the inversion.le of 25% rallies over the years that would take us to about 4,300, 4325. that's not out of the question in the near term stocks can move higher with the curve inverted but one quick thing. i was looking at u.s. rates relative to european rates that spread is starting to widen out here, and that's exactly when the dollar bottomed as well so i don't know that's sustainable. but pay attention to that rate differential relative to the dollar and what that means for corporate earnings. >> time for the final trade. >> xrt i was a seller of xrt a couple weeks ago. it failed right another that august high. i think it continues lower from here. >> courtney. >> we were talking about this with the super bowl, but i do think you want these kind of companies that have pricing power in your portfolio. >> over/under on the game. pick a number. >> come on >> 50? >> eagles by 100 >> eagles by 100 >> that's not going to happen, and therefore i worry for you because i know you -- >> you're asking me a q

hello on february 21, 1746, the scottish castle inverse fell, it was captured by jacobite supporters he stuart dynasty, who tried to regain the english throne, their leader was prince charles' grandson, allegedly the second overthrown back in 1688 as a result of a glorious revolution. he was supported by the scottish irish clans, who did not want to obey london, and money and charles received weapons from france, having landed in the north of scotland, the prince gathered an army, captured odinburgh and other cities in the queue was the inverse castle. the siege lasted a week , the jacobites bribed the ramparts to lay powder mines, the defenders did not wait until they were blown up and capitulated. however, two months later , the jacobites were completely defeated in battle. at the colony. this, by the way, was the last major battle on british soil. charles fled and the case and the cabinets were. lost 21 february 1886 in st. petersburg, the premiere of modest mussorgsky's opera khovanshchina took place, the composer called it a folk musical drama and wrote the libretto himself based

at the very end of the old street stone, obelisk naim, the inversion of the darwinian , with the helpparticipant, burned us in the heap of chervin sometimes. dzya. dow zhan-shin flew up and children. grant good people, but that it doesn’t eliminate you from her guests, such ice on the basement of the winery, many sheeps and moss on the drive, well, on the butt of my granny you sing the efforts of the soloist and at khatyn and oh yes to the lion, then you should be filled with these masses of otchuvanie, and the pain of greed ikea's military could bring before it stopped, that i just didn't born climate, let's say that the leather third sank into there is no war. this means that she did not accept such immediate families of plyos beggarly soldiers and zhikhara of the belarusian lands. or maybe the case has military money, and i will mention the orthodox factor for nothing. today we cannot forge both patriotism and povaga. yes, the feat of the front of the lips was to continue to stand on the eternal post, the white-barreled belarusian. they were planted by juveniles from moldova, they

north of scotland, the prince collected an army captured one burg and other cities in line was the inverseege lasted a week and the cabinet was dug under the ramparts in order to lay powder mines, the defenders did not wait until they were blown up and capitulated. however, after 2 months, the cabins were completely defeated in the battle. at the colony. this, by the way, was the last major battle on british soil. charles fled and the case and it was finally lost on february 21, 1886. modest mussorgsky's opera khovanshchina premiered in st. petersburg, the composer called it folk musical drama and wrote the libretto himself based on the events of russian history at the end of the 17th century, when, after the streltsy revolt, power was actually seized by prince ivan khovansky musorskiye studied documents, widely used folk songs, conducted dance numbers, but did not have time to complete and the opera was finalized by nikolai rimsky, the course of its censorship did not miss did not like the religious strife. moreover, in the finale it was with raskolnikov's massage, so the performance was

the russian english version in the clause of the obligation of the parties in the russian text, the inversionto transfer $ 20 million about the company and transfer intellectual property in the english version instead of end and costs r or either transfer money or intellectual property. so i think they will choose a $20 million appraiser. okay, let's say this is all true. come on, what's the point? i to you i'll tell you. but i want five percent information for you profitable. so i want my fair share. i'm sure they'll admit at the court hearing that they were wrong. the typist's mistake wanted you to cheat compensation. here is the most important thing. i have cards. well, you can see your entire earth . but the deposit of koalite khalites is clay, simple clay, without which it is impossible to manufacture, for example, ceramic tiles for toilet bowls. god don't worry. morning to enjoy correctly i am a boy woman suffers russia is done that i will sleep with my grandfather. me well, okay, where will we play the wedding? where and when what thoughts? you are silent, especially since all the frie

that is the topic today and earlier, we asked about the inversion. she was focused on a different indicator. >> the chances of a recession have gone down a little bit. that being said, i think we will see it as the fed continues to ratchet up rates and continues to shrink the balance sheet, which most people have forgotten is happening in the background. that is significant tightening. i would not worry so much about the yield curve, i would worry more about the labor market. kriti: the yield curve inversion perhaps not the scary thing we are making it out to be. what are investors focusing on? maybe more on corporate earnings, you got a taste of that with megan greene. a wrap up of some of the biggest stocks, i want to start with pepsico. that was my favorite indicator, the snack to drink ratio. >> you are seeing the stock boosting higher today, especially because sales came in better than projected, especially given the dynamic you were talking about when it comes to the inflation picture. it had to raise prices, but still, customers were snatching

