from the rbc head of global effects on "countdown" after the break. -- from rbc head of global fx. ♪brent crude hitting four-year low overnight. saudi arabia cutting the cost of its supplies to the u.s. what do the commodity moves mean in the oil market? adam cole joins us live from london, rbc head of global fx. the norwegian krone is dropping. the dollar a stronger but likewise the canadian dollar is strong in. who will weather this better? the dollar overall is probably the winner on the other side of the commodity currency losses. the other less directive is wasng in the bank of japan tied directly to the inflationary impact of lower oil prices. we now seem to be an environment where the bank of japan is responding to relatively short-term developments raising the prospect of further boj easing at upcoming meetings. i think there's a secondary effect elsewhere where the policy response will induce a currency move and that's why you see the yen weakening so much today. saying 115 sort of is not a consensus on dollar-yen. bank of japan is moving ahead without consensus supporting a

rbc capitalub at markets. it is really interesting, actually come a new documentary, do we need to change how we teach economics? that is our question of the day out on twitter on economics. this is a raging debate -- do we need to change how we teach economics? >> i did not take economics 101. isat in one day into th -- sat in one day and took a look at the prospectus -- >> tom, you did not even major in it. >> he taught econ 101 at dartmouth. ♪ >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." "imothy armstrong, "in the loop with betty liu at 8:00 a.m. this morning. always likes to talk about the experience known to americans. brendan? >> the only person who is infected to do anything about the eurozone is mario draghi, head of the ecb. golub is bullish on the u.s., but not big on your of purity when a big on draghinomics? >> does he have a mandate to do whatever but he is hoping he does, and if every time he looks like he wants to do something larger, germany comes out and reminds him that he may not hav

janle nelson is portfolio analyst with rbc wealth management. welcome and happy day after thanksgiving. i want to talk to you broadly about the market. but let's begin with oil. how close does your spidey sense tell you we are to that point at which oil company shares are a buy, and the oil price might turn north? >> well, i think what we need to see, ty, is we need to see a response to the outlook for 2015 by the exploration and production companies. i just attended a conference down south and my sense at that conference was there was a lot of complacency. nothing gets a company's attention more than when the commodity price falls 10% in one day. >> let's go to a broader question about where the markets you think are headed. my notes tell me that you think we're in the middle or the early innings, i should say, of a secular bull market that you think began in 2012 and '13. what does that look like? and does that mean necessarily that we won't have 10%, 15% declines within that context? >> well, exactly. when we say a secular bull market what we

helima croft is with us with rbc capital markets.heeverybody question of, why are these talks important to america? >> it is the big question of, can you get a final settlement on the iranian-nuclear issues? i think this is very important. the notion there is no common ground -- i mean, in the last year, significant, ground has been reached. there are some big hurdles remaining. >> what is the biggest hurdle? >> sanctions. can you pull off the yuan sanctions, how quickly can the u.s. sections be removed? also what kind of nuclear architecture iran should have. the white house once a deal. >> before tew before the new co- >> of course. once you have mitch mcconnell senate majority leader, the transfer new sanctions is really on the table. >> over the summer we saw estimates of whether a joe kennedy reached by the 24th -- whether a deal can be reached by the 24th. where is yours? >> 35%. and the iranopec nuclear negotiations are tied together. i think if you get a deal on iran, that puts the pressure on opec will stop people will start

that is a pretty big call by rbc, but it is not that outlandish. markets are rebounded from two days of losses. republicans take the senate. lame duck president is what you hear a lot about. will there be a contest against mariota draghi -- mario draghi? the a look at some of equity markets in the u.k. us go for oil. gold is declining this morning. down by more than 3.35%. marks and spencer's, this is an interesting report in that general merchandise decline. non-food sales dropped by 4%. rse than the market estimate. pretext profitability is up. 260 million pounds. that beat analyst estimates because they are not discounting. margin is king in retail. you saw supergroup and next warning in terms of profitability. marks and spencer said our margins are intact. our gross margins will be the basis points, 150-200, or 1.5%-2%. that is almost double the original guidance. stocks falling. 404.7. it could be a moment of reprieve for the ceo. trom sold their energy division ii ge now it is all about trains. the market not happy with what it is seeing. bp

