here to explain is sonali basak.sive round of job cuts, how many and having their best run since 1997 in the u.s. job market that stock market. where? >> about 6000 worldwide, 80% in europe. not surprising given the troubles we are seeing, but the u.s. banks cutting jobs is a big deal. after 2018 18, record profitability for so many banks. a lot are preparing for what could be tougher times ahead while also trying to improve the bottom line as investors want. there is a race going on among these top ranks. vonnie: are they cutting entire divisions, units, or just parent what they have? what they have. one area that is interesting is how much room there is to cut in the trading divisions. for years, we have seen of equitiesacation of equities desk -- one desk and goldman sachs, 500 people, down to three people. there is still some room as people see fixed income markets open to electronic vacation for the first time in a significant way. vonnie: how much is due to cations?icifi sonali: we talked about trading, retail,

sonali: that's right.arting up offices in new york, hoping to grab some of that talent from the big banks, and you also have tech bunnies like huber looking to get into financial services and a bigger way as well. so the option i would get people looking for a job is maybe the big tech firms. vonnie: and certainly the skills necessary aren't the same skills potential he as they were before. why 80% in europe? sonali: people are definitely seeing a lot of pressures in europe on the regulatory front, but also, remember negative interest rates and a lot of europe is pressuring a lot of those retail jobs. how do you make money in those divisions? not to mention, and europe, people feel there are just too many banks. the investor hope is that some of these banks don't exist in the future, and that some of these banks consolidate. but when you have consolidation, you also have more job cuts. vonnie: i do want to ask about one u.s. bank, wells fargo. what is the tone there? sonali: charlie scharf has come in, and

sonali: not too much, honestly.e interest rate environment, at what point are they going to start really passing those costs off to investors and clients is really the biggest question. germany is silly really -- germany is in a really interesting place in the larger european market. deutsche is right at the center of that. it will be a very interesting tension to watch. alix:alix: which also goes to what happens in germany in general. there are some calls for the economy to actually surprise to the upside, which would be great for deutsche bank. but if we get into recession, what are you going to do with that? sonali: andy good who -- and you get into a political problem here. alix: our second story is morgan stanley. this broke yesterday, still superhigh on the bloomberg. cutting these jobs, was it defense or offense? sonali: it is definitely defense. morgan stanley is coming off of a pretty good run. they bought in about $5 billion in that business last year. even though morgan stanley is cutting about 2% of thei

sonali: ubs is not alone.making the most possible money, the people with $5 million or less will be served more by technology, not just at ubs but across the board. depending on where you are, remember credit suisse, if you're in the u.s. credit suisse is not an option. ubs, what they want to do, everyone is doing the same thing. they want to lend their clients more, even more than credit suisse. goldman sachs entrance into europe will be interesting while ubs is also making these changes , speaking of competitive dynamics. is what everyone is going after. where does that leave everybody else? vonnie: still making this change. what else is he doing? sonali: i think we will see more changes ahead from him. i think there's a debate on how many changes we should see from him. they want to go ahead with their strategies, which also means improving margins, increasing lending. he is making these changes but they are in the same vein of changes we have wanted to see from ubs for a long time, which is merging that in

sonali: one reason you can think of is valuation. morgan stanley has pinned the first half of the year as the highest since 2000. equity valuations are high but leverage levels are also high. one way that private equity firms make a return is by delevering the companies they invest in. lisa: are we expecting to see a pickup in a number of lbo's next year? sonali: people are waiting for valuation to come down a little bit. only so long you can hold onto cash. everybody is looking at warren buffett, wanting him to spend more. until that happens, until people get comfortable with the debt markets, you'll not see it come back. lisa: even warren buffett tried to bid on a deal but got outbid by a private equity firm. he said, i don't feel comfortable at these valuations. sonali: apollo ended up buying the company, tech data. you are seeing people dive in because you cannot hold onto cash forever. at the same time, remember, kkr had a rumor about walgreens, a huge buyout. still a rumor. we will see if the big deals start coming back. lisa:

