we check in with rick santelli at the cme. rick? >> hi, carl.veryone at cnbc and all our affiliates, our prayers are with all of the passengers on that airplane and, of course, these things are horrible, and hopefully we'll never have to discuss one again. now i'd like to switch gears a bit, which is difficult. like to welcome our guest. chairman of the house financial services committee. chairman jeb hensarling. thank you for taking the time today, chairman. >> happy to be here. >> listen, yesterday if was all about not having a frat party, at least in janet yellen's terms, and frat standing for federal reserve accountability and transparency act of 2014. upon the discussion, and were you very heavy-handed, about the rules-based notion of central banking, and janet yellen, i believe one of her first expressions on this discussion was it would be a grave mistake. can you talk about your question yesterday and her -- not necessarily answer. i actually thought there were a lot of counterfactuals she was using to try to dismiss the notion it would

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> morning, carl. happened with regard to malaysia flight tragedy, and we want to get that out there. we'll switch gears a bit, though, because it is our job to look at the markets. and when i look at the markets today and think in the context of the tragedy and ongoing issues and sanctions with russia, i see the euro versus dollar reaching 135 for the first time since valentine's day. is that the message of the market with regard to the story of the day? >> i think that's part of it, rick, but, you know, as we always know -- you can't help talking about it without talking about gold. people who buy gold on geopolitical events, it's a sorry state. i have the scars on the back to prove it. it does not pan out. once those geopolitical events recede, then the gold drops dramatically because it's a silly reason to buy gold. it gets bought for other reasons. the currencies, the euro is remarkably holding up. >> this could put us close to new lows. 135 considering the state of unemployment and economic activ

more on r & d and with partners. >> thanks. >>> over to rick santelli and "the santelli exchange."rning. >> good morning, carl. a lot of talk, of course, about the federal reserve and basically -- let me move my floatation device. fed's balance sheet as of thursday of last week increaseds 12ds.5 billion to a grand total. look at all the zeros. $4.4 trillion. of course, that's 12 zeros. we talked about earlier with our guest, jeff snyder, whenever you look at a chart of the fed balance sheet there's many that will drought charter of the s&p 500, because it seems to follow. corporate profits follow the s&p 500. we're all floating up with the fed's balance sheet, but what happens when the balance sheet stops moving higher? well, many think you could have a fat tail or a doomsday scenario. i'm not sure. i basically think if everything went up with the fed's balance sheet, when the fed's balance sheet goes sideways i have a feeling stocks may go sideways or a very subtle glide back. but the key to that is, that everything is based on what have you done for me lately? so even if we remai

appreciate it. >>> over to the cme group, rick santelli has the "santelli exchange." >> thank you. last santelli ex-ching of the week. we could knit pick. too many part-timers, who-of-too many leaving the labor force. generically, a good number. 288 blows my number away. the fed pays attention to this. no matter how you slice it, look at it in ra couple bays. first the technical, i think is key. i've said all along, only two areas on the chart to pay attention to. a and b. a, 266, yield close on the 12th of may. 266. the low yield close on the 28th of may, at 244. now, trant day, traded a bit through this. of course, now we stand at 265. if we don't close above 266 on a closing basis on a day where this data is that well, the market is telling us something. figure out what it's telling us. look everybodydon't -- overseas. what is that telling us, the widest level in 15 years. basically close to 130 in a boon. close 265 in a ten year, difference of 136 basis points. that means relatively spre lly we're better than them. growing better than them. we know that. that's the notional arg

rick santelli with today's edition of the "santelli exchange."he first place to start, one hour and nine minutes away from the 30-year bond auction. why is that more important today than any other 30-year bond auction? because i think it's going to give us information. could be a turning point on the day for an equity market that is well off its lows, but also off its best bounce levels. why? it will give us an insights into the psyche of both foreign investors and domestic investors at a time where equities are under a bit a turmoil. contagion, systemic or the fact synonymous isn't necessarily truly snom miss. that's the point today. i would think snom miss ynonymo better way. stabilized is not synonymous with mixed. many over the last year or so looking at europe from the vantage point of stabilized, correct. but stable iilized isn't fixed has darker issues associated to it, because all the things done in europe to stabilize europe, in my opinion, have pulled a lot of the growth that they're not going to get. why? because in essence, they've mo

rick santelli with "the santelli exchange". >> thanks, kayla.e certain things in our society that become synonymous, but they certainly shouldn't be. and i think that what i'm referring to here in an aggressive fashion is how debt and income seem to be interchangeable parts from the vantage point of central banks. i'll give you an idea. a consumption economy and the president early in his first term whatted to convert it into an export economy. i understand why and it's funny. china that is an export economy, doing its darndest to create a consumption economy. the backbone of a successful consumption kpip is that the consumption is paid for with actual income. versus debt. give you examples. the big number we had before was 55 and 30. what those are is, the percentage of subprime in the auto sector. 55% for used cars. 30% for new cars. and i'm not saying whether we're going to repossess these cars or not. i'm just looking a the notion of where the horsepower in the economy is coming from. knop the even talking student loans. subprime for 2013 up

