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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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they have been rising all day on the back of the ecb announcement. e stocks are climbing to the eyes. there does not seem to be any particular catalyst for that. and of course, the other component of today's rally does not just have to do with that -- that is earnings in the u.s.. presentation companies came out with estimates and that is helping gains. something else i wanted to point out was an individual stock. avon shares are soaring and this after report that tpg, the private equity firm, and has had talks with the company about a possible transaction. they have climbed to comment or cannot be reached for comment. avon has been struggling and today though shares are getting a pop. mark? >> julie hyman at the breaking desk, thank you. egypt ranks number two in unemployment in africa. i interviewed the company -- the country's investment minister. i asked him if you jets who is largest trading partner is the european union, will be affected by the ecb decision to begin a massive stimulus program. >> europe is the major trading partner of egypt and
they have been rising all day on the back of the ecb announcement. e stocks are climbing to the eyes. there does not seem to be any particular catalyst for that. and of course, the other component of today's rally does not just have to do with that -- that is earnings in the u.s.. presentation companies came out with estimates and that is helping gains. something else i wanted to point out was an individual stock. avon shares are soaring and this after report that tpg, the private equity firm,...
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Jan 19, 2015
01/15
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BLOOMBERG
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the goal of the ecb is a result of these asset purchases. would look at that as mainly an effort to keep the euro cap. or to use the dollar strength as it were to the ecb advantage. i think it will support medium-term growth. the credit dynamic and the lending dynamic. it is something that should support the euro over the medium-term. the upside growth potential and possibly even inflows to private asset markets. >> i want to talk about the next rate very quickly, will they have to put that up a little bit? where else am i putting the money? >> that is a fair point and certainly one of the things that i think will protect the ecb from being extremely aggressive. you want to call it boj-like. it is something that could slow the ecb down from a very aggressive announcement. my preferred option would be for the ecb to keep most of the bond buying program under wraps. we could get as much as 11 5 trillion over the next year -- 1.5 trillion over the next year or so. because draghi has credibility he has more credibility on this issue of supporting
the goal of the ecb is a result of these asset purchases. would look at that as mainly an effort to keep the euro cap. or to use the dollar strength as it were to the ecb advantage. i think it will support medium-term growth. the credit dynamic and the lending dynamic. it is something that should support the euro over the medium-term. the upside growth potential and possibly even inflows to private asset markets. >> i want to talk about the next rate very quickly, will they have to put...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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CNBC
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that's up to the ecb. politicians that concentrate on what they have to do make their countries competitive and put their countries straight. we still have a lot of work to do. one thing is clear. the decision of the ecb shouldn't take the politicians off the hook. they still have to do what's necessary. >> if we consider as far as the damage done to the euro zone in terms of a lack of structural reform would you agree that certain policy makers, you don want to interfere with the ecb but by limiting monetary policy there's damage done there too. >> i don't think we should limit the ecb. we focus on it and have a full scope of instruments to use and to apply when necessary and that's their decision and at the same time politicians should get on with dealing with their economies and opening up markets and making the labor markets more flexible. all the things we call structural reforms. >> as far as risk sharing is concerned, are you against risk sharing? that does send a message about the willingness of oth
that's up to the ecb. politicians that concentrate on what they have to do make their countries competitive and put their countries straight. we still have a lot of work to do. one thing is clear. the decision of the ecb shouldn't take the politicians off the hook. they still have to do what's necessary. >> if we consider as far as the damage done to the euro zone in terms of a lack of structural reform would you agree that certain policy makers, you don want to interfere with the ecb but...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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BLOOMBERG
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we have to start with the ecb. on the verge of taking its boldest step yet to fight deflation. ecb president mario draghi may announce massive bond buying program that could exceed $1.2 trillion. it is in that boosting consumer prices that are now falling on an annual basis. not everybody is on board. the plan is been criticized as too little, too late. the head of germany's central bank said it is not needed. in eastern ukraine, the balance is getting worse.
we have to start with the ecb. on the verge of taking its boldest step yet to fight deflation. ecb president mario draghi may announce massive bond buying program that could exceed $1.2 trillion. it is in that boosting consumer prices that are now falling on an annual basis. not everybody is on board. the plan is been criticized as too little, too late. the head of germany's central bank said it is not needed. in eastern ukraine, the balance is getting worse.
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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the ecb is making an independent decision today. the germans are a big part of this. y ecb decision cannot replace government action. it's all saying the same thing we have heard before. i've never heard some people come out -- so many people come out who want this action and say this action will not do anything. >> how much of it has been priced in? it looks like it is set to disappoint markets. looks like chancellor merkel is protecting herself from her own domestic critics. one further indication that we will get u.s. style qe. >> we are still getting economic numbers in the u.s. 300-7000 -- >> 7000 above what economists had predicted. why is this number important? it gives us some insight into what happened with the job market as we got further into january. did we see an extension of the strength we saw in december? this number which does represent a decline week over week could be seen potentially as a positive sign. the estimate was for 300000 and we got 300-7,000. not that significant. when you look at the continuing claims, 2.4 million and continuing claims. r
the ecb is making an independent decision today. the germans are a big part of this. y ecb decision cannot replace government action. it's all saying the same thing we have heard before. i've never heard some people come out -- so many people come out who want this action and say this action will not do anything. >> how much of it has been priced in? it looks like it is set to disappoint markets. looks like chancellor merkel is protecting herself from her own domestic critics. one further...
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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CNBC
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he has been speaking to him from the ecb. what did you get the sense of if we're looking at a weaker euro here then job well done. >> i think the market is listening to this interview and what's interesting is i address addressed the euro question with them. the ecb doesn't like talking about the euro but i said there are those economists saying we go sub parody. he didn't say it shouldn't go down that quickly. he basically said we don't pick a target which to my mind says to the market help yourself guys. off you go. we've sent you the message that we're very comfortable. let's also talk about what he said on the market reaction as well. this was fascinating. the ecb is always a little careful about how it talks about different markets. it doesn't want to be seen as an active market participant although inevitably it is but he's telling me that the market's response was pretty much what they would have liked to have seen. that to me suggests he believes the market has validated the ecb's announcement. let's listen to what he
he has been speaking to him from the ecb. what did you get the sense of if we're looking at a weaker euro here then job well done. >> i think the market is listening to this interview and what's interesting is i address addressed the euro question with them. the ecb doesn't like talking about the euro but i said there are those economists saying we go sub parody. he didn't say it shouldn't go down that quickly. he basically said we don't pick a target which to my mind says to the market...
