. >> let's check in with rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. od morning, carl. a day made a difference in a logical fashion, you know, yesterday we actually saw yields go up after a 7% drop in new home sales but today the disappointing durable goods and revisions as you could see on the intraday chart for tens. but it wasn't only tens. bunds looked the same and gilds looked the same. i want to caution i always like to point out the nonseasonally adjusted as well as the numbers released which are seasonally adjusted and normally with durable goods it's, you know, yin and yang. if the numbers are good the nonceasally adjusted is usually not. today the headline number wasn't very good and the internals weren't very good but if you looked at nonseasonally adjusted, much better. just to put that out there. if we want to open a chart up for tens i think it's important to keep scores i don't think it's possible for the price to taper, because we've got stimulus from various central banks but nonetheless, go back to may 1st the score's basically up 115

thanks, bob. >>> for more on the markets let's get to rick santelli in chicago this morning. the most important trying to make strategic trading decisions. supply and demand is one of them and risk versus reward is the other. i want to explore both of those dynamics with our special guest, hi, chuck, and happy new year. >> listen, supply and demand, whether you're looking at the treasuries which the fed owns trillions of along with mortgages that are not going to be trading any time soon or all the buybacks going on in the equities. supp supply/demand goes a long whey to explain the anomalies, interest rates, level of stocks in the economy. tell me what trimtabs and some of the number crunchers such as yourself have discovered about the flows in the mutual funds and etfs about buybacks. >> well, as we've said, all there is in the stock market shares of stock and money flows in and out of checking accounts. earnings have never academically been proven to predict stock prices but supply and demand does. so far this year there's been, believe it or not, very little new money goin

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme after a ten year auction that got a hook. how's the market doing now? >> it was a hook and if you look at the ten year chart, you will see we're up five basis points. here's what everybody i asked on the floor answered indirectly. if you look back to the july historic lows, since then, we have only had two, yes, only two actual closes where 70% cash dealers had a 3% handle. this may be the third. that speaks volumes about how infatuated we are with 3% and investment grade corporates, we had ten deals at $12 billion yesterday. we have five deals looking to be $6 billion today. g.e. capital corp figures prominently in today's supply. back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> forget the nsa. auto makers are now tracking you in your car. we will explain that one and explain what it may mean. >>> plus, microsoft narrows the ceo search but one thing is for sure here. mulally is out. who's in? we'll tell you. [ female announcer ] who are we? we are the thinkers. the job jugglers. the up all-nighters. and the ones who turn ideas

let's go over to chicago, cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange."e on my mind. that famous french economist that put forth the notion that breaking windows may have a near term effect but it really isn't a good thing. i think today watching the president of the national bureau of economic research on our air commenting on that old cash for clunkers program that was signed into law an enacted and put into place in the summer of 2009 really got me thinking. and one of the things james potter said, cash for clunkers did manage to get more people purchasing new cars. okay, i don't have a problem with that. but much independent research has been done since and here's another vision of how that all worked out. the program increased new vehicle sales by about .36 million applying at approximately 45% of the spending went to consumers who would have purchased a new vehicle anyway. our results suggest no gain in sales beyond 2009 and hence no meaningful stimulus to the economy. but i think it's worse than that, okay? i understand that those were trying times

>>> let's hop over to the cme and check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange, hey, rickcouple of things from the jolts, job opening and labor turnover report. we finally crossed that very magic 4 million mark and it's the first time i believe since march of 2008. but something else, and, of course, we -- you know, we have so many great viewers, they pointed it out as they send me e-mails, i'm sure, like they send you. the quitter rate which was up 1.8% is basically at a five-year high. why would the quit rate be so important and be such a positive that everybody's a bit excited about it? think about it, if you're in an economy where mobility with regard to your job is not very promising, if your skill sets isn't going to find you opportunities elsewhere, you're going to be hunkered down. so, to see i guess, you know, feeling your oats as a worker to see that quit ratio go up, that percentage go up, really may give us a glimpse into a part of a healing process within the labor market. of course, the other part of that, and it gets you tied down a house, is it upsi upside-

rick santelli's at the cme group with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, sara, and thank you.morning globally. let's highlight them and what the market's response was and maybe some reasons why the market responded as it did. all right. we look to china. their pmi under 50 on january preliminary. obviously not a good issue. switch gears a bit and let's look at the euro zone, 53.9 and 2 1/2 best on their pmi euro zone aggregate. how did the markets respond? well, on the one hand what we saw response was in the fixed income markets. we saw yields, treasuries, gilds, boons, all move lower. weakness, it wasn't showing up in europe's data today, obviously it was driven by china. if we look at what moved on the euro zone number that was positive it was the euro currency. as of the most recent data, as of 2012 if you look at exports of good and services as a percent of gdp in the euro zone it was shy of 27%. similar number in china. look at the u.s. so, what i think this data means you want to pay attention to the euro currency because it's about exports. when you talk consumption, y

