the u.s. economy and globally as well. think it's important to be at the table when that policy is being developed. >> all those floating sneakers in the background and not one for wilfred. that was ceo of nike, mark parker, during my conversation with him yesterday and about the bashing that trade is getting right now on the campaign trail on both sides of the aisle from hillary clinton, who has come out against tpp, the transpacific trade partnership. they're all getting in on it. that brings me to my must read of the morning. i went to "the washington post." david ignatius wrote, trump's and sanders' dangerous revolt against free trade. he cites a study here that says between 2017 and 2026, when tpp would have its major impact, the costs to displaced workers would be 6% of the benefits for the economy or an 18 to 1 benefit to cost ratio. setting facts straight here about the economic benefit pro-free trade. you can debate it. there are certainly costs, but for such a businessman, ignatius says, trump seems out of touch

i think the china economy generates 40-50% of global growth. that is a massive economy. hat economy caves in in terms of growth, the world will feel the pressure. it is very legitimate for janet to focus on global risk. it is legitimate for a to talk about china. that is the one thing -- another thing, you have to manage the weaker dollar because when you think about the world economy, still very much dominated by the u.s. dollar. the dollar is very much a reserve currency for every country. if you start to allow the dollar to keep going up, that is a de facto monetary tightening around the world. if you measure everything in the u.s. dollar terms for the last two years, anything that has not been expressed in the dollars are all going down. that is why janet yellen is very right that they have to talk down the dollar. alix: why is yellen more important now than draghi? chen: the key thing is that the united states is the economy that has got growth and the u.s. dollar is still very much dominated currency that is being widely used around the world. i think the fed -- if

united states is going to remain one of the powerful drivers of the global economy. er and over again over the last three years, the world cannot count on the united states to be the sole driver of the global economy. where there are burgeoning populations around the world, economies that are growing at a faster rate because of their place in the development cycle. we want to be part of that. we want to be selling goods and services there. we want them to be also abiding by the standards that we think make the world a better place. that has the advantage of making more competitive. >> rose: when i was in china over the weekend one thing you constantly heard is this idea of china's economic growth and the five year plan that it is not a zero sum game for the united states, that the united states ought to be invested in5% chinas growth. as an economic powerhouse. >> we have set that publicly and privately that it's in china's interest for the united states to do well and it's in the united states interest for china to do well. one of the things about a country kind of t

mark,he universal theme, has been concern about the global economy. this could be the year where the global economy became the local economy are many central banks. if you trace it back to a week from yesterday, where we had the ecb then on monday night we had the bank of japan holding. then we had the fed dialing back on hawkishness, swiss national bank talking about the global environment, norway concerned about the global environment. south africa raised but they are in a slightly different situation. mark: thanks a lot, good to see you. caroline, i gather we have some breaking news out of the eu. caroline: we do. turkey, ryan chilcote is in brussels with more. what do we know? what is going to be offered to stem some of the migrant concerns? it would appear that the eu and turkey have finally reached a deal. it took them 10 days, two summits, and hours and hours of negotiations that we understand from two different sources the eu and turkey have clinched a deal that would share the burden of refugees and my joints -- migrants between turkey and the

have a listen. >> we understand that we're in the global economy. obal financial system, so what happens in brazil or china, what happens in southeast asia or south america has major impact on the u.s. economy in terms of employment and inflation goals. we have to take all of that into account. we have to understand how it impacts the u.s. economy. we have to be cognizant of the fact when the fed acts, it affects the global economy. understand those feedback loops and all the ramifications. >> and that was john williams talking about the fed's increasing focus on international development. something we saw in the fed statement during the fed meeting two weeks ago. something we did thought hear with the fed regional presidents coming out, some of them talking about april being a possibility sooner rather than later which spent the dollar stronger. i would just say pay attention to the core of the fed. williams echoes more the janet yellen views of the fed. she'll be speaking on tuesday at the economic club in new york. bill dudley, the new york presid

let's have a look at what's really going on in the global economy. e got a consumption led recovery. that's a great thing. the rest of the global economy is oyster and concerned about the long-term commodities fight to we've got. concerns about the dollar. when the dollar doesn't strengthen, they start to pick up again. if the dollar strengthens because we start to see interest-rate hikes, these economies will slow down again. slowthe u.s. economy will down again. we are caught in this balance. caroline: we saw dated yesterday that was not so optimistic on the spending side in the united states. do you think consumption will drive the u.s. economy forward? >> if you look at one single piece of data and it's out of kilter with everything else, you start to think what's happening. look at the general picture and we do seem to be getting a recovery in the states. the fedld justify coming in and doing something. they are not going to say that until we get the actual meeting and it won't be going on. the omens are looking get her. when they look strong eno

