steve liesman looks at whether draghi got it right and the risks that still remain. >> reporter: the economy has been so tough in europe that the only bulls you can find are like these. the ones in the running of the bulls in spain. but now there are real economic bulls. people not running from a ton of angry feet but who are actually optimistic on the european economy. >> we think qe will work. it will help the exchange rate as the exchange rate moves lower and europe a lot more competitive. better news in general for the continent. >> reporter: mario draghi announced much anticipated quantitative easing program on march 9th buying 60 billion euros of public and private bonds a month from now until at least september 2016. he said it will turn around the economy and ecb predicting upward growth from the prior forecast. best of european gross since 2011. the 2016 outlook also raised. >> in an environment of improving business and consumer sentiment, the transmission of our measures to the real economy will strengthen contributing to a further improvement in the outlook for economic g

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> still ahead, strong as steel? not so much. why some companies in the sector >>> federal trade commission made the decision in 2012 not to sue google for alleged anti-trust violations. as reported by "the wall street journal" and based on a confidential report google's search algorithm would place its own services above those of its competitors in search for results. fdc experts wanted to sue the company but instead settled the the investigation in 2013 when google agreed to change business practices. >>> av steel the latest to warn about profit outlook. reason? the imports of the metal flooding the market increasing supply and lowering prices. shares of ak steel fell 3.5%. the company isn't alone. morgan brennan takes a look at why the sector is coming under. >> reporter: american steel companies have been on the front line of the so-called currency wars. starting with ak steel. shares of the ohio based steel manufacturer tumble today after the company warned of a first quarter loss as shipments fell 14%. why? a flood of steel

look at there, steve liesman talking to somebody.ng to probably hear a question from him in a minute. the federal reserve chair janet yellen's news conference should start around 2:30 eastern time. the dow loving the stance from the fed. it is up 150 points. the dollar falling against the euro. let us bring in janus capital group's bill gross. are you surprised by the fed? >> i think they did what they should have done. i'm a little surprised in terms of the dovishness yes. they dropped "patient" and my new word is prudence. and the fed expressed prudence and concerns going forward. they expressed concern about the potential for inflation. they expressed concern about to potential for global weakness in international development which is code for a strong dollar. and they expressed concern in terms of the employment situation not threatening inflation going forward. prudence is their new word and perhaps they lag that june hike that i thought was going to occur. >> are you going to change your projection? is june out of the cards now

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >> mark zandi joining us now. welcome back. good to see you. >> thank you, sue. >> how do you interpret the data? we were saying yes, job growth is good but has it slowed down a little bit from what we've seen recently? >> yes, it has slowed but it's off from a very torrid pace over the last three months we've created over a million jobs. that's over 300 k. that's not sustainable but 200,000, 250,000, i think that's where we are. that's a pretty good number by any historical standard. i think the economy is in good shape. >> 3.3 million new jobs over the past year a long time for that. unemployment down in every single state. it's been decades since that has happened. why doesn't it feel better mark? >> i think it's wage growth. you know despite the very strong job growth there are so many unemployed and underemployed. it's taking a while to absorb all of those potential workers but the good news is at the current rate of job growth by mid next year i think we'll be back to full employment which means everyone who wants a job w

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> all right. still ahead, moving america. the fastest growing business in transports and how it's helping drive ec >>> poultry producers saw their shares slug today on news of a bird flu outbreak. there are confirmed cases in missouri and arkansas. the government said this strain poses no health risk to humans but that's not stopping investors from selling. shares of tyson, pilgrim's pride and sanderson farms all closed 7% lower. >>> sales pharmaceuticals where we begin market focus. endo international making an offer to buy sai lix as it seeks to up end valiant pharmaceuticals. endo topped it with a nearly 12 million bid. sai lix popping 7%. valium tumbled about 4%. retailer express posting results that beat estimates. current outlook also topped the consensus. one thing that helped quarterlies was less promotional activity. shares up 3.5% to $53.47. general electric weighing deeper cuts to ge capital. could even part with the unit amid pressure from investors to exit that business. shares rose a fraction at ge today to $25.

