it's interesting because the straits of hormuz will because the straits of hormuz will be familiar touz will be familiartoa because the straits of hormuz will be familiar to a lot of people because only a few months ago we had british ships that had been hijacked by the iranians, and basically these ships now in the light of the assassination by this american drone strike last friday of general soleimani, there's a whole lot of assessing the various followed and risks that are being done by the british government. when i see the british government. when i see the british government. when i see the british government i'm obviously not referring in an official capacity to the prime minister borisjohnson. what we've got, interestingly. because he is still away. yes and about to jet back. we have a significantly different line from the foreign office and mod, on one hand the foreign office according to the sunday telegraph that really says, look, you can to try to tread a fine line here to avoid in the uk front and centre for any retaliation given this is presented in the uk with a strate

it isa of remorse. —— strait of hormuz. r body that connects the persian gulf and around towards the north of iran. whenever there is tension, iran has attacked some of the oil vessels and it has disrupted oil is applied to an extent. just to give you a sense, every day 21 billion barrels of oil passes through this passage which is one third of the total oil which travels on the ocean anywhere in the world. countries like saudi arabia, the uae, all of them uses to transport oil, especially to asian countries, which are the consumers. they have threatened that is there isa waror they have threatened that is there is a war or if tension rises, they will block that passage. realistically speaking, that might bea realistically speaking, that might be a huge ask because then everyone will have to deploy a lot of military personnel over there, but yes, military personnel over there, but yes , even military personnel over there, but yes, even disruption like targeting these vessels could create tension and lead to a certain disrupt

. >> let's show our viewers when you're talking about the shipping lanes, the strait of horm hormuz. >> right. >> and where saudi arabia and iran and qatar and uae and oman, look where they're all located as they try to export their oil supply. according to fox business, an average of 21 million barrels or 21% of global supply pass through the straits -- strait, each day. talk about that area. >> right. no, this is a major chokepoint. this is a major pathway for world energy supply and you just talked about the oil. there's also gas that goes through the strait of hormuz and energy from qatar. so it's a very significant source of energy for the world. it's still not -- it's still meaningful for the u.s. but it's very significant for asian markets, asian -- asia, south -- northeast asia is the backyard of producers and the region really gets much of its energy supply from the gulf. so for china, for japan, for korea, other countries in the region, the strait of hormuz and the gulf in general are really vital areas. it makes it all the more -- all the more remarkable that the markets we

the concert is there could be a supply disruption in energy markets, particularly the strait of hormuzsomething people are looking at. in the past, iran has threatened to disrupt shipping or halt shipping and the strait of hormuz. there is nothing to indicate they're doing that this time, but it is something they have threatened. about 1/3 of the world's seaborne oil passes through that street. that's why oil and energy markets are looking at this very closely. so far, there's nothing to indicate there is a disruption in oil markets. tracy: mark cudmore, who heads our markets live blog, is with us. what have you heard in terms of investor reaction? are they reconsidering the iran-u.s. tension threat this morning? >> if you walk in this morning and looked at markets, it seemed like the overall reaction has been quite subdued. knee-jerk reactions this morning have actually retraced. looking much are more liquid than they were when we walked in. this shows these markets are very sensitive. the resilience from the start of the year is gone. we came into the new year with most investors loo

the strait of hormuz is a waterway between iran and the u.a.e. iran uses it to transport oil as do many others saudi arabia the united arab emirates kuwait iraq and qatar in fact around 20 percent of the world's oil moves through this straits which aim places is no more than 4 kilometers wide iran regularly threatens to obstruct the channel several oil tankers were attacked last year with iran suspected of being responsible then in september saudi arabia's largest refinery went up in flames again all eyes fell on iran it rejected the accusations but tensions are clearly heightening. the united states. which is a neighbor well when we. are on is a neighbor we are already close to we are. the last. middle east the us is unlikely to have many concerns about oil supplies in 2018 president donald trump announced that thanks to fracking the united states was no longer dependent on oil imports from the middle east. story from our financial correspondent. about how seriously our markets taking this retaliatory attack by iran today. the market reaction of