seema mody joining us from the nasdaq and rick santelli from the floor of the cme. thoughts. >> i'm not so surprised. i'm not really sure people should be so surprised. the market has been struggling. no real reason to move higher. we keep hitting our head at 1850. they keep talking about how earnings are great. in fact, we've had some real big misses in the names that really mean something, right. some of the big industrial names we've had some big misses. so in time, i think people are starting to really digest these earnings and what it really means. then you have the fed suggesting that maybe next week they're going to taper even more again and that clearly makes people nervous. then throw in that negative chinese data this morning, and it gives people a reason if they were on the fence, a reason to make money off the table. as you know, this wasn't panic selling by any stretch. it wasn't like people were throwing everything out in the kitchen sink. they weren't doing that at all. it was, you know -- the market was under pressure for sure, but it was not a panic

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.doing better. what we can't predict is will it be in a straight line, a nice even glide path? will it be a 25-degree upward glide path, 30 degree or continue to be somewhat bumpy as some of the strength we observed in 2011 with gdp later to be followed by weakness. i can't answer that. governments can't keep spending like it's 1999. now, comments made before this first cabinet meeting for 2014, president obama said the following. and this was in regard to unemployment benefits. he said, put it on the screen. i think we all know that there are a lot of hardworking americans out there who are desperately looking for a job. and it's also good for our economy as a whole and will actually accelerate our growth. okay. let's take a couple of points there. first of all, we understand it's not only in america. there are a lot of hardworking people around the globe who would like to work who are having problems finding work. it seems to be a skill mismatch but maybe that oversimplifies. no matte

rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> thanks, david. look at intraday, two day of tens, rates have moved higher but the two-day especially shows us that in the context of the way we traded friday, we are still in the thick of that range. if you open the chart up, this is fascinating. as you open the chart up to november, what you should garner from this chart is the apex on the right side the beginning of the year. yields have been moving down. it isn't just here. look at a bund. start all of the other sovereign ten-years back to august. see what the apex is, yields down. yields down. but the next one is interesting. spanish, even though yields are down they've turned up on the greater context of the chart. they've made serious progress. just like the italian ten-year. but the problem is, look at italian banks, how they're trading today. look at spanish banks, see how they've been trading. an issue of last week isn't about end of the world, it's about the new world and how things like banks that don't look very good on paper could be in

rick santelli join us from the cme group in chicago. rick?hat the ten year is idling at lower yields. now, granted, we haven't had a huge rally pushing the rates down but the intraday and open the chart up to december and ultimately further back towards october you can see we're hovering very close in the zone close to three-month low closing yields. if we consider that most of this really is about the yield curve at the moment and most of the talk has been about the steepness of the yield curve, well, that hasn't been true for a while. whether you look at fives to tens hovering close to a 4-plus month tight. tightest it's been in the separation of those yields or two to tens which was thought to be fait accompli and remained very much anchored on the short end we see a 2 1/2 month tight on twos to tens, this is something to pay attention to. we know that the street likes to be long the intermediate part of the curve and the five has been under the most pressure even though all rates have been rather sticky but drifting southbound. the dollar

let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli at the cme. carl, how you doing? everybody, of course, likes to watch how markets respond after a fed meeting and especially after a fed meeting no matter how telegraphed it is. telegraphing isn't necessarily the issue, you know, we have sportscasters and then we have games on the field. the game on the field's where i'm standing. now, interest rates moved up a bit on a better-than- -- well, i don't necessarily think better-than-expected gdp, but a solid gdp report nonetheless, many that i talked to think there's a lot of pull-forward so, of course, it will just make eventually in several months when we get our first look at the current quarter that much more important. now, as you look at a two-day you can see it's a little different story. rates up today, but still not overtaking some of the areas on the chart from before the fed statement and announcement. opened it up to november 1st, you can clearly see we're still toying with levels we haven't seen since mid to third week of november. switch

rick santelli is at the cme. what does it look like? >> c-plus on the grade. 32 billion in two year notes at the screen, not a lot of volatility in the one issued market. the offer side was 38 basis points. that's where we price, 38 basis points. the ten auction average on bid to cover, $3.30, chasing every dollar's worth, securities available by the treasury. that was exactly what this auction was. 28.5, close to ten auction average. on indirects, 22.4, almost smack on ten auction average for directs. dealers take slightly less than 50%. c-plus and no auction tomorrow. on thursday, due to the fed meeting, we get both fives and sevens at 11:30 and 1:00 eastern respectively. sue? >> rick, thank you so much. let's go uptown to e.c. and sheila dharmarajan for a market flash. >> the new york stock exchange is out with its list of most shorted stocks for the first half of january, and guess what, after a temporary drop in the last six weeks of 2013, short interest rising nearly 30% from the end of december. here are the most shorted individu

