business apple what can i say they say january is better which is unusual from december by the way, i think you're up 17 points if you had watched tim cook when he told us that apple was actually doing well? maybe the 17 points don't mean anything to you. i kind of like it. >>> all right, the strength of the green back is having an impact on u.s. co

never have been. >> de shawn powell makes his hate tread well known.tective custody inmates are segregated. for powell who is jail on 14 felony charges including assault and robbery to which he has pled not guilty, conflicts are common. so much so, jail officials have difficulty housing him. >> because he's been in so many fights, it's hard to keep shuffling around and finding a spot where he can be in a dorm and have the same privileges as guys got in the dorm. it's kind of hard to find him a spot so he ends up mostly in single cells because it's easier to deal with his behavior that way. >> have a reputation i first got here, i took initiative, beat up people, controlling floors, running floors, every time i've came back it gets worse and worse. >> he says his history of prior convictions all stems from a drive to be looked up and feared by his peers. >> i have not been that person. but no matter how much i change people still accept me as the same person. >> he hopes good behavior could warrant an early release to general population. but that will b

powell, larry.one for you, delegation to china next week, progress being made on a deal, can we infer that? >> well, of course let's see how they do. i know the president is cautiously optimistic. he had another talk with president xi of china. these are all good signs. we have a deputy delegation flying over this weekend. they will be there all next week as we said. they will look at commodities, agricultural, industrial goods. we would like frankly to see a regime of zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and an end to all the state-run subsidies. these are central planning policies that are not working. the chinese economy is not in good shape, crucially, crucially, we have got to see a change in chinese law regarding the theft of intellectual property, regarding ownership where american companies must be permitted to own their companies, and so that would end the forced transfer of technology. and we also want to see a shift in this whole cyberspace, cyber hacking. it is becoming very commonplac

jay powell sounding friendly. edward lawrence with ongoing talk to stop a government shut down dragging much longer. good luck with that. hey, ed. reporter: lawmakers are here. a stunning number out of the jobs report. 312,000 jobs created in december, blowing away estimates of 177,000. the largest increase in health care. 50,000 jobs created in health care. that is record pace, as far as we kept records a record number increase. put us on pace for creating 254,000 jobs over the past three months. that totals 2.6 million jobs added for entire 2018 calendar year. partly because of tax cuts. white house quickly taking credit for this. some economic advisors believe the fed is moving too fast with the rate hikes. still they say the market needs to take a breath. >> they are realizing their mandate. their mandate is full or strong employment, with low, stable, domestic prices. that is precisely what we're seeing. that is just what we want, just what we want and they're carrying their freight with improved productivity

yellen,ernanke, janet jay powell, thank you so much. [applause] vonnie: we have been listening to federal reserve chairman jerome powell along with janet yellen and ben bernanke live from the american economic association meeting in atlanta. it back in the markets. the nasdaq up 3.6%. we had a rally after the jobs report, we are seeing a steep rally. the s&p 500 up 2.9%. chairman powell careful to say that data doesn't raise concerns about too high inflation and also mentioned the fed guide is listening sensitively to any message markets are sending and markets are pricing in downside risk. he talked about the balance sheet runoff. >> i am beginning to think today is christmas from the risk ask at -- asset point of view. the chinese kicked everything rallyrlier on, big risk after that and we got the payroll data and that put it on a little bit more of a boost and the isn data and powell saying we are listening, we are going to be flexible and by the way, the balance sheet runoff is not on autopilot. i think today from a risk asset point

it is not just powell. you had china put 83 billion into the system of debt in the last couple weeks. draghi in europe, in the last day came out of nowhere said, if we need to we'll do more printing of money, qe as they said and the markets have been loving it for 10 years. i must tell you, i want off my bearish stance january 4th. i've only seen one bad day. looks like we're getting going here. even some bad earnings reports, for me apple was a bad earnings report and bad guidance is being bought up right now. that tells you everything you need to know about the market at this second. charles: is there something inherently wrong with that, david, in your mind? because we have to live with central banks. i'm not a big fan of central banks either. they are with us. they didn't do what we said they would do. were never foesed to have recessions or have a great recession again. that would smooth it out of the federal reserve act of 1913. it never happened. they're here. whatever their foal, protect the ultrawe