you can see the inversion is traping in a lot of haze down in the south bay. that's looking over san jose. and from the top of the sales force tower looking south, you can see that as well. and in that sense, it is not necessarily the prettiest day. but it is blue sky above that and a little warmer than yesterday. we already made it to 60 in the trivalley. it is 57 in concord. and, we are looking at 55 along the bay. and hazy. oakland there, daytime highs bring us into the low 60s . everybody goes about another two to three degrees above this tomorrow. thursday is the warmest day. then we get into the more interesting weather that shows up here. that's our next chance for rain friday night. we will play that all the way through into saturday. in the complete first alert forecast in a bit. >>> san mateo county is opening a pair of disaster relief centers for business owners hit hard by the january storms. epasc ade ro high school will be opened all day to help connect victims with services. housing options and small business help. people have until march 16th t

preserved, we write down the recipe of her youth massage in the chair bath in a barrel, a bat on the inversionable and the eternal desire to desire something else, a friend of 20 years old. yes, you are in these 20 years. how it has changed for 20, of course, if we talk about 10 from the birth of semyon yes, there are normal statistics, how would a woman be a holiday. sexy wolf wow cool, and then suddenly for 10 already almost 11 years, and the mother of russia the banner of all people with special needs of their development families. that is, in general, completely different. of course, if i had such a portrait interview on the ntv channel in such a chic program 11 years ago. one day i would sit, i probably had a huge neckline, and i would have legs, of course, i would show that i still have legs, well, as if they were drop dead, that twenty-year-old girls envy them, you know? i would show all this, but now i can’t see, i have a kind of serious brooch, i have scarab beetles that protect from the evil eye, because from a very large eye it haunts all my life. let's put an ellipsis, i want to te

most of the moves are really coming through with their treasury yield curve inversion that we saw. deepening indicator, that twos tends curve, telling us perhaps that markets are nearing the end, or bracing for more of a recessionary outlook. that is playing into their mixed trading we are expecting this morning. japanese futures pointing to a weaker start. kiwi stocks edging higher. what could help is the move back into the csa 300, north asian stocks in vogue again, given the expectation that central banks in other parts of the world could stay higher for longer. and a bit of breaking news crossing the terminal in the last few minutes from south korean company -- hybe. it is an entertainment company. it is about to buy a company, a deal that is worth over 422 billion won. that would make it the largest shareholder in the company. we are watching those stocks when they do open in seoul at the top of the next hour. shery: we have a rate decision out of the room the central bank -- out of peru. the central bank holding the rate steady at 7.75%. only one out of 11 economists surveyed

it makes sense that the yield curve remains inverted so i'm less inclined to read too much into the inversionthe yield curve, into an imminent recession. we still have recession for early 2024 we see that trajectory for a recession is not imminent. >> i disagree. we're seeing two months of declining in industrial production and consumer spending and two months of decline in real income. we are more and more signs that we are seeing an earlier reaction again, this is going to be a period, if we look back, paul volcker was cutting rates after employment was rising. the year through december, since 1948 -- >> do you think the fed is in the position like volcker was in the '80s after he succeeded in beating the inflation. >> the yield curve is telling us the right message. ultimately the fed will follow it it will be the second half of this year. unless we get all of these declines in sale and jobs, the fed will cut later in the year >> quick response to that? >> it's possible it really depends on the trajectory for the job market. that's why the job market has been extraordinarily resilient i th

there's a lot of reason, a lot of momentum behind mega cap tech rallying so i think it's almost the inverse of what we saw in october when markets were coming down. you couldn't fight it with the big cap falling apart at the end of q4, but now tech is what's leading us out and it's the same thing. don't fight the bull market and don't fight the mega cap leadership. >> now, i want to bring up something had a dropped a little while ago from marco kolanavik because i want your reaction to it it kind of flies in the face of what you're arguing. history implies that for the current level of real rates the s&p 500 multiples is two and a half times overvalued. higher for longer rates create negative external tis including higher interest costs for larger assets and asset write-downs and credit losses. as much, risk-reward for equities remains poor in our view reinforcing our underweight equity stance. this is from somebody who was bullish for longer than most. >> i know. >> until he saw the writing on the wall. >> and i get that. you are fighting some macro headwinds, without a tout. looking at th

stocks slide as the treasury yield inversion reaches the widest something 1980's. a more hawkish fed. good morning, the 1980's were great for hairdos, makeup, boy george, and of course a really malevolent bond market. dani: good morning. i tried to do a hairdo today, maybe i need to rethink that to it with the times. manus: i had a cliff in the 80's. dani: just tease it a little bit. i love what andy brunner said, you don't need the fed to have a bad day. sentiment following prices at this point. manus: steven major was with us yesterday, he said the harder and faster the fed pushed to the peak, the more confident that bond market will be that the equilibrium is lower. we know there is a monster out there just gorging on these option trades that rates could get to six if not even eight cents. that could come unstuck very quickly, or someone could make a mountain of money on valentine's day. dani: the question continues to be, to equity and bond markets disconnect? yesterday, they did fall, we are seeing that weakness today. we are looking at an msci asia-pacific in