rick santelli.ou're up to date on live cattle and bonds. >>> our partners over at re/code are reporting that microsoft is getting closer to securing its new ceo. an announcement could be coming within the next few weeks. take a look at the chart. shares of microsoft are up over 10%. re/code co-exclusive editor kara swisher has been covering the ceo search. nbc news group is a minority stake holder in re/code and have a content sharing agreement as well. what are you hearing? in reading your article, there were a couple key events you listed that kind of perhaps move this event closer to the end of the month than sooner, right? >> yeah. bill gates is right now in davos. it's a big platform for him with the bill and melinda gates foundation. he released his letter yesterday, an important annual high profile letter. he's there doing that. there was also this week, microsoft earnings come out, another big event. in general, there is a lot going on at the company to also add into a ceo announcement. it d

let's link to rick santelli for this morning's santelli exchange. ing. welcome back, simon. glad you're here. it's nice to have a european perspective in a time when any perspective is good because things are not as they appear to be. you know, this morning i always look forward to steve's survey because you do, it's very important to know kind of what the -- the economist and the analysts are thinking. when you ask will the taper effect interest rates. keep rates low. the funny thing happen tons way to the trading floor and we talked about this before, how many guests on cnbc have said over the years, have to be long equities. it's the only crap game in town. it's the only alley where people are rolling the dice and, it's those logistics that really do price market. so what happens should the world equity gain in the alley slow down dramatically. even if it's only temporary. who fills that void of money investment, where does it go? there's only one game in town when the game in town isn't stopped. that's high quality sovereign. it's the only natura

all right, let's go from stocks to bonds and for that we head to rick santelli over at the cme group . >> good morning. well, data's a funny thing, sometimes it moves in directions that the central bankers wanted, but really don't want. and i think evidence of that is the dropping unemployment rate in both the u.s. and in the uk. okay? so, the unemployment rate in the uk drops close to 7% i think exact number was 17.1. why is that important? because normally that would dictate a certain type of policy change but trcentral banks are going to fight that like ours. but nonetheless, the market responded. the gilt in the uk rates moved up close to 290, over half a dozen basis points. we go from four or five-week low yields to a couple of week high yields very quickly. i told you, the world is definitely globally connected whether it's because of the uk or maybe things like relative value to southern europe but today it's the former so look at how our ten's responsibilitiy e simil similar fashion and you can see the longer-term chart turned up as well. and let's look at spreads five to tens

rick santelli is at the cme. hi, rick. >> hi, carl.es guys that would like to have a sit-down with you and the one comment was when it comes to futures nobody complained when the stock index futures were helping goose all the liquidity on the way up and, as a matter of fact, they're getting more bearish after your comments. because when you pick sides on how a market impacts, it's kind of normal style to the -- to the downside, makes everybody get a bit more nervous. listen, when i look at what's going on in the world, all's you had to do is focus on treasuries, seriously, okay? you look at the 303 close on new year's eve's half-day session and it's all down yields after that. as we look at an intraday chart, closed down half a dozen. and a weak chart down to close to ten basis points on a ten-year note and these are the potentially lowest yield closes since the first week of november. another chart that augers what is going on here is kind of draining liquidity, with a little extra horsepower to the reverse of the carry trade is the f

rick santelli in chicago. bob, to you first. stock market reaction may be interesting because we are at session lows, right? >> we are. that five-day forecast, first five days of the year not looking very good. we are negative on the year so far. take a look at the dow. there you are, sitting not far from the lows for the day. we were just about the same here at the open. i think the important thing is what caught everybody's eye down here is fairly bullish commentary, i thought, overall here. here's what's important. they came out and said economic progress has been meaningful, they came out and said the fed staff continues to forecast significantly faster growth, significantly faster growth, and most participants are now more confident in the economic outlook. if the degree of tapering is determined by economic progress, this would seem to argue for a reasonably fast taper. i think that's probably why we are seeing stocks reacting somewhat to the down side. back to you. >> of course, we are watching a reaction as well in the t

. >>> let's get to the bond pits and rick santelli where the story largely is today. > really largely. listen to labor secretary perez, some traders around, they agree. you know, let the economy do its thing. don't try to control it. but i have one issue. there's 330,000 initial jobless claims. the 2.8 million in terms of continuing claims. we have a governor in new jersey who is not sure what's going on with people he can see from his desk. how does the labor secretary know what those 330,000 people are eating, whether it's bonbons, whether they're watching football or whether they're applying for jobs, okay, he really doesn't. we need to start talking about all the studies out there and claims and how it impacts employment and how did that number impact rates? jim cramer had it! you see interest rates moving down. look at the five, look at the ten. now, let's look at yield curves. i continue to say that flattening really does seem to be correlated with weaker equities because it seems to be pushing the fed. and even with this weaker data, we all know the issue's dece

from rick santelli -- >> asset management. >> something like that. >> erin kelly and i were talking yesterday, we forget how different the mood was last year at this time going into 2013. i mean, last year there was a lot of fear going into the year. this year a lot less fear. you agree? >> yeah to say the least. this year is really the mirror image of 2013. last year we had nothing but a lot of roadblocks to get over between the sequestration, tax hikes and so on. this year it looks like we're firing -- starting to fire on all cylinders and the expectations are significantly higher. >> what makes you so confident the indexes will keep rising from here? >> so the main thing is earnings expectations that's number one. right now we're looking at earnings growth of about 10% for the s&p 500. so, with those kind of expectations going into the year, we still expect us to be in positive territory by the end of the year. on top of that of course we've got gdp growth finally inching up 3% still low inflation. so we see everything looking towards a positive year. >> ken mahoney, you agree? >

