of the economy stabilizing. why will this work? the chinese economy has been rebounding and we have to get away from the idea that it will he driven by investment. in the past, china was driven by investment until you saw stimulus. stimulus into the economy it will support consumption. jonathan: what do you think of that argument? >> i think it is an interesting argument. healthy,egree that is but to a large degree you cannot go on investing. my concern is the stimulus we are seeing which is consumer related may have come a bit late . the information we are getting on sure is there has been a massive shock to confidence. china areers of feeling very concerned. add fiscal stimulus on top of consumers who feel nervous about the economy, that a drag on the economy. withave a situation stimulus going in, it seems that it is pushing on a string on both sides. people money or debt. jonathan: is the belief the ppi trend in china, the deceleration will continue. export prices will come down regardless of the trade deal. the second largest

it is not found its way into the real economy. the markets got wobbly, the fed came to the rescue. that is not going to encourage good behavior in the future. i continue to see a lot of speeches where there is very strange and uneasy sense of dovishness just to keep the equity market going. i can't see that's a good thing. jonathan: you are going to stick with me for the rapidfire around. quick answers please. rate cash will stay long high-yield? >> stay long. quicks >> raise cash. jonathan: 10-year, higher or lower? >> higher. >> higher. >> lower. jonathan: fed speak through next week, are we on hold for the rest of this year? yes or no? >> yes. >> yes. >> yes. jonathan: very insightful over the last 30 minutes. this was bloomberg real yield. ♪ alix: $30 billion boost for farmers. china could buy $30 billion more a year in u.s. ag products, an olive branch for corn, soybeans, olive branch for corn, soybeans, and wheat. perfect palladium. prices hit a record on tighter supply and stronger demand. is it time to buy or is the metal

the market has moved ahead of the economy. rket and the belief that the data will come and validate the price action, the chinese stimulus will work. you have doubts about that. >> i think one of the things that is happen recently is we huge spike,ta and a 5% in gdp in terms of new yuan loans. a massive number. there is some serious stimulus going on. but in context, there's always a bump this time of year. it's the new year, and much of what we see in fx markets around the term, and if you compare these specs in the data with something like chinese pmi, what you see is the bigger drop in the pmi around generate, the bigger the spike in the psx. --aw this as a sign of low of a lack of confidence. they're making sure they have enough cash for the chinese new year because the economy does not look strong. historically, extrapolating this for the rest of the year has been a mistake. i think it will be a weaker economy. i want to see more data before i confirm that view, that i would not want to jump to the conclusion i think a lot

jonathan: the market has moved ahead of the economy. the market and the believe that the data will come to validate the price action because the chinese stimulus will work. you have doubts about that. >> one of the things that has happened recently is we saw a huge spike in about 5% of gdp in terms of new yuan loans in a single month. that is a massive number. in a historical context, what we see always around this time of year is a lunar new year, and there is not much access. much of a we see in the fx market is you have the need to pre-fund. if you compare this with something like the chinese pmi, the bigger the drop in pmi around cheney right, the bigger the spike. this is a sign of lack of confidence. you are seeing people over funding, making sure the corporates have enough cash through the chinese new year. historically that has been a mistake. i see that is actually reflecting possibly reduced confidence and a weaker economy. i want to see more data before i can confirm that view. i don't want to jump to the conclusion that this

the market has moved ahead of the economy. e market and to the believe that the data will validate the price action, because the chinese to millis will work -- the chinese stimulus will work. james: we saw the data and a huge spike in something like 5% of gdp in terms of new loans, just in a single month. that is a massive number and it looks like this is serious stimulus going on. but in a historic view, we have lunar new year, this is where there is no access, so at the fx markets, there is a need to pre-fund. you look at these spikes, compared to the chinese pmi, you see the bigger the drop in the pmi around january, the bigger the spike in this etf's. i think this is a sign of lack of confidence, this is people over funding and making sure that corporate's have enough cash to take them over the chinese new year, because the economy does not look strong. instead of extrapolating this for the rest of the year, this is rejecting possibly reduced confidence and a weaker economy. i want to see more data before i move forward, bu