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Jan 19, 2015
01/15
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the ecb cannot do this on its own. edit -- uroplasty stand together. >> -- europe has to stand together. >> you cannot slam them down. they have taken the pain and they will get their. >> -- get there. >> we have a problem and we are looking at from a number of different directions. we no longer have the fact. the ecb cannot fix what is wrong in europe. we are in the eighth year of a depression and there will be a ninth year and attempt here and prices will go down -- and 10th year and prices will go down. there is no way the ecb can fix this. >> if i am buying something -- is buying spanish debt risk free? >> buying any debt should not be risk-free. there certainly is risk there. is germany going to bail? germany can't. there is risk. you look at greek government bonds. not because they were safe but because people recognize them. everybody believes that germany and other european countries and suddenly they were safe. the fact is, they are not safe. >> you are intimating that whatever happens are we looking at a japan
the ecb cannot do this on its own. edit -- uroplasty stand together. >> -- europe has to stand together. >> you cannot slam them down. they have taken the pain and they will get their. >> -- get there. >> we have a problem and we are looking at from a number of different directions. we no longer have the fact. the ecb cannot fix what is wrong in europe. we are in the eighth year of a depression and there will be a ninth year and attempt here and prices will go down --...
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Jan 7, 2015
01/15
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BLOOMBERG
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that is with the ecb did already. first idea of what it could look like and then the meeting afterward, they follow up with more details. >> the fact that they are going to announce something is already priced in. they are going to have to announce something in size. are they going to hint at the fact that this is going to be big? >> i think right now probably the biggest challenge for the ecb is just to fulfill expectations, to fulfill what is priced in and not to disappoint. i think they will not announce any number, but what they could do is kind of reemphasize or strengthen this intention to increase the size of the balance sheet. i think if they would strengthen this commitment, it could be enough for markets to really believe and make this qe announcement very credible. >> what is your biggest concern? we talked about growth. we talked about your expectations for the ecb. we talked about oil prices. how much of your -- are you thinking about the rise of extreme parties? >> i think that is the biggest risk. just k
that is with the ecb did already. first idea of what it could look like and then the meeting afterward, they follow up with more details. >> the fact that they are going to announce something is already priced in. they are going to have to announce something in size. are they going to hint at the fact that this is going to be big? >> i think right now probably the biggest challenge for the ecb is just to fulfill expectations, to fulfill what is priced in and not to disappoint. i...
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Jan 19, 2015
01/15
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the count down underway for ecb decision day. ramps up speculation that berlin is behind a qe program. and society general said it will split the ceo and chairman roles. fed rico keeps his job while former ecb board member steps in as chairman. >>> and on this monday morning let's take a look how european markets are trading. of course the big question the mover this week will in fact be that ecb meeting on thursday. that meeting where mario is expected unveil a bond buying program. right now we're looking at markets higher across the board. in fact, the euro stock 600 index is trading at the mull year high. gains for monday looking at european markets what does it mean for the bond market? we have seen a little bit of yield compression over the past couple of weeks as investors move out of equities and into bonds. right now looking at yields slightly slower than the 10-year bond which is seen as a safe haven trading at .45%. the tenure in italy 1.7%. let's go to the currency space where we're seeing moves there. on friday we did
the count down underway for ecb decision day. ramps up speculation that berlin is behind a qe program. and society general said it will split the ceo and chairman roles. fed rico keeps his job while former ecb board member steps in as chairman. >>> and on this monday morning let's take a look how european markets are trading. of course the big question the mover this week will in fact be that ecb meeting on thursday. that meeting where mario is expected unveil a bond buying program....
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Jan 9, 2015
01/15
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the market continues to front run qe from the ecb. we will wait until the back end of this month for confirmation on whether that is going to happen. if mario draghi is looking for a debt in the currency versus the dollar, he is being helped out. if we get a strong number today, maybe that will change. >> i would also mention the data we had out of germany this morning. it showed that industrial production on it actively fell in november. exports dropped more than we were expecting. effectively signaling a slowing recovery in germany something that maybe investors took their eye off the ball. >> one thing that did stabilize markets yesterday was the oil price. today, we've got it moving a little lower. we are trading just north of 50. we have moved 1% to the downside. let's take you back to the developing story we have in france. caroline connan has been making her way to the town of dammartin this morning. >> all the media are gathered on a roundabout near the outskirts of dammartin. we cannot approach more. the zone where one hostage
the market continues to front run qe from the ecb. we will wait until the back end of this month for confirmation on whether that is going to happen. if mario draghi is looking for a debt in the currency versus the dollar, he is being helped out. if we get a strong number today, maybe that will change. >> i would also mention the data we had out of germany this morning. it showed that industrial production on it actively fell in november. exports dropped more than we were expecting....