also bloomberg's sonali basak joins us on set.r these big cross-border mergers. what you see for next year? marc: the market was down 20% in europe. i think with brexit possibly having a conclusion, a near-term conclusion, with values being more upgradable in europe you will see more. i think the fiat transaction and psa transaction is unique in many ways since it is about technological disruption and about two companies coming together to be able to be competitive in the thomas and electric cart -- in the autonomous and electric car world. of people believe this wave of destruction will keep propping up the deal market. a lot of the deals we have seen arun health care, are in technology, are in the sectors everyone is worried about in the next election cycle. how's that supposed to pair off. our people worried about -- are people worried about the democrats? marc: people are worried about it changing tax policy, changing regulatory policy. we see what is happening with on state antitrust coming in the transaction despite the figh

sonali: she has a wide gamut.o stay in finance although one would hope she will. alix: thank you very much. coming up, banking commitment to fighting climate change. headl be speaking with the of energy natural resources and --ewables on bmps effort bloomberg users, check out all the charts throughout the show at gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: almost 200 countries gathering in madrid for the world's largest climate conference. is conference just as the eu getting ready to launch an ambitious push against climate change and an overhaul of its economy. french business giants bnp is getting among those ready to confront climate change. "as we have announced, we are committed to working with and supporting those energy sector partners who have decided to make environmental issues a central part of their business policy." joining me is the woman behind making all of that happened, ravina advani. catherine mann of citi is still with us. part of that is no longer lending to companies that are fracking. how do you h

sonali: that is a big part of the problem. easy to understand if you are not a tax lawyer.e big foreign banks were supposed to be paying taxes on interest paid to their parent companies abroad. bbyy were able to lo the treasury department to make sure that that was clampdown on. david: democrats are already saying that you benefited the wealthy, not the working class. sonali: and what is the role of the treasury department to make sure that these tax loopholes get close to. up. david: we will continue to follow that through the election year. coming up, we will continue on bloomberg radio. toour second hour, we talk mark kimmitt, but the u.s. launching strikes in iraq and syria against an iranian black militia. we basically have a proxy war going on in iraq between the u.s. and iran. the general has just returned from the region and has a full report about what we are doing in iraq and why we had to go after these militias. that is coming up in the second ho half hour of balance of power on bloomberg radio. this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. ♪ bey

sonali basak will be sticking with me, as well.k for central but decisions, plus retail sales in the u.s.. -- for central bank decisions, plus retail sales in the u.s. pageng me now is sebastien , t. rowe price associates head of global multi-asset . what is the biggest thing to look at this week? sebastien: overall, the key question we are looking for is we are lucky to be finding a bottom here in the economy. are we seeing a reflection, or more of a stabilization? as usual, part of this will be central bank policy. we will get some of that this week, but also trade negotiations. alix: how do you think about investing in that? do you have to fade any short-term rallies? do you take opportunities to add to your allocation? abastien: we expect more of stabilization than a reflation. if you look at how markets are priced at the moment, stocks are relatively expensive, 17.5 pe for u.s. stocks. on's are fairly expensive, especially outside the u.s.. the yield on non-us bonds is 6.9 percent. so you step back and say, what is the cleanes

sonali: very much.on saying to people joking around it wall street's biggest enemy is itself. you have this big war between the cell and the buy side because they are getting into each other's business. especially as the trade inflow is being captured by people like citadel. romaine: but this will continue? unless you get loosening of regulations, which i guess is possible, but not necessarily a slamdunk. sonali: even if they turn back the wheel on a lot of this it will be a difficult thing to do. a lot of the banks contend that some things paul volcker took away is not going to come back. they cannot pay these traders like they used to. and also it is really hard for banks with the capital constraints they have to be what they were pre-prices. joe: now, a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. growing signs of confidence of u.s. steel. they have raise prices for some products. that is the third increase in less than two months. prices are steel futures on the you -- on the new york mercant

