i'm in lockstep with steve liesman and three rate hikes to take a pause and look around ask there's a key word steve used and that was resolution. we're in a correction. and not in a bear market, we're in a correction and what comes out is resolution of the issues facing us of which there are two. one is what's the fed path of rate hikes boy, that became clearer today and after march 15th which is only two weeks away. i can't tell you the claire they w clarity that will come out of russia versus ukraine, it will become clear the outcome one way or the other over the next two weeks and that sets the stage for the economic strength particularly in the u.s. to shine through. accordingly, i have been adding to stocks over the last two weeks and you know i raised cash over the year and i cut that cash by 5% by buying cyclical and reopenings and whether it was the financials and wynn and paramount when you were out sek. you have two more weeks to dust up the all-in moniker because in two weeks i'll be wearing it again. >> wow interesting to hear from you, jim lebenthal. >> kari, the thought

kayla tausche live in washington coverage continues now cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesman. steve, practically speaking, is this move more symbolic or impactful on russia? >> yeah, on the surface it's symbolic because as kayla said we don't get a whole lot of oil from russia. but it depends on how comprehensive it is. if everybody doesn't take russian oil, it's going to be a big problem for russia it's also going to be a big problem for the rest of the world. russia exports about 4.3 million barrels a day. that's a meaningful amount i just don't think we're quite there yet where all of the world is not going to accept russian oil. so what happens is instead of coming here it's going to go someplace else and we'll take some other oil so it shouldn't be that big of a deal in terms of the total effect on global oil supply. >> but record highs. how do you see this oil price spike playing out for consumers? can it be compared to anything previous >> so, yes high oil prices are going to hurt, especially low and moderate income americans. they'll probably start to cut back on othe

show, my friend. >> i appreciate it there's always something going on in overtime steve weiss has a question for you, liesman >> yeah, steve i'm with score can never be settled even in overtime when was the last time the fed came out as this hawkish do you have to go back to the '70s to the '80s, when was that period of time >> i think '94 if i'm not mistaken guys, can you put up ffed on a monthly basis and go back. you would see a fairly rapid and i'm sorry i didn't have it ready for you. i should have. you see a fairly rapid rate and the market didn't take too kindly on it and at the same time, bullard's point today is that's when they did a rapid rise in rates and they did get control of inflation and you had a pretty good second half of the '90s there so this is very aggressive, this would be one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles, but hey, when was the last time we had a pandemic and when was the last time we had 7% inflation and i think what the fed was doing is warranted and arguably late >> liesman, i appreciate it very much and you know i'll see you in overtime so don't get used to only this ha

. >> >>> steve liesman now practically speaking, is the move nor symbolic or impactful on russia? >> yeah. on the surface, it's symbolic. as kayla said, we don't get a lot of from russia it depends on how comprehensive it is. it's going to be a big problem for russia it's going to be a problem for the rest of the world. russia exports about 4.3 million barrels a day. that's a meaningful amount i just don't think we're quite there yet. all the world is not going to accept russian oil what happens is instead of coming here, it'll go someplace else we'll take some other oil. it shouldn't be that big of a deal in terms of the total effect. >> record highs. how do you see the oil price spike playing out for consumers. can it be compared to anything previous >> so, yes high oil prices are going to hurt, especially low and moderate income americans. they'll probably start to cut back on other things it'll hit them hard in their pocketbooks and wallets. what is a little different this time, shep, from other times, is american oil is pretty much in balance. we're fairly energy independent.

by the way, it was good to see steve liesman. he was in moscow for us when i was working in europe., markets in moscow have been closed since monday and when they -- and they were already 25% down we don't know whether they're going to be open this coming monday heavens knows things are turning bad in that economy. you've never seen the g7 put an asset on the russian economy it's measured by its economy you're seeing also different signs of resistance. independent television station shut down yesterday. the -- all of the workers at the station said no to the war and they played "swan lake" and that has a real meaning in russia as it's plard in times of political turmoil. it was on the spin reel in 1991 at the end of the soviet union there's a lot of stress against putin. two ways he goes down, public rises against him or insiders say this is too much and they rise against him and we don't see any sign either one of those is strong enough yet. >> senator lindsey graham said he should be assassinated then he softened and said he should be jailed instead. do you think putin is vulnerab