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Jan 15, 2015
01/15
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a senior advisor to the european court of justice says the ecb program is legal. advocate general says that the ecb's offer to buy bonds for troubled countries does not violate government sovereignty as some eurozone members say. >> in 2012, at the height of the eurozone debt crisis, the ecb pledged to do whatever necessary to save the euro. >> august 2012 the moment markets waited for. european central bank president mario draghi promised to do whatever it took to save the eurozone. >> we would consider taking a -- undertaking further nonstandard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. >> a few weeks later, the ecb unveiled a plan to shore up the euro by buying government bonds from trouble eurozone economies. germany's bundesbank said the ecb exceeded its mandate, but a senior advisor to the eurozone's top court says it is legal. but it must operate under restrictions. the ecb must state its reasons for buying bonds the bank is not allowed to provide direct financial assistance, and they cannot interfere with
a senior advisor to the european court of justice says the ecb program is legal. advocate general says that the ecb's offer to buy bonds for troubled countries does not violate government sovereignty as some eurozone members say. >> in 2012, at the height of the eurozone debt crisis, the ecb pledged to do whatever necessary to save the euro. >> august 2012 the moment markets waited for. european central bank president mario draghi promised to do whatever it took to save the...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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we have to start with the ecb. european central bank on the verge of taking its boldest step yet to fight deflation. ecb president mario draghi may announce massive bond buying program that could exceed $1.2 trillion. it is in that boosting consumer prices that are now falling on an annual basis. not everybody is on board. the plan is been criticized as too little, too late. the head of germany's central bank said it is not needed. in eastern ukraine, the balance is getting worse. artillery killing at least 13 people. ukrainian forces have pulled back from airport terminals in donetsk. violence has stepped up since to negotiation's between ukraine and pro-russian rebels broke down last week. germany's foreign minister said there were tangible progress in new peace talks. a new twist in the wireless wars. google is preparing to sell wireless service directly to consumers. a move that lead rivals to improve speeds and cut prices. google has reached deals use the networks t-mobile and sprint. no word whether google ser
we have to start with the ecb. european central bank on the verge of taking its boldest step yet to fight deflation. ecb president mario draghi may announce massive bond buying program that could exceed $1.2 trillion. it is in that boosting consumer prices that are now falling on an annual basis. not everybody is on board. the plan is been criticized as too little, too late. the head of germany's central bank said it is not needed. in eastern ukraine, the balance is getting worse. artillery...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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CNBC
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this is a bet on the ecb. the people doing this were betting that the ecb would disappoint. that's a hard call to make. >> two sides make a mash. it was a crazy thing to do that. we knew they were try to do something big, and they did. >> you talk about as an asset manager, protecting the portfolio, you have a big portfolio, take no insurance on it, and they disappoint it and the market cracks he loses value in the portfolio. >> maybe they don't disappoint, but it's factored in the market. >> that's the bottom line. >> protected themselves big. >> the overall money compared to what's trading every day is small. >> okay thanks guys appreciate it very much. check out the article on powerlunch .cnbc.com, and we appreciate it, guys. what are you doing over there? stop it now. the ultimate judgment on mario draghi -- it's the naked shorts thing, ksh the stimulus news has been and will be the news. sara eisen has where it stands now. >> a lot of shorts i don't know about naked ones. you see it in the euro action. it is plunging we're at levels not seen since back in 2003. this is
this is a bet on the ecb. the people doing this were betting that the ecb would disappoint. that's a hard call to make. >> two sides make a mash. it was a crazy thing to do that. we knew they were try to do something big, and they did. >> you talk about as an asset manager, protecting the portfolio, you have a big portfolio, take no insurance on it, and they disappoint it and the market cracks he loses value in the portfolio. >> maybe they don't disappoint, but it's factored...
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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it was all about the ecb yesterday. that is what happens to the euro . 1.113 at the moment versus the dollar. down almost 2%. so big moves when it comes to currency. thanks for marriott draghi. big moves in oil. sad news on the back of the death of the king of saudi arabia. he lived to a grand old age. how it is trading on the day. up pops up 2%. questions about whether his brother will continue with his predecessor's policies. also, will they keep their oil minister? big questions but oil markets are getting a boost on the back of the saudi arabia's king abdulla's passing. this is about ecb returning. borrowing costs driving down. italy down. 1.46% italy is looking to borrow on the 10-year. spain able to access the market at 1.3%. germany still less than half a percent. bond markets getting a push high er. a quick look at a few stocks this morning. we have got m&a. it is all about telecom. at least they find a buyer for 02. 10.25 billion pounds. talk talk had been faulted as potentially what would be bought. trading hig
it was all about the ecb yesterday. that is what happens to the euro . 1.113 at the moment versus the dollar. down almost 2%. so big moves when it comes to currency. thanks for marriott draghi. big moves in oil. sad news on the back of the death of the king of saudi arabia. he lived to a grand old age. how it is trading on the day. up pops up 2%. questions about whether his brother will continue with his predecessor's policies. also, will they keep their oil minister? big questions but oil...
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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KQED
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if it can, the ecb bought the equity market longer one way. if it can't, volatility will come back. >> for u.s. investors who may be holding bank stocks overseas or banks that have large currency operations and w other day to some of them when the swiss frank made its move should they lighten up on the holdings perhaps or avoid those type of stocks if the volatility is that? some call it a currency war. >> yeah if you're holding that sort of rotate into exporters. you heard about how exciting and should be. it's much more competitive than six months ago. so if you want exposure in europe focus on those companies that have large export activities. they are benefitting enormously from a dramatic move in the europe. >> thank you, mohammed el-erian with ai lienz. >>> defended its currency against the euro and china injected $5 billion into the nax's money markets today keeping commercial banks flushed with cash after china's economy grew the slowest rate in more than two decades last quarter. >>> more international economic news today. but this ti
if it can, the ecb bought the equity market longer one way. if it can't, volatility will come back. >> for u.s. investors who may be holding bank stocks overseas or banks that have large currency operations and w other day to some of them when the swiss frank made its move should they lighten up on the holdings perhaps or avoid those type of stocks if the volatility is that? some call it a currency war. >> yeah if you're holding that sort of rotate into exporters. you heard about...
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Jan 12, 2015
01/15
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BLOOMBERG
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to prevent that from happening and the time is now for the ecb. lay much longer. >> we are expecting everybody almost the quantity is now the $1 billion question. if they do not do more, will the markets be disappointed? >> it could be open more. we want to reach the one trillion for ourselves and will use all of the assets as will and into bonds. if that is not enough and print inflation up and expectations we will keep the door open to extend further. that kind of language. >> in terms of the german aspect in it would've heard concerns about all of this and the ruling , but kind of an early indication from the east j on wednesday. if the ease cj decides --ecj decides there is a need to be more open, how will the markets read as being a negative? >> an important constraint would be the issue of seniority. if the ecb is [indiscernible] it is going to crate selloff. -- create selloff. it will not go down well with the markets. the open end of it as well as the seniority potentially, we will know more and what happened important concept. >> antonio,
to prevent that from happening and the time is now for the ecb. lay much longer. >> we are expecting everybody almost the quantity is now the $1 billion question. if they do not do more, will the markets be disappointed? >> it could be open more. we want to reach the one trillion for ourselves and will use all of the assets as will and into bonds. if that is not enough and print inflation up and expectations we will keep the door open to extend further. that kind of language....