the uk economy last year grew at its slowest rate since 2012, official figures show. a fall in factory output and car production are being blamed — but the chancellor remains upbeat. the important thing is, the economy has come in ahead of the obr's forecast for 2018. and that's in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. we'll be asking what the prospects are for the year ahead. also this lunchtime... theresa may offersjeremy corbyn more brexit talks in her effort to break the deadlock in parliament. the defence secretary announces plans to modernise the armed forces, to allow britain to redefine its global role after brexit. a stark warning about the fate of the world's most populous species — insects — and the potential effect on our ecosystems. and olivia colman picks up the best actress award at the baftas, with glowing praise for her co—stars. emma and rachel — must keep it together — not just for your performances but for what you did after the cameras stopped rolling... and we've never talked about

or the u.s. economyuld not comment on the administration's rate policy. i will say this, though. if this process leads us to a fairer, more open, lower-tariff environment for trade, that will be good for the global economy and our economy. where it leads to environments that are long lasting, that will lead to a less productive economy in the united states and around the world. david: are you worried at the fed about the enormous amount of debt the federal government has? jay: i am very worried about it. from the fed standpoint, we are really looking at a business cycle kind of length -- that's our frame of reference -- and the long-term fiscal sustainability is not something that plays into the medium term that is relevant for our policy decisions. it's a long-run issue that we definitely need to face, and ultimately will have no choice but to face. david: now, as a result of quantitative easing, the fed bought a lot of securities, and now you're letting them roll off. is that the correct policy as oppo

the structural nature of the chinese economy, expects the chinese economy to slow down. e way you kind of get it to where a -- where you need to be, providing stimulus at various points in the cycle. jonathan: yet, the economy still has not stabilized. doug: let's not kid ourselves. i don't think the price mechanism on credit or interest rates in china works the same as the price mechanism works in other places. if you look on the bloomberg and check out the chinese credit impulse indicator, it's been going down for a long time. i agree with krishna. our team out of hong kong was on this pretty early. they are going to change their stance and we are going to see some policy reaction in typical chinese fashion. i personally think we don't have to worry that that is coming. what we have to worry about is will it work this time? we have gone through a period where chinese credit growth was growing at 25% in order to get 6%, 7%, 8% gdp growth. that is not a good model. i think president xi has realized that, and in many of his statements has come out and said we cannot keep d

. >> we are the hottest economy in the world. we are proud of it. >> this is a number great for the fed. for now, i think they can ride this out and they still will not make another move until the second half of the year. >> are they really data dependent? are they stock market dependent? is inflation ultimately going to become the only thing that pushes them off of this? >> i think people continue to underestimate the strength of the economy. by the way, it is not inflationary. >> their mandate is a full employment price stability. we are not at full employment if we are still creating this and price stability is fine. there is no rush. i think they are making the right call. >> the market completely pricing out any hikes for this year is a position that will be revised. jonathan: joining me around the table in new york city, jim keenan and tony rodriguez, and in london, matt toms. -- in atlanta, matt toms. are we underestimating the strength of the u.s. economy? jim: i don't know about underestimating. the market moves on expec

powell offered an optimistic view on the u.s. economy but said headwinds both foreign and domestic clouded the outlook. powell didn't see a threat from the economy running out of workers. >> if there's more slack in the labor market, it's because people are comingack in. if people weren't coming back in, the unemployment be substantially lower but they are or they're staying in. so labor participation rate is rising and that tells us there is more room to grow. that certainly has implications for monetary policy. >> day two of powell's testimony is tomorrow in front of the that could be a more contentious hearing with several new committee members. investors will get a chance to see just how much support the new house members have for the fed's new policy of patience, or whether they have another polici in . for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> ami number of ecos and business surveys say that the odds of asi rec are rising and that it could happen later this year or next, but a couple of hedge fund managers today said tt

these are two factors that way on the german economy. but basically the german economy. has suffered a severe yet over 2018, narrowly, probably, avoiding a recession, sort of indie second, in the fourth quarter. apart from the chinese slowdown, brexit uncertainty, we have a number of issues. the trade thing. uncertainty in italy is running pretty high. and obviously some home—grown problems in the germany. the car sector suffered a big hit in the third quarter. 0n the rhine, the water level was pretty low, so that affects industry. so a number of factors that added up over this year, which meant for the german economy to slow down in a big fashion. and when we talk, quite frequently on these programmes, about the general slowdown of the global economy, because germany is such a big exporter, it relies so much more in other countries buying its goods, does that leave it, potentially, much more vulnerable to the global economic slowdown than other nations? fully agree. it is more exposed to global growth and trade growth. and both of these have slowed down throughout 2018,

