scarlet: joining the now is robert shiller.o you agree with adam parker of morgan stanley that it's now a good time to buy u.s. stocks gapper professor shiller: i think the market is highly priced. it has been highly prized before and gone higher. , myt now, i have surveys gale school of management surveys of stock market attitudes showing it's kind of like 1997, that people have low confidence in the valuations of the market, but they are still optimistic. i find it very hard to forecast right now. i think it's a little dangerous to be in the market, but that's not saying it will not go up to new highs. scarlet: right, you have some of couldow confidence, which be added fuel for the gains in the market. the strongeve that dollar -- the strong dollar and a weakness in oil prompted many analysts to reduce estimates for this year through the first half -- have they overshot on the downside? professor shiller: i do not forecast earnings. the factors you mention are obviously important. i would mention others that are kind of long

alix: you sound like robert shiller. i am not sure that the current situation is a classic bubble. the current environment may be driven more by fear. is there something to that? we might see a bubble, but there is something different going on. michael: it is a fear of missing out. i think it is people feeling the need -- this market has been mark of the resilient. we had almost an economic disaster. you had the fed step in and do great things to prevent that. recovered, they did not take their traditional role of removing the liquidity and tightening policy. we have had six years of zero interest rates. it has been nine years since we have had an interest rate hike. we are still at zero interest rate. we have a long way to go. stocks areer says, really expensive, but that does not tell you anything about what stocks are about to do. it could be several years before a correction or crash. you are in the bubble camp. what is the timing? when do we see the correction? michael: i do not have a crystal ball. but you have to position yourself so you can digest these environments. i alwa

stocks near record highs, goldman sachs asked robert shiller and jeremy siegel whether we have reasonrry about an impending bubble. while yale's schiller believes there is a bubble element in the current climate, or to siegel takes the opposite view, confident that it will continue the run. erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle spoke with him earlier this morning in order to find out more. i agreed that the current valuation of the market measured by the standard price-to-earnings ratio is a little bit higher than the historical average, i think a higher p/e ratio is fully justified in a world of record low interest rates. even when the fed raises them, they are going to still remain low on his -- on historical standard. in my estimation and my colleagues at wharton, a lower discount rate means a higher average valuation or the stock market, so i certainly do not believe that it is overvalued at current levels. erik: professor siegel, that is a key point. where do you think funds are going to peak once the federal reserve is that the apex of the tightening cycle? professor siegel: my bel

take a listen to what robert shiller, jeffrey and carl icahn have said recently. >> seems to me thate could last but then it could crest. it's a risky time to invest. >> most think corporate bondingss are going to save you. >> i'm very concerned about the market and i think the market is over heated especially the high yield market. >> if the their warnings are correct, two of them about the bond market one about the equity market well what do you do? do you do in the event of a market sell off on either side. dominic chu is back at hq with that. >> if you're worried about the possibility of a larger pull back, one of the things you want to do is look at some of the names again you look towards is one of the names out there, a number of things you'll want to watch overall that could potentially be a leader. if you take a look at investments that perform well when the market drops, data analysts firm partners look at criteria back to 2009 and found eight 30-day periods when the s&p fell by 5% or more. they found the stocks and exchange rate funds that had a higher positive of percenta

every time we talk about robert shiller when you get that nobel prize what happens?on become more valuable? how do people treat you differently? alvin roth: journalists seem to think that you know everything. of course, we only know what we know. part of being elevated to being a nobel laureate means being more careful about what you say. brendan greeley: does that help at home as well? is that the nobel laureate asking for this? tom keene: when you look at the phrases of the moment the things we hear from the professors or from others, how much can we dovetail the world of academics into the world of mr. dwyer? alvin roth: it takes us a long time to know anything. the difference between journalists and historians is the difference between journalists and academics. we don't study the news. we study what is available to study. this is longer-term data and trends and institutions. tom keene: i think he's blaming the media for this. brendan greeley: it is generally our fault. this is how economists see themselves academically. we are going to get back into the bubble q

goldman sachs published a huge note over the weekend where they had robert shiller and jeremy siegelout whether or not we are in stock market bubble territory. erik: peter lynch? tracy: it is peter lynch 's favored measure. not him personally. erik: we have been talking about valuations for months. is there any reason all of a sudden? here we are. multiples have been climbing. over the past few weeks, they seem to have stabilized. tracy: we could argue it is connected to the economic data that will come out. people are wondering if stocks have divorced from fundamentals. you are watching the economic data, consumer spending for instance. they are not starting to wonder that they are thinking more about it. stephanie: even if people fundamentally agree, they don't want to underperform the index. erik: let's hear from bruno. bruno: our smartest investors, it is a most unanimous they all seem to think the u.s. market is overextended. it has not been anything pivotal. we hear more about valuations going up. we are of the opinion that the markets are overextended. there are better opportu

neil: robert shiller, no one follows us better. all right. just getting news right here that behind the scenes you've always got to wonder what's going on in greece. the greek government has sent a couple of proposals today, this is the latest one. they're being examined we're told by the french prime minister among others. the french prime minister has been saying -- this is iran that we're talking about, we want you to stay in the followed. we want you to be in our club. we think you deserve to be in our club. this comes at the same time he's playing the good cop of germany who is playing the bad cop and saying we're not going to budge. you know the deal that's on the table, stick to it. good cop, bad cop, i'm confused. we'll sort it out after this >> this is not something that we believe will have a major shock to the system. but obviously it's very painful for the greek people, and it can have a significant effect on growth rates in europe. . neil: all right. what the president is essentially saying it's all greek to me because it's all g

and then we get reaction from nobel prize winning economist robert shiller. our bones. new citracal pearls. delicious berries and cream. soft, chewable, calcium plus vitamin d. only from citracal. ♪ ♪ ♪ (singing) you wouldn't haul a load without checking your clearance. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. a growing number of hack attacks have raised cyber security over the past year. when it comes to protecting our nation's grid our next guest says government needs to team up to manage the threat. joining us is deputy secretary of energy. liz, thank you for joining us this morning. we're thrilled to have you. scare the heck out of everybody, or i imagine you will. when you guys think about the worst possible threat or what's really in front of us what is it so we just understand what could really happen? what's realist snick. >> good morning. you all know as well as we do the threats are dynamic and evolving and serious. we're working closely with tom and his

fast forward to 2000 frequent "squawk box" guest robert shiller had his book published.2007 showing a forecast collapse of the real estate market and he was right on that. on the plus side for the markets here on "squawk box," david tepper sparked the tepper rally when he said the fed easing guarantees a rally. that was the fed put. you know what markets did after that. question becomes, should wall street and main street believe what carl icahn is saying right now? gentlemen, welcome to both of you. >> good morning. >> it's great to see you. what carl was talking about in that clip we just played was the high yield market. that's not necessarily a reflection on the stock market. but he has been concerned about the stock market for a couple of years and you have too, peter. >> no question. carl said this is a year ago as i said it a year ago. it's the timing of it. the markets can remain that way for awhile. valuations can be expensive for awhile. but it gets down to the timing. in 1998 you could have said things are overheated. in 2006 the housing market started to roll