the max rsi a generation ago was 81 just a historic level of being overbought, and if you look at the three month, six month and one-year return after that 2011 peak in relative strength it was negative 2%, negative 40% and negative 42% the november 2021 when rsi peaked last time the three, six and one-year return was plus 3% so now basically you have arguably the best stock in the world but is the sixth highest reading ever and you have to say to yourself how likely is it for there to be strong gains in the very short term from here? the likelihood of a reversal grows. i just want to do what i think is prudent, take some risk off the table. and, you know, be in a situation where if there is that reversal i'm not as exposed as i was last week >> what is so interesting about the current state of the market, of buying into ai-related stocks and watching nvidia, weiss, which was $300 in the moments before it reported earnings, which, you know, we investigate ten days ago not even, it feels like. a bit of a seller in josh. you're a new buyer on the close last thursday, is that right take

i look at the chart, and the rsi on starbucks, nine-day rsi, retalk about relative strength indicatorss, but for the last month, this company's been north of 80 on an rsi, and it's trading at 88, never been this high valuation, it's tough for me, even though i'm still long just a little bit >> and paying $7 for a black coffee >> more than yeah sure >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern. >>> gm getting a boost could shares be about to turn the corner we'll trade that when "fast money" returns thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. (cecily) you're looking pleased with yourself. (seth) not to brag, ♪♪♪ but i just

see, that's the rsi, that's an important momentum indicator down right here. it stands at 40.an oversell reading but definitely on the cooler side which tells garner the bulk of the selling copper might already be behind us see if it weren't it would be all the way up here. how about the shorter term daily chart for the july copper futures. even here garner sees signs that copper is due for a rebound. based on the july contract the floor of support comes near $3.55, all right, right here down 5 cents from the floor and weekly chart copper is trading below its 200-day moving average and she thinks it could be a breach and if it can pivot near 3.70 then vault other the 200-day moving average the result could be enough to overwhelm the bears. at the same time the relative strength in the index has tumbled all the way down to 30 and before rebounding is now trending higher so bottom there and then going up a little bit according to garner we saw similar action in the rsi in the middle 6 last year right before we got a big rally more important, check out this weekly chart of the co

a lot of those indicating perhaps we are at overbought levels including the rsi. the close on thursday. certainly is a big question mark of whether we are going to see the sort of really being able to extend even though we see an options activity. there is still a lot of bullish signals coming through from the data set as well. shery: the u.s. and taiwan have agreed to boost trade ties under an initiative announced last year that faces opposition from beijing. sampson ellis is in taipei and joins us with the details. this is not necessarily a free-trade agreement and it does not necessarily address tariffs either. what is this deal about? >> that is a very good question. . it is important to highlight this is the first step in trade and she give the u.s. and taiwan have been negotiating for the past few months. this is part of an ongoing informal trade talk between the two sides. the initial agreement does cover things like customs. it will streamline customs processes. it will reduce wait times for trucks and vessels and improve regulation. what it does not cover

maybe we stay sideways but the s&p 500 trying to break out of this range, the rsi and momentum indicatorg to break to the upside toward the older -- oversold territory. this chart is relatively neutral to constructive. the bulls are trying to get something going. dani: the vicks curve talking about a snoozer. potentially not a snoozer, treasury secretary janet yellen cut her g7 trip short to japan as worries about the looming debt ceiling showdown escalate. over the weekend she told abc's this week that involving the 14th amendment to avoid the debt limit breach would provoke a constitutional crisis. listen. >> it is congress's job to do this. if they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making. there is no action that president biden and u.s. treasury can take to prevent that catastrophe. alix: let's bring in the managing director for policy research at btig. how worried should we be about it possible breach of the debt ceiling? >> it is a viable possibility but it is highly unlikely that we breach the debt ceiling. if market particip