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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KQED
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like the fed here at home the ecb wants inflation back up at 2%. but qe comes with huge economic and political risks, especially in germany. it's the largest and most stable of the 19 euro zone nations. if one or more of those countries cannot repay their notes, germany may have to shoulder the burden and no one is even sure which countries will be getting the most help for now or who will end up having to pay for it later. if nothing else qe european style will be a tricky dance. >> we need the government. we need the parliament to be on board and even i have to say we need the social partners to be on board because, again, they have a decisive role to play. >> our guest tonight says the ecb will likely deliver on a massive bond buying program tomorrow. he is alec young, chief strategist at oppenheimer funds. great to have you here. >> great to be here. >> i guess it's the component of the package that everyone is focusing on. how do you expect it to be allocated and what do you expect it to look like? >> well we've seen a draft proposal that the e
like the fed here at home the ecb wants inflation back up at 2%. but qe comes with huge economic and political risks, especially in germany. it's the largest and most stable of the 19 euro zone nations. if one or more of those countries cannot repay their notes, germany may have to shoulder the burden and no one is even sure which countries will be getting the most help for now or who will end up having to pay for it later. if nothing else qe european style will be a tricky dance. >> we...
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Jan 21, 2015
01/15
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the ecb is already in action. the euro is down spreads right now negative in many countries at the front end of the curve. where's the incentive to go structural when that kind of asset price -- >> it's the only game in town. we practically ran out of room on the monetary policy side. the ecb is the last actor to join in on the qe. everybody else is coming out of the other door because they tried it and did it and they're leaving it to some of us. the question is why is it the only game in town. simply, interest rates, 0. and then you say okay let's go fiscal. let's spend our way out of this. well we did that. already. and we have increased 30 to 40 basis points 30 to 40% debt to gdp ratios. >> so we're more vulnerable than we have ever been. >> so the only game in town the only short-term is the long-term issues of structural change. so we go structural. we go institutional and let's go social also. remember there's a lot of victims or a lot of vulnerable people because of the crisis. there's still very high level
the ecb is already in action. the euro is down spreads right now negative in many countries at the front end of the curve. where's the incentive to go structural when that kind of asset price -- >> it's the only game in town. we practically ran out of room on the monetary policy side. the ecb is the last actor to join in on the qe. everybody else is coming out of the other door because they tried it and did it and they're leaving it to some of us. the question is why is it the only game...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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we had to get back to the ecb decision. our team in davos caught up with uk's chancellor to get his reaction. >> this is welcome action from the european central bank. action from a central bank is necessary but not sufficient. we want to see this company by earlier plans to make european continent more competitive. to create jobs, to make sure public finance is in order. we have all those ingredients in the u.k.. our economic plan is delivering a stronger economic recovery. we want to see that in place on the european continent so the whole of europe c recovers. >> coming up, bill gates. stick around. ♪ >> will gates changed the world with microsoft and spent the years trying to change it in a different way. -- bill gates. they released their annual letter making a big bet that over the next 15 years, living conditions of the world's poorest people will improve more than ever before in history. i asked bill gates why he is so confident in making this protection. >> there is a lot in the pipeline, whether it's medicines or t
we had to get back to the ecb decision. our team in davos caught up with uk's chancellor to get his reaction. >> this is welcome action from the european central bank. action from a central bank is necessary but not sufficient. we want to see this company by earlier plans to make european continent more competitive. to create jobs, to make sure public finance is in order. we have all those ingredients in the u.k.. our economic plan is delivering a stronger economic recovery. we want to...
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Jan 21, 2015
01/15
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they are focused on what is happening with the ecb. i think oil is the real standout story. >> for me, it is indecision. last year, the participants seemed to have a better handle on the situation. here, they are more lax. >> there is a lot of uncertainty. >> the same for keeley. >> they can't figure out the impact. the pace is what is confusing them at the moment. the oil price has come down so fast. the swiss franc went up so fast. >> that is what freaks them out. >> there are a few black swans flying over davos. it is going to be interesting to get a take on that. south africa's central bank governor is going to be joining us. he is fairly new to the job. 2 "the pulse -- looking forward to that conversation. >> then, we have the eni ceo. this is one of the biggest oil companies in europe. it will be interesting to get his take on where the price of oil is going. we've heard everything from $30 back up to $50 and $60 depending on how much the ceo focuses on the optimism. >> maybe we will end up with both of them. you just don't know.
they are focused on what is happening with the ecb. i think oil is the real standout story. >> for me, it is indecision. last year, the participants seemed to have a better handle on the situation. here, they are more lax. >> there is a lot of uncertainty. >> the same for keeley. >> they can't figure out the impact. the pace is what is confusing them at the moment. the oil price has come down so fast. the swiss franc went up so fast. >> that is what freaks them...
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Jan 21, 2015
01/15
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stay "in the loop." ♪ >> we were just talking about the ecb and monitoring easing. of the european central bank, foreseeing asset artist is up 50 billion euros a month through the end of 2016 according to two euro-area central bank officials. i want to get to scarlet fu who has much more on this report. >> an ecb spokesman declined to comment on what we have learned here at bloomberg. ecb is set to decline quantitative easing of 50 billion euros a month through the end of 2016. purchases will be focused on sovereign bonds and they would not start before march will stop the ecb meeting is tomorrow. mario draghi announced this decision at about 7:45 a.m. eastern time. he then holds a press conference at 8:30 a.m. eastern time where he then answers more detailed questions on this. the formal announcement again comes tomorrow morning from frankfurt. once again, the officials asked not to be identified but the latest numbers we are getting here is 50 billion euros a month of quantitative easing that is sovereign bond buying a month through 2016 that would not begin until
stay "in the loop." ♪ >> we were just talking about the ecb and monitoring easing. of the european central bank, foreseeing asset artist is up 50 billion euros a month through the end of 2016 according to two euro-area central bank officials. i want to get to scarlet fu who has much more on this report. >> an ecb spokesman declined to comment on what we have learned here at bloomberg. ecb is set to decline quantitative easing of 50 billion euros a month through the end...
