give it to the rba.we've learned that credit suisse had discussions with the bankers, meetings about bonuses were due to be held today, but have been moved forward. our senior staff editor joins me now around the desk. that brings me back to toby young's book, how to lose friends and alienate people -- how do you lose bankers and get them to walk out the door? >> credit suisse employees would be happy to have that. we were told that the last minute, talks were due to be held today, yesterday they were told it is not happening. really what we're hearing is this affects managing directors at director level, and there really is no clarity on when these talks might happen, or if they might happen at all. bonuses are due at the end of the month, so really not much time left if they are going to go ahead. manus: and this is about retaining staff, staff retention, and that is a key long-term incentive when your stock is on its knees, isn't it? >> this adds to the uncertainty for these bankers. we are hearing ab

and we will talk about the rba.f the great tightening cycles, it's about how long will we keep rates at these long levels right now? that's a key message that powell will talk about. this concept of higher for longer as opposed to just continuing to tighten and tighten and tighten. rishaad: cities u.s. economic index had a one-day rise that's its largest students 2012. we have consumer loans increasing exponentially then we have the jobs report. this is an economy that is seemingly highly resilient. has -- done anything? ? and you're right, it's a very strong economy. however, i would drive home the point when it comes about the labor market, remember, labor is a lagging economic indicator and i suspect this cycle will be more lagging because we know companies have struggled to attract and keep workers right now. it goes back to my earlier comments. we have tightening of financial conditions and i still felt even though the economy is strong, i do expect it to weaken. having said that, inflation is the most importan

that is in the economic sphere, but not in the rba. sides of the political aisle in australia of appointing part-timers to the rba board. they often get to keep their day jobs whether they are in mining, retailing, academia, scientific research. the idea is these folks represent a broad swathe of the community. fair enough. but do they have the expertise to stand up to rba staff? the board has to be accountable. how can you be accountable if there's no vote count? haidi: bloomberg opinion columnist dan moss there as we gear ourselves up from another day of testimony from the rba governor tomorrow. australia's primary exchange, the asx, reported a 71% profit. they suspended the replacement of the exchanges clearing and settlement system. let's discuss the results and outlook with helen lofthouse, the asx see you. when it comes to the outlook of technology, give us an idea of what we are at at the moment and what we can expect. >> certainly. thank you for having me today. today we given up to act -- we gave an update on the chess project

today's data to me looks quite soft and below the rba's forecast.ing close to the rba pause. maybe one more rate hike in march. i think the risk is the rba will pause and those market pricings for the cash rate won't be met. haidi: an interesting headline i saw, even if there is no technical recession, a lot of households will feel like we are in a recession. how much does that impact confidence? diana: the confidence numbers tell us consumers are feeling terrible. concessionary -- in session like levels already. and at the same time, over the coming months, that impact to households will get much worse. we know about 880,000 fixed-rate mortgages are due to roll off on the rba's own data. i think there is a lot of downside pressure to come for the household sector. i just think the rba is underestimating the impact to the household. it will start to come back in the data. we saw yesterday with the retail sales print, there was a rebound in january but it was not particularly strong. shery: what are you seeing from the earnings season and what compan

the rba, the fed and likely -- likewise boj.he start of trading for cash treasuries a 10-year yield at the open, we saw it reaching its highest level this year after that harder than expected ppi data that came through. mortgage commentary from fed officials. japan at the outset today we are getting more perspective coming through on what the boj perspective will be. the first meeting march 10, economist saying no change expected in terms of rate. will be the -- what would be the first to change? we could see a policy review come a lot of economist say scrapping the yield curve control and adjustments for guidance on guidance of interest rates. we are looking risk off the nikkei down .8% on the opening. we change what is coming through with fed officials, to more hawkish policymakers signaling we could see a 50 basis point hikes in the months ahead. the cleveland fed president and also echo by her counterpart at the st. louis fed. both the same policymakers should be open to bigger rate hikes forward if the economic conditions w