and the better the u.s. economy worse the chinese economy is, the better his playing hand for the negotiations, right? >> that's a classic example of the fact that the americans have the short-term hand. our economy is strong. he had access to jobs numbers. in other words one day later. the chinese have the long-term hand because they're willing to play long term. and that will not give up on this. >> china's economy is heading further south than the new york knicks season right now. number two, they do have massive debt. and number three is the political side. people are not happy there. there have been a lot of jobs lost. they announced 390 companies lost money that made money last year. that ends up mattering. you got to think that maybe that pushes them. but so far all i know is it's getting a lot of chatter. >> whether we have true structure or reforms or not, i don't think the markets are that gullible. the fact is if we eliminate tariffs in the trade war, that will make the markets go up rarlds of a big victo

we are so proud of the economy. ate another major milestone, the economic expansion which began injune the economic expansion which began in june 2009 is the economic expansion which began injune 2009 is on its way to becoming america's longest. an economic miracle is taking place in the united states. but is this economic miracle built to last? while we view current economic conditions as healthy and the outlook as favourable, in the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents few months we have seen some crosscurre nts and conflicting signals. us economy maintained a solid growth throughout most of 2018, but economists expect gdp numbers released on thursday to show the pace slowed down at the end of last year. in many ways, the us economy isjust like america's craft brewing industry, which has tripled in size since the start of the decade. never mind happy, it's been a happy few yea rs. mind happy, it's been a happy few years. this is darragh leader pilsner. this is the beer we are probably best known for. we

earlier this week it became clear that the nigerian economy narrowly missed the expected growth target of two percent for last year the national bureau of statistics put it at one point nine percent and that is unwelcome news for president mahmoud more model hari who came to power in twenty fifteen on a pledge to turn the economy around in this sunday's elections he's facing a stiff challenge from businessman and former vice president who by car economic issues are taking center stage in the election nigeria is struggling with a whole range of them. congested roads and heavy foot full scenes like this are widespread across nigeria the country is home to more than one hundred ninety five million people making it africa's most populous nation the number of inhabitants is expected to double by twenty fifty. this is likely to pose enormous challenges to the country roads power grids and hospitals in many parts of nigeria are knocking or an urgent need of expansion increasingly it's chinese companies that are filling the gaps. between two thousand and five and twenty seventeen china investe

in terms of predictions on how much the economy will shrink, we have heard that before. es worry me is the fact they keep saying to us, the uk government and the bank of england, many companies are not getting ready for a no deal and worried about that. i think the thing that worries me is they think there will be a new way of doing things and there really isn't. we are going from one way to a second way of doing things. it is standard stuff. wto, a lot of businesses have been dealing with them for a long time. there isjust new paperwork, different paperwork that they had to get their heads around. they are the companies that have two trade with europe only and not currently dealing with wto rules. worried about the number of companies not thinking all preparing for a no deal? we are very worried. we know there is 148 hours and businesses trading only with the eu. that means they have to get themselves ready. i am sure a lot of them have because they business people and they had to understand what is going on. we are running training courses and all sorts of things to hel

trump callsresident the u.s. economy the hottest in the world. you the latest from his state of the union address. this is bloomberg. ♪ london, 45 a.m. in minutes away from cash trading. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am nejra cehic. let's get first word news. president trump delivered the state of the union address, calling for bipartisanship on his terms. he announced a second summit with kim jong-un, and said the u.s. economy is the hottest in the world. president trump: an economic miracle is taking place in the united states, and the only thing that can stop it or foolish wars, politics, or ridiculous partisan investigations. if i had not been elected president of the united states, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with north korea. much work remains to be done, but my relationship with kim jong-un is a good one. chairman kim and i will meet on february 27 and 28 in vietnam. and in the official response to trump's address, democratic rising star stacey abrams says the president has left the middle class adrift. t

the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the opr forecast for 2018 and that is in thesions around the world. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. don't bet on the races — as four more cases of equine flu are identified, authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume. a stark warning about the fate of the world's insects — they‘ re under threat — and there's a warning that that will affect all of us