no matter what, jay powell not concern this. -- jay powell is not going to concern this.on the brink of some kind of we rating in the market when you have a shorter end of the curve inverting? the market is increasingly concerned about a recession in late 2019, and that is the impetus for a cut. that is what needs to concern the fed, the market is increasingly pricing in a recession. you have a scenario where every retail investor and technician hates this market and every strategist likes it, because the normal indicators of recession are not flashing. but you also have this confidence issue where the markets do not trust the economic data or the central bank, or fiscal policymakers. are looking out and not being pushed by inflation and you are close to the zero bound, it is prudent in our view to just take a pause, see how things go, and look, if we wake up in six months and everything is fine, get back on the horse. if not, you have not exacerbated going to far. alix: steve chiavarone, you will be sticking with us. livext, we will have coverage of fed chair jay powell,

so even though, even though the president has been so critical of powell, powell actually is doing things i think more in line with what the president wants than, you know, some phd economist might otherwise do jo charles: hadley, four fed officials speak out today. five tomorrow. eight or nine in the next 24 hours or whatever. i guess the problem for a lot of market watchers, jay bullard, we're at a good level. we don't need to rush and put them higher. bostick, not a voting member. maybe one more rate hike. we'll see. charles evans, said we need three more hikes. he didn't give a date. that sent the market down. rosengren, we'll take a wait-and-see approach. this course of different opinions and ideas the market is having a tough time grappling with this are we hearing too much from too many fed officials? >> i think so. it is understandable why fed officials want to speak out, why media wants to cover it, why market watchers pay attention to their every word. ultimately the markets, minutes, votes, tell us much more. when we hear from the fed chairman this week that will tell us more i

jay powell could put that on for some time.ina deal could be the catalyst for a significant rally across most emerging markets. that is what we started to see friday. we saw the moves with turkey, the south african rand, emerging em countries. a lot of it needs to do with optimism how these talks will play out in a couple of weeks. he will be good news for em -- it will be good news with em. haidi: thank you for joining us. lots of things playing into the space of e.m. including oil prices. we have this update across the bloomberg terminal, goldman sachs cutting its 2019 oil forecast. prices are still undervalued at the moment, goldman cutting its forecast to $62 versus $70 a barrel previously. forecasting prices at $55 a barrel, down from $54 previously. it has been a great start for the year when it comes to the oil patch of brent surging to best, gaining almost 10% after the jobs report and dovish comments for the fed as well as of course saudi arabia, opec looking like they are making good on the opec less decision reached

y and powell were heading to doctors appointments at the same place. walter reed national military medical center. >> in fact, he wasar two behind me as we went through the gate. >> reporter: anthony says he others. inue to serve >> a lot of things are about just giving of yourself, trying ks out. other f i mean, life is short. >> reporter: he is such a great guy. now, anthony maggert says retired general colin powell offered h money after he changed the tire but anthony would not accept it. he says heust enjoys helping people. shomari stone, news 4. >> is that incredible or what? >> what a great story. but geral powell, if you get another flat tire on 495, call aaa, would you? that's dangerous. >> yes, it is. that's we what did was so much more special. those tw bet that's not the end of that story. we have to keep an eye on that. >> we do. >>> coconut shrimp, lasagna and all -- the dinner served at the spring hills mt. vnon senior assistant living facility. the residents wanted do something nice for their neighbors struggling through the shutdown. >>

that's what they think powell is now i guess. let's get to key take aways that powell said today here in atlanta. one, flexible on rates two, inflation is muted which allows him to be flexible on rates. three, the balance sheet is up for discussion in a way he hasn't perhaps said before as melissa said, very correctly there, maybe the most important thing was he said the fed can be patient. >> with the muted inflation readings that we have seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves. but we are always prepared to shift the stance of policy and shift significantly if necessary in order to promote the statutory goals of maximum employment and stable prices >> of course, interesting to hear a dovish fed chairman on a day when jobs were 312,000 -- almost double the expectation. let's take one more look at those jobs reports, because we can andshould. very strong numbers. especially those revisions plus 58,000. unemployment went up for all the right reasons because people came back into the workforce