also coming up today, the rba minutes will be of interest.t has been a fairly relentless, hawkish drumbeat from the rba. it probably won't be too much, but a lot of reading the tea leaves. are they going to hike? that sets the stage for our bz tomorrow, then the bank of korea later. the new zealand treasury was saying that its aid package to help the population there deal with the cyclone that has hit is likely to add to demand and keep inflation higher than it would otherwise be. that might be enabling statement to allow the our bz to go ahead with the 50 basis point hike that had long been expected for this meeting. even in the face of the damage from the cyclone. >> when it comes to china, it sounds like perhaps you were dubious about this 24% upside call from goldman. what do investors need to see at the moment? if this thesis of reopening to recovery, too i guess a more structural growth effort. >> you need to see continuing stimulus efforts, which do seem to be coming through. you also need to see real evidence that the stimulus is goin

we have the rba quarterly statement to this hour.pening here is traders are anticipating we could see a re-duration of the hawkish tilt that came through the last rba meeting. still seeing stocks lighting. that is down to the losses coming through in the i.t. market. haidi: we are just going to continue watching what is going on when it comes to hybe and sm entertainment. sm entertainment saying it opposes the hostile takeover attempth. ybe pumping as much as 9.2 percent. announcing the purchase as well as its attention to take as much as a 25% stake. bts agency jumping into this battle between cookout as well as sm entertainment. the founder to buy the 14 point in -- 14.8 sent stake. we are going to continue to watch how this plays out because hybe, the manager of bts is finding itself in the middle of what is a messy and fascinating corporate battle between the godfather of kapok and -- of kapok and -- offering to buy another 25% of the agency from investors according to filings we have had this morning. jumping close to 18%. sm en

yesterday all about the boj, today, the rba.e is facing to parliamentary grilling sputum more details just ahead. let's just bring back the ticker. and check how the stock has come online. the revenue met forecast. it was buttressed by rising heights from the rbf. we are seeing ages decline 4.5%. broadly, the big focus for today's trading is coming down to those inflation numbers. they were still hot. cpi print. you had officials saying we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle. that was something that gave me optimism, particularly noticing that in the direction for yields on saturday, treasury yields climbing. you can get through all the details we saw it led by the short end of the curve and reflected in kiwi debt. shery: i love you setting it up for me, but you're talking about philadelphia fed president, right? his comments allowed investors to call back losses in the morning. we had the dallas fed president, the richmond fed president with a clear message rates could be higher for longer. as a belt mentioned, the cpi

the rba is obviously one factor. rba is expected to hike 50 basis points later today.tant is the tone and win -- so everyone is going to watch for that. we expect the middle to be much higher. so, there's still more runway to go. inflation, soft labor market will likely result in -- you have rate differentials and then australia is also a china beneficiary. if china grows, not only -- but true investment channel, then australia -- [indiscernible]haidi: if china is the upside driver for the broader emerging-market complex, do you see india as the drag? would you make of broader indian risk assets given that we know see this crisis in the third week. >> that's a good point to highlight. india in general is seen as a safe haven for china trade. when china risks increase significantly, assets tend to be muted. the india trade is actually the -- when china rallies 20% based on expectations, a lot of policy pivots have to be priced in. then we see in the opportunities look attractive. indian growth is much larger and faster than the rest of the region. earnings are expected

the rba inches forward and debt servicing costs will grind them to a stop. next year, depending on how harshly or how well the savings buffer goes in terms of how thin it stretches over the coming months, how quickly they are forced to reverse course over the coming months. haidi: how much further will they go? >> it is your from the rba comments that they are looking to do another one to two, especially the comments from the governor's appearances the course of last week. another one to two hikes in the cycle is about fair. markets pricing and a cash rate peak of 4.1 so three more to go. that would be an elevated level but it is going to be a case as well as something the governor has stressed, which is the rba relative to other central banks. the sooner the fed peaks, the clearer the air will be for the rba to end the cycle. haidi: there is still a recession fear. how is your outlook changed now that we are a couple months into the china reopening? >> this is the two parts of the economy, domestic pressure and the external environment. with china's reopeni