growth in the global economy. aside the united states. in the form of an increase in spreads. changes in financial conditions, the path of the global economy. in what path is appropriate to achieve our object is. that is what you see. now, i guess you ask me also what would we need to see to continue raising rates. i think that it is worth pointing out here that the committee, most participants, do continue to envision the economic developments unfolding as they expect. further increasing with the federal funds rate. most participants anticipate that. the pace will be gradual. as i emphasized, most empirical work, attempting to assess what the equal librium level of the fed fund rate is. it level neither expansionary or extraction area. those assessments are quite low at this time. there is accommodation in the stance of policy. we do expect, over time, neutral rates moving up. you know, we are not positive what the pace of change will be over time. given that the economy is now close to our maximum employment object if, you know, hopefully inflation is moving up. as you mentio

will remain one of the powerful drivers of the global economy. aid over and over again, the world cannot count on the united states to be the sole driver of the global economy. we need burgeoning populations, developing economies that are growing at a faster rate because of their place in the development cycle. a new middle class. we want to be part of that. we want to be selling goods and services there. we want them to be abiding by the standards that we think makes the world a better place. charlie: when i was in china over the weekend, you constantly heard this idea of china's economic growth and the five-year plan that it is not a zero sum game for the united states. that the united states ought to be invested in china's growth as an economic powerhouse. jack: we have said publicly and privately that it is in china's interest for the u.s. to do well and it is in the u.s.'s interest for china to do well. as one of the largest economies in the world, is responsibilities going along with that. embracing standards is actually an important thing.

europe could get a lift at the global economy starts to turn around. l secretaries has global growth may be better-than-expected. >> we are forecasting 3% global growth. the only problem is there are some indicators like the rate of growth of trade, which is 2%. only five times in the last 50 years has the rate of growth of trade been below the rate of growth of the world economy. every time that happened, we had a severe slowdown or recession. we are not forecasting a recession. alix: the bank of england is issuing a warning about the upcoming eu referendum. the boe financial policy midi says the boat is the best the -- policybiggest -- committee says the vote is the biggest threat. commodities may slump. oil and copper are at risk for very steep declines because recent gains are not grounded in improved fundamentals. commodities are headed for a quarterly advance after losing 14% in the third quarter. >> time now for our bloomberg quick take. becameek, barack obama the first u.s. president to visit argentina in more than a decade. spoke with obama in

they've decided that the global economy has a bigger effect. ey definitely were more dovish than most expectations of most of the fed observers i speak to, including my own expectations. >> steve, thank you very much for setting up our next conversation. we'll see you at the top of the hour. when we come back, more fed follow through. what does it mean for your money? the global markets are reacting to this shift in thinking, as steve said, from janet yellen. we're going to talk to an economist and global strategist about what to do about that when we come right back. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's show you what the futures are doing. they've just turned lower after a nice early morning rally. dow futures were up more than 70 points. now they're pretty much unchanged going into the open. s&p futures down three. nasdaq futures down 14. we'll continue to keep an eye on that after a rally yesterday following the federal reserve's statement, decision on no policy change and outlook from janet yellen. joining us to discuss all that i

the u.s. economy and the global economy.it makes me think what is really important is what we get in the next corporate earnings cycle and what we hear from companies about the outlook and whether they are spending and whether they are hiring. chad: so the composition is going to go a little like this when it comes to the earnings call -- top economic activity within the emerging markets. $. we're starting to see dollar weakness. what we are forecasting now is that the headwinds over the last 12 months actually is starting to abate. you can see growth, economic earnings, earnings within the s&p come of 3% to 4% from this time on for the next four quarters out. cap and revenue growth. which is a little bit better than what everyone is expecting. you do, portfolio manager, when you hear what janet yellen had to say? now we know they will take it easy, or so it seems, the next data point tells us differently. what do you do as a portfolio manager to adjust where you are investing? chad: if you're global and tactical emerging ma