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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that is really how the ecb has beaten expectations. they have not cap the program you're hearing the word open-ended from two central-bank governments and one from the ecb -- >> why because that underlines the message they will do whatever it takes? >> i ask the italian banker if he said he will do whatever he takes and he said well, it's not that, but it is our job. >> and may actually deliver? -- can they actually deliver? he said they are talking about buying 60 billion euros a month. he said i'm having trouble buying $200 million in a day. even if it materializes, you will drive the places down to the point where it does become a pushing on a string issue. >> the argument is there. >> drives the prices up and the yields down. >> they are trying to drive the euro lower, and it's working. >> people will migrate out of euros into dollars. >> it is an export story. spain, italy, france, they make stuff. if you devalue it becomes cheaper to sell. reading between the lines it would make sense. >> isn't the only story in europe right now w
that is really how the ecb has beaten expectations. they have not cap the program you're hearing the word open-ended from two central-bank governments and one from the ecb -- >> why because that underlines the message they will do whatever it takes? >> i ask the italian banker if he said he will do whatever he takes and he said well, it's not that, but it is our job. >> and may actually deliver? -- can they actually deliver? he said they are talking about buying 60 billion...
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Jan 5, 2015
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that is the next ecb meeting. ta, which may show consumer prices recording the first annual drop in more than five years in december because of the sliding cost of the price of oil. how low will the euro go in 2015? >> that has to be the line for the whole of 2015. if you haven't had enough of the latest electronic goods he bought over the holiday season gadget geeks has even more to come. here with all the details is caroline hyde. i saw this article. it has become a little bit of a victim of its own success. >> it's huge. it starts tomorrow. they have to be pouring in 100 60,000 visitors. that's almost double the amount you can crown into wembley stadium. there are going to be more than 3000 companies showing. -- they have to be pouring in 160,000 visitors. they say, we have to rein this in. we cannot expand at the same rate we had. two miles of floor space that people are going to be looking at. drones, robots even connected appliances. everything is going to be there to play with. i wonder how many uber drivers
that is the next ecb meeting. ta, which may show consumer prices recording the first annual drop in more than five years in december because of the sliding cost of the price of oil. how low will the euro go in 2015? >> that has to be the line for the whole of 2015. if you haven't had enough of the latest electronic goods he bought over the holiday season gadget geeks has even more to come. here with all the details is caroline hyde. i saw this article. it has become a little bit of a...
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Jan 7, 2015
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but still, of course far below the ecb's target of 2%. he managing director, ahead of institutional portfolio strategy. andrew, good morning to you. thanks for joining us. let's kick off and discuss a little bit about those eurozone inflation numbers. should mr. draghi be focused on the headline number or the core number? if oil price res the cause of dipping below 4% should he act still? >> yeah, good morning. i definitely think oil is having an impact on the overall inflation sector here. most central bankers will tend to try to look through that and tend to focus on the core numbers. we've had a partnership tugz drop in oil that is dragging down overall prices, putting pressure deflationary pressures out there. i think it's one more quiver or one more reason why the ceb will get one step closer to being more aggressive here. certainly they have on clear some hurdles in terms of the decision in about a week or so from now. in the month, it is setting up for the ecb to be more aggressive. >> exactly speaking the u.s. markets look for attr
but still, of course far below the ecb's target of 2%. he managing director, ahead of institutional portfolio strategy. andrew, good morning to you. thanks for joining us. let's kick off and discuss a little bit about those eurozone inflation numbers. should mr. draghi be focused on the headline number or the core number? if oil price res the cause of dipping below 4% should he act still? >> yeah, good morning. i definitely think oil is having an impact on the overall inflation sector...
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Jan 14, 2015
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. >> the ecb first introduced the concept in 2012.nabling purchases of sovereign debt in secondary markets. they are considering whether they convene eu law. this meaning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the court opinion is nonbinding. if it goes against omt, mario draghi might wind his options on easing in the euro zone are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb president. for more, hans nichols has traveled. you are back in berlin. this opinion really is quite important for him and the future of the eurozone. >> we will see. good morning, manus. he'll put on his lawyers cap and sifting through this opinion. i suspect he will look for any guidance that may be construed that could be applied in -- and translated to quantitative easing. restrictions. what sorts of limit would be placed potentially on bond buying programs for sovereign assets? this is key. the fed announced it. they had specific conditions when connotative easing would end. -- quantitative easing would end. that is what we're looking for today. how clear
. >> the ecb first introduced the concept in 2012.nabling purchases of sovereign debt in secondary markets. they are considering whether they convene eu law. this meaning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the court opinion is nonbinding. if it goes against omt, mario draghi might wind his options on easing in the euro zone are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb president. for more, hans nichols has traveled. you are back in berlin. this opinion really is quite...
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Jan 29, 2015
01/15
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these are bonds owned by the ecb. ve 30 billion of bonds that were given as a subsidy to the greek banks and accepted by the ecb as collateral. if greece is not in the program if the ecb decides not to roll over, then all these bonds go to the emergency liquidity assistance. we all know that the e.l.a. is not actually ideal. to put all of your -- >> i'm just wondering where the critical point is. i'm trying to understand the dynamics of how the story evolves. is it the banks that we should be focusing on? there has been a severe erosion in the equity holdings, but as you say, it is the ability to continue to function within the liquidity squeeze that seems to be pivotal. am i misreading that? >> back in may 2012, greek banks had 140 billion in the e .l.a. people think in terms of bank runs. it is a bank marathon. people withdrawing money slowly. you are not going to see queues outside atm's. what we are saying now is that all the cards, financial cards, are in the ecb's hands or the german hands. what we don't know is
these are bonds owned by the ecb. ve 30 billion of bonds that were given as a subsidy to the greek banks and accepted by the ecb as collateral. if greece is not in the program if the ecb decides not to roll over, then all these bonds go to the emergency liquidity assistance. we all know that the e.l.a. is not actually ideal. to put all of your -- >> i'm just wondering where the critical point is. i'm trying to understand the dynamics of how the story evolves. is it the banks that we...
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Jan 22, 2015
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a look at premarket on this day when the ecb makes their move. re on that in a minute as "squawk on the street" continues. being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. she inspires you. no question about that. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take ci
a look at premarket on this day when the ecb makes their move. re on that in a minute as "squawk on the street" continues. being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful...
