one is the improved economy. the second is a stunning piece of data that larry summers who has never been accused of being a left wing radical published. if you take 1979, the same allocation of income in 2014. we did not redistribute at all, the bottom 20% would have one trillion more dollars. the top 1% would have $1 trillion less. there has been an economic war in this country and the middle-class and poor have been losing. i think that is what produces this constrained populism and why the environment is to read than 10-15 years ago -- is different than it was 10-15 years ago. >> i think we change more. our angles of vision change. >> you think he is now who he was? >> i think he is a man who talks in narrative terms, turning the page and writing a chapter. he lectured us on the pitfalls of politics. i think quoted himself approvingly, which was always a good sign. i wonder what the secretary of state was thinking. whenever you approvingly quote yourself, it is a sign of something. [laughter] as a great one ma

don't think it will happen, the overall economy should be okay in 2015. et's put the focus on europe. we have got low inflation and some european countries in the grip of other faces. can they escape this? >> it will be slow. if you think of our economy, and the stimulus that the federal reserve implemented in the united states. five years of slow growth and low inflation. europe is starting to get along with this. it will be a while before europe starts to pick up steam. >> do you think a quantitative easing programme in egypt will boost the price points or do you think they are in for another year, two years, three years of pain. what is your outlook. >> two or three years - i don't know if it's pain, but two or three years of slow growth. can't tative easing on -- quantitative easing on the margin helps. because the e.c.b. buys government bonds, that's an expectation. it doesn't mean that europe will roar ahead. we are looking at a slow europe in the next few years. it's a global economy. you expect the u.s. to be insulated from the headwinds. why is th

the big theme is how do they maintain growth at a sufficient level to keep the economy happy. that is the keyword. to keep the economy happy so we don't get pressure and defensive and all things like that there is -- things like that. we are likely to get a default in the residential construction sector. i don't know if everyone has been watching this copper trading scandal but it is interesting and going on all over the scandal -- country where banks have been lending on the basis of commodity collateral and those prices are crashing and causing all kinds of pain for the chinese banks but also some of the foreign banks. that is another thing to be watching and i think we need to keep a close focus on just where the chinese come and go. certainly there is a prospect of further stimulus. just keep an eye on it. we have on the screen, read for down and green for up. i'm afraid that markets today are yellow. we are waiting. we are watching. we had the big shock last week, ari going to see something this week? >> -- are we going to see something this week? >> in terms of the proper

what was weighing on the economy? the housing downturn and soaring debt and there's still plenty of overcapacity in several different industries. now there are many economists that believe that the economy here is now set for a multiyear slow down. the imf is just the latest to weigh in. they are downgrading their forecast for 2015 to 6.8% from 7.1% and 6.3% for 2016. the report today really just intensified a raging debate here about what beijing really should do and what it will do. there were several calls today about how beijing really needed to come in with some sort of stimulus in order to prop up the economy and reach what many people believe is going to be the government target for this year of somewhere around 7%. on the other hand though the imf said that the reason for their downgrade for this year is they believe that the authorities are going to be willing to sacrifice the short-term growth in order to try to achieve their longer term aim of restructuring the economy and putting forth some reforms. so ther

you've been an early champion of the chinese economy. you were among those back in the '80s, i remember you said china is the sleeping giant that's going to awaken. now we have this growth rate though that's the slowest in a generation. is that all part of the plan or does that come as a surprise to you? >> it's interesting, bill. it's the lowest number in umpteen years but it was above forecast above consensus. they are growing 7.5% roughly. if they grow 7 this year upcoming that will be twice the rate of the u.s. they'll make twice the contribution of the u.s. to the global economy and it will be twice the value of what it was ten years ago. the thing is the chinese economy has grown so much so long it's grown up and it's about the size of the u.s. economy in purchasing power. so 7% growth of that big beast is a lot of money compared to either what we're doing or they're doing abroad but chinese economy is changing as the imf report said less heavy manufacturing, less infrastructure less investment spending more consumer products. so yo