the important thing is that the economy is coming ahead of the opr forecast for 2018 and that is in theontext of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world. theresa may will address mps tomorrow about recent brexit talks — as she says she wants further talks withjeremy corbyn over her deal. don't bet on the races — as four more cases of equine flu are identified, authorities meet to decide whether it's safe for horse—racing to resume. a stark warning about the fate of the world's insects — they‘ re under threat — and there's a warning that that will affect all of us coming up on afternoon live all the sport — 0lly another one of manchester united's class of 92 has gone into management. the new boss of the club that he had supported as a boy. after a wet and very windy entity last week's whether it is more settled as we head through the coming week and with double digit temperatures for many it will feel more springlike. from the russian islands which have declared an emergency — after mass invasion of polar bears hello everyone, this is after

the nigerian economy extremely important to africa. nomy until the oil price tanked significantly a few years ago. what is the most important issue to be tackled when the new president or president buhari continues? whoever wins, it is a massive headache to inherit. all of the oil prices are still tepid. the loan they cannot do everything for nigeria anymore so the economy is not in itself — it is diversifying by government revenues are reliant on oil revenue and i think in 2017 to the first time in probably history, all revenues alone we re probably history, all revenues alone were not enough to pay salaries, governments salary. so that in itself is a huge challenge but not just for nigeria, any economies reliant on the price of oil. at in terms of president buhari after his first term, what are people saying about how he had resided over nigeria because he came in with lots of promises as new presidents do and one was to tackle corruption in that kind of thing. 0ur one was to tackle corruption in that kind of thing. our people saying

certainty of good trade agreements to our economy and to the world economy? mr. powell: uncertainty is the enemy of business. establish want to rules and play by those rules, and make longer-term investments in that kind of thing. but at the same time, we need trade. we don't comment on trade policy at all, but we have been hearing a lot from our contacts around of country this year and all last year about uncertainty, and we do since it is been holding back some decisions and had some minor effect on confidence and maybe activity. overall, certainty around trade and other government policies is very important. >> as we look at our current account, the imbalance of trading with most of the world, does that concern you? if it does, why? mr. powell: the overall current economically by the difference between savings and investment in our country, so it is an identity that works that way. it tends to go up in good times when americans are at work and earning well and buying things the economy is strong, we tend to buy things, and some of those things tend to be

china is the world's second-biggest economy. ened is reforms that go along with the capital increase, one of the important ones is to begin to graduate to bigger countries, to countries with more income, out of the borrowing stage with the world bank and that leaves more resources for developing countries. it is not at all a disengagement from china, but more a shift in the relationship so that more money can be available for the -- for the lower income or developing countries. thed: i believe china is second largest recipient of loans from the world bank, which may surprise some people. india is the first. would you expect that number to go down under your tenure? david m.: i do. that is already embedded in the reforms going on. a shift that was agreed to by the bank and shareholders over the last year. i spearheaded from the treasury side and the u.s. government interaction with the bank. the logic that you needed to reduce lending to the higher income countries as you expand the lending to the lower -- the countries that need

>> i think people continue to underestimate the strength of the economy. the way, it is not inflationary. >> their mandate is a full employment price stability. we are not at full employment if we are still creating this and price stability is fine. there is no rush. they are making the right call. >> the market completely pricing out any hikes for this year is a position that will be revised. jonathan: joining me around the table in new york city, jim keenan and tony rodriguez, and in london, matt toms. -- coming to us from atlanta, matt toms. are we underestimating the strength of the u.s. economy? jim: i don't know about underestimating. i think the markets moved on the fourth quarter of last year on expectations that the fed was going to slow the economy significantly, but the economy has been pretty stable throughout. consumers are really good, businesses are in good shape, and you still have although it is rolling off, a substantial fiscal stimulus last year. jonathan: manufacturing also really coming hot last week. what are your thoughts. >> the ris

