i want to get to richard clarida.important sequence of conversations today on red bull. i did not know this. a guy in germany figured out a drink in thailand and theernized it, and i guess translation out of the thai. lisa: you always pick up on the important things. red bull. the genesis. mike schumacher saying we may need two or three rebels -- three red bulls come the election. tom: thank you for bringing that up. that shows exogenous shocks. what did you learn from richard clarida? lisa: the idea it is difficult to gauge inflation right now. he is taking a dump or stand. there is it -- he is taking a dovish stand. there is a difficulty communicating what they mean. charlie evans saying they could hike rates before that. he tried to walk that back. a delicate balance. tom: our delicate balance is to tell you it is not about lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, and tom keene. we have to thank all of our economics team led by simon kennedy for literally writing out my questions. how do you spell that? do you drink red bu

vice chair richard clarida joining "bloomberg surveillance" at 8:00 a.m. you do not want to miss it. you talked about the discipline in europe with manufacturing. we will get the read for september in the united states. 10:00 a.m., fed chair jay powell going back to congress with his hands out, saying you guys have to act. they won't act. then we will hear what he has .otentially to do about it we don't get a fiscal package before the election. jonathan: equity futures positive on the s&p 500 this morning, up 16, around 0.5%. a real lift in the european equity market as well. service is bad, manufacturing good. euro-dollar, $1.17. pretty much dead flat. get me a red bull. the treasury market a total snooze. 0.67% on the 10-year is basically where we have closed every day. tom: i guess it is a glimmer of vol in the bond market, but you are right. ,ll of that is secondary including the stronger dollar. even the bloomberg dollar index comes in stronger as well, so you're right. everything is moving except bonds. jonathan: let's bring in victoria fernandez, cr

after our discussion yesterday with richard clarida, we get a reaffirmation on the american labor economy in this hour, claims, and all of the various numbers that come out with it. forget about the markets. forget about the chancellor of the exchequer actually dealing with the united kingdom labor market. it is a question of millions out of jobs. jonathan: permanent job losses as well, and permanent shifts in the economy. that's got to be my big take away, government confronting the idea that perhaps we are seeing permanent shifts in the economy, and they need to allow that creative destruction, the powerful transformation of capitalism to take hold and maybe step back a little bit more. i've got to say, some people will push back aggressively against that and say this is a pandemic, it will pass, and

tomorrow, richard clarida, most important interview.with us, this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. so you're a small bor a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. ♪ jonathan: from new york and london for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "the countdown to the open." 30 minutes

the fed vice chair richard clarida was one of them.id the central bank would keep rates near zero until it hits 2% inflation and full employment targets. >> what we are saying is perhaps in a normal recession, or if we were back in february, obviously be within 2% would our forecast horizon. because of the depth of the shock, the economy has to recover. that recovery relative to last downturn will occur within about three plus years. until we get to that point, overshooting is just an academic point. we want to get the economy to 2% inflation and maximum employment. we think with fiscal support that can happen. >> fund manager after fund manager has said we are at risk of creating an asset price bubble, if not already. how does not figure into when to tighten policy? anfinancial stability is important consideration. we get regular readings on financial stability. we are very attentive and attuned to that risk. it is important to remember we have a dual mandate from congress, maximum employment and price stability. if hypothetically we

we will be speaking to richard clarida later this morning. an exclusive interview you don't want to miss. 1:00 p.m. london time. manus: yes, see whether he is as upset as kaplan was. out $8.4 fed shells billion to buy fixed income etf's. what did investors get? we discussed that on our weekly etf show, iq. 9:30 a.m. laura wright has the first word news. >> good morning. prime minister boris johnson is warning of difficult months to come for the u.k. he appealed to citizens to obey the new restrictions and work from home where possible. the tightening of rules comes alongside tougher enforcement. he told parliament the restrictions could remain in place for six months. >> to those who say we don't need this stuff and we should leave people to take their own risks, i say these risks are not our own. the tragic reality of having covid is that your mild cough can be someone else's death note. laura: president donald trump plans to replace the late justice ginsburg are moving forward. trump plans to announce his pick on saturday. as the race for a