going to bring in james ashley, chief economist at rbc capital markets. james, after last week, we had gdp data which just showed the eurozone and growth. pmi data so far this morning is just more than we expected and perhaps suggest that we won't be able to stay in that growth environment for much longer. let's take a step back from the small movements up, small movements down. the big picture is the euro area is stuck in a rut where growth is going to be weak for a period of time. ordinarily, if you told me the composite slipped by less than 1 point, i would not get too concerned. this time, actually, it is more significant. we've been in this range with the composite index of 52 to 54 for pretty much a year now so we've now fallen below that. that's the sign the economy hasn't going much going on. there is going to be in that small, positive range for a period of time. there's no escaped philosophy picking up right now. >> so does this data confirm the case for mario draghi to unveil full blown quantitative easing? >> i don't think so. i think if the e

it also got an upgrade at rbc. >> the stock is up nearly 10%. 83.95. the ticker symbol is data. billings far ahead of what was expected. target boosted to $100. mandy, another 15 plus percent upside even after today's gains seen by rbc. >> let's move on to mondelez. >> the food company's stock up 1.5% to 37.73. the rating jumping two spots. their target boosted to 44 from 38. mondolez raised their forecast. a lot of positive commentary. up 9% in the last month. in fact, one of the best performers on in the last 30 days. kind of rather quietly, i think. sl >> it has indeed. your under-the-radar name of the day. it is eplus, a virginia-based i.t. selling and leasing business. who knew? how we know. >> our viewers now. it beat estimates handily. earnings were up 53% for eplus year over year. raises their price target to 70 bucks a share. by the way, the average target of the four analysts who cover it is 73.33. it's just a name to have on your radar. look at the jump today. the stock's up 17%. >> that warrants a whistle. >> there you go. and it got one. now to "talking numbers," wh

rbc, john, modeling 20 million units in year one at 520 price point above what apple suggested. >> whos will play out over the next year. what i keep thinking is how wrong the market was to send apple down as far as it did a couple years back. when you think about the ranges of time that the market is supposed to think in that was so clearly wrong now, there was all this talk about apple is going get run over by android, by samsung. we see what's happening with samsung stock with commoditization hitting them at the low end. apple is selling lots of products at a profit. now the watch i think is key for the next year and how they can expand the ecosystem outside the phone, whether they go into tvs or something like that. >> i wonder is this deja vu with microsoft playing an instrumental role in apple's future? i wonder how much the office suite being so much more pronounced and readily available on these devices is playing a role? the apps have been top of the app store, all the microsoft office apps. do you think that's doing anything to drive the company and purchase cycle and stock?

joining us is tom porcelli, rbc capital markets chief u.s. economist and heidi moore, the guardian u.s. finance & economics editor . thank you for being here today. friday morning was an interesting time to hear from the ecb and from china all within moments of each other. tom, what do you think this means? >> look, i don't think anyone should be surprised by the fact you have this -- people call it coordination, i don't think it is coordination. i think the reality is the economies are going through a cyclical swing down and require a lift. i think the ecb was telegraphed ages ago. the china development was something of a surprise to be sure. even there, i think how surprised can you be when you look at their pmi oscillating above and below grade the last two years. i think the reality is the u.s. is fortunately not in the same boat. the fed policymakers are going to basically try to take some of that a stimulus out. it is interesting the dichotomy we have right now. >> heidi, it may not be a coordinated effort, i don't think th is the case

