lots of other things going on, not just qe and you're focused on qe. but it highlights the point we need to think about this in a broader, more general equilibrium sense, i think that's very important. a couple of other observations. one, other observation is that this -- this is a case study. it feels very idiosyncratic to me. for example, constructing a sent scenario for a recession today, the federal reserve does this in stress testing every year, last fed stress test and the scenario that generated it, it was motivated by a -- motivated by global downturn european crackup, chinese recession. okay. so if that is the motivation if that's the cause of the next economic recession that we struggle with and the fed -- federal reserve's response is lower interest rates then that would also the key effect would to be affect the value of the dollar and benefit the same regions that are getting hit by the slowdown in global activity. so, i think it depends. the case study's interesting but i'm not sure it translates into other types of economic shocks that r

why do we need the fed to do qe 4? we'll have china doing qe pretty soon. the china story is so bullish for u.s. equities i haven't heard anybody talk about that. >> oh, my goodness, that's a whole different topic. >> for another day. thank you. see you on the other side. >>> coming up a slippery slide for the oil stocks. exxon and chevron posting their worst quarter in more than six years. is it time to ditch them for good? and gopro shares can rally 40% is that too optimistic? we'll debate it here on this desk when we come back. >>> we want to hear your crowd noise. tweet us @halftime report. more "halftime" after this. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. and it's only on fidelity.com. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a b

the s&p went from 800 to 2100 over the course of qe. the dollar stayed very suppressed during that time. know, learnng we about the exit, then play the exit in europe, one in japan later. alix: we have breaking news for you we want to go to julie hyman at our breaking news desk, looking into news concerning kkr. julie: you have an ipo from first data, which is owned by kkr. the company had been considering an ipo. first-quarter net loss was $112 million. it was trying to boost its ebitda in advance of the public offering. if the biggest that ever by -- it is the biggest bet ever by kkr. the company cost ceo since 2013 has been -- the company's ceo since 2013 has been trying to boost profitability. it has been acquisitive, buying startups, partnering with companies like apple. first data is filing for this ipo. i'm looking at the various headlines coming out. loss last year was $458,000. if doing a place holder amount now of $100 million -- it is doing a placeholder amount now of $100 million. we will get more details on how big this cou

it's very difficult to get a clean measure of qe and the impact on asset prices. when you look at these windows, which would be the nice way of looking at an event, you have to assume some kind of market efficiency. i think what i see and you can look at the ec been this year. what we see a port it's difficult to allow us to see what is the impact but i do see massive teases out there. if you look at the investment in japan or in europe it's entiredly driven by a q kind of thesis. the way you see that is that bad news/good news. i think we see -- this is suggestive of a pretty significant impact on asset prices. and if i can go from there, on that i think where i'm not sure i reach the same conclusion and i'm not sure where the conclusion is. i think it's very difficult to get into the argument of what's the alternative? i don't see a an alternative that would have created something better at this stage. it's difficult to undermine this argument. but to me i think it's maybe another issue of framing the question, which is we take the crisis as given. i mean all of

with the benefit of find site, the first round of qe made sense. the easing since then, really, has not been worthwhile in the fed should have been raising interest rate a little bit all along here. alix: go raise every meeting now? ed: i've almost got in to the point where they cannot do it. me a shouldsked have, could have question. i try to avoid making policy recommendations. out what there policymakers are doing and where they are going next. central bankers are masters of the universe. they think they can control and fix all of our problems. the big problem we have now is that they are starting to lose confidence is now. china, japan, u.s., eurozone. joe: whether anyone is bearish, bullish, indicators like that. we are actually getting to pretty bearish levels. what do you think that's all about? is it just the wins? ed: i think this has been a tough bull market or technicians , dashboards, technical bull indicators. joe: it's just gone up. ed: i hate to use the prettyion, but it's descriptive. these markets have been rigged by the central ba

currently they are doing qe. they are looking to accelerate the qe the summer. i think if they see stress coming into the market because of the greek situation, they will accelerate further. everyone is saying as long as there is some really -- resolution, the ecb will be there. be nearer to a resolution, the bigger the rally. it is a strange market. jonathan: so we say the ecb will mop up the mess, the ecb was in the market buying $60 billion in bonds in april, may, june, it was the worst record on bonds sometimes other things matter. despite the fact that the ecb is in the market, why is everyone safe with the idea that the ecb will buy more bounds -- bonds? >> we have to realize where the dax came from. we have given back to percent -- 10% it looks more like a correction then they start to something more serious. we look at the general path until march look at the bond market, rising bond yields if the qe is working. if bonds are rising by 10 basis points, people will look at that and say that is ok. people are painting a glossy picture not necessarily our vi