we've obviously had a subdued outlook for the global economy for some time. but we tend to get a little nervous when everything becomes very, very consensus. i think given the oil price of the moment, i could paint a number of reasons as so why oil pricesing fall a lot further. i could also suggest why we might get supply cutbacks and get the oil price to rise. so in this environment, we thought, well, let's take a look at what the implications would be for all of these other central banks, and the bottom line is that some of them obviously help the growth, the inflation outlook in different regions. but then they would have more negative implications for elsewhere. >> so we're not sure, then, whether or not the global economy is going to slow down markedly and whether that's going to have a knock on impact on the price of oil. is that kind of where we're supposed to, you know -- what we're supposed to take away from it at this stage? >> in terms of where the oil price goes from here, most oil analysts will tell you we should see some cut back in non-opec supp

haveys oil prices high-cost producers cutting back on production and what it looks like for the global economy. carson indoors is donald trump in the lead up to tuesday. wins in florida and [indiscernible] make his nomination inevitable. first, a look at the trading day. julie: looks like investors are taking a step back to take a look at the ecb action. there was so much confusion in that full arsenal of tools that the ecb throughout the economic slowdown in the eu, so that is rebounding after falling. 24has been a confusing hours. if you look at the sectors on the move on bloomberg, we have and technology and financials, the two largest for the s&p 500 also a big part of the game state. to thelping contribute game, bouncing back with microsoft, apple and amazon. they were doing relatively poorly yesterday. stocks have been relatively high of the s&pvolatility 500. take a look at the bloomberg. nasdaq a ratio of the 100 volatility versus the s&p 500 or the fake. eight is at the highest in six months time. we are seeing them take the brunt of any tension or inciting that investors have had abo

the u.s. economy, but because given the admission of the trend in the global economy, i think the world can still comment -- tolerate a high fed fund rate. room todaynt in the was more of an acknowledgment of that sort of you over the next several years, that the federal reserve will likely raise rates this year, but to go to percent, 3%, which is in the baseline, is unlikely. betty: one of the biggest shifts that i saw was around oil, talking about how it used to be transitory and it is now suddenly potentially a downside from what she said. let's listen. janet yellen: in the event that oil prices were to fall again, it could have adverse spillover effects to the economy. if such downside risks were to materialize, they would likely slow u.s. economic activity to some extent. how much does that shift in language director changer thinking? changes thehink it outlook materially. it's ironic, though. in the past four years the federal reserve has been far from the core inflation target. we are the closest we have been since the global finance -- mobile financial crisis. i read the comments today an

focus on central bank policies because the monetary framework is a key part of what drives the global economy. what are governments going to do? i think we have to see global fiscal expansion to get us out of this rutt. we are seeing some signs of that in the global economy. francine: coming from where? spending a lot more money. i worry they will impose more significant capital controls and devalue the renminbi, perhaps in the middle of the year, and then export deflation which will pull the rug from underneath the central-bank efforts we have seen today. francine: how much pressure does draghi's moves put on other central banks around the world? james: i think remarkably little. in so far in what he is dealing with is an entrenched problem within the euro land economy. euro land is dysfunctional. it does not have a coherent process to making pan european decisions. he recognize that hard real p olitik. it is going to irritate the japanese. i do not believe the americans are contemplating quantitative easing. francine: do you suggest people buy stocks? or are you concerned about brexit? jame

the u.s. economy versus the global economy. others would argue, however, that it is one economy, globally. >> well, i think that the fed gets its get out of jail card here by basically saying, look, if the u.s. market goes into turmoil, if we raise rates, if the dollar strengthens that will cascade into the emerging markets and to other countries which then will create more. stress in the united states. so at the end of the day, we really are thinking about the u.s. economy. >> there are critics who said that the fed should have raised in september and they cited the global situation, global turmoil at that time. then, again, here in march. how many times do you -- do you think they're going to start playing catchup or did they basically telegraph that they're going to go at a very slow pace, maybe two hikes this year, june and december? >> i think they're going to go very scllow. i don't think they're going to play catchup. the expectation, they will do four rate increases in 2017 will not be met. they will go slower than that.