market strategist at rbc capital market. jonathan, before we get into how november's going to be and the rest of the year, i want to talk to you about oil prices that jackie was just reporting on. how does that change maybe your investment strategy going forward? how might low aer prices impact the market? >> what most people think is that lower oil prices are good because it means gasoline prices are down and that's good for consumers and industrial companies get to produce at lower prices for manufactured products. the problem is, though, is that the energy sector is a huge part of the s&p 500, so in fact it really is a drag on the market's returns when you thing abok aboe size of energy. but when investors see oil down as severely as it's been in the last few months, they really start asking are we seeing economic weakness and that makes them somewhat concerned. so this is probably not a healthy thing for markets going forward. there are a lot of good things but right now lower oil is probably not one of them. >> so you t

analysts at rbc say it could be another 12 months before there's a resolution to that dispute. qualcomm isn't alone in facing challenges in china. the chinese state media says beijing should punish what it calls the pawns of the u.s. government pointing to cisco, microsoft and google. >> it's very clear that the chinese government really wants to do things internally and anything with a decent margin coming from abroad will be scrutinized. >> despite these headwinds in china, qualcomm bulls point to the company's chip business which they say is enjoying strong moment tum. its chips are used, for example in apple's new iphone 6. they say the stock is cheap and the company is committed to capital return. still, china now represents about 208% of qualcomm's total revenue and investors want to see more clarity about where its business in china is headed. for "nightly business report," i'm josh lipton in silicon valley. >> record rd quart lit deliver deliveries drove tesla earnings beat. that's where we begin the focus. the carmaker posted a profit. analysts expected tesla to report

joining us right now is tom purcelli, chief economist at rbc capital markets. heidi moore is the guardian's u.s. finance and economics editor. tom and heidi, thank you both for being here today. friday morning was a very interesting time. to hear from the ecb and from china, all within moments of each other. tom, what do you think this means? >> i don't think anybody should be surprised by the fact you have this -- people will call it coordination. i don't think it's coordination. i think the reality is these economies are going through the cyclical swing down and they require a lift. and so i think the ecb was telegraphed ages ago. the china development was something of a surprise, to be sure. but even there how surprised can you be when you look at their pmi? it's basically been oscillating sort of above and below break even for the last two years. so i just think the reality is the u.s. is fortunately not in that same boat. and the fed policy makers are going to basically try to take some of that stimulus out. so it's a very interesting sort of dichotomy we

joining us now from new york is an analyst from rbc capital markets.aereo has gotten a lot of attention. consumers seem to love this thing. what is the lasting take away from the end of aereo? >> i think it was a really interesting product from a consumer utility perspective. i don't know how many subscribers there ultimately were. i think the court documents that discussed some of the subscriber base showed us it was not a particularly enormous base. change in the media ecosystem is painful, there is clearly an innovators dilemma. the great innovation tends to come from outside of the system. i think aereo's contribution at the end of the day was probably a push to continue to make the media ecosystem evolve, to see some of these ala c la carte products to see if that could've been a catalyst, or maybe the hbo products. i think they were a catalyst, but ultimately they did not fit within the regulatory landscape. but maybe they help to push and change the regulatory landscape. >> the networks trying to keep people from consuming their service the way

rbc raises dish, target from 69 to 81.s been a phenomenal stock, talking about spectrum, spectrum's worth more. people are worried about verizon and how much verizon has to spend. >> and at&t. when you watch the numbers in the auction of spectrum, rise well beyond what many people anticipated. >> david, what i want to know is, is dish in the cat bird's seat? chatter seems. >> value of the spectrum holdings going up as a result of what at&t, verizon, perhaps another bidder, maybe dish, buying some. but what they're willing to pay for the up and down link. that being said, the question becomes, when will they be able to some way realize the value 0 of the spectrum? what transaction do they do that can do that? charlie ergan may have one number in mind but it doesn't mean someone may buy it from him the balance sheet constraints of those that would do is almost impossible, unless something out of the box. >> soft bank? >> ooh softbank i don't think so. >> sprint -- >> you can't discount -- what you cannot discount is dish and