. >> steve liesman has more on vice chair fisher's speech today in new york and the road ahead for rates. >> reporter: federal reserve vice chairman stanley fisher said the fed will likely hike interest rates this year but gave no clue as to what month, if he said it was june or september or some date in between or some date after, that essentially the increase will be from a fund rate to a low funds rate. >> here's how he put it. when we raise the interest rate as we probably will do one d from 0% to 25%, -- from zero to 25 to 25 to 50 basis points to an extremely expansionary monetary policy. >> reporter: as to what conditions the fed will look for when deciding to raise interest rates, they're looking for further improvement in the labor market and confidence that inflation is heading back to the 2% target. fisher was also asked about exchange rates and the strengths of the dollar. and he said as far as he could tell the fed has looked and it does not appear to be currency manipulation. >> what is not acceptable is manipulating exchange rates, purely exchange rates, trying to use that

and steve liesman was there. >> atlanta federal reserve president still sees a rate hike from the central bank likely this year. maybe as soon as june or late as september. but he said the economy was soft right now and the strengthening of the dollar is a bigger factor than he thought it would be. >> in the beginning when the dollar declined i was prepared to to some extent dismiss the influence of the dollar as being not great because our economy is not so export dependent but i'm upgrading it as a factor to watch. >> said economic weakness from of a dollar likely transitory. engage the conference to bring together 1300 students from around the country for a two-day deep dive into finance and economics. also one of the engaged panels td ameritrade president said recent stock market volatility up 200 down 200 another day is here to stay and connected it to potential interest rate increases by the federal reserve. >> i've been saying for six or nine months now that there's so much stimulus in this system for monetary stimulus for the federal reserve banks, most of the developed world to b

for "nightly business report," i'm hampto >>> steve liesman is with us now to talk more about the fed chair's speech this evening and economic growth. as i heard the chair, i heard her rather bullish about the u.s. ecomy, but concerned, did she not miss the moment to raise interest rates? not to be too late to do so? >> those are all the same things tyler. she's bullish on the economy given what's happening right now, the softness of the economy. she said it will come back and expects it to come back. she expects the labor market to remain strong. what i thought she did was say, you know don't be too complacent on when we start, by when we start, you can be somewhat complacent. we will be very gradual. very important she mentioned sweden and japan two countries that have tried to leave zero interest rates, put their tail between monetary policy legs and went scurrying back to zero. >> steve, she mentioned inflation and as i read it she mentioned the fact that they like some more inflation in the economy but inflation is not going to be the only measure by which they judge when to rais

i'm sorry about that. >> steve liesman, what do you think of what steve just said? we'll get back to you, diane. >> i think it depends a lot on your outlook. i think i'm a little more bullish than steve, but i don't think that's saying very much about how bullish i am. i think steve is a little pessimistic on the economic outlook. and if you're reasonably -- if you feel this recent bout we've had is temporary and the economy comes back then i think you're looking at a nearer rate term or rate hike and i think that's what's worrisome to me and maybe i have it right. maybe it's a matter of understanding the fed is looking for that improvement and it could get it sooner. when she comes in there effectively, you know, guns blazing and says just because i ruled out april doesn't mean i can't do it sometime after april, i think that's a reason to be much more on edge. >> diane? >> the reality is -- let me jump in because of what steve said. i'm sorry, diane. what they basically did was they said patient was through april. now we have thrown patient out and we've put april

steve liesman with us for obvious reasons back at cnbc's headquarters.ur game plan looks like this. how do you like them apples? with america's most loved company added to the dow whether there's really a reason not to own that stock. extra mayo, now that the banks have passed the fed's stress tests which stocks does star analyst mike mayo say you need to own right now. we begin with the markets and something investors should start preparing for, rate hikes. the fed late or not making its move. ready or not it is coming maybe in june, maybe september, maybe shortly after that, and how the markets react is the trillion dollar question. right now it is anyone's guess. if you look at the markets today you get a feel for how we may react. some say we're ready, others say volatility will rule the day. whatever happens the money is hanging in the balance here and the market is reacting as if it would come sooner than they want and not handling it well. >> we talked about that yesterday when we had ubs on there talking about when the rates will move. he thinks