steve liesman has some answers from our latest survey >> those are great questions the latest cnbc survey finding forecasters raising outlooks for recession and boosting their inflation forecast as the fed faces the quandary of fast-rising prices and all the uncertainty from russia's invasion of ukraine. the average recession probability for the u.s. in the next 12 months, put at 33%, up ten points from the last survey and elevated from normal levels. for europe, though, recession probability placed at 50%. the u.s. economy is still seen growing, but at a slow be clip the average gdp forecast slipping by 0.8 percentage points, remaining slightly above trend. gdp forecast for 2023 dropping by half a point, now around 2.4% respondents said most of the drop came as a result of russia's invasion of ukraine, which also prompted them to hike their inflation outlooks the consumer price index, as judged by our forecasters, seen peaking at 8.5%. gradually declining to finish the year at 5.2% that's almost a full percentage point higher than the february numbers we had cpi comes down to a tamer 3.3

what if it's the wrong place to look our steve liesman here with why every picture tells a different looking at the wrong one >> don't it? everybody looks at the 210, but economists and folks at the fed like to look much closer in, scott, and the reason is because what are you trying to do here are you trying to see what the bond market tells us about the next year or two years why would you look at the two and the ten years out? why not look much closer >> i'll just show you the three-month, two-year spread is the one that economists and the fed prefer because of the information included in there and there's another reason it's hard to tease out from this graphic here, but when this curve inverts it inverts more closely to the actual recession to the 210 spread and you'd think that would be rust and right now this is screaming, it is a mid-expansion and nowhere near inverting and it's going the other way as the fed hikes and interest rates are higher and that's the way it's positioned right now let me show you what you leave on the table if you follow the 210 spread this is work don

. >> let's bring in steve liesman. he's been listening to our conversation and i've been thinking about him, too, as we were having the conversation with mohamed el-erian tging it's been too high for his book and we've been to the most, treatment at least seven or so in the expectation to where we find ourselves today and that move that we've all been watching and yields globally, how do you see that? >> well, i was just at the moment there, scott, calculating where we were, and it looks like you could say five hikes priced in, i guess, at this point down from six it's not that big a move in the fed funds market yet, but the decline in interest rates is selling you that there's some sense, i think you have to be careful and i'm sure mohammed talked about this. i'm sorry i missed his interview. he's always brilliant. you have money looking for different homes right now than it was in before, and it could be russian money, as well, looking for a port of safety, and so i would not at this moment take too much in the way o

the unemployment rate dropped to a pandemic low of 3.8% cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesman. steve, this was a surprisingly strong report. >> it sure was on a lot of levels, kelly. it was the 14th straight month of gains we've added on average almost 600,000 jobs a month over that period kind of unheard of actually. jobs gains were broad based. hospitality, retail, places coming back from the virus and construction also. looks like the nurses are coming back to work more people kbaj into the workforce. they found work so that the unemployment rate kicked down. the big weakness, this has been a weakness for a long time, is wage growth. 0.3% understates the truth because the average was pulled down by a lot of paid workers coming back. inflation is taking a toll relatively strong wage increases are being eaten away by bigger wage increases. >> we'll get to all of that in a moment but it makes the point the fed probably needs to raise interest rates does it bolster their case now >> sure does this number could have been zero and it would still bolster the case for the feds. sev

today, another fed milestone happens and steve liesman has the details. hey. the federal reserve should complete today the last purchases of mortgage backed securities, putting an end to the largest quantitative easing program in u.s. history. it's the measure of how far the fed may be behind the curve that the end of qe comes the day inflation was reported at 7.9%, a 40-year high, and six days, as tyler points out, before the fed is set to raise interest rates beginning in march 2020, let's do the tale of the tape, the fed cut interest rates to zero, began increasing the balance sheet by $120 billion a month, giving stimulus to the pandemic plagued economy. over 24 months at double the balance sheet at $8.8 trillion the $4.8 trillion came from buying $3.3 trillion in treasuries and mortgages maintaining the current level of the balance sheet until it makes a decision to reduce the balance sheet. that's expected to happen this summer traders are bracing for more volatility in mortgage backed securities and treasury market qe dampens volatility because the fed i