richard clarida agreed with powell.: what we are seeing quite simply is that perhaps in a normal recession or perhaps if we were back in february, then obviously getting to 2% and moderately achieving 2% would be within our forecast to rise, but because of the shock, the economy has to recover. that recovery based to the last downturn will occur within about 3, 3-plus years. but until we get to that point, overshooting is just an academic point. we want to get the economy to percent inflation and maximum employment. 2% inflationy took and maximum employment. we think that can happen. >> fund manager after fund manager has come on the show and said we are at risk of creating an asset price bubble. how does that factor into your calculus about when to tighten policy? richard: that is a good question. certainly it is an important consideration. we get regular briefings on financial stability. we issue a twice yearly report, so we are very attentive attitude to that risk. but it's also important to remember, we have a dual

there is anecdotal data in richard clarida was talking about yesterday.ot have a great picture. the numbers show a slow down even if we cannot believe the headline number. lisa: there is a difference between jobless numbers that are temporary and permanent job losses, which is increasingly the nature of what we are seeing. can you quantify that and give us a sense of why that is such a big distinction? michael: what happened is a lot of people went back to work, a lot of companies reopened and found they did not have the business. we are seeing that in the service sector with restaurants, bars, they have started to close up, people do not have jobs to go back to. a lot of retail bankruptcies. stores closing and people out of work. this will become over problem, something we will look at on jobs day. the number of people and temporary layoff has significantly dropped, but the number of people reporting they have lost their jobs permanently is rising, and that is something the economy has to worry about. -- number of fed officials fed bank presidents were m

you see -- richard clarida. you see it through the data, with equities up 17. the safe haven is convoluted, to say the least, with gold down $22 in the short-term, and dollar stronger. the story of a complete reversal 94.04 weak dollar belief, . sterling was a 26 handle moments ago. that gets your attention as well. it is a most interesting market, francine. francine: it is. i'm looking at european stocks. they are rebounding. i'm also looking at dollar rebounding. treasuries higher. i'm not seeing much to do with europe, but we had a good interview that paul gordon the ecbus, worried that is worried about the temporary powers because they will get a spot of legal trouble. it has not moved euro, but something to keep an eye on. gold slipping. running us to talk about these markets, but also to talk about what we heard in the ecb and the legality of how to do future crises, we're are joined by david riley, bluebay asset management chief investment strategist. i want to kick off with ecb because we had a pretty punchy mersch, ecbth yves executive board never, say

matt: that was the fed chair richard clarida. sounding the alarm on the need for fiscal support.wasn't the only one in the last 24 hours. we heard from charles evans and jerome powell. all signaling more is needed from congress. the prospect of broad stimulus was downplayed by white house economic advisor larry kudlow at a subsequent briefing. sensible, say to you, efficient, targeted measures might be very helpful. i don't think we need another gigantic multi trillion dollar package. byt: we are joined now andrew pease. what do you think about the in and thehe u.s. is reaction of markets? is more stimulus needed? andrew: more stimulus is needed. part of the correction we are getting. [inaudible] we seem to be heading into march again. more stimulus is needed. whether we get it before the election is back in question. we will certainly see more stimulus. not just in the u.s.. light.eading into march that's a nice phrase. how does that translate into market reaction and other assets? the dollar benefited back in the spring summer. the dollar seems to have broken its downtrend rece

coming up wednesday, a conversation with the federal reserve vice chairman, richard clarida.ork, 1:00 in new p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. we are waiting for the speech by the prime minister tonight on a shutdown versus a lockdown. francine, what's the difference between a shutdown down anti-lockdown? francine: a shut down anti-lockdown are pretty similar. this one is different because it sets restrictions on bars and pubs, closing at 10:00 p.m. to avoid those hours. that aer thing is lockdown would imply what we went through in april, may, june, which is a closure of schools, and this is one thing that the prime minister wants to remain open. he is trying to adapt the economy to minimize risk while keeping the economy going and schools open to let kids go to class. tom: what a mess. 1.2807. right now, luke hickmore with us. i want to talk about the great mystery out there. we have a huge bounce back, we are going to get a join norma's -- a ginormous gdp number. how does the standard revenue growth in an adult

richard clarida said the same. richard: we think the additional fiscal support will likely be needed. i think, it is very clear that the cares act, which passed in march was a historic government response to a historic crisis. a thrill that -- a 3 billion dollar package provided significant support to the economy. the economy has made a lot of progress, about 11 million jobs have returned, but there is a deep hole. steve, theng us is portfolio manager. i wonder if you can piece those two things -- those two things together. it seems like there is still a rotation. fed official after fed official are calling for more fiscal stimulus that we will not get. steve: i think we are going to get it, but not before the election, because i think it is a political football, and now you have the supreme court battle that will show us -- that will suck all of the air out of the room. after the election, or in the new congress if one side or the other scores a victory. you will get additional fiscal support. i think it makes sens