sonali: ben, thank you so much for joining us. said before that you think wework is a trigger event in terms of capital moving forward. does that mean for next year? what were the lessons learned in the fundraising mishaps? ben: i think wework is both an anomaly and a trigger. i took the company public when i was young, and my underwriters were extremely strict on anything they believe could be a signal. then i looked at wework and said , how could any of these things have happened? they are allowed because often times, the most exciting startups are able to offer aggressive terms for their founders on the board. this has always caused consternation for investors. at the same time, you sometimes have to compromise. i think wework is the proof that when you don't pay attention to the details, when you don't have appropriate governance, and when you let a founder go too far, i think you will see a renewed focus on that. it is already part of the conversation, making sure things are done right. sonali: there was a great story in "the

sonali: so interesting.ntelligence estimates there's about $9 billion of profits on the table by 2030 in the commercial banking industry in china. there's a really big opportunity here. jp morgan is taking one of the first chance is to jump at the futures market, one of the first part of the market that is really opening up. part of the business also is insurance. it is really important. it's a lot bigger of an opportunity, and kind of a more obvious to a lot of people. one of the managers has already started to capitalize on that opportunity. allianz as well. david: sonali basak, thank you so much for being with us on this last trading day of the year. in today's off the beaten street, where you looking for good return for your investment decade? last if you put your money in the s&p, it tripled. some of the best performing stocks in the russell 3000 were that much, but the s&p group the bitcoin- but grew 9,000,000% over the last 10 years. whatever people say it is worth, you have to be able to buy somethin

sonali: 150 people. a while, they were also focus on private equity firms, which tend to go for smaller deals. the big, strategic six and dollar merger. as goldman focuses on private equity firms, this pairs well with a strategy to go through with that. shery: what are we expecting from goldman in terms of what types of people they are getting from these firms? are there some double names that we could talk about? sonali: one of the interesting things about this strategy, you have some of their biggest dealmakers -- we interviewed dusty phillips, the cohead of their m&a, telling is a story about last year how he found himself at a gas station -- you coheadot think about the of m&a running across america chasing smaller deals. but even a top ranks are focused on this, and that chose to -- shows you how intent they are on making the strategy worked for them, even though goldman has been known for focusing on large-scale deals. shery: two they even need to work this hard? when it comes to market share, the

sonali: it was 15% higher. this is blackstone infrastructure. it was done 50% higher than their offer was. it is interesting to see these public shareholders pushback at these private equity firms and say listen, you need to pay up a little more to make this worth our time to take it out of the public market. lisa: more broadly, can you give us a sense of what the advantage is for companies to be private over public? sonali: a lot of people are having a lot of issues with corporate governance. a lot of the things that flew in the past that allowed management teams to do what they wanted to do are not flying with investors anymore that want more control. especially big index funds that have taken a more active role in the market. meanwhile, you have private equity willing to say ok, let's be patient, while we also have co-investors, pension funds, that are willing to put more toward our deals. with that said, valuations are as high on average as they have been since 2000. the earning and return on these assets will be a more difficult thing movin

bloomberg's sonali basak. let's get a quick check of the headlines.of the biggest 2019 gainers in the information technology sector fell today. roku dropped as much as 5%. -- arevices are using used for streaming tv services. 150% ins risen almost 2019 and is the biggest gainer in the s&p 500. lexus does not have much to celebrate in the u.s. this year. 30 years ago, the debut of toyota's luxury brand shocked automakers. it has not been the market leader in the u.s. since 2010 and market share has fallen to 13%. lexus has been hurt by an aging vehicle lineup, increased competition, and inability to keep pace with bigger suvs. the billionaire index, the world's 500 wealthiest people, added $1.2 trillion to their fortunes. amazon founder jeff bezos still tops the list. he is worth $116 billion, just ahead of bill gates. youngestner became the self-made billionaire this year. .hat is your latest romaine: coming up, it is almost new year's eve in asia. china's decision to adopt a new interest rate regime. more on that ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine:

