back to you. >> steve liesman, thank you. >>> it's the new frontier for real estate. diane olick what's going on? >> it's crowd funding, tyler. some say it's bringing democracy back to our neighbors. others say it's the new wild west. we'll tell you why coming up next on "power lunch." (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." blackberry shares are again halted for news pending. the shares did finish before the halt down we'll call it about 5.5%. again, bbry, blackberry shares halted. no news yet but we know it's a news pending situation. tyler, we'll bring you more details as they become available to us here. back over to you. >> a

steve liesman spells out the stakes. >> reporter: for the departure of larry summers in the race to be the next fed chairman janet yellen as emerged as the front-runner. in a survey of money managers, 88% now expect president obama to nominate yellen to succeed ben bernanke. surveys showed they preferred yellen 5-1 over summers in part summers was seen as being less comfortable with the easy monetary policy compared to yellen. also uncertainty concerning someone like summers coming in and take over who has not been part of the current board and its policies. cnbc asked respondents to rate them on ten qualifications for the top job at the nation's central bank. in the overall score, summers finished last. yellen graded higher than sumners eight of ten categories including political and communication skill, monetary policy expertise, respect for other financial officials around the world and ability to manage a financial crisis along with banking regulatory expertise. there was some suggestion from the white house today that president obama could move the next couple of weeks to a point

now steve liesman has more on the fed's surprise announcement. what's next for the central bank and what it wants to see in the economy. >> ben bernanke and the federal market committee surprised markets in a big way today by not reducing the stimulus it's putting into the economy, maintaining its asset purchases at $85 billion, despite market expectations that it would begin reducing it today. the federal reserve chairman in his press conference offered three reasons. first, the fed doesn't have confidence in the improvement in the economy that it will last. second, that financial conditions, the rise in interest rates, could hamper growth in the future. finally, fiscal restraint. the idea that there could be a big debt ceiling debate, there could be a potential government shutdown, spooked the fed into thinking now is not the time to reduce the stimulus to the economy. but it was clear in the press conference that the fed chairman was very, very concerned about the rise in interest rates. >> the other factor, which was at play was an unwinding

stick around, steve liesman, a really big week for economic data. if you like it, we've got it for you, we have a global economist with principal global investors. good to have you with us, bob. >> good to see you. >> what's the most important thing for you, and will it change the equation in terms of whether or not the fed will go ahead and taper this month? >> oh, think the payroll report on friday is most likely the most important piece of information this week and it could change things if it was very weak, if it was in the 125 range or something like that, 125,000. that would be really weak, and it might change the dynamic that the fed is considering. our view is that it will probably be in the 110 to 200,000 range which i think would be viewed fairly positively and continue the trend that we've seen for several months, so we think we'll see a positive report. >> how positive, bob? like super good? >> well, i don't know about super good, but we think we could easily see 200000, perhaps a little above, and, you know, the real way this is calcula

joe's point with steve liesman earlier this hour was fascinating around government's impact on marketlity. in other words, we're in a new era. in the 90s, you had a period in the early 2000s where earnings drove, you know, the market movement, sector rotation drove market movement. today it's student body left, student body right. we're going to see the same thing going into next week. i think this deviciveness between ted cruz, senator cornan and senator mitch mcconnell is terrifying because it will set up for market vol this week. they'll do a deal in the end, but it's going to be shaky. >> they do a deal before we go over or after? >> they'll do a deal before. sometimes before the end of the month. they'll have to extend. probably taking it a month down the road. >> when you see a lot of volatili volatility, what are the implications? >> look at lax week. the vix got down below 80 again. the vix has something spent like above 30, it spent more time since lehman the past four years than it did in the previous 16. so every time we get into this complacent mode, you see a spike in vol

breaking news with steve liesman. steve, what are we looking at? >> mandy, thanks very much.ident richard fisher, plain spoken and open-speaking richard fisher speaking plainly and openly saying the white house has terribly mishandled the process for picking the fed chair and the fed must never be a political instrument. the choice of the next fed chair should not be a public debate and while he says that janet yellen, thought to be the frontrunner for the next fed chair is, quote, wrong on policy, she would make a great chairperson, according to richard fisher, and hope that the next time we go through this picking a fed chair it's done with more grace according to richard fisher. and then one more comment, peter help pe out. i would like to take a little booze out of the punch bowl and stop adding to the fed's balance sheets. mandy and brian, there is some comments from richard fisher. maybe saying what other people have thought but not said publicly. brian? >> wow. going right after the white house. >> that's unusual for a fed president to make those kind of comments about