we are trading and we see the qe move.ok at individuals and idiosyncratic offense that dominate everything and that is where we should be going. jon: arguably, with the euro-dollar strip out greece and look at treasuries and the german tenure and you do pretty well. does that not just continue? guest: it is possible but i think it is unlikely. the euro has been incredibly resilient. you about stocks doing fantastically well and in bonds the euro was doing well. until we get used to synchronizing markets again, it was this location where you have these huge global event's but i think we will come back to sensibility. we are in the last hurrah of the death throes which increases volatility and then the euro will drop back up in a couple years for now we will be back up. jon: let's move away from the euro-dollar. let's go to the euro stock. i look local in sweden and i see a housing buff and robust gdp growth despite low inflation. guest: it is deflation that will cripple the economy. jon: gdp at -- guest: they are running at

both markets supported by the extraordinary intervention of qe type policies. not got a queue tomorrow and does not appear to be. people will think and look at in different ways. we have disjointed economic progress and look at europe and china and u.s. and a difference. people will have to reflect on that weather than the support of qe or anything else. jonathan: kevin corrigan thank you for joining us. that is it for me. "the pulse" is next with manus cranny inferencing loquat. a route in china. -- manus cranny and francine lacqua. you want to talk about these markets, i am on twitter @ferrotv. best of luck with your day. ♪ francine: shanghai slump. china's benchmark index has its worst drought since 2007 amid concerns of a rally sparked by government intervention being unsustainable. manus: income from managing funds for the wealthy more than doubles. francine: and, drug deals. teva is said to buy a generic drug business for more than $40 million. welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european london headquarters.

that was the last basic timeframe where qe went in place. plunge in the vix you want to be a buyer. the only time before then the last big plunge in the vix where it failed to set up as a bullish statement was back there. march 2011. you had to wait a good year before we climbed back to the position that you're in before. so time is saying if you're in ball market and you get a big vix plunge, it's people saying i have a ton of confidence in what's going on in the market. i want to be a buyer. you want to be a call buyer in the s&p. volatility is cheap, that means options are cheap. i would be a call buyer and play to the upside. >> the sweet spot according to brian's analysis. big gains, do you bike that, mike? >> i do. if you take a look at what's been going on, the market has been tracking sideways, we haven't breached the may highs because of all the international concern, including greece and china and including things like earnings, which seem to be coming up well. if you happen to believe as the options market does that most of that i

>> you remember qe?rles: yeah. >> we moved a trillion and a half dollars into overseas banks through qe. i wouldn't -- you know, they had so much fun with that, they might try once again. charles: which, by the way, we should let the audience know that this money that greece owes right now, this was a banking crisis a few years ago, and it was transferred from the banks to the backs of taxpayers of germany and greece. that 2012 bailout, prior to that you had over -- >> you talk to a lot of french folks and german folks -- charles: right, but they were french and german banks that owed this money, and the intervention maybe wasn't to save greece in the first place. maybe once again, for whatever reason, it was done to save the banks, because guess who's not taking a haircut in all of this? is banks. there's very little exposure to banks, european or american. >> the greek banks have taken a haircut. charles: the greek banks, yeah. everyone else though -- >> and the reality is the first default here is, in

Él fue el qe lo criÓ.l mismo pidiÓ. segÚn las autoridades, martÍnez tiene miedo por su vida. leÓn felipe: gracias luz. ...viajar a washington para testificar frente comitÉ oficial del senado. asumÍan un comunicado de prensa. ya es hora de que aquellos en el poder se unan y se pongan de acuerdo sobre una polÍtica que sea buena para el paÍs y mantenga los americanos a salvo. marÍa leticia: segÚn un comunicado de prensa monseÑor... asegurÓ que no se pueden hacer comunicados de prensa... leola cÁmara _leÓn: la cÁmara de representantes lo que harÁ esta semana... muy probablemente este mismo jueves. marÍa leticia: los conductores que viajan esta maÑana y esta tarde en la autopista seis 80 se encontraron con un monumental atasco, producida por la rotura de la carretera pronto una mÁquina. leÓn: el departamento de policÍa de auckland investiga la fuga. y una versiÓn de la policÍa. aunque se le practicÓrre sucitaciÓn cardiopulmonar el hombre fue declarado muerto al llegar al hospital. marÍa leticia:el mural fue par

they were doing qe. they were going to keep going until september of next year.s about whether they would have to do more. there were system --'s to stomach read -- systemic problems for greece. you don't need the premium. on the other hand, they might be more forecast to buy more. it depends on what happens to growth in europe. manus: you expected to be reasonably constructive question mark its growth but with no deflation. that's the base case. alex: it had been priced into the bond market there was a selloff this year. the next question is when we going to see inflation and the point where the ecb is going to have to start removing a stimulus. i think that is a long way down the road. manus: this runs through the end , no sign of deflation. last week, i looked through the bonds. the bond supply was 36 billion euros. that was the highest in 2015. alex: i think there were 100 billion in redemptions. we actually had net supplies positive. this month's negative. that's one of the reasons for economics looking better. manus: stay with me. there is a lot more to tal