the deepest inversion we have seen since the early 1980's. when you say there is no drama there is the university of michigan sentiment survey. i am focused on the reading. how much does it rebound or not in tandem with lower gasoline prices? i am also curious because we are expecting a higher year ahead outlook for inflation. this will be interesting, have we reach this feeling, peak immaculate disinflation narrative in markets. today we also have the european council meeting in brussels. they are discussing ukraine and the european response. there was drama overnight. they are also talking about the response to the u.s. inflation reduction act. i minted did to see whether there is -- i am interested to see whether there is any cohesion on their side or this will end up being a point of tension. today there is a bunch of fed speak. fed governor chris waller and philadelphia fed president patrick waller. do they double down on the groupthink? do they push back? what kind of narrative to they give going into the tuesday report which will be a

to advance to the trenches, and here the situation is like this what will this process be well, the inversesntinue proportionally, yes, that is, in principle, their weapons will decrease, their own weapons, and today there are very serious problems, including, i myself once said that they have a lot of iron shells and the like, but it was lying for a very long time in open areas, standing on in open areas and now it is very difficult to use it, including these ammunitions. this is how they are already mentioned and we are with you today as neighbors. china, which still allegedly can decide to help with weapons or not, is north korea for example, which also has certain connections with china and which supplies the russian federation. i am already silent about the iranian ships that sit down in moscow to deliver regularly, but let's simply compare with you. yes, that's 2.5, well, with china it's fine, with china it will be 12 .5% of the world gdp, but here there are 60, almost 60 of the world gdp, 50 countries that are here with us - this is almost 60% of the world gdp, and these are not compa

today has not changed my mind, no you couldn't have said it better we do think that '23 will be the inverse- this is a period where we might get that slowdown. although that slowdown appears a bit elusive right now. earnings may come in a little bit. and yet the market will likely go up, because we had selloff last year, 25%, anticipating the recession that just continues to look elusive i think the argument has nuanced a little bit it's gone from the fundamentals are surprisingly strong. they're mixed, but stronger than people anticipated and as a result of that, you know, we're starting to get this no landing argument. just like human nature, we just always get a worst case outcome. so it seems like everybody, or at least today, people are jumping to the conclusion that the fundamentals are stronger. that means that inflation will be higher and hotter and the fed is going to have to continue to raise and cause a hard landing i don't know why we have to jump to those conclusions you can have a stronger than expected economy and yet inflation continue to calm as the supply chain bottlenecks

quite a size and scope, the deepest inversion since the 1980's. at you think is driving those twin dynamics and how deep could that inversion go? >> inflation dominates all, as it always does in fixed income and is particularly acute right now. we just talked about it with my colleagues. as we think about this year, it is both the trajectory and ultimately the pace. the question you ask is spot on, how choppy is the inflation trajectory likely to be as we go forward? the next few months, it should be relatively smooth. we should see inflation coming down over the next few months. the question is, is it going to get more choppy? we think it will in that range if inflation gets down closer to 5% rather than 6% as you saw before. as you get down to those types of levels, it is going to become much more choppy. with respect to the curve and the shape of the curve, deeply inverted is the name of the game. we like a little bit of incremental duration as yields have backed up. we think it is not a bad opportunity to add a little duration. but at the front

through the darkness, she might either from us all other questions, give me a lot people with her to the inversion low who the gym by that a young to had. as a sister shows us to jim's only home gazande on come on of america until suddenly the person who's been trying to ruin your life for years, contacts you whining to help me. me, me, me, me, me a 1st. you're taken aback. what is this is and assets will go from dallas and then it quit. then you realize he's really in trouble now take on the loss of an cynthia caught also call us when the lindsey think to yourself and in early 2019 more than 40000 people. from the last remaining i asked territory surrendered lay. i know her messing was one of them. nearly 4 years after leaving germany, she found herself in the syrian desert. the images from a news agency went around the world of because i, i was my own my own nice big long time ago. and no i know did with oh for her father at home in brighton. bah, it was the news he had been waiting years to hear a soul that i basically slept through it through. i'd be hoping for this for years. vince, just as h