chief commodity strategist at rbc. formally head of research at barclays. as well as an analyst at the cia. welcome. you say the kuwaitty are going to be key to this but they have no reason to cut. >> they have no reason to cut. they can withstand a lot of pain. and so they have been saying, look. why don't we wait till winter. no need to cut now. and with the saudi minister coming out saying that markets should stabilize i think that signal she is in that kuwait camp right? >> why where do you see the floor now? >> some think it could go down to about 71.50 by monday. and will they reconvene in february and far if you see prices continuing to fall like this. >> so what do you think? >> i think the saudis are in a different position than kuwait. they have 24 million people, 750 million in reserves but very high spending. and they need around a hundred to balance the budget. i think the saudis won't necessarily let it go into q two. >> what if you did see one of the scenarios i mention playing out. what if you did indeed see no cut and initially the crude ma

. >>> rbc capital markets is hosting a technology conference today. mark harris is head of global research for the firm. welcome to "power lunch." i know you don't specifically cover alibaba but your firm certainly does. it has a $130 price target on the stock and a buy on the stock. when you look at this amazing company now that it is public, will it be an even bigger powerhouse than it is now? david posed that question to jack ma. what are your thoughts? >> i think the reality is it can continue to grow. you look at the market opportunity ahead of it and the untapped market opportunity ahead of it. obviously within china there is still enormous room. you can see the impact as it is continuing to grow. think about the international side of that. our analyst on the internet certainly would be the first to point out they have hardly begun to touch things outside the borders. that is the real opportunity for the company. >> the other thing that may fall in your wheelhouse is the issue of net nutrality. it is a big issue after the president weighed in sa

nick modi at rbc says look, it has good margins. it has steady cash flow and there's a lot of overcapacity, meaning there's room for cost cuts. tyler, you know buffett's style. those are all things that are pretty consistent with his philosophies on buying companies. >> and he loves durable products. >> doesn't get more durable than a duracell battery. >> right? and he likes things that are simple, that he can understand. like dairy queen. >> boring, some would say. >> boring is beautiful sometimes. thanks very much. let's lock in the vote. let's see what people said. what did the people say? does the battery business still have life? >> yes. >> 57 -- they're not willing to bet against buffett. our viewers are smart here, right? >> long-term life, battery life. >> battery life. all right, folks. sue, down to you. >> well, they're going to need batteries because they're power outages because of the record-breaking freezing temperatures. in fact, in casper, wyoming, last night, negative 26 degrees. the lowest temperature ever recorded

. >> rbc upgrading to an outperform. about 20% upside. ace raising price target to 23 on tru car.evenue better than expected. >>> the real under-the-radar name is ticker cgnx. >> yeah, never heard of them. that's why we do this. massachusetts-based technical instrument maker. they make things like giant bar code scanners for warehouses. c canaccord starting with a buy. about 20% upside on cgnx. >>> now to "talking numbers." that is, of course, our daily look at a stock from both a fundamental and a technical perspective. today that stock is jetblue. the airline. ari wauld of oppenheimer on the technicals. david seeburg, cowan and company on the fundamentals. ari, how does jblu look to you? >> brian, they say the trend is your friend. and for jetblue, that trend is higher. i think the stock's going higher. looking back at the chart, here's what i'm seeing. it's done a great job respecting its rising 200-day moving average. i think through this uptrend over the past few years, you have a tremendous amount of momentum behind it. i think it continues to carry shares higher. looking to

. >>> and rbc initiates the outperform. >> that is not helping the stock.is widely down half of 1%. the price is $30. this company is undergoing transformational change than at any time in its 122-year history. the stock has been underperforming this year. the fourth worst performer in the dow. one of few that is down year to date. >>> and this is your under the radar name. unit corps. >> it is a $57 target with a 20% upside. you keep in mind, as you might say, this is a $70 stock back in july. it is now $45. the price target is well above the stock price and still well below where it was. >> now keep in mind the australian accent. it always comes out british. >> what is going on here? >> this is awesome. >> that's how we were in the convict days. we have come a long way since then. >>> and now will hp's stock turnaround? i want to start with you, robert. this was a giant company. they are splitting up. they are still going to be very big. do they lose something in becoming smaller? >> well, the company will tell you they don't because instead of being a $1