crash went beyond the mortgage companies and into the general economy, correct? >> right. >> so, those two things are out there as warnings, have you looked at either of those warnings, either on the merits or to see were they to come true, what would that mean for your projections? >> sure. one thing that we have done, and i think it's worthwhile mentioning, we do have a report from a couple years ago looking at the effect of increased hurricane frequency and intensity. >> on the flood insurance program emergencies benny? >> exactly, and that relevant to the freddie mac. >> although just to be clear this is actually quite different. >> is it? the because it's not an evaluation of the committee impact of sea level rise or offshore storms or whatever. it's an evaluation of what happens to confidence in coastal property values when banks won't give you a mortgage because they don't know the property will be there 30 years from now, you can get insurance because you don't know what the tail end risk is if you are the insurer, which makes it really hard to tell coasta

because the underlying economy is still strong. e is absolutely no evidence of a material change in the direction of the u.s. economy. yes, there are companies worried about offshore and policy, domestically, we're looking healthy. the eurozone story does not apply in the slightest from a structural and cyclical perspective, is far weaker. how do you position yourself in assets than -- then? james: as a bond and fixed income guy, it does make it easier. we are saying there is an asymmetry into how prices are going to react but it is not going to get the fed off the seat quite so quickly. so you have positive economic data, it does not push yields materially higher, where as if we have negative views, we know we're coming to the end. thatthe fed is on cause, means the next move is a cut. is that your assumption, then? they were saying cause for a while and then-you. -- then pause again. james: they have gotten themselves into a proper pickle. there was a lot of signal in january, some were almost incredulous. how on earth do justify

gerry: the u.s. economyost some dynamism in the last 20 years measured by things like new start-ups, new businesses, the growth of new businesses. there's a lot of concentration in industry now meaning several companies, small numbers of companies dominate numbers of sectors in the economy. is there something there that can be done to reinvigorate the economy? >> i think there is. a support in research and technologies. we know many new start-ups come from emerging technologies, and i think a hard look at antitrust policy in the country is very much in order. who owns data, for example, that could be an anti-competitive weapon finish. gerry: would you be in favor of breaking up some of these digital no monopolies? >> i think of it as property rights to data. if an incumbent monopoly or quasi-monopoly that has that position because of the ownership of data, what if individuals own their data? that's a very different way of thinking about the world. gerry: but there could be a role for government to look at so

>> i think it tells us how strong the economy was in 2018, and i think that tailing off, obviously, these january numbers, january's very noisy in general from a seasonal standpoint, on top of the government shutdown it's just hard really for a trend. but broadly, you know, the long-term drivers of employment growth have peaked and are tailing lore, the number one input being profit growth. as we go into 2019, the forecast is from 24% growth last year to around 6%, i think is the current estimate -- maria: in terms of profit. >> in terms of profit growth. and, obviously, profit growth is a key input into the decision of ceos as to whether to hire and expand. maria: yeah. >> so as that profit growth slows, employment growth generally follows. the second factor that's kind of conspiring to depress employment activity going forward is the tightening of credit spreads, you know, the corporate bond market started to tighten up in the fourth quarter of last year. and while it's rallied back alongside the stock market, you know, since december 24th, spreads are still well above where they were a

the u.s. economyy for the u.s., is the labor market and consumption, strong employment figures, strong sales. is, you have enough uncertainties and people start to worry about how long be job is going to last and if people worry that much, business is not going to invest and that we have a deterioration in the economy. the fed has to be worried about that. francine: catherine mann stays with us. up, we speak with the chief investment officer of haman capital. he will be asked about treasuries. this is "bloomberg." ♪ viviana: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm viviana hurtado. apple smartphone shipments to china plummeted 20% in the final quarter of last year. this underscores the scale of makers retreat from the largest mobile market. huawei cemented its number one position after shipments soared more than 23%. toshiba is cutting its full-year profit forecast by at least half. nikkei reporting the updated target will come out when it reports earnings wednesday. the target will be lower from around $5

a sugar high effect on the economy. independent outside analysts that i mentioned predicted last year because of their short term temporary effect of the tax cuts. they all said it would not have a permanent effect on the economy. >> that's because they don't understand the tax cut. the heart and soul of the tax cut. >> which one is it? >> for businesses. >> to encourage them to invest and spend more money and hire more workers. >> so every single outsider analysts -- everyone have a dog in the fight. you have a dog in this fight and you are trying to sell books that the trump's tax cut -- >> okay, stephen. let me ask you this. you are saying all these outside experts that she says and all these really smart people who drew prediction in the economy every year and growth and they're independent and they know what they are talking about they how don't understand how to read -- >> only stephen moore has the secret. >> are you asking me? >> yes. >> i worked on the campaign. i talked to economists all the time who said dona