member favor is cio of cambria, steve liesman here on set with us as well.ur game plan looks like this. on the offensive, as lumber liquidators fights back the stock is surging we are live with the latest ahead over big interview friday with the founder of that company. >>> pass the palalcohol as the controversial cocktail wins u.s. approval. the product's creator is with us live. jim cramer will stop by as he celebrates ten years of "mad money." we begin with the markets where the euro rebound and the dollar drop helping stock gain footing today. big gain and financials leading the way following the government stress tests. morgan stanley by the way on track for its best day this year. it's not all great news today. intel cutting guidance, retail sales disappointing and pete, maybe that's why the market is responding in the way it is. you have three things about the fed, the dollars's movement today, factoring into the conversation, the data, maybe has some people thinking okay, patience push it off a little bit. >> maybe not raise in june. >> feels that wa

steve liesman now has a cnbc rapid update on the economy. steve. >> hey, tyler, whatever leaves behind this rally, it's not the economy or the economic data. economists see in the u.s. economy in the first quarter come the stall speed. the q1 tracking. the cnbc rapid update of all the tracking forecasts out there. declining by 0.4%. down by 1.4. that's the low for the quarter with a range of zero. yes, there is a goose egg among our forecasts to 2.2% on the upper end, but they do see a rebound in the second quarter. 3.5% with a range of 2.4 to 2.9. steven stanley, securities he is saying "this is turning into a recurrence of last year's nightmare first quarter when weather drove the gdp figure deep into negative territory. he does see a bounceback in the next quarter. take a quick look at where the economists are. bank of tokyo, goldman at 1.2. moody's analytics at 0.6, and there's peer pot at zero. sdronk personal income number and a consumer spending number that was below expectations and then factoring in inflation, which is how it carries

steve liesman, senior economics reporter.he wake of that blowout jobs report as steve described. bring in the chief international economist thes rb ss at rbc. good morning. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> eric have we massively underestimated the power of what the fed has done and when it spoke about hanging on to all of those assets and the balance sheet itself was powerful should we have believed them more? should they have believed themselves to a greater extent? >> i think perhaps the answer is yes, given what we're seeing now. the monetary stimulus and impulse that still comes from low yields, from low rates, plenty of money does seem enough to keep the economying growing at 3% plus. we're seeing astonishing hiring. as you say whether we dig through details strength there maybe a point of question around wages which is worth some discussion. but beyond that this hiring has been so strong for so long and it really does not show any sign of ebbing at this point. >> we heard from steve liesman who says all expect

our steve liesman highlights the results of cnbc's latest wall street survey on the fed. you may be in for a few more surprises on that as well. >>> also ahead, tick tock on oracle and the earnings due out after the bell. there are the stocks moving today. instant analysis from our team of pros. oracle tough session. oracle, they're up. two names that report after the close. keep it right here. if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. >>> a mixed day. let's put it that way. the dow and s&p are lower today but the nasdaq is higher and look at this. the s&p of the ten sectors in the s&p, technology is the lone gainer today with a gain of 1.5%. >> biggest decliner again second session in a row on two very different days overall is materials. pointing that out. >> strong dollar doesn't help that as well. we have a news alert. this is an interesting story on facebook. dominic c

steve liesman as well.'t miss on the closing bell janet yellen speaking in san francisco. the title is the new normal for monetary policy. nothing, brian, like a friday afternoon speech from the fed chairman to get market -- to keep markets on their toes and traders at their desk. >> for six years every day -- >> we're so bullish on stocks and when we look at the price action we've been seeing in the market as of late, it looks like just short-term profit taking as we're coming into quarter end here. when we look at the long-term chart on the s&p 500, let's make a couple of observations on this chart. at we've seen say retest of this rising 40-week moving average which comes in to play at around 2016 and then also there's a longer term uptrend support line that comes into play at about 1975. from our perspective, the primary trend of this market is still up. it has not changed. it will not until we ultimately reverse that trend. now, go to the one-year chart, if you would, and let's take a look at what we'v