the rba surprising traders in their decision on tuesday.a bit more hawkish than they could have been. also indicating they are not done yet. in terms of the rate hikes ahead. the focus in the session today for asia will remain on the fed. let's listen to some more of the highlights from the interview with the jay powell and are bloomberg tv contributor david rubenstein. >> we are at the beginning of this process, the disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down has a long way to go. at these are the early stages of disinflation. it is not going to be, smooth. it is going to be bumpy. this process is likely to take a bit of time. it will take, not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%. we think we will need to do for rate increases. keep rates at of strict of level for a period of time. the best case as it will take some time. we'll have to do more rate increases and have to look around and see if we have done enough. shery:our next guest is predicting a dollar bear market, let's welcome ken peng. ken, good

shery: recession risk rising in australia as the rba is seen hiking more than the fed. annabelle: we have the start of a new trading week upon us in asia and we are looking decidedly risk off as we head into the day's trading. two factors driving cap -- we did not have that preferred inflation reading coming through the core pce numbers. off that, we are seeing futures for us trillion setting up for a weaker start and new zealand in the red already as the session gets underway. other factors we are focusing on in the days trading, we will be watching what happens in china throughout the week, giving a sense of anticipation tilting for the upcoming congress. a lot of traders expecting there will be more progrowth policies, especially watching what is happening with the property sector. we are watching moves in bitcoin. we see that decoupling with bitcoin versus what is happening in traditional financial assets, but really very much focused on what is happening with china ahead of that nbc. haidi: we are waiting for this fresh catalyst to come in the way of policy and tha

even the variable rates still occur with the lack from the rba.age holders notified when it hits their bank account. i think there will probably be more pain in the coming months but markets are forward-looking. as soon as these leading indicators begin to bottom, i think that will be a bottom of and equity markets as well. haidi: what are you watching as far as currency? anna: for australia it is driven by china. i think that will be the absolute driver in the coming year. haidi: when it comes to the geopolitical tensions -- we have seen big headline stocks impacted, a lot of the miners impacted. is that in the back of your mind when it comes to looking at that exposure directly or indirectly to china? anna: definitely. we had a worst case scenario for them, so it's only positive for that. over the weekend, slightly shakier but it feels like australian and china relations have reached a turning point, hopefully only positive from here. haidi: great to have you with us, anna. tune into bloomberg radio, you can hear more from newsmakers and get in-

tom: the rba hikes rates to a 10-year high, adding further tightening is needed, all the fed's rafael bostic says a higher peak rate may be necessary. earnings in focus again today, bp hikes takes dividend and extend the share buyback after posting record profit. while bnp paribas plans to buyback five leave them euros worth of shares. plus, more from our exclusive interview with the ceo of s,, south africa's state-owned utility, as the nation faces its worst blackouts on record. francine: let's take a look at futures, the main story is what you will or will not hear from jay powell. look at the futures, they are holding on, trading sideways after what rafael bostic said yesterday. tom: he's not a voting member, but important context around the direction of the fed. in terms of jay powell, that's interesting, is he going to push back on market expectations, and will he push back against still pretty loose financial conditions? pretty key is that speech from jay powell. the ftse 100 gaining .1%, the cac 40 in france gaining eight points, the spanish ibex range bound. we have data from

one more question when it comes to the rba. we have the testament.e expecting a lot of pressure to come down on phil low over his guidance and things seem to have heated up over the last couple weeks. is there a danger of destabilizing policy going forward you think? >> it is interesting. he has faced a lot of pressure in the past. roll the clock back to pre-covid. there was lots of pressure on why the economy was not stronger, why the unemployment rate was relatively high. he absorbed that and went through the other side and did not noticeably have a direct impact on policy though they obviously did eventually change and shift. i do not think the testimony will necessarily force a move near term. but, the idea he is looking and policy settings as they might pivot and change, that is entirely possible and hopefully we get that in his communications. >> sarah hunter chief economist at kpmg australia. >> in emerging markets we are watching for a fresh wave of currency devaluations. already this year we had heavily indented egypt, pakistan, and lebanon