. >>> let's go to the middle of the country to rick santelli who joins us from chicago, rick? obviously gaining momentum and you could call it a onetime event, a one-week event, but traders they look at it every minute and they look at it from a fresh perspective and the water balloon is being squeezed, whether it's the connectivity of how money flows in and out from developed to emerging markets and central banks and questionable programs. look at mr. carney at the bank of england forsaking forward guidance. look at a two-day chart of tens and realize we're down ten basis points on the week and down pretty good on the sessions as well. but if you open the chart up a bit, it will be the lowest since about the third week in november. we look at the flattening yield curve tens to twos very significant. this is the market expressing its desires to kind of escape from some of the restraints being put on it by various fed programs and you can see that this is the flattest since about mid-november. but does it end there? no. look at how globalization keeps everything correlated. whe

we want to get to the cme group and see what rick santelli has on tap. g going on in the curve, fives to tens against the performance thus far, and this is over two weeks so the middle of the chart is basically the new year. the dow jones industrial average, maybe there's something here that we're supposed to pay attention to. a flattening yield curve in my opinion is the market pushing the fed along, not only from a taper but potentially when they raise rates. this is something to pay attention to. listen, there's always this ongoing debate forever about main street versus wall street with regard to the economy, how well things are, and there's a big divide there. but it isn't unique to the united states. the ft had a wonderful article about a gallup poll taken about the confidence in the eu leadership and briefly it's good to read. you see it there. but i'm going to give you just an overview. from 2008 spain went from 59% in terms of they think the leadership's doing well to 27%. ireland from 70% to 47% this these are southern countries. they took a boa

jim lowell from adviser investments and our own rick santelli. rick, you're a hired hand like kelly and i. the rest of you, you're bullish. everybody is bullish on the panel today. ka katy, does that worry you here? >> sentiment is the biggest issue confronting the market from a technical standpoint. if you look at the retail investor sentiment polls, they show that investors are too bullish or overly bullish. i would say that their money probably isn't where their mouth is yet. the market still obviously exhibits positive momentum. that's okay when momentum is as strong as it is. >> katy, we should remember as well a lot of people would prefer to see this market pull back and continue higher, almost unchecked. your colleague pointing out in the minutes from the federal reserve's meeting yesterday, they talk about how they're concerned about these markets, if they appear to be overheated. perhaps in that weird way, this is good news. >> well, the market does look like it's in store for more of a pull back in my work. we did see an extreme short-te

. >>> let's move from stocks to bonds and to the cme group in chicago, joined by rick santelli, rick?ok up at the ten year we're down two basis points on the day, down 18 basis points on the year. we settled at the end of last year 303 the high-yield close going back to the summer of 2011. if you look at the ten year boon on the euro zone side, it had a similar pattern even though i didn't find the 830 data all that enlightening, it's the hurdle mentality, sometimes traders wait until the data is out to do whatever move is proactive on their next trade. that seemed to be the case. but let's really take a bigger look. and let's forget that we're looking at the fixed income markets for a minute. but your chart caps on and look at a may 1st chart of ten-year yields and look at a chart on ten-year gilts. it's similar down to the 3%. it looks like a double top. most people that traded fixed income futures only looked at substantial reversals off of double tops and double bottoms. is this going to be the same? we'll have to wait and see but it is something to pay attention to, something str

let's get over to rick santelli live in chicago. >> thank you.on this second day of the new year. >> happy new year. >> happy new year. i want to cover three things, quite simply, the fed is number one. we all know it potentially is that wild card, their balance sheet is potentially a question mark. what are your thoughts regarding the road towards taper, how little, how near, how much it will impact the markets? >> well, you know, people are -- it's way too early to say the impact will not be that big. you know, when it comes to supply and demand, expectations aren't as impactful, so at the end of the year, as the liquidity has still been massive, people won't sit on that as the markets rally into the end of the year, just like they don't sit on mutual fund inflows. we'll have to see until the fed actually begins tapering to see what the impact of the move will be. >> when it comes to leverage, you've pointed out many times in the news pieces, leverage works both ways, and we're all highly aware of how leverage hurt in '08. do you think that the