steve liesman will have highlights from that speech scheduled to kick off within the hour and you willive the question and answer session. that's where things can really happen. that's coming up here on "the closing bell." stay tuned. the quietest or nothing. the sleekest... ...sexiest ...baddest ...safest, ...tightest, ...quickest, ...harshest... ...or nothing. at mercedes-benz we do things one way or we don't do them at all. the 2015 c-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. ♪ ♪ ♪ (under loud music) this is the place. ♪ ♪ ♪ their beard salve is made from ♪ ♪ ♪ sustainable tea tree oil and kale...

steve liesman joining us live from washington in just a few minutes. take a look at u.s.ow things are standing up. they're dropping in the last 20 minutes. dow about 46 points off. nasdaq 6.5 points s&p 500 off about 5 points this morning as we all the way for this word "patient," not patient, what's going to happen? >> again, for a while, nobody was willing to place a bet but now it looks like there is some effort being made to push things a little lower this morning. >>> we also have a developing story for you this morning. thousands of anti-capitalist protesters clashing with riot police in frankfurt. just hours before the ecb's new $1.4 billion building. protest leaders say they want austerity politics to end. several police cars were set on fire. police are saying about 90 officers were injured by stones and other items thrown by the protesters. police used water spray and water cannon to make a path through the supporters. >>> israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu winning a decisive victory after a bruising campaign. opinion poll taken just four days ahead of t

senior economics reporter steve liesman joins owes the newsline with i believe, steve, new information from economists on gdp forecasts which seem to be coming down. >> yeah mandy. the cnbc rapid update, which is an average of tracking forecasts on wall street came down pretty sharply today. down .2 to 1.8%. that's the lowest forecast we've had for the first quarter since we started tracking it. we began the quarter at a very optimistic 2.8%. the strong dollar which hurts exports, along with harsh winter weather and probably some decline in capital investment in the oil industry. probably responsible for the weak durable goods. it's not just the one report. retail sales were weak. construction has a string of weak january and february data. some economists remain optimistic. we have a couple of weak first quarters, and we've had good in the second quarter, and right now thaelgs on faith. the numbers right now are showing up sub 2% quarter for the first quarter this year. >> muddy the waters for a data dependent federal reserve. now to the latest on that plane crash in the alps. the lea

. >>> let's bring in the additional wisdom of steve liesman, senior economics reporter exclusive reportss me put all of this discussion about the fed in context of the markets. what our panel of 38 respondents, economists money managers and analysts see is an environment of rising interest rates and muted stock market gains. let's talk about the s&p 500 and outlook of the panel. 2081 the close yesterday. by june if you zoom in you see it going down that's the outlook. until it comes by the end of the year, 5% gain over that period of time. next year slight gains. 2247 for a total gain over the two-year or year and something period of about 8%. muted stock gains. let's show you interest rate environment seen by the panel. what you see here 2.14. by the end of the year up 2.6 from the current level of 2.08. what is 2016 look like? you can see those interest rates coming up again, 3%. over 3% on the ten-year by the end of 1016. take a look where the panel sees the fed funds market going. 25 basis points. gradually creeping up to 3%. the end of rate hikes in this psyching. some commentaries

steve liesman suggesting that banks having to operate under the assumptions may no longer make sense. he joins us now with former representative barney frank on the phone who of course had a big hand in some of these regulations. steve, first to you, you want to clarify anything you said? i'm curious what kind of response you got overnight. >> i didn't know i'd be here today and the name is on the bill. if you look at economic outcomes lending is lower. i did a story this morning that showed that 40% of mortgages are now with mortgage banks and we have been pushing lending outside of the regulated system when i look at the idea the federal reserve approving capital distributions, approving dividends, it feels like those banks are almost practically nationalized and it's not the state that we want to be in. is there a way to think about the market and the boards of directors doing their jobs and setting a appropriate capital distributions and share buybacks? lending has gotten more expensive for a lot of people and i think we want to ask ourselves the question is that the outcome from