ultimately iran's choice pursue an illicit nuclear program or rejoin the global economy. in 2012 we opened a narrow window to see the diplomatic solution was possible. that possible. back when bill prince and deputy secretary of state and i served as white house chief of that, we broke up a small group. the process which was set which was about idea raining people guide to which froze nuclear can be the diplomatic efforts by secretary kerry as well as former undersecretary wendy sherman with the support of the department of state treasury and energy in our international partners we should try to comprehensive engagement to cut off pathways of nuclear weapons and the threat of further destabilization. the goal of sanctions is to pressure bad actors to change their policy. they must be prepared to guide relief. if the follow-through we follow-through we undermine her credibility and damage our ability to sanctions should drive policy change. the experience with iran demonstrate that difficult this can be, essential as it is very to achieve its goal of lifting sanctions, iran

what does this tell us about china and the global economy? est: it has been pretty volatile, particularly during the chinese new year. rishaad: this is every year. guest: yes, every year. if you look in the fourth quarter, the global economy does not perform very well. u.s. economy grows only 1%. why we see january data as pretty disappointing. if you look at recent policy measures, china has been emphasizing more on the domestic front, rather than relying on external demand. as you have a rebalancing taking place, it doesn't really reflect what's going on on the import side anyway, whether it will be more service-oriented. guest: if you look at the impulse side, obviously it is affecting -- domestic demand is pretty weak. that is in the background of the rebalancing of industries. external demand is more or less on the soft side. the global trade never goes back to the level we saw before the crisis. rishaad: tell me something. where do we go with monetary policy? told it actually even work get people out there, spending more money and becomi

the new digital economy is >> get ready because the future is coming. the new digital economy is taking over and it's undoing our global industrial economy in the process. advances in information technology data crunching, automation and robotics as well as advances in science are changing human society beyond recognition. the possibilities for increasing our prosperity are huge but so are the pitfalls. for those whom the revolution leaves behind. i'm back with alex ross, he's the technology futurist. author of a book just out. our iphones build by foxconn in china. foxconn is going to have, they have more than almost half a million robots now and they are going to have a million i guess in the next couple of years ago. they have a million workers and they have a million robots. this is fascinating. one of the cheapest labor cost places in the world is replacing its low-level labor with robots. what are the implications of all of us including china? >> so if you think about robots and humans they have die die d diametrically opposed , robots are the exat opposite. they expensive to buy a big robot, once you got them, c

the official numbers as a baseline. -- you know, it is a manufacturing-heavy economy and we are in the middle of a global trade war. have been in the last six seven years. as a result, manufacturing suffers. given the makeup of the chinese economy, it's perfectly reasonable that you expect china to slow down. rishaad: we know the problems there, but it keeps coming back and fighting it. the authorities are also acutely aware what is going on. i think people get concerned that they are not doing anything about it. >> i'm not sure that you can do a lot about it. all this talk about an intentional pivot away from investment and heavy industry towards consumption and services , you know, i think it's a bit disingenuous, let's say. i think this is a dynamic that has been forced upon china. it is not something that they seek to do. it is something that is done to them. and given the chinese culture and psyche, it is always better to say that it is intentional. so this is a problem that the economy has to slow. it is at a size where it would slow naturally anyway. unfortunately, investors will pick up the headline and sell

university professor noted that japan should take caution with tax hikes, given uncertainty in the global economyhe sd the g-nations d international community should work together to support the global economy. >> this is a particularly difficult time, 2015 was a weak year. i think 2016 is going to be an even weaker year. >> abe's planning to hear from harvard university professor dale jorgenson and paul krugman in the upcoming discussions. >>> checking the markets, tokyo share prices fell for the second day in a row. >> trading volume was low here in tokyo. many investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the federal reserve policy decision. let's look at the closing levels for this wednesday, march 16th. nikkei average lost.8% to settle below 17,000. the topix closed about the same margin. let's look at the movers and shakers. banking shares are lower after bank of japan governor told lawmakers that in theory there's room to cut deposit rates even more. sharp continues to see declines down nearly 12%. some media outlets report its take over by hon hai could be delayed. apple suppliers gained fol

that she says the global economy -- he says the global economy looks like it is attracting japanese stylelation. we've had steven major on. i am beginning to understand why now. >> he always gives us the strong impression of optimism. guy: you call it realism. why the take this slightly different take? >> we got down there but it is bad. when you look at what is happened to growth and inflation , not just in the u.s. but across the whole western world. the kind of them would surprise has been remarkably smoother than what we have seen in japan. the benefits of hindsight, we all know what happens to japan. it was blindingly obvious. if you look the forecasting community at the time, the consensus is clay said at the time don't worry, go back to normal. inflation will return to normal. it never did. eraou look the error that's -- era and italy and spain. both growth and inflation have come in lower than expected. i think what they are discovering, there can test they can hike much slower. be -- should they be hiking at all? you've got a week china. exports markets, u.s. performing quite poo