if iran threatens to shut down the persian gulf or the strait of hormuz, they do themselves far more harm than us. >> harris: that was the biggest point, the salient feature of the president's speech. it was his middle east doctrine. if you listen to it, he said, look, americans are doing great. we are energy independent. this is something we thought could never happen. i, myself, was in the middle east. i was in saudi arabia during our last huge spike. people were saying it was peak oil. we were running out of oil. we did believe that the middle east had control over the world, our economies. they do not now because of the shale revolution and all of the oil production in the u.s. he said, look, this is not our problem any longer. we have been accused of being in the middle east for oil for so long. we don't need that oil. i am calling on nato to get involved and get here in the middle east and find a peace solution. this is not for us. that answers that question of people who are saying, are we getting into another war that's going to last forever? he said today quite the opposite.

the strait of hormuz is a focus of oil flow. analysts expect a limited response that could keep a lid on oil prices but expect a floor under them as well because certainly the uncertainty of what the response will be from iran is what really is the problem here, laura. >> u.s. personnel already face serious danger overseas, of course. more proof of that sunday when three americans including a u.s. service member and two civilian contractors were killed in a terror attack in kenya. the attack was carried out by l al shabab on a base. what are you hearing there? >> reporter: laura, as you can imagine what happened yesterday has completely caught the nation by surprise. this morning of course many questions are being asked about how many more casualties there might have been besides the three americans died in the attack as we were told by u.s. africa command. we also know that two department of defense contractors were injured. and last night u.s. command told us they were about to be evacuated but they were stable. of course the

about 1/5 of the world's total oil production comes from the around thehat border strait of hormuz.. i arabia does have capacityy to explore by the rered sea. emirates can also export to bypass the strait of hormuz. there are opportunities for these countries to be able to bypass it. global l stocks have been sliding amid escalating tensions. industrial s scks in eururope ae leading the declcline. . .9%.s ftftse is dowown and the french dax is down 1.6%. >> russia has started delivering gas frfrom its new pipeleline to europe. macedoniaanand north through the neww pipeline. moscow doubling the capacity of nordstrom across the baltic sea to germany as part of i its plas to bypass ukraine in delivering gas to europe. the united states last month imposed sanctions against the companies building new russian pipelines to europe, a move sharply criticized by the european union. >> there's that standoff between the gogovernment andhe l lear of the national assembly. the economic crisis shows no sign o of abating. there is a new indudustry poppig up a at the border. peoeoe than 3.5 million ha

why does america care if the strait of hormuz gets shut off? oil..s. has got tons of china, india, these are the countries that rely on the golf. what kind of pressure are they going to put on iran? byron: i think they will put pressure on iran not to do that. they need the oil. both india and china are deficient in oil. they are going to do what they can to keep the strait of hormuz open. they will put that pressure on, and that will be a neutralizing force. unlikelihood of that surprise taking place. but if iran really wanted to take decisive action, that is something they could do, but that would drive india and china more towards the u.s. we will see whether that happens. vonnie: byron is sticking with us. a lot more to talk about, including some predictions for the 2020 elections. byron, again, staying with us. and aviation regulators is the boeing 737 that crashed in iran try to turn back before plunging to the ground. the ukraine international airlines jet disappeared from radar at 8000 feet. witnesses say they saw it on fire in the end. meanwhil

in the strait of hormuz it has a lot of presence in saudi arabia the u.s. right now has about $5000.00 troops in iraq and the purpose of those troops after the withdrawal of iraqi troops under the obama administration is primarily to lead operations the anti isis coalition. presence in erbil you know that is kind of a u.s. for a long time a u.s. stronghold because it's right at the heart of kurdish territory in iraq and those have been traditionally the greatest allies of the americans in iraq in particular the other bases in the middle of the sunni triangle so that's kind of an area that if we were talking 15 years ago was a real source of anxiety because that's really where a lot of the insurgency after saddam hussein was kind of rising now that. well has kind of flipped and we saw that a little bit in the vote in parliament in iraq in baghdad where all the shia members were the ones who were voting for the expulsion of american troops in this non-binding resolution and the sunni's and the and the kurds didn't participate so it is it's more symbolic than