this shows the aversion to quantitative easing or asset purchases now that she is willingly calling qe. the fed does not want to have to go back there. it tells you how scared they were the we were at the break. scarlet: i'm curious what you thought about her delivery and whether she was reassuring on the podium. carl: she did have a popped collar. were going through some sort of trauma i would like to hear her quiet and methodic telling me it's all going to be ok. >> she still wants to be a data-driven fed so she says everything is fine, everything is coming up roses and then people will say the fed is definitely hiking. she doesn't want that. she wants people to think they are probably going, but we are not totally committed, depending on the data. across asdoes come very trustworthy and confident. >> she rests on that self-confidence. thank you for joining us. remember, by the way, we are going to talk with mike out of idaho in just about one hour or don't want to miss that. there is been a lot of fed speakers today and former fed speakers. definitely something to stay tuned for. sc

dowe anticipated we will -- we anticipate we will see more qe and management?at is happening in the bond markets in europe and what is happening with euro-dollar. >> you mentioned whether marion draghi is going to potentially step up qe. i don't think these guys are over andto do anything above what they have already planned to do so far. at the end of the day, let's be realistic. were 120. spreads 120 basis points eight days ago. now they are 155 which i said is pretty much in the price. relation between nominal and real interest rate of rancho and what is happening in the euro-dollar, i would say the class of models would predict the euro-dollar quite ,igher than it currently trades closer to the $1.15 level. i think overall, we have started in deals which will allow us to extend higher pricing in the building of confidence in the eurozone. which has pushed euro-dollar higher. at the same time, if you look at the flipside, he will see too much -- you will see too much was already in the price of the dollar. erik: we have to leave it there. thank you very much

as we see the ecb, policy diversion, they are pretty stuck on qe versus the u.s. talking about how a rate hike this year is quite likely. that is helping the euro go lower. helpingecb, not really lift. small.y that is very divergence may depress the euro to parody -- parity. i do want to talk about the euro pound. highmped to a seven-year after those comments. we heard from the bank of england signaling this policy diversion's with the euro. policymakers say britain could be raising rates sooner than anticipated, moving closer as mark carney mentioned, investors don't see race raising until next year at the earliest. we saw u.k. bonds rise. unchanged, are again, we are talking about this resistance. breaks todayf it later on in trades. back to you. angie: checking other headlines, goldman sachs profit tumbles 50% do so surging legal costs and a falling fixed income trading. without a litigation expenses the bank would have beat estimates by 13%. legal fees rose fivefold as they tried to settle. it may pay as much as $3 billion. citigroup's cost-cutting measures se

i larry hear people long europe because of qe. that is what it is. slower growth is most likely reality. i agree with that. if you say draghi comes up with one mother of a cowbell next stage of qe would that get you to buy european equities? >> yippy-do. more of the same. realistically a couple countries, spain, maybe italy had a couple basis points of growth in the mows recent gdp quarters. everybody based like europe is off to the races. it is basically zero growth. even here in the u.s., imf, fed all reduced their growth forecasts. we look like we're pretty mixed. we're the best house in the bad neighborhood so to speak. we're only growing in low 2% range ourself here. so while that is better than the rest of the world it is by no means dynamic economic growth to drive crazy stock market profits. i would be a little cautious personally. maria: michael, good to talk with you. thanks so much. >> appreciate it. maria: michael cuggino joining us. one of the most interesting things tom wilson just said and what you pointed out in terms of china we can'

the ecb will likely reengage and could even accelerate qe. the opposite is happening here in the united states where the fed is set to raise rates. femae essentially this playing out in global divergence where the dollar will continue to strengthen versus the euro. -- this theme playing out. matt: what about these issues we see overseas in greece and china and iran? are you concerned about any kind of spillover that would affect our growth? annette: there will most likely --very modest and manageable i wanted to go back to the testimony this morning. she was asked about what are those risks and could they change the outlook for fed policy and she said, look, when we met in june and produced are forecast, we knew these risks were out there and we discounted them in our forecast. knowing that, we still thought it would be appropriate to hike rates this year. the fed is discounting this as well. things could evolve differently, but in all likelihood, these are manageable problems. mark: u.s. housing, you believe it is still a bright spot given w

you've seen strong flows into europe on hopes with the announcement of qe. those throws started to recede again. certainly i think people are much more positively disposed to europe now than they have been on average, over the last few years. rightly so. i'm not concerned that may be a consensus view. after all, it was a consensus view to be positive on the u.s. market for the last five years. that was broadly right. the u.s. economy as we discussed is looking reasonably good. profits are close to an all-time high. profit growth is slowing, margins are starting to peek out, we think. we're very close to an interest rate rise. when you tend to get multiple contraction. i think it's just the differences of where we are in the relative cycles and valuation. >> the interest rate cycle will play into that as well in europe. the interest rate differential between the u.s. and euro. >> very much so. it's true both at the short end and on the long end of the curve. we think that u.s. long-term rates will rise versus european long rates. if you look at the correlatio