jay powell says he can be flexible.laims president trump he has every right to declare an emergency to fund his border wall. coming up in about 20 minutes, our exclusive interview with xiaomi ceo. started with get how markets closed. pretty. -- the markets resilient despite slowdowns in the retail sector and not to mention the partial government shutdown in the u.s., now on its 20th day. we sow the -- we saw the s&p 500 higher. not much strength and utilities and other sectors, but we saw some weakness coming from the retail sector during macy's with disappointing earnings and dragging down coals and target as well. kohl's andble's -- target as well. we have some more positive sentiment coming out for the u.s.-china trade talks and not to mention the fact that chairman powell talked about being more flexible. that did not go down well with the markets. we did see a brief decline in u.s. stocks. when it comes to be set up in asia, we are seeing potential after and [indiscernible] four-day gain. we are waiting from data f

react to avestors dovish jay powell.es the word flexibility and listening carefully. ♪ fully. ♪ ♪ 2:30 in tokyo this afternoon. this is a live shot of the emperor's palace, a beautiful site. shinzo on the, can he really deliver a sales tax hike this year? that's the question. dollar-yen, the dollar is on the move. that is one of the challenges, whether he can do something on the retail sales side. but let's talk about the market moves. keep an eye on the uber, it is the strongest in two months. policy, shrugs off the the biggest rrr we've seen in 2018. says to me -- this that they are shrugging off the possibility of rate cuts. our guest says you could get rate cuts this year. it's the sharpest bounce we have seen in the currency. 6.7 could be attained on the currency, so it will be interesting to see how the china trade talks play out. good morning. >> good morning. you have some calling for more cuts of 100, 150 basis points, but you could say the yuan is shrugging off with the pboc has done. on the other hand, it has

powell gives the markets what it once -- will powell give the markets what it owwants?omberg. ♪ caroline: a quick check of the business flash headlines. shares of ge are climbing in after-hours trading follow a bid to buy all of general electric's jet leasing business. meanwhile, hackers have published cell phone numbers and of members ofta nearly every german political party. this breach also affected angela merkel herself. is the biggest data dump of its kind. there's no evidence pointing to russia. that is your business flash update. joe? joe: powell taking cues from the market. he stressed the central bank will listen to messages the markets are sending after shaking investor confidence last month. michael mckee asked the top economic adviser under president obama when he made of german powell's remarks earlier today? >> i think he accomplished what he needed to accomplish. i'm not sure why people felt they needed to hear him state the obvious, which is that the fed is aware of what is going on in markets. bed low-inflation gives them more flexibility and they are n

jerome powell in atlanta. comment in powell in speaking with chairman bernanke and chairman yellen. 10:00 and lawrence kudlow in the 9:00 hour. stay with us. this is "bloomberg." ♪ viviana: let's get the bloomberg business flash. they largest pharmaceutical deal will be a big payday for bankers. bristol-myers squibb agreeing to pay $74 billion for should celgene. according to lead analysts, they will share much as $85 million in celgene. citigroup could split as much as $110 million. for the third straight year, mercedes-benz is the top luxury car brand in the u.s., selling 316,000 cars and suvs, it beats bmw by fewer than 5000 vehicles. toyota was third, audi was forth after posting its first drop since 2009. the european union will begin to search for candidates to replace peter paris. euro area finance ministers will pick the new board number -- member next month. tom: thank you so much. let us listen to a newly minted speaker pelosi. >> we are not doing a wall. does anybody have any doubt we're not doing a wall? days, dayentful two three will be just as eventful. kevin cirilli i

days later what jerome powell was saying. it is about the narrative coming out of the fed. what is your narrative, fed, given what larry kudlow said. you're meeting dual mandate. the markets could have given that to say no more rate hikes until next year. i'm not sure odds of a rate cut. fed funds future slice of that market. ashley: let's listen hear what mr. powell has to say. >> we've seen pessimism in economic surveys. we saw blockbuster jobs report this morning. you have been optimistic about the economy. is that changing? what is your outlook for the