steve liesman, we'll see you with the big number at 8:30 this morning.king to you a lot about that in a little bit. >>> coming up josh gottheimer, the new jersey congressman for the mid-terms, president biden's economic plan and more and then goldman's jeff currie on the situation in ukraine and rising oil prices. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. maybe it's another refill at your favorite diner... or waiting for the 7:12 bus... or sunday afternoon in the produce aisle. these moments may not seem remarkable. but at pfizer, protecting the regular routine, and everyday drives us to reach for exceptional. working to impact hundreds of

steve liesman has details. >> yeah. kelly, start with powell first year in focus on the economic impact of the ukrainian war, inflation, the way it combined to impact u.s. monetary policy here's fed chair jay powell answering directly when asked the question about how it all combines >> before the invasion we were planning to raise rates this year planning to -- to make a series of interest rate increases that is still the case i think it, right now, in this very sensitive time where uncertainty is highly elevated and we really don't know which way things are going to go, i think we need to move carefully. >> how far is the fed prepared to go? senator shelby asked powell if the fed was willing to go as far as paul volcker did in the '80s, squeezing down on the economy to wring inflation out. >> i knew paul volcker and pretty sure i saw him oftestifyn this room. one of the greatest public servant of the era and hope history records the answer to your question is, yes. >> you're prepared to do what it takes without any re

steve liesman we turn to you for the answer >> i got wax in my ears all i know we have lift off as theed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage to 2.5 to 0.5 and firmly signalled more rate hikes to come. expects to give balance sheet reduction in a coming meeting andfed chair j powell said it could come as super as the next one in may further, powell was clear if inflation is not seen coming down as expected the fed could in future meetings hike rapts by more than a quarter point. >> we'll be look ago the data as they come in we'll be looking to see if the data show expected improvement on inflation and look at inflation outlook and make a judgment. each meeting is a live meeting, if we conclude that it would be appropriate to raise interest rates more quickly then -- then we'll do so. >> the fed also surprised markets with a very hawkish outlook for rates forecast seven quarter point hike this year up from three and four in 2023 and 2024, the median fed forecast 2.8% above the rate of 2.4 even then inflation doesn't come down to the 2% target rate so melissa i'm going to stop i

steve liesman in moskow.on his experiences over there he's single. and diana oleck in moskow when fast food was new. you can find squawk pod wherever you listen to podcasts we'll be right back. sion tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now, wow, 600 down those are the highest levels of the day for the dow. nasdaq indicated up a strong 331 points, and the s&p rebounding from some recent weakness at put it well into correction territory, up about 83, 82 points this morning. >>> some of the biggest names in technology are down at least 40% so far this year prompting the question is now the time to get in paypal, netflix, meta and zoom are just some of the industry giants feeling the pain. joining us right now is dan niles. he's

economy is already at full employment steve liesman has the highlights >> fed chair jay powell saying he'll support a 25 basis point rate hike. weighing in heavily on a debate that had taken place among fed officials in public. >> i do think it will be appropriate to raise our target wrench for the funds rate at the march meeting in a couple weeks. and i'm inclined to propose a 25-point basis point rate hike >> that's not evans, bullard, nester that's powell, the fed chair saying it. he said there was no obvious initial impact in funding markets from the ukraine invasion despite some fears it could create systemic risk he said the medium and longer term effects were unknown. it was a reason for the fed to go carefully >> we do intend to raise interest rates this year as we've said but as long as we're in this very sensitive phase of events in eastern europe, we're going to be careful in doing so. we're going to move -- avoid adding uncertainty >> powell called the ukraine conflict a potential game changer for the fed and the economy. but in the near-term, there is no plans to change t

cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesman spoke to him earlier today steve? >> shep, thanks. yes, this afternoon i spoke with president zelenskyy's top economic adviser, oleg ustenko it was over zoom and from a location in ukraine that could not be disclosed for security reasons. he urged the west to cut off purchases of russian oil and gas, calling the $1 billion sent daily to russia, quote, blood money that finances the russian war machine and devastation of ukraine and its people. >> it's just incredible because whoever is buying this oil and gas today, they are responsible also for financing this aggressive russian, putin's, russia's machine, which kills our people and do all of these terrible dark ages things in my country. so for us, it's extremely important to cut off them from these bloody money receipts. and we do believe that by doing this, we will be able really to hit the russians very hard >> ustenko said he has family stuck in an occupied town of kyiv he said a neighbor gave a family member a chicken to eat today and that's all there was heat co