our data team adds 21of the 60 components have an rsi above 70.are talking about microsoft and alphabet >>> time for a check of the top stories and including tiktok taking action over a ban of the social media app silvana henao is here with more. >> frank, good morning tiktok officially suing montana's attorney general to try to stop that state ban of the app. lawyers for the china based company argue the ban violates the first amendment adding the threat raised by montana in the law is not something state officials can attempt to regulate tiktok is seeking to have the law which has not gone into effect yet overturned. tiktok will soon give oracle full access to the data for the social media app according to bloomberg, that includes source code, algorithm and content material in the push to ease national security concerns. >>> jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon out with a warning on the potential of fresh risks to the banking sector commercial real estate is likely the area to cause problems for lenders. >>> and oracle co-founder larry ellison is look

and revealed that on our show that wasn't because his position size was too big this was looking at rsi and overbought and suggesting this thing has run so far in a relatively short period of time that it's just prudent to take some money off the table, maybe anticipating the kind of role in some of the names. it may be short-lived, we'll see. there are many motivations >> without question, the parabolic nature of the way stocks traded indicate there could be a near-term top and we'll understand if that's validated after broad.com's earnings tomorrow. if you think about it mondays -- i always think of mondays as the day in which investors throw in the towel. why? they sit home all weekend and in particular on a long holiday weekend they study the market, they look at the gains and see the gains in the semiconductor industry first thing in the morning, okay, we're going in if you're not there it's like you're short the trade on mondays i'm hesitant to initiate positions because you kind of have that psychological element that's in the market and generally that psychological element is be

you can see the rsi when it gets overbought, looking at an 86. past, it typically does signal we are going to consolidate those gains. this move is parabolic. 100% above its moving average. yes, overextended but it could become more overextended. back in 2021 last year, it was more than 200% above that moving average. at some point, back down to earth. the bigger move on the week in my view could be yields. this is an 11 day chart of the two year yield, backing up and backing up. we are above 4.60. it is as though the banking crisis did not happen. this is the highest level since march 9, the day silicon valley bank started to implode. guy: what to the crisis -- what that ceiling crisis? it is going to be a big week next week. we are not done for the week. we are heading into the long weekend. we have a few things we need to be thinking about, though the market will be open early for treasuries. the house is on memorial day resource until june 5. the leaders are going to be working to this weekend to get a deal done and keep you close to that bee

i'm going red overbought literally is when you're tracking relative strength and when you look at rsis for some of the hottest tech stocks in the market and some of the largest, they're all approaching levels where you say, okay, this might have gone too far too fast not necessarily too far period, but just in the short term so i don't hate the idea of maybe calming down a little bit, maybe not adding the next tech stock. nearly 70% of the qqq etf holdings hit above their 50-day moving average last week that's back down to 62%, but those are the highs that we've seen in this reading of breadth going back to december of '22. this is the best levels of the year for qs above that 50 day, and it becomes more challenging for the rally to continue once every stock has already made its move so that's how i'm feeling right now. >> you're not alone. >> no. >> jimmy wolf today says they're waiting for the inevitable rug pull as it relates to tech we believe we're in the final stages for tech, like josh was talking about. it's not just the narrowness that troubles us but the wide and growing dive

i think if you look at qs, you're trading at a 75 rsi the semis are over 80 and haven't been this highvember '21, which is a big top. you have such a major run in the entire group that i think we're due for a bit of a pull-back, but in terms of where that -- i agree with you, melissa, i kind of saw that chart and that downward channel, i saw us at the upper end of a downward trend. but what do i know >>> up next -- to each his own up nex falras.t,in tde did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf? we're going to have to outlaw golf. absolutely no golf in this house! not under my roof! since we started working with empower, all of our financial questions have been answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- nope. always part of the plan. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com >>> time for the final trade carter >> long the qs, take measures. tr