still, a big concern as the rba signals more hearts are still to come. shery: quite a shift. we thought australia was perhaps relayed this attached -- detached from global supply chain disruption and now we are seeing u.s. resilience stronger than expected. pce data, surprising to the upside. u.s. consumer sentiment rising to the highest level in the year or so. so, right now, u.s. futures coming online pretty muted. not a lot of change now in the asian session. when it came to the new york session we had the s&p 500 seeing its worst week in 2023. tech is leading the deadline. the nasdaq 100 lost about 2% or so. rising yields. repricing of where the fed will go from here. we had more hawkish fed speak this week whether it was loretta mester, jim bullard, susan coleman. the pce numbers, the dollar surging to the highest in a year or so. all of this reflected across markets. oil prices now, a little gain in the asian session. it has been muted training for oil as well. range bound around $10 the entire year coming at a time when the rebound in demand coming from china has not r

that's after the rba. anz raised rates by 50 basis points and signals inflation is still too high.on bloomberg. when i went to start researching different roofers in my area, i was overwhelmed. it was so much information at once. then we got on and it was just insane how quickly things went. contractors pop up on your screen. you can read other people's experiences to me. angie is a time saver. i scheduled it right then and there. it was really just such a seamless, enjoyable experience that i never thought i would be saying that about a project at my home. got a home project. get started at angie dot com today and at interactive brokers independent arias worked with the best research and trading tools designed to help them outperform the markets. meet them at interactive brokers, investors marketplace for advisors. advisors at interactive brokers keep all they earn on our low cost platform with no ticket fees or custody charges. low margin rates and high interest earned on idle cash. to get better results, get a better platform. the best informed investors choose interactive broke

. >> we have been listening to the testimony of the rba. >> she is speaking to parliament. -- he is speaking to parliament. she acknowledged that we know how painful it is for regular people to see these rate hikes rising and astray is a country where most people have adjustable mortgages. it was quite interesting, he finds getting blamed for high rates on himself unfair. after all, interest rate decisions are taken by a nine-member board. he intends to serve out his seven year term. he wants to get inflation down because it is dangerous. if you have a lot of inflation and you are raising rates, this is the kind of criticism you are going to face. he said it is not there intention to push all still got into recession. -- australia into recession. he said it would be a bad outcome for the board if he resigns. you can call it self-serving or realistic. in the moment like this, do you want the governor to resign and bring in somebody else? seems to me you want continuity. there is a lot of criticism be invented at him. -- being vented at him. >> it is a difficult job, but they got this one wron

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we had from the likes of the rba minutes, suggesting the rba did consider a 50 basis point hike and thef 1%. it is also about the bond story. yields have been trending upwards. we have 10 year yields trending up at the highest level this year. the highest since november and in asia, similar story. china 10 year yields, to have basis points, interesting to note that foreign investors have been pulling money from chinese bonds because of the continued easing in monetary policy that we are seeing in china. rishaad: ok. let's have a look at what is happening in thailand with the bangkok open. the stock exchange of thailand moving to the upside by about 1/10 of 1%. dollar making some big gains, half a percent as of late. best performer in asia. one stock in thailand is an ipo. it is called chase india and it is up 20% on its debut. it provides financial advisory services to companies and nonperforming debt management systems. it is restricted to china but certainly the ipo getting off to a good start. looking also with regards to india and seeing the start of the trading day there. 45 minute

brent crude reflecting fears around global slowdown, but we also have the rba under a little pressurewe have governor fronting two panels and we understand from the country's finance minister chambers that a review into the rba is ongoing in terms of its communication strategies. haidi: we do have some more breaking news when it comes to the alleged china spy balloon. this coming from the u.k. -- they are set to launch a security review over these chinese balloons that were shot down over the u.s. and have captivated so much of the world. we've seen further developments of other unidentified objects but we are hearing from the defense secretary of the u.k. to work with allies to analyze intelligence, warning these balloons may have already crossed over to the u.s. ben wallace has said these balloons probably spied on the u.k. china maintaining these balloons are civilian and for climate use. shery: let's go back to the breaking news on singapore's economy, growing by 2.1% year on year in the fourth quarter, slower than last orders expansion and below analyst estimates. let's bring in