needed to sustain the economic recovery, and that also came out in tom's fantastic interview with richard claridace president of the fed. what i'm looking at as well is a bit of -- gold is a bit depressed, and you can see oil holding below $40 a barrel. tom: let's make clear that the fantastic interview was because of lisa abramowicz, who asked him three times about fiscal policy," the vice chairman was clear about the need for fiscal policy. what we have in the data, it is the deepest of the markets. the foreign-exchange market tells so much. janet henry just with us, what david blum has done on hsbc on a resilient u.s. dollar, certainly not a weaker dollar, rings true at least this morning. index,at big country exit em and x china, the number gets your attention. sterling with a little rally off the shock of prime minister johnson's comments. i want to focus on the deterioration of em, where the you look at brazilian rail, mexican peso, and a beleaguered turkish lira. 7.7 one on turkish lira is extraordinary. ed phelps ofour, columbia is fired up. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> janet, we

vice chairman richard clarida agreed with powell. >> what we're saying quite simply is that perhaps in a normal recession or perhaps if we were back in february, then obviously getting to 2% and moderately exceeding 2% would be within our forecast to rise. but because of the depth of the shock, the economy has to recover. and as i said in our baseline that recovery relative to the last downturn will occur in about three, three-plus years. but overshooting is just an academic point. and we actually want to get the economy 2% inflation. and along with fiscal support that that can happen. >> meanwhile, fund manager has come on this show and said we are at risk of creating an asset price bubble if not creating it already. how does that factor into your calculus about when to tighten in policy? >> that's a good question. financial stability is always an important consideration. we get regular briefings on financial stability. we issue a twice yearly report. we're very attentive and attune to that risk. but it's also important to remember, lisa, we have a duel mandate assigned from congress

we spoke with richard clarida yesterday, a complete class act. great.oes he or the people around him, do they care about financial repression? kathy: i would say no. they look at the policy of the fed as being better for the greater good, and that is not going to change their policy. they think that savers and investors, although we hear a lot of complaint about low interest rates, savers and investors are benefiting from the rising risk assets, and their focus is really on unemployment. tom: i think this is an absolutely fundamental condition. we talk all of this theoretical mumbo-jumbo while retirees and others are getting absolute crushed well over a decade. jonathan: this is really important, that these interest rates have been low for a long time, not just in the united states, but also in europe. the lower they have gone in places like japan, they have never gone back up again. do you worry about the same thing happening in america? kathy: yeah, one of the biggest fears we have is something like japanification, where we get stuck in a deflationary

fed viceat was the chairman richard clarida speaking with bloomberg.hit the street as lawmakers decide on ways to amend the constitution. we get the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: protesters in thailand are planning to hit the streets again as lawmakers are set to vote on thursday on a path to constitutional changes. let's get the detail from our reporter. what is being discussed in parliament this week? does this potentially -- the anger we see on the streets? pathwaysre discussing to amend the constitution. demonstrators are calling for more democracy and less power for the monarchy. both the house at the senate will vote later tonight on various proposals to set up a committee that will recommend changes to the constitution, which is written by a military appointed panel after a 2014 coup. over the weekend, about 50 million demonstrators gathered -- arew hundred protesters expected at parliament later this afternoon. shery: you mentioned the constitution was written by the military. what a card -- parts of the texts are protesters against?

do not miss our exclusive interview with richard clarida, later at 8:00 p.m. hong kong time. is sticking with forecast of years of zero interest rates, pledging to continue its historic asset purchase program through the covid crisis. the bank's governor spoke with bloomberg from stockholm. bithings are improving a compared to our view in july, but when it comes to doing more order doing this -- or doing less, we have decided to expand our balance sheet substantially earlier so there was no need to to those various programs this time because basically, to the extent we are comfortable with the expansion going all the way until roughly the summer of 2021. >> given covid is resurfacing, do you see risk for new setbacks, and how would that affect your policy going forward? stefan: everybody is wondering about what is next. case, imports and exports are roughly 50% of gdp, and that means that whatever happens in the rest of the world, it will hit us in one way or the other. in a bad scenario, that would probably force us to do more. areou still say that you open to using negative