for now we bring in sonali basak. now we bring inwhat if the n it percent, doesn't all a talent leave? >> deutsche bank has been trying to turn around the banking unit. how do they retain talent will also cutting the bonus pool? remember, they are still considering the plan. choose to pay their top performance as much as they can so that they stay on board. they have also had a lot of hires this year as well. it is not that there is a big exit is so far. there are definitely top bankers leaving but people are coming in. what deutsche bank looks like a year from now will be an interesting story. amanda: put this into context with other banks, what are we expecting to see as far as bonus pools are concerned, making deutsche bank employees feel good or bad? bonuses across wall street are supposed to be down. somebody was telling me that they are expecting an arts and craft christmas as opposed to diamonds. vonnie: oh please! sonali: bonuses will be down across wall street, but investment banks are only so across wall str

with me is jason kelly, sonali basak, and patrick connor -- clark. the public markets have been shrinking. give us a sense of how much we have seen the public world contract. jason: it's dramatic. obviously, i'm here in the heart of it in san francisco, where companies stay private for longer. what that has meant is, over the last two decades, about half of the public companies have gone away, they are not publicly traded anymore, and that has been a boon here, companies stay in private for longer, but it has life implications for investors. a sense of whyt so many companies are deciding against going public, why they are sticking with private financing? the moneynly because is absolutely available. here in silicon valley, we talk about venture capital, but private equity, we are talking about $4 trillion plus under management when you talk about private equity writ large, including venture capital. all ofes of uber, lyft, these unicorns and roam around this part of the country, they can get money, they don't need to go public. lisa: you make an inte

sonali basak, natalie wong and lisa lee. let's begin with sonali. wework, not surprisingly, continues. there is a question of who will finance this company and softbank takes control. trying to get a loan deal done but there is something unique. please explain. sonali: softbank said we work as the co-borrower here. softbank had become intertwined since they got into this deal. softbank has been emerging as somebody that banks want to work with, despite the troubles that have happened, they are seeing portfolio companies, something to look out for next year is doordash. also a portfolio company in the vision fund, working with j.p. morgan for a credit facility here. lisa: softbank is listed as the main borrower. i found this fascinating. they are putting their own money and name on the block here. how much of a liability is this for softbank in a broad sense? and isolated case of them bringing it into their purview? are they going to bring other portfolios in? sonali: we work is a one-off given how far it has fallen from its peak. as both as you can

he joins us now, along with bloomberg's sonali basak.ounding of your fund, your up already 19%, beating your average annualized return, which itself stands around 28%. tell us about how you managed to do that. me.in: thank you for having in january, we talked about taking advantage of what was a turbulent q4 in 2018. there was quite a big snapback in the first quarter of 2019, so that was a big part of it. in addition, we look at some sectors that are likely to create capital growth over the next several years, but also have a running cash yield. one of those is in the listed alternative sector, a space where you have seen very strong returns this year as they have made structural changes to the companies. they are really growing and paying strong yields. buyout you talked about debt, but the year has gotten quite frothy. do you think next year is going to be a tough year for how that accent class performs? sachin: a lot of the credits that have run up a lot will go into trouble because they have been lifted by a resin kind of liquidity,

now we want to turn to sonali vasek. talking about banks, we have some numbers bloomberg put together about how many jobs are being lost. sonali: it is about 80,000 worldwide, and 80% of that is in europe. what is more surprising is the healthy u.s. banks, which are coming off a record your profitability also looking to cut as they expect times to get harder ahead. david: in fairness, every time we go through earnings season one of the questions is how are you controlling costs? it looks like there controlling costs. middle of january when their reporting earnings again. they want to see citigroup, morgan stanley, the ones we know cutting jobs, can they grow the revenue while they are cutting jobs? growth may slow into a tougher economic environment, which we do not know what will happen. they need to show profitability rising. david: the challenge is not getting rid of cost, it is keeping your revenue up. sonali basak, thank you so much for joining us. we now go to london and we will talk about the brexit negotiations.