we're not people with her to the inversion low who the gym by that a young to had, as a sister, shows us to jim's only home gazande on come on of america until suddenly the person who's been trying to ruin your life for years, contacts you whining to help me me, me, me, me, me a 1st you taken aback. what is this is and assets will go from the us and then it creates, then you realize he's really in trouble now take on the loss of an cynthia caught, also call us on the lindsay think to yourself them in early 20. 19 more than 40000 people from the last remaining i asked territory surrendered lay. i know her messing was one of them. nearly 4 years after leaving germany, she found herself in the syrian desert. the images from a news agency went around the world of because i, i was my own my own nice big long time ago and no, i know, did with oh, for her father at home and biden, bah, it was the news he had been waiting years to hear a soul. i basically slept through it. so i'd be hoping for this for years. vince, just as her niche market that was pretty go to bed, get up and find the probl

there are plenty of other forward-looking signs that a recession is imminent, including the inversionf the yield curve. really, i think this has been such an unusual cycle, such a rapid cycle that some of the relationships that maybe we have seen historically have broken down somewhat. i'm going to steal from gerard reiner, a great strategist we speak to. he's talked about the fact that this service is rotation, and the fact that has led to some recession indicators coming from the goods side of the economy, while the services side is still playing catch-up post-lockdown. that is maybe why we got not necessarily false indicators, but indicators trickling earlier than we would imagine. i think that is a convincing explanation. alix: super appreciate it. james athey, aberdeen investment manager. coming up, lots of earnings coming out, particularly in europe. have barclays plunging after revenue messes. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family or passing down the family business or givin

the not back to december 7 but this is new 2023 inversion. comes after the 1.7 percent decline in the nasdaq. have we reached the point where people are not in the let's make it rally mode? this move we are seeing ahead of today suggests people are looking to buy more than they are looking to double down. tom: this is a joy. freight now we are going to go down memory lane which is that a guy named david malpass got a job in washington holding a bank. there was absolutely definitive emerging-market coverage. there was something about it in the air, in the pixie dust. chief market strategist catherine rooney vera i have to go back to all of it what was it like as bear stearns, in my opinion invented em coverage on wall street. >> thank you for that kind introduction. i miss it. ian was a strong point. i was in emerging-market research. tom: it was a different battle. as bill rhodes would say the central banker to the world. jerome powell is he the central banker? what is a power of our central bank leader now? >> emerge in markets -- emerging ma

liz: well, and let's not forget the yield curve inversion, chris. between the 2 and the 10-year yield, i believe we've got a yield curve inversion of, what, like 120 basis points or something insane? yeah, 120 basis points. so off and on, the, of course, indicates fear of recession. we haven't seen it yet. we had the guy who even came up with the yield curve recession saying this time it's wrong. what do you think? >> well, i think, you know, there's a lot of opinions out there, right? the stock market clearly appears to be thinking there's going to be a soft landing, maybe it's a short squeeze, i don't know. but there's a lot of rally saying it's going on the a soft landing where i think if you look at the debt markets, they think it's going to be the that -- a hard or landing. those are two different perspectives, and you also have the fed saying they're going to keep higher for longer, and the market's projecting short-term rates coming down, you know, as early as the ended of this year. so there's a lot of differing points of view there to sort o

she might other from us with a lot of people with her to the inversion. low vision by that a young to had as this is to shows us teaching the only home isn't on. come on, love american girl. suddenly the person who's been trying to ruin your life for years, contacts you whining to help me. me, me, me, me, me a 1st year taken aback. what is this is and assets will go from dallas and then it creates, then you realize he's really in trouble. now click on the last to do, an sink is caught also call us on the lindsay think to yourself and in early 2019 more than 40000 people from the last remaining i s territory surrendered. lay a know her messing was one of them. nearly 4 years after leaving germany, she found herself in the syrian desert. the images from a news agency went around the world of because i, i was my own, my own nice big long time ago. and no, i know that was in the for her father at home in biden. bah, it was the news he had been waiting years to hear as a soul. i basically slept through it. so i'd be hoping for this for years vinci the sir in th

she might other from us with a lot of people with her to the inversion. low vision by that a young to have as this is to shows us teaching the only home isn't on. come on, love american girl. suddenly the person who's been trying to ruin your life for years contacts you whining to help me. me, me, me, me, me a 1st you taken aback. what is this isn't assets we'll go from dallas and then it creates then you realize he's really in trouble. now click on the loss of an sink is caught also call us on the lindsay think to yourself in early 2019 more than 40000 people from the last remaining i asked territory surrendered lay. i know her messing was one of them. nearly 4 years after leaving germany, she found herself in the syrian desert. the images from a news agency went around the world of because i, i was my own my own nice big long time ago. and no, i know that was in the oh for her father at home in biden. bah, it was the news he had been waiting years to hear. oh, as a soul, i basically slept through it through. i'd be hoping for this for years vinci the sir

the inversion of the yield curve and people said we've seen this movie before you don't always have a recession when you have an inverted curve but you never have one without it. it's just inevitable along with everything else you have to worry about. >> i think to joe's point we've been talking about this disconnect between the bond market and the stock market for months now and we keep saying why are the equity markets not looking, why aren't there expectations we've seen evidence of a softer landing but the data that steph was talking about over the course of the last four or five weeks it's clear the sizzle has started to fizzle in the market. we are seeing a spike up we saw inflation as a result of that if you look at the basket, you see that trend not improving at the same pace. that was what powell warned about. he was asked will the trend that we're seeing persist >> is a strong economy a friend or a foe to the market steph paints a picture it's a friend it will carry us through others say it's your foe because it will provoke, incite, the word joe has used at times, the fed.