editor our bid is with us here in the studio but this is absolutely no surprise i guess that strait of hormuz that tiny little area where what is it 20 percent of the world's oil goes out you know $34000000.00 barrels every single month go to the united states through that particular strait and if there had been an attack on the or a blockage of the straits of hormuz then you know we would see or oil prices shoot up to $150.00 a barrel and that would be catastrophic for the global economy but what we have seen is a very limited strike on bases in iraq and that has been so much for relief to the markets so initially we saw the markets for by 2.2 percent in japan but that man has recovered we expected u.s. markets opened lower by about 1.7 percent but few just again how pead back and all this because of president latest tweet. is all was all that well oh yeah and so that has kind of calmed things down if there was an immediate response from the united states then we could have seen a next escalation and we could a scene market's going even even verve that any that's interesting this i feel if w

here to protect the strait of hormuz going forward. it's been a tumultuous year. tanker attacks here off the shores of the uae, pipelines hit in saudi arabia, the big refinery. now even a threat to neighboring dubai which is a global tourism destination and also a regional financial center. people are on edge. they hope this is a measured response from the iranians. >> yeah. all right. reporting from abu dhabi. thanks. >>> from banks to the power grid, companies are scrambling to make sure they are protected from a cyberattack from iran. a reminder that iran has more than ballistic missiles in its arsenal. experts say universities, fuel pipelines, telecom networks, and water supply could be some of the targets. we have seen an attack from iran before. in 2013 the iranians were able to hack a dam outside of new york city and gain control of the floodgates. yesterday the department of homeland security told companies to close any old or weak portals to the wider internet and to scan for where they need software patches. >>> boeing says it will recommend pilots recei

other extreme, the iranians shutting down the strait of hormuz where 20% of the world oil transportsay. that's why we only saw the market go up two dollars per barrel here rather than eight dollars per barrel in september when the facilities in saudi arabia were attacked. >> i have been hearing about the risks of the -- risk to the strait of hormuz for a long time. if there were a real disruption, look at the due to the price? if there was a real disruption and the streets were iosed for a significant time, could see where the press of oil would exceed $100 per battle and countries would open up their strategic petroleum reserves to bridge the gap until they could reopen the straight. >> how likely do you think they could be? >> it is low on my list of possibilities. iran has to decide of course they are anti-american but on the other hand, they are trying to beef up their alliances with china and russia. closing the streets would not benefit china who is already importing over 10 million barrels per day. >> there is a question of how much of a potential slowdown in growth due to ris

m strait of hormuz. what sort of implications does that have? only this, there are lots of speculations about targets all over the region against american interest but not only american interest, american allies's interest and that includes the golf and israel. we don't have any idea about what type of reaction the iranians will do or when they are going to do it. we know from following the foreign policy of iran that they think a lot and prepare a lot to take the right action at the right time. that will serve their strategic interest and at this moment with this big blow to the iranians security by targeting the iranians security by targeting the second top leader in the country, they are definitely planning on hitting hard. just to finish off, we are talking a lot about the region itself but why does what is happening in the middle east now matter globally? this is a region that has been in turmoil for decades and it affected the whole world in different ways because of different countries have different interest in the region, but certainly

but i think also back to the straits of hormuz and of tthe persian gulf. i think the arab gulf countries are very nervous because they've tried to pursue passive deescalation. that hasn't really manifested. we haven't seen the sanctions relief that iran is seeking. and i think that iran is very much backed into a corner right now. and it is only through escalating and upping the ante and getting into that unpredictable territory that iran could, potentially, find a pathway to negotiation with the trump administration. >> you say that talks are still on the table, should iran want that. it doesn't appear that that is a route that the -- the iranians are ready to take. at least not as we consider these images of qasem soleimani's casket and funeral procession through the streets of baghdad. as we've been discussing. further funeral services for qasem soleimani, iran's top military commander in iran, monday and tuesday. thank you. >> well, the streets of baghdad, packed as mourners gather to remember the victims of the u.s. strike. more on that in the couple