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Jan 14, 2015
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nothing can stop the fact that we are likely to get qe from the ecb. is there anything in this that vitamin can latch onto? is there anything they can use to maybe limit the scale and scope of the qe that we are likely to get? >> honestly, just browsing through the text, it looks like a green light on all aspects. they more or less give the green light to do whatever the ecb wants to do. this is what qe will be about. qe will be about finding deflation. this is a severe issue for monetary policy. i think they got a big backing from the european court of justice. >> it is a nonbinding opinion but advisory opinions such as these are usually followed by the court in majority. we also heard from mario draghi in the paper saying he has to do monetary policy for 19 countries, not one. this is directly addressed to germany. how much are we going to get in terms of qe from the ecb next week? because we've had such a buildup to this it is going to be such a disappointment if we don't get it. >> i think there is no way out but to announce qe next week. the big qu
nothing can stop the fact that we are likely to get qe from the ecb. is there anything in this that vitamin can latch onto? is there anything they can use to maybe limit the scale and scope of the qe that we are likely to get? >> honestly, just browsing through the text, it looks like a green light on all aspects. they more or less give the green light to do whatever the ecb wants to do. this is what qe will be about. qe will be about finding deflation. this is a severe issue for monetary...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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BBCAMERICA
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where's that announcement from the ecb? minute we hope the to get that announcement. let me explain. hello there, yes, the european central bank is as we've been mentioning, expected to announce it will inject up to $1 trillion into the ailing euro zone economy. in seconds, in minutes, the ecb could purchase government bonds, tell tens of billions of euros, every single month, until the end of 2016 double the amount i guess, that was previously expected. three major economies have carried out qe in recent years. and we know what it is. we've got the u.s. the uk and japan. let's take a look at how well all of that worked out. because in america, the federal reserve, they bought u.s. bonds, u.s. debt basically, worth $3.7 trillion. they've been doing that or have been doing that since twagt. the u.s. central bank said in november that it would end its program, was its targets for inflation and reducing unemployment were on track. they were on track to be met. so in the uk, it's estimated by some that about $570 billion worth o
where's that announcement from the ecb? minute we hope the to get that announcement. let me explain. hello there, yes, the european central bank is as we've been mentioning, expected to announce it will inject up to $1 trillion into the ailing euro zone economy. in seconds, in minutes, the ecb could purchase government bonds, tell tens of billions of euros, every single month, until the end of 2016 double the amount i guess, that was previously expected. three major economies have carried out...
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Jan 16, 2015
01/15
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especially if the ecb ends up going against quantitative easing. now i have spoken to a number of people. many saying it's drama across the board. somebody saying it's not as bad as what it looks. give it a month or so and you should see some equilibrium recalibrating and taking place on the swiss e trade just as we have seen over the last couple of months as well. back to you. >> thank you. we'll continue to keep our eye on the developing story out of switzerland but also the run down. let's look at the economic data coming out in the u.s. headline prices expected the drop. 9:15 december industrial production and just before 10:00 a.m. we get the first read on january consumer sentiment. joining us now the ceo at tgm investments. still with us is jim o'sullivan. jim given the lackluster data we got out on retail sales earlier this week which economic indicator do you think is most important today? >> well they're all important. i would say for the cpi the core is the most important part. the headlines is going to be down. the core consensus up .10.
especially if the ecb ends up going against quantitative easing. now i have spoken to a number of people. many saying it's drama across the board. somebody saying it's not as bad as what it looks. give it a month or so and you should see some equilibrium recalibrating and taking place on the swiss e trade just as we have seen over the last couple of months as well. back to you. >> thank you. we'll continue to keep our eye on the developing story out of switzerland but also the run down....
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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investors took a positive view of the steps taken by the ecb. now all the details of the main moves for us. what did you see this morning? >> thank you very much. yes, indeed, investors here pretty much following suit from european markets as well as u.s. markets. and that's after the ecb announced its plans to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds every month. so let's see exactly where the morning session wrapped up. the nikkei at 17,473 and the broader topix up 3/4 of a percent. the risk meant there was a rush back into stocks and key exporters gained as the dollar rose against the yen. so i was tracking a couple of the blue chip sector shares, just to name a few of the worldwide popular names there. but also we were tracking steel makers as well as energy related shares as the price of crude jumps 1.7% during u.s. trading hours. so showa, one of the biggest gainers. manufacturing data out of china during the morning session, and that was also seen as a positive. hsbc flash pmi data coming out. nidek shares were met with selling despite upgradin
investors took a positive view of the steps taken by the ecb. now all the details of the main moves for us. what did you see this morning? >> thank you very much. yes, indeed, investors here pretty much following suit from european markets as well as u.s. markets. and that's after the ecb announced its plans to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds every month. so let's see exactly where the morning session wrapped up. the nikkei at 17,473 and the broader topix up 3/4 of a percent. the risk...
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Jan 21, 2015
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we need the ecb. we need the ecb to do more.de to move and on the other hand we need governments, parliament to be on board. i have to say, social partners to be on board because, again, they have a decisive role to play. >> all right. now you mentioned, and in my final minute and a half here drop in energy price is a good thing. i'm dplad glad you said than the kilowatt hour in germany versus u.s. it's much higher. but you also talk about disinflationary forces. when it comes to energy which is it why is it interpreted as another part of the negative issues pushing prices down if it's a positive for the manufacturing and economy as a whole? >> well we -- as we have inflation, we are already very low. even before the fall of the price of oil, we had dangerous associated with too low inflation for too long a period of time, much lower than our definition of price stability. on top of that you have the decrease of the price of oil, which is both expansionary for the real economy and disinflationary. i would say, all taken into acc
we need the ecb. we need the ecb to do more.de to move and on the other hand we need governments, parliament to be on board. i have to say, social partners to be on board because, again, they have a decisive role to play. >> all right. now you mentioned, and in my final minute and a half here drop in energy price is a good thing. i'm dplad glad you said than the kilowatt hour in germany versus u.s. it's much higher. but you also talk about disinflationary forces. when it comes to energy...