steve liesman back at hq. the next 48 hours, not just with ecb meeting tomorrow, beige book this afternoon and the employment report on friday. >> i think that's right. and some question simon, i'm getting from economists whether or not weather plays a factor. i'm not sure it played a factor here. we had a bunch of folks say that there's positive business activity from oil and others saying that they're seeing lower capital spending from the oil sector. the internals look pretty good. i just had it there. let me call it back up here. i see the employment index bounced back to 55 from a very low reading last month. by the way, a false signal as to weakness. but you have new orders here and the backlog also doing well pointing so positive activity in the month ahead. the adp came out, lower than expected, a touch lower than the estimate. 212 was the number 212,000 jobs in the private sector estimated by adp. january revised up solidly, as the previous year january up by 37,000. good sector doing okay. service se

policymakers were thinking as the economy slumped to the bottom and then ban began to turn wrrn steve liesman with more on what we found out today. were they ahead of or behind? >> at the absolute peak of fear there. let me ask you a question. in march of 2009 were awe frayed, were you very afraid, or were you very, very afraid? >> i was very afraid. so afraid we were then at that time own bid general electric okay, and the stock was at $5 or $6 and i had it in my 401k and i said get me out of it. >> interesting. >> because there was talk then that a company as huge as ge could go. >> that same fear per have aeded the federal market committee when they met. we got the transcripts today. what we saw is that the fed was essentially making up policy on the fly. the most momentous decision, the quantity takive easing decision in march 2009 listen -- hear what bernanke said at the time. he said "having heard the discussion around the table today, i think i would like to raise a third option." there were two others on the table. "which is the union of the two, which would be the $750 billion of mbs

editor of market intelligence at market fi.com and our senior economics reporter steve liesman, whichgests there is a junior economics reporter though i've never found. >> 17 of them. >> 17 of them. >> they've been deputized and not been told. >> basically what's happening here is that mr. fisher has moved a little closer to the later rather than sooner camp? >> it sounded like he was walking back -- actually the comments he made to steve liesman a little over a week ago where he said middle of the year we'll start raising rates, and then he said we're going to start -- we'll get there by the end of the year, and it sounded to me like a walkback. then when you look at the broader array of what's happened at the fed, when you see the dot plots coalessing around and lower inflation, kind of where janet yellin is, it seems to me that she's still in control. you have more of a convergence of fisher moving towards yellin than yellin moving towards fisher, who is supposedly a little more hawkish on policy than ms. yellin was. >> do you see it that way? >> not quite. first of all, i think, r

i just asked you what was that all about, steve liesman? kelly and i last thursday were dealing with all these rumors about him. we didn't say anything on the air but we were hearing them constantly and then it became a news story over the weekend. what was going on? >> i think the obvious answer is geoff got to moscow and found putin. this is about his third or fourth absence, and there was another leader stalin who used to disappear as well. you don't know if it's some kind of depression or something like that, but what it did underscore is what you said at the top, it's about the instability surrounding succession in russia. it's the reason why investing in countries without that kind of succession plan or democracy, so to speak, are not necessarily good bets. you can have a lot of volatility around that kind of thing. >> john what's your read of his public absence and now unusual was it? >> it was odd. steve is right, he's done this before. he did it at the beginning of his presidency not in more recent years. yeltsin used to do this wh

steve liesman, you were saying? >> i think this section of the stress test goes too far. i don't think the government should be in the business -- i think it's one thing to stress them for capital. i think it's up to the companies and up to the markets and investors to decide is the share buyback and distribution commensurate with the amount of risk i want to take as an investor. i think this is emergency crisis period operations on the part of the fed. >> absolutely. >> i think we're past that. i think the government should not be in the business of -- >> david? >> i would agree. the government first is in the business of predicting the future and we know how that works even for the people that are paid more highly to do that doesn't work. but at the end of the day, this shows you how the industry has evolved the last four or five years. now we're talking about buy backs in the billions of dollars. five years ago we were talking about capital raises in the billions of dollars to stay solvent. this industry has come a long way. it will continue to improve and to say that