i think that the economy can grow 3%. maybe a little more. kind of what we've been averaging better than the last year and a half or so. i think there are two forces behind that. one is the, a lot of the post-bubble head wind that we're restraining the recovery overhaul. credit restraint, government retrenchment. a lot of the stuff is faded. the other is the decline in oil prices giving a nice boost to household purchasing power. those things i think can help us stay in this higher gear and maybe even shift a little bit higher. >> let me turn to art. let's ask if you agree with basically josh's forecast. at the backdrop for u.s. stocks will be pretty good. >> i think josh has it exactly right. when you look at 2015 you're going to be looking at a time frame to have three significant tail winds and all of them positive for u.s. markets. first and foremost we have rising labor. so the more people working, the more money they have to spend. you've got lower energy prices. so you've got more discretionary spending power and then the highest level

the economy grew 8%. there is still a huge discrepancy between urban areas as well as income groups. a report also said that the income gap between rural and organ -- and urban households was further narrow. inflation remained low. consumer prices went up 2.1% in urban areas and 1.8% in rural areas. there also seems to be some bright spots. final consumption expenditure accounted for 51 for 2% -- 51.2% of gdp. the services industry accounted for 48.2% of gdp, again higher than the year before. that is the successful shift that the government wants to see. one potential area of concern. energy consumption is still falling lower. it is hard to tell from one figure but it may indicate lower consumption in some domestic sectors. overall, it is quite a good picture against the background of the managed slowdown and shift in growth model china wants to enact this year. it will be interesting to see what they do next after these numbers. >> we had other numbers as well. other data sets to go through pete how did

eventually it helps the rest of the economy. the dollar goes up and down. i think we may be in for a period where we sort of test the deflationary notion being gone but i think that test is successful. i'm still a buyer on weakness. >> bob, what do you think about the economy overall? and how much of a headwind a stronger dollar presents for it? >> well i don't think the economy has strengthened as much as people were thinking at the end of the year. i think we do have this hit on the energy side. i think it's bigger than people anticipated. spreads into the steel industry and machine industry as we're seeing in some earnings reports today. and then there's the stronger dollar to cope with later on. i think there's enough slack in the world economy that we're not going to see wage pressure through job market or global market. wage pressure isn't going to emerge. it's not about the u.s. unemployment rate it's about the global job market. so i think the economy's not going to go ahead as people expected and the fed may postpone that rate hike to to 16. >> joh

that has helped the european economy. it helps all the european economies. any time germany is among the company -- among the countries that profits most. this helps europe as a whole to rebound. >> what it does also highlight is the difficulties europe has had in the last few years trying to get out of this quagmire that it finds itself in. that is also through the prism of this bifurcated interest rate environment with the u.s. and the u.k. going in one direction and the europeans and japanese going in the opposite. >> that would assume -- and i think every time we talked about in the past, we have been wrong -- it would assume there is a long-term sustainable recovery of the u.s. and the u.k. from the rest of the world economy. you can see that europe will continue to have low interest rates, expand the balance sheet, the same in japan. here in china, there is discussion of monetary easing. there is a likely development of interest rate reductions here. it is merely a differential that is there at the moment. i don't think the fed can continue on the annou

bigger sectors of the economy, starting with health care. how much is that affected by growth? >> zero. education, how much is that affected by growth. zero. little. if you look at the big sectors, they have a lot of ties with the rest of the world. a real significant slowdown or downturn in the rest of the world will hurt. if all we talk about is slower global growth it doesn't cause the economy to go back into recession. >> this is the question that is so important. that is wages. we see an uptick in the last employment report. do you think this could be the year when u.s. workers see a meaningful increase in their paychecks? >> i think potentially it could. what is really important is not necessarily what you see in the pay check, it's purchasing power. what we believe we'll see is acceleration in nom nam wages, but in -- nominal wages, but inflation should be low. look at gasoline prices down 40-50% putting extra purchasing power in people's pockets. at the end of the day, that's important. we believe that purchasing power will be stronge