. >>> first, rick santelli, what's coming up?ll, a big number today is 17 ponder that for a moment. we're going to talk a bit about canada's employment report today. a bit surprising. and last, but not least, we're going to actually look at a yield curve trade and see if there's still any gas left in the tank. all, after the break. this "credit report card" thing. can i get my actual credit report... like, the one the bank sees? [ male voice ] sheesh, i feel like i'm being interrogated over here. [ male voice ] she's onto us. dump her. [ pay phone rings ] hello? oh, man. that never gets old. no, it does not. [ female announcer ] not all credit report sites are equal. experian.com members get personalized help and a real credit report. join now at experian.com with enrollment in experian credit tracker. join now at experian.com really... so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 dollars a month? yup. all five of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day.

built for business. >>> now over to rick santelli in chicago. plate this week, rick. >> reporter: darn right, we have a full plate. we love it that way. speaking of full plate, we're going to start out the meal talking to somebody who understands a good cook for data, peter bookfar. thanks for taking the time this morning, peter. >> thank you. >> reporter: is the fed missing a great opportunity? when i look overseas and see spanish ten-year yields where they are in deference to 2.5%, i see boon yields at 113. the notion when we have a tailwind of global low interest rates, wouldn't this help the fed kind of get in front of the curve a bit by using those forces to their advantage? >> i agree. the data itself should be the impetus for the fed to move. the data is moving much faster than the fed is forecasting. we could hit their year-end 2015 forecast on inflation and the pce just within the next three to six months. so the fed is falling way behind the reality of the data. and overseas rates, as you mentioned. >> reporter: do you watch the yield c

. >>> first, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> reporter: we're watching things like plans.o we have an energy plan? do we have a tax plan? we do. we've never adopted any. it seems as though right now the main plan for just about everything is this. and we're going to tell you why and why it isn't best right after the break. the ca♪illac summer collection is here. ♪ during the cadillac summer's best event, lease this 2014 ats for around $299 a month and make this the summer of style. we do? i took the trash out. i know. and thank you so much for that. i think we should get a medicare supplement insurance plan. right now? [ male announcer ] whether you're new to medicare or not, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. it's up to you to pay the difference. so think about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they help cover some of what medicare doesn't pay and could really save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now. with a medic

rick santelli.we return, the man you want to hear from on microsoft. 18,000 job cuts, stock at a 14-year high. back in just a minute. [ male announcer ] we know they're out there. you can't always see them. but it's our job to find them. the answers. the solutions. the innovations. all waiting to help us build something better. something more amazing. a safer, cleaner, brighter future. at boeing, that's what building something better is all about. ♪ at boeing, that's what building something better is all about. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. >>> what a ride it's been for microsoft. new ceo, new cfo, xbox sales doubling, and getting lean

tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. market, as rick just referenced, selling off today on concerns over the european banking systemsystem s specificically portugal. with me, alan reid, ceo of forward and chief investment officer at pioneer investment management. welcome to both of you. alan, you say you wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% to 7% pullback in the u.s. market and, ken, you say you wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally in the second half of the year. maybe those two things aren't mutually exclusive but on the surface they seem so. make your case first, alan. >> first off, what we're saying is that if you look at the vix it's been trading ten to 12 range. historically it's been more in the 15 range. my predictions pay off. we're seeing it right now. what i'm saying, when you think about volatility in the marketplace. we've seen an opportunity to actually buy a bunch of puts in the parkt. cheap insurance. we've done that with a real estate long short funds. and so those have been areas that we're seeing oppor

. >>> first, rick santelli, what's coming up?> reporter: of course, janet yellen talking to both sides of the aisle this week, i think we they'd to discuss some of janet yellen's comments of late, maybe an upcoming article in a magazine that we have some excerpts from, and decide, should the central bank of the united states of america be more like a baseball umpire? should policy and social policy be in their vocabulary? when you go to your accountant on april 14th, do you want him to be talking about social issues or just kind of deadpan look at the numbers and tell me the facts? we're going to discuss this after the break. i make a lot of purchases for my business. and i get a lot in return with ink plus from chase. like 50,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. and i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at office supply stores. with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can

. >> thank you, mary thompson, the bond pits with rick santelli this friday at the cme. hi, carl, on a day not defined by data, actually a week that was not defined by data, the treasury market continues to digest a multitude of factors, not the least of which is the activity in europe and eurozone this week. we're down two basis points on the day as we see in the chart, and open the chart to early february, and a couple things pop out at you. first of all, down 12 on the week, settle at 264, and we are flirting potentially with the lowest closes since the end of may as we bump off low 250s 51. sere that in the your brain, the dollar-yen is now breaking out, dollar disadvantage on this trade to the lowest levels on a closing basis since very early february, and the correlation there has been going on and off debating who is leading who for most of 2014. look at the big alternative market, that is, in fact, affecting us, look at the boons, hovering at 120. big chart going back years plus demonstrates how we are several basis points from potentially testing all-time histori