the highest since twenty fifteen. so what does this mean now for nigeria's economy let's bring in. krishna joins us in lagos adrian is the election outcome good or bad news for nigeria. well of course it depends very much on whom you are talking to if you speak to the governments and their representatives they will tell you of course it is great they can continue another four years with their mission that campaign slogan was the next level and that's what they want to do now push the economy forward as well but if you talk to the opposition but also to business leaders in the commercial capital lagos the picture is quite different many are complaining about governmental interference that they call ineffective and you need to know that president obama ever since he was a military ruler of the country in the eighty's has been a supporter of political interference in the economy and starts for example was the interfering in the exchange rate in the currency exchange rates and it goes down all the way to ban certain imports often with good intentions but not very often with the success

they can now refocus on the underlying real economy and the real economy is not in bad shape. en you look at consumer confidence rebounded. what we are seeing is that soft data is reflecting that the government shutdown has a temporary negative influence and the hard data is still resilient. so now the financial conditions are back to normal. the one-month time, stories from the fed will be even different. i think you will be back to hearing a fed which wants to be losing rates up in the futures. they don't go in march, but the change in the rhetoric and changes in march meeting that the market will price in a hike for the june meeting. marketsl tell you that will change the shape of the curve. that would, wouldn't it? a way to move away from this's were we have found ourselves. i was seeing an interesting colleagues by one of -- call him at one of our colleagues, talking about the subtle messaging i saw. >> stopped brexit! anna: sorry about the noise. he said that when powell was asked about crosscurrents in the economy, he cited financial markets. that seems to underline a pr

this is where china's leaders think the answer to a slowing economy lies. the river that bisects shanghai, the banks. they are the key to what the government hopes can be a soft landing. president xijinping has hopes can be a soft landing. president xi jinping has described china's slowdown as a struggle. so to strive for victory there are a slew of new measures. a series of tax cuts to put more money in pockets. a splurge of infrastructure spending, more than $300 billion this year. and cut to bank reserves. they don't have to keep as much in the safe so they will loan more for spending. but there are limits. when it comes to stimulating the economy the government always goes to infrastructure investment. infrastructure is 20% of gdp. $200 trillion a year. it is not easy to move the needle when the base is so large. infrastructure spending, new ra i lwa ys large. infrastructure spending, new railways and bridges, isn't what this man is hoping for. but the banks won't be much help either. because even in a stimulus, it isn't private firms, tech start—ups li

so the state of the economy is strong. senator thune: what's really interesting about what you're hearing coming out of the democrats right now, they seem to want to reverse all that progress because they're now talking, again, about government-run health care, so-called medicare for all, which has a price tag of $32 trillion. and even if you doubled all the tax revenue that comes in today on the individual side and the corporate side, you wouldn't have enough revenue to fund this massive new proposal. they come out with a new green new deal which would raise the average family's energy cost by up to $3,000 every single year. 70% top marginal tax rate which we haven't seen since 1965. the democrat agenda is a leftist agenda that would reverse the gains we have made to get people back to work, to get wages back up and get growth in the economy. republicans will stay focuseds on that goal and we look forward to working with the president on an agenda that will further advance the opportunity the american people and american w

the state of the u.s. economy is a key consideration of the feds monetary policy decision. the u.s. economy remains strong with robust growth and low unemployment. despite everyone telling us prior to taxi for that annual growth would be stuck below 2% as far as the eye could see, the economy expanded as we predicted at 10 annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of last year, following growth of 4.2% and 2.2% in the second and first quarters of 2018 respectively, according to the bureau of economic analysis. this strong growth which is on track to continue to exceed previous expectations will now provide our policymakers with much greater flexibility to address other physical challenge than if we were continuing to struggle with insufficient growth. according to the bureau of labor statistics, the unemployment rate has remained low and steady around 4% while the u.s. economy added 200 and 23 jobs per month on average in 2018 as well as 304,000 jobs in the first month of this year. apel continue to enter the labor force with the labor participation rate increasing to 63 per site