dollar may not strengthen. >> rick santelli about this anomaly as kelly put it. the dollar rising and gold rising today and ten year still above 3%. >> if you look at rates all you had to do was see the down trade that was going on in the equities because even with all the strange relationships we have in managed markets one reality shown through and that's the self-adjusting mechanism of rates being sensitive to weakness in stocks because maybe it means weakness in the economy. as for the there are, listen once again relative value is the dollar between the euro pound and yen and i'm not sure you can garner the normal fundamental information. as for gold and the dollar ponder this our one guest said hey, we saw interest rates move up and the dollar too but that really isn't the case. when interest rates started to move up rapidly both in may and november the dollar index was actually losing ground. why? because it became more euro strength than dollar weakness. it's the relative value of the currencies that give you a lot less information than you think and as f

people are moving into the bond market and rick santelli tracking the action at sme in terms of the bondand currency market seeing action today. >> moving in and plenty of u-haul trucks available because nobody expected this type of move. it's been all downside in yields for 2014. look at intraday chart of tens, down ten in the tens. and the comp, just in the last three hours comp and a closing basis to december 10th. now november 29ble. closing in on two months. and twos to tens. big yield curve that everybody's watching, flattened to the tune of 231 basis points. all significant. now, want to talk about foreign exchange? look at the dollar index. today alone almost given back half its year. and the main call prit here, depending which of the trading card you're on is the euro is screaming because china's pmi was going south, but we're aiming for canada on the eurozone pmi. tyler, back to you. >> all right, rick. thank you very much. >>> lows of the day on a couple of the stock market barometers, by the way. in the wake of the edward snowden catastrophe, the justice department is suing

if you don't have that in your portfolio, you absolutely should. >> rick santelli, looking at a ten-year as we speak at 2.70. given the way the market as a whole reacted over the last 24 hours to the fed, you think we've gotten it right? you think the market clearly has an understanding about where it wants to go from here forward? and by that i mean both stocks and bonds. >> i think everybody was a bit off their mark because of the notions, the logical notions of taper and what it means when the biggest buyer of treasuries is going to become less of a buyer over time. officially rates go up. the reaction in may was that. by far, the biggest factor we all need to be cognizant of is it really isn't about that anymore at this point. what it's about is stocks. if stocks perform, volatility is going to go right back down and interest rates will stabilize and most likely go higher. if equities move lower, all the sudden treasuries are going to be the love affair again with investors as the buying instrument of last resort. and there's a lot of logistics going on in the here and now in the mar

our own rick santelli is along as well. kenny, to you first. how does it feel down here after the carnage late friday afternoon? >> you know the carnage, let's not overdo it it wasn't carnage in the sense it was a bloodbath. there was a reassessment. today we've had this 20-point swing in the s&p. now we're rallying back. 1788 yshish is a level where it wants to find support. you can feel them wanting to push it back there and try to close it at that level today. but by no means do i think this correction is over at all. i think there's more to come. i think no matter what apple does tonight apple is just one company. i think there's bigger issues that the market has to deal with. >> and we want to hold this thought for one second. do you have any or news on the herbalife story you mentioned moments ago? that stock, of course moving higher by 69%. >> there was some news i delivered that tim ramey the analyst who was wall street's biggest bull on herbalife was leaving it. it looks like he's going to join bill steer ritz. he's one of the guys on

bob pisani, sheila at the nasdaq and rick santelli at the cme. by this one? >> three things matter, the first one historic highs. midcap historic high, small cap historic high and the transports at a historic high. the second thing that's important is volume picked up dramatically. we will do close to 3.8 billion shares at the new york stock exchange. that's the best in two months. historic high was a big pickup in volume. that's like technical analysis heaven. and with a lot of the beaten up groups, the metal stocks have been bad, on china, telecom stocks that have been poor performers, all powering ahead. a very strong rally now. remember something, only 1% off of the highs where we were as we came into today. >> and sheila, same question. over at the nasdaq where yesterday was really a standout, today there were some of the bigger names maybe holding things back a little bit, but what are people saying about what's responsible for this sudden change in sentiment? >> yeah. traders tell me, look, there's a lot to like about this rally. there's a

peter anderson from congress asset management keith fitzgerald, and steve liesman and rick santelli are with us as well. steve, i'm going to start with you. what's the headline out of the fed minutes? how does the fed view the economy right now? >> pretty upbeat and this was before some of the better and upbeat data we have gotten since the fed meeting which was december 18th. as you know, bill, we've been reporting for many weeks that the gdp forecast for the fourth quarter have really risen in that period of time to more like a second half of 3.5% versus second half closer to 2%. so the fed views the economy as -- viewed it as good during the meeting. it's gotten better yet. so the question is whether or not that means a faster tapering. and what i see when i look at those minutes, i think the center of the board remains for a measured cautious approach. look, if things really do accelerate i think the fed will accelerate tapering. >> kathy, here is what i want to know. we've got this better batch of economic data about the best jobs report you could hope for, the fed minutes which ar