the introduction of euro qe was a huge deterrent to anybody that in going to effectively get front ofhis trade and short italian bonds or short portuguese bonds. mario draghi had a 60 billion euro bazooka he can fire at any time and he can probably introduce the s&p program or if the country got into trouble the onp program, by more. i don't see it happening. alix: you had a no doubt this morning that was one of the clearest ways a deal could get done. germany would say, we will give you money of greek depositors, you take a haircut. a this has been floated around. you are hearing the idea of a cypriot style haircuts. the way germany would have to sell restructuring, which is ultimately the taxpayers of germany would be footing the bill because it is debt they would have to write off and germany is the largest creditor, you would have to see greeks take some pain with that. not pain in the streets, but pain financially. you have 130 million euros in the greek banking system. and then you can restructure the debt in a way that the imf discussed, a $50 billion restructuring, and you get

the fed wants to have the ability to do something rather than okay, qe 4 or qe 5.on't view the greek thing as the reason why the fed says we better hold off on 25 basis points. if anything it gives them more impetus to get off of zero. which they probably could have done earlier than that. i kbree with your theory. that the fed needs to have another tool in its tool box. but i disagree. i think they're paying attention to events in greece. >>dy say they weren't paying attention? i don't remember hearing that. >> let me rephrase that, then. the timing, i think they will adjust the timing of their rate hike if the greece deal goes sour. >>> coming up, bullish on beer. moody's raises a glass to bud. sending the share price higher. should you follow the crowd or will it give your portfolio a hangover? can a business have a mind? a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? >>> hello, everyone, i'm sue herera with your cnbc news update. t

do you think the reflation father sources of qe will be the dominating force? >> i do. i do. particularly with the u.s. you heard comments out of yellen that you will get a hike in 2015. i do think it offers more opportunity. >> whereabouts would you be putting money in europe in terms of specifics? the last two or three weeks has been very high beat type of improvements is it the going up? >> i do think it's going up. i think interestingly, the energy stocks have been beaten up all year. likely we'll see oil rising by the end of the year. i do actually think that might be a place for opportunity. >> i want to go back to one of your first answers implying that the european union is more reactive than pro active and i can certainly agree with that over the last 12 months. european qe was reactive. is that still a relatively short term relying on this type of policy? or long-term, five years down the line is europe going to significantly come together and grow for the long term? >> i'll be honest when i first recommended that trade to my client i thought we wouldn't have it thr

and qe for the last six, seven years. now we're seeing the dollar strengthen, a commodity bust.rging market currencies are decimated. and they're going to have trouble making their budgetses. >> you're saying we're going to see a taper tantrum-like effect on the emerging markets, but on steroids? >> absolutely. it's starting right now this is a global event that's going to occur over the next 12-18 months. we don't seem to be recognizing that. that is one of the risks that could affect the stock market going forward. the fed likely will tighten. when lehman went under, twas a money market fund that caused the ignited the spark that caused the fire. it wasn't actually lehman. so we've got to look at the derivative effect of the tightening and where the risk is going to come from. >> now you're scaring me, i'm saying what are we doing with my money, rich? >> we're not going to buy emerging market equities right now. we're staying away from emerging market debt. we've got to also look at the fix income environment is where rates could replay low as a result of flight to capital to

asÍ es y muchos vecino s, es estamos joveneÓvenes o simplemente no tenemos bienes, tonceentonces para qe para muchos testamento es a ajeno como palabra. >>> pqorque no tenemos muchas cos cosas. >>> debe ser la prioidad de todo adulto ,segÚn lel abogado . >>> puede ser tan silecnillncillo como escribir tus fedeseos de tus biene bienes en una servillaeta. >>> los requisitos son mayor de 18 aÑos eteniendo fecha, deseos dletallados, ser atestiguados por dos opersonas que no sean hereder herederos, el documento no tiene que ser certificado por una cort corte y e s cvalvalido en todo el pai paÍs y hoy en diÍa se puede hacer por ineternet con un costo por 20 $dÓlares . >>> si uno quiere preparar un te testamento bien y que se conside consideren todos lsos aspectos ,traiga un abogado . >>> dde cqualquier manera es reco recomendable que lel testamento s se renueve cada u5 aÑos y siemrppre destryuaya el viejo . >>> para las personas que no tie tienen bien transmiittira y no sol solo pasar bienes, sino cosas no nostalgicas . >>> hasta puede dictar qnuiÉn se qudaria con lsos a custodia de sus hijos

i think the qe in china than qe in the u.s. at end of the day, the think the feds are going to raise rates in september. i think it's 100%. it's a slam-dunk deal. even though it's only 20% in the cards right now. >> got you, andy thank you for taking the time. post 9, it's all yours. >> thank you very much rick santelli in chicago. coming up on cnbc could adam bain be the next ceo of twitter? "squawk alley" discuss it is after this break. i take these out... ...to put in dr. scholl's active series insoles. they help reduce wear and tear on my legs, becuase they have triple zone protection. ... and reduce shock by 40%. so i feel like i'm ready to take on anything. when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. >>> good morning, it is 8:00 a.m. at twitter headqua