. >> the fed is more bullish on the u.s. economy. there is new language about inflation running too low, but they expected to eventually rise toward the 2% target and they are factoring and international circumstances. let me walk you through the statement -- first of all, the new language on the economy. information received since the federal open market committee met in december suggests economic activity has expanded at a solid pace. labor market conditions have improved further. some of the new language on inflation -- inflation has the longer run objective, large a -- largely reflecting declines energy prices. inflation compensation measures have declined. survey-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have remained stable. like a lot to say inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term. the committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2% over the medium-term as the labor market moves forward and transitory affect dissipate. the committee continues to monitor inflation of elements closely. as a f

the lender estimates the world economy in 2014 grew 2.6%. officials say the u.s. omy will grow this year by 3.2%. that is up 0.2 of a point from the june forecast. the economists expect the u.s. will play a leading role in the world economy. but they calculate eurozone growth at 1.1% down 0.7 point and they revised down japan's growth to 1.2%. japan's recovery has been sluggish since it hiked its consumption tax. and the lender projects china's growth at 7.1%, which is down 0.4 point. analysts at the bank note the steeply lower crude prices will be a big help for oil importing nations. they say the effects will lift global growth about half a percentage point for the next two years. but they warn that the trend could hurt oil producing nations. they say the lower crude oil prices could destabilize the economies and financial markets. they predict, russia for example, will contract this year by 2.9%. >>> the decline in oil price continues, crude futures in new york briefly fell below $45 a barrel. for the details on tokyo stocks ramin mellegard joins us. he has a fu

the economy minister tells us that the russian economy could shrink by 5% this year. vernor cuts interest rates. the unscheduled move to stimulate the largest economy. copper rebounds after the worst start of the year since 1988 and the biggest drop. metals bounceback and credit growth surges. i am looking at futures markets higher by 95 points and we go higher on the open with manus cranny at the touchscreen. >> we will get a bounce after a session yesterday. the debate is whether to air on the side of a pace that you are concerned about growth in the u.s.. do you believe that we will test intermediates and what will that do to the oil market? do you believe china? there are big themes play with the markets. the oil will be around $55.

what is expected to happen, not only to the greek economy but also the global economy? >> well, if the opposition side get in which now looks like a real possibility, i mean, a real possibility of a greek exit out of the eurozone becomes a prospect to be seriously concerned which i think is very considered, rather which i think is a very interesting situation, indeed. it comes as no surprise to me that this situation is arising. but it's interesting to observe the attitude of the germans. i mean it looks as though they are starting to prepare the ground for a greek exit, which is rather interesting. >> if the certain countries, euro zone countries do exit, the repercussions not only for the economy of germany but the banking system and the banks which hold so much of the bonds. >> i think there are the financial risks, if you like, the largest risks involved here but it's it is a very -- if you like -- inconsistent situation for the germans. i think, in a sense, the germans are sort of sighing a sigh of relief that at last they may be able to get rid of the greeks from w

economy. the economy that has bedeviled him for the first six years of his administration. lot of economic data out of the state is good. he talked about middle-class economic. at numerous stages, he claimed credit for the economic revival. >> for all the tasks that lie ahead, the shadow of crisis has passed. the state of the union is strong. [applause] >> most of his proposals whether or not it is a new tax on banks or new capital gains rate although we are up to 20%, most of these are going to go nowhere in a republican-controlled congress. the speech was a most aspirational. it was about framing the debate for i-16 and what is going to happen next. republicans were widely critical. -- four 2016 and what is going to happen next. republicans were widely critical. the president was trying to set the terms for the 2016 election and have a few areas where he could make have some agreement. he did talk about tax reform on the corporate side. also, trade deals. it is easy to do with the republican con