. >> we'll ask rick santelli. what do you think? >> sounds good. >> he's part of our "the closing bell" exchange today. so is rich peterson jim schlage, tom doyle. speaking of technology what's the best performing technology stock so far this year? >> in north america we know it's blackberry. >> blackberry. what a surprise. >> after today's performance. >> i'm sorry, i was leading the witness there. rich, what do you think of the earnings so far? they not exactly set the world on fire have they? >> well bill when we kicked off earnings season last week with alcoa, expectations were about 5.8%. now a week later we're at 5.3% for the fourth quarter according to the s&p estimates. what we're seeing it's a trend. energy and consumer discretionary are moving lower. financials and telecom are moving high perer. all in all, next week when they get a clear vision, we have a lot of big names, microsoft, ibm, netflix, proctor and gabl& gamble. >> john i'm curious if people are talking about this energy story and we're now hearing fed official

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. >>> ahead of the fed meeting and the minutes and the decision, rick santelli is tracking the actiont the cme for us. >> interesting day. you have twos to tens flattening, five to 30s steepening, a variety of wiggles. the intraday ten, down four basis points. we made high yields going back to the summer of 2011. at the last trading day of the year, we are down 32 basis points. last time we were down here around 270 was the 26th of november. when it comes to foreign exchange, nothing different. we made all the extremes right at the end of last year on dollar yen which is floating with 102, we were well over 105. if you look at the euro yen, it was at 145 and change. now under 140. so the kerry trade getting rocked. back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> emerging markets shaking u.s. investors. we have been talking about it all week. we are also less than 30 minutes away, 24:38, to be precise, from the fed's latest decision on interest rates. how are positions changing in light of this? >>> and looking for safety in all the volatility? we will tell you about one red-hot sector

rick santelli is tracking action at the cme. >> thank you, sue.ave fun with the thought, how many 3% closes have we had for 2014 thus far? i asked traders before i give you the answer, look at the train day. you can clearly see, no 3% there as we hover just lee bow the mid-280s. down several basis points on the day. closed year the 303. a chart year-to-date. we didn't have any 3% closes in 2014. and there actually has only been several for the entire run. even though intraday violations have been frequent. now, if i look oversea, the big talk in many circles is ray joy and the spanish three-year note auction historic close. going back to the fall of '09. e won't find a lower ten-year yield and it's under 100 basis points difference with our ten year. what can we draw from that? wow. makes a 284 tenure look bit expensive. doesn't it? sue, back to you. >> okay. thank you very much. you're up to dayton 0 the bond market. >>> look behind me, i'm on post nine, behind me he you see all the traders, where new skin is traded. alled, dom told us. it had be

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> i have three numbers for you. five, nine, 30.wn five basis points on the day, down nine basis points on the week, down 30 basis points on the year. there's your ten year. anybody who doesn't think the ten year has been falling in yield more than just the last couple days, just look at the chart. it's been happening for the whole year. look at the two day chart, look at a chart going back to last week in november, because that's the last time we saw a close under this 2 3/4 area. it was even lower for awhile. listen, many traders say watch spanish and portuguese yields. they are moving back up after their stellar drop. that to many signals something wasn't quite right. dollar index unchanged after a wild ride but it still doesn't look very good on this year-to-date chart. back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> finding safety in the selloff. we will give you six stocks to protect yourself right now. >>> plus it is turning into a lousy month for the bulls. also, one of the worst for the airlines. phil lebeau is on the case.

those service sector was a little weak at that point and i would point out it's too bad rick santellithe bond market

rick santelli is tracking the action for us at the cme and covers currency, interest rates, the wholee cover it. that's cnbc. thanks, sue. we had some important data out today, maybe we had a weak jobs report a week ago but it's a bit of good news that we crossed the hiring threshold of job openings of four million, as you see on this chart. close to six years since we have seen it, march of '08. if you look at the two day chart or one month chart of ten year note yields, couple things should jump out at you. we are one basis point down on the day, three basis points down on the week, 20 basis points down on the year, and within a basis point or two of closing at the lowest yield since december. now, if we want to switch gears a bit and look at foreign exchange, look at the dollar index since last friday, the 10th. it's up about two-thirds of a cent. it really is coming into 2014 with horsepower but many thought and still think it's predicate order the notion of higher rates. that hasn't materialized. want to pay close attention to that relationship. tyler, back to you. >> thank you v

rick santelli, where do we go from here on the back of what's happening today? >> there has been no moonshots. whether you look at the dollar index, one slightly positive, now negative, twos, fives, tens, 30s, they are actually now coming down below levels they were at. they were a slow burn, no big ranges. the big activity continues in stocks. traders down here think it's going to be a down 200 day. they think that's why rates are avoiding the upside and when it comes to the 6.5% threshold, the fed statement has a little bit for everybody. in one paragraph they say that it will remain at least as long as the unemployment rate remains near 6.5%. that is the end, they say. not necessarily true. we could have it well past 6.5%. sounds like this new forward guidance, they designed the building, they figured out the threshold but they don't want to live in it, kind of like the bank of england. that's what we're seeing here at the cme floor. >> we should remind everybody, that's zero interest rate policy. we hear that a lot. it's not a mork from ork character. jack,

