paul: richard clarida there with david westin on friday. decisions are expected in asia this week. we have got the r.b.i. meeting in australia, reserve bank as well, thailand and the philippines on the slate. we will watch out for commentary on how impacts with the coronavirus is affecting thinking. joining us his the mizuho head of economics and strategy. when you look down the list of central bank meetings, which ones are most likely to move? vishnu: we have a non-consensus view that the bank of thailand will cut rates. that is one of the banks we think will move this week, the other being the philippine central bank. it is a consensus be of. the have got the space to cut and have been flagging for a while that they will. inflation is contained in it has got downside risks to the economy coming from the virus on top of weaker growth. i think they will cut. .t., they willo consider tourism and tourism from china plays a big part in the domestic economy so they would not want to accentuate domestic fragility. also the fiscal stimulus that w

richard clarida says the virus is likely to have "a noticeable impact on chinese growth," at least inhe first quarter. nejra: london spot -- stock exchange cash purchase is facing delays due to deeper than expected scrutiny by regulators in brussels. a full notification of the deal has been postponed. they agreed to buy the financial data provider last year. bloomberg lp, the parent of bloomberg news, competes to provide financial data. manus: growing violence in india's capital has left 17 people dead. that's as the right-wing hindu groups began attacking mostly muslim protesters. they were demonstrating against the country, the new religion-based citizenship law. police have ordered to shoot rioters on-site. delhi inlence in new nearly three decades. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. coming up, too soon to speculate. fed officials will not rush to judge the impact of the coronavirus on the u.s. economic outlook. we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybr

friday, richard target -- richard clarida speaking here in new york.earing taken place in a moment for two white house bed to the other one a bit more complex. i just want to gauge for you. place, would it shape anyway or form? >> clearly everyone take the lead and fall in line, so i'm not worried about it. >> i would not challenge the independence. or moreaturally hawkish dovish and i think that is a focus of mine. -- mind. >> with u.s. deficits as they are, they have to look at the real-time borrowing costs for the u.s. and if we keep the yield low, that keeps the u.s. economy stable. >> your thoughts on where policy is going? why there has to be a massively high bar. havethink we are going to a few months -- a few months of rate cuts. androwth continues to hover the coronavirus is contained relatively shortly, i don't think the fed will be up against the wall for a rate cut. we are monitoring the shape on the front end. it is something the fed is probably trying to consider. >> i don't think you'll see a rate cut this year and i think growth will be

friday, fed vice chairman richard clarida speaking in new york.h me for final thoughts are james keenan, peter tchir, winifred cisar. a hearing taking place for white house fed picks. one is going ok, the other one is more difficult with judy shelton. i want to gauge you as market participants. if judy shelton got a place on the federal reserve, would your thoughts about fed independence change in any way? peter: i don't pay attention to what they say anymore. i'm not worried about it. james: i wouldn't challenge the independence. the bigger question is, those who are on the fed or any central bank, are they more naturally hawkish or dovish? that is more of a focus of mine than independence. winifred: i think it comes down to the fed motivation and what they are looking at. with the u.s. deficits ballooning where they are, they have to look at the real-time borrowing costs for the u.s. if we keep yields low, that makes the u.s. economy a little more stable than otherwise. jonathan: let's wrap things up by talking about the federal reserve and wher

if you listen to richard clarida in the previous program, what he said was asset prices aren't the concernthe fed. they're more concerned about economic fundamentals, distributive those economic fundamentals, but it has to be in the back of their mind, that the more they ease, the more risk-taking there is. jonathan: i'm off-camera laughing because we all know the monetary policy has been through financial conditions. if they seize up, they respond. kathy: and i think that's what the market is looking for and expecting that the fed will step in, and the requirement is financial conditions have to get tight. i don't think, absent a big decline of the real economy, that they're necessarily going to move. if you see financial conditions conditions move, they're going to assume the real economy gets worse. jonathan: the problem investors have got, its value, where'd you get it from? we're going through a growth scare where we had a ford multiple on the s&p 500 at 19, and credit cycles were tight on high-yield. let's talk about tesla a little bit. that credit ranking, that maturity, coupon at 5

richard clarida saying nothing. christine lagarde pretty much saying nothing. the central bank in south korea, at the epicenter of this, does not cut interest rates. what do you think is holding them back? subadra: i am sympathetic to their position. they are in a very tough spot. this is a classic supply-side shock. it is hard to justify that monetary policy will really move the needle when it comes to providing stimulus. but the market is already pricing in for cuts. the one metric we track closely is the first fed funds contract. that has inverted. typically, any time it inverts beyond, say, 25 basis points, the fed has followed through and delivered a rate cut. now, that curve is a close to -50 basis points. it is almost certain that the fed might have to act, because, in the last three decades, any time that part of the curve has inverted, the fed has followed through and cut rates. jonathan: let's put it couple of these things together. when it comes to the efficacy, which you have touched on, do you think that is what is holding them back? the nature of