carl, back to you. >> bertha, thanks. >>> hop overer to the cme group, rick santelli and get "the santellick? >> hi, carl. well, any of you kind of wonky technicians out there? boy, you're going to have to take your list of gdp data and you're going to have to go through it. a lot has changed. today's number. hit the highlights. definitely more than expected. inventories added 1.7. i think that is huge. even the, of course, the government acknowledges that the first look at gdp is incomplete and gets more complete. always lots of revision, but it what it is. i find this fascinating. personal consumption up 2.3. core up 2%. here what i was talking about before. look at minus first quarter that we've had this century. okay? there's been seven minus quarters of gdp in this century. five of those seven have been first quarter numbers. now, if we look at the first quarter number with the second quarter number and average it out, comes out to basically rounding, 1%. now before all of the data, i did research on this topic, and before the data was all revised, q1 of 2011 was minus 1.3, q2, 3.2. n

don't miss that. >>> and over to rick santelli with "the santelli exchange" for us. anks, sara. like to welcome our guest, beaterman, beaterman, beaterman. welcome, chuck. thanks for taking the time. >> good to be with you again. >> let's start at the top. we had a nice jump on the compensation in today's employment cross-index data and offerings out there, and you think it might be the last of the big time offerings. why don't you sggo into both of those? >> $11 billion of new offering today and tomorrow. a huge amount of cash to leave the market. to me that's why we have the main -- supply and demand. all of that money leaving. stock prices of the remaining shares go down. so -- and this is the last of the new offering calendar until september. so august should be a decent month, assuming corporate buying continues and -- beware the ides of september. >> and tying it to a line everybody talked about. underutilized labor market. what i would sassume that to mean, and sure that's not what they meant. i suspect people out of work are coming back soon. the people left a

rick santelli whose rants on cnbc helped kick off the tea party movement ran into a very loud critic this week, steve leaseman at the same channel. >> he basically told santelli that he didn't know what he was talking about and the footage of their fisticuffs quickly went viral. >> every single -- >> would have lost people money. >> every single bit of advice you gave would have lost people money, rick. lost people money, rick. >> strategy. >> there is no piece of advice that you've given that's worked. >> he this need a better strategy. wait until next week -- >> not a single one. >> oh, yeah, there is. >> not a single one, rick. >> not can do his job or his job -- >> the higher interest rates never came, the inability of the u.s. to sell bonds never happened. the dollar never crashed, rick. there isn't a single one that's worked for you. >> ah, my head hurts. could you even understand a word of what they were saying? this is obviously some sort of stunt or ploy or behalf of the economics reporter to bait him. >> i think steve lease man did a good job. i don't think it's a stunt at

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago, rick? >> thank you, david.ket continuing to do what it does most of the year, and the range established in may between the 18 th and 28th. the intraday is lower, fell from higher yields, two-day chart reveals more. we work down in yields, but definitive chart is the chart that's going to focus on the may 28 th closing yield so we'll start the chart on the 19th, see it on the left there. that 244 is significant. very significant. may gives us the reigns. treasury's been in 266 on top, 244 on bottom. the it continues to stay in this soft range. to contrast, we talked about the boon ten year spread. it's kept you out of trouble with regard selling looking for higher rates. look at the chart from the same may 19th date, and there's a much different market as the yield continues to move down and the spread actually is not expanding or -- i should say shrinking as much as it was with regard to the difference in yields. there's no shrinkage at all, hanging around the levels that we should pay attention to on the fives

out after the bell today. >>> and rick santelli is standing by whip "the santelli exchange." rick? of the van titi has to be up there. talked about the 244 yield many times. may 28th, low closing yield, for the year. we've had six sessions that have included the 246 yield, but today we've had the best kickoff intraday coming off that level. it's holding exactly where it should. gdp comes out wednesday, the 30th. our first look, second quarter gdp. i think i bet a bunch of bags of hamburgers it wouldn't be 4%. maybe i need two bags, because it doesn't look like it's going to have a handle. most estimates between 2.6 and 2.9. inversions. everybody's talking about inversions, as well she should. tell you what, if you look at it from the lens, or through the lens of patriotism, i think you're wrong, because i was wrong. here's the analogy quickly. in the late '70s and early '80s, cars made by american car companies were not great cars. but i love my country. and i was just hard and fast buy america! i was wrong. because a real patriot buys the best product. and those who were smarter t

. >>> going to the bond pits standing by with rick santelli, rick?day in treasuries, the epicenter of the digestive process, definitely better than expected jobs data and little discussed drop in the trade deficit. let's start at the top. everyone's talking about the two-year. why? because it gives you a good proxy for the markets for the times of the federal reserve, and even though briefly looking at the chart going back to may of 2011, and you renched it, david, the 35 53 points and the chart moved right, it's now september of 13, but we want to watch it. april 3rd of the five years since these yields. next chart, the tens, april 29 since being here, and more important, may 12th, 266 yield close. if we close above that, it's very meaningful. if we don't, people selling looking for higher rates will be disappointed. years to date on tens minus twos, it's steepening, counterintuitive, and index after all this is up a quarter cent on the year. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. >>> coming up, breaking down dow 17,000. plus, hurricane

