but the importance of iowa, though. ying it's more important to watch movement in the polls than in is to watch any one poll? >> what's weird, you want to look at momentum, right? you want to look at who going to perform well relative to expectations. in 1984, gary hart finished second place with 17%. walter mondale had 50%. hart got the momentum somehow because he was only supposed to get 9% instead. seems a big failure for mondaleç candidates really have to watch how they manage expectations. you have voters behaving tactically. if rick santorum looks like he can wins a lot of people think of him favorably in iowa. if he's not viable, they might vote for a gingrich, perry or bachmann instead. voters are smarter than a lot of campaigns give them credit for, where they want to make sure their vote counts. the calculation can change day-to-day and be effected by the polls. >> the point you made there is so key to understanding the viability of ron paul. because if the republican establishment including all of the other ca

when you look at what the turnout is like for the iowa caucuses, gnaw normal year the percentage of iowa voters who will participate in the caucussize usually under 10%. in 2008, hugely interesting year it swelled to 18%. contrast that with the new hampshire primary where in 2008, another year there was a lot of interest you're looking at like 70%. or you go down to south carolina, a state that's even smaller than iowa, but three times as many people participated in the republican primary in south carolina in 2008 as participated in the iowa caucuses in 2008. so it's this really -- the demographics of the people who are there, 60% of the people who participated in the iowa republican caucuses in '08 identified themselves as evangelicals. that's a staggering number i don't think is even representative of what the republican party in iowa is. so that's the universe you're dealing with. and then you've got -- you're rick santorum. you're at 10%. you're trying to distinguish yourself on the christian right. here's this guy that ran for governor, bob vander plaat sechlt, he's the key to the c

walker bush winning the iowa caucuses but reagan won the nomination. r 5. what do you make of it? >> bill clinton didn't win the iowa caucuses in 1992 either. so i don't think that that's necessarily the reason that iowa is starting to look like an anachronistic choice to be the first. i think what erin said is more important. this is a very unrepresentative group of voters. and it's also a form of voting that is not representative of the rest of the country. so i think, particularly in the republican party, however, it's a chance for the evangelical wing of the party to be heard, because they are just so dominant. and, again, is that going to help them with independents going forward? would the person who can win that group of voters be the most electable? probably not. >> erin, i'm glad that joy-ann brought it up, because this year it seems like the evangelical community has not coalesced around a single candidate. >> they can't. but, you know, some of the candidates are trying really hard to get that vote. i was in iowa just this past weekend, and mi

here's the article headline, "iowa the over."this year the idea of iowa in presidential politics will probably die." joy, do you buy into that? >> the thing with iowa, it rewards the kind of politicking that is less and less a part of campaigns. it rewards the passion of getting people to caucus for two hours, and yeah, it's demographically unrepresentative. so i think in a lot of ways, iowa is an anachronism, and if mike huckabee is any guide, it tends to nominate somebody who tends to go on to then not win the nomination. not always, but it did recently. >> erin, is this a conversation we have every four years, or is there something different about it this year? >> it's been increasing over the last couple of campaigns. as you remember, four years ago, there was a push to get some states earlier in the calendar. like florida. and like nevada. this year, florida made a push to come earlier and they won, so candidates are placing more of an effort on florida, like newt gingrich. like mitt romney. but also, arizona has tried reall

the polls show the race closer than ever in iowa. e wheels have completely fallen off one campaign. john nicholls of the "nation" magazine and rick green of the "des moines register" will join me later in the program. and the economy is looking up as the obama administration plans their footh victory in 2012. the president's secretary of agriculture and former iowa governor tom vilsack will join me to talk about what's happening on the ground and what's the landscape for jobs. that's next. you'd have, like, a ton of dollars. but how are they saving you those dollars? a lot of companies might answer "um" or "no comment." then there's esurance. born online, raised by technology, and majors in efficiency. so whatever they save, you save. hassle, time, paperwork, hair-tearing-out, and, yes, especially dollars. esurance. insurance for the modern world. click or call. >>> coming up, more from the campaign trail in iowa with rick green of the "des moines register" and john nicholls of the "nation" magazine. ron paul gets an endorsement from

he's been the "iron man" of the iowa caucuses. it will be interesting to see if it pays off for him. >> joe, it to bring in joe johns. joe, you had another candidate who was in the headlines probably not for reasons he would like and that's newt gingrich, who has fallen in the polls from the time when he started the climb, he looked like a real challenger to mitt romney and is now way down, there languishing in these iowa polls. >> reporter: that's for sure, candy. we're in atlantic, iowa. actually inside a soft drink distribution plant and, you know, i just heard jim talking about the significance of the location. in some ways newt gingrich was just about a month ago the flair of the month if you will and now apparently no longer. really in a competition for third place, he was leading just not very long ago. he got hit by a number of really harsh campaign ad, huge money in fact spent by a political super political action committee that basically does things in the interest of mitt romney and all these ads came flooding on the air