steve liesman, a new wrinkle in media distribution. >> i tried to do this many years ago.reated a big computer bock and i -- box and i went and spent a couple thousand dollars to try to get around the cable box. >> and you're admitting to it now? >> he says on a cable network. >> but here was my conclusion which is that the cable box -- and i know i have a self interest in this because of who i work for, but the cable box is a really good browser for television stations. and it's hard to see that there's other technology going to get around that. hbo may come out with that. it's a convenience thing, but what's going to happen is hbo will do this nbc will do that somebody will come together and bundle the two together and what do you have? you have cable. >> you're not telling me cable is genuinely a good browser for tv. it's the worst, isn't it? those guides? is that what you're talking about. there's so much better technology that will supplant that. >> if there's a better browser for television stations than the box, i have a whole bunch of things in my house. the cable

steve liesman is here with the exclusive results from our cnbc fed survey. steve? much. what we did was go through an exercise that i'm pretty sure the federal reserve is going through right now. what is the impact of oil and the dollar on growth and on inflation. let's take a look what our 38 respondents said. economists, fund managers and analysts. you can see here that oil cuts both ways. it's a positive for growth almost .4 of a point, a negative for inflation, shaving about 0.2% off. the strength of the dollar in the same direction on both. weaker growth and lower inflation. put them together about 0.4 off of headline. you can see that in two ways. here's the cpi forecast. horace there's the lows we asked for. oil, low $40 in this cycle, and the dollar euro at 95 cents. now i want to show you what the inflation forecast is for this group. you can see, it's heading down towards 1% the fed's target is 2% and we don't get back up there, according to this panel, until 2016. show you the growth forecast here now, and what you come across here is they came down and

we have steve liesman and the pros talking that out when we come back on "closing bell." world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. >>> just because we removed the word "patient" from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient. >> and that statement, more than anything else yesterday, may have helped send the dow up more than 200 points when all was said and done. some believed it may have even been directed at the u.s. markets. is this fed more attune to market whims than it has been in the past? and if so is that a good thing or a bad thing? joining me right now with their takes on that joel lavorgna, chief u.s. economist at deutsche bank and cnbc's steve liesman, who was one of the question

member favor is cio of cambria, steve liesman here on set with us as well.ooks like this. on the offensive, as lumber liquidators fights back the stock is surging we are live with the latest ahead over big interview friday with the founder of that company. >>> pass

economist at deutsch bank and steve liesman our cnbc senior economics reporter.ur game plan today, looks like this. alibaba bounce, as the chinese internet giant gets an upgrade is the stage set for a stock surge? we'll ask the analyst that made our call of the day. apple's aspirations, why today's tv streaming story merely sets the stage for a bigger play into your living room. we begin with the markets and what most certainly is the moment of truth for your money. a two-day if fed meeting with investors literally hanging on every word. in fact, not since qe first began in march '09 has so much been riding on a central bank statement. serrat, the guy with the money, got $4.5 billion under management. the market is literally hanging on one word, patience. >> right. >> if the fed removes it what's going to happen? >> i think the fed will be really deliberate, very transparent and take patient out they will say we're so data dependent going to watch what's going on, pay attention, because i think the fed really knows look what's happened to the euro, the dollar, lo