steve liesman is back at headquarters with some results from the fed survey. steve? >> thanks, kel.managers how you would grade ben bernanke at the end of -- or coming to the end of his eight-year term. what's interesting, as you'll find here, as you'll see here, it's remarkably consistent. here are the results from the survey we did conducted thursday and friday. 48% of our 47 respondents giving him a b. 30% an a, 18% a c. a few, 4%, a d and an f. what you'll see in a second is how this is really a divided grade, from the beginning of the crisis till now. and now, look at this. this is amazing to me. we've asked this question over the past four years and the percentages are remarkably consistent, even while the players in the survey have changed. they keep giving 48% a b. a little bit better this time, but generally 26% and 18%, a c. and looking at the commentary, what people wrote in. what you'll see is they said ultimately it's really how he did at the beginning of the crisis and how he did at the end. john riding said from rdq, if we can go to the next one. if we can't, i'll rea

steve liesman is here. what is it, steve?federal reserve saying in the beige book that the economy expanded at a modest mod latt pace, pretty much what they said in the prior month but the underlying commentary is better. consumer spending was strong for automobiles and home goods. manufacturing expanded modestly. real estate increasing and also what we're hearing is limited inventories pushing up prices. interested to hear tntary. here's the focus like every month, focusing on real ta

friday every day in australia but get to steve liesman with the results of the exclusive -- you got theoke, right? the exclusive cnbc fed survey. >> they say don't schedule a meeting on wednesday in australia because you ruin two weekends. >> exactly right. >> i brought a lot of money here. i can ta say taper all i want. 20 bucks for you. here we go. >> give the results of your exclusive -- >> tale of the taper. i want to show you, up the average -- walk in front of my camera there. brian. >> i dmoents where to go. >> $14.5 billion the average. up from when we polled after the weak september, august employment report. so you know, 53% of our respondents say it will be $10 billion. that's where the majority is. so you know that's the average if you count everybody. 48% think the taper begins in september. announced tomorrow. the fed maintaining that level for about 3.5 months and end in 2014 in august. now, there's an interesting split between the market and fed when it comes to the outlook for interest rates. i want to show you this. you can see on the leaf is the average of -- left is

the rising stock market seems to be making believers of average investors as steve liesman has the datae it. steve? >> this is fascinating. we've been doing this all american survey for about six years. and much of that time, the market has been on the rise. but not investor optimism. come over here. i want to show you this. let's take a look at the green line. the green line, pretty decent level when we started this early. '08, '09 it ticks down. then it's been rising inexora y inexorably. look at the blue line. anybody with money in the market, you can see here it's been below 50%, first of all. as the market has risen, up until about here which we're going to talk about in a second, investor optimism has stayed very, very low. finally, right here, maria. it looks like we have some believers in this market rise. what's it taken? it's taken headlines saying dow at all time high. one after another. finally, we have a situation where the market is rising and so is investor optimism. what we just put on there, this light blue line, are those investors with more in the market, more than $5

steve liesman here with results of our cnbc/fed survey, right, steve? >> yeah, that's right.back after the break we'll show you what top market experts think about the coming military action in syria, if that's a concern of theirs, about the debt ceiling debate, will that be a bruising debate or not and the taper and the fed when "power lunch" returns. [ male announcer ] at his current pace, bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two kids and a mortgage. luckily, he found someone who gave him a fresh perspective on his portfolio. and with some planning and effort, hopefully bob can retire at a more appropriate age. it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. my customers can shop around-- see who does good work and compare costs. it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, treatment options and estimates for how much i'll pay. that helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. i don't like guesses with

steve liesman in the studio. says a jump, a jump to 309,000 from an awkwardly revised 294,000. i'm not sure how many states are reporting. but maybe it's close to 50 today. 309,000's the number. draw your own conclusions. if we look at always a week in a rear as the continuing claims, 2.78 million, it's dipping below 2.8. i'm not sure how to interpret these numbers. that's up to you. if we look at another number, second quarter, showing an account balance. this is basically the cousin to the trade balance. arguably a bit worse. inching closer to $100 billion. this is minus 98.9, little worse than we were looking for. and our last look, which was over 100 billion, minus 106 originally reported was carved out to about 105 billion. 270 is what i see on the yield from a technical point of view. tomorrow being a friday, if we close under 274 in yields, i would think there's going to be continued pressure, a lot of yield curve wiggles. the five-year, you know, mr. gross was on yesterday and he was actually a bit giddy