---a veces los padres de familia no saben qÉ marÍa: a veces los padres de familia no saben quÉ hacer la escuela, pero no tiene que ser quedarse en casa solamente, si le interesa a la producciÓn de vÍdeo, el arte o la mÚsica, este programa es una excelente opciÓn. >> les enseÑamos a que los jÓvenes clases de producciÓn de mÚsica, de vÍdeo, fotografÍa y todo lo que hacemos aquÍ. >> my check. >> diseÑas escribir y publicar mÚsica, aquÍ me enseÑan. cruz: lo que hacen durante el verano les puede beneficiar en el futuro. >> durante el verano los jÓvenes han creado mÚsica y han ganado competencias nacionales y tambiÉn han ganado becas para ir a estudiar a la universidad. cruz: se llevarÁ a cabo de lunes a viernes de una a cinco de la tarde y no es requisito vivir en san josÉ para inscribirse. para mÁs informaciÓn llame al telÉfono en pantalla. si vive en la penÍnsula la organizaciÓn estÁ ofreciendo clases de matemÁticas, lectura y ciencia. >> vamos a tener espacio para otros. marÍa: para los niÑos que estÁn en la secundaria tambiÉn el actividades. >> estamos de 12 a las 8:00, damos comida,

the qe fell to a six year low on lower dairy prices and a weaker inflation print in new zealand. it lead to a softening of the aussie dollar. the canadian dollar suffered on the back of an unexpected rate cut. >> the qe central bank will be next to cut rates as early as next week. keep an eye on that. chinese stocks pairing session losses with the tech heavy index closing up just over 1% and the shanghai comp up a third of 1%. meanwhile the asian development bank cut it's full year growth forecast for 2015 and 2016 citing slower than expected growth in developed countries as well as in the domestic my. let's check in on how markets in asia finished the trading session. sri, pretty quite session. they passed the bailout measures which means more austerity which means that the crisis perhaps is nearing an end game. that's what the markets respond to. there's an element of caution because we're not looking at a full resolution of the greek crisis so you're seeing a degree of caution. some risk taking but the gains capped at around 1% if you look at most of the markets. in terms of t

and don't tell me qe. okay?of the day the fundamental constructs of companies in europe are much different right now than what was happening in america in 2009-2010. oh brian, what about etfs? well what are etfs? a roll-up of a bunch of companies. we believe we're heading into an active invest region environment, kind of stock picking, owning select 35 to 40 stocks then portfolios -- i like to call it the peter lynch/warren buffett era of investing like the '80s and '90s when i grew up in the business. if you buy a european etf, you are not buying the companies that matter. you're buying a roll-up of companies and that's where the risk is. >> talk about whether you think greece stays in the euro or gets out and would that change the dine application in a major way? >> from a fundamental perspective ssit is a moot point gaus because it is such a small part of gdp. the stock market is a psychology gain. it is more of perception versus reality. the reality is the fundamental construct of what's happening in greece

robert: japan qe continues well into the second half of 2016.cb policy i think will stay intact probably until september 2016. the commodity currencies you mentioned there, obviously under pressure at the moment. but with oil prices post the iranian deal, under further pressure, industrial metal prices -- iron and copper copper is close to 5.5. i think it is inevitable that the currencies will see easing. probably we have not found the floor yet. guy: we are going to carry on this conversation a bit later on. thanks for mixing in with everything else. bob parker, he is staying with us. angela merkel, she just finished a radio interview. we talked about greek debt sustainability. mr. schaeuble says it is on clear how we will sustain without a haircut. now angela merkel facing princes him of her handling of the crisis. germany still driving austerity debates. yesterday, the founder of hedge fund eclectic up set down with me and somewhat surprisingly you would say said germany will come out on top. >> it reminds me of some of the most magnificent m

they are the on ones that operation of qe 1 qe 2, qe 3. not part of the eros and all the. i use that as an example for me, if you would. if you look at the whole stuff all your work in those countries had the fastest growth and best performance is that with low and cut tax rates. two things matter the level of taxes matters. >> i was at an event where you had a meeting and the democrats, a lot of them would support. do you see any democrat. >> if i can take you back, 1970 and 1980. at that time neither republicans and democrats didn't believe. we had wild off one situations and the -- >> that was hanson. >> that was capital gains and i think there were 90 co-spons and and even regan was step mid on tax cuts to be honest and not i mean carter once you start let me tell you guys who are young once you start with a little tax cut, it worked, oh my god, it worked. it becomes as and jump and cut taxes. this was a congregation of tax cuts with this enormous prosperity of the planet because once this thing starts rolling people, you can't stop it. it's a hard day. the time has co

manus: you perhaps qe to go on for longer or bigger in size?a stupnytska: it depends if we have the greece issue, it might increase the size. otherwise, it could extend beyond september 2016 if inflation is not picking up or recovery is stalling. manus: give me indication of the consequences of that for the currency. currency critically important piece of this discussion. anna stupnytska: yeah, in terms of the euro, the wickedness against the dollar -- weakness against the dollar, help export us and boost inflation to recover. ultimately the commodity price growing and so we might actually see more in terms of qe. manus: as european jobs, remind me in terms of that and propensity to export. we are talking about a rebirth within the eurozone and a lot of people saying the euro is going lower. as an export a group, where do export stand? anna stupnytska: some countries like germany and france and that is the important part of the growth. some countries not as being exporters. you have competition from japan given weakness -- manus: can it rise ag