liz: the apple watch, you don't think that that, like rbc put out a note today believing that could addevenue when it eventually comes out. you're not interested in fact bringing that in, andy? >> i do factor that in but the problem is 10 billion in revenue couldn't compare very favorably what the i phone generates in both revenue and gross profit. so it will have to do i think quite a bit better than 10 billion to make a difference. liz: amit, why do you in light of what andy pointed out do you really still like this name? >> i say a couple of things. actually the iphone is the foundation of this company but we still see plenty of tailwind ahead on iphone. pretty impressive lead times are six or six plus haven't come down and phone has been out well over two months now, right? i think demand continues to surprise everyone on upside. compounding dynamic is two things. one, typically apple troughs out of gross margin basis in first quarter iphone launch. that is behind you of the as you go forward you get better gross margin on the model than you see typically. iphone comes out in -- iwa

rbc capital markets will join us, emphasizing record highs in the dow.markets doing so well worldwide. a will also for that into discussion of the elections. yesterday, the pageantry in the east room of the white house. phil mattingly with a tart question to the president. the president reacting. join us fromill foreign affairs magazine to take the domestic ballet and take it over a broad and all of this coming as the president travels to china next week. >> that will be a big focus for us here. everyone will be on that. thank you so much, tom keene. barclays ceo antony jenkins is the bank will have less top paid workers in the future. he spoke to bloomberg about the investment banking revamp, and much more, in an exclusive interview. believe in pay, we paying for performance and we are able to do that as we reposition the business. of course, as we make our investment bank more focused, that means we will ultimately have less heightened paid -- higher paid people, but that is in line with strategy. >> job cuts. we heard earlier from a higher into parts

general electric started as an outperform from rbc. major changes should bring value. investors have been waiting for that a while. down about 0.1%. walmart down 0.4%. home depot, the data breach which happened earlier. retailers. you were talking about tiffany. strong numbers out of north america. stock up 3.4%. gap signed a deal to distribute some of the clothes. dsw stock up 3.12%. campbell soup focusing on faster-growing segments up 0.2%. saying higher input costs here impacts earnings in 2015. that comes on the heels of other companies including fresh markets. dow holding on to a slight gain up about 12 points. >> good to have you down there, mary thompson. let's get to rick santelli. >> not only is that key, it isn't a big surprise to many traders ideal with. it's clear. yes, we have better than expected second revision with regard to gdp. first revision, if you want to get technical. we did pop-up a couple of basis points. we didn't hold it. the two day clearly shows that. as carl pointed out, we are slipping below 230. we haven't settled under 2.30 since octobe

joining us from phone, rbc capital market analyst nik modi.thoughts on the price of this deal. looks like berkshire is going to contribute $4.7 billion in stock. p&g is going to get $1.8 billion in cash. is that a fair price for duracell? >> berkshire is paying nine times ebitda for duracell. proctor will only get seven times ebitda. i think a nine times multiple is darn good. i would say certainly higher than what i think a lot of people thought the battery business would go for. >> are you surprised to see buffet stepped in here as a buyer? a few weeks ago, p&g said duracell will spin out. didn't seem like they had a buyer. >> we've been of the belief private equity and berkshire hathaway would be in the battery business. while the category may have challenges right now, it's a good margin and cash flow business. there is a lot of overcapacity. there is a lot of cost-cutting opportunity going forward. it seems like the perfect fit for philosophically how berkshire thinks on assets. >> it's been a weak category. it was the worst hit of all th