steve liesman joins us now with some high frequency data on how inflation is impacting the job marketut adp, too, steve? >> yeah, i'll give you a number anyway as to what people are forecasting, but that's all i can tell you right now because, joe, it's a tricky call on this jobs report. the high frequency shows little growth and even a slight decline fum the strong pace of february but there's also not been much impact yet from high inflation and sectors like leisure and hospitality, they keep bouncing back from the slow down we had earlier this year from covid dave from the hr software company ukg said work force activity indicated a slight slow down in job growth and negative effects from high oil prices and the ba.2 covid variant have not yet impacted hourly shift work 450 on adp, and jobless claims are low. they're expected to be 195 tomorrow and bls payroll expected to coming in at 490,000. they saw slight weakness but based on a cooling off of really strong numbers we had in february and they continue to chronicle a recovery from omicron. they wrote, quote, as omcrone faded and

cnbc senior economic correspondent steve liesman now, this was an ugly report on consumer prices, but what's next month going to look like >> i'm afraid, shep, it will get worse from here with only how much accelerating and broadening before russia's invasion, now supply of key commodities, they come from the region that drives up prices of gasoline, up 40%, year over year, most of the gain coming before the war. i've seen the disruption of oil supply could drive prices at the pump 20% this month alone. food up 8% year over year but wheat prices in march surge because of concerns that crop exports will be cut off. used car prices, down a little bit month to month but buying someone else's still costs 41% more than a year ago housing game, still small. 4.7 is the biggest one since the early '90s some were the exact categories economists were counting on to come down in the coming months to relieve the inflationary pressure the way it's going to happen right now. >> really bigger trouble that the government reported today that wages are not keeping up with inflation >> right, all this w

steve liesman joins us now with more what do you think? fed is not ruling out recession, and yet at the same time saying the economy is strong enough at this point in order to withstand the rate hikes coming their way. rick is 100% right these are still low jobless claims numbers, so this is high frequency data, the jobless claims number, by the way. and it's telling us we're not seeing a lot of effect in the job market right now or any potential slow down that might be associated with higher oil pricesch and again, these numbers here you adjust for inflation, people are still spending more. and by the way we've been through the roll-off of the child tax credit which is some of the fiscal restraint some expected obviously a much higher burden for a lot of lower and moderate income americans overall in aggregate they seem to be getting over that hurdle i mean, it's good news going into what we're going into, but you can't say we're out of the woods yet. >> okay, steve thank you both when we come back could china be using citywide lockdowns

steve liesman.an kelly, i'm going to answer this question and sound flip on my part, maybe, but do you care what fed officials see in terms of recession they got the inflation part of things wrong and i don't mean any disrespect -- it's very difficult to forecast. let's put that out there i don't forecast >> yeah. >> so it's easy for me to criticize. >> exactly well as yogi berra says predictions are hard, especially when they're about the future. however, i will say that the fed has a huge creditability problem. it was less than a fortnight ago powell was on tv and said i think the odds of a soft landing are pretty good and now all of a sudden this story that maybe they'll be looking for a recession. jpmorgan with a report out today that maybe bank of england would report recession so clearly an e-mail went down that said we need to prepare the ground for potential of recession. my view is has exactly what they want you cannot fight the fed in this environment which makes me a lot move cautious in

don't look past that >> steve liesman, yeah they do look good. are they going to look as good once the fed starts to embark on the new regime in two hours from now and that's the critical question >> so i think it's important to understand, scott, that the fed has embarked on this regime or whatever you want to call it this rate hike cycle and it did that on november 29th when powell did what you call his hard pivot in a funny way, scott. we're already, if you call this a marathon we're five or six miles into this already and what we're doing today is we're logging the lap today. this quarter-point cut is built in the next quarter-point cut is built in the quarter-point cut after that is built in. this economy has been trading at this the point with 135 basis points of additional tightening on it already and 15% or 20% less in the way of financial conditions from the stock market the restraint is already in place. the question for today, scott is not, does it do a quarter. that one is logged in and not even for me. there are two questions. does p