rick santelli, "the santelli exchange. >> hi. in the frame. making progress here in chicago.en, we're making progress on the economy as well. i talked to peter bookfort today. i give credit to a real straight shooting economist. when i asked peter, what i hear from so many of my sources, how far do we use our shovels to dig into economic data? and his answer actually was a good answer. keep it apples to apples. seasonally adjusted data, whether looking at jobs, you know, various economic data points, that it is very much contagious right now to dig deeper than we used to, because so many things just aren't adding up quite right. now, today we are getting a big correction. the fact that the nasdaq is leading it does make some of my training sources a little bit happy, because that seems to be where the most whipped euphoria happened to have been residing in that sector, but look at friday. 288,000 jobs. look at the jolts report today. granted, there are issues. 19% year over year may to may on the job openings, up 19%? that isn't bad. 15% on quits. why is that good? because if

built for business. >>> over to the cme and rick santelli. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.me my special tuesday morning guest, jeff snyder. thanks for taking time this morning, jeff. >> good morning, rick. how are ya? >> excellent. today's the first day of a two-day fed meeting, and i think it's state of to say that for the last five, maybe even six years, the fed and central bankers in general have recal bralted the global economy in many different ways. do you think that this recalibration, like, the morning cup of coffee, some people who need a drink, a cigarette, is it going to be easy to just recap brrecap -- recalibrate this back into the road of normalcy? >> of course not. in fact, incredibly difficult. if you go back, we've been under a, quote/unquote, stimulus regime the past seven years. first a monetary stimulus in october 2007. to undo seven years of persistent manipulation and intrusion will be incredibly difficult, not the least of which, the invedable size of the fed's footprint in the marketplace. >> if i really pushed you and said, okay, listen, jeff what i

rick santelli, what is the auction doing right now? >> $35 billion of five-year notes just hit the streets. the grade on this auction demand wiz is strait up. a-minus. very solid auction. the yield 1.72. the offer side of the one issued market was 172 1/2, the low yield in the one issued market was 169 1/2, so this was super sold, 2.81 bill to covered trumps the 2.72 ten auction average. better than average on indirects at 48.2. 25.9 on directs, best since december of 2012, which means the dealers -- what did they end up with? dealers took a significantly less chunk of the auction based on the directs. don't have the final figures, but a-minus. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. another big story this hour ahead of the fed meeting results, the cnbc fed surveys, steve liesman focusing on growth and your first graph is very interesting. >> scary? >> a little bit, yeah. >> let me show you why it may not be or is overly optimistic. what's happens is the growth framt for 2014 and '15 have both come down. this is percent change year

let's get down to bob pisani and rick santelli. >> the reaction down on the floor there? >> i think most of the traders are talking about slack in the labor market, a range of labor market indicators suggest that it remains significant underutilization of labor resources. let's look at the markets here. we actually moved up. i think, and i'm just checking with people down here, the general feel is that's a keep paragraph here right now. there's a little move up. oftentimes markets move down. i think it's probably related to that. most other people also pointed to a slightly more hawk sish comments. somewhat closer to the committee's longer-run objective, but that statement, a lot of slack remaining in the labor market is the tip-off from the fed, they're going to continue to keep interest rates low. remember the overall concern. statistic morning -- quicker than expected p. the interest rate sensitive sector, because that's been weak all throughout the day, so the consumer staples all have underperformed. the markets if the economy improves, so the telecommunication, the

first, rick santelli what are you watching today?well, we're watching today's number with adp, and it's remarkably similar to the non-number, the number before last. 282. this one 281. we're going to discuss how the sequential weakness or strength in the government job the data could give you clues which way interest rates and stocks may go tomorrow morning at 8:30 eastern. we'll talk about that, after the break. ship, you'll find the works! it's a complete checkup of the services your vehicle needs. so prepare your car for any road trip by taking it to an expert ford technician. because no matter your destination good maintenance helps you save at the pump. get our multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change, tire rotation, brake inspection and more for $29.95 or less. get a complete vehicle checkup only at your ford dealer. intercourse that's painfulit... due to menopausal changes. the problem isn't likely to go away... ...on its own. so it's time we do something about it. and there's help. premarin vaginal cream. a pr

we want to get to the bond market where rick santelli is standing by tracking all of the action at the cme. hey, rick. >> hi. we had a two-year note auction today but it didn't make a huge difference. if you look at a chart of two year, it's not very interesting. open the chart up for one year and it becomes a lot more interesting. we're hovering at some of the highest yields since september of last year and about to break to the upside. contrast that with the chart at 14-month low yield and if you think about some of the spreads like 5 to 30s, there's narrows that we've seen in 5 1/2 years. last chart is dollar versus chinese currency. notice that the dollar is at the lowest level since may. something to pay attention to and really the pmi we had last week that was positive for the chinese economy was one of the catalysts. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. turning into busiest week of the summer economically, profit wise, earnings, economy, fed. we'll talk about that as all of those major market barometers are now in the green. plus, a handshake, a high five, or a fist pump.