think about past tightening sights cycles we worry about the inversion of the yield curve but if youat the prior two instances, the time to get concerned, catalyst for selling was fed cut, january 2007, january turn when the central banks are scrambling to catch up to the deterioration in economic activity. we're not there yet. charles: that is the irony. everyone was rooting for a cut this year, but if the cut is next year maybe this could come true. >> mid-cycle correction, buy volatility. charles: thank you so much, my man. coming up gary k. is with us. he scans thousands of stocks from around the world. he was busy this weekend. i can't wait to find out what he is seeing. jon najarian sharing hills top option plays. hailey lennon pushes back against the premature victory from the global elites. bitcoin ain't dead, y'all. ♪. young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and s

there's an argument to be made the peak commodity story is in play if you look at the yield curve inversionh is the deepest and most significant it has been since the early 1980s, it's reflected in the priced in commodities. >> you have a lot of crossover with joe, pioneer and shell, and joe doesn't have that but you do what about this space? what about this call >> if you say energy will maintain or get back the leadership role, you have to be expecting not a lot from everything else, and energy was up 50% in 2021 and 2022, and would i expect energy to be over all this year by 10%, 12%. is that leadership most of those names are in our u.s. dividend portfolio, but if you are kind of wrong you sit there and scape the dividends and hope the share prices plateau, which i think they should with oil above $60 a barrel, these companies continue to make cash it gets back to all valuations the share prices are under 10 times earnings i sold chevron because of the dividend yield, but some of the popular ones, like chevron and exxon, some of those multiples are getting stretched. i am playing more p

we get the stagnant air and that inversion layer and the pollutants settle into the valley.t means whatever we're putting up in the atmosphere is getting pushed back down and we're having to breathe that in. so our air quality will get worse over the next couple of days as a result. and today we're looking at some moderate air quality for parts of the coast and the bay, the east bay, as well as santa clara valley. other areas are still good, but it's right on that line where we could see it turning moderate over the next couple of days. and our temperatures are making it so that we want to get outside a little bit more. we're going to feel temperatures in the mid-60s this afternoon. we're still in the low 60s for san francisco, but 64 today in oakland, and tonight chilly once again with upper 30s and low 40s. going through the forecast, we are going to see a couple of systems coming in. one very close on friday. watching to see if we can get some slight rain chances out of that because that's the only chance we have for quite a while. even the rain chance we're watching for

ignited the entire long end of the treasury curve, yields to go higher, it took away some of the inversionsversus 10s on its way to minus 87 and has reversed, hovering around minus 82 any close of 82.5 basis points or more negative will be a fresh for decade inversion fed fund futures, the fulcrum from june, july, august, now september. the further out it goes, the more fed it is bringing and the way the markets are pushing these things, so right now you could see all the prices going down, every month until you reach september and stop going down let's use that chart this is year to date it is hovering at 94.87. it has never closed lower than that the lower it goes, the more fed we're bringing into the equation finally, my surprise chart, when i traded bonds in the '80s, every thursday at 2:30 eastern, they released money supply it used to be the biggest variable moving interest rates those days are long gone and m2 isn't as famous as it used to be but i would throw this chart up. this chart goes back four decades. m2 year over year percentage changes turn negative and here is a good reaso

the round-trip. you see it with a renewed inversion. looked at this morning, i took it to the t-bill three-month to 30 year bond. that is down to 30 year historic inversion. jonathan: the equity market has it piling on. pushing back against the rally, we have seen so far today. lisa: we are taking a bite out of the rally we saw earlier this year, maybe more like a nibble. the bears saying if you look at earnings, they have not been good. people are talking about resilience, you have not seen them in terms of profits versus low expectations. at what point are they justified if people are seeing real strength that is going to support these companies? that is the issue. jonathan: does chairman powell have to recalibrate the message tomorrow? lisa: i think the jobs report did it for him. i think he will enjoy there is more volatility. are they basically relinquishing their control mechanism over markets and saying, you guys figure it out? jonathan: we mentioned it in the last hour. we have gone from soft landing, hard landing, soft landing a

the kyiv council , and we even have a joint project with him on the decision to create in kyiv the best inversal the it-school of ukraine in such we had enough. it was a ukrainian-israeli project when they evaluate it - the minister of defense here is uh, in principle, it seems to me that he would be more focused on some much more important issues, the food in the army is gentle , he seems to know everything, somehow it goes dahaida i will deal with the pension has always been he is so focused on the western meeting, he is an excellent communicator, what happened in the ministry of defense and who appointed these measures there, i don’t know what forces there are, but i personally have great respect and support for oleksiy reznikov, so that when ukrainian manufacturers started producing them immediately the ministry of defense can be said to have reached out to contact and said let's go with the best developers, in principle, several of them even here on our e-e on our front line, we as a unit in this matter drank we are testing artillery reconnaissance. the national defense commission, several