so much to do with the economy. the first time barack obama has been able to stand up at a state of the union and genuinely say the state of the economy is strong. it still has problems the wage growth is too slow and there's income ineconomic but the gdp growth is up. corporate profits all of those things soaring right now. he's able to come with the wind toes his back no one could have anticipated in november. you and i charlie talk about narrative and power of narrative. i saw more than anything here a guy, people wanted to write a story about barack obama in november and december. and he has moved with great alacrity and force to try to say i may not be the only author of my story, but i am still the author of my story and i'm going to try to write this thing in a way i want to see it ridden and i'm not going to become irrelevant or completely controlled by republicans in congress or by the larger forces around me. i'm still here to play. >> rose: all right. let me just all of you this. i mean how does this set

so with those economies, not. the middle eastern economies, russia kazakhstan and others. >> there's one trick ponies classic mineral resource boom bust economies when the prices do end bust and revolution we don't have the track to particularly favor u.s. interest or western interest anymore. so i think that's a worry. but you're right, tyler. that's another thing too about this. i think the worry about the job loss in the u.s. drilling sector and it's overblown as well. the job numbers i have are only several hundred thousand good paying jobs don't get me wrong but not enough to take us down there. there's too many service jobs, jobs that have been part of this recovery that have gotten us to where we are with the gdp numbers. it's going to hurt with a mark but not taking us down. >> we'll have you back later in the program with acquisition in the sector. thank you very much. >>> still ahead from deep in the heart of texas, all the way up to north dakota some of the cities in the heart of america's energy boom are f

that's what they think about the british economy and about the american economy. obviously it's helping in dover where it's down to 28%. but frankly we shouldn't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job in our country is able to get a job in our country and until our unemployment rate is the best in the g-7 that is what i would decide what we want. >> ok, mr. speaker, the prime minister's crisis in national health service has its roots in general practice. the change this government made to g.p. pensions. in my area 40% -- future recruit them. how can we expect ha this country will be able to increase the g.p.'s. >> he's rinning up a national tennis service. >> there are thousands more g.p.'s today than when imbecame a prime minister. there are 25 more g.b.'s than in 2010. but i agree with them that we need farther so they work really well. we've seen four million onpeople having access of the seven-day opening of cedric. i want to see it expanded. now this is a step forward. the gets of england helped boost the commission's economy. we could even more. so when

we are living in the obama economy. the results are astonishing. >> today for the first time in six years americans feel good about the economy. that is probably because it is growing fast. >> the president citizens that credit and are the mainstream media trying to give him a boost? >> a most outspoken commentator on how he makes up his mind and his relentless criticism of the president. >> on the column you can correct yourself. on live television you are a wallenda on the high wire. >> a conversation with charles krauthammer and "good morning america" is the number one morning show and it is packed with stories like these. >> the shocking video taped someone did not want to you see. >> a colorado man is charged with killing his wife and pushing her off the cliff. >> they move away from serious news. this is media buzz and i am howard kurtz. >>> mike huckabee has been openly organizing for a second run for president and took the plunge announcing that he is quitting fox news. >> a much as i have loved doing the show i

that is what they think about the british economy and about the american economy. it's helping in the over, where the claimant count is down by 28% since election but, frankly, we shouldn't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job in the country is able to get a job in our country and until our unemployment rate is the best in the g7. that is what i would define as achieving what we want , which is full employment in our country. >> thank you, mr. speaker. the prime minister's crisis and the national health service has its roots in general practice. the changes this government made to gp pension saw a huge number of gps retire early. in chesterfield, 40% of places on future recruitment of gps were left vacant. how do we expect that they can recruit the gps we need when so few of them have confidence in the national health service? >> there are 1000 more gps working in nhs today than when i became prime minister. in his own area that are 25 more gps than in 2010. but i agree with him that we need further changes to make sure our gps our -- our family doctor servic

this will have a real effect on the global economy. it will be interesting to see what his take is. >> the best-performing hedge fund of the last year. phenomenal performance. >> it is pretty volatile. the story >> green light for draghi. the european court of justice says the lmt bond buying program is in principle in line with the eu treaty. this clearing the way for qe. >> dr. copper gets a cold. the commodity follows oil. >> and, activism in europe area does it work weston mark we are going to ask bill ackman. good morning, everybody. you are watching "the pulse."