intra day and looking like it's getting a little stretched technically if you look at the straight-up rsisort-term pauses in the last several months and going back to august so that setup is interesting the ten-year yield actually is pretty much above where it's traded at any time since the svb collapse, the friday before that weekend when svb went down it was 3.7. >> 3.63. >> reacting to a firm patch in u.s. economic data, which, of course, is bringing the fed conversation back maybe broadlyc we do get some kind of a breather in the nasdaq 100, then there's the tell for whether yesterday's broadening out of the rally is something you can fall back on or if it's a bigger downside reset >> still watching for any debt ceiling highlights, headlines. >> the market is quickly trying to rush to a place we got it. not to say that there's nothing left for relief as we wait for some formalization that there is going to be, you know, the deadline will be averted at this point, we feel like we're moving past that people were saying hey, that could be bad news. either it's a sell on the news or now th

that said, a look at yesterday the rsi and nasdaq pushes about 70 we have the largest one-day call option volume in nine years, and it feels a little bit short-term extended to me, although it's probably still the best in town. >> okay. so given your hedge fund client coverage, right? you have a really unique window into where the biggest and alleged smart money is placing its collective we learned from the 13 fs that you're getting a big lean into ai and mega-caps steve cohen was speaking at an event, and it was reported from those in the room, he's bullish on the market. one of the reasons is ai is your client base by and large growing more -- i don't know, optimistic on the market >> a little bit. i think the general posture of the trading community coming into this week was actually very defensive. i would have said this a couple of months ago as well. goldman sachs the brokerage data, always a good kind of reveal of what they have on. net exposure length was in the bottom of a lookback when i look at s&p 500 features and i reminded myself they trade as much in dollars as the entire c

say the last three to four weeks , and then secondarily starting to base out and starting to get the rsid to your point fundamentally, looking at say valuations on the stocks, the fact that a lot of the bad news is already in, and these stocks have been thrown out with the baby, the bathwater and then had the house burned down on them. charles: before i let you go, are you going to breakout s&p 4,200 hat or not? >> no, because man, don't call it a comeback but the economies been here for years. i've been wearing this s&p 4,000 and s&p 4,100 hats and everybody looked at me and now they want me to wear the 4,200 hat. no way i was already there. i would actually sell the 4,200 hat because of the fact everybody starts wearing it. charles: if you wear the s&p 5,000 hat please let us know. >> i'll meet you at taco bell, buddy see you. charles: so this morning, i made a shocking discovery. i have a brand new favorite member of the federal reserve. i can't wait to share that can jim bianco, see what he thinks of her as well that's around 2: 40 we'll talk about that but first, debt ceiling negoti

what as—as-rsi do you do? what do you do to rekake— do you do?l the gold standard therapy for treatiisedative lifts an trial the gold standard therapy for treatiisedative lifts halftrial show sedative lifts half the patients of after patients out of blues after antidote depressant failed antidote depressant meds failed . but i mean , this is this is an . but i mean, this is this is an horrific story because basically this is just one more story where there promoting drug use for people the other day we did we did a story on on in the times which said that they were promoting magic mushrooms. did you see that . yeah i didn't see you see that. yeah i didn't see that— you see that. yeah i didn't see that but— you see that. yeah i didn't see that tut tt— you see that. yeah i didn't see that but it gets— yeah i didn't see that but it gets promoted a lot «tutu»— that but it gets promoted a lot actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms— actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms ts— actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms is supposed to be very toot— m

what as—as-rsi do you do? what do you do to rekake— do you do? gold standard therapy for treatiisedative lifts an trial the gold standard therapy for treatiisedative lifts halftrial show sedative lifts half the patients of after patients out of blues after antidote depressant failed antidote depressant meds failed . but i mean , this is this is an . but i mean, this is this is an horrific story because basically this is just one more story where there promoting drug use for people the other day we did we did a story on on in the times which said that they were promoting magic mushrooms. did you see that . yeah i didn't see you see that. yeah i didn't see that— you see that. yeah i didn't see that but— you see that. yeah i didn't see that tut tt— you see that. yeah i didn't see that but it gets— yeah i didn't see that but it gets promoted a lot «tutu»— that but it gets promoted a lot actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms— actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms ts— actually. microdosing and magic mushrooms is supposed to be very toot— mushro

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