sonali basak, natalie wong and lisa lee. let's begin with sonali.here is a question of who will finance this company and -- as softbank takes control. goldman sachs trying to get a loan deal done but there is something unique. please explain. sonali: softbank said we work as the co-borrower here. softbank and we work had become intertwined since they got into this deal. softbank has been emerging as somebody that banks want to work with, despite the troubles that have happened, they are seeing portfolio companies, something -- they have a big portfolio company. something to look out for next year is doordash. also a portfolio company in the vision fund, working with j.p. morgan for a credit facility here. lisa: softbank is listed as the main borrower. they are putting their own money and name on the block here. how much of a liability is this for softbank in a broad sense? case ofk in isolated this coming into their purview? are they going to bring other portfolios in? sonali: we work is a one-off given how far it has fallen from its peak. as both a

[laughter] sonali: some people love that off the record. is privately held firm, majority-owned by ken griffin. figures, he's really -- and remember, he earned $870 million from his hedge fund alone last year. people forget it is a massive part of his empire. people knew the scale, one out of every five trades in the u.s. now we are starting to put some numbers as to how big that operation really is. alix: huge numbers, which raises the question -- i am not going to ask if you are leaving to go butitadel, don't worry -- when you have huge flows of capital going to concentrated layers, where do you see it? sheila: in terms of the financial system, there's so much changing right now. you're seeing new entrants. you're seeing for banks in many ways. you are seeing banks try to reinvent themselves in a digital sense. i think that will be ongoing. but i think when you say the word bubble, it gets very particular to where you see people pushing to invest in this structural environment. whether it is talking about european banks or talking about i

sonali: he is. take the wall street angle on this because people forget how big the empire is of the people who founded guggenheim. a lot of private equity firms have empires outside of their investment empires, and todd gurley is particularly relevant here. he said this in an interview with erik schatzker earlier this year. his firm is on track to earn $5 million spanning sports, hollywood assets, dick clark productions. even outside of their investment empires, they are really benefiting from their sports and technology empires, too. alix: that's cool. sports, hollywood, and futuristic tech. sonali: i like following the money, but everyone likes following the outside a little bit. it is fun. alix: appreciate it. ,n today's women of wall street i'm looking at this crazy number, 250 years. it will take more than two and a half centuries for the economic gender gap to close, according to the world a comic forum. it's actually gotten -- the world economic forum. it's actually gotten worse in the last

bloomberg's sonali basak. -- sonali: so what is he saying he's going to do here?ion of financing and advisory towards things that target climate change. solomon is doing what a lot of investors are doing, saying, what is measurable? what can we tackle? on topof that, he is saying the government needs to step in as well. alix: also pulling back on certain financing, each other banks have started to do as well. sonali: and i'm glad he addressed the 1000 foot gorilla in the room, which is that goldman can't stop doing work with fossil fuel companies. the profitability matters here. so he addresses that up front in this op-ed, but also says goldman will do its part for the climate change initiative. alix: which is fair. he saying we can do both. we just have to do it differently. let's get to the next story, which is ubs. they were under pressure to restructure within six months, and did. sonali: what is happening here? they are starting to separate the riches of the -- the richest of the rich that are focused on investment banking activity. they have been focused on

kicking things off today is sonali basak.o to the banks because they are hedge fund favorite. earlier in the year, apple was a laggard, now you have the 84% rise. a lot of people gaining from apple. couldunster believing it rise another 20% next year. netflix started off the year strong. we had them drop off in the middle of the year. i wanted to remind everyone that hedge fund behind these big , netflix at around $330 a share. he believes in the next couple of years it could hit more than $1000 per share. in the third quarter of this year, others followed son dime into the stocks. they are riding the wave you see in the last few months of the year. let's see where it continues into 2020. apple is believed to be the leader of the pack once more. vonnie: excellent chart and very informative. defending his title from yesterday we have john hyland. john: i am also taking a look at the tech stocks like amazon, apple, microsoft and facebook that have led the nasdaq to new record highs. yesterday above the 9000 level for the first