tom: i have to go back to your comment on the vice chairman of the fed, richard clarida.e zero bound. in traditional monetary theory, including 25 years ago, can that be operative as we come down to the zero bound? tony: it is increasingly difficult, and this is what the main paper at the annual monetary policy form -- we think a cut in interest rates to zero and forward guidance, meaning what will the fed say about the future of interest rates, to make promises. they will make certain promises that compress interest rates, thethird, qe, these are only tools that remain to think about guiding banks and their own money toward esg. tom: this is so important to talk about the toolkit from years ago and we are basically out of tools. i want to do a market check at the break. the correlation, less equities. futures are down -11 but it is about the 10 year bond and the 30 year bond, 1.92%. renminbi backed up and gold up dickstein dollars. this is bloomberg -- $16. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ demand andth a supply shock. it affects trade and services. it is internal and extern all. i

. >>> our colleagues will be discussing the latest fed minutes with vice chairman richard clarida today0 cet. >> they won't the most exciting fed minutes but i think it is interesting that they are watching the coronavirus very, very closely but that the market is still pricing in an interest rate cut they've said, look, we are happy with wear interest rates are the market wants them to cut rates to support markets, which is the same theme. that is the look ahead a quick look ahead for u.s. futures. the hand overhasnover hasn't be positive that is it for "street signs." >> i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. you're doing more to keep your body healthy for the future. shouldn't your toothpaste do the same for your mouth? future proof your whole mouth with new crest pro/active defense. its active defense technology neutralizes bacteria to shield against potential issues. crest. >>> it is 5:00 at cnbc headquarters it is your "five@5." hitting the pause button china takes new steps to help shore up its economy over that coronavirus

richard clarida speaks at 3:00 eastern in washington. .9% nonetheless. in the main, we are lower.balance of free viewing tonight's democratic debate. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, we are in hong kong on the spread of the coronavirus. gina martin adams in new york on what the spread of the virus may mean. and in washington, wendy benjaminson on who will be in the spotlight in tonight's presidential debate. let me real -- let me lay out what president trump said in india. president trump: i've spoken to president xi and they are working hard. if you know anything about him, i think he will be in pretty good shape. and have had a rough patch i think right now it looks like they are getting it under control more and more. david: they say it looks like they are getting it under control. does it look like that way from where you stand? >>

richard clarida joins "squawk box" exclusively as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >>quawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square u.s. equity futures at this hour are, i mean andrew says i call that unch. i basiccally call that unch from new highs. 43 on the dow, five and change on the s&p nasdaq weaker down about 15 points treasuries i think treasuries are important to watch with coronavirus as the yield can't get above 1.6 and i think oil has done okay the last couple of sessions and that is kind of a proxy for global demand and whether there is really going to be a slowdown based on what could be a pandemic. there's oil. oil is almost back to 54 and i'd have to take some solace in the way oil has been acting at least trying to figure >> global economy. as a proxy for the economy is about six degrees of separation but kevin bacon get him in on this we have a deal you're beside yourself with excitement are you going to stay the rest of the day and report on this? >> you know i like deals >> hopefully the other shows will call on you for yo

we heard it from richard clarida couple of days ago like, oh, we need to have some data.s is the kind of thing where you need to look at alternative data to get a real-time feel of what is going on. if you wait for the official data to loo come out with a two-month lag, you will be late. guest: danny makes a good point about fiscal policy. when you look at central banks come up more liquidity will not cure the virus it will not have more people step up right and spend money. what may happen, and they think something you will see a democratic congress and trump agree on, politics aside, you could see middle-class tax cuts brought forward to put money in the hands of people, even if it is nothing more than to shop online. alix: we just had a chart companies.ferent a tax-cut and also fiscal stimulus, central banks, is not going to help microsoft not getting its stuff. nothing can solve that. that will be an earnings revision estimate. all the banks are relating their s&p target. nobody knows what to do with earnings. i have no idea how to value that. guest: on the microsoft

we got further fed insight from vice-chairman richard clarida. >> the u.s. is in a good place. solid growth. historically low unemployment. inflation stable. we left rates unchanged. that was the right call. we think the policy place is appropriate. to support the continuation. solid growth strong labor market , and low inflation. that is the message. >> are we at full employment? it has been robust. the labor participation rate is at the same time not above where , it was before. >> that is a good question. i'm glad you gave me the the opportunity to answer. the powell fed has been open-minded about understanding the benefits to the low unemployment rate, and unless and until we see unemployment rates putting excessive pressure on inflation, we are not prepared to say we are at full employment. a lot of things economists don't know for sure, is what is full employment. we are willing to probe to see how low the rate can go. there are benefits so that. -- there are benefits to that. as our fed listens events have confirmed. >> one thing that came up in the n