haidi: you think the rba has already done enough to bring down inflation.heard governor lowe talk about the risk of entrenched inflation, and that sentiment, the psychology of having to bring it down before that happens. is there a risk of over tightening not just for australia but for a policy mistake elsewhere? >> we have sent multiple rate hikes quite aggressive, and for people, it is the change that will have an impact last year with support to some degree of negative rate hikes offset by the reopening. that reopening bern in australia will start to fade. everyone has got out there and done their revenge spending and travel. we will start to see the impact of tightening and as a consequence, i think the reserve bank has done enough. obviously, the reserve bank has a slightly different view on the risks. we will almost certainly see another hike next month. another one in april, if not then in may. in the -- if the data we are getting from a straley a with retail sales next week, and mid-march, jobs figures on the soft side again, you don't see much of a

tuesday, bloomberg economics predicting the rba will deliver its last rate hike of the cycle.he majority of economists predicting a 25 basis point hike. india also such release its monetary policy decision on wednesday. president biden will deliver the state of the union address before congress tuesday. he is expected to highlight key priorities and legislative goals as a new republican-controlled house begins to settle in. eco-data in china ppi data. ppi data out of japan. and initial jobless claims out of the u.s. shery: let's delve into market moves and what we expect this week. our next guest says she is underweight china as president xi crackdown. belita, great to have you with us. we know the crackdown has subsided a little bit, how much of this is to do with transparency and clarity of what leadership will do with these businesses? belita: thank you for having me back. as i mentioned before dalton invests one company at a time and we are looking to invest in businesses we can purchase with margin of safety along with entre nous or whose interests are along with ours. we

alix: as we learn from the rba, inflation rates could go up again and rates could go up again.ooking forward to coverage coming up later this afternoon. we will bring you jerome powell speaking with david rubenstein live at 12:30 p.m. our next guest after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we think about why we have seen the equity rally to start this year and it's because we so real interest rates fall. they started at 1.6% and fell to about 1.1% but now they are backup to 3.5% and we have not seen valuations reflect these higher religious rates. we've got them 23 times to start the year and the nasdaq but now we are trading at 27 times. we think the real risk is again back on the valuation front for equities because we are at the high end of historical ranges. alix: that was from earlier on the risks of the equity rally. will markets listen to jay powell this time? let's talk to a senior investment strategist. we are twin in so do you think the markets will listen today? >> at the press conference last week, jay powell was explicitly asked what do you make of financial condit

we'll be getting the rba's meeting that it's on tuesday.comes after governor philip lowe faced tough questions from lawmakers and suggestions his board is risking a recession through aggressive interest rate hikes. the reserve tank of new zealand is poised to deliver a 10th straight hike wednesday as the country battles with the hottest inflation in decades. economist expect the bank of korea to hold its key rate on thursday ending an 18 month tightening cycle. g20 ministers begin a three-day week. haidi: will also be on the lookout for major company earnings out the major pacific and the u.s. this week. hsbc and alibaba are some of the biggest names to report. shery: our next guest says economic data does not move in straight lines. investors have one more u.s. cpi print to watch before the next fed meeting. joining us is the chief investment officer of a capital partners. how much of a difference will that make? i find it interesting the narrative now that markets are being supportive of the fact markets are resilient when that could mean

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the risk is that the rba continues to hike and then we see the cumulative impact of although those hikesn the second half. >> how do you build a portfolio that withstands the laf effect? >> diversification is one-on-one to portfolio construction. it is about pouring that new money to work at the moment while new valuations are as high as they are and they are back above historical averages. we will look for more opportunistic spots in the equity markets before putting the cash to work. >> how many of -- how much of better opportunities found in small caps? >> small caps is an area where we are seeing a lot of opportunity at the moment. it is about setting up investors now for the eventual rebound in the sector takes place. there is a huge divergence between valuations between small caps and the rest of the market. if we look at the grenada states the small-cap index is trading at a 20% discount. we can say that there is a big disparity between valuations there and you can see why. interest rate hikes took a lot of liquid to be out of the market. -- liquidity out of the market. that provi