>> we will check the bond market and we always do that with rick santelli, who is tracking the actione cme. interest rates are holding at much lower levels than everyone expected this time of year. >> they are. it's counterintuitive today because the new home sales number this morning down 7% wasn't very endearing. normally that pushes yields down. you know, it's interesting. most traders i talk to on this floor say don't look at what's going on in the emerging markets, china, japan to some extent, it's a panic situation. look at it more as a global condition. i think that fits better. if you look at a chart of tens, we are up several basis points on the day. year-to-date, chart of ten year yields will show it's all about lower yields throughout the year. we settle at the highest yield level since july of last year when we looked at the 2013 settlement 303. for the moment, whether good or bad, the yen has become the surrogate for the kerry trade. it stabilized, no doubt. a year-to-date chart will show the ugliest part of the trade was the last part of last week. we will continue to mo

rick santelli, isn't it wonderful to see all the current wisdom confounded across the board, corporate bonds, treasury bonds, anything you look at in the bond space is on the upside this month. >> yeah. it's like a 2014 snow globe and everybody is shaking it up and it's not rearranging or arranging like anybody had anticipated. you know, you said it's all about foreign exchange but my question to you then would be why is foreign exchange moving? there's a lot of moving parts here. i still think at the end of the day, if you have a pool with a big round bottom and pull the drain, the perimeter or periphery recedes first. there's your emerging markets. it isn't the reason, it's more of a cause-effect. i think we need to concentrate on we always have a bias in every country, on every network, that we want stocks to go up. so you're looking for big corrections in stocks kind of telling -- like telling your best friend they have bad breath. it's an uncomfortable situation. but it is what it is. sharon epperson always knows what it is at the nymex and she is coming up right now. >> i love ho

rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. >> reporter: wild day down here.eady know that. obviously the jobs report was anything but stellar. it's reflected in weaker rates. that part still works. looking at intraday of tens, down ten points on the day. weekly, we are down an even dozen. look at a one week of fives, they are down ten on the week, they are down eight on the day. and the only, the only currency that is not up against the dollar today is canada. so look at the dollar canada chart. you see the dollar's up. why? you think our report was bad, their unemployment rate in canada went from 6.9 to 7.2. to equate it to the u.s., multiply by ten. not a terrific number. >> ricky, thank you very much. appreciate it. >>> we just want to note that coming up, we saw simon on that cruise ship. later today, on "street signs," royal caribbean's ceo will join simon. you just saw that stock performance. they have had a very good run for the last three months, up better than 30%. ty? >>> before apple shook up the world, the tech industry gave a back seat to design

rick santelli is here tracking the action at the cme. year, ricky. >> happy new year, sue. the first chart tells you why the rest of the charts look the way they do. we're down close to 17.5 points on the s&p 500. you see on that chart. so look at the intradays, 5s, 10s, 30s. look similar? absolutely. that could be something to pay close attention to in terms of a stencil if equities get weak and their impact on fixed income for the rest of the year. dollar-index having a great year. you know it's euro centric because look at the dollar-yen going the other way. the yen having the first kickoff trade of pretty decent strength against the dollar and the developed economy currencies. tyler? >> thank you very much. >>> coming in from the cold. should nsa leaker edward snowden be allowed to come back to the u.s. and be given some sort of plea bargain or clemency? >>> plus, ford creating buzz with its new car. phil lebeau behind the wheel for us. hi, phil. >> tyler, what if you could drive a solar-powered car every single day? you know, never

rick santelli in chicago, thank you for that.wth in the new year. joining us now for his outlook of 2014 is bruce kazman. are you in the camp that is looking for potentially this to be a year of 3% growth? >> i think for the u.s., 3% and i think for the global economy basically an above trend year. it looks to us like we've got an environment in which we've taken out the policy risks both domestically and internationally. we've got our fiscal drags fading. and i think the private sector is in a position where it can really provide a boost to growth as we move forward here. i think all things are set up for pretty solid growth in 2014. i think the question we're going to be focusing on is whether we're actually healing. whether we're actually getting growth that's actually going to provide us with strong investment capital spending, return in terms of the labor supply. things that heal this economy and get us on a more solid longer term track. >> hey, bruce, it's rebecca patterson. good morning. when you're looking at capex, when

rick santelli is standing by. and rick, we were ratcheting things up here.reporter: i think the job creation's definitely improved. and i do think that gdp has improved. i don't think i agree with the levels on gdp. i think even though third quarter was 4.1 and we'll have to wait for the fourth quarter, i think the trade deficit does obviously mark up what expectations are. but let's not have a cause/effective issue as you pointed out with that 250,000 jobs with everybody a few moments ago. you know, the static-type comparisons, if the dollar wasn't taken from one area, moved to another, we don't know how many more jobs or how the economy would have behaved if that dollar was spent in the original earner's line of spending habits and consumption. i think when it comes to the economy, of course we're improving. we're the best economy in the world. and anybody who has any doubt of that, slow recovery but it is gaining traction. yesterday with the trade deficit, i thought that was a terrific number. and i also think the underpinnings of why it was terrific defi