they're in fact conspiracy theories and people look at it and say the inverse of what they say in courtrooms. i hear one line in the courtroom, now everything the person said is called into question. in news it works the opposite way, which is they hear some things that are true and say, well, some of these other things must also be true because that other thing they said was true. so they are very clever about mixing in some things that may be true in an avalanche of things that are suspect or may be false, and it gets their viewers who want to believe the things that support their biases to believe in those things. so what you're seeing in those text messages are exactly that. massive effort at manipulation, unethical in every possible way, but they know it works. and their viewers want to believe it. >> and the thing is, i think about, charlie, sort of how rush limbaugh kind of changed the entire game in terms of the way the right receives information and news. everything he said he presented it as this is not only news but the news that the fake news is not telling you. fox does it somew

it's interesting that it's actually the inverse when you talk to them. they believe that politically that this has far more of an impact on a negative matter to the republicans, then it does the president himself. they think is very obviously politically motivated, white house officials today spoke into, and at some level they believe that is just following the lead of former president donald trump, who obviously pursued similar issues, when that led to his impeachment, his first impeachment back when he was president. i think one thing, when you talk to white house officials, they make clear they have internal polling -- doesn't rank anywhere near the top of the issues that they see, when they get their poles back, and that's why they've remained a pretty laser focus on the presidents agenda. but he's trying to accomplish on the policy side of things, ignoring or trying to differentiate shoes. making clear that they will engage with congressional committees on these issues, if they're done in good faith, implicitly, and that's if they don't think that in

really, this conversation is this repricing with what the fed does in the inversion of the curve, which is reflecting that. yvonne: .2%, the most -- 2/10, the most aversion we have seen since 1986. if you think this is a powerful recession signaled the bond markets are taking wind of this. equities are feeling that and may be starting to align themselves with the fed. the mind shift has relation -- changed. rishaad: it has. let's have a look at how the mindset change with the reading on inflation we got out of china. the cpi back in alignment, showing acceleration. ppi contracting further than expected, we had .8%. yvonne: yeah. this just goes to show, china is deflationary, not inflationary. this reopening story can bring inflation back in a big way. david: which can be a good or bad thing. let's bring that question to fan cheuk wan. she joining us in our studios, happy new year. you were on a two week road -- road trip talking to investors, how was it? >> reversal of the risk sentiment, i think this is a large -- this is largely driven by the faster than expected full reopening of the

however, it's interesting that it's the inverse. when you talk to them, they believe politically this has far more of an impact in a negative matter towards republicans than the president himself. they think it's, obviously, politically motivated and in some level they believe that it's just following the lead of former president trump who, obviously, pursued similar issues, one that led to his impeachment, his first impeachment when he was president. i think one thing when you talk to white house officials they make clear much they have internal polling that shows that investigating hunter biden, investigating the president's family doesn't rank near the top of the issues that they see when they get their polls back and that's why they have maintained a pretty lasered focus on the president's agenda, what he is trying to accomplish on the policy side of things and ignoring or trying to defer on these issues making clear they will engreige in congressional committees investigating these issues if they are done in good faith. they don

yields are moving up a lot and the yield curve inversion has been widening gradually and reached the widest inversion since the 1980's. the grind away from the optimism , that is not what the bond market is seeing. the bond market is seeing the chance that there will be a recession and that it will be a recession the fed will help to create because it will be forced to push rates up high enough and keep them there long enough in order to slow demand sufficiently to bring down inflation. that is what is going on there. we had a very strong push higher on where the fed's terminal rate will be. it is pretty much priced in, as well as a big reduction in expectations in rate cuts at the end of this year by the fed. >> that is just what traders are saying. we have other central banks out there as well. how do they read this? >> the global central bank community is a tight bunch. they do a good job of speaking to each other. looking at how they agree, they are all concerned about the fact they need to bring inflation down. that is part of what has been a surprise here in australia. the rba g

this and we have thought yields would go lower and they're moving at least in the ten-year and the inversion continues to widen out before our eyes it has gone from 49 basis points back to over 70 basis points i think it is on its way to 1%, 3 1/4, or whatever it is it is looser than it has been -- >> he was asked that during the press conference about that. >> he was not earnest about that because financial conditions are clearly looser than in quite sometime >> a couple of things important about this week including amd yesterday who was almost -- you know, they were almost a high multiple internet stock today. this is one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world that was up 12.5% today but rallied -- after being up into the press release, rallied another 5% on what he said so the question is, amd who yesterday pointed out, look, the first half will be tough, we have an inventory glut, but by the second half of the year we see data center and enterprise customers actually reaccelerating the question is where should the equity markets be? what we're seeing, and usually at the poin