that's our steve liesman thank you. >>> let's bring in mike santoli watching that open above 4,400 which we bumped our heads on what's your take so far? >> the market continues to really not do any more than the minimum acceptable bounce, at least at the moment. not really free of this undertow not just of the russia/ukraine headlines but also just the valuation adjustment that's been under way in the nasdaq, the tactical kind of resistance that we've been hitting in the market right here everyone is looking for the s&p 500 around 4450 or above that's where it becomes something more than just an oversold bounce and can maybe mean it's breaking out of this down trend now we have a decent cushion the lows last week, they look pretty good. we got oversold. sentiment is really nasty and pessimistic. that's a net positive for the market but overall, i feel like we're just twitchy in this range until further notice energy down, seemed to give a little lift in the pre-open market, but it's not decisive enough at this point i think to give anybody a lot of conviction ahead of the jobs number tom

steve liesman joins us with the latest rapid update.we're back in a moment you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪ (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more for less—join the big switch to t-mobile for business today. >>> welcome back economists are trying to gauge what impact the ukraine war will have on the u.s. economy and on inflation to figure out which force the fed needs to confront, price pressures or slowing growth steve joins us with a cnbc rapid update steve? >> yeah. how about both that fir

more with the same amount but with higher prices pumping less next step is not so obvious. >> steve liesman, thank you very much for diplomatic analysis, now ben rhodes is here, former deputy national security adviser. nbc news contributor good to see you, diplomacy didn't stop this now they're holding what they're calling generously, peace talks. is that a waste of time? >> no, shep, i think it is worth exploring that if only to find out if your adversary's position has changed or not and president zelenskyy made that clear in agreeing to these talks. russia has clearly taken a maximalist position, not just on the nato margin but the objective that's putin set he is talking about eliminating ukraine's sovereignty. the pretty clear play is the quick decapitation of the ukrainian government so he could install a puppet government what has been made very clear to russia and the world is that the ukrainian people and the ukrainian government are not going anywhere so there's a difference between the objectives and the absolute resistance to russian domination >> he has a lot more to throw at i

steve, thank you that's our steve liesman you see cleveland cliffs today i know jim lebenthal did and we'll talk about that among othethgsheweombar in wn ce ck *u an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contracts prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. when it comes to cybersecurity, [ding] get e*trade the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™. it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. on the largest, fastest, reliable network with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with

steve liesman joins us now steve?ut the job market is in a pretty good place, and it's good to be in a good place when you're entering the kind of uncertainty we have now with both domestic and international economic developments the 215 is a good number it's heading down. the productivity number will be a good number. we'll be hard-pressed to hit that again in the fourth quarter. it said there were workers scarcity, increasing compensation for workers, and especially by the way worker flexibility provided for low and moderate wage jobs, which is really interesting you go down the wage spectrum and employers have to offer more to get people to work. all of this is kind of like we'll wait and see what happens with the impact of the war ultimately the thinking there's not a whole lot of dmk trade between ukraine, russia and the united states at the same time there are key commodities going to be mushing up prices. one question i'd like to hear a senator ask is mr. chairman you're behind the curve here already, you need

want to get to steve liesman what were your big takeaways >> i would just like to say that i am sure that fed chair jay powell hopes gary cohn is right and they get help from a lot of sources. part of powell's presentation. sara, struck by change in the forecast couldn't help but be struck by that the fact the median fed official now sees restrictive rates next two years. as i said in my question, fed still doesn't catch up inflation still runs according to their own forecast above target two years while restrictive and above the k neutral rate powell hinted at it. you have to be on your mark now. hawkish as this was, the idea a decision to hike the balance sheet probably is coming in may, powell also was not shy about saying, hey. we might do 50s, go faster take a listen. >> we'll be looking at the data as they come in. looking to see whether the data show expected improvement on inflation, the inflation outlook and making a judgment, and going each meeting is a live meeting and if we conclude appropriate to raise interest rates more quickly, then we'll do so. >> might be by the sum

let's bring in steve liesman now. steve? >> kelly, while fed officials are not predicting recession but not ruling it out. faced with the uncertainty of the russian war threatening to drive prices higher for food and energy and the unknown how much restraint to be required to give to control inflation fed officials speaking with far less confidence than normal about the economic outlook here's the interesting comments. his recounting of previous successful efforts to rainy in inflation fed chairman powell said some grounds for optimism that a soft landing could be achieved and then chair george saying a soft landing is possible but not guaranteed and from the philadelphia fed said there might be bumps with a period of below trend growth for a while and a safe but not necessarily soft landing powell and others have said that the market is strong enough for rate hikes and balance sheet reduction and don't know if it's enough to get to inflation under control. >> seems like the scenario is still one where this all works out wit