steve liesman is here with me. ever catch one of these? >> i have. >> how? >> two of them, in fact. 1988, when florida first reopened alligator hunting, i did a story on reopening it. >> take a look at that. >> i was in the middle of lake okeechobee with two alligators under my feet. >> there you go. because it's hunting season down in mississippi, this group caught what has to be the winner, right near the mississippi river is where they found him, 13 feet and 720 pound and took the crew, including the ups driver, two hours to reel is in. what's their motto? it's logistics. we lovullo gistics. logistically had to be just right to get that thing. >> larry dupuis was the operator of the boat and said his family had been illegally hunting them for many years and finally happy when they legally did it. >> did it in a big way. >> a bad day for the reptile. >> yes. >> but a really good day for economics. >> that's right. >> especially ism. >> two good reports, both giving the fed leeway to reduce quantitative easing, how is that for transition, that's if the fed wants to do it. the data

of course, steve liesman knows that, and he has the results of a new cnbc fed flash. it's a flash survey. take it away. >> reporter: hey, david. it's a small one we do quickly, as opposed of the one we do ahead of the meeting. the market believe the fed's plans were shaken but not stirred by today's jobs report. you can see here when we asked people what happens to your belief in what does the august jobs report do to your belief in tapering, september, 62% say less likely. october, about even. and december, you can see 32% more likely. a little shift in the thinking that maybe it happens, maybe undercutting the sense it's september. however, when we look at what month people think the month will happen in, what you see is the plurality, 43% still point to september, though they've reduced the average amount of taper expected from $19 billion in our prior survey to $13 billion. you can see there 48% had picked september, and the average month, because you have to include the outlying month is november 2013, the average month for ending qe is august 2014. that, at leas

we'll bring in steve liesman and simon hbo hobbs for power lunch. you're the go-to guy when the procedures come up. can you walk us through the procedure in what you have to go to once you get into that lockup room. >> we sign some document that says we're not going to disclose this before the embargo time. once do that. you go in at about 1:30 or so, somewhere between there, they lock the doors at a quarter to 2:00. at about ten of they give you the statement, you read it and take notes on it. we're all -- if we're on wi-fi we're connected through the fed system into that's my question, how do they control that. >> at two minutes before, they escort you out to -- tv reporters out to the camera locations and you're only allowed to say a specific day of the menu. food from the menu that day to give a sound check and only tell you that just before so you can't say in code to the people ahead of time. >> i see. >> if i say check one three four it's there. you just have to say the menu or that's it. at 2:00, you're then allowed to give the statement. >>

i want to bring in steve liesman, senior economics reporter. i saw you shaking your head sort of -- >> not while i was talking, was he? >> yeah, it was. >> i'm going home. >> josh raises an interesting point. so what should we really expect for tomorrow? >> okay. i think josh is close, but i was just having a minor problem with what you were saying. >> okay. >> we can exaggerate for television if you like. >> please. >> what we're talking about is the mix of the taper. >> yeah. >> it's a really good point you make. i don't think they go positive. i think what they do is they reduce treasuries more than they do mbs. >> right. >> that's what i would look for tomorrow. the numbers that come out, we'll get a total, which will be, like, it's $85 billion. >> right. >> and it'll be somewhat less. the split is what we're looking for. i want to show you what the cnbc survey shows about what to expect tomorrow. what the average is. we'll get more detailed than usual here, because what you'll see is the taper amount is seen as about 14.5 billion. that's k

>> steve liesman here. can you tell us whether larry summers was asked to withdraw his nomination or name from nomination from the fed chairmanship or was that something that came up on his own? now that he's out of the process, who are the leading candidates and what's the timetable now for choosing a new fed chairman? >> well, it's not going to shock you as has been the case for the last couple months, i'm not going to speculate on personnel decisions. the president decides them and announces them. as to your first question, yes, larry decided to remove himself. larry is an honorable public servant and while he was willing to serve, he did not want to serve or be nominated if he felt it was going to be a distraction from the policy issues and the economic issues that he cherished most and so he made his own decision, an honorable decision, i think, to withdraw because he felt that his confirmation process for himself might be distraction from the important economic issues the president was pushing forward