the gop field in a fight to the finish in iowa. but the front-runners now face new and tough questions including mitt romney and his tax returns. >>> plus, will newt gingrich's tearful moments play in the polls? will it help him or hurt him? we have live coverage from iowa in just minutes. >>> times square countdown. two reasons why this year's ni new year's eve could draw one the biggest crowds ever. >>> and extreme weather. a look back at some of the most eye-catching and difficult moments from mother nature of the past year. . good morning to you. welcome to "weekends with alex witt." i'm veronica de la cruz. three days to go, the final stretch of the iowa caucuses is going on right now across the state with gop candidates making a mad dash to rally supporters. let's go live right now to des moines and peter alexander. peter, for many of the candidates, this morning is just the start of what's is sure to be a whirlwind weekend, if you will. >> reporter: yeah, that's right. to give you a sense where the confidence is right now, it

the polls show the race closer than ever in iowa. the wheels have completely fallen off one campaign. john nicholls of the "nation" magazine andiu?o/7yÑ+r/ó rick "des moines register" will join me later in the program. and the economy is looking up as the obama administration plans their footh victory in 2012. the president's secretary of agriculture and former iowa governor tom vilsack will join me to talk about what's happening on the ground and what's the landscape for jobs. that's next. ♪ ooh baby, looks like you need a little help there ♪ ♪ ooh baby, (what) can i do for you today? ♪ [ female announcer ] need help keeping your digestive balance? align can help. only align has bifantis, a patented probiotic that naturally helps maintain your digestive balance. try align to help retain a balanced digestive system. try the #1 gastroenterologist recommended probiotic. align. >>> coming up, more from the campaign trail in iowa with rick green of the "des moines register" and john nicholls of the "nation" magazine. ron paul gets an end

new hampshire being first in the nation primary. >> is iowa, the job of iowa republicans tuesday night a president or win the field? >> probably if mitt romney is if there's not a clear winn and i don't think there will be, we're winning the field. >> okay. senator grassley, always good to see you. is it weird not to be on the trail helping somebody this time? >> yeah, very unusual. but i'll tell you, i learned why i wouldn't run for president is because i followedç bob dole around all over iowa for two different campaigns and i'm not sure i would want to do that. >> weather is nice this time though. >> it is. >> no snow. i appreciate that. good to see you. up next at java joe's the incomparable. we got liz sedoti from the associated press and of course david yepsen. he doesn't live in iowa anymore but he knows the state like everybody else. they're grabbing coffee and getting ready to talk all things iowa. just ahead the president's schedule. still in hawaii. cold here. who can blame him? you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" live from java joe's here in downtown d

let's get to work. >>> the ground game is heating up in iowa. we'll talk with rick green of the "des moines register" on how the race is shaping up. agriculture secretary and former iowa governor tom vilsack will give us the democratic ç perspective. john nicholls is in iowa, and he'll join us with the latest from the trail. >>> ron paul is running away from a controversial pastor who says gays should be put to death. we'll have more on the latest scandal to plague the paul campaign. >>> and with just five days to go, who will come out on top in iowa? msnbc political analyst richard wolff, vice chair of the dncr.t. rybak and dr. catherine hellman will join me to assess the candidates and their chances in iowa and beyond. >> good to have you with us tonight, folks. thanks for watching. the focus tonight on "the ed show" starting out is going to be on rick santorum. now, you know my political persuasion. but i bring this story to you tonight completely objective from iowa. on the stump, rick santorum is impressive. he is well versed, schooled up,

so the difference between an iowa caucus and what you're getting in the state of iowa 3 million people, we get a lot of opportunity for direct interaction with the candidates. and jack kemp talked about that when he was friends with my grandfather, i grew up in buffalo, new york, a great patriot and great american. but congressman kemp gave me a little dissertation when i was about 13 or 14 years old back in 1972 and my grandfather was living talking about how iowa new hampshire were chosen and the ability to vet the candidates. you get to a major media market, you get down to florida, the super tuesday states and you -- the only way you can run a campaign is to run major tv ads, takes a lot of dollars. but in iowa and new hampshire, those are places where someone like.carter could sleep on couches for a year and a half during the time before the iowa caucus back in 75 when he was working very hard to win that nomination, he was able to do it on a face to face basis. we're seeing similar results today with rick santorum where he's worked very hard just by putting himself out there, 350

that's just 4% of the population of iowa. he way, is a state that barack obama then won in 2008 in the general election by ten points. in 2008 the iowa republican caucusgoers picked mike huckabee as their choice for president, huckabee dropped out two months later. in 1980, iowa republicans picked republican george h.w. bush over ronald reagan who eventually won the nomination and the presidency. in 1998 they picked bob dole over george h.w. bush and mr. bush went onto become the republican nominee and win the presidency. iowa's track record at the picking the nominee is at best spotty. joining me now is steve kornacki, news editor. we pay a lot of attention to the election. we must. it's our duty. it's the first. i want to look at a caucusgoer and the kind of questions they are getting now. here is someone who will be at the caucus asking newt gingrich a question about president obama. >> according to the constitution, those that are running for office must be a citizen of the united states. why is mr. obama not have to prove

and the iowa caucuses are all over the news. there's another iowa contest with a $16.5 million prize winning moment that is still waiting. what do you got? restrained driver in a motor vehicle. sir, can you hear me? two, three. just hold the bag. we need a portable x-ray, please! [ nurse ] i'm a nurse. i believe in the power of science and medicine. but i'm also human. and i believe in stacking the deck. [ female announcer ] to nurses everywhere, thank you, from johnson & johnson. >>> lisa sylvester is monitoring some of the other top stories in "the situation room," including a multibillion dollar weapons sale to saudi arabia. >> saudi arabia's making a big holiday purchase. $30 billion worth of f-15 fighter jets. the modernization of another 70 planes. the white house claims the deal will provide a $3.5 billion boost to the u.s. economy and support 50,000 american jobs. >>> amazing video from an ireporter in myanmar. an explosion rocked a residential neighborhood killing 20 and injurying more than 95. police official says the

he jumps all the way up to third place in iowa. e has more than tripled his support in the state since the beginning of the month. santorum has invested just about all of his resources there. this comes at the expense of newt gingrich's who's plummeted to fourth place in the poll. you see him there at 14%. the right-hand column is instructive, down 19 points just since december 7th. rick perry and michele bachmann round out the top six, 11% and 9% respectively. important to note this only recorded republicans. while democrats can't caucus in iowa, they can change their registration right there at the door. santorum attributes his surge in the polls to his relentless efforts in iowa. with limited campaign money, senator santorum visited all 99 counties in the state. >> we've always felt like, you know, we could trust the people of iowa, that when they got down to the time when they were going to seriously look at all the candidates and measure up the people they've had the opportunity to see that we would do well. it's like any small

he will be keeping a close eye on the caucuses in iowa? is live with the president in hon nolulu. doug? >> good morning, uma. like anyone else the president is going to be interested in the result in iowa to figure out who he might be face nothing 2012. the white house said he is in fact going to address democratic caucus goers on tuesday night with a live internet feed. this is before the campaign kicks in high gear next year. in 2012. next week the president is traveling to ohio almost immediately after returning to washington. he will be talking about the economy and jobs. and the weekly address that was released this morning. and the president talks about keeping up pressure on congress. >> i am confident if we work together and you remind folks from washington what is at stake . move the country over and guarantee every american the opportunity they deserve. and peeking of working with congress. unfinished business will carry over in 2012. we thought he would ask congress to raise the debt ceiling and instead they are delaying that a

the polling, the current polling in iowa today. the most recent poll i've seen is by rasmussen, on december 13th. okay? of 750 voters, romney leads by 3 points. paul is in third place. what do you think of that? >> if that happens, okay. that's going to be pretty much the end of the republican nomination bus if romney wins in iowa, he'll win in new hampshire. he will have enough momentum to carry him through. >> is that the best diagnostic -- >> three weeks away! >> john, if ron paul wins, romney wins, if romney wins, romney wins. but if newt wins, romney has problems. >> that rasmussen poll is interesting because he was the first pollster in iowa to pick up the newt surge. he had newt popping up to 32 before anyone else so maybe he is picking up the -- newt's momentum. >> i'm going to put you in charge of watching the rasmussen poll! when we come back, the iraq war is officially over! >>> issue two, out of iraq! >> in the coming days, the last american soldiers will cross the border out of iraq, with honor and with their heads held

i can tell you this, though, if i'm the republican nominee, i'll be back in iowa to win the general electionnd we will win iowa. we'll go to washington with a mandate to make sure we get this country back on the right track. i'm going to be back in iowa. [ applause ] now, when i came today to town, i wanted to make sure that my family got a chance to know something about this corner of iowa. so i brought my son, craig. my son, craig, is the youngest in my family. and he has two boys of his own. but he happens to be with me -- what kind of ice cream? he had butter pecan. tell them something about your family or about your dad that they don't know. my son, craig. >> thank you. it's a privilege to be out here on the campaign trail with my dad, to be back in iowa. it's a pleasure to be out here. i want to tell you a quick story about my dad that you probably haven't heard before. my dad is a very competitive guy. and he's relentless. and we have this little tradition in our family where we do a family triathlon every year. we do a short little swim, a bike race and a run at the end. my wife had

but they make the claim if ron paul wins iowa, this is the beginning of the end of iowa. >> there are people, serious people in the republican party and probably some in the democratic party out here who have been saying exactly the same thing to me this week. >> susan, you agree with that? >> you wanted it short. >> so bachmann wins the ames straw poll and ron paul wins the iowa caucuses can -- >> the one-two punch, that is devastating to our friends in the iowa republican and democratic parties. hey, i like des moines. i like eastern iowa. i like sioux city. and you guys found out, right, john, they have pretty good m mexico food in sioux city? >> the best taco. >> it's a hidden gem of iowa. susan page, john heilemann. thank you both. >>> coming up, is 2012 a year that we're going to see a serious independent run for the presidency, like '68, like '92? it could happen and it could tilt the balance to one of the major party candidates. that's ahead. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. lord of the carry-on. sovereign of the security li

iowa? plus, mitt romney tries to close the deal with iowa voters the final weekend before the caucuses. is he getting too confident now that it's krun f time? and we're digging deeper into ron paul's writings and finding -- sexual harassment victims. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room." we're here in the new cnn election center counting down to the final few days and hours before the first contest of 2012. the new iowa poll out today reenforcing mitt romney's place at the top of the pack, running neck and neck with ron paul. it drives home the bombshell findings of our poll this week, sh showing rick santorum has surged to third place in iowa, while newt gingrich has faded. it's put iting more and more pressure on romney to go for broke in iowa, to try to pull off a win tuesday night. jim acosta is joining us from des moines with more. t >> mitt romney has the big mo and the question heading into this weekend is whether he will win the iowa caucuses without breaking a sweat. ♪ no wonder mitt romney appears to be going all in in iowa. he just might be holding a winning hand.

the great thing about the iowa caucuses and having iowa first on the schedule is that iowa is really the heartbeat of america, the pulse of the people and in terms of republicans, the idea and makeup of the people of iowa are strongly reflective of members of the conservative and republican party. these people in iowa are very hard workers. they love their family and they love their faith and are strong workers and believe in marriage between a man and a woman. and at least on the republican side, it's important for them to go through this process. we have several or a few of the candidates that decided to opt out of the straw poll and now as the candidates have come here and are engaging in the process, it gives the parties time to come into the coffee shops and into their living rooms and speak to them face-to-face and listen to them on where they stand on the issues and listen to what they talk about at the breakfast table or dinner table and take in what they have to say and let the elector at hear what the candidates have to say because the people are the ones who are the bosses

three tickets out of the iowa. t stake for the saner to rupps, basan t saner to -- santorums, bachmanns, rick perrys. who of that group maybe sneaks in and surprises us in a good way? >> well, you know, it really is interesting the way they seem to realize at this point that the person they need to take down is ron paul. and so i think there will be just one slot available for all those four people, and the question is when gingrich and bachmann go after paul, are they chipping into his support? are they reinforcing his support? you know, is there a backlash. >> i totally agree. i always wonder whether attacking paul does anything. it's like i am rubber, you are glue situation. you mention bachmann opinion i want to play a little bit of bachmann talking about being a conservative. i think this is clearly aimed at peeling off some of those ron paul folks. let's play it. >> we're hearing that from some of the candidates on the ground right now, they're cooperating the language of the tea party and yet they're as far f

however, one has to wonder, paul, if the outcome of iowa, how greatly it might influence the first primary to take place in new hampshire. >> well, here is one way it could influence it. we may not see candidates go to new hampshire. iowa doesn't always pick the winner of the nomination, often it does. we may see one, possibly two candidates drop out after the results. that's one way to impact it. a very different electorate in new hampshire. in new hampshire independents play a big role in the primary, get to vote either side. very different electorate. last two primaries on the republican side. four years ago mike huck, the former arkansas governor won here. he did not win in new hampshire. that was john mccain who went on to win the nomination. in 2000, texas governor george w. bush won here. john mccain won in new hampshire but of course bush went on to win the nomination and presidency. different states no doubt about that, fred. >> paul, you say maybe one, maybe two contestants drop out after iowa. mark, one has to wonder when you kind of read the tea leaves whose destiny really does