approving the first interest rate hike in more than three years with six more potentially still ahead steve liesmane. >> yeah, the fed hiking rates and offering a hawkish outlook for further rate hikes and the market yesterday seemed to applaud. explanations for the market rally range from, hey, it could have been worse to, at least now we know what the plan is the fed in a statement saying it anticipates ongoing increases and expects to begin balance sheet reduction quote at a coming meeting it could come as soon as may the median forecast calling for six more quarter point hikes this year and four in 2023, maybe more in 2024 the median fed forecast is for a funds rate of 2.8% that's above the long run or neutral rate you can see on the right of the screen there suggesting the fed feels a pump on the brakes maybe harder than it did before. powell saying the fed would go faster if inflation doesn't come down as it's expected to do. >> we'll be looking at the data as they come in. we will be looking to see whether the data show expected improvement on inflation we will be looking at the inflation ou

steve liesman joins us now hey, steve >> morning, joe. today where inflation was mostly before the war and know it was already uncomfortably high and know it's uncertain it's going higher still headline 0.7%, that's up a tick. year on year 7.8%. i'd say there could be up side risk in that number. core expected to tick down better, food and energy year on year 6.4%. the surge in crude oil came almost entirely towards the end of the month it will now certainly head higher still the danger for the federal reserve isn't that it loses control if it hasn't already of the hearts and minds of average americans and business leaders because it can't any longer tell a credible story about how inflation is going to come down. that is a especially true because you have grains and other commodities that won't be coming from ukraine and russia driving up world food and other prices ian shepherdson from pantheon says march should be much worse. right now we think headline inflation in march will hit 8.2% i think personally that's kind there could be some

probably quite strongly over the next couple of months. >> steve liesman, thank you.that basically flat yield curve turning to the broader markets where it is a mixed picture. the dow is up 55 and the s&p is down, 4628.5 the level and the nasdaq also in the red and apple shares are just about flat, going for 12 straight day of gains if we could see that reverse. that would tie its longer ever win streak also turning positive on the year this week joining us now interactive brokers and timber hill head trader steve sosnick it is quite a reversal for the broader markets in the last couple of weeks but for the mega cap tech names like apple and tesla, like amazon your take on why we're seeing that now and the role that institutional money is playing as we come to the end of the quarter. >> good morning, morgan. i think that institutions realize just before the fed meeting that they had really gotten underinvested in a big way. they had been selling partially because of fed -- potential for fed movement, partially because of the geopolitical situation, and so they've been

indeed.com/hire >>> fed chair jay powell's prepared house testimony for later this morning as our steve liesmane at the next meeting in the a couple of weeks. he says tighten the policy would include reducing the size of the fed's balance sheet. he says the effects of ukraine's invasion on it u.s. economy is, quote, highly uncertain and the federal reserve will need to be nimble in responding inflation is running well above our long run objections, powell says he does inspect inflation to decline over this year reasons for that declean are easing supply constraints, moderating demand proton by fiscal stimulus, declining fiscal stimulus as well as tightening of monetary policy. he does say, however, that the fed is watching for risk for further upper pressure on inflation. on omicron he says the slow down seemed to have been briefed and the labor market is extremely tight, and they're seeing improvement across all parts of different industries i think at the end of the day this is pretty much what is expected here. the fed is on track for at least a cup of rate hikes at the beginning and then to

let's talk more about these words from putin and what they might mean to our russian whisperers, steve liesman's talk about tat i've been to budapest. i've seen the weird soviet buildings juxtaposed next to this beautiful architecture. that's as close as i get to having any feel for what happens there. how long were you there? you were there a while as moskow wsj bureau chief, right? >> i was there for six years, joe. >> okay. you're it. you are our resource, and it's now suddenly aren't you really glad you did that since you're like the grand poobah, able to talk about this stuff now. >> i was glad i did it for a lot of reasons and guess one of them is to be here now. you've got to be skeptical putin's comments are really nebulous certain comments. i'm looking at the situation here and i can see some reasons why putin might move here. you look at the war is not going well that seems to be the general consensus of the experts out there. you're starting to see and i think one of the most important things is what are average russians being told? there's been some leaks in all that where there's