jim kahn from wealth enhancement group and our own rick santelli. we all have to deal with snow except forfeits gerald. katie stockton, you still see in the near term here upside momentum. you're probably referring to the s&p, right? >> well, th keye key really is to look beyond the s&p. the market has been in a consolidation phase for a couple weeks if not more in some cases and that's why you get the mixed returns on the major indices, but that frustration really hasn't occurred as much overseas. i would encourage people to look beyond the s&p 500 at the european equity benchmarks many of which broke out from consolidation phases to new multiyear highs. in some of the emerging markets we're getting some nice oversold markets. look at the philippines and china, for example. we're seeing some nice action overseas and i think that bodes well for momentum catching on again here in the u.s. >> jim, it's interesting but steveste i stefil points out if we rally it will be the tenth time so far. we've only sold off four times. there seems to be an upward

rick santelli.t to you, how likely is it if things are really starting to get ugly out there that the federal reserve changes course? what would it take? >> i think what the fed will do is analyze these events in terms of whether or not they create systemic risk for the financial system in the united states and globally, whether or not we have a potential to impact real aggregate demand. i suspect the answer to both questions would be no. if they were yes i think what the fed would do in that case would be to try to do what it's been trying to do over the past several months which wouldis to lean increasingly on greater forward guidance and stay the course on taper. all of that is a long way of saying i think it's going to take an awful lot to get the fed off of its course of reducing by $10 billion a month. >> i think you agree, greg. let's face it you have to expect some market dislocation when the fed changes its strategy. it's the strategy that got us here and when they change course the markets

and our own rick santelli. gina, one day the financials, we love them, the next day we don't at all. what's going on here? >> look, the markets have been struggling this january trying to create the january effect. but it's just not taking. and part of that is because we went into this january with pes having expanded for the first time in five years. we're on the maybe slightly expensive side. we're not that expensive, but we aren't cheap anymore. what's left? we have to see some earnings. we have so see some sales growth. we haven't seen that. >> jim lowell, at the same time, let's talk about those financials. how important is it to the market here that there's a little bit of a step back with regard to how the market is take numbers from goldman, from citigroup today? >> well, i think the reality is financials play a large role in almost every investor's portfolio. we have seen some bottom-line cost cutting shore up banking earnings recently. but today's numbers, i think, were really driven by a slow down in

joining us diane garnic steve east chris burtleson, rob morgan from fulcrum securities our own rick santelli is with us as well. diane, it's good to talk to you. what do you make of this volatility? is this the way it's going to be? >> i am so happy to have january behind us and over. you know this has been one of the most difficult months. it's been, gosh almost a year and a half since we've had a period this difficult. >> is that -- that's a good thing though right? for the health of the market this thing wasn't going to go straight up forever. >> look it's really important to remember 49% of the companies have reported already. if you think about what's happening, companies are not only giving downward guidance they're also quietly reporting increases in cash on hand. that means it's the sixth consecutive quarter where we have an increase in cash. that has to be good on a go forward basis. what are companies going to do? they can do stock buybacks. they could do mergers and acquisitions or increased dividends. absolutely i think now is a really good time to look at the equity market becau

those service sector was a little weak at that point and i would point out it's too bad rick santelli is not with us today, that the bond market started acting like the bond market used to act, the old normal seemed to be back today when the ism service number came out less than expected, the bonds rallied. that's the way it should work. >> some peculiar moves we should say in the bond market today. stocks weakened as soon as that report hit and that took us from being up 60 points to down 40 as we've had a triple digit swing if you want to call it that. the dow is off just about 5 points. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq are a little weaker, too. >> also, is it time to bet on marijuana stocks. pot stocks. >> be careful of the penny stocks we should be. >> marijuana is legal in colorado and new york governor mario cuomo -- governor -- >> andrew. >> having a history thing going on there. andrew cuomo is moving to ease some restrictions on marijuana use in new york. now, you can argue that the trend is certainly marijuana's trend these days, but we're look to look at how investable pot is rig

joining us kim forest jason pryde,ed to salamon and michael pinto and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, lady welcome to one and all. michael, let me begin with you. i know we'll have plenty of time to talk about the emerging markets and apple. let's talk a little bit about the fed and the likelihood that the fed will continue its taper even if it doesn't, it does seem likely that the federal reserve is going to pull back on its stimulus this year. do you think the markets and the economy can withstand that? >> well no i don't at all. portfolio strategy is now 90% cash. i will be shorting stocks this week or next week. i think the fed has engendered a phony economic recovery based on reinflating asset bubbles, particularly home prices and equities. i think they will be tapering into falling economic strength and i think that ends very badly for the economy, earnings the market. >> todd what's your take? >> well we like to hear expectations. we at schaefer's investment research, we like to go off expectations. it's part of our investment strategy. if you look at -- i think ther