david: the fact is, china, as liz was just saying has done what we were doing with qe and fed and all this money printing. what they are doing is so much beyond that in terms of communist social control of economic policy. they have the regulator of their stock market now lending money, talk about conflict of interest, to traders to buy stocks that are tanking. i mean, it is just insanity. looks like it is falling apart. doesn't look like people are buying it this time. >> just remember what happened there affects what happens here. and around the globe. and let me just say this, every move that the chinese government is making right now is scaring the crap out of the market and the people there. it will affect it much worse. i can't tell people -- >> let's break this down for a second. so we're not just making salacious comments. david: sure. >> the chinese market -- david: am i making salacious markets? communist chinese by the way. >> very difficult for me or you to invest directly into the chinese market. it is chinese citizens that will take it on the chin. market was up 100%. no

showing that q qe no longer working. >> looking for a huge crash. >> qe is over.eat hike small 25 basis points. listen, you're right if you look at combined but that time stamp, it is not next year. it won't be the year after. bigger question is can we avoid it and still time to avoid -- avoid. >> to get outside of a lot of things. >> i don't like him using the term beginning of the end when you were talking about the pope. >> is that what you're talking about harry? >> now you're concerned about what you said about the pope. >> after -- [inaudible] >> i think you can't keep a bubble going forever. [laughter] >> nobody can keep a bubble going forever that is what government -- [inaudible] looking for this for some time. maybe this is the event that doesn't. but is it built on the idea that we're just all of the global markets and especially built on helium or what? >> yeah, and all of the southern european countries and germany has horrible demographic worse than japan. we saw the japan crisis in 90s simply on dem graphic and germany has even worse iewm most worri

the fed has stopped qe as you know last year.n? stay long? >> believe it or not, we like stocks in europe. actually we see this as a buying opportunity. and the main reason is we're looking at -- you know things -- behind all this the european economy is getting better. you've got qe which just started really from the ecb. you've got a much weaker currency, lower energy prices. now, we all know 2% in europe is a boom. so we're not talking about -- >> that here is a boom. >> well but anyway so we see earnings actually growing double digits in europe and we like stocks there. i think this is a time where the currency hedges because i think the euro is going to go down further. but i think there's better opportunity there is. japan's interesting because companies there are finally returning profits to investors more. you know, with dividends and buybacks. that's a new thing there. so we're positive there. >> okay. all right. larry, thank you. >> thank you. >>> we got a bit of deal news this morning. we've been talking about ace limi

i think the reality is that qe is not the silver bullet. it doesn't fold anything.ome ways that is quite a deflationary factor. it encourages speculation and not real economy activity. guy: when the wage data becoming? when do companies start paying their staff forward? there is a huge gap -- a long and historical story -- the gap between gdp per capita and wage rises. you kind of feel that is the missing piece. bob: i talk about structural themes, very deflationary for the world. debt, technology globalization. with karl marx, they talked about the wealth of the world being united -- the workers are the world are not united. companies can hunt the world for cheap labor. has a result, workers' pricing power is weak. i told 500 times the last five years that we have wage inflation in the u.s. -- what we tend to get is a bit of inflation in certain markets are age groups. that in the aggregate, when the participation rate is at 50/40, how are we going to get sustainable wage inflation? henry ford, back in the day decided that he was going to pay his workers a bit more

with the fed rising rates is you are seeing the potential for down the road, one thing we know about qeit helps to boost the asset prices but is a lot slower with economists bid economists would benefit if they were more effective in china and japan than europe. stephanie: all right. bob talking to us about futures on metal this morning. not much optimism in gold expressed by bob or really anyone else at this point. thank you. we appreciate it. olivia: jeff saying he thinks gold could go down. time now for the top stories. we will start with apple. apple had a big quarter, a huge quarter, by anyone else's standards. it just was not enough for apple investors. shares are trading lower this morning, as much as 6% in the premarket. the company is posting record third-quarter profit. iphone sales rose by 35%. the issue was the sales missed analyst estimates. sticking with tech, shares in yahoo! are falling in the p market this morning. forecast sales in this quarter missed analyst estimates. marissa mayer has been trying to turn the company around investing in mobile features and video sale

it was the end of qe these things can happen.t the rate rise may be premature you can still expect volatility. anna: what might you be buying? what kind of things catch your eye? lothar: the consumer is still driving this economy. banks are still valuable, they are not my favorite, but for a bounceback they may be an interesting investment. banks are my favorite because of the margins with these low interest rates are not interesting enough for banks to be long-term. anna: thank you very much. capital investment management chief investment officer. and take a short break on the program. coming up on "countdown." the saga continues as deutsche bank struggles to recover. we will bring you the full story. ♪ ♪ anna: welcome back to "countdown ." here are teh stories you need to know this morning. the energy crisis has hit the bg group hard. the company said to be acquired by shell has reported a 65% drop in second-quarter profits. net income fell but that still beat analysts estimates. they beat second-quarter estimates before intere