that is all we would say i don't want to use the "h" wo word this is nuts >>> this next guy, steve liesman, reporting that russians are rushing to withdraw cash the ruble has fallen against the dollar here is what i'm referring to. i don't know anyone else who lived in moscow for years and years who we can tap for the overall expertise about the fed and also, steve, you know about russia you are the only person i know who spent years living there are you are our senior economics reporting. steve, this was depressing today. that is that we can do a lot with the banks, but they've done a lot in terms of coming more domestic and not importing as much exporter of commodities. as long as they have $100 a barrel oil, we cannot hurt them as much as we like to. >> what do you do, joe you read my script and give away the story. you are very smart >> no, i didn't look at it i know you speak russian >> yeah. i wanted to tell you that what i'm about to read comes from my experience the sanctions are hitting almost every atmosphere of strategy the ruble devalued air flights are canceled and visa and ma

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and steve liesman andrew is off today.r this morning the dow futures are close to 375 points s&p up by 40 and the nasdaq up by 82. >>> headlines this morning, treasure yields continue to rise ahead of the fed's two-day policy meeting that's this week it's hit a high since july 2019 while the two-year note also hit a two-year high. policy makers will announce the first red hike this week since 2018 fox fox.com, the supplier of apple, has shut down, undering people to work from home. comcast, the parent of cnbc is close to finalizing a deal with major league baseball. nbc's peacock streaming service would gain exclusive rights to a package of 18 sunday games as baseball seeks to expand its digital partnerships a deal could be announced within a few days that makes me think do i need to renew my mlb thing or -- have i been paying with it -- i get all the games. i get all the games. >> you should be okay. >> just admit it you have no idea what you're paying for what. >> paying something for all games, but i don't know -- do yo

bad the labor department reported last month inflation rose at the fastest pace in four decades steve liesman now, cnbc's senior economics reporter steve, the fed chair faced really tough questions on inflation. >> reporter: for sure. some let the fed chair know, he's partly at fault it's running as you said a 40-year high near 7% it threatens to get higher from 7 percent ers up to 8 powell says the fed is on the case it will raise the overnight lending from zero then at least several more times that will raise the mortgage rates, car loans, credit cards they get more expensive for companies to borrow, too, slowing the economy from the current fast pace of growth. it is going to come down got rate hikes and you end the supply chain disruptions and you run off the money that the government pumps into people's pockets. >> oil prices today again, steve, shooting up that has to complicate things, that ka back online. all bets pretty much off now oil hit $112 a barrel for at least some time today. that's highest before settling in fears and allies may decide to sanction french oil. you had shipper

for more on what this move means to you, we're joined by nbc's tom costello and cnbc's steve liesman., bottom line this for me. what are the short and long-term implications for consumers? >> for consumers we're talking about potentially higher rates for your credit cards. if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, that will go up. if you have an adjustable rate loan, it could be a private student loan, could be a private equity loan, those will go up as well. the bottom line is this is the first of many rate hikes to come. we expect as many as six this year alone. so if you are, in fact, one of those people who has heavy credit card debt, pay that off as fast as you can, get rid of the credit card debt. if you've got an adjustable rate mortgage, this may be the time to think about locking in a fixed rate. if you've got those adjustable rate loans, for example, the private student loan, home equity loan, you either want to pay those off, pay them down or try to get -- or mitch mcconnell verlt that to a fixed rate as well. the bottom line is we are in an increasing interest rate environm

steve liesman joins us with a tale of two yield curves steve? >> hey, tyler, yeah.very picture tells a story, don't it, as rod stewart sang. take a look at the 20 and 10. predicts a recession every time it turns negative. the economy plunges into recession. at 23 basis points it is not singing recession but as close as it's been in a while. economists ask what the spread between the yield 2 and 10 years from now say about the economy their answer is it should not really tell you much perli and durham write care. annual ses have shown that it is the short enof the curve that has the best predicting power. it's steepening with 170 basis points separating. the near term spread looks like the middle of a great expansion of the time. i'm not saying that's where it is but steepening. recession signal is tough investing. recessions following inverses happen from months to up to two years afterwards and stocks usually rise in the interim. >> how long does the inverse need to persist for it to be declared an inverse? disease does it have to do it for a day? >> usually stays