alix: bloomberg's sonali basak, thank you very much.p, tom demark joining us for his analysis of the market. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on your bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: has the stock market rally run its course? we've got technical analysis with you -- analysis for you with tom demark. what are the indicators you are looking for? for some time, we've been looking for a market top. callne we recorded what we a perfected nine set up that identified below for us. thehe market -- identified low for us. as the market receded, we recorded likely peaks that appear as thirteens. unfortunately, we use the combination of timing and price projection, and our price projection was four points higher than the second 13 peak, and as a result, we stayed long throughout the entire period. we experienced a decline in august and late september, and states throughout that entire period. right now we are in the process that could occur today, tomorrow -- thatsday, that t

sonali: lucerne, they are growth companies, but they have quite a range. big companies, right? they are something a kim to blue-chip companies -- akin to blue-chip companies, not lesser names. some are more esoteric, like one in spain. but they are finding opportunities here among very widely known blue chips, and also lesser-known companies throughout italy, spain, and the continent. we will leave it there. appreciate it. bloomberg reminder, has all the charts you see on the network. the function on your terminal is g tv . those will be stored. i'm toronto and new york, this is bloomberg -- from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. a house panel said president trump trade of the nation for his own political gain. the house judiciary committee has released this is entered 50 page report detailing its rationale for impeachment. mr. trump faces two articles of impeachment by house democrats. of use of congress. a house will vote on wednesday. the vote is all but certain to result in the p

sonali: regulation is a big part of the story, but if you look at how much u.s.organ has a plan to expand their regional banking operation through europe. goldman sachs is going after european wealth clients. many banks are edging into frankfurt. they are looking for german deals which a bank used to dominate. even in europe, the u.s. banks are planning a big entry, but in the u.s. as well, even with all of the fear of low interest rates throughout the year, they have done well. there lending has held up. thatrgan, bank of america, have a huge consumer focus, have been blowing it out of the park. goldman sachs and morgan stanley have been benefiting from the volatility in the markets that are enough to keep investors coming back to the fray. scarlet: sonali basak thank you for joining us and ben jones of state street is staying with us. ben mentioned the tech stocks. take a look at u.s. futures. we see highs with the nasdaq futures leading the way, up .3% after the nasdaq closed about 9000 yesterday. i see gains in apple, tesla, alphabet, and this is after apple,

amanda: we are bringing in sonali basak. the revenue targets look ambitious quote the ceo.e receiving that information? >> a lot of investors were inspecting that they would have some headwinds. they are focusing on a lot of their retail operations. for him to say they are leaving on their investment bank is especially interesting given that they have downsized it so much. to see some signs of life in that business is exciting for some people and signs the turnaround is starting to take shape even though it will be long and costly. i think we have taken a conservative outlook on the interest rates. therefore in this regard we also changed our underlying planning. think we have lower for longer. that is part of our plan therefore we are prepared for that and we need to adjust in this regard our business model and we started to do that in july. they're talking about reducing their capital burden for next year. >> even though they are leaning on investment bank there have been a lot of changes. quarters since the beginning of 2017 heavy seen increases in fixed trading. to see

with me now is sonali parekh from the federation of small businesses.thdrawal agreement bill will pass through parliament and that will mark the end of the first phase of the brexit process. that is incredibly important for small businesses, and when we polled and surveyed members before the election we found that small business sentiment was in negative territory for the sixth consecutive quarter. only one in seven small businesses expected to increase their capital investment in the immediate future and only 23% of small—business exporters believed that their international sales would be increasing, so short—term certainty is incredibly important. what difference does it make if you are talking about from now until this time next year, basically? throughout the course of the year we have a couple of potential no deal cliff edge dates which are small businesses have had to contend with and that has come at a cost to them. now we have a short period of time in which to agree a trade deal with the eu and it is a challenging timetable but we stand ready t