two-year yield, the yield inversion remains pronounced, a move higher at the front end of the curve. coming back to the goldman sachs view, we have looked at the ecb in terms of the fed, there is an expectation that you will not get it cut until 2024 at the earliest. futures stateside pointing to losses of .6%. euro-dollar at 1.06, and brent in focus, $83 a barrel, down .6% after a decent rally yesterday, the dynamics around china demand versus fed hikes and what that does to the broader global economy. let's check in on hsbc. the shares dropped in the hong kong session, opening in the u.k., down 1.7% despite that they beat in terms of earnings and are considering a special payout when they sell their canadian business, 610, pretax profit rising 92% in the fourth quarter. the ceo tells bloomberg he is not overly concerned with performance in the u.k. >> from my own portfolio, what i see through our consumer and retail business, we're not seeing major signs of stress in our retail business. it is in relatively normal territory. in our commercial banking business, there are corporates

right now we're seeing that it's interesting how the fixed income markets are really -- with the steep inversionhowing a much weaker, you know, much weaker economy coming, and then you have the jobs numbers last friday, and you're seeing the reaction and the equities. we continue to see this pretty strong bounce here it's don'ting. the trend has not slowed down yet. >> we surveyed that great one known as twitter 66% of respondents said, no, we have not made our high for the year how would you have responded >> i would agree the trend is the equities want to move higher i'm cautious i feel like the markets have gotten ahead of their skis at these levels considering where it looks like it's going with the fed going 5% the companies are telling us they're more cautious. laying off people, giving guidance that's certainly showing a weaker economy i'm certainly conscious. right now what we're seeing in the markets, yeah, i think it does go higher. >> any stock or specific investments you like right now we love getting a little opportunity at 5:50 in the morning, eric. >> yeah. i mean i'm more defensi

the widest inversions since 1981. markets take it in stride. from new york, i am alix steel with my cohost, in london, guy johnson. a nice rally, s&p of .6%. nasdaq up 1%. guy: equities keep pushing higher. equities are by and large at the moment, positioning is the big story, the earnings story is a factor in all of this as well. it is really interesting at the end of earnings season to see where equities are. the middle of earnings season, we are towards the middle, kind of towards the end, how we end is going to be interesting. jobs and pricing, but less focus on jobs. layoffs happening at a corporate level. employment lags but if you believe the jobs number, everyone should be able to get new jobs. i am wondering when that circle starts to break now. alix: i am wondering if it is a small, medium size business versus public company traded public companies can still be seeing a very large nape -- a very large labor market. i appreciate it is not just tech. it is banks, other industries as well. but still big public sector companies. guy: how

, before we let you go, any thoughts on where you think the terminal rate should be, and on the curve inversionn to 88 basis points how relevant do you think that is right now in the context of conversations about recession? >> i don't worry so much about curve inversions i think markets worry much, much, too much about that. what they show you, of course, is the fed is tightening, and the long end of the yield curve or the medium end, depends which kind of inversion you're looking at, hasn't responded as much as the short end. that's very normal for -- that, in general, is very normal for a fed tightening, and if there's enough of it, you get an inversion of the yield curve on your first question, i think the -- i'm in the process of rethinking that myself i was thinking before this recent data came in and before the brainard announcement was made that the fed might well -- would probably pull up shy of 5% i think that looks less likely now. i think going over 5%, at least somewhat, is more likely, and maybe to 5.5%, depending how the data come in lately, they've been carrying a kind of a hawk

hello on february 21, 1746, the scottish castle inverse fell, it was captured by jacobite supporters dynasty, who tried to regain the english throne, their leader was prince charles' grandson, allegedly the second overthrown back in 1688 as a result of a glorious revolution. he was supported by the scottish irish clans, who did not want to obey london, and charles received money and weapons from france

market will go by the way , we are coming off the first down week for the year a red hot start to the year. inversehe down week for 2023 bond yields and borrowing costs keep going up. inflation does remain red hot. 10-year treasury ticking up 3.73%. up about 10 basis points from last week. that means mortgage costs and car loans are likely to rise a bit in the days and weeks ahead. something to pay attention to if you want to borrow a big chunk of money goldman sachs ceo out with interesting comments and another cryptocurrency exchange getting attention. pippa stevens is here with that. >>> brian, gooldman sachs ceo says he wishes he made the decision to slash jobs sooner rather than later. david solomon told a private gathering of executives he takes responsibility for not being more aggressive in slowing hiring and reducing head count last year adding that every bond in his body was telling him to do so. goldman announced 3200 jobs cut. >>> nikola is working on hydrogen plants for the trucks in canada. nikola is working to have fuel for 7,500 sttrucks by 2026. >>> the s.e.c. told the crypto firm