we want to get all the traders on what's going on with the market but first breaking news from steve liesman>> thanks very much. atlanta it fed president dennis lockhart saying that a liftoff in the june, july, september meetings are under serious consideration, these were comments that he made to reporters following a speech in georgia this morning. he is also saying the dollar represents a growing but still modest concern. he sees growth in the 2.5 to 3% range. context on lockhart. a r centrist followed closely because of that. not a hawk or dove. he has talked about the june to september period before but the first time i've seen these words under serious consideration, michele. associated with his comments. >> let's see what it does for the markets here if anything. thanks, steve. talk more about the rally and what steve was talking about as we. the move we see, is this a sign of the season to come, a ring by ring, kate moore what do you think? does it continue. >> we're pretty constructive on equities for the full year but i think we will have a lot of volatility around every bit of fed

steve liesman with us for obvious reasons back at cnbc's headquarters. our game plan

let's go to detroit where steve liesman is at the engage conference, the largest student investment conference. we are live there tomorrow, of course. you beat us there. >> yeah. i'm the warmup act, scott. we're just getting the guitars tuned for you and i know you have the big show coming tomorrow. i'm here. there's 1300 students in finance from around the country and here with a guy that used to be a student, fred tomczyk, president and ceo of td ameritrade. it's great time to have you to kind of understand weight going on. just looking at my computer, we round tripped from the fed. we went up and came right back down. is this volatility do you think stemming from expected changes in interest rates in the market and uncertainty over those changes? >> i don't have any doubt about that. i've been saying for six or nine months now, that there's so much stimulus in the system, from monetary stimulus from the federal reserve banks of most of the developed world, that when they start to pull that away there's no way we come out of that without volatility. we're seeing that right now. >> volatility

economist at deutsch bank and steve liesman our cnbc senior economics reporter.an today, looks like this. alibaba bounce, as the chinese internet giant gets an upgrade is the stage set for a sto

. >> steve liesman you're in d.c. going to be asking chair yellen questions later today.oes they shake out patience because we wants to gauge how the market is going to react to the removal of a word without an increase in an interest rate? >> i would think she's not making policy as a natural experiment, scott. i think the word patience comes out to provide the federal reserve flexibility to raise rates. a sense given where the economy is, where unemployment is, and this is the important thing, given where they think inflation is going to go, that zero interest rates may not be appropriate to the current environment. the word patience comes out to provide the fed flexibility. doesn't tell you that they're going to raise rates tomorrow or even in june or doesn't tell you about september. the next question is the question about chair yellen, what do you need to see to have confidence that inflation is moving back to your 2% target. that's key. and i just want to say this, talk about 1937 is really interesting. it is exactly what monetary policy expert talks about. it's one

steve liesman joins us. >> it's interesting i don't think i've seen her that outspoken. >> she has not had bill dudley make remarks about this and the federal reserve governor made remarks about this. but janet yellen last night made a step forward in amping up the rhetoric. here's what she said in a speech in new york city last night. >> we expect the firms we oversee to follow the law and to operate in an ethical manner. too often in recent years, bafrgers at large institutions have not done so sometimes, brazenly. these incidents both individually and in their totality, raise legitimate questions of whether there may be persuasive shortcomings in the values of large financial firms that might undermine their safety and soundness. >> so that's big right there. pervasive shortcomings in the values of the banks. the question is why does this matter? why could it matter to the banks? well, there are four things out there that the fed could do. if it starts to feel like, you know what we need to do more because of what's going on. that's big from the fed. the fed could -- by the way with

let's get more on that from our senior economics reporter steve liesman.any thought would be kind of an easy call would begin to lay the groundwork for the first rate hike in nine years by removing the word "patience" to describe how long they would wait to raise rights. clashing stronger with the strong dollar and oil prices moving the fed further from the 2% inflation target. here is the core management crisis. from below 2% in early 2013 and many economists say it's headed lower. jpmorgan on the core. saying, quote, we look for oil and dollar moves, to shave about 0.4% points off of core inflation rates in 25th. here's where it complicates fed policy because it is in effect a tightening of policy. a it lowers inflation. if inflation rates go down it remains unchanged but the yield goes up. it's also what matters to the economy. the fed has said quote, they'll look for transitory factors but jpmorgan argues it's not going to become clear in june what's transitory. and the fed, otherwise cutting, even the strength of the dollar more and causing more of a