you saw a straight line down, essentially 5% on the smh. and that's telling in terms of market leadership. now, we're coming out of a peerm beyond where, after the last three to four weeks, going into nvidia, i think there's been a lot of repositioning by equity investors. i think there's so many more people investing in equal weight -- excuse me, yeah, equal weight versus market weight. we've seen a significant move into cash. we get the money market data so, was nvidia's result, and this result, i think we've all indicated that this was kind of what was expected. and that i would make an argument that it was a pretty solid market response, when you consider it. but most importantly, the market's not going to trade higher would leadership from megacap tech, and semiconductors and i think this kind of crowned that for the short run, even though i think -- i think jackson hole gives markets some room to rally after bad price action >> we'll talk jackson hole in a moment guy, i'm curious to know if you think, does this allow you to graduate i

. >> similar to the top of the hour, the smh, we have one chart of amat.t is down the same as the philadelphia semiconductor, 9.5% i think we will get further down to trend when you can see the well defined trend line there. that's another 5.5, 6% to i am thinking lower day-to-day, week-over-week. >> mike, what do you make of carter's chart and brian's trade for amat >> yeah, the trade makes a lot of sense so the semis send to be a little bit more volatile than a lot of other stocks consequently, the options premiums tend to be more elevated i point out if we take look at two-year history of options prices in applied materials, we are towards the lower end of the range. if you own the stock, it's less expensive to hedge going into earnings now using one-month options the way that brian is nan for most of the past two years. if you don't exposure to the name and you are inclined to make a bullish bet but are concerned about the choppiness, only yesterday we saw the s&p rise 135 basis points before falling 150 basis points things are really moving around her

week of the year the smh hit a new 52-woke high barely a month ago, and it's down 5% this week. marvel, micron and and mv the laggards some talk on the street around archer aviation, down 3% after soaring as much as 23% after settling a lawsuit with boeing over autonomous flying dispute it's actually down 6% now, a volatile response. the quantum computing hardware foam up about 12%, reporting a larger than expected loss but raising its guidance. >> we begin with a slew of big deals, tapestry acquiring capri for nearly $9 billion, espn striking a $2 billion deal with penn gaming and campbell's buying sovos for a little over $2 billion that's a lot of sauce. deal-making seemingly hot again and the same could be said for the ipo market according to "the wall street journal" the nasdaq and nyse are battling it out for prime listings dan, let me begin with you our deals back, or are these sorts of moments of opportunity as seen by the acquirers and sellers? >> i think it's more moments of opportunity. you happen to have a bunch of them this week which is really typical since that we'

the smh is down. you can see the well-defined trendline there. that is another 5.5% or 6% this year. thinking lower day today or week over week. >> mike, what you make of karcher's chart and brian's a trade for amat? >> they tend to be a little bit martin volatile than other stops and the options premiums tend to be a somewhat more elevated. when you look at the two year history in applied materials were going to the lower end of the rain. it is more expensive to hedge going to earnings right now using the one month options the way that brian is. if you don't have exposure to the name and you are inclined to make a bullish but, and you're worried about the choppiness, we saw the s&p rise before falling 150 basis points. things are moving around here. the call spread similarly is relatively inexpensive but i think that if i was going to go into applied material earnings, my inclination would be to do so in a risk mitigated way and that is a good way to do it if you own the stock. >> amat shares were down during trade today. the nasdaq is closing t

let's look at three identical charts so the first is the smh. no lines, no drawings, no jumts. let's put some in. second chart it is what it is and are we ordained? we have to go down to the line no do i think we are? yes. let's look at another iteration. final iteration. we are in a channel. the lower is another 4%. ultimately, i think we will get down as much as seven from here. >> interesting moves here. so many people are interested in these names, particularly nvidia we heard about some of the super chip information this week any of those -- i know you are a technical guy. any fundamentals at play that we need to pay attention to especially since we won't hear the full yresults. quarter for two weeks? >> if i were -- i get out a q or a k, and i'm out like that it's beautiful thank you. >> you got it. well, thank you, carter. we will see you in a few minutes on "options action." tim, what do you make of the action in the chip space does this actually give us an opening price point to jump in >> i don't think, first of all, until the 23rd, we know they are going to beat. how