rick santelli what are you watching today? >> sometimes things follow you around.rning the first thing on my clock radio that woke me up, talking about michael lewis, graduate of princeton. the book i put down last night before i fall to sleep. ed with with-woodrow wilson. the big number today, 58 million. dune in after the break. financial noise financial noise financial noise ugh. heartburn. did someone say burn? try alka seltzer reliefchews. they work just as fast and taste better than tums smoothies assorted fruit. mmm. amazing. yeah, i get that a lot. alka seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. hard it can be...how ...to breathe with copd? it can feel like this. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva is a once-daily inhaled... ...copd maintenance treatment... ...that helps open my airways for a full 24 hours. you know, spiriva helps me breathe easier. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace rescue inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating,

rick santelli is here. hi, rick. >> carl, there's a lot of things going on on the economic front. china definitely moved to the highest levels since march. 52 handle. but keep in mind, that series is only as old as 2011. it's hard to get a big perspective and we had a drop in claims. seasonalities accounts for things like layoffs in the auto industry this time of year. we'll keep it simple. lowest level since '06. what did that do to the market? rates popped up. that's what is supposed to happen. open the charts to may, five settlements under 2.5. and that is technically significant. we talk about it a lot. that's the correlation. makes sense. let's switch gears. look at pound versus dollar two-day. the pound is deteriorating a bit. they are walking back. we lost the 170 plus handle. china, pmi i mentioned, look at the dollar versus the yuan on a short-term chart. how low? haven't had the numbers this low since march of this year. carl, back to you. >> all right. rick santelli, thanks. >>> earnings lifting shares of southwest to a higher level. we'll speak with the ceo gary kelly

rick santelli is in chicago, rick? out late, five after the top of the hour, we've seen decrease in the equity markets and slippage in interest rates already at much lower levels than we have in the last several days. why? because the may job openings and labor turnover, first of all, increased 171,000 job openings to a grand total of 4.36 5 million. wow, let's do forensics. that's the high water mark now. today's number usurps march of 2007. it is the high water mark on job openings and labor turnovers. intrinsics are bullish. first time since 2007 you had four numbers in a row over 4 million. no matter how you slice it, this number slows some horsepower to it, so we need to find out what's so discriminating these days about the fixed income markets that's globing on to the notion that interest rates can't go higher, and that's what we talk about for the rest of the day. back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you so much, rick santelli. >>> in a year when luxury auto sales are up 4%, there's only one brand seeing sale

let's bring in bob pisani, rick santelli, don't take sides. let's be objective. journalists over all of this. bob pisani, you know, i would say that maybe it's a little bit of everything. when you've got a market that is at or near all time high, right, it doesn't take much out there to upset the apple cart. >> this has a lot to do with valuations and bonds and stocks. some part of the market that i think are frankly silly. bonds can get over valued just like stock. i said all week. silly valuations and internet names as well as in some small cap tech names. i'm glad the russell is down. some people in the market are saying, hey, fellas, does this make a lot of sense to spend 150 times forward earpings for pandora? really? maybe it is but at least somebody is asking questions and the same thing for peripheral debt. is question isn't why didn't it go down, the question is why in the heck did it go up so much in the first place? that's your providence, rick santelli. >> i think that's an easy one. >> rick -- >> go on. go on. >> no, no, no. to bob's point, why are s

let's go to rick santelli. good morning. >> morning, carl.art of tens, covering this at 1:00 eastern, wow, yields are up a little, a base point and a half, and the true trading truth, yes, yes up today, but the readjustment to the downside of rates and upside of price. open up to june 1st should we sell off pushing rates up, there is a boat load of wood as you see on the chart from 266 to 272 which means until we close above 266, 267 most traders are going to look at that as very tough resistant to get through and close above. look overseas. remember the comments? everybody's 2014 look aheads of last year, the stabilization dance. the fact that the central banks of portugal, greece, spain, ireland, they all basically own and bought their own paper and everything was great as yields plummeted. portugal missed payments, world thrives on overnight funding, boom, rates pop up. look at the two-day chart, going to challenge 4%. to give you a better context, this is not like it's back at 5% or 7%, but it's something to pay attention to. open the cha

santelli exchange. good morning, rick carl. what a day it is, we have a perfect guest for a morning where our markets are asktsed by the european markets that are affected by the ever so construed and artificial fixed income market in the european countries. andy, thank you for taking the time. >> rick, thank you for having me. >> all right. let's start at the top, a lot of comparisons going on in portugal. i actually don't think that's the case. i think the fat tales aren't going to happen. ooo-ey think we'll continue to squeeze what type of future economic horsepower we can get and the reason wee squeezing it, because we're basically mortgaging part of it in the future to do things like keep rates in the european southern economies artificially low and we see that's breaking down. let's hear your interpretation, andy. >> well, what'ses going on, rick, the second largest bank in portugal basically missed an interest payment sending bonds, trading a one-year piece, trading par on june 23rd, trade as low as 32 this morning