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Jan 19, 2015
01/15
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the ecb did meet this week. officer of standard & poor's will talk about a massive week for the eurozone. that is next. >> time for today's company news. is the travel misery for eurozone customers finally over? they recover. british infrastructure specialist john lange could announce an initial public offering as early as today, valuing the company at one billion pounds. that has been announced that john mine group will proceed with the primary offering on markets. the italian luxury suit maker is tearing up its budget after the y unexpectedly removed the cap. the chief executive will meet the managers today and review everything from the size to reising. -- pricing. he told bloomberg that about the wake of that move. >> it came unexpected. i think it's a little bit disruptive. it is of concern. our costs are going to go up. i think considering switzerland is strong, i think they will suffer. >> we're going to head to munich, where hans nichols is joined by the technology companies. stay with us. ♪ >> 50,000 new
the ecb did meet this week. officer of standard & poor's will talk about a massive week for the eurozone. that is next. >> time for today's company news. is the travel misery for eurozone customers finally over? they recover. british infrastructure specialist john lange could announce an initial public offering as early as today, valuing the company at one billion pounds. that has been announced that john mine group will proceed with the primary offering on markets. the italian luxury...
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Jan 22, 2015
01/15
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exciting is the of the ecb-fueled rally today. jones industrials seemed to hit resistance at 17,820 with a gain of 260, it's still quite impressive. but that level of 820, 7,820 -- 17,820 on the dow would put us in positive territory. the transports leading the way. you have 52 s&p 500 companies hitting record highs today. so we're talking the markets' every move until the close and beyond. don't go anywhere, keep it here. she's still the one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasti
exciting is the of the ecb-fueled rally today. jones industrials seemed to hit resistance at 17,820 with a gain of 260, it's still quite impressive. but that level of 820, 7,820 -- 17,820 on the dow would put us in positive territory. the transports leading the way. you have 52 s&p 500 companies hitting record highs today. so we're talking the markets' every move until the close and beyond. don't go anywhere, keep it here. she's still the one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be...
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Jan 14, 2015
01/15
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it will give guidance to the ecb on how they might do easing and the restrictions. it is interesting that he is speaking here and merkel is there. he is having clear comments and saying yes, he has a mandate and monetary policy is more than just what happens in germany. he says the ecb is ready to buy government bonds and that it sounds like he is announcing quantitative easing, which we all expected on thursday. we will see if this is the attempt to prepare the germans for the inevitable. in some ways, he may take a look at the advisory opinion. it's not the full opinion from the court of justice. he may look at this as more guidance that is not binding and proceed as planned for preparing politically and the financial structure of what they are going to do, if and when they announce quantitative easing. >> we will talk to you again in about six minutes, when the nonbinding opinion is going to do out. it is strange to you that mario is meeting with merkel on a day -- the important day for the potential of getting she we? how much does the opinion matter? >> althoug
it will give guidance to the ecb on how they might do easing and the restrictions. it is interesting that he is speaking here and merkel is there. he is having clear comments and saying yes, he has a mandate and monetary policy is more than just what happens in germany. he says the ecb is ready to buy government bonds and that it sounds like he is announcing quantitative easing, which we all expected on thursday. we will see if this is the attempt to prepare the germans for the inevitable. in...
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Jan 23, 2015
01/15
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>> i think this is welcome action from the ecb. on from a central bank is necessary, but not sufficient or a european recovery. we want to see this accompanied by clear plans to make the european union more competitive, to back business, to create jobs and make sure public finance is in order. we have those ingredients in the u.k. and that is why our plan is delivering a strong economic recovery. we want to see those ingredients in place for the whole european continent. >> you have a weakening euro. you have an aggressive stimulative policy by the ecb. it is going to lead to a more positive europe. we are not addressing some of the major structural issues. i would call this -- this is going to give europe more time to hopefully fix itself. >> this type of approach that mario draghi is using should have been employed much earlier in the financial crisis, which would have gotten europe on a similar kind of platform that the u.s. has been on. >> whether it is too late or not, the debate has been how effective this package could be. on
>> i think this is welcome action from the ecb. on from a central bank is necessary, but not sufficient or a european recovery. we want to see this accompanied by clear plans to make the european union more competitive, to back business, to create jobs and make sure public finance is in order. we have those ingredients in the u.k. and that is why our plan is delivering a strong economic recovery. we want to see those ingredients in place for the whole european continent. >> you have...
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Jan 14, 2015
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do you see this as a victory for the ecb? top judges in europe saying the own program is legal and necessary. >> it's obviously helpful for the ecb and is what they announced back in 2012 but let's be clear. in terms of what the ecb is going to do or not do on the 22nd of january this decision had little baring. at the end of the day, full blown qe it's very different from what the omt was set up to achieve. we're just looking at certain sovereigns with issues. so this is very different in a sense. the ecb would have always worked around what the eu have done. so it's helpful. it also removes one actual risk which some people were speculating that on the 22nd they would announce full blown qe and then say we need to save legal judgment on this. it's more difficult for germany to throw spatter into the works but at the end of the day qe is coming. it's just a question of when. >> it's not just a question of when but surely a question of how much and how exactly it's did deployed. >> that's right. the easiest way is a couple of
do you see this as a victory for the ecb? top judges in europe saying the own program is legal and necessary. >> it's obviously helpful for the ecb and is what they announced back in 2012 but let's be clear. in terms of what the ecb is going to do or not do on the 22nd of january this decision had little baring. at the end of the day, full blown qe it's very different from what the omt was set up to achieve. we're just looking at certain sovereigns with issues. so this is very different...
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Jan 21, 2015
01/15
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is that a focus for the ecb? danish peg holds, and we hold that as being the highest position. if that holds, effects traders like to squeeze the neck of anything they can get their hands on. they will have a push at the norwegian krone and the swedish kroner as well. >> i think they said that they have a little bit of room from her new ring. the reason is that both -- room for maneuvering. the reason is the exports a lot of oil and it weekend on the back of oil prices in the last few months. they were quite clever. they were preemptive rate cuts during the course of last month. when the ecb first one negative -- went negative they came out with a bigger rate cut. i think they have been playing the game very quite well. both of the central banks have it as well as central banks at the czech will be on higher alert because of the euro continues to weaken the ecb is in effect exporting its deflationary risk and the central banks may take further action this year. the currency is paying out in europe. this was the b
is that a focus for the ecb? danish peg holds, and we hold that as being the highest position. if that holds, effects traders like to squeeze the neck of anything they can get their hands on. they will have a push at the norwegian krone and the swedish kroner as well. >> i think they said that they have a little bit of room from her new ring. the reason is that both -- room for maneuvering. the reason is the exports a lot of oil and it weekend on the back of oil prices in the last few...