we will see an improvement in the economy. host: as far as those who are still not part of the labor force, is it a perception force? or are the jobs, people are just not actively searching? guest: i think that today, there are not jobs. there is a realistic view that those workers have that their are not jobs today. they are discouraged and haven't been looking in the last month. they think that, okay, if they see more jobs out there, if they hear about more jobs, if we just are picking up, we will start to see them coming back. host: what are some of the issues or strategies? guest: sure. now, i know we are not talking healthcare, but i'm a healthcare economist. and i think that you can find things in that sector that are indicative all through. we have some serious regulatory constraints. restraints to prevent in the stratus, as i would like to say, the steve jobs type of people in creating new products and new jobs. i recently wrote a study that suggests, in ways, that they could unleash those innovators. for the millennial

both would be beneficial to the world's economy including the japanese economy. we welcome this action. >> japan may need to look at new options for stimulus. earlier this week, the bank of japan cut inflation forecast to 1%. in greece, polls show the anti-austerity party has a six-point lead heading into sunday's election. syriza has promised to abandon the tax hikes. the plan has restored the country's economy -- concerned that syriza might win. that time of the year when we find out how much money ceos made. tim cook took in more than double his compensation and received $9.2 million when apple shares set a record. jamie dimon got his first cash bonus since 2011. up a little more than $7 million. lloyd blank fine -- lloyd blank fein with $20 million. speaking about ceos, mcdonald's out with their earnings. they will be slowing down the opening of some of their restaurants. challenging has been a year for mcdonald's. scarlet fu has more on the numbers. >> revenue disappointing investors. earnings per share missing the consensus of $1.13. mcdonald's had already i

pull the u.s. economy back? >> and that is one of the great questions for 2015. china, for example, flowing down a lot. right? and the united states this year could actually be growing faster than china depending how the data work out. i don't think the united states is big enough anymore to do what it did in the '70s and '60s because we're such a large percentage of the world but it's bornt for the united states i think, to do very well. i think europe will do better as the european central bank prints a lot of money to ease quantitative. and growth will be a challenge but the united states go back to 20 years ago when the united states was a strong engine and rest of the world trying to catch up. it's been a while. >> prioritize where you would put money to put to work right now. u.s. sounds like it would be on the top and sounds like you'd follow with europe. >> exactly right. so we like the united states the fundamentals are good but our market has gotten expensive. we're stock picking. multiasset. but a valu

the u.s. economy has a lot of problems. an household income adjusted for inflation is lower now than it was in the year 2000. it is really unusual for the u.s. to go through a period of 15 years in actually going backward in terms of the purchasing power of the american household. it is a familiar story but a true story, it is rising to the top. i try to end on a positive note that says the u.s. is a creative company that learns from its mistakes, and the hope is innovation can oh care that will bring prosperity -- cano kerr that will bring prosperity -- can occur that will bring prosperity. >> it will take a while. >> that is the hope, longer than we hoped, longer than we expected but eventually it said that should start accruing to the general public. >> the gdp numbers are out. peter, i do not know about the eagle. 2.6% is the first read. >> a little bit below expectations of 3%. scott -- >> scarlet fu has some of these number is. >> the first gross best the first brush is -- the first brush is 2.6%, lower than what analy

we need to look at the economy. e idea behind exiting the euro is that you can devalue and export your way out of the crisis. based on conventional measures of trade, greece will have a benefit and there will be disadvantage. a lot of the structural reforms needed will help. >> a lot of people will say that the chances of greece leaving are slim. >> i agree. >> we talk about it theoretically. we have the unlimited bond buying plan and enshrine the notion that the project is your reversible. it opens pandora's box. >> it sets a precedent. having said that, i go back to my previous point that it strengthens the argument that the currency is reversible for those who remained. >> we have to leave it there. looking for 115 by the end of the year for the euro. what will it look like for the u.k.? we will have a general election. will we have a rate hike? goldman sachs think so. and >> welcome back. the market moves to talk about. the treasuries and yields dropping. you remember october 1 five. we are back down there again.