>> sure, so as would be expected, right, the correlation between qqq and smh is exceedingly high at 90%the pattern is similar if we were to look at the chart of the qqq, same circumstance of a well defined up trend in effect since the low and now after trying to break out we falter, and the presumption is that this current falter, down 9% has room to run and we'll get it down to trend it all gets down to beta in many ways if we know the nasdaq dropped 38%, the peak, the s&p dropped 27%, well on the way back up, since the october low, the qqq is double the performance of the spy. so it's more on the way down, more on the way up, and then in this current dip it's 9 versus 3.5 for the s&p. i think there's day-to-day downside. >> all right, well, for everything "options action" check out our website and our newsletter, there's more "options action" coming up after this >>> we've got more earnings down the road next week, on friday, we're looking for a deer, and our headlights should give -- for this industrial or plowright in we have an options road map next >>> plus, calling all "options a

wolfe calls the top for both the smh semiconductor index and the nasdaq 100, meaning nvidia's ridiculous run could be coming to an end. goldman sachs' trading desk saying there could be bad news for tech senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us now to discuss all of this. >> i usually know who i am i don't think you can deny after yesterday that reversal to the downside led by the nasdaq has tech sputtering a little bit you look at today, nvidia down, as you mentioned, amazon is weak this morning, the equal weighted s&p is up 1% if i look at quarter-to-date winners in the s&p it's a lot of energy, a fair bit of health care in other words, there are answers for big tech being a little stuck for a while if that's what it is. so, i think it's kind of an eye of the beholder thing. it doesn't get us out of this notion we feel like we're in bounceback, but you get 1% higher in the s&p and people now saying the chart is broken are likely to say, well, maybe we broke a little downside to the upside and we have a shot here being a 5% pullback. >> morgan mentions this note, callahan saying

jenny, the chip rip, smh is up 5%, nvidia, 5%, broadcom 7%. you're looking at 5, 6, 7% gains in stocks within that space. >> i think you need to go stock by stock and say what's the valuation, what's the earnings reality? you can look at those individually and i think the earnings story pairs well. i think you are back to not painting chips with a broad brush. >> these are not all the same. this is not like you can substitute ruffles with baked lays and no one will know the difference. for the valuation people, the stock got cheaper after the last earnings quarter than january. maybe take another look because it's gone to 33 times earnings. nvidia is not -- what's good for nvidia is not necessarily good for all the companies in the space because of how unique the story is. they're not all playing in that same sandbox and their data center wins have to come by someone else having to lose. it's not a rising tide. nvidia new high yesterday a new all-time 40 times in 2021, zero in 2022. this was a $120 stock that is approaching $500. this year we'

. >> the smh is up 53%. there are 31 technology holdings. this ranks 28th out of 31 technology holdings. the high at 188 was early in july. after earnings the stock has come right down. i think stacy is on to something. there's nothing i can do about it right now. something can be done on halloween, but what stacy is hitting on they seem to be very slow moving. they don't seem to be as anymore am as a lot of other technology companies and semiconductor companies. >> he uses words, bryn, that a pretty powerful in terms of what he sees as the runway here when he talks about structural underperformance. structural. partly to joe's point. that's hard to fix. >> people look at semiconductors as cyclical. if you look at structural issues, intel has structural issues. it's been frozen in time. someone with a caliber of stacy comes out and says, he's probably the best on the semiside, this is going to take longer than investors have a tolerance for, i mean, i don't have an opinion on texas instruments but an opinion on stacy and the semiconductor in

why we've seen amd stock pretty much flat over the last month compared to the over 5% uptick in the smh and the stock's etfs. amd could differ from intel post earnings in two ways one, cpu market share went up in the first quarter where as intel went down. secondly, amd is set to launch its own a.i. in q4 it has orders from microsoft as well as amazon that a.i. chip alone could be seen as a catalyst for more bullish estimates for amd if it's launched on time. there's some concerns about that that means amd investors will have to look past the near-term weakness, and look towards that 2024 a.i. dream for amd. guys >> thanks. kristina partsinevelos >>> marriott with top and bottom line beats also raising q3 guidance the cfo will be with us next on the back of the results. >>> apple getting through price target hikes ahead of the quarterly report later in the week we'll break those down your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visi