let's bring in rbc's chief international economist. question with japan, if you look back since abenomics started, nikkei is up and japanese yen down almost 40%. are those trades intact? >> i think they are but getting more mixed. when i step back for japan, it seems abenomics delivered part of the aspiration. these two quarters moved more quickly. profits have soared, which speaks to the stock market. there have been some victories. those victories seem to be fizzling a bit lately. i've got q-2 gdp which is weak and a fairly uncertain future begin reforms that aren't happening now. it's important to recognize q-3 gdp number was odd. my suspicion is we'll look back and recognize just as the u.s. q-1 figure was ultimately not reflective of the broader environment as the european q-2 number wasn't reflective, i'm suspicious about that third quarter number. we see retails sales rising, trade numbers getting better. it looks like jp should be growing. >> that is an interesting take. japan is the third biggest economy. we have plenty of bus

notably, rbc and others trying to do away with the maker taker premise here. do you think that's where this is going? in other words, are we making needed reforms to the equity market structure or no? is there no problem at all to reform? >> absolutely. we have been making many reforms and that's proceeding but interesting to mention iex, flash boys are backing away from the boy and main characters of the book and called it sensationalized and salacious and the flash boys is. it's dead wrong and detracted from the real policy debate we should be having. >> have you seen a change in the tone of the market as a result of michael lewis? >> we have seen, bill, and it wasn't just from michael lewis' book, of course, because we have seen prosecution of firms, athena trading and a bunch of others doing spoofing and loading the market with bad quotes. >> pulling them at the last second. >> yep. any ways to be out there to manipulate the market. these were things done way before the flash boys book came out. the fact to shine a light on it, great. make those bad player

it doesn't apply to electronic rbc communications, but also doesn't apply to federal criminal law, whichs why google, facebook, twitter all have to care about child porn lost because it doesn't write them a blank check for that we can all agree that is a good team. what i want to emphasize his fault is true we have to care about unintended consequences sleeping too much speech, we also have to be worried about that. that is true of every single law. there's no such thing as a law that doesn't sweep and dissenting were not going to lay sleeping in. the question always has been to not than the contacts but also criminal law generally unbalanced on republishing more good with this plot than bad interest to suggest or have a response, if there's any time you suggest to someone they may not be able to disclose what they want to disclose, that means a disaster for us as a democracy with the internet hasn't proven to be true in many contacts in many contexts and when we can take that we've discussed already is the nca noticed taedown has been going on for some time. many people were convinced w

joining us is bk asset management and rbc capital markets. good to see you, ladies. ladies. winter that we're seeing really help oil prices at this point? >> one of the reasons is we've had had better numbers out of china. 18% growth year on year. so you've got to be watching for the demand numbers. i think expectations are starting to be built in. if we do not get an opec cut, it will drag it down a leg. >> the narrative i've heard is this. even if opec has an agreement, we know that nearly everybody in opec is incentivized to cheat so it would be meaningless. >> it would be on saudi arabia, kuwait. i think they have to cut later on in the year if we don't get a price pickup. but now the expectation is there. >> all right. kathy, let's talk about the dollar which has been so strong. one of the reasons why oil has moved lower. huge run-up in the last few weeks in particular. >> i think there's a correction in the dollar this week. first and foremost, even after friday's report, you still see significant demand for u.s. treasuries. i think for this relatively light data week,

futures group and author of "morning grains" and on silver we have a precious metals strategist at rbcal markets. mostly silver follows gold and gold can follow the central banks and whatever is happening with the dollar. maybe not so much with sugar. but that's the way silver moves, isn't it? >> i used to trade both. as a matter of fact, i was on the sugar cotton board at one time. but i spent 30 years trading the special metals and that's my specialty. by the way, today i'm wearing my silver cuff links. i want you to notice that. bull and bear silver cuff links because i believe silver probably has a very good chance of out-performing next year when we start our inflation march. >> what is the typical ratio of gold to silver? >> usually somewhere between 50 and 60, but lately it's been running about 74. and that's kind of high. and i think we've had an awful lot of money flowing out of silver futures at some point. because gold moved to equities. gold moved to fixed income. and so as the money flowed out of gold, silver followed. but now there's a lot of different things going on. fo