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Jan 21, 2015
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we have greece, the fomc meeting, the ecb meeting. the same until we get past these macro catalysts. >> 50 billion euros per month. that number was a number that everyone is looking for and people are wondering if that is enough to get people to make positions. >> it is a positive. that is that the higher end of what people were expecting to bring the ecb balance sheet up to a level that people are happy with. there are more details that need to be figured out. are they going to be investment-grade bonds? is liability going to be left up to member countries or is the ecb going to take responsibility? a lot of details are still unknown? >> those details won't necessarily come out tomorrow at the ecb news conference. the volatility could last until the next ecb meeting. >> that is true. the level of detail and specificity with regard to the asset purchase program will be a driver of volatility in the near term. >> january expirations were last week. the january contracts tend to be heavily traded because it is one way for people to set a
we have greece, the fomc meeting, the ecb meeting. the same until we get past these macro catalysts. >> 50 billion euros per month. that number was a number that everyone is looking for and people are wondering if that is enough to get people to make positions. >> it is a positive. that is that the higher end of what people were expecting to bring the ecb balance sheet up to a level that people are happy with. there are more details that need to be figured out. are they going to be...
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Jan 16, 2015
01/15
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the last word from the options pit. >> you have the ecb next week. re fed meetings between now and march expiration. i like put spreads in march. >> well in keeping with the gold thesis we think you do embrace some data and go after the low quality if you will minors, low price gdxj. >> this is a situation where we have seen a bump up in volatility and we're not far off the markets highs and that sets up a great opportunity for you finally looking for an opportunity to sell premiums. if you're long stocks you can sell covered calls and if you're not you can sell call spreads like the trade we did in facebook. >> looks like our time has expired. thanks for watching. for more options action check out our website and also option. see you back here next friday 5:30. "mad money" starts now. >>> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome i'm trying to make y
the last word from the options pit. >> you have the ecb next week. re fed meetings between now and march expiration. i like put spreads in march. >> well in keeping with the gold thesis we think you do embrace some data and go after the low quality if you will minors, low price gdxj. >> this is a situation where we have seen a bump up in volatility and we're not far off the markets highs and that sets up a great opportunity for you finally looking for an opportunity to sell...
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Jan 3, 2015
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much of the money that was intended for lending by the ecb ended up here at the stock exchange. we saw new record highs in 2014 until the mood changed. now there are concerns about deflation in europe, a sluggish global economy, and several political crises around the world, including renewed turmoil in greece. >> the last weeks of toy 14 is a taste of what is to come. swings at the stock market will be more frequent and more drastic area the most valuable asset for invest -- investors strong nerves. what does all this mean for german companies? their most important customers are in -- located in neighboring european countries where the overall economic situation remains difficult. synthetic material is running through these pipes. the chemicals industry a sensitive regarding eonomic swings which are looming in 2015 as well. still, many german companies will have a much better year than people expect right now. the reason? germany's strong exports. with the euro weakened, they're more affordable. germany's biggest overseas trading partner, the u.s., seems to be back on growth tr
much of the money that was intended for lending by the ecb ended up here at the stock exchange. we saw new record highs in 2014 until the mood changed. now there are concerns about deflation in europe, a sluggish global economy, and several political crises around the world, including renewed turmoil in greece. >> the last weeks of toy 14 is a taste of what is to come. swings at the stock market will be more frequent and more drastic area the most valuable asset for invest -- investors...
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Jan 12, 2015
01/15
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our focus will be on the ecb governing council meeting. will mario unveil quantitative easing as well as bond buying especially after the negative read on inflation. that's going to be the big question. take a look at the euro dollar. we've been looking a the euro trading lower against the u.s. dollar. 9 1/2 year low trading at 117.96. those who have been watching the trade in 2014, this continues to play out into 2015. ahead of that meeting on january 22nd. the other big story has been oil. >> absolutely. they posted the seventh consecutive decline of seven weeks. they offer just over 2% today. wti at 42.4. brent at 48.the. goldman sacs slashed the oil price forecast to three month price estimate was cut by almost a half to $42 a barrel. but goldman said u.s. crude would need to stay around $40 throughout the first half of the year before shale oil investment would be reduced. let's join steve chief strategies in jacksonville. good morning to you. thank you very much for joining us. let's touch on this oil price decline. because a lot of p
our focus will be on the ecb governing council meeting. will mario unveil quantitative easing as well as bond buying especially after the negative read on inflation. that's going to be the big question. take a look at the euro dollar. we've been looking a the euro trading lower against the u.s. dollar. 9 1/2 year low trading at 117.96. those who have been watching the trade in 2014, this continues to play out into 2015. ahead of that meeting on january 22nd. the other big story has been oil....
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that the ecb would do more and the federal reserve would do less. the you think the ecb can disappoint this year? >> i think there is a risk because of market expectations it will be hard to surpass those expectations. certainly that is a risk in our view and you have to look at inflation numbers as well. very low numbers in germany last week and we are getting those deflationary pressures even after the fall in the euro and it is likely they will have to do more. >> we will talk about that after the break. we talk commodities, they are getting crushed. wti drops below 45. morrison, the ceo will step down. a little bit of a slap in the face for him. wmo morrison climbs on the back of that news. up next, inflation and commodities. stay with us. ♪ >> it is time to talk about commodities getting crushed. look at wti over the last couple days. wti hitting $45 a barrel for the first time since april 2 dozen nine. -- 2009. andrew, everybody talks about oil but all those things are trading lower as well. when you look at this on a net basis, is this still
that the ecb would do more and the federal reserve would do less. the you think the ecb can disappoint this year? >> i think there is a risk because of market expectations it will be hard to surpass those expectations. certainly that is a risk in our view and you have to look at inflation numbers as well. very low numbers in germany last week and we are getting those deflationary pressures even after the fall in the euro and it is likely they will have to do more. >> we will talk...