and the tanker in the strait of hormuz. ththe attack on saudi araramco's will facilities was a majojor shock back in september of last year. those major events have had significant impact on the oil market each time. as you can see, how brent and crude prices move in the past three years. the u.s. pullout of the nuclear deal set off of roller coaster ride. about 1/5 of oil traraded around the world goes to the strait of hormuz, or tankers came under attack last summer. in previous flareups in tension with the u.s., iran second the supply of oil from the gulf, and that is because sanctions on iran's vital energy sector are hurting its economy. iran'n's gdpthehe imf, fofor 2019 is estimated to have contracted 10%. a spectacular to come to given that economy group 12.5%-- spectacular decline given that the economy grew 12.5% the year after the nuclear dedeal was signed. tom: for investors to be thinking about on the final day of the first week of a brand-new year. reporter: that is right. the global stock markets started the ye

in the last year, it was targeting an american drone, targeting ships in the strait of hormuz. ian golf, to sink oil tankers, launched the largest attacks on saudi arabian petrochemical facilities in years. soleimani was behind the attempted assassination of an ambassador in dc and planning to target the saudi embassy and israeli embassy in washington dc. >> amazing they didn't take out someone who was a washington spy who they thought was a mexican cartel member coming off in washington. listen to what time magazine didn't get your head around this. how to talk to your kids about the situation with iran. who was qasem soleimani, a top military leader, and except for this portion, country in the middle east. seems like a nice guy, why did we kill him? >> a warmonger, leading she am islamist, mastermind of the region, executed and -- the leader of lebanon who put the country -- >> 500 bombs. >> the movement he was leading cost 241 american lives in barracks in beirut in 1983, 19 american airmen killed in saudi arabia in 1996, this guy was a warmonger targeting america and america

it does come down to the energy complex big companies all rely on the flow of oil through the straits of hormuzwhat they do, the scale and the impact across the middle east will be front and center >> stick around, let's bring in dave maza. talking about the fear of missing out for 2020 and this settling of tensions overseas, does this attack do anything to change your thesis for the year? >> it does need to change our focus. the move in oil price is not really driven by the impact. often times we have seen these strikes are actually short term. it pops and then it falls off. it is interesting and oil prices move higher in december. energy prices did quite well in december for different reasons tensions were coming off, fear was coming off now it is back in. >> you seem to be making this a short-term concern we've seen others say the game has changed. you've had the foreign minister of iran call this international terrorism. why aren't you more concerned about the long-term impact here? >> i will agree, this is a major escalation one needs to think about something ee kwal to taking out the vice

has a vast arsenal of weapons both on land in the air and on the seas they could shut down the strait of hormuz they could shut down the supply of a 5th of the of the world's rule 21 percent daily travels through the strait of hormuz obviously they could strike a plethora of u.s. bases in the region. the one thing that we can be sure of is that they will react how they'll react is anyone's guess. because some saline money has joined his mouth or brothers but we will take vigorous revenge in america. now this of course on the back of previous u.s. accuses accusations that same silly money had been responsible for attacks on u.s. troops in fact that they claimed that he had been responsible over the years that the 517 american soldiers in iraq obviously knew new way to verify this number but the state department is saying so and they had warned that they would carry out unilateral action preemptive defensive action whatever that is you know this is your guess my guess but they they they did warn that this could potentially come on or a. draw some indications that they may be planning additional a

about 20% of global supplies travel through a narrow strait of what is called the straits of hormuz whichies just to the south of iran and there are fears there could be disruption. you can see what happened on the market earlier today in asia and actually, this is a better picture of how things were immediately after the missile attacks because then we saw share markets like the nikki two to five down by a much more and the price of oil really spiked. it has come down since then. as you can see in european trading, this is london and germany, we are seeing losses across the board. our middle east business correspondent sameer hashmi now joins us from dubai. tell us more about how the oil markets will react to this. as you we re markets will react to this. as you were mentioning the oil prices shot up were mentioning the oil prices shot up after news came out that iran had attacked us military bases in iraq, and now they have come down a bit. i'm going to say that when the news came out, they were expecting retaliation from iran, but nobody expected they would strike military bases, and t