and again, when we look at the u.s. economypercentage activity resulting from the pickup in the search for oil, that is going to be a challenge with this oil price decline. so it's not just a straight gain even for the u.s. >> that's a great point because energy capex has contributed a significant amount to the u.s. economy. if oil prices continue to decline, that will show us if capex is lower going into the new year. >> yes, and the unemployment gain has come through in states like texas or alaska. if you strip those out, you have not seen an increase in u.s. employment from the 2008 peak. so there are negatives to this as well as positives. >> i just want to touch on one asset class in particular that sometimes you have positions in we have the prospect of significant more money printing from various countries. why was the dollar price not stronger in 2014 than it was? >> again, we suspect it's something that the market has potentially gotten wrong. and so the pickup in real yields and expectations for rate rises and normali

so i was not a wild bull on the economy on earnings. earnings would be a nice single digit drive of 6% or 70% -- 7%. that's what looks like what will happen. the unusual that i made was for expansion this year. >> tell us what that means. paying more for the same dollar of earnings. >> exactly. the price ratio of the s&p. >> why would you pay more for the same thing? >> there's a few reasons. one of which, you certainly had cash on the sidelines that was steadily creeping and. after the trauma of 2008 and 2009, and a relapse in 2011 with crazy volatility it takes a while for stability to come back not just into the economy, but the market overall. so we started the year with sort of an average multiple right on top of 30 or 40-year averages. >> we are talking about 15, 16? >> now we're up to 17. >> anything wrong with that? >> people like to say that's a little too much but you have to look at the context of interest rates, what's happening overall. you can make strong arguments for 21 times earnings, and we have seen that in the early

the question is, how is the economy doing? e other bit of the equation, the news from the imf revising down next year's growth forecast to 6.5%. >> whenever growth is being checked down a few notches, the imf is the last one to check in on this. i don't think anyone should be changing a personal productions based on what the imac is doing. -- imf is doing. >> does the chinese government have too much writing politically on sustaining growth? >> one of the interesting things for china and the relationship between growth is the relationship between growth and employment has changed. in the past, this idea that china really needed 8% growth. if it did not have it, the rabin as unemployment. if there was mass in employment, that would have huge political instability risks. i think that calculation has changed. the services sector, which is much more labor-intensive, is putting a bigger part in the economy. that means we can have less growth without having height and implement. -- high and implement. the economy has slowed considera

the kind of economy we have and the kind of economy that gives us achievement of a full employment objective is not an economy that a central banker can leave with zero rates, let alone zero rates forever. and they'll look at inflation as at transitory low, and a couple of years from now inflation will be higher. it isn't going to be zero rate. the question is when do we have a small rate hike and what will the path be because the economy is going to get very hot. tell me what you could tell janet yellin right now about when to raise rates, especially in the scenario that we just laid out. declining headline inflation assuming even the unemployment rate if it drops, there's no wage inflation. what do you tell janet, alan? >> zero rates and negative real rates, small positive real rates. doesn't make any sense when you have an xhst economy has really moving very strongly with good momentum, and so the central bank has to lean against that by raising short-term rates. that's the history of monetary policy. always leaning against a strong economy because inflation will show up later. they don't