so if smh is able to break through the overhead resistance, this can easily carry through the nasdaqw highs. charles: speaking of broadcom, your friends at bespoke pointed something out i did not know. broadcom has reported 12 straight triple plays. what is a triple play, folk? s they beat on earnings, they beat on revenue and they guided higher, 12 times! tied for the record. drum roll. they report after the close. you told us to buy this stock. you told the audience to buy this stock in february at 587. do we hold it into the close? >> i'm definitely holding my shares, charles. i like this company. i think it is a great stock. i will caution viewers that of course it is right at those highs, so not really the best spot to buy it here but with the way earnings season has gone this quarter, we've seen really strong stocks like this pull back and give investors a great buying opportunity. so i'm eyeing more buys on this stock. 850, 875 would be a little better of an entry point than right here but ultimately i'm targeting $1000 a share. there is more upside in this stock. charles: i'm

. >>> take a look at the smh etf, it's on pace for its fourth straight negative day and tracking for the worst week of the year for semiconductors going back to december question is, start of a trend or just a reversal of what's been a good year? >> four straight days. that downtrend for semis brings us to a note from wolf grabbing our attention. the firm calling, perhaps, for a long position intel and short nvidia yes, you heard that right. they look at the price action between the two year-to-date, seeing more runway for intel kristina partsinevelos going to weigh in on this one hi, kp. >> hi, carl. this is based on technicals. take a look at the three-year chart of intel it's on the right-hand side of your screen. you'll see a u-shape recovery. really on the far right of your screen it's hovering under $38. the analysts are suggesting intel could actually break through that resistance level which is just another saying of a price level a stock has trouble breaking through they believe it has momentum and could ride through the next resistance level which is 40 bucks. that's almost

bit more reasonable >> are you still short nvidia or no >> actually, i have a bearish position in the smh, and it is around nvidia. i think there's much more risk to the downside given that guidance >> karen >> i agree with everything you're saying. it is certainly not a this year, next year story. if you think about how they view the total addressable market, how guy dan igantic it is, for x few years, probably '25, '26, much bigger years. if you have to buy the pixie dust story, if you do that, you can get to this not being so demanding on an earnings multipleyears out. i don't like to wait at this bus stop at 41 or, you know, whatever times earnings where it is right now but i'm going to, so i have some amd, i'm not going to trade around it. and i have some nvidia, as well. be interesting to hear what they say on the call. we know it's not all about what they reported. it's about what they think is coming >> and what is the timing of the newest chip. >> right right. >> geared towards large language model training that will be key >> they say four q we don't know. but i think that's rea

different stories we've had amazon that tells the situation with cloud and we've had some of the other smh components come out and not be as glowing as we would have expected there seems to be a k-shaped recovery when it comes to the consumer we talked about the trade down you have people that have the interest rates, debt that's fueling asset purchases, and those assets are, you know, are being accretive in this environment, and you have a cohort that is debt that's fueling purchasing and i think that's the pocket we really need to focus on. if there are cracks, it will likely be that cohort. >> julie, what's your take here? i feel like this desk overall has been fairly cautious/negative when it comes to the u.s. consumer including yourself so, what do you say to all these arguments put out today? >> i think -- there used to be a colleague as merrill lynch, so, i'm loathe to disagree with her, but i think there are some concerns i have, but it depends on who you're asking, right? so, if you look at real liquid assets, if you are in the bottom 99%, they have grown 2%, 3% since the beginnin

seller of the smh. >> guy >> gilead, we called him d-day in college moving into oncology moving lowerdid you really? is that really his nickname? d-day? >> whey would you call him >> i don't know, daniel. thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >>> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise i will help you find it. mad money starts right now. hi, i am cramer. i'm not trying to make friends, i'm trying to make money. sir, you cannot always get what you want. sometimes, you get what