we're looking for overall improvement in the labor market. [ inaudible ] >> steve liesman with cnbc.irman, one question, just three parts f you don't mind. have you indicated to president obama you did not want to serve a third term? if so, when? or did president obama indicate he did not want you to serve a third term? those two parts notwithstanding, would you serve a third term if asked either wholly or in part? thank you. >> it's convenient because i have the same answer to all three parts of your question. if you will indulge me a little longer, i prefer not to talk about my plans at this point. i hope to have more information for you at some reasonably soon date. but today i want to focus on monetary policy. i'd prefer not to talk about my own plans. >> washington post. you mentioned that tighter fiscal conditions are a concern for the committee as you think about whether or not it's appropriate to reduce asset purchases. what do you all expect to be able to do in the future when you actually do begin to pull back on your asset purchases, to manage expectations and manage marke

who knows where the scale will go once we get to 51. >> steve liesman, you hear these stories, you hearkinds of stories from gentlemen like wayne. >> i do. >> the data would suggest, at least according to mark zandy, it's having an impact. what's the real story? what do we do about it? >> mark's data, which is the adp we'll get tomorrow, is inconclusive, and that's what i'm seeing in the data. there has been a very recent spike in part-time workers as a percentage of full time, but it's not out of bounds for what we've seen. if you look at a chart i put together here, scott, this looks at part-time as a percentage of the total workforce. and what you see is it's about 19.6%. the big jump happened after the recession. since then, we've been bouncing around. now, i guess you could argue -- and this is the plausible argument -- that the number hasn't come down more than it otherwise would, and you can see at the end of the chart a little blip up. but then you look at the next chart, and this is part-time growth versus full-time growth, and what you see is that full-time growth has now ecli

steve liesman, let's go through some of the things ben bernanke said. he said the downside risks have, in fact, diminished. that's a positive for the core fundamental story here, although not ready yet to actually begin to pull away the punch bowl given the fact that the growth numbers that we're talking about are still considered anemic. >> yeah, maria, having covered this for the last five years, this financial crisis and the innovative and creative response of the fed to, it i find policy right now and the outlook about it inskrutable as i ever have. i think things are confusing and i think the outlook is confusing. i heard bernanke say three things. one, they don't have confidence in the outlook. the second is financial conditions have tightened and they're concerned about that. and the third is concerns about fiscal restraint. when i puzzle this through about when the fed will ever actually be able to tighten, you think about better growth. the fed talks about tapering. rates rise. and then ultimately you have this concern about growth and then the

steve liesman here with his exclusive survey. fascinating stuff. we put this survey together every quarter. i was trying to figure out how to ask it. obamacare or the affordable care act? why not put the question to the american people. so what we did, folk, in this survey, 800 american around the country, we asked half what you think of obamacare, the other half when they think of the affordable care act. let's start here. what you see is this is the percentage. about 20% or so positive on the affordable care act. 25% or 30% negative don't even know what the affordable care act is. now, let's show you what people think of obamacare. you see positives go up above 25% here. and then quite a bit more negative here. we talked about why that is, and unsure. >> they just know they don't like it when you call it obamacare. >> wait till you see who doesn't like it. let's go down to the next thing which is men and women. this is men on obamacare. you can see very similar to the rest of the country here. now let's go, again, take a look at -- you layer in w

back to you. >>> let's bring in steve liesman. steve, this number's for real.ht. yeah, let's recap. we had two weeks of bad data because california and nevada were updating their systems. >> nevada. nevada. i learned the hard way. >> i know. nevada or nevada. >> the whole thing, you didn't read it. >> i didn't read it. >> the people of nevada, they're begging you. it's not optional. it's not optional. >> can i talk about california and the other state? >> did you know california was one? >> nevada was the other. >> nevada was the other one. >> do you feel less urbane. >> nevada, i said it the way she said it. >> that's right. >> why did you look at me -- >> no, you said nevada. >> so california and nevada. >> all right. what i'm trying to say is. >> you killed her with vigilante and everything else. >> peter orszag. >> or-zog. >> orszag. >> i'm going to get the wrap. you've got two guests coming up at 40. the two states have cleared their backlogs. the 305 is real, which means what we thought was not a real decline was real. also, go the a little bit of confirm