arthur cashin and rick santelli. welcome back, everybody. art, we had private payroll numbers and that didn't boost the number today. i guess everybody is waiting for the government's number tomorrow? >> it looked like it might be too much of a good thing. he saw the yield on the ten-year spike sharply after the number came out. and the stock futures looked to turn better, they saw that yield go up and they said, uh-oh, that may present a problem tomorrow. depending on what the number is, it may have a potential impact on the yield and that in turn will have an impact on the discussion about when the fed moves and how they move. so caution is in the air and that's why we're not moving any further. >> this reminds me of something that was said this morning. rick santelli, what happens if the data is finally strong enough if this bond market starts to believe it? >> well, that would be a wonderful thing. it's going to bring higher interest rates. but on that topic of success, this was a great adp number, the greatest since around november of 2

our josh lipton. >>> going to rick santelli for the santelli exchange.u for taking the time today, andrew. >> thank you for inviting me. >> you wrote many articles that i just read and reread about how there's a whole lost generation of young people that just aren't being integrated into the labor force, and being the ceo of a large restaurant chain that employees, what, over 70,000 people, you know about youth employment or lack therein, maybe you can explain. >> well, we do employ young people. the restaurant industry is famous for entry level jobs. it's how i got my start, scooping ice cream for minimum wage back in 1966. it's something i'm familiar with, something that our company is familiar with. unfortunately, they are the jobs disappearing in this economic climate, and that's why i wrote the articles to see if we can try to reverse that. >> i'll put a quick face on it, and maybe you can tell me why they are disappearing. 16 to 24-year-olds in the u.s., that group is roughly 13% unemployment. excuses, well, they are going to school, but there's cl

and our own rick santelli. anthony, i'm going to start with you. the tone of the market lately, we've seen very defensive issues moving higher. utilities are actually up today, while the secondaries, the small cap stocks are getting clobbered here, which would suggest that this market's anticipating some economic weakness. what do you think's going on? >> well, i think that if you look at the bond market and you see bond yields coming down to 256, that is a little bit of nervousness. we know that earnings season is coming upon us, you know alcoa's going to report. you'll see a major financial institution reporting on friday. so, i think this market, they really need to see real evidence that the economy is getting better. i think the employment report provided a nearby preview to an improvement in the economy. now they need to see if there's proof that this improvement in labor market condition's going to translate into better economic activity in the second half of the year. >> all right. i'd like to know, winnie, rob, mark, to all of you here, ar

that's been the trend -- >> chinese yuan. >> -- and i don't see that it's going to change. >> rick santelli, to that point, does that mean here that fund flows are going to keep supporting u.s. assets? and not just stocks, by the way, but real estate, which is getting more headlines across the country. >> well, anybody who has cash, you talked about credit. one-third of all the transactions are cash. so, even though low rates and big liquidity were supposed to help a big swath of america get access to credit and specifically mortgage andzs and houses, really hasn't worked out that way. but i do continue to think we're going to continue to see a lot of these cash deals come into the marketplace. it's a good time to have a lot of money. with respect to the euro currency, i would put forth exhibit "a," and that would be the dollar versus the yuan. right now in front of their pmi, which comes out in several hours, and china's looking to put a nice number on the board, we see the dollar at the lowest level since early april. i think when it comes to currencies, that we can't confuse the notion t

in the meantime, something rick santelli no doubt had opinions on.rning, rick. >> not only an opinion, tomorrow, a special guest. tell you what, i've seen a lot of these testimonies over the last 35 years, and this one's pretty exciting, and a lot of it is based on the federal reserve accountability and transparency acts of 2014. it's a house piece of legislation. of course, the congressional leaders in that room understand it pretty well, because they wrote it. i guess we could debate the whole notion of counterfactual, but usually when conservatives come up with counterfactual arguments to try to look at things through a different prism, regarding some of the programs and things question after the credit crisis, it's always pretty much thrown out. if really was a big line of against, and janet yellen defending what she called operational independence. and i'll tell what you, operational independence, to me, sounds as though, you know, we will do what we want, when we want, how we want, and basically that's that. so i think it's very fascinating tha

. >> thank you, rick santelli is joining us from the cme group in chicago. rick?hi, david, good morning. seems as though the world's fixed income markets, even though central banks have a big thumb on the scale, is taking intoing t into account some of the data around the globe, whether it's china or japan, the report was not a golden report. it was not bad. you see, i mean, an increase in interest rates. a two day of fives, see how we build above yesterday's high? a two day of tens. take it back to may 1st, it's an important chart showing as much as we see a little sell off today, it certainly looks as though lower rates seem to be built into the chart formation. let's look at what's going on with regard to jgbs. it's a fascinating story, of course, in that their interest rates continue to make new lows going back 14 months. there you see 55 basis points for their ten year. the pound versus the dollar, on everybody's mind, there's a good econ 10 1lesson, keep it simple. currency used to be vied as stock in the country. if your stock is good, your currency is good