senior economic reporter steve liesman has more for us on the numbers. to a period of real uncertainty about the inflationary and growth effects of the ukraine invasion. some economists are already warning essentially or downplaying the strong numbers suggesting they won't last in the current circumstances. anyway, here's the february jobs report up 678, unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8%. wages were muted but not a lot of people believe that it could have been a mixing issue of low wage workers coming back and the revisions up nearly 100,000 for december and january. where are the jobs where you expect them to be when you have a recovering economy from a covid crisis. leisure and hospitality, up 179, professional and business services 95. health care workers doing well a sign of return to normalcy both having good months up 48,000 on the ladder how much longer can it continue? it's only a matter of time before weakness sets into the job market from the surge in prices linked to the ukraine invasion and potential uncertainty me said it's difficult to

i want to comment on something that steve liesman said and i think it's very similar to what we learned below nominal gdp. it's expected to be 8.8% this year if you really want to truly fight this inflation, the number that you're going to have to get to on fed funds is much, much higher than anyone is going to be comfortable with. and it probably will choke us. and right now the consensus view is that supply chains will ease and the inflation will kind of drain away on its own, and therefore we should just be hopeful and calm down and hope this will go away. i'm pretty optimistic in general, but i don't think this inflation goes away as much as the fed and everyone wants it to >> okay. we are going to leave the conversation there >> so jonathan, are you selling into the strength or buying on -- i still don't know what you said >> i think the fed stays behind the curve is the bottom line i think they're going to move up but not enough to choke off the economy. >> so sell stocks or buy stocks? >> but, jonathan, that's not acceptable that's what's wrong with that idea is if you turn aroun

steve liesman.ther things, let's bring in former chairman of goldman sachs, former u.k. treasury minister, jim o neal i would like to start with russia we heard from president zelenskyy about an hour or so ago asking for more in sanctions in terms of closing ports saying peace is more important than income but given your knowledge of the russian economy i'm curious to get your thoughts. how effective has the sanctions been and what are your expectations when it comes to that economy and its ability to function >> well, i think putin is not shown any evidence of being the great strategic thinker that so many people tried to persuade me in the heyday that there was a brick in the norses, supposed had. he cannot envision the freezing of the central bank as echts and the huge response of germany and essentially changing the whole of their fame work, for defense policy posts, second world war ii and the aftermath and so, i think he's probably floundering. i don't know that you guys have picked up the sub

let's focus on the big stories we're watching mike tracking all of the market action steve liesman with a closer look at how inflation and the crisis in europe are playing into the fed's policy timeline. mike, what are you watching? we're off the lows >> well off. we were down about 1.5% on the s&p at the low, we have spent the entire day between the highs and lows of the last two days. so that's kind of telling you that volatility, while it's still pronounced is somewhat moderated today. and look, the story that we started the week talking about, market is bent but not quite broken down, it still seems to apply. 4100 to 4300 is what everyone keeps pointing out as this range that could act as some kind of support. what would mean a rally that got your attention that said maybe there's a chance for this being persuasive and decisive? probably up in the mid-4300s, 4360 so here you go, another 100 points and we can start talking about getting clearance from those lows oil retreating a little bit today. maybe just staying out of the way. now, sentiment has really been beaten down and positi

for more on the fallout i'm joined by steve liesman and the director of the cbo, the congressional budgete. steve, kick things off for us. >> thanks, kelly phil, thank you for joining us here on "the exchange" you guys looked at the impact of the deficit from higher interest rates. i don't want to give away the answer right away because people will click off the tvs and go away why don't you tell us first what kind of interest rates did you model in sneer how high will they go? >> it's a pleasure to be here. we looked at the top and the bottom of the blue chip forecast panel. that's -- think of that as the high end of reasonable and the low end of rbl and at the short end of the curve, at the three-month, there's maybe 60 or 70 basis point difference between those two, and obviously that gets bigger as you go out to the ten-year think of it as like a spread of two or 2 .5 percentage points on the interest rate. these are not extreme scenarios. these are higher and lower interest rates, but this is not the kind of scare -- hard landing scare scenario >> these are not 4 or 5% these are more