jonathan: another thing that drives equity markets is a weak euro and qe. i look at the 12 month, what is it $.90? what will be the biggest driver of that. chris: maybe we can talk among commodity currencies coming of little later. i think the fed story will come through the next 6-9 months. particularly this year, it is been on the short end. that hasn't even started yet. that will still be seen over the next months. it is very clear that the ecb is going to really manage expectations. money market rates in the euro, and they really want to encourage a weaker euro. a both sides of the lending a very much driving that. jonathan: we at the deck above the other side of the trade, the dollar. the euro situation does that remain the biggest driver of european stocks? it is been the euro in q1 and q2. with a really be about earnings? yogesh: because of a weaker euro, would actually be elevated. as a result, you will see price appreciation. everyone is in agreement with the markets to see dollar strength. we just look at bursting prices and a fair value. the euro

you think about it, once we have a greek resolution then we get back to ecb qe. and remember what they're trying to do over there. they don't want to see the euro rally against the dollar. so if you want to take it back to our market, what did we see this week as far as u.s. corporate earn sngz we saw pepsi report better than expected. we note euro had a big quarter against the dollar. we may see that from some u.s. multinationals, a reversal of some of the stuff we saw in the beginning of the year. but here's the thing. pepsi didn't rally, people. at least it didn't hold the gains. it's actually below where they reported. so i think to me you've got to really keep a close eye on these. and some of them on my radar are procter & gamble. consumer staple obviously and maybe some industrials. >> up next crude fell 5% this week and that sent shares of one energy giant to an all-time high. plus big tech on deck. our traders give you the one name they see surging next week on earnings. you will not believe what it is. and later, the one dow stock that's most susceptibl

brendan: there was a piece that looked at the euro bond market how it is becoming more liquid with qe it a more qe-based development, or is it long-term that the financial markets could become more important? neil: that is going to be the case. one of the benefits of what happened recently is that it actually creates some space in europe for further fiscal integration, further banking rate integration, and as that happens, you will have more dispersion in the financial markets. will that the throne the u.s. in terms of its preeminence? i do not think in any of our lifetimes. brendan: i like that neil dutta says further fiscal and banking integration, as if that is a thing that just could happen. neil: but europe is a process. brendan: greece and its creditors head back to the negotiating table. the process is not double dash is not over. the latest cycle of talks next, when hans nichols returns from vacation. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." vonnie quinn has our top headlines this morning.

. >> i think the chinese are on the road to full qe.licy makers in the world, they have the most levers left to poll. in fiscal and monetary resources, so they're going to keep going. this was the first of many moves. it will end with them doing full qe the same way the u.s. europe, and japan have. stephanie: we have got to talk puerto rico. you have spent a huge amount of time there looking at moving your fund there as an investment. what are you thinking? >> puerto rico is very interesting. when we are looking at the map on puerto rican geo's, basically benchmark bonds, which trades around 70, and we cannot get it to work around 70, we can get it to work around 45. it is a little surprising to me why the bonds are still here. i think the bonds could actually go down a lot more. i do not know how they get to a sustainable debt number without a significantly bigger haircut and i am for things in puerto rico to get worse. these things are never easy but i think ultimately, it will be an amazing opportunity. you have a tax system that has

steve: there are all these worst-case scenarios. 1.1 trillion in qe over eight months, 320 billion over6.5 years. the numbers do not imply a contagion. the whole point of all of this being a crisis, it would require a contagion for this to be a financial is. matt: with the v.a. contagion in greece. -- will this be a contagion greece was thrown out? steve: there has been a bit of spread widening biopic the market believes any other eurozone members would willingly follow the greek example. olivia: as we pointed out earlier in the party that has put up a new picture of him with tsipras on twitter. matt: the spanish communists are not necessarily a powerful party. they are colorful and interesting. this is not a finished story yet but if you go to see what happens to the greek economy and inability to report key necessities and with no change on the ecb's part this is very bad. olivia: do you think we are not paying enough attention to the chinese equities? steve: what i think is remarkable about this one is if you look at the relation between a shares and others, it is less of a correlati

at in a qe and commodity rout. we are in q3, i want to know what to do with it. like a long bond. -- do i go long bond? myles: a commodity rout is easier to take. the underweight commodity -- i think those issues you can clearly get a lot of juice. as a global investor thinking about developed markings -- developing markets, what does this do to the fed? does it mean the fed pauses and does not go ahead? it is going to be about u.s. economic data. i think all central banks in europe and u.s. are going to look through any volatility and spot inflation. jonathan: some of that can bleed. the other story in the u.s. has been working on if cheap oil is good for the u.s. economy or bad. myles: it is good for the u.s. economy. you see a fall in investment spending in the u.s.. longer-term impact is that the consumer who has a higher marginal -- to spend. they have a higher disposable income. there are timing aspects. i think cheap oil is good for the global economy, because consumers who generally are the west, overdoses -- oil producers who generally are opec -- jonath