that stock is unchanged on the year versus an smh, semiconductor etf up 45% on the year. that's their end market, 95% of the chips are licensed from arm. i just can't imagine that's going to come into, you know, a market that is -- this is not an a.i. story right now. >> real quick, $2.5 billion in rev revenues, is this company. their talking about anywhere from 60 to 80 the makes no sense. >> wait -- >> $50 billion market cap -- >> it's still crazy expensive. so, i think one of the reasons nvidia rallied the way it did today, on top of people front running earnings, because of this, and people want to get involved. that's another way to get involved. >> interesting. all right, we're going to take a quick break. >>> coming up, zoom zooming higher. the stock jumping after reporting results in the last hour. the numbers ous out of that qua coming up. >>> plus, bitcoin hovering near the $26,000 market. will the free fall continue? we'll debate that. that's when "fast money" returns. what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with

maps and my dashboard continues to be things like, semiconductors failed to make new highs, 160 on the smh, relative new highs to the s&p, and that's something that we need to watch. the reversals in amd, you cited at the top of the show valuations are really tough here what we've seen out of this earnings season, though, is that margins have been very resilient. and that's something that i think for the most part is part of why equities, we are actually seeing multiple rerating i believe equity markets have to be challenged after -- we had one of the greatest equity rallies in market history. and while i think there are credit dynamics out there, that's not what i'm worried about in the short run i'm worried about multiples that are going to be tough to live up to so, is today the crowning moment of the last 30% on the s&p no but i don't like eck by tips today as much as i did yesterday. >> all right. >>> one of the analysts behind fitch's downgrade joined "squawk on the street" to explain what it would take for the u.s. to regain its aaa rating. >> i think there's a couple of things we w

support for the relative, so, do the rash yoel of the s&p against the smh, spy, divided by sph it's been testing it for awhile, so, i don't think it derails i also think that some of the other dynamics out there, exports out of taiwan, we got a lot of data out of asia last night, and taiwan exports were down and certainly, there's less demand from the rest of the world right now. so, yeah you i kind of agree, i mean, i don't -- i think semiconductors are going to continue to be a high growth, exciting part of the market to invest in. i think they've had a ridiculously strong run, and taiwan semi last quarter did their best to kind of derisk the rest of '23, but we really don't know about '24 >> so, put this all together if we're seeing softness in software, softness in semis, as they have pointed out, but good price action in energy, we still see, you know, the broadening out of the market, overall, are you constructive here? >> well, i think it's always constructive when you see broadening out of leadership and you want to see that -- >> you see the rollover in big cap tech -- >> yes, b

. >> commodities, and i think the other area to look at when you're looking at smh and the key technicalnow, as well as the fact that chip stocks, which have had just a rip-roaring year and are economically sensitive as well, much like commodities, also seem to be losing momentum here it's been a mixed picture, i think, in terms of earnings there too. >> well, for sure. and certainly, the response to earnings i mean, the amd selloff after what arguably were pretty on-target numbers and just an unwillingness to really give them a lot more credit in advance for some of the a.i. stuff. nvidia, i mean, it has, at most, like a high single-digits pullback, but it hasn't really been powering higher as much in the last couple weeks. >> some reaction to some consumer news we've gotten over the last couple of days. i did notice wayfair, which had that monster move yesterday. today, barclay's goes to 85. stevens goes to $105 i don't know how pressured can the consumer be if they're buying furniture and delivering some profits finally to way fair at this level? >> on overtime, we had gxo's ceo on, o

higher multiple areas of the market like semiconductors, which right now, down 1.2% as measured by the smhlooking mechanism, and so the inflation party or the good-bye inflation party that started in the fourth quarter of last year and has continued through the bulk of this year really benefitted those higher multiple stocks, so those companies are really at nosebleed valuations, and i think it takes any small disappointment to upend that kind of party they've been having, so as we're taking a look at the market today, we're thinking more about rotation, moving away from some of these higher multiple areas of the market and looking toward some of these areas that haven't participated quite as much so, that brings materials to mind it brings banks to mind. it brings some areas of communication services, which we think are a little bit better valued >> some areas like at&t, for instance i mean, i -- i'm not sure if you can talk individual stocks, when you say other areas of communication services just wondering what you mean by that >> yep so, you're right communication services is a very br