and cheap gas, the u.s. economying to grow again this is another downer that makes you think this could be a rough year. really potentially historic mistake. we talk about a lot of policies but the internet, basically clinton and bush policy success allowing it to grow and thrive and the president wants to apply to it the monopoly telephone rules from the communications act of 1934. if that sounds too anty kuwaited. they were written for the acts in 181887, it's setting prices and bureaucrats running products -- >> this is supposed to be a decision by the federal communications commission, which supposedly is an independent agency. >> that's what we've been told. the president pressuring them very strongly and i'm worried -- >> publicly. >> and i'm worried they may cave and it's going to be up to the republican congress to cut off funding to the fcc to look for a legislative solution if they go this disastrous step. it's very hard to stop them if they decide to go with it. you cut off funding but that's -- >> i thin

economy. but after 2016 tax rivers remain about the same relative to the size of economy for the rest of the decade. so we're tax revenues that move up quickly and 2016 but then are about flat expressed as a share of gdp. meanwhile, on the outlay side there are these crosscurrents. retirement of of the baby boomers is exerting this tremendous upward pressure on spending for social security and medicare and medicaid throughout the decade. there will be more than one-third more people receiving medicaid, sorry, medicare and social security benefits at the end of the decade that are receiving today. that goes on all the time and thatthe pushes of total spending by the federal government. but at the same time there are the other thing pushing spending up of course is rising interest payments. we think interest rates will move up a fair bit over the next few years but the government interest costs responsible to that because the government doesn't roll over all of its debt in any one year. so the average interest rates on treasury debt response gradually to market interest rates. we actually report in t

one thing is for sure, the u.s. economy is the engine that is pulling the economy along.t is here. why is it here? we have a very deep and liquid capital market. it is actually amazing. throwing their money into equities. now we are only up barely a point. treasury rates are down after quantitative easing was ended. we also have to consider the strength of the dollar. we only ask for it 13% of what we make. they will be policies from washington that influence oil and gas development. >> everyone was shaking their head while you were talking. >> good for the economy. we do need growth and policies. they will not get new regulations. i think the gop led congress can see some good reforms and other areas. i hate this argument. somehow devaluing the argument. that is a terrible policy. >> hold on a second. i do not see how a dollar hurts savers. it does raise the price of exports. if you went to school the department of economics, it is a good thing. it is not a matter of having a strong or weak dollar. eight dollar to strong against the yen and the euro disadvantages us. >>

today we will hear from three experts about the economy. but as a technical matter and for the time being we are not going to be calling this a hearing. as discussed the minorty staff the house hasn't elected committees and they cannot organize until e -- voted by the house. we will run the briefing under the rules of past congresss where members are recognized according to the gibons rule. it is unique to the ways and means committee. the rule provides that members present in the time of the gavling in will be recognized by senority and after the gavel you will be recognized in order. we will ask for the transcript from this informal briefing to be included in the next hearing so it is in effective a hearing. the fact mr. levin worked with us out of the gate to make sure we could meet and talk about the economy is the example of the accom accom accom accomdy it takes to make the committee run well. i thank the ranking member for that. let me start with the panel. we have the president of the american action forum and the former director of

the chinese economy is now the second largest in the world. with a larger base figure of growth even at 7%, world produce an annual increase of more than $800 billion u.s. dollars at current price. which is larger than a 10% growth five years ago. with economy performing within the reasonable range, the strained supply/demand relationship will be eased. the pressure on resources and the environment will be lowered and the more time and energy could be devoted to adjusting and upgrading the economic structure thereby unleashing greater dynamism for the economy. thus the economy will enter a more advanced stage of development with more sophisticated division of labor and a more optimized structure. if i could compare the china's economy to a running train what i want to emphasize is that this train will not lose speed or momentum. on the contrary it will only be powered by stronger dynamo and run with greater steadiness and bring with it new growth and new opportunities. in 2014, we followed exactly the aforementioned approach. in the face of do