growth, growth of the global economy outside the united states. in for some tightening critic conditions in the form of widening spreads. those changes in financial conditions and the path of the global economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants and what path is appropriate to achieve our objectives. so that's what you see now. i guess you asked me also what would we need to see to continue raising rates. i think it is worth pointing out that the committee most participants continue to envision, if economic developments unfold as they increases inurther the federal funds rate will prove appropriate over time, most participants anticipate that. and that the pace will be gradual. as i emphasized, most empirical assess whating to the polar room of the fed funds rate is a level that would be neither expansionary nor contractionary. those assessments are quite low at this time. we do expect overtime that neutral rate to move up. positive the rate of change will be overtime. given that the economy is now

are the currents you are feeling when it comes to the global economy? e look at export data from emerging markets, it's looking slack. >> it is looking slack. when we look at the macro, we can avoid looking at what the fed and other central banks are doing. you have seen the fed turned dovish. that does give people hope that they are looking at the global economy to be constructive. you saw with the ecb did, and we see that is as the first step in recognition that currency is not the only level. there has to be cognizance of the challenges banks are facing. situation, have a impetigo europe and japan, with negative rates. central bank saying to the banks, land lynn, lynn, and then regulators saying get your tier one capital ratios in order, and that ties one hand behind their backs. >> absolutely. the moves the ecb made related to credit and their moves on corporate bonds, certainly acknowledge there are other ways to stimulate and to try to untie that hand. even as they don't back off from the new requirements. the remains to be seen at japan will try t

the european economy. mario draghi says the lower rates are here to stay for an extended time. but the economy still faces challenges. the outlook remains tilted to the downside. -- in relation to developments in the global economy as well as broader geopolitical risks. joining us from pimco, the portfolio manager for germany. guest: hi. mark: how do you explain this turnaround in the markets? initially a sense of jubilation. we have seen a 180 degrees split. why is that? my head onscratching that a little bit, too. i do not think it is the rise in the euro. they of signal to the markets that they believe inflation is going to surge. it is a signal of economic strength. clearly, i think it is dominated by the interest rates, using interest-rate is one of the tools has effectively come to an end. draghi has given the signal that interest rates as a tool is exhausted. i really think we will see -- quantitiessignaling of what it buys, government bonds, nonfinancial or print bonds -- that will be the heavy lifting on easing going forward. i think that those quantities will dominate. i do not see the signs that growth and inflation are bouncing back. what about the decision to find non-bank, corporate debt? i

this revolution will undo the global industrial economy which has underpinned the advance he made by society for more than 200 years. replacing the old model will be a global digital economy fueled by advances in data technology information and robotics as well as advances in genetic and biological sciences. that's a lot but to really understand the gravity of what i'm talking about it is useful to go back in history and see how transformative past been. in the late 1700s the british pioneered the use of water superheated to mechanize production. that led to factories dotting the country side. the second industrial revolution starting in the late 1800s switched to coal powered electrical power to create mass production. the economies of stale changed the course of human history, by destroying cottage industries and lured workers to the cities and towns. in the final decades of the 20th century took off by the use of electronics and information technology to automate that technology. the devices that we couldn't imagine living without today. the revolution that's underway today is bein

anna: setting out quite a shopping list of risk to the economy, in particular, the global focus beinget to remain. stewart: very much so. we are watching china and the emerging markets, they are aware of that. setting policy not just for their own economy, they cannot ignore that as well. they have to make sure that the pattern of what is happening in the u.s. -- inflation may seem like yesterday's story. that could buy them in the future. they have to be a little bit careful. manus: they have to be a little bit careful. i say this lightly tongue-in-cheek. but this is the dollar affect, the dollar dove. she found a lot of wrong. but the momentum in the dollar, the fed do not want a stronger dollar. and this is a critically important point, isn't it, in terms of what she is trying to do -- shifting that dial. fadart: it is not just a that is not what the stronger dollar, it is important for the emerging market universe. and the fed does not want to feel the pressure much more. monetary conditions are not just about interest rates, they're about currencies, too. as you say, they don't w

at the same time, we recognize that china plays an enormous role in the global economy and by virtue ur presence in china, we can not only help connect our chinese numbers to opportunity and enable them to live the kind of life they want to live but we can connect them with opportunities outside of china and other connect companies within china to the global economy. that will create more value for everybody. emily: do you think facebook and twitter have a chance in china or are they so different there's no way they will be able to make it work? jeff: the fundamental difference is we are a platform. the chinese are very focused on extending the ranks of their middle-class. on twitter and facebook, you have platforms that are more oriented towards communication and facilitating the way in which people communicate with one another. it's different, it doesn't necessarily mean it's not possible. emily: what does linkedin look like five years from now? jeff: five years from now, you will continue to see us focus on these core pillars in terms of value propositions. one of the things we are