and we have to be clear about that if you look at the positioning of iran regionally and the strait of hormuz strait 20 percent of the world's oil passes through the narrowest point between iran and oman is only $33.00 klunk just wide those waterways those those shipping lanes are only 3 kilometers or white now iran can close the strait of hormuz we don't know how long they will be able to sustain that but that would cause global disruption iran does have the ability to strike united states bases in regional countries and it earlier on yesterday there was some talk about 1000 bases in the region that statement was quickly retracted from within iran but they do have the ability to target those bases has been like in lebanon have missiles they can target israel or the hutu rebels have shown that they can target saudi arabia and and shia militias inside iraq have said that if iran is attacked they will target u.s. bases and u.s. forces so iran cannot have a direct conflict with the united states but they will give it a goal but look there is no appetite for a full out war here iran is making it

the strait of hormuz and of course the 2 countries share the narrowest point between the 2 countries in the strait of hormuz that strategic waterway is only 33 kilometers so iran holds of more of the sort of very close to their heart and more and has represented iran in cases with the embassies have been closed in such as the united kingdom and canada said by their speaking to us from tehran thank you i said well now let's go to mohammed our lots have been yemen's capital and mahmoud we've been hearing there about the mediation efforts that kabila is and participated in in the region he also was very much the quite diplomat when it came to trying to end the war and yemen talk us through how he is now regarded in santa. yes. the late sultan. been side has played a major role in bringing to the negotiating table the warring sides. including the whole fees and also the international governments he has also facilitated in the some of the problems that faced yemeni especially with the saudi improves the blockade and ban on some international airport facility to be a fly the medical flights

geopolitically, we should note not just europe, but also china, relies significantly on the strait of hormuz for their oil supply. that is just another indication that china has an interest in this for this to de-escalate as well. however, in contrast with that, the president views his unpick ability as a key ability -- his unpredictability as a key ability of his, and that is what you have seen in his public comments within the past 72 hours. guy: this has dominated the news cycle during that period. we haven't spoken a great deal about impeachment. i am curious as to the decision to take questions. this was originally scheduled as an address to the nation. now it is turning into a press conference. why? kevin: that is how the president prefers that. you saw a preview of it at the state department yesterday with secretary pompeo. the president and administration officials and private conversations, and what i would predict to be increasingly public conversations over the next day or so, are going to push back on the notion that the strike against soleimani was not the right course of action

[laughter] david: the strait of hormuz. are we committed to keeping open the straits of hormuz at any cost, militarily? sec. pompeo: we are going to keep them open. we are going to build out a maritime security plan. countries from all across the world that have a vested interest in keeping those waterways open will participate. it will take more time than we wish it would take, but i am very confident that the world understands that it is important. that america is prepared to be a significant part of that, but we need countries from all around the world to assist us. we will be a success. david: our position is that if a u.s. ship were taken by the iranians, we would presumably do something militarily, i guess. i don't know. what about if a ship is taken that is a british ship or some other nationality? are we not committed to recovering that ship or doing something to defend those ships? sec. pompeo: i was working with -- i guess i am now working with my third british foreign minister since i have been secretary of state,

will it be minding the strait of hormuz? will it be an attack on facilities? the iraqi oil infrastructure in focus or the strait of hormuz? we will get to another oil conversation later in the program. manus, thank you for setting that up for spn manus cranny in dubai. our guest is still with us. it was interesting to see in that conversation, he went on, bob mcnally went on to talk about how oil prices could get to $80 a barrel. what does that do to oil fx in your world? >> if you look at the smaller currencies in our space, g10 and the region, canadian dollar in the region, they were outperform her spirit i would expect more relative resilience of those, especially against oil importing currencies in the region. it could outperform the swedish crown from here. maybe a good entry point to establish a fresh long set. the fact that these are liquid currencies puts them at a disadvantage against so-called safe havens, especially against the dollar, and i think the dollar's role now is also as an oil currency, where the u.s. is the biggest oil producer in the worl

producing nations worried theoretically iran could put a dent in the region's exports by closing the strait of hormuz for example 20 percent of the world's oil supply is being shipped through that waterway because it's unclear how far the 2 sides could go uncertainty is widespread. the united arab emirates is keen to assuage fia's oil supplies said the country's energy minister i'm not on the stret that's not. what is what is what is happening the it is you know. this that we have seen through the state of the movement of. the straits of wholeness is a waterway between iran and the u.a.e. iran uses it to transport oil as do many of those saudi arabia the united arab emirates kuwait iraq and. in fact around 20 percent of the world's oil moves through the strait which aim places is no more than 4 kilometers wide iran regularly threatens to obstruct the channel several oil tankers were attacked last year with iran suspected of being responsible. then in september saudi arabia's largest refinery went up in flames again all eyes fell on iran it rejected the accusations but tensions are clearly heightening