they may powell caved.otentially no more rate hikes and even more stimulus pulling back balance sheet runoff. liz: greg, 10 seconds, 25,000, friday is the jobs report. what do you think? [closing bell rings] >> this economy is a lot stronger than powell made it about out to be when he did a 180 on rates. liz: agreed. dow is 25,000, just a couple pennies that will do it for us. "after the bell" and lots of earnings. connell: huge hour ahead with stocks soaring. fed promised to leave interest rates unchanged and patience. we love patience. the dow ending the day up by 437, almost 438 points as we settle in here above the 25,000 mark which is a big ol' round number for you. melissa: all right. connell: s&p, nasdaq closing in positive territory first time in three days. nasdaq up 2.2%. i'm connell mcshane. melissa: we'll take it. i'm melissa francis. this is "after the bell." more on the big market movers but first here is what is new this hour.

chair powell: let me talk about the balance sheet. some years ago, we decided that rate policy was going to be the active policy tool and the balance sheet would be allowed to shrink gradually and predictably in the background. and it was supposed to be about as interesting as watching paint dry in janet's famous locution. has division of labor served us well. we think it has served in the economy well. beginning, iat the the first policy normalization plans i was involved in in 2014, we said that we would be prepared to adjust our normalization plans as appropriate to achieve our goals. if we ever came to the conclusion that any aspect of our normalization plans was somehow interfering with our achievement of our statutory goals, we would not hesitate to change it. that would include the balance sheets. i would say today, we are hearing a lot from different groups of people about the role that the balance sheet normalization may be playing in the markets, i think we are of the view that what really happens mechanically when our secur

that would give jay powell a lot more room. i think he would have been speaking about this a little more better and a little more clearly had that been the case. this speechaid, today might be the case for powell to sound a little steadier that he has and not be dumping all over the place from speech to speech. alix: yeah. was it a rookie mistake, with the learning how to do press conferences? thanks very much. don't miss our coverage of fed chair jay powell with david rubenstein. check it out on bloomberg tv and radio. it is going to be the have and have-nots, the retail holiday season, as we head into. great, missed at least one estimate, despite the fact that the company saw full-year earnings on the low end actually revised higher. that was the good part. november, december comp sales rose over what percent, and they boosted sales estimates and earnings estimates for the november and december timeframe, but they are missing one estimate, apparently triggering the stock. david: you wonder if estimates are too high. people th

jay powell says the federal reserve can be patient.ed chairman said he is watching and waiting to see how global risk impacts the domestic economy. they also confirmed the central bank is sticking to its plan to shrugging the balance sheet to a more normal level. submitsindividual level his or her projections four times a year. we did that in december. two rate increases was the median, conditional on a strong outlook for 2019, and outlook that may still happen. we are in a place where we could be patient and flexible, and wait to see what does involve. we are waiting and watching. ministerpan's prime says the whole world wants to avoid a no deal brexit. following meetings between shinzo abe and theresa may, he publicly backed the brexit agreement. lawmakers are debating the deal in the house of commons ahead of a final vote on tuesday. >> a no deal brexit will be avoided, and in fact, that is the whole wish of the whole world. support of theal agreement between the eu and prime minister may. debra: global news, 24 hours a day on air a

but it's all about powell. been the biggest risk to the economy for months now. >> you have highlighted, jeff, as well or better than anybody about the seasonality of the market, all these historical stats which is what you do best about how we're in the midyear of a cycle the third quarter, this and that. >> santa claus. >> whatever you want to call it and it hasn't worked out yet do you think that we're maybe just lagging >> i think we did lag. i think the tax cuts pushed the usual midterm correction later in the year. we saw it come in december usually we see bottoms in october and early summer if we hadn't had a correction, that would be make the third year of the cycle, the preelection year 2019 gains little tougher in that year. i think that helps santa came through the last five days of the year, first two of the new year there were some rough days in there, but overall, the market was up a little bit. percent and change so, you know, it's starting in the positive but we're taking our time we have the fi

