sonali: how do you feel about this?o you think that the inflation story will ease enough to finally allow for a rate cut if it is warranted? >> we think that we are probably not going to see a multiple rate cut this year. there is that last mile that why you have been talking about for a while. we have seen cpi go down from 9% to 10% when it was at its peak, and it is really in that 2.5 or 3% range and it is ebbing and flowing. there is a strong labor market causing a wage inflation to remain high. we need to see that come down to start seeing a services differs -- disinflation where we are not really seeing it in the extent that we want to. the other place is where we have had a lot of headline news. and we have seen inflation coming down significantly but stays in that range which we are still not comfortable with. and lastly, goods inflation. we have seen a really light -- a really nice disinflation and that has stalled a little bit. now, is it going into the inflationary regime? i think it is early to tell. and the

sonali: -- >> for more on this, let's bring in sonali basak he did the conversation.is idea that private credit is booming. i mean, it is what everyone talks about constantly yet they don't have enough of the right people to actually invest and do the numbers on private credit. sonali: this has a lot to do with loss avoidance heated he said never hire an optimistic bond fund manager and the reason is because you cannot lose that much money. the point josh easterly makes at 6th street is you have to be right 99% of the time in the world of private credit. in venture capital, you can be a high performer. you are looking at upside but for private credit, it's about capping downside. he says a lot of the people are coming over from the investment banking industry into the private credit industry and the cultures are not the same. if you are an investment banker, you are looking to sell an asset , looking to get it off the books. scarlet: distribution. sonali: to private credit, you're making a bet and you better hope it's right. scarlet: private credit is a storage busine

sonali: people might be working longer.e talking about a mosaic of solutions but there is not one lever. fertility will not solve this because it takes 20 years. cost-cutting will not solve it because you are working within a band of what you can do so you will do all of it where it could potentially have a lot of countries putting incentives in place for infertility is and birth. a lot of countries have put in incentives for childhood education and retraining. there are a lot of countries trying to move the retirement age. ultimately, people over 65 still consume a lot. the other problem is a lot of people need a lot of money in the markets and in rising asset prices. and they made a lot of money and that helped a lot to support 65 and on when you are not receiving a paycheck. there has been a lot of shifts in the way it works. when you look back to the higher rate environment, do we increase 401(k) contributions in order to help incensed people to save more and have more when they are coming out on the other end and they

sonali: i am sonali basak. matt miller is off today. "bloomberg open interest" starts right now.of threats, president trump makes good on his pleng to impose tariffs on mexico and canada. threatening to hobble the u.s. economy and push up prices for consumers. businesses and investors bracing for that fallout.

sonali: powell heads to capitol hill.m oldman says openai is not for sale and blasts elon musk's tactics.

sonali: coming up, stocks slide in the bond yields to spike as cpi surprises to the upside.

sonali: for what? jonathan: i renovation i did not do but it still exists.ike me to share? lisa: i don't have a pinterest page. jonathan: i was surprised by my experience. i will share that another time. also things going on there that i did not realize. annmarie: i have a pinterest board. jonathan: amazon delivered a disappointing outlook. growth could be lonely, and the company could face capacity issues in the cloud computing division, echoing concerns from microsoft this week. stock down by 3%. lisa: this goes to the idea if this hold has four of the six magnificent seven stocks down after reporting earnings at a time where they cannot keep up with demand, which is a great problem to have, is this the beginning of a shift, where investors no longer tolerate massive expenditures because valuations are too high? even if you have wonderful words of promises of incredible things in the future, part of this is a deepseek moment and an excuse to sell at high valuations. annmarie: you forget they had a great holiday quarter. i find that interesting because they

. ♪ sonali: producer prices picked up on higher food and energy costs, highlighting limited progress

sonali: yesterday you told me the most important data point would be ism services, and it was, but it not necessarily even the headline number that came in softer grip the prices paid came in weaker, softer than expected. it speaks to the idea that inflation is not going to happen and increasingly, you have taken the risk of a possible rate hike off the table and increased risks of rate hikes. jonathan: i'm not sure that, required that much foresight. ism might be more important in adp, but i like it. i will accept the compliment. let's focus on sterling, 30 minutes until the bank of england rate decision and governor bailey might have to do something that no bank would like to do, down the -- downgrade the outlook for growth and upgrade the outlook for inflation. sterling at 1.2427. lisa: three weeks ago you saw the highest 10 year gilt yields going back to 19 98 and people speculated they would not have room to cut the rates with that higher inflation outlook and lower growth outlook. everyone still expected them to cut rates and who gave them the past? ism data showed prices were l

sonali: there is on the ground tension and international.ters at the munich security conference. definitely tension on the ground. oliver crook, we have you now. what do you make of jd vance's speech? hello that be received? -- how will that be received? oliver: very poorly from the bundestag. we have an election next week. the next bundestag will be can situated by 20% by the afd, the alternative for deutschland. that is precisely what was at the center of jd vance's speech. we are at the munich security conference about defense. we thought it was going to be about ukraine. that was part of the speculation. he spent little time talking about ukraine and physical defense. he went on a political manifesto about basically the virtues of free speech and promoting not just the america first attitude but values that drive that and saying you need more of that here in europe. he was talking about censorship on social media. he was lambasting mainstream political parties within not