so qe was put to bed last october. and then two, they go positive. even if it's 50 basis points they could move that. at the least, day can signal. think the fed wants the tool back in the tool belt. >> i think saying that september is a given is probably overstating the case. i think december is more likely. once they do what they'ring looing to do their data-dependent. the data is not strong enough for them to do it in september. you have two more employment data points been if they come in stronger than where the gdp number was, perhaps we have a chance. otherwise, december more likely. >> not that it matters. in the end, is it positive for the stock market? >> i think it depends why. i think right now, i have a slightly different take. saying that the fed is not as data- data-dependent. we're thinking september. if they're responding to, you know, a policy environment. that's normal. if responding to growth it could be a positive. i don't think this is 1994. i don't think there's an inflation scare. the market could take it reasonableblyy well. >

1, qe 2, qe 3, they have the got krona doing well not part of the euro, draghi and benny bernanke and the -- so you talk about sweden, i have used that as an a example for me, if you works you look at world wide, the whole stuff you have done, steve and your work on those countries that have had the fastest growth, the best performance have always been those that have low and have cut tax rates, two things matter the level of taxes matters and also the change in taxes matters as well. >> so you mentioned jerry brown. obviously, that was a seminal event where you had a leading liberal democrat talking about the flat tax. but today, you know, the democrats, a lot of them would support what bernie sanders was talking about, rates of 50, 60 70%. do you see any democrats that those of us support tax reform can work with to get -- to get this done? >> yeah, if i can take you back in time. i mean, to me today is exactly 1980, 1979, 1980. i have been to this barbecue before. at that time, neither the republicans nor the democrats really believed in anything we are talking about. we had a coup

if we get 300,000 and we raise rates while europe is doing even more qe, does that shifted too much? jeff: that story has been in the market for a long time. --, there is some marginal it's not the big move we already saw putting five -- .5% increase. -- the 25% increase. olivia: in the second quarter, the euro had a great three-month span versus the dollar. very different story and the u.s. treasury market. the first negative quarter for the u.s. treasury market since 2013. fixed income investors have never been quite so vulnerable. the biggest reversal on record. how does it feel out there trading in these markets? are you more nervous than ever than one big move one day could turn into a bad year? for fixed income investors is that they've had a lot of years of pretty decent returns and they've in rewarded for taking on more risk. throughout their portfolios. they've been forced to do that because of zero interest rate policy. investors need income. we are talking about older investors, people on the fixed income who need income. there is no interest rate in the zero interest rate

a financial contagion is somewhat limited, and you have the ecb aggressive with their qe , that couldind of downs life, and you do not want voting that without risky assets. >> are you going to go by 10 or 30 year u.s. treasury's that have been swinging all over the place and have these massive 8% gains in a reset losses, this is a pretty volatile area. it is not your typical safe haven. my point is that before having actual catalyst, there is not an easy place to hide. you have to have conviction. it is july, a lot of people are on vacation, trading volumes are low. there is not a clear result of what happened in greece. , no matterre yet what the vote is, it is going to be chaotic because it does not result everything. alix: what did that tell you about expectations of a rate hike? interesting.s very two-year yields did fall substantially. they are at the lowest level since may. this is different from what happened with the 10 year end to the 30 year. people are actually pushing back expectations for when the fed will raise rates. people are really saying that this will actually giv

at the qe continues moment. i think the policy may change. for the rest of 2015 it won't change. it is very confusing. we have structural reforms. some are being implemented. some are out of the hands of the japanese government. i think we will see positive progress. it is not just japan. interesting is the improvement in japanese corporate government and the undervaluation of the yen feeding through two good corporate earnings numbers. >> let's talk about that. everyone will go long dollar yen. the smart money sits in front of me, and they say the culture is changing. going to put shareholders first. is that happening? are you seeing it feed into stronger valuations? >> it is happening. is that currently discounted? the right strategy over the last year has been long on nikkei but hedge it. i think we are at the end game. the volatility will fall. i think we will make gains, but the extent of the gains is going to be very small. a lot of the good news is discounted and elevated by earnings ratio. abenomics fails, what does the boj do? >> i think that is going to be a huge proble

i think they will do qe for but when people wake up i cannot tell you it is amazing there so foolish for so long. charles: it is the tough trade and hillary kramer is year. why is he wrong? >> the reality is as the asset class equities are where you want to be. it is also about fundamentals some of the smartest people did not realize that what happened. >> we have a charge right now. is there a point? a lot of people want to sell gold at a loss. >> first of all, a lot of people were not as bullish as hillary is now but i have noted -- never told people to sell all their stocks to hold only goal i say keep 15% in gold and i stand by that but stocks are very expensive and even more in general them they were in 2000 because of fed has given more help their more dependent on zero interest-rate spot than alan greenspan it is dangerous to the market people of an estimated that before but i am not telling people is either/or it is not gold or stocks or gold for dollars or euro or the yen. compare it to alternatives for money. i would rather own gold or dollars origen. they will keep printin