do you feel that you put a powell put into the markets?-- i think we'll know in hindsight because the length of this patient period is going to depend entirely on incoming data and its implications for the outlook so it is hard to say, you know, hard to think of what to call it at this point or how to label it so really your second question is how do we think about financial conditions and i would say this we think about a broad range of financial conditions, not just one or two things. it is interest rates, it is risk spreads, currency, it is the stock market, it is credit availability, many rn, many, factors. what matters for financial conditions, when there are changes sustained for a period of time, then they become important for us because they have important macroeconomic indications. so that is how we think about it we don't react to, you know, to most things that happen in the financial markets, but when we see a sustained change in the financial conditions, then that is something that has to play into our thinking. in fact our pol

i think president trump would benefit and i think jay powell would benefit.athan: larry kudlow there earlier. what a meeting between the chairman of the fed and the president of the united states would mean to you. it's not unusual for the president to meet with the fed chair. it's a very peculiar time right now. >> i think it would be a very you haveg because here two of the most important individuals in our government and for them to communicate and exchange ideas and opinions and facts would be very important. yes, the fed should be independent but the fed should really be empathetic with the role of government and its affect on the real economy. i think president trump could learn some things about how the fed operates and the things the fed is looking at. they rely on historic business cycles of the time with zero money policy, things we have today are very distorted so it's a difficult time for the fed because the past is not future and that's one of their big problems is thinking this is a normal cycle and they will do what they did. a really it's diff

take a listen to what jay powell had to say. mr.owell: if we reached a different conclusion, we would not hesitate to make a change. if any aspect of normalization was part of the problem, we would not hesitate to make a change. jonathan: what do you think of that? a total 180 from the chairman. bob: i think it's appropriate. it might be three weeks delayed from what would have been optimal delivery time. but nonetheless, it appears the markets have been well ahead of the fed and the fed is catching up. i think a deceleration in growth is baked in the cake. we were already going to decelerate from passing the peak fiscal impulse in the fourth quarter, early part of the seer, as well as monetary tightening over the last two years, and in december, the fed delivered a more hawkish expectation than the market was assuming and it reinforced the risk off, the elevated volatility for a while, and now it appears they are coming around. jonathan: there is a lot of people very unimpressed with the communication of the chairman of the federal

. >>> the powell plan. did he make the case and plus, special series investing for a lifetime do you need to be thrifty at 60? a check of the markets right now. stocks, they are struggling after the back of fed chair powell speech on the four day winning streak s&p down by 2 and "power lunch" starts right now >>> welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen we begin this hour with powell's plan for the american economy. the fed chair speaking just a short time ago saying the fed is in a place where it can be patient, but are his comments enough to calm the markets steve liesman is here with all the highlights hi, steve. >> fed chair jerome powell stirring the market with comments on the fed. he said the fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, they can be flexible and patient because of low inflation he expects momentum from 2018 to carry over to 2019 the biggest concern with global trade and extensions and extended government shutdown >> several factors were in play at the time including somewhat soft bo

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lauren: investors were reassured as jay powell spoke about a strong economy. futures not doing too much, futures up by 15, nasdaq futures relatively flat. cheryl: oil prices up for the tenth straight day, about to tie the longest winning streak ever. we're up by nearly 1%, $53.11 on the contract. lauren: in europe, stocks opened higher and investors watch a vote on britain's plan to leave the european union, that may fail. cheryl: there's green mostly in asia. nikkei is up nearly 1%. decent day there. cheryl: on the heels of saying iphone sales in china are weak, apple may have some scratching their heads. "fbn: a.m." starts right now. cheryl: it is 5:01 a.m. in new york. it's friday, january 11th. good morning, i' cheryl casone. tracee: i'm tracee carrasco. cheryl: a lot of investors are thinking you're what? tracee: is that the right move, apple. cheryl: good morning, tracee. great to have you here. breaking news this morning, president trump is moving closer now to declaring a national emergency to build a border wall. he toured the border and he spoke excl