and it's not rick santelli. you don't want to miss that. harold ford and john sununu say new laws for regulation to treat the lab like a utility could cripple job growth. they'll explain later on the "closing bell." >>> welcome back. we started with a quick market flash. courtney reagan, what's going on? >> that's right, kelly, check out shares of apollo education group, the stock getting hammered in the after-hours trading session after the company announced it has been informed by the department of education that it intends to conduct a review of the university of phoenix's financial aid programs. right now, shares trading down 7%. kelly, back to you. >> big hit for them, courtney. thank you. >>> well, we do know the fed will raise interest rates at some point. we just don't know when. but my next guest says the fed may already be too late to stave off inflation because of what he calls institutional inertia. ian shepherdson is chief economist at pantheon macroeconomi macroeconomics. ian, good to have you on the line here. listen, you're

for joining us last minute on the newsline, ipsita. >>> and pass it over to the cme group and rick santellithanks, simon. i'd like to welcome dan the man saysich. i like to tie things up. no rules followed. rule-based is out the window. whether it's the case just outlined now, where subsidies, laws written, need to come from the federal, not the state. >> right. >> everybody knew this. just like everybody knows the federal reserve is kind of righting this as they go. is this one of the reasons yield curve is flattening? one of the reasons, long end can't get traction for higher rates? because it sees this landscape is not conducive to anything. from health care to business, to banks? >> well, they're certainly putting a lot of doubt in people's minds what's going to go forward, because you would think in a growing economy we'd see longer term rates start going up the ten year, pushing towards 3%. we're nort seeing it. is it geopolitical? uncertainty? a combination. >> geopolitical and weather, i'll stop you. always where everybody wants to shovel all question about call because it's easy to

on the better jobs report, rick sen ta santelli, over to you. >> 281,000 is a good jobs report. how much information or how indicative will it be of tomorrow's number. you can clearly see we're up on rates, down in price, parallel shift on the yolker. interest rates 5, up 5 basis points. open up the chart. these will be the highest yield closes for five year since the 23rd of june. if we look at a ten year, same thing. 815 eastern. boom, rates go up. treasuries sell off. also up 5 basis points. open the chart up. these could be depending on the final hour or two the highest yield closes since the 17th of june. and everything is logical on every sector. dollar index as you see on the interdate chart is up and getting very close to testing unchanged on the year from the bottom up. back to you. >> yeah. dollar's been moving with the yield. thanks, rick. over to dominic chu. >> gravity has taken close of one of the helium stocks. this time it's gw pharmaceuticals. off the session lows. still down 4 1/2%. investors looking to take profits in the stock. it had been up more than 50% ju

. >>> to the bond market, ten-year 245, rick santelli tracking the action. hi, rick. >> hi.'s a lot of defense of this spot. look at the intraday chart. very tiny range, this is about the same yield it was four hours ago, you can see why. is the left side of that chart, that's what we're defending, the significant technical area on a 244 closing basis. hey, china, in about seven hours, one of their important pmis come out. it could be one of the better ones since march. what is that doing? look at the intraday of the dollar versus the yuan, dollar is moving down. this could be the lowest close on the greenback since early april. back to you. >>> thank you very much, rick. the momentum stocks begin to report their earns. high-flies internet names. we'll tell you about the ones you need to watch. >>> plus the next generation of the investors, the mill lennial will control about 9 trillion in assets by 2018. one investment move they're making right now, with major ramifications for the stock market in the years ahead. we will explain what also, after this. machines will be spra

jo duran from financial capital advisors here with the at the big board, and our own rick santelli. rick, what is the market telling you? the yields were going up, then they started to come back for the 10 and 30-year. we're back to where we were yesterday basically but stocks continue to slide lower. what's going on here? >> i don't know. to me, i like to keep things simple. what's changed in the last day? we had a fed meeting. what happened at the fed meeting? nothing super important except for the fact that we have a whiff of inflation, a whiff of compensation improvement based on this morning's data to the tune of the best in six years. we have a fed that would like to find a reason not to take the punch bowl away but isn't finding many of those reasons exist. i think that the denial of the effects of their policy are starting to change and i think that's why equities are moving the way they did. we moved up to a 2.61 level in that 10-year based on it, then we moved back down. to me, when stocks are proactively moving lower, rates are going to move lower but they're going to star

let's get to rick santelli who's already had to wade through a lot of economic data today. od morning, carl. but had an outsized gdp with an influence outsized by inventories. we'll talk about that on "santelli exchange." look at two-year note yields. they are now at the highest yields should they close in this zone since may of 2011. we'll call it over three years. let's look at the spreads. many are saying that the flattening has nothing to do with the fact that the economy's underperforming. but this augers differently. as you look at the one day, on the two-day chart it's a makeup for yesterday's flattening that put it at the flattest since june of 2013. let's stick with the theme of flattening. look at 5s to 30s. it still didn't overtake settlement. it's a new fresh 5 1/2-year flat. we continue to see the long end, even though yields are going up with all this flattening because the numbers were better, it's not going up as fast as the short rates. let's look at this chart of 10s. if it's holding that 2.44, low yield closed ant 28th, according to technicians, we could a