that's what matters. >> the next one, he'll have a plug for my buddy steve liesman. appen today. >> steve's survey said 48% expected it today, which means 52% don't expect it today. >> you going to play with any of the m.i.t. economic models? you know, you have to make various judgments. >> yes. >> and so, an affirmative can be 51% or higher. just to throw that -- >> it's a coin toss today. it's a coin toss. by the end of the year, most people will think it happens. but today, a coin toss. >> this is my favorite, i was smelling this scent before anyone. this isn't a titan. >> oh, god, that couldn't be more wrong. three years ago, dudley told us -- that's the new york fed president -- $600 billion of purchases was equivalent to 75-basis point cut. decreasing purchases is a tightening. now, it's not a major tightening, or, as bernanke said, we're taking our foot off the gas. what happens when you take the foot off the gas? the car slows. what happens when you -- >> no, no, no, only slows when you hit the brake. >> it slows more, but it still slows -- >> especially if yo

steve liesman with us onset. hey, rick. >> hi. 6.29 is september's read.g index. the last time we were at a level of 6.29. we don't have to go back far because may's number was minus 1.43. obviously it's a bit of a disappointment. i'm not sure this number would change the complexion of strength in equities, slight reversal. fairly decent size reversal with the fixed income markets. we all know the reasons. it seems like it's autumn for summer. back to you. >> i couldn't help but think whether you could have made it to washington to be on the set with andrew with barney frank and chris dodd, rick. i don't know. i'm not sure -- >> all the champions of free markets, absolutely. >> my favorite line was that from '95 to '06 they really couldn't do anything about the housing crisis or fannie and freddie because the republicans were in charge. so barney's hands were tied during that period, rick. >> oh, yeah. >> i don't think the housing crisis would've ever happened with sort of the intimation there. >> well, you know, so much of it gets revised and synthesized

steve liesman?went into a number like this with almost, you know, completely unadulterated optimism everywhere? >> that makes me nervous. >> we're always wrong. >> it is hard to remember the market being so quite so uniformly positive about job gains like this. ubs among a handful of wall street forecasters that upped the forecasters yesterday going into this number, ubs is up to ten down from 170. >> ism. >> exactly. >> 175 is the number here. but we just did a crash survey, whatever you want to call it, of 12 economic forecasters. and their numbers actually more like 190 up from 180. >> is that the whis per number? >> i don't know, if you took the tik to figure it out, the 11 guys including ubs, goldmanment they're not necessarily quite so high. capital economics. so here's the reason behind the optimism. the claims numbers, the four week moving average is the lowest since 2007. it's not one of the best jobs. it's one of the best ones out there. but this low level of claims or high level of claims

for more on the data, let's get to steve liesman. ng i do is interesting, so we're going to have to ask -- >> i'm ready. >> you're not objective. >> no, i'm ready to tell the government. listen, next time, we're going to skip your inflation numbers for a while. >> right. >> when you have something -- >> tell us, let us know. >> there are a few things worth mentioning. prescription drugs up .08, and medical care up .06. pushes up the overall index. i'm trying, airline fares down 3.1%. that could interest people out there. and what else is there? nothing else to talk about. fuel housing fuels, down -- that's it, i'm done. >> okay. >> all right. >> now i want to bring in joel -- >> yes, because we want to talk about what rick just said is going to be the most interesting market story he's seen in a long time. >> i've got a lot of things. start with what's interests you. >> well, i want to go back. rick made the point, this is going to be one of the biggest stories he's seen in a long time. whether the fed tapers tomorrow and if so, by ho

steve liesman joins us now with more of the details.s an interesting development here. i want to walk you through the history of this poll we've done, 800 americans across the country. we've been at this for about six years now. i know it's a lot of squiggly lines. i'm going to try to explain to you how to focus. the green line here, that's the dow jones industrials. it's been going um for about five years. now i want you to focus on this darker blue line here. what's been happening to investors sentiment. in this poll we ask people is this a good time to invest or a bad time to invest. so as the market has gone up, people'ssentiment to invest has come down. translation, average investors have missed this uptick in the stock, until right now. call it in the march time period for the first time in five years what we've seen is the dow has gone up and so has investors sentiment come along with it. we have two groups, the first group is all investors, anybody with any money in the market. and the light blue line are those with more than 50