abigail: of course, we will be hearing from richard clarida today. to see whether this meets the standard for some sort of emergency. david: many thanks to abigail doolittle. coming up, balance of power continues on bloomberg radio. in the second half hour, we are , toing more with rajiv shah talk about what can be done about income inequality, and how it fits with the presidential race happening as we speak. that is coming up. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪ [ fast-paced drumming ] [ fast-paced drumming ] it's more than just fast. it keeps all your devices running smoothly. with built-in security that protects your kids... ...no matter what they're up to. it protects your info... ...and gives you 24/7 peace of mind... ...that if it's connected, it's protected. even that that pet-camera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that? xfinity xfi can because it's... ...simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] ♪ lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz. welcome to bloomberg "money undercover," a show that provides valuable insight into alterna

our job tomorrow, richard clarida, who will be speaking. be looking to the fed to see if there is anything they can do. abigail: when you spoke to him not long ago, he said if this extends beyond a quarter or two, it could affect policy. david: thank you. coming up, balance of power continues on bloomberg radio. more coverage of the virus selloff. and the interview with the head of the port of los angeles. we will find out how the virus is affecting shipments that his port in los angeles. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. president trump began a 36-our trip to india with talks about billions in weapons deals. 100,000ated crowd of hurt him speak alongside the prime minister. mr. trump says the u.s. will sign military deals with india worth more than $3 billion. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is banking on president trump's middle east plan to bring in the votes of the country's west bank settlers. but he has doubled over his promises to quickly c

vice chairman richard clarida. francine: let's talk about european banking.need to focus on, given negative rates. julius baer setting up to cut jobs. the chief executive of the private bank is letting out a strategy that focuses on cost cuts. meanwhile, julius baer also --pped its target for we are joined by philipp rickenbacher, chief executive of julius baer. can you ask when exactly what kind of bank you want to build. how will julius baer be different five years from now? philipp: thank you for having me. julius baer's strategy is going to be centered around our clients, our enter been a real spirit, and our international presence. it will sharpen the focus on our clients and add more focused, more relevance, more solutions, netop clients and high worth clients. we are accelerating investments in technology to reduce costs. and it will shift focus from a primarily as a gathering strategy into net profit growth. one has cost, that is component, but that is only one component. francine: growth was the driver of the julius baer story over the last decade. w

economy according to richard clarida, the latest signal they won't rush to judgment on the need to cutaret us says it is likely to have a noticeable impact on chinese growth in the first quarter. surprise shakeup at disney. bob iger is stepping aside, handing the reins to theme park chief bob chapek. will stay on as executive chairman through 2021. in bob chapek, we have someone who not only knows the company very well, having run a few really important businesses including parks and resorts, he is also someone we know very well. >> i intend to double down on the same strategy bob has established 15 years ago that have served us so well. i've taken away from bob iger's legacy is get the content right and anything else follow suit. growing violence in india's capital has left 17 dead after right-wing hindu groups began attacking mostly muslim protesters who were demonstrating against the country's new religion-based citizenship law. police have ordered to shoot rioters on-site. it is the worst violence in new delhi in nearly three decades. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quic

richard clarida segments on cnbc this morning before the market opened where the former federal reserve vice-chair, seemed to say the anticipation of rate cuts is not a guarranty. that was enough to sort of dampen enthusiasm, as i stress here, charlie brady our stocks editor and i were talking about this, theres were a lot to pounce on the remarks an hour after he made them seems like a little bit of a leap here. it mixed into the selling sauce. the markets don't need to hear much to sell or trigger something. if they don't know what is happening on the fed front and certainly don't know what is happening on the virus front. as i often say they sell first ask questions later. we'll see. jackie deangelis on the new york stock exchange. with the dow down 265 points. an update. jackie? reporter: we're off session lows. it was interesting around 11:30 the market dropped the first 100 points. people were scratching their heads, asking if there were any headlines crossing the tape, what was causing this and there wasn't a clear explanation. when the second 100 point drop came, one gentleman s

coronavirus in the minutes that come out at 2:00 today and i'll be asking the fed vice chairman richard claridarview tomorrow at 8:30, guys >> that will be really good, steve. i wonder where the market is right now in terms of expectations of a fed rate cut as the economic toll here grows from coronavirus >> that is going to be a key part of the discussion and what the market takes from the interview because right now it is about a 60% probability of a rate cut as soon as july and then that moves up to 80% as the year goes by when you get to december so it is getting close, sara, to being pretty baked in without so far any particular commentary from the fed kind of urging that along except they've said, hey we'll address it when it comes i think all of that is relative to those scenarios that i talked about. how much of what happens with the coronavirus in asia comes over and affects the u.s >> steve liesman, thank you. >> a pleasure. >> let's talk more about the economic impact. our next guest's latest op-ed says the world's second largest economy is coming to a near stand still because of the

richard clarida segments on cnbc this morning before the market opened where the former federal reservecipation of rate cuts is not a guarranty. that was enough to sort of dampen enthusiasm, as i stress here, charlie brady our stocks editor and i were talking about