>> you had very strong words in your speech and a strong warning about the global economy. ou go here. are you warning that there's a potential global recession that we're on the doorstep of? >> i don't think so. we still see growth recovery happening around the world but with a weak baseline and i think and the reason i am calling for action is that with the risks near at hand it seems like a good time to try to strengthen prospects for growth and diminish the vulnerabilities to risk right now. >> we had it from january and showed a down fwrad from october. are you suggesting the next time that the imf guy come backs to this in a month or so that there will be another downgrade of the global economy. but right now we're sticking to our baseline. >> is in your comments also that the imf was not satisfied with the g-20: that global central banks and authorities are not working together enough to combat the risks. >> this was a meeting in shanghai. quite a successful meeting that everyone recognized and i think agreed with our assessment about where things stand. europe and ja

you. >> thank you for having me. >> the last time we spoke you were bearish on your view of the global economyactor in now? >> i haven't changed my view. i think what we have in the u.s. is not fully priced, fully valued. and around the world we see a slowdown in economic activity. so overall i would be rather cautious about investments in equities. over the last 12 to 24 months many sectors have had huge declines. take gold mining shares since 2011 they dropped 80%, 90%. this year they have a strong rebound. many gold shares are up close to 100% and i think what will happen is that the market will turn into more active management of equities, in other words away from index funds and that will favor managers that take advantage of sectors. we have malaysia, thailand, indonesia. these markets are up in dollar terms between 9% and 12%. so different sectors will move at different times. i see here and there some opportunities. >> what are the opportunities in your view right now, mark? >> well, i think in asia the sentiment turns very bearish at the end of last year. especially concerning china a

affairs butdovish investors look concern for the outlook of the global economy. london, the weak dollar boosting. we have seen big gains in the mining industry. have a look at the movement in the bond space and the currency space. in the bond space, things the client for the u.k. 10 year and the german 10 year. in the currency was some interesting moves for the pound against the dollar and it's other peers within the jeter. the bank of england did absolutely nothing today. all members voted to keep rates on hold. many wins into this meeting with the believe that the bank might discuss cutting rates. we are seeing a big rally in sterling against all of its peers except for the u.s. dollar. quick take on oil. >> above $40 a barrel for the first time since december. able to hold onto that gain. nevertheless, a huge change for oil. ♪ from london and new york, this is the european i am mark barton, with scarlet fu and alix steel. stocks were down 1.8% after the more dovish sentiment and emerging markets. miners rallying on the back of a weaker dollar. lufthansa shares

economy. that is why i am focusing on the global situation. a stronger global economy now is where the confidence needs to come from. charley: what do you see having inflation over this year and the next? jack: inflation depending on which measure you look at, getting closer to the 2% target people have been looking at, it is not showing any signs of exploding. i think it is a good thing. one of the problems we have in the country is the disparity of incomes and the way to solve that is for there to be some increase in wages in lower levels. charley: you mean raise the minimum wage. jack: i think that is something we should do for the -- as a government. we have been supportive of the proposals. charley: not $15 as some cities have an post. jack: we are supportive of efforts to increase them and wait for it are supportive of actions being taken at the state local level. remainted states will one of the most powerful drivers of the economy. i have said over and over again over the last three years, the world cannot count on the united states to

i think they'll do that by saying, well, the global economy is looking weak and uncertain, we would like get more data on the strength of the global economy before they move. but i think janet yellen will have to sound a little hawkish. the truth is, the federal reserve panicked over the summer and didn't raise rates when they should have done it in september. they have now panicked over the first quarter and thus are not going to raise rates in march. i agree with bob, they need to be less transparent. they need to be less transparent between meetings. they have set this up now by panicking and some of the statements over the last few weeks, they set market expectations so people would not be surprised if they raised rates and that's taken the ability out of their hands. let them say their peace now. i think they should be a little quieter between now and the next meeting. >> interesting point that brian was making. and i reference hamilton, which i saw last night, and the advice to hamilton was talk less, smile more, and never let them know what you stand for. there is a danger in too

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