and you can hear more from the new york fed chief in that exclusive interview with steve liesman at 6. where does that leave us? markets ahead of fixed income. interesting note, treasury yields just heading lower again today. and we're as clear as mud, really, aren't we on the fed. >> it's clear they have pulled back from the brink because -- >> i don't think it's clear at all, is it? >> it's clear that they don't have enough clarity, in a sense. so we will wait, i will expect, not really until january at the earliest which will be bernanke's last meeting that we will get any tapering. but really, i think the underlying message here, they aren't doing the things that they don't want to be seen to be stupid to have the debt ceiling crisis go wonky and all of a sudden they have to reverse -- >> you said they didn't do it because of the economy and now you're saying they didn't do it -- >> read through the lines. they don't have confidence in the politics. they haven't got sufficient confidence in the economics, either. >> but do they risk an each bigger -- we saw the market turmoil. do

steve liesman has been taking a look behind the fed's move.ort from washington. >> ben bernanke and the federal market committee surprised markets in a big way today by not reducing the stimulus it's putting into the economy, maintaining its asset purchases as $8 a billion despite market expectations that it would begin reducing its today. the federal reserve chairman in his press conference offered three reasons. first, they don't have confidence in the economy that it will last. second, that financial conditions, the rise in interest rates could hamper growth in the future. timely, fiscal restraint, the idea that there could be a big debt ceiling debate swooped the fed into thinking now is not the time to reduce that stimulus to the economy. but it was clear in the press conference that the fed chairman was very, very concerned about the rise in interest rates. the other factor which was at play was an unwinding of excessively risky and leveraged positions in the markets and insufficiencies of liquidity in some cases meant that those unwindi

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let's bring in steve liesman and jim from american enterprise institute. steve, go to you first. what do you think of this whole discussion as to whether the president's hand here at home would be weakened when it comes to setting policy and specifically related to choosing the next fed chairman, and also what do you think the time frame is as we sit today? >> i think it's something we'll hear about in the next month from the white house. i would expect. so, obviously if bob pisani says you have to give it a second thought, and i've been thinking about this, the only thing wrong with what bob is bringing out is how seriously does the president or the administration view the opposition to larry summers in congress? to the extent this opposition is on his left, i'm not precisely sure that he sees that opposition as all that great or all that difficult to overcome. it's my understanding -- i don't think the republicans are going to go after larry on the fed chairmanship. i think what the republicans would like to do is step back and see democrats kind of go at each other right there

steve liesman has details. it is extraordinary. >> these are extraordinary comments from three fed presidents today. we begin with richard fisher, who said the white house has, quote, terribly mishandled the process for picking the next fed chair. the dallas fed president saying the choice of the next fed chair should not be a public debate and he said vice chairman yellen, one of the front-running candidates for the job to be picked by president obama, is wrong on policy but what make a great chairperson. fisher reiterating his opposition to the current fed policy saying he would like, quote, like to take a little booze out of the punch bowl. i'm not making this up. that's what he said. stop adding to the balance sheet. and he said the fed's credibility is called into question after the fed decided not to taper despite market expectations last week. moving on to atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. said it's hard to see hitting the conditions for an october taper. the economy is unlikely to change much by th

steve liesman is here. what is it, steve? >> reporter: the federal reserve saying in the beige book that the economy expanded at a modest mod latt pace, pretty much what they said in the prior month but the underlying commentary is better. consumer spending was strong for automobiles and home goods. manufacturing expanded modestly. real estate increasing and also what we're hearing is limited inventories pushing up prices. interested to hear tntary. here's the focus like every month, focusing on real estate. richmond in boston saying homes were spending less time on the new york and new york saiding bidding wars common in buffalo and minnesota and dallas and chicago strong home construction and in san francisco you can't find construction workers. what about lending standards that folks focus on, this is very unchanged though lending activity improved. strong competition though for quality borrowers was hurting some banks that were following the rules but outside they were able to go outside the banking system and get financi

our resident fed head himself, steve liesman joins us with the result of said survey. >> thanks.nt back into the field yesterday after summers left on sunday -- or took his name out for consideration for the nomination and asked our wall street economists and strategists and fund managers who they think president obama will pick. and the percentage is, hands down, janet yellen. right here, pictured right here. 88% of our respondents think janet yellen will win. 6% went for don kohn. 2% for ferguson. there's our chart. 88% think obama will appoint janet yellen. we also asked, who do you think president obama should appoint? yellen scores highly. 57% say obama should appoint yellen. 11% for john taylor. larry summers, 7%. don kohn, 5%. ben bernanke, 5%. not sure if that's possible. here's the average taper amount, 14.5 billion from our respondents. that's up from september after the jobs report. but it's down from where it was, $22 billion, back in july. i can tell you, though, $14.5 billion is misleading in the sense that over half of our respond ens picked $10 billion as the amou