fed chair jerome powell just wrapping up. dave rubin stein will join us in a couple minutes at the same time the president just tweeted a few moments ago that he'll be canceling his trip to davos he wrote because of the importance of safety in our nation, i'm kalbing my very important trip to davos for the world economic forum my this warmest regards and apologies. the dow currently is down about 14 points. the ten-year went to 7.2% but is moving back up let's get some instant reaction from steve we're joined by brian reynolds and cnbc contributor, the chief economist, there's quite the discussion going on while this interview was taking place steve, we'll start with you and whether or not jerome powell, is it too strong on say he put his foot in his mouth? let's talk about the fed balance sheet should be substantially smaller than it is right now why is that such a big deal? >> before you say that, my lead would be that he could be flexible and patient on rates. now he says the balance sheet will be substantially smaller. yo

jay powell signals the fed could thwart interest-ratejay powell d thwart interest-rate increases if that changes. as u.s. and chinese officials prepare to meet in beijing for more trade beijing for more trade talks, the pboc takes a further step to secure liquidity and amid slowing economy. beijing for more trade talks, the pboc takes a further step to secure liquidity and amid slowing economy. oil just had its best week since 2016. a warm welcome to the show this sunday morning. ity roared, they rocked, and was two words that did it. listening sensitively. i was jay powell's words. it is utterly alive. s&p 500 up. city says by the depth. they are overweight u.s. stocks. earnings-per-share slowdown is priced in the dollar index. who let the birds out on the dollar? jay powell let the birds out. suisse, affected by the dovish comments. notes are really rocked out. you saw the move by 12 basins points. that beat the 10 year government bond in terms of rally. it was the biggest increase since november 25. now the most overboard since 2008. the speed of her -- of retracement was visceral. tr

chairman powell, yahoo! finance. i would just ask about the balance sheet in general, are you surprised at how much of a conversation we're having around the balance sheet and how much talk about the balance sheet from yourself and various fed officials have moved financial markets because putting out a statement, clarifying your view on the balance sheet, you know, somewhat surprising considering it is restating what the fed had said all along was the goal with the balance sheet normalization, not having it be a key part of policy so i would just ask are you surprised by kind of how far that conversation has gotten just in the last six weeks >> you know, i'll quickly go back in 2017, we were in designing the normalization plan, we were concerned at not having two active tools of policy we learned during the taper tantrum frankly that that would be confusing to markets. so what we did is we set up the normalization of the balance sheath in a way that was very transparent so that you could look and know really certain

powell.'s head over to atlanta we will be speaking with the council of economic advisers over do you. >> thanks. you have about 40 minutes here thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> so you had said in the last day or so that there were many companies like apple that could be hurt because of these larry kudlow came out and said there aren't that many companies. are you on different pages here? >> not at all. the fact is it could happen in an interview that there was sort of a second half of a sentence which i really should have added you have to remember to put it in context that the chinese share is only about 1.7% even if chinese profits went to 0 which no one expects they will do that, it would be possible next year we would be revising up earnings estimate >> broadly though, do you see trade tensions do you have an aggressive 3% gdp forecast for the u.s. this year which is high relative to the street do you see these trade tensions from growth this year? >> i think the strong grow

it is time for more negotiation, so a lot is resting on jay powell today. he needs to give markets reassurance. that the fed is taking the situation seriously and care about it. mcconnell has already told everybody that he won't even take up the legislation, so if markets move on that, then markets aren't paying any attention at all. maybe the much more important news that 46% of companies in the s&p have cut fourth-quarter forecasts. this really hurts the e in pe. if you are a bargain hunter, this is your nightmare. mark: one of the things that has happened over the last few days is when apple announced they were revising their outlook, they mentioned about china and the effect. china is affecting other major american companies, as well. they earn a lot of money from that part of the world and the subsidiary markets that go with it. the attention of the negotiators between the u.s. and china when they meet. both sides must realize that the trade war is hurting them equally. it is about time they found a solution. this is no longer about just hurting china