rick santelli at cme group in chicago. take it away. >> good morning.ou don't need economic data, which there is none today. the inversion tax issue is its own economic fundamental for any of those who have questions to why we're operating at such a neutral type speed, and jack lew, let's face it he's not going to give you unvarnished view how to fix it or why it isn't fixed but needs to be. train day of tens, up on basis point. two-day, challenging on friday's train day's highs but hasn't punched through. maybe the most important chart open it up, these are basically the highest -- excuse me, what a fraudian slip, the lowest yield closes in six weeks. look at the yield curve. we know that it's been mostly about flattening. i continue to look at one of the wider spread trades, 5s to 30s. 5 to 30 now under, under, what, 1.70, around 1.6, close to the lowest and tightest it's been since september '09. look at may 1st charts, may 1st on the ten-year, yes it came within several basis points of 4%, it's moving lower. i don't know if there's lehman momented i

let's go to rick santelli at the cme and get an update. money hag flowing in this for quite a while. all of the issues of the day set aside. the market did what many experts were saying it did. remember we touched 250s. at 252 last week, we're currently trading about two, three basis points down on the week. the gets affected by many them, with you culprits, it's the bund yield. they have never touched 113. bang of italy lowering the forecast to two tenths. remember those sayers of big growth in europe, well, it certainly does seem to have diminished. it's very important to pay attention to, too, as the issues of the day in bank of thely and ongoing stubbornness with regard to their economy is finally taking a toll. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. what do the big money people make of all the uncertainty in the world today. the chief investment officer of lowe's is here to talk about that. he oversees some $50 billion. >>> and is money the main motivator in this current meet crisis? why hamas salaries -- yes, salaries -- have be

cnbc commentator rick santelli, some call him the god father of the tea party since he slammed presidentis colleagues set the record straight. >> hey, rick. you already decided this wasn't going to work five years ago. >> and i was right! i was right! [ speaking simultaneously ] >> it's impossible for you to have been more wrong, rick. your call for inflation, the destruction of the dollar, the failure of the u.s. economy -- >> i'll tell you what. i wasn't brought on -- i didn't think they could have policy so bad -- >> every single bit of advice you gave would have lost people money, rick. lost people money. every single bit of advice. there is no piece of advice you have given. >> they need a better strategy. wait until next year isn't the way to go. >> there is no piece of evidence you have given that's worked, rick. >> yes, there is. >> not a single one, rick. >> -- do her job or his job -- >> higher interest rates never came. the inability of the u.s. to sell bonds never happened. the dollar never crashed, rick. there isn't a single one that's worked for you. >> i have nothing again

ron insana, to rick santelli, breaking news in the bond market. >> 29 billion, and remember, the old guy. like everybody sold off. that the grain -- the ultimate yield, 2.25, which 2.5 was the bid to cover. a little higher than 42%, and one off the rails, 15.2, the lower since july of 2012. charlie minus, but qulo know that any issue could have done we had today with the selling pressure. tyler, back to you. ricks terr, back to you. bertha? >>> humana taking a hit after the health insurer said the second quarter profit fell 18% because of a spike up in benefit costs offsetting -- humana is off 5.85%, that's taking other scherrers with it, including wellpoint. wellpoint reported better numbers, raised the outlooks, and said it's okay where medical costs are as aetna has said. there's still a debate as to what's happening and who can really handle them right now. >> bertha, thank you very much. >>> with the focus on the economy and of course the fed, where are -- let's ask jill kuhn i have, seeing over $28 billion in assets, including one of the nation's first-ever mutual funds, and le

jack berujian and our own rick santelli. let's see if everyone can get a word in edgewise here. we had the federal reserve minutes out today, kim. they are signaling they will continue to pull back on the bond purchases, probably finish up after their october meeting but still no word on when they intend to raise interest rates. >> market is up on that news. what do you make of the fed policy right now? >> i think they've been telegraphing what they are going to do and raising rates is not on the menu right now. nor is it in the foreseeable future. they want to have a good measure of inflation going before they would ever think about raising rates. and we'll see if they can get that going or not. >> we want to mention at the same time, we think we're getting some comments from mario draghi in europe about the extent to which the ecb is prepared to ask if they are trying to fend off deflation. not much movement in markets since the top of the hour. just want to bring that to everyone's taepgs. keith fitzgerald, how much is europe, whether it's concerns about the economy there, co

bank, jeff cox from our own cnbc.com gang, and rick santelli. i started with you yesterday, rick. let me start with you today. yesterday the big sell-off, the risk-on trades for gold, for oil, for the bonds and so forth, the dollar in some cases. what about today? has this been a complete reversal or what are you seeing? >> well, it hasn't been a complete reversal, but then again, we can't know that for sure. if you look at a ten-year and you see today it did trade up and yield around 2.5%, that is basically the margin that has been the effects of much of the geopolitical. from the 2.50 mark into the kind of 2.45 area, we're actually down only three basis poins on the week after settling last week at 2.52. i think the best way to express this, bill, is there's a lot of things that influence and affect treasury prices and rates. we know most of the major ones. and geopolitics fits in, but it doesn't determine where they are ultimately valued. i think it's all of the above, and i think one of the biggest all of the above right now is the next chart. this is ten-year bund yields. the