here they are trying to rally around the whirlwind because the political influence in russia today is inverselyeans political influence, that's why prigozhina kadyrov got that kind of influence, because they all have different reasons putin is close enough. but this , first of all, concerns the exclusion of the top. as for the population, there is no flattening around erora for many reasons , because, again, the putin regime, in principle, differs from the slavic and hitler regimes in that - firstly, there are no ideologies that pay, secondly, there is no mobilization resource , i will introduce not mobilization for war, but in the whole state of social mobilization , there is no such resource because there is no party, no, no analogy with the nazi party there is no party or communist party in putin's russia, that is, the country is based on completely different economic, social, and ideological spiritual foundations, so there is no unity around the führer today in russia , what about such caricature figures as the bear mentioned there and further well, putin needs miliev to exclude a person wh

that said, today is the actual inversely, it's friday here, it's friday morning. people are not going to school today, people are not going to work. they're working from home because there's an expectation that something will happen. there's been an expectation all week, and something hasn't happened all week. there's a little bit of action in the south in the east, it's not that the russians are doing anything, it's certainly not that grand offensive that people had been predicting for sometime. however, this is just a date, it's the one year anniversary. a lot of ukrainians will tell you, this is the ninth anniversary of the russian invasion of crimea. they remain as determined as resolute to see this to the end. >> our friend, ali velshi, takes us off the air tonight. and on that note, i wish you all a very good night. from all of our colleagues across the networks of nbc news, thanks for staying up late with me. i'll see you at the end of tomorrow. ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to war in ukraine: one year later. a morning joe special. this time last year, europe and the world

the yield curve inversion which is most pronounced since 80's. s a selloff in sovereign debt as part of that catch up. francine: the u.k. economy shrank by 0.5% in december. fourth quarter gdp meanwhile was unchanged from the previous quarter. the country narrowly avoided a recession at the end of last year. and he is now is anna macdonald. what does that mean for your investments in the u.k. echo narrowly avoided a recession but is complex and valuations are quite cheap. anna: exactly. we think that we have seen contraction in production and contraction in services as well. i think that was anticipated because we sought train strikes and health strikes in december that didn't lead to some of those issues in december. this translates into our stocks, it really has depended on how well we anticipated the slowdown. we saw that for several retail names in the u.k., for example, they were severely downgraded in terms of earnings expectations over the last year. so this has been a bit of a bounce this year as things have not been as bad as feared. we h

we have to assume less of the yield curve inversion is irrelevant. ness in the leading economic indicator. it's off about 7.5%. annualized pace. this never happened without a recession. what concerns me to hike rate 50 basis points to the march meeting. another batch 67c.p.i. and jobs data. secondly, let's not panic over one set of numbers that while stronger than expected are not necessarily clean given the benchmark rescissions and method logical changes. the u.s. economy contract in the first half of last year, bounced back in the second half. very weak in november and december. and part of what we have seen in january data is bounced back from that abysmal november and december. i would like to see more economic data. i think that the funds most likely raise 25 basis points at the march meeting. guy: then what? do we carry on? where do you see the terminal rate? when do you see the first cut coming through? the data at the moment as you say is bouncing around all over the place. we have a little reacceleration in certain areas of the inflation met

pricing in the rate cuts, we don't think the bond market is actually pricing in that kind of imminent, sharp recession that will come quickly. we think further inversion of the curve as possible and we look to the steepening of the curve as the true sign we are about to enter a recession. katie: great conversation so far. up next, the auction lock, rush of offerings looking to get ahead of buyer rates. this is real yield on bloomberg. ♪ katie: this is bloomberg real yield. time for the auction block where there was a rush of sales ahead of pce with eli lilly, ups and kellogg's raising $14 billion yesterday. volume for the wii comes in around $22 billion, short of what they were asking. in your come a rare debt deal from astrazeneca which was the sole bond pricing there. it's the first deal for the company into years and a possible sign of the higher rate effect on credit, american car center had to pull his sale back on sub prime. we spoke to alliancebernstein about the equity bond correlation breakdown. >> high yield is a risk asset. we are in this good news is bad news environment and bad news is good news and for that, we will keep seeing a positiv

identity politics is the precise inversion ofea the american idea out of many one that becomes one that comes out of one many results, balkanization, atomization, racial strife, divs hatred, division and crazinessd. in the end, in the end, rwanda, no country can survive identity politics.cy we know that we have to stopw it. thbut how do we stop it?ur maybe by remembering that our nation is actually aboutg cn something bigger and by restating clearly and out loudso the principles that bind us to one another. what, in other words, doanot whe have in common? >> that's a realthat i question in fact, that's a question we can't avoid if we want avoid if we wa to continue. >> that's a question thatcontine entrepreneur ramaswamy has spent a great deal of time thinking about through two books, as well as in his latestu venture, which he joins us tonight. to tell us about the big. us ab, >> thanks so much for coming on . thank you. so it does seem like don lemon ,just a cable host, but thisf is a perfect illustration of where identity politics wind up when you stray from universal principles that