haslinda: so, having said that, what are you expecting from the rba policy meeting next week?ng next week? >> a 20 basis point hike next week. we think core inflation in india has remained fairly sticky. the downward surprises you have seen in recent months has been completely led by food inflation, and within food inflation, it is completely led by vegetables and fruits, so you can't exactly tie the reversal in those prices, but we are confident it will come. as long as core inflation remain sticky, we think there will be one more hike of 25 basis points , especially with inflation remain sticky. rishaad: how do you see growth for the economy through this year? >> so, we think from 2022, growth will slow down in 2023, by about 1%. you're looking at 7% growth in 2022. 6% in 2023. that is a good slow down because that get you back towards the potential growth, which we estimate at around 6% of gdp, so that should become the inflation rate of growth for india. remember that the consumption rebound you have seen post-pandemic will peter off, while the investment cycle continues i

the asx 200 index up by half a percent but rba set to decide on a rate decision, bear in mind the barbecueown in the momentum of inflation is very high. csi 300 index down. housing sales down. pmi suggesting pockets of weakness and the dichotomy -- let me get the word right -- dichotomy between hedge funds and mutual funds in terms of holdings. hedge funds near record highs. mutual funds we take a look at the longer-term perspective, well, they are underweight china. taking a look in terms of the fx base, the dollar is higher. the bot and the kiwi and the aussie dollar down .2% of 1% and the bond market, saying it could be a pushback in terms of a pivot. yield currently trending downward. rishaad: we're looking at just a slight move to the upside there as the set gets going. a quick check. one third of 1% up. against the thai baht that has been strong of late. meanwhile prospects for the indian market are looking positive with the nifty showing again of 1% -- of a half a 1%. the rupee also with a bit of a dollar strength on 81.92. and this is the treasury market right now 10-year yield, 3.

david: speaking of central banks, the big one this year is the rba as far as the region is concerned that is tomorrow. it could be the last one as far as economists are concerned, they will hike one more time and maybe that is it for the current tightening cycle. a couple of other central-bank bank decisions, rbis, inflation numbers coming out. part of the week as far as friday is concerned. let's put the boards if we can. and a lot of other things to track. that is the macro picture. the micro picture, we can look at investing, earnings. a lot of big companies and focus in the region. we have been busy in japan. we will get extremely busy in india, see you look at these big names and a daunting group of companies are set to report as news goes online. give us the pixie dust, if you will and what they might actually say about what's going on. do they focus in fundamentals or can they? this is a long script, if we can scroll, thank you so much. and that takes us to yvonne. yvonne: every day you will hear more from adani group talking about each of those units. we will be getting a lot

numbers leading into the holiday season but this could suggest a turning point, particularly with how the rbarts to look at these data series as well. let's you to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: thank you. the u.s. secretary of state, antony blinken, is considering sitting down with his chinese counterpart. sources say the diplomats would meet at the munich security conference later this week provided both sides agree. keep put out his trip to beijing after washington identified an alleged chinese spy balloon. the white house says there is no indication that alien activity is behind the downing of objects over the u.s. and canada. the three uso's had stoked speculation they could be related to extraterrestrial life forms. the press secretary dismissed any such concern. >> there is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns. again, there is no indication of aliens or terrestrial activity with these recent takedowns. >> consumer prices in india rose more than expected last month, reinforcing predictions the central bank will keep raisin

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where the opposition is not in favour of removing king charles from the banknote, but is said by the rbaom the government. so it's not a government. so it's not a government decision, it's a rba decision that has been by government advice and we do reflect that the queen's head will still be on the coinage and then as it wears out with charles as well. so the link still there ? it is still there still there? it is still there and i think one of the most important things was when prime minister rishi sunak was elected to his position . anthony to his position. anthony albanese, our prime minister had a very quick and warm conversation . our security and conversation. our security and trade partnership with the uk will strong because at the end of the day we have a relationship with the united kingdom as a country, not with the monarchy, as an institution . and so i think the strength of our relationship will continue to well into the future. we had the referendum, of course , i the referendum, of course, i think, back in 1999. where are we on? the whole issue of the republican debate? bec

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