. >> steve liesman, he did zero in on 6.5% unemployment, later to 7%. today he was not picking any specific numbers. he did backpedal out of that one. zooe-l. >>? part. 6.5% remains as threshold for raising rates with interest rate. he didn't mention the 7% threshold for essentially ending quantitative easing. that was missing today. i agree with greg totally about being at sea and not being what the guidance is. ip to come back to this notion of being a hamster on a treadmill. the fed goes ahead, the economy gets a little better. fed says we're going to taper, rates rise, fed comes through and says, you know what, rates are up too much. i'm not going to taper. and so, this can go on forever. and if the rise in rates right now is too much, then, you know, and somebody earlier said, well, the fed is telling the market, if you get down to 2.5%, i'll taper. the bond market has no incentive. that's not an incentive for the bond market to say, i'll bring it down so the bond will taper. i like that notion of being at sea, if you can layer in that notion of a

. >> since we're zeroing in i would like to bring in steve liesman. you were in lockup last wednesday on fed day. walk us through the process here and how something maybe could have happened? >> so, the doors open for the lockup room at 1:30. not closed until a quarter of two and then the doors are closed and you're not allowed to come or go at that point of time. at 10 of they give you a copy of the statement and we are busy how you're going to report the news at 2:00. >> you signed an agreement. >> previously to the disclosing information outside the embargo. two minutes of, television reporters are walked to a location and we are not allowed to say anything but a scripted -- they pick a day of the menu. a day of the week's from the menu and you -- only that as a sound check and that's it. at 2:00 you two. >> let me say two things, i doent believe you did despite what other people -- >> who me? >> it's a joke. in january the natural gas data come out early and trades from the eia. in june the ism and michigan confidence come out early and be traded

economics is talking fed at their meeting out in san francisco but how big a meeting can it be if steve liesmantella men aren't playing? >> that would be a sign of a serious meeting but they're serious -- >> what are they talk about? >> the national association of business economics, looking for better growth, lower unemployment and a taper. they're out with their survey for the quarter and after dipping in this quarter down to 2.3% from $2.5% in the second gaerts, gdp rising, up steadily. the blue axis on your left there. that will happen by the middle of next year according to the 43 economists who responded to the survey. unemployment now, the next chart, creeping steadily down from the current level of 7.3%. it will be 7% by this time next year. according to the forecast. economists say there's a 45% probability of the fed tapering this year and 80% probability it happens by next year. the cnbc flash fed survey, a different way approach to the question conducted friday after the unemployment report found 43% of our respondents believe the fed will taper in september. you can see by looking

i think bonds will get it again, steve liesman is reporting the feds will do everything they can. it's all good for bonn right now i don't think we should get it. >> what are the key levels and how low do you think yields can go? >> i don't think they go much below that. if they did, somewhere in the heads of the fed, or else the chairman would have never mentioned it at noon. i think taper talk resurfaced. the they saying, he's said that kind of stuff and picked up one full handle. >> jimmy, i tell you, that's the first fed official i heard that said they could add stimulus to the markets. >> i heard that, too. >> gentleman, we will put it on the bond. tune in, futures now doubt cnbc at 1:00. we will have dennis gartman the commodities king. he is bullish on stock, more bullish. this is the futures now, you don't want to miss. >> jackie, we won't. 1:00 on cnbc.com. up next, ackman moving on. is it a reason to boy the stocks? whether ackman has the touch. inside this year's hottest way to trade. we will get a look at what etf investors are boying with one of the industry's biggest

steve liesman is the man we turn to. e with the exclusive results from the cnbc all-american economic survey. steve, give us your findings. >> mandy, interesting results from our survey. 812 americansled. some of the first to ask p potential economic effects. these are early day, but take a look at what we found over here believe their premiums are up because of the afrdable care act. 43% say they're up because they go up every year. 3% say their hours were cut. 3% say they lost private coverage. just 1% say they have gained coverage. these three here i should warn you are within the margin of error in the poll. 3.4%. it could be 6. it could be 0. just be careful with that early days. to be finding this, we asked a lot of experts, and what they told us is it's possible there have been some increase in premiums because of aca early on as insurers have folding this pretend tif care, no cap on lifetime insurance. they don't believe this number of 18%. so when you look at whauz pushing this number, what you find is here's a p