will they close the straits of hormuz or storm our embassy in iraq but these are a new set of risks thatidn't exist two days ago every year at this point i like to look at the biggest winners in the dow jones industrial average and s&p 500. get a sense of whether the rally is sustainable this year making three assumption, first, the election matters to the stock market and the democratic nominees matter too and expect the market to do better in a trump buying race or a trump/sanders race i'm bette the economy will keep humming along at a healthy pace that won't make the federal reserve compelled to raise interest rates they've learned their lesson, third, whatever happens with iran, it won't be a big enough deal to upend our economy. could there be other events that knock us off course? absolutely but then we do what we always do when the facts change, we change our strategy with that in mind, let's drill down the best performers in the dow for 2019 apple. apple was at the top of the heap, roaring 86% last year. of course, apple got clobbered in the fourth quarter of 2018 erasing losses

korea, thechina, strait of hormuz are vital areas. remarkable thee markets were so quiet. i think that is clearly complacently. expectation that we have seen most of the escalation and the competition is de-escalating. there is a sense of comfort. they also sense the u.s. has enabled the market to absorb any disruption in the world. both expectations could be wrong. host: you mentioned the countries getting their oil and gas from the middle east, which countries are they getting it from? the number one exporter is saudi arabia. then you have experts from almost entirely to northeast asia. they were hit by sanctions twice under the obama administration until the negotiation agreement of the jcpoa. then by the trump administration taking effect november of two years ago. with an escalation in may when washington removed the sanction waivers that allowed countries to keep importing at low levels. arounday, experts from -- from iran have been a trickle. host: he said saudi arabia is the largest producer. 12 million barrels a day compared to 4.7 million or iran. the ua around 4

case again if not worse you know keep in mind that a 3rd of the world's oil passes through the strait of hormuz we're talking about you know smilies of barrels a day of oil thirsty john as we wait and see what happens in the middle east we're also watching to see what happens between russia or russia has a right only now continued its oil supply with the eastern european country after cutting off cutting it off early in the week so what more do you know about that. yeah this was also a pretty significant story you know speaking of oil and oil supplies so bellerose a started reprocessing russian oil after a 5 day suspension when russia cut off oil shipments to its eastern european neighbor the leaders of both countries have been negotiating energy supply contracts for several weeks now along with discussions about expanding economic and political ties russian president vladimir putin met with his counterpart in alexander last month and seeing petersburg you may recall to discuss its commitments to belarus and future agreements relies on russia for more than 80 percent of its overall energy needs

those families should know we built out a coalition we're patrolling the straits of hormuz and an airnse strategy attached and we have multiple country to sanction them. we have built out a strategy that will ultimately put america in place and they won't threaten the american hostages and we have worked diligently to get those held in iran back. we had one returned just within the last several weeks. we continue to work on that progress to get heavy america held anywhere in the worldinclud theocrats in iran to return the american hostages and we'll never give up. >> if targeting soleimani is not regime change what are we advocating if not regime change? >> as i said before, chuck, we clearlyç stated our straefrj f three years, the leadership in irall the iranian people. we saw the protests. i'm confident we will continue to see protests. they weren't protesting against america. they weren't protesting and saying death to america. they were demanding that the iranian leadership behave in a way that takes care of the iranian people and i'm confident that the american support we provid

rebels in yemen they have militias in syria but also strategically where iran is placed in that strait of hormuz important water. a that sees 20 percent of the world's oil passing through at its most narrowest point between iran and on mine is only 33 kilometers wide and the and the shipping lanes are only 3 kilometers wide and iran has always threatened say that if there is a war iran will close down the strait of hormuz. just a quick wit if you don't mind as well and. funeral the burial which was supposed to happen yesterday of course there was that stampede which killed upwards of 40 people and so it was postponed what's been happening today. but in the early hours of this morning customs of the money was buried it was postponed because this is a city of martin says home city he want to be buried in the cemetery next to people for people that had died fighting in the iran iraq war and it has a population of 820000 people but hundreds of thousands of people from around the country came to bid farewell in this final procession as his body has been taken to the cemetery but the authorities had t