consumer and the u.s. economy. the big driver for today's selloff is retail sales despite deep discounts, lower gas prices and a robust labor market. combined with more volatility and oil prices and a lower forecast for global economic growth sent stocks on another wild ride. the dow cut an early 350 point loss in half ending the session down 186 points. the nasdaq lower by 22 and the s&p was down 11 points. in the bond market the yield on 30 year treasuries hit record lows while the yield on the benchmark ten year note hit the lowest level in nearly two years. crude bounced between losses and gains spiking higher into the close, up 5.5% to $48.48 a barrel, its biggest one day percent gain since june of 2012. with gas prices down and retail sales falling, what is the state of the u.s. consumer right now? steve liesman takes a look. >> reporter: plunging oil prices raised a few economic puzzles. first, since the u.s. is now a huge oil producers, wouldn't it be a drag on the economy or a benefit? second, and this is k

does the economy hold get larger or smaller? so a couple of bills and is congress will probably merit this consideration. i do not think it is going to change most of the work of the congress at all. the second thing i would say is this is not a new thing or particularly exotic thing. every president's budget is dynamically scored. so, we have been doing it -- the joint committee has done it. the third thing i will say it is no more uncertain or no more difficult, than conventional's going. i had to score terrorism risk insurance. the consequences of an unknown attack at an unknown time with an unknown weapon. that is hard. so there will be difficulties and challenges. i don't think any of that should stop the members of the committee from knowing which is better for growth from those of which are not. >> well, i agree that we should continue -- consider the full applications, but dynamics going is very come to get it. some of these models have strange features, including unemployment, for example. assuming it in the modern conte

it's 20% of the economy. ink that's important. >> i've got to say, peter, i was surprised, and we were talking a little bit about it at the top of the broadcast offline, that the market has reacted as well as it has and has been up very powerfully despite what went on in paris yesterday and continues to go on there. if that incident had taken place in new york city or washington or boston, i cannot help but believe that the u.s. stocks certainly would be down a lot. >> i mean, you know, if you're -- any geopolitical issue is going to have some ramifications on the u.s. market. i've got to agree with you, tyler. i think that we probably should have been or seen the market move a little bit differently. and you know, who's to say why? i don't understand why we didn't. >> i don't get it. >> i don't get it. but i think maybe the, you know, the technicals in this market were a lot stronger than the fear of, you know, some sort of continued terrorist action. i'm not really sure. i mean, that's a tough question to an

really, if you want to be optimistic about the economy, cheap gas, the u.s. omy is starting to grow again. this is another downer that makes you think this could be a rough year. it really, potentially, is a historic mistake. we talk a lot about the policies, but the internet basically a clinton and bush policy success allowing it to grow and thrive. and the president wants to apply to it the monopoly telephone rules from the communications act of 1934. if that sounds too antiquated, that i were originally written for monopoly railroads in 1887. 1887 regulation for the internet. so it's setting prices it's bureaucrats running -- >> this is supposedly an end ben dent agency. >> that's what we have been told. the president pressuring them strongly and i'm worried publicly they may cave and it will be up to that republican congress to cutoff funding to the fcc to look for a legislative solution if they go to this disastrous step. >> it's very hard to stop them if they decide to go with it. even you cut off funding but that's -- >> i think the fcc is in a dangerou

maybe something on the economy after the state of the union? no, they want to take up an abortion bill. certainly a lot less popular that this the agenda the president is floating tonight. that doesn't mean many if any of these proposals will become law, but it sounds like president obama has joined the fight and it looks like he's going to enjoy doing this. >> you know congressman, a senior white house adviser told "new york times" today quote, we have proof that president obama's strategy is working, and the republicans now have a chicken little problem. all the doom and gloom they predicted did not come to pass. don't republicans have a credibility problem with all their talk about job killing policies about the president, congressman? >> well my hope is that they will come out tomorrow and repent, because they have clearly -- >> that's the preacher in you, congressman. [ laughter ] >> they can't help themselves. they need to repent because, you know think tried to label the auto industry rescue a giveaway. $80 bill xwron, rescued the automo