take a listen to what new york fed president william dudley told cnbc's own steve liesman. >> in my mindg to decide to reduce the pace of asset purchases from the current $85 billion pace requires two things in my mind. number one, improvement in the labor market, and number two, confidence that the economy is strong enough to support that improvement in the future. >> all right. question before the house tonight is bill dudley's easy money stand right or wrong as the president of the new york fed, by the way, the vice chairman of the open market committee, and he's, therefore, a permanent voting member and important influential guy. let's bring in dave malpass and jim pethokoukis of american enterprise institute. jim, is bill dudley correct? do we need a highly accommodative monetary policy? >> listen, first i would like to say that i am based on your fed tightening in 2085, maybe 2103 call, i am shifting all the assets in the pethokoukis family fortune, so don't back out on me on that one. >> that's what i'm hearing. i don't think the fed funds rate goes up until 2110. >> if i were bil

steve liesman is looking at what really matters to the fed and the whole discussion about tapering possibly ahead. >> sue, the most important number to my mind for investors on wall street, the decline of the unemployment rate that came largely because people dropped out of workforce this. presents a quandary for our central bank, the federal reserve. the numbers i'm talking about, august up 169, right around expectations, the july revisions, that's 74,000, that's my mistake. unemployment rate 7.3%. that was better than expected. earnings, okay. average workweek okay. participation rate down two ticks to 63.2%. the unemployment rate dipping to 7.3 is halfway to where the fed forecast it would end all quantitative easing, but the drop attributed almost entirely, 300,000 dropping out of the workforce presenting a problem for the fed. is there really that much slack in the labor force, or have people dropped out for good? some of the commentary, how can the fed still taper? we just heard that. pantheon saying it should be enough to taper. rdg saying it's disappointing, will make the taper deba

steve liesman is here with the headlines. >> we will's get to those interesting comments in a moment, but i want to first report on the strong comments from kansas city fed president, voted against the fed decision at the meeting earlier this week, not to reduce stimulus to the economy. here's what george said. she is disappointed by the fed decision not to taper. the fed faces challenges to its credibility and predictability. the fed risk confusing its message on the taper and needs to be more clear about the path of future rates and the fed needs credibility to ask the markets to trust forward guidance in the future. she thought a lower unemployment -- the lower unemployment rate and sufficiently positive data was enough for the fed to taper at the wednesday meeting. and she said the fed is not taking into account the potential costs of qe. and markets she said could sometimes get it wrong and the fomc cannot let markets dictate policy. let's talk about those comments that sue told us about from st. louis fed president jim bull hard in the past few minutes. he's talked but this is n

our steve liesman are matt cuddy were the people for cnbc in that room.and about ten minutes to they hand out the fed decision so reporters can pore over it. i'm told reporters had access to electronic devices in that room at that time. and the question here is for the print reporters or the people filing on the wires and low latency feed agency, the question was what access and what did they have access to hook up with. >> if we're allowed to walk in with a blackberry and they open the door and everybody runs. is that a better solution. >> they open the door now at 1:58 and escort steve liesman up to the balcony and make sure he didn't transmit any information at all. >> touch your right ear, your left here. >> you could come up with a code if you're a nefarious person. >> that's bad news. >> jim cramer will join us from the new york stock exchange right after this. >>> let's get down to the new york stock exchange with jim cramer. big news this morning with strikers buying macos. interesting, this has always been the son of isrg. it looks like they bail

for the moment thank you, steve liesman with the latest on the fed.ut from the london whiale. the bank is to pay almost $1 billion in fines. they're also extracting a rare admission of wrong doing from ceo jamie dimon. kayla tausche has more on that back at hq. >> good morning, simon. it's just one chapter in the london whale trading factor. the firm said it would pay the $920 million to four regulators that have been investigating the situation for over a year, $200 million to the federal reserve, $200 million to the s.e.c. the s.e.c. settlement came with the rare admission of guilt acknowledging to the agency that its giant months-long derivative trade violated federal securities law. jamie dimon said in part, quote, we've accepted responsibility and acknowledged our mistakes from the start and we have learned from them and worked to fix them ". steps undertaken demonstrate substantial and healthy introspection as well as the seriousness of a commitment to a strong control environment. it just -- it seems like the regulatory issues keep on coming, e