what about powell?> i think he'll say we need two rate hikes, but we need to be data dependent david, that is talking out of both sides of your mouth i think that the bears will beat the eagles, but the eagles are going to beat the bears. let's say i said that, okay? you know what you would say? jim, that's worthless. mester's comments were very similar to what i said about the bears and the eagles >> let's listen to mester's comments and have you react as well >> one or two rate hikes, right, is about where we're seeing the economy now. it depends on how the economy moves forward. frankly, i think that's a good forecast if we got an economy that performed that well, soft land nothing a slowdown towards trend growth, we should be happy with that >> okay. >> i like data i like phone calls i want beth moonie to come on and talk about loan deceleration largest banker in cleveland. where is mester from mester is an academic. she's an adjunct professor at wharton. you know what? i took galbraith, all these g

the questions markets have to ponder is powell just telling them what they want to hear? or has h tly become more dovish? if the data don't confirm the dovish sentiment t fed could be talking about more rate hikes later this year. >>> well let's talk more about the economy, jobs and t markets. joining us tonight brian levitt, a senior investment strategist as open heimer. >> thank you. >> you had a big jobs report and a dovish fed chairman. >> that's right. and the first thi is the jobs report is proof that this is not an economy that's heading into a recession. the concerns about u.s. slowdown were way ov tstated. yeah economy is slowing. we pumped a lot of stimulus in preponderates go up, the economy slows. but this was not a collapsing environment. >> what has theke stock m been telling us then with the big declines we see in october, november and december. >> what the stock market is telling us is that it was concerned about how financiig conditionsened significantly. that was on higher rates and higher prospects for rate hikes from the fed. a stronger dollar, credit

chris, your assessment what we heard from jay powell?> first of all the tone, very comfortable, very calm, always good to see in a fed chair, and yet we still have this split from the markets, right? because the markets are clearly worried something pretty significant is happening, was happening in the late fourth quarter. the fed, more relaxed. you just heard him say the economy is strong. he is concerned about slowing global growth. but even there, you know, he has absolute confidence that the chinese authorities, for example, can turn the chinese economy around. neil: charles: he did mention there have been efforts already. several rounds stimulus. he alluded to the fact they haven't worked and -- >> i would say, they have been stimulating the economy since last february and it has been slowing down steadily. it has not responded yet. they will have to do something new. charles: you mentioned he talked about the split that was discussed. on one hand, economic data, solid, strong, really great, but then the market falls apart in the fo

lauren: the great rate debate, federal reserve chair jay powell speaks today.certainly react. cheryl: taking a look at what investors are watching, it's about the shutdown, it's about trade, after four days of gains futures are negative this morning. dow down 96, s&p 12.5, nasdaq down 36 and a quarter. lauren: after eight days of gains for oil prices, they're down as well, down 23-cents. cheryl: european markets on this thursday, initially they opened in the green. not anymore. ftse, cac, dax, all negative. lauren: i have one green arrow for you it is, the hang seng is up about a fifth of 1%. the rest of asia is lower. cheryl: the richest man in the world filing for divorce. could amazon shareholders be impacted? "fbn: a.m." continues right now. we're approaching 5:30 a.m. in new york. it's thursday, it's january 10th. good morning, i'm cheryl casone. lauren: good morning, i'm lauren simonetti. let's talk about the stock market. this has been a nice start to 2019. the dow is up more than 2% this year and we got comments yesterday from the fed chairman, jay powe

jay powell: we would not hesitate to make a change.f we came to the view that the balance sheet normalization plan or any other aspect was part of the problem, we would not hesitate to make a change. alix: but the fed has stood by its idea that it is not quantitative tightening that is hurting the markets, what the you think? think in a sense -- i that was almost the most important line of what he said, because in the mid december meeting the market was deeply disappointed that the balance sheet remained on automatic. and he has now signaled that they are prepared to stop that and consider other options, if needed. this is the beginning of the move from the fed to stop in the balance sheet tightening. and putting it on hold for an extended period. i think it is encouraging and i think that was the key line, the shift in language from mid-december that was on friday. so i was encouraged by that. david: one of the things you have a focused on is m1 and other money supply and the way it has been treated globally as a percentage of gdp. i