of additional service members from the airborne 82nd to kuwait. and now, the deputy has been replaced, and the british navy is accompanying the u.k. straits in the strait of hormuz, and the u.s. is bracing for possible iranian cyber attack, and you said that the world is a better safer place, and i can hear you saying it is in the long run, but how about the safer today given the heighten level. >> my strategy is clear heretia done so. we have done so by working with the partners and making it clear to the islamic regime in iran, that their rogue behavior is no longer tolerated. and the general had it right that we would have been culpably negligent if we had not taken the strides against soleimani. i know that risks to america over the long run is much reduced as a result of the actions that president trump and the administration has taken in the last three years. >> okay. that is in the long run, but i am talking about the short term and let me ask you a question. do you know for a fact that the mission that soleimani was working on and the attacks that he was planning, have they been called out? >> we are prepare for anything that the islamic republic may do,

whether they shut down the strait of hormuz, that would be a major international provocation. i suspect they will not move to do that just because it wouldn't be in their own interests in terms of moving oil supplies. but certainly, they will try to make their -- their point known. >> thanks to both of you. kelly and ali soufan. joining me now is nbc's co-host of morning joe first look. he's reported extensively from the region. ayman, you are keeping tabs on what is developing right now. for those people expecting an immediate response or terrorist attack somewhere, that's not likely how this is going to play out with iran. >> yeah. that's the initial assessment we're getting from the region. in fact, some people kind of describing it as the three days or the three ds rather. the decision day of taking the strike. the day after, which is where we are now. and then the decade after. so the question now becomes, okay, well iran has been able to withstand this strike. they're obviously going through a period of nation mourning. we're starting to get some shene of how the regime i

concerns that regional tensions could escalate further but tension disrupting crude supplies the strait of hormuz located between a man and iran connects the persian gulf with why does the ways some 20000000 barrels of oil pass through this choke point every day any hint of trouble in the region sends the prices climbing the persian gulf is home to 3 of the world's top 10 oil nations when measured by oil reserves iran's mainstream exports have already been squeezed by u.s. sanctions but iraq has become one of the region's biggest exporters and now it's ground 0 for the current crisis. news of the nation pushed brant crude up just over 4 percent on thursday where it's at $69.50 a barrel before settling its the biggest price jump since a mid september attack on saudi oil facilities which briefly slashed output in the world's top exporter by half global markets fell on the news of the latest strike investors bracing for worries turns to safe haven assets such as bonds swiss francs and gold which notch to a 7 year high late on friday. let's go now to our financial correspondent in new york ian's kord

disruption to energy supplies, and of course, there are a lot the middlessets in east, including the strait of hormuzaudi arabia has major exports, and they experience an attack last year. kathleen: it seems like, over the past three or four days, that a number of analysts have said, yes, this is an upward force, but that there is enough supply out there, certainly within the u.s.. you have the shale oil production, that a lot of people seem to think that, at $70 a barrel, there is a bit of a downward force on the price of foil going much higher. -- oil going much higher. aaron: there's a lot of supply out there. zeroan exports are next to because of u.s. sanctions. also, iraqi exports a specific rate of crude that a lot of asian refiners me. -- need. they are already paying a premium for that. it could shift prices just because, you know, they export a specific grade that a lot of refiners, particularly in asia, need. but there is supply, there's also specific grades that refiners need, and iraq provides a lot of that. haidi: aaron clark joining us out of tokyo, continuing to watch this changing sit

but pass the talks like they hit on oil tankers in the strait of hormuz last year for instance didn't have a lasting effect on the oil market what can we expect this time around. yeah i think this time this is were a little bit different the oil market is slightly tighter so people are going to be very worried about supply disruptions particularly if it's iraqi crude because this is the type of crude the world wants right now if you look at the sanctions that have been put on venezuela on the iran this is the same kind of oil very heavy kind of oil so it will be very difficult for the market and really would push prices up if there are disruptions that thank you christopher hans energy aspects in london thanks very much. to south africa now where foreign investors unloaded nearly $10000000000.00 u.s. dollars worth of south african stocks and bonds last year the largest selloff in over a decade president cyril ramaphosa has failed to jumpstart the economy after 2 years in office indications are mounting that the country is sliding into a recession and it could lose its last investment

the biggest concern as far as oil markets go, is what happens on the strait of hormuz. passage that links the persian gulf to the rest of the world. it is very important for global water supply because nearly 2196 global water supply because nearly 21% of total oil is shifted through this passage, countries like saudi arabia, uae, omagh news ‘s passage to transport oil to asian countries, some of the biggest consumers, china, india, south korea. they were passing through, it has threatened in the past that it will block this passage which will create problems as far as global oil supplies go. will this be one of the chins —— options? this time around there is a strong feeling that they could target some of those vessels that will be passing through this passage. some people have come out and said they will provide security but that doesn't really guarantee com plete but that doesn't really guarantee complete surety that nothing would happen. all right. thank you so much. let's talk you through another story, very interesting. hackers are holding foreign exchange company

blames iran for attacking oil tankers in the strait of hormuz. two weeks later their corps downs a u.s. surveillance drone. one month later the iran navy captures another tanker in the strait of hormuz and one month after that another is shot down and houthis, iranian based group takes responsibility and then attacking u.s. oil facilities wiping out an astonishing amount of oil supply. and then hope when the u.s. and iran exchange prisoners. the u.s. blames an iranian backed militia group for killing a u.s. civilian contractor. days later the u.s. responds by striking facilities in iran linked to that group. on new year's eve, iran responds, pro iranian demonstrators storm the embassy in baghdad, protesters are surreal trying to scale the walls and set fire to the ground and break windows and overturn equipment. the last week, president trump orders a strike against the man considered the second most powerful official in iran. general qassem soleimani and iran responds by firing missiles housing u.s. troops and vows harsher revenge is still to com

example is calling for restraint right now and another option always on the table is closing the strait of hormuz the international trade route in iran specky art but iran's supreme leader is carefully weighing his options right now because if he's taking on too weak response he might lose face but if his response is too excessive then he risks a full war and by that his poem may be and keeping the islamic republic to life is his main goal always the days of top of their well european countries are watching with concern as events unfold unfold in the middle east germany has troops stationed in iraq as part of international efforts to combat the so-called islamic state their mission is restricted to education and training but that work has now stopped following the u.s. air strike on friday. iraqi soldiers learning the skills to rebuild a country the german military has now holds at its training programs the situation too dangerous for instructors germany has around $400.00 soldiers stationed in iraq and jordan as part of its parliament approved and he's let me state mission now lawmakers are star

. >> eric: islam to block the strait of hormuz, much of the oil passes through.ecently blamed for attacks against tankers they are. now home irani and military action on the u.s. not just on the land but supply much of the world its oil. for someone who knows about that, officer john jordan joins us with the very latest. he is at the hoover board of overseas. but first of all, what possible damage could iran due to the maritime interest? we look at the tank awards in the 80s. do you expect that we could have reoccurrence of that? >> perhaps for a short time, but any attempts by iranian navy to interdict merchant traffic through the strait of hormuz would be short-lived. today's navy is more equipped technologically to deal with asymmetrical warfare. for them to do so would result in the swift destruction of iranian naval assets engaging in that inner praise. >> eric: so what type of reaction do you think we will get from the president tomorrow morning when he speaks to the nation and the world? do you think there will be retaliation, or that he will pull back now

example is calling for restraint right now and another option always on the table is closing the strait of hormuz the international trade route in iran spec yard but iran's supreme leader is carefully weighing his options right now because if he is taking a 2 week response he might lose face but if his response is too excessive then he risks a full war and by that his poem maybe and keeping the islamic republic alive is this main goal always sort of just a case of wait and see i guess over these next few weeks stefan will go back to your president trump says he ordered the strike on friday to prevent a war can we expect to see any declassified intelligence about what exactly the threat was. it is possible but i wouldn't count on it of course the democrats want the president to release more information because they're highly suspicious on the over the timing of the order to eliminate customs so in money there is perhaps the suspicion that this was done also out of a political calculus to get some distraction on the ongoing